U.S. stocks in free fall

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cusetownusa
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by cusetownusa » Fri Aug 09, 2019 9:37 am

LiterallyIronic wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 9:20 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:36 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:15 pm
So don't be so negative. Another bull market will come.
When did this one end?
If you ask me, it ended January 2018. Dow Jones is currently lower than it was then and has spent more time below the January 2018 level than above it. A bull market, to me, isn't "whatever happens between 20% dips." It needs to be actively and continually increasing at a good clip for me to consider it a bull market. This is a stagnant market.

The Dow is currently at 26,222. Imagine if it stayed at exactly 26,222, never going up or down even one point, for the next 100 years. Are you going to be partying about the 100-year bull market? I'm not.
I agree...20% is just an arbitrary number...didn't it just drop last year by like 19.5% or something? not much difference bewteen 19.x% and 20%.

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Fri Aug 09, 2019 10:32 am

cusetownusa wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 9:37 am


I agree...20% is just an arbitrary number...didn't it just drop last year by like 19.5% or something? not much difference bewteen 19.x% and 20%.
Regardless of how arbitrary it is, it set a new high since then, resetting the bull by that standard anyways.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Aug 09, 2019 10:46 am

cusetownusa wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 9:37 am
LiterallyIronic wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 9:20 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:36 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:15 pm
So don't be so negative. Another bull market will come.
When did this one end?
If you ask me, it ended January 2018. Dow Jones is currently lower than it was then and has spent more time below the January 2018 level than above it. A bull market, to me, isn't "whatever happens between 20% dips." It needs to be actively and continually increasing at a good clip for me to consider it a bull market. This is a stagnant market.

The Dow is currently at 26,222. Imagine if it stayed at exactly 26,222, never going up or down even one point, for the next 100 years. Are you going to be partying about the 100-year bull market? I'm not.
I agree...20% is just an arbitrary number...didn't it just drop last year by like 19.5% or something? not much difference bewteen 19.x% and 20%.
If you look at intra-day prices, the drop was like -19.9%.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

JiggyWillis
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by JiggyWillis » Fri Aug 09, 2019 11:55 am

So we had a Baby Bear and have recovered to slightly new highs and now Mr. Market can't decide what to do. Sounds like we are all in the same boat and nobody knows nothin. But the financial media will continue to refer to "the longest economic expansion in history" because it can be used to support any argument. Bulls: "look how great things have been! We have historically low unemployment and everybody's got money to spend so things will keep on rolling!" Bears: "Growth is slowing, debt is piling up and we are way overdue for a reversion to the mean; get out now!"

More importantly, should I have the beef or tuna carpaccio or the crab cake appetizer before the ribeye tonight?

H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town » Fri Aug 09, 2019 11:58 am

Hello free fall thread, my old friend. :|

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:07 pm

H-Town wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 11:58 am
Hello free fall thread, my old friend. :|
This is almost a soaring market considering the "news". I'm watching a CNBC talking head as I type; he says buy the dip.

retiringwhen
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by retiringwhen » Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:27 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:07 pm
H-Town wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 11:58 am
Hello free fall thread, my old friend. :|
This is almost a soaring market considering the "news". I'm watching a CNBC talking head as I type; he says buy the dip.
looks a lot of folks are doing just that.

minimalistmarc
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by minimalistmarc » Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:39 pm

CULater wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:13 am
Dr. Bernstein advised retirees "if you've won the game, then stop playing", meaning that you should hold a minimal allocation to stocks. I hope you've done that.
Why stop playing if you enjoy it, or want to leave a large inheritance to family/charity?

I’ll never have a minimal allocation to stocks. I could maybe see myself going 70 -80%

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:44 pm

minimalistmarc wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:39 pm
CULater wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:13 am
Dr. Bernstein advised retirees "if you've won the game, then stop playing", meaning that you should hold a minimal allocation to stocks. I hope you've done that.
Why stop playing if you enjoy it, or want to leave a large inheritance to family/charity?

I’ll never have a minimal allocation to stocks. I could maybe see myself going 70 -80%
The last ~50 years of data don't suggest that it's prudent for a long-term investor to virtually ever have lower than a 30% allocation to stocks.

The only way that Bernstein's recommendation could make any sense is if the investor has egregiously over-saved. But even in that instance, they can easily afford to take on at least a 30% allocation to stocks.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Fri Aug 09, 2019 1:25 pm

minimalistmarc wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:39 pm
CULater wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:13 am
Dr. Bernstein advised retirees "if you've won the game, then stop playing", meaning that you should hold a minimal allocation to stocks. I hope you've done that.
Why stop playing if you enjoy it, or want to leave a large inheritance to family/charity?

I’ll never have a minimal allocation to stocks. I could maybe see myself going 70 -80%
You must have a pension to rely on . . . ?

BanquetBeer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by BanquetBeer » Fri Aug 09, 2019 2:05 pm

I think you can have high stock allocation if you are flexible. At some point the delta on return will get you to the same $ in bonds with a lot more stocks to play with. My horizon is at least 50 years and probably 90 for the funds I hope to pass on.

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Fri Aug 09, 2019 2:33 pm

BanquetBeer wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 2:05 pm
I think you can have high stock allocation if you are flexible. At some point the delta on return will get you to the same $ in bonds with a lot more stocks to play with. My horizon is at least 50 years and probably 90 for the funds I hope to pass on.
I guess one can be brave when your time horizon is a half-century -- or you have a fat pension waiting for you.

I will have no source of retirement income besides my portfolio (and SS) and during the last bear -- when my AA was 65/35 -- I watched the value of my house disappear in a year and a half, never knowing when or where the bottom was until after the fact. I was in my late 50s at the time.

It's a very sobering thing, which drags on for a long time -- and it could have dragged on a lot longer. If it's just play money, then it doesn't matter.

minimalistmarc
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by minimalistmarc » Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:30 pm

Bluce wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 1:25 pm
minimalistmarc wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:39 pm
CULater wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:13 am
Dr. Bernstein advised retirees "if you've won the game, then stop playing", meaning that you should hold a minimal allocation to stocks. I hope you've done that.
Why stop playing if you enjoy it, or want to leave a large inheritance to family/charity?

I’ll never have a minimal allocation to stocks. I could maybe see myself going 70 -80%
You must have a pension to rely on . . . ?
I will do when I retire but that’s around 15 years away

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ » Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:30 pm

BanquetBeer wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 2:05 pm
My horizon is at least 50 years and probably 90 for the funds I hope to pass on.
Heh, you're the first 6-year old I've seen on this site. Nice!
The J stands for Jay

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:35 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:30 pm
BanquetBeer wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 2:05 pm
My horizon is at least 50 years and probably 90 for the funds I hope to pass on.
Heh, you're the first 6-year old I've seen on this site. Nice!
Read that again :sharebeer .

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AerialWombat
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AerialWombat » Fri Aug 09, 2019 7:23 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:07 pm
H-Town wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 11:58 am
Hello free fall thread, my old friend. :|
This is almost a soaring market considering the "news". I'm watching a CNBC talking head as I type; he says buy the dip.
I watched some of Jim Cramer’s “Mad Money” today, for the first time ever. When I tuned in, he had just started talking about the importance of indexing. He was encouraging everybody to stick to a low cost S&P500 index fund as their core holding, and that they shouldn’t be in anything but such low cost index funds in their retirement accounts. Only the small part of their portfolio that is their “mad money” should be put into individual stocks. He also said that people that don’t have the time to do their “homework” on individual stocks should just index.

I was blown away to hear him saying these things.
“Life doesn’t come with a warranty.” -Michael LeBoeuf

Independent George
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Independent George » Fri Aug 09, 2019 7:32 pm

AerialWombat wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 7:23 pm
I watched some of Jim Cramer’s “Mad Money” today, for the first time ever. When I tuned in, he had just started talking about the importance of indexing. He was encouraging everybody to stick to a low cost S&P500 index fund as their core holding, and that they shouldn’t be in anything but such low cost index funds in their retirement accounts. Only the small part of their portfolio that is their “mad money” should be put into individual stocks. He also said that people that don’t have the time to do their “homework” on individual stocks should just index.

