Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

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MoneyