U.S. stocks in free fall

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CULater
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CULater » Thu Aug 15, 2019 9:48 pm

If interest rates are dropping --- buy, buy! Stock party.
On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Aug 15, 2019 9:52 pm

CULater wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 9:48 pm
If interest rates are dropping --- buy, buy! Stock party.
Nicholas Jasinki said the following in an article in Barron's yesterday.
And today’s volatility aside, stocks have actually tended to do quite well following yield curve inversions. In the last five occurrences since 1978, the S&P 500 has been an average of 13.5% higher a year later, according to data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data. The same holds true on average over two- and three-year periods following an inversion, with the S&P 500 up 14.7% and 16.4%, respectively.
YMMV.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 » Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:03 pm

Personally I would like to see a proper crash and flush so we can begin a new cycle of revival... let's get this over with already! I am tired of the constant news of imminent crash in the media and everywhere else!

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:15 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:03 pm
Personally I would like to see a proper crash and flush so we can begin a new cycle of revival... let's get this over with already! I am tired of the constant news of imminent crash in the media and everywhere else!
You might be waiting a while yet. From 1988-2000, U.S. stocks' maximum drawdown was (only) -17.6%.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

Lee_WSP
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Lee_WSP » Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:31 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:15 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:03 pm
Personally I would like to see a proper crash and flush so we can begin a new cycle of revival... let's get this over with already! I am tired of the constant news of imminent crash in the media and everywhere else!
You might be waiting a while yet. From 1988-2000, U.S. stocks' maximum drawdown was (only) -17.6%.
I am also eagerly awaiting for the big one so we can just get it over with.

1987 was the bear year. It just happened over the course of 3 months. 33.5% drawdown.
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/37740147/ns/b ... r-markets/

Glockenspiel
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Glockenspiel » Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:30 am

Bluce wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:11 pm
Glockenspiel wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:14 am
Stinky wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:16 am
CBS News this morning is reporting:

“Fourth Largest Drop Ever!!!”

Point drop in the Dow, that is.
My biggest pet peeve ever is that you ONLY hear about the points the market dropped. News organizations hardly ever report the percentages, which is really the only thing that matters. And they only report on the Dow, which is probably the worst index to report on because it's price-weighted, not cap-weighted. I suppose they do it because the numbers are the largest for the Dow, making it easier to scare people or get clicks.
I would argue that the majority of TV people don't even know what an index is, and what index point changes mean. (I am speaking of non-financial TV; I would hope at least the financial talking heads would know this). As for "the man on the street"? I bet not 1 out of 20 people know what a stock index really is.

The Dow is the most "important," because it is a familiar term to most people -- but actually the least important as you noted.

The Dow index point total is generally about 10 times the SP, so Dow point movements will roughly be 10 times larger than the SP. LOL, it's just grade school math.

But yes, the percentage change is what really matters.
I agree with everything you just said. Hell, I could ask my wife what the Dow or S&P 500 is, and she'd say... "idk. Some kind of stock thing."

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:58 am

Glockenspiel wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:30 am
I could ask my wife what the Dow or S&P 500 is, and she'd say... "idk. Some kind of stock thing."
Investing using the three fund portfolio eliminates having to know the details. Financial "advisors" over complicate things so they can sell insurance.

bradshaw1965
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bradshaw1965 » Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:35 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:37 pm
bradshaw1965 wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:05 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 4:12 pm
bradshaw1965 wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 4:03 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:31 pm


Since 1950*, 65 year olds in the first-world have been gaining roughly 1 year of life expectancy per decade. Since 65 year olds' current life expectancy is about 19 years, it will take about 260 years at that same rate before their life expectancy reaches 110. And this assumes that there isn't a 'natural' upper-bound limit to life expectancy that would impact this along the way, which there probably is. Unless there are advances made that improve seniors' longevity far beyond anything that's happened yet, we're a very long ways from 110 being normal.

*From 1850-1950, 65 year olds only gained about two years of life expectancy.
110 is way out there, but in the increase in life expectancy people with means are the clear outliers.
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/ ... y-matters/
Definitely, although correlation obviously does not equal causation. There are many potential intervening variables that are actually responsible for the observed differences, as the researchers noted.
While those differences can be chalked up, in part, to healthy behaviors — low-income residents in New York City smoke and drink less, exercise more, and have lower rates of obesity than the poor in other cities — it’s unclear what other factors might contribute to the difference, said David Cutler, the Otto Eckstein Professor of Applied Economics and a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School and the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.
I actually agree with you about significant life extension being very, very unlikely in my lifetime but have had plenty of relatives in their 90's and will plan accordingly.
IIRC, immediate family members' longevity only accounts for about 16% of one's own longevity. It's certainly not nothing, but the 84% is due to other factors.
All this to say, my "planning" is to treat SS as longevity insurance and maximize survivor benefits for my younger spouse. I'll also keep an eye out for longevity insurance private products that are not really available now. I'm not looking at becoming a cyborg or anything.

EnjoyIt
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by EnjoyIt » Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:39 am

Lee_WSP wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:31 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:15 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:03 pm
Personally I would like to see a proper crash and flush so we can begin a new cycle of revival... let's get this over with already! I am tired of the constant news of imminent crash in the media and everywhere else!
You might be waiting a while yet. From 1988-2000, U.S. stocks' maximum drawdown was (only) -17.6%.
I am also eagerly awaiting for the big one so we can just get it over with.

1987 was the bear year. It just happened over the course of 3 months. 33.5% drawdown.
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/37740147/ns/b ... r-markets/
I am waiting also. Currently semi retired and won't pull the plug completely until after the next recession. That is unless this bull market keeps running for another decade.

livesoft
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by livesoft » Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:03 am

livesoft wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:48 pm
EnjoyIt wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:41 pm
What I really want to know is if this is a RBD or are we really in free fall. Too bad the market closed before I even had the chance to think about rebalancing.
It was an RBD for some things. Just because it was an RBD does not mean it won't turn out that we really are in a free fall as well. The two are not mutually exclusive. :twisted:
And that's another nice bounce after the RBD this week. I think I will sell the things I bought the other day in order to get closer to my nominal desired asset allocation.
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

EnjoyIt
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by EnjoyIt » Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:21 am

livesoft wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:03 am
livesoft wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:48 pm
EnjoyIt wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:41 pm
What I really want to know is if this is a RBD or are we really in free fall. Too bad the market closed before I even had the chance to think about rebalancing.
It was an RBD for some things. Just because it was an RBD does not mean it won't turn out that we really are in a free fall as well. The two are not mutually exclusive. :twisted:
And that's another nice bounce after the RBD this week. I think I will sell the things I bought the other day in order to get closer to my nominal desired asset allocation.
Yeah, I missed it because I was out with my family. Can't put a price on family....oh wait, I think I just did :)

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:31 am

EnjoyIt wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:21 am
Yeah, I missed it because I was out with my family. Can't put a price on family....oh wait, I think I just did :)
You should set your buy and sell bots and go out and play.

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid » Sat Aug 17, 2019 2:09 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 9:20 pm
Small Caps are in free fall, Large Caps not so much...

The S&P 600 is just 2% shy of a bear market! In conjunction with the messaging from the bond market I think Large Caps may be next in line...
Large Cap stocks tend to be less volatile than Small Cap stocks, one reason that conservative portfolios concentrate on the larger stocks. If you hold a Total Stock Market Index, you have about 76% in Large Caps, 18% in Mid Caps, and 6% in Small Caps; so you are covered here.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Sat Aug 17, 2019 4:44 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 2:09 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 9:20 pm
Small Caps are in free fall, Large Caps not so much...

The S&P 600 is just 2% shy of a bear market! In conjunction with the messaging from the bond market I think Large Caps may be next in line...
Large Cap stocks tend to be less volatile than Small Cap stocks, one reason that conservative portfolios concentrate on the larger stocks. If you hold a Total Stock Market Index, you have about 76% in Large Caps, 18% in Mid Caps, and 6% in Small Caps; so you are covered here.
When I lacked understanding I used to slice & dice. Now that I understand I'm long VTI; no thinking necessary.

stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 » Sat Aug 17, 2019 5:28 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 2:09 pm
Large Cap stocks tend to be less volatile than Small Cap stocks, one reason that conservative portfolios concentrate on the larger stocks. If you hold a Total Stock Market Index, you have about 76% in Large Caps, 18% in Mid Caps, and 6% in Small Caps; so you are covered here.
The S&P 600 has had superior returns to the S&P 500 over the long haul (25 years of history since 1994), i'm 28% in it and perfectly optimistic it will outperform the S&P 500 given sufficient time. It is suffering a bit due to late cycle risk off sentiment but that will not last forever.

https://www.fool.com/investing/general/ ... p-600.aspx

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid » Sat Aug 17, 2019 7:30 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 5:28 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 2:09 pm
Large Cap stocks tend to be less volatile than Small Cap stocks, one reason that conservative portfolios concentrate on the larger stocks. If you hold a Total Stock Market Index, you have about 76% in Large Caps, 18% in Mid Caps, and 6% in Small Caps; so you are covered here.
The S&P 600 has had superior returns to the S&P 500 over the long haul (25 years of history since 1994), i'm 28% in it and perfectly optimistic it will outperform the S&P 500 given sufficient time. It is suffering a bit due to late cycle risk off sentiment but that will not last forever.

https://www.fool.com/investing/general/ ... p-600.aspx
I think this is a very good bet to make. Though more volatile than Total Stock Market Index, it should produce higher returns over time. I own the iShares S&P 600 Small-Cap ETF and I have been very, very satisfied with this investment. I have an overweight in Mid/Small Cap stocks compared to the Total Stock Market Index as my belief is that Mid/Small Cap has more growth potential over time.
A fool and his money are good for business.

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:01 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 7:30 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 5:28 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 2:09 pm
Large Cap stocks tend to be less volatile than Small Cap stocks, one reason that conservative portfolios concentrate on the larger stocks. If you hold a Total Stock Market Index, you have about 76% in Large Caps, 18% in Mid Caps, and 6% in Small Caps; so you are covered here.
The S&P 600 has had superior returns to the S&P 500 over the long haul (25 years of history since 1994), i'm 28% in it and perfectly optimistic it will outperform the S&P 500 given sufficient time. It is suffering a bit due to late cycle risk off sentiment but that will not last forever.

https://www.fool.com/investing/general/ ... p-600.aspx
I think this is a very good bet to make. Though more volatile than Total Stock Market Index, it should produce higher returns over time. I own the iShares S&P 600 Small-Cap ETF and I have been very, very satisfied with this investment. I have an overweight in Mid/Small Cap stocks compared to the Total Stock Market Index as my belief is that Mid/Small Cap has more growth potential over time.
I prefer the value variant. Unfortunately I only have access to Vanguard‘s CRSP offering at the moment.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:47 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:01 pm
...I only have access to Vanguard‘s CRSP offering at the moment.
CRSP, Crispr Therapeutics AG, is a stock.

rerod
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rerod » Sun Aug 18, 2019 8:57 am

I keep reading "get it over with" and I'm in the same boat holding about 40% vbtlx for years.

But maybe, so many people in the world are now invested in the market that when the talking heads pull the plug and sell to create panic, its just the little blips we've been seeing?

No more free falls because the majority of investors don't stay glued to the ticker tape.

Just a thought

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ruralavalon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ruralavalon » Sun Aug 18, 2019 9:37 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:47 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:01 pm
...I only have access to Vanguard‘s CRSP offering at the moment.
CRSP, Crispr Therapeutics AG, is a stock.
CRSP = Center for Research in Security Prices.

CRSP U.S. Total Market Index is the index used by Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSAX).
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Sun Aug 18, 2019 9:53 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:47 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:01 pm
...I only have access to Vanguard‘s CRSP offering at the moment.
CRSP, Crispr Therapeutics AG, is a stock.
Wrong CRSP, I got out of that one at the peak in May 2018 ;).

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Sun Aug 18, 2019 9:53 am

ruralavalon wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 9:37 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:47 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:01 pm
...I only have access to Vanguard‘s CRSP offering at the moment.
CRSP, Crispr Therapeutics AG, is a stock.
CRSP = Center for Research in Security Prices.

CRSP U.S. Total Market Index is the index used by Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSAX).
I was speaking to the small-cap index which tilts more to mid then the Russell 2000 and S&P600.

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid » Sun Aug 18, 2019 10:08 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:47 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:01 pm
...I only have access to Vanguard‘s CRSP offering at the moment.
CRSP, Crispr Therapeutics AG, is a stock.
Vanguard's Small Value Index products are based upon a CRSP index.
A fool and his money are good for business.

Whakamole
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Whakamole » Sun Aug 18, 2019 11:35 am

nedsaid wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 10:08 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:47 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:01 pm
...I only have access to Vanguard‘s CRSP offering at the moment.
CRSP, Crispr Therapeutics AG, is a stock.
Vanguard's Small Value Index products are based upon a CRSP index.
There are ones that use the S&P index - VIOO, VIOV, VIOG.

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:12 pm

Whakamole wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 11:35 am
nedsaid wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 10:08 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:47 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:01 pm
...I only have access to Vanguard‘s CRSP offering at the moment.
CRSP, Crispr Therapeutics AG, is a stock.
Vanguard's Small Value Index products are based upon a CRSP index.
There are ones that use the S&P index - VIOO, VIOV, VIOG.
True, and I use VIOV personally rather than IJS or SYLV. They like to hide these online and intend for them to be used by institutional investors, and you won't find them in any Vanguard 401k offerings I have seen (where I also hold SCV).

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:25 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 10:08 am
Vanguard's Small Value Index products are based upon a CRSP index.
That would be based on CRSPSCVT. OK got it but it wasn't EZ. :confused
Google's first listing for CRSP is a stock.

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:34 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:25 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 10:08 am
Vanguard's Small Value Index products are based upon a CRSP index.
That would be based on CRSPSCVT. OK got it but it wasn't EZ. :confused
Google's first listing for CRSP is a stock.
The index has CRSP.com at-least.

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid » Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:38 pm

That a boy! Keep the thread going so we have another big rally on Monday!
A fool and his money are good for business.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Sun Aug 18, 2019 6:32 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:38 pm
That a boy! Keep the thread going so we have another big rally on Monday!
I can see the futures and they say S&P +10.50

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ruralavalon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ruralavalon » Mon Aug 19, 2019 4:17 pm

Another day of up fall :) .
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

rerod
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rerod » Mon Aug 19, 2019 8:02 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:38 pm
That a boy! Keep the thread going so we have another big rally on Monday!
Agreed! The world is watching this thread!

Independent George
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Independent George » Mon Aug 19, 2019 8:38 pm

Everybody keeps waiting for The Big One, like 2008. The thing is... we've actually had several corrections since the last Big One. It's not obvious from due to how it's grown since then, but we had a 15% drop from the highs in 2011, a 10% drop from 2015-2016, and then the 19% drop at the end of 2018 (20% if you include intraday trading, which passes the arbitrary threshold for a bear market).

That's not so say we might not have another Big Crash soon... but it seems just as likely that we might just might have some more volatility while continuing the upward trend. Or maybe it stagnates for a while. Who knows? Certainly not I. The only thing you can do is keep on earning, and keep on saving.

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Mon Aug 19, 2019 8:59 pm

Independent George wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 8:38 pm
Everybody keeps waiting for The Big One, like 2008. The thing is... we've actually had several corrections since the last Big One. It's not obvious from due to how it's grown since then, but we had a 15% drop from the highs in 2011, a 10% drop from 2015-2016, and then the 19% drop at the end of 2018 (20% if you include intraday trading, which passes the arbitrary threshold for a bear market).