I was blown away to hear him saying these things.
He's been saying that for years.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Aug 09, 2019 8:03 pm

AerialWombat wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 7:23 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:07 pm
H-Town wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 11:58 am
Hello free fall thread, my old friend. :|
This is almost a soaring market considering the "news". I'm watching a CNBC talking head as I type; he says buy the dip.
I watched some of Jim Cramer’s “Mad Money” today, for the first time ever. When I tuned in, he had just started talking about the importance of indexing. He was encouraging everybody to stick to a low cost S&P500 index fund as their core holding, and that they shouldn’t be in anything but such low cost index funds in their retirement accounts. Only the small part of their portfolio that is their “mad money” should be put into individual stocks. He also said that people that don’t have the time to do their “homework” on individual stocks should just index.

I was blown away to hear him saying these things.
He has been saying that for awhile, ever sense his pump & dump allegations.
http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/j ... promotion/
[OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek]

Prahasaurus
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Prahasaurus » Mon Aug 12, 2019 7:36 am

Buckle up, people. Gonna be another wild ride today.

Also, keep an eye on Kashmir. This is the kind of conflict that can spiral out of control very fast, with terrible implications. Especially with little US involvement (or even understanding of the issue at the highest levels). I know this seems a long way from markets, but as someone who travels to the region on occasion, and who knows a bit about what is happening now, we are getting close to a regional war between Pakistan and India. This seems to be all happening under the radar, but it’s potential to move markets (to say nothing of the possible catastrophe of war, which dwarfs all else) should not be underestimated.

Meanwhile, in Hong Kong, we have another major flash point. I think this will be contained, as it’s still an internal matter. But US support of HK’s democracy movement would definitely be viewed as provocative, and China would probably strike back economically. Hello, falling Yuan. But again, there are more important issues in play here than just stock price movements.

Stay safe everyone!

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:38 am

Prahasaurus wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 7:36 am
Buckle up, people. Gonna be another wild ride today.

Also, keep an eye on Kashmir.

Meanwhile, in Hong Kong,...
Stay safe everyone!
Back in the day when I was in grade school we had fire drills and nuclear blast drills. We used to go into the hallway, sit and put our hands over our bowed heads. Every time I heard a siren I would look for Russian bombers. Fallout shelters were in every town and many people built their own. The world problems today are only economic for the US of A. There is a big difference between paying more for an iPhone and fear of dying every time a siren went off.

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oldzey
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by oldzey » Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:59 pm

Duck and cover!
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:02 pm

Short and cover (later)!

Glockenspiel
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Glockenspiel » Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:06 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:30 pm
BanquetBeer wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 2:05 pm
My horizon is at least 50 years and probably 90 for the funds I hope to pass on.
Heh, you're the first 6-year old I've seen on this site. Nice!
Meh. I think he thinks that by the time we get that old, the average human will live to 110+.

H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town » Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:20 pm

oldzey wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:59 pm
Duck and cover!
Sell bonds and buy stock. Just don't incur any capital gain.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:31 pm

Glockenspiel wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:06 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:30 pm
BanquetBeer wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 2:05 pm
My horizon is at least 50 years and probably 90 for the funds I hope to pass on.
Heh, you're the first 6-year old I've seen on this site. Nice!
Meh. I think he thinks that by the time we get that old, the average human will live to 110+.
Since 1950*, 65 year olds in the first-world have been gaining roughly 1 year of life expectancy per decade. Since 65 year olds' current life expectancy is about 19 years, it will take about 260 years at that same rate before their life expectancy reaches 110. And this assumes that there isn't a 'natural' upper-bound limit to life expectancy that would impact this along the way, which there probably is. Unless there are advances made that improve seniors' longevity far beyond anything that's happened yet, we're a very long ways from 110 being normal.