That's not so say we might not have another Big Crash soon... but it seems just as likely that we might just might have some more volatility while continuing the upward trend. Or maybe it stagnates for a while. Who knows? Certainly not I. The only thing you can do is keep on earning, and keep on saving.
Good points. I feel like 2000 and 2008 have created an illusion that bear markets are a rapid decline, 40-50%, and then a swift bounce back a few years later. We could just be bouncing around 2800 and 3000 for the next decade or two, which would be just as painful (and frankly worse for accumulators). Think about Total International which is basically flat for the last 8 years... that is just as likely of a reality for us as a sudden Big One.

lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog » Mon Aug 19, 2019 9:04 pm

A guided meditation for when the stock market is falling, by JL collins.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOGU94eL07E
VT, BNDW and chill.

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky » Mon Aug 19, 2019 9:30 pm

HawkeyePierce wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:46 am
I'd like to announce my new investment strategy: I'll only be in the markets on Tuesdays. :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag

Image

I can't lose!

h/t https://www.wsj.com/articles/welcome-to ... bc6f48c13d
Remember - Tomorrow is Make-Big-Money Tuesday!
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Mon Aug 19, 2019 10:49 pm

Stinky wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 9:30 pm

Remember - Tomorrow is Make-Big-Money Tuesday!
Sounds like a "can't lose" strategy. :) :moneybag

DeadPoets
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by DeadPoets » Tue Aug 20, 2019 2:06 am

rerod wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 8:57 am
I keep reading "get it over with" and I'm in the same boat holding about 40% vbtlx for years.

But maybe, so many people in the world are now invested in the market that when the talking heads pull the plug and sell to create panic, its just the little blips we've been seeing?

No more free falls because the majority of investors don't stay glued to the ticker tape.

Just a thought
Has more to do with computers and algorithms.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ReformedSpender » Tue Aug 20, 2019 5:04 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 8:59 pm

We could just be bouncing around 2800 and 3000 for the next decade or two, which would be just as painful (and frankly worse for accumulators).
How so? Accumulators would be fortunate if such an event unfolded
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

rerod
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rerod » Tue Aug 20, 2019 5:55 am

DeadPoets wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 2:06 am
rerod wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 8:57 am
I keep reading "get it over with" and I'm in the same boat holding about 40% vbtlx for years.

But maybe, so many people in the world are now invested in the market that when the talking heads pull the plug and sell to create panic, its just the little blips we've been seeing?

No more free falls because the majority of investors don't stay glued to the ticker tape.

Just a thought
Has more to do with computers and algorithms.
Good point. Thanks DeadPoets

But I still think it's just the amount of people who have realized the market is the only game in town and are now invested but arent listening to the noise or are able to, that keep the markets more stable. More people who have the stay the course attitude and have confidence in humility.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Tue Aug 20, 2019 7:40 am

ReformedSpender wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 5:04 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 8:59 pm

We could just be bouncing around 2800 and 3000 for the next decade or two, which would be just as painful (and frankly worse for accumulators).
How so? Accumulators would be fortunate if such an event unfolded
There are also the dividends that are taxed as long term gains. People often forget about dividends when figuring returns.

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ruralavalon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ruralavalon » Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:14 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 7:40 am
ReformedSpender wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 5:04 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 8:59 pm

We could just be bouncing around 2800 and 3000 for the next decade or two, which would be just as painful (and frankly worse for accumulators).
How so? Accumulators would be fortunate if such an event unfolded
There are also the dividends that are taxed as long term gains. People often forget about dividends when figuring returns.
Investors whose attention is glued to daily or even hourly rsports about the stock market are always ignoring the dividends.

Total return (with dividends reinvested) of Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSAX) is currently up 17.91% year to date, and up 3.29% over the last 12 months.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:19 am

ruralavalon wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:14 am
Investors whose attention is glued to daily or even hourly rsports about the stock market are always ignoring the dividends.

Total return (with dividends reinvested) of Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSAX) is currently up 17.91% year to date.
Traders must not care about taxes. Holding stock for less than a year generate regular income type taxes.
Last edited by J G Bankerton on Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:49 am, edited 1 time in total.