*From 1850-1950, 65 year olds only gained about two years of life expectancy.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

jrbdmb
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jrbdmb » Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:40 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:07 pm
H-Town wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 11:58 am
Hello free fall thread, my old friend. :|
This is almost a soaring market considering the "news". I'm watching a CNBC talking head as I type; he says buy the dip.
This has happened often enough recently that I fear that it's time for Mr. Market to shows us that buying the dip doesn't always work.

livesoft
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by livesoft » Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:58 pm

Last week's RBD dip is long over and the next one hasn't happened yet. You have to wait for it.
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bradshaw1965
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bradshaw1965 » Mon Aug 12, 2019 4:03 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:31 pm
Glockenspiel wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:06 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:30 pm
BanquetBeer wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 2:05 pm
My horizon is at least 50 years and probably 90 for the funds I hope to pass on.
Heh, you're the first 6-year old I've seen on this site. Nice!
Meh. I think he thinks that by the time we get that old, the average human will live to 110+.
Since 1950*, 65 year olds in the first-world have been gaining roughly 1 year of life expectancy per decade. Since 65 year olds' current life expectancy is about 19 years, it will take about 260 years at that same rate before their life expectancy reaches 110. And this assumes that there isn't a 'natural' upper-bound limit to life expectancy that would impact this along the way, which there probably is. Unless there are advances made that improve seniors' longevity far beyond anything that's happened yet, we're a very long ways from 110 being normal.

*From 1850-1950, 65 year olds only gained about two years of life expectancy.
110 is way out there, but in the increase in life expectancy people with means are the clear outliers.
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/ ... y-matters/

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Aug 12, 2019 4:12 pm

bradshaw1965 wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 4:03 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:31 pm
Glockenspiel wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:06 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:30 pm
BanquetBeer wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 2:05 pm
My horizon is at least 50 years and probably 90 for the funds I hope to pass on.
Heh, you're the first 6-year old I've seen on this site. Nice!
Meh. I think he thinks that by the time we get that old, the average human will live to 110+.
Since 1950*, 65 year olds in the first-world have been gaining roughly 1 year of life expectancy per decade. Since 65 year olds' current life expectancy is about 19 years, it will take about 260 years at that same rate before their life expectancy reaches 110. And this assumes that there isn't a 'natural' upper-bound limit to life expectancy that would impact this along the way, which there probably is. Unless there are advances made that improve seniors' longevity far beyond anything that's happened yet, we're a very long ways from 110 being normal.

*From 1850-1950, 65 year olds only gained about two years of life expectancy.
110 is way out there, but in the increase in life expectancy people with means are the clear outliers.
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/ ... y-matters/
Definitely, although correlation obviously does not equal causation. There are many potential intervening variables that are actually responsible for the observed differences, as the researchers noted.
While those differences can be chalked up, in part, to healthy behaviors — low-income residents in New York City smoke and drink less, exercise more, and have lower rates of obesity than the poor in other cities — it’s unclear what other factors might contribute to the difference, said David Cutler, the Otto Eckstein Professor of Applied Economics and a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School and the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Mon Aug 12, 2019 4:17 pm

jrbdmb wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:40 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:07 pm
H-Town wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 11:58 am
Hello free fall thread, my old friend. :|
This is almost a soaring market considering the "news". I'm watching a CNBC talking head as I type; he says buy the dip.
This has happened often enough recently that I fear that it's time for Mr. Market to shows us that buying the dip doesn't always work.
On August 5th I bought VTI at 144, that buy is up 2.13%. I hope VTI stays above 143 until September 1st, I'm all dipped out for August.

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky » Mon Aug 12, 2019 4:47 pm

HawkeyePierce wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:46 am
I'd like to announce my new investment strategy: I'll only be in the markets on Tuesdays. :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag

Image

I can't lose!

h/t https://www.wsj.com/articles/welcome-to ... bc6f48c13d
Tomorrow is Make-Big-Money Tuesday!
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town » Mon Aug 12, 2019 4:57 pm

Stinky wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 4:47 pm
Tomorrow is Make-Big-Money Tuesday!
Are you gonna sell it all? :mrgreen: :dollar :moneybag

bradshaw1965
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bradshaw1965 » Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:05 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 4:12 pm
bradshaw1965 wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 4:03 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:31 pm
Glockenspiel wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:06 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:30 pm


Heh, you're the first 6-year old I've seen on this site. Nice!
Meh. I think he thinks that by the time we get that old, the average human will live to 110+.
Since 1950*, 65 year olds in the first-world have been gaining roughly 1 year of life expectancy per decade. Since 65 year olds' current life expectancy is about 19 years, it will take about 260 years at that same rate before their life expectancy reaches 110. And this assumes that there isn't a 'natural' upper-bound limit to life expectancy that would impact this along the way, which there probably is. Unless there are advances made that improve seniors' longevity far beyond anything that's happened yet, we're a very long ways from 110 being normal.