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:24 am

ReformedSpender wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 5:04 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 8:59 pm

We could just be bouncing around 2800 and 3000 for the next decade or two, which would be just as painful (and frankly worse for accumulators).
How so? Accumulators would be fortunate if such an event unfolded
I meant worse than a large drop followed by a rebound back to a value that would yield say 4% growth relative to today.

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid » Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:27 am

rerod wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 8:02 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:38 pm
That a boy! Keep the thread going so we have another big rally on Monday!
Agreed! The world is watching this thread!
I have joked quite a bit here that this thread is a pretty good contrary indicator. I fantasize that I can get a stock rally going by posting on this pessimistic thread. In real life, you want pessimism in the markets as you need pessimists who can change their minds becoming optimists and buyers. Bull markets end at the point of maximum optimism.
Last edited by nedsaid on Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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260chrisb
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US Stocks in Free Fall thread

Post by 260chrisb » Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:42 am

[merged into the thread it references - moderator prudent]

This thread is now eight years and 11693 posts old!! I find this odd and somewhat humorous and at the same time annoying for some reason but the real question is; how does one follow this and why would we need this thing to pop up every time the market goes down? :annoyed

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:44 am

nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:27 am
rerod wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 8:02 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:38 pm
That a boy! Keep the thread going so we have another big rally on Monday!
Agreed! The world is watching this thread!
I have joked quite a bit here that this thread is a pretty good contrary indicator. I fantasize that I can get a stock rally going by posting on this pessimistic thread. In real life, you want pessimism in the markets as you need pessimists who can change their minds becoming optimists and buyers. Bull markets end at the point of maximum pessimism.
I thought bull markets end at the point of maximum optimism, when everyone is in the market as much as they are ever going to be comfortable? Maximum pessimism sounds like a recipe for a continuing bull market; climbing that wall of worry.

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid » Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:53 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:44 am
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:27 am
rerod wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 8:02 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:38 pm
That a boy! Keep the thread going so we have another big rally on Monday!
Agreed! The world is watching this thread!
I have joked quite a bit here that this thread is a pretty good contrary indicator. I fantasize that I can get a stock rally going by posting on this pessimistic thread. In real life, you want pessimism in the markets as you need pessimists who can change their minds becoming optimists and buyers. Bull markets end at the point of maximum pessimism.
I thought bull markets end at the point of maximum optimism, when everyone is in the market as much as they are ever going to be comfortable? Maximum pessimism sounds like a recipe for a continuing bull market; climbing that wall of worry.
You are absolutely right. I meant "maximum optimism" and I typed "maximum pessimism." How did I do that? Yes, bull markets end with maximum optimism, pretty much markets run out of buyers so then markets have nothing to do from there but fall. I corrected my post. Thanks for catching that.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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nedsaid
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Re: US Stocks in Free Fall thread

Post by nedsaid » Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:59 am

It is our way of having fun on the forum. I like to post there to illustrate that sentiment is a very good contrary indicator. Quite often when the thread pops up after stocks take a dip, the market will rally. Obviously, a thread on Bogleheads isn't going to move the markets but I have had a lot of fun trying. If I want the markets to go up, I just post on the Free Fall thread. In fact, got a bit annoyed with the "Soar" thread but we have had fun there as well. Next, someone will start a "Gee Whiz, stocks didn't do much today" thread. It is also a place we can wonder aloud why the markets are doing what they are doing and sometimes there is interesting discussion.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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dougger5
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Re: US Stocks in Free Fall thread

Post by dougger5 » Tue Aug 20, 2019 11:04 am

Following is easy - just go to the thread, click on the little wrench icon, and select "subscribe topic." But I'm not certain why you would want to, as just seeing it listed at/near the top occasionally seems to bring you some level of discomfort.
"I've been ionized, but I'm okay now." -Buckaroo Banzai

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jeffyscott
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Re: US Stocks in Free Fall thread

Post by jeffyscott » Tue Aug 20, 2019 11:13 am

All that is needed now is a thread about the US stocks continue to soar thread.

And then when this one and that one have thousands of posts, someone can start a thread asking: "why do we need a thread about the thread about US stocks in free fall/continue to soar... :D :beer
Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy. - John C. Bogle

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