*From 1850-1950, 65 year olds only gained about two years of life expectancy.
110 is way out there, but in the increase in life expectancy people with means are the clear outliers.
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/ ... y-matters/
Definitely, although correlation obviously does not equal causation. There are many potential intervening variables that are actually responsible for the observed differences, as the researchers noted.
While those differences can be chalked up, in part, to healthy behaviors — low-income residents in New York City smoke and drink less, exercise more, and have lower rates of obesity than the poor in other cities — it’s unclear what other factors might contribute to the difference, said David Cutler, the Otto Eckstein Professor of Applied Economics and a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School and the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.
I actually agree with you about significant life extension being very, very unlikely in my lifetime but have had plenty of relatives in their 90's and will plan accordingly.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:37 pm

bradshaw1965 wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:05 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 4:12 pm
bradshaw1965 wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 4:03 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:31 pm
Glockenspiel wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:06 pm


Meh. I think he thinks that by the time we get that old, the average human will live to 110+.
Since 1950*, 65 year olds in the first-world have been gaining roughly 1 year of life expectancy per decade. Since 65 year olds' current life expectancy is about 19 years, it will take about 260 years at that same rate before their life expectancy reaches 110. And this assumes that there isn't a 'natural' upper-bound limit to life expectancy that would impact this along the way, which there probably is. Unless there are advances made that improve seniors' longevity far beyond anything that's happened yet, we're a very long ways from 110 being normal.

*From 1850-1950, 65 year olds only gained about two years of life expectancy.
110 is way out there, but in the increase in life expectancy people with means are the clear outliers.
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/ ... y-matters/
Definitely, although correlation obviously does not equal causation. There are many potential intervening variables that are actually responsible for the observed differences, as the researchers noted.
While those differences can be chalked up, in part, to healthy behaviors — low-income residents in New York City smoke and drink less, exercise more, and have lower rates of obesity than the poor in other cities — it’s unclear what other factors might contribute to the difference, said David Cutler, the Otto Eckstein Professor of Applied Economics and a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School and the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.
I actually agree with you about significant life extension being very, very unlikely in my lifetime but have had plenty of relatives in their 90's and will plan accordingly.
IIRC, immediate family members' longevity only accounts for about 16% of one's own longevity. It's certainly not nothing, but the 84% is due to other factors.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:00 pm

jrbdmb wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:40 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:07 pm
H-Town wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 11:58 am
Hello free fall thread, my old friend. :|
This is almost a soaring market considering the "news". I'm watching a CNBC talking head as I type; he says buy the dip.
This has happened often enough recently that I fear that it's time for Mr. Market to shows us that buying the dip doesn't always work.
I thought this for the past few years, but now I don't think it will ever be different this time. Gonna be this way forever.

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AnalogKid22
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Location: Babylon, but I'd love to spend a night in Zion

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AnalogKid22 » Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:23 am

Doom&Gloom wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:00 pm
jrbdmb wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:40 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:07 pm
H-Town wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 11:58 am
Hello free fall thread, my old friend. :|
This is almost a soaring market considering the "news". I'm watching a CNBC talking head as I type; he says buy the dip.
This has happened often enough recently that I fear that it's time for Mr. Market to shows us that buying the dip doesn't always work.
I thought this for the past few years, but now I don't think it will ever be different this time. Gonna be this way forever.
And “buy the dip” doesn’t mean you have to go all in. If you DCA, then you buy the dip anyway.

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky » Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:07 am

Stinky wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 4:47 pm
HawkeyePierce wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:46 am
I'd like to announce my new investment strategy: I'll only be in the markets on Tuesdays. :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag

Image

I can't lose!

h/t https://www.wsj.com/articles/welcome-to ... bc6f48c13d
Tomorrow is Make-Big-Money Tuesday!
The Tuesday indicator works again!! (at least in the first 40 minutes of trading)

S&P currently up 41 points.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

jebmke
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jebmke » Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:13 am

Stinky wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:07 am
S&P currently up 41 points.
due to major blinkage on trade
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:19 am

Which thread are we in today? :confused :confused

Jags4186
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Jags4186 » Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:21 am

Bluce wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:19 am
Which thread are we in today? :confused :confused
I should start a thread “US Stocks In Period Of Mediocre Growth Since January 2018”.

GoldenFinch
Posts: 1877
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by GoldenFinch » Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:23 am

Stinky wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:07 am
Stinky wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 4:47 pm
HawkeyePierce wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:46 am
I'd like to announce my new investment strategy: I'll only be in the markets on Tuesdays. :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag

Image

I can't lose!

h/t https://www.wsj.com/articles/welcome-to ... bc6f48c13d
Tomorrow is Make-Big-Money Tuesday!
The Tuesday indicator works again!! (at least in the first 40 minutes of trading)

S&P currently up 41 points.
We need a buy on Monday, sell on Tuesday adventure thread.

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Doom&Gloom
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Joined: Thu May 08, 2014 3:36 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:44 am

Buy on Monday and go away.

Rinse & repeat 52 times/year.

Owning the world made easy!

Ragan2
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Ragan2 » Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:39 pm

Nothing in the world is more fascinating to me than to wonder where "LBill" went????????

I like to think he's sitting on a beach somewhere, reading these posts and chuckling every time this thread comes back.

Where is he and what is he doing!!! It drives me crazy wondering! LOL.

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LadyGeek
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LadyGeek » Tue Aug 13, 2019 5:10 pm

The thread is starting to derail on demographics. Please stay on-topic, which is the stock market.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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LadyGeek
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LadyGeek » Tue Aug 13, 2019 5:40 pm

I removed an interchange related to demographics. The discussion was starting to derail.

Please stay on-topic.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid » Tue Aug 13, 2019 5:57 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:30 pm
BanquetBeer wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 2:05 pm
My horizon is at least 50 years and probably 90 for the funds I hope to pass on.
Heh, you're the first 6-year old I've seen on this site. Nice!
Well, the Bogleheads are a smart bunch! Even the child prodigies post here. Pretty smart 6 year old.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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corn18
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by corn18 » Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:10 am

10Y-2Y is now inverted for the first time since 2008-2009.
Don't do something, just stand there!


lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog » Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:50 am

nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 5:57 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:30 pm
BanquetBeer wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 2:05 pm
My horizon is at least 50 years and probably 90 for the funds I hope to pass on.
Heh, you're the first 6-year old I've seen on this site. Nice!
Well, the Bogleheads are a smart bunch! Even the child prodigies post here. Pretty smart 6 year old.
Reminds me of the e-trade commercials a decade ago with the toddler speaking like an adult at his computer making trades.
VT/VTWAX+BNDW

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Psyayeayeduck
Posts: 173
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Psyayeayeduck » Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:04 am

lostdog wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:50 am
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 5:57 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:30 pm
BanquetBeer wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 2:05 pm
My horizon is at least 50 years and probably 90 for the funds I hope to pass on.
Heh, you're the first 6-year old I've seen on this site. Nice!
Well, the Bogleheads are a smart bunch! Even the child prodigies post here. Pretty smart 6 year old.
Reminds me of the e-trade commercials a decade ago with the toddler speaking like an adult at his computer making trades.
Oh god, I remember that! It was such a creepy commercial. And why would any would want to take investment advice with a talking infant as a mascot?


But for more on-topic discussion, it wouldn't surprise me if we continue going down. I knew these kinds of events were going to happen eventually. I build my "financial empire" in preparation -- solid emergency fund, sharpening and expanding my skills, networking, and so forth regardless of the status of the markets. Sometimes I missed a spike in growth. Sometimes I miss a dip. Doesn't matter. Rather be prepared than embrace the Fear of Missing Out (FOMO).

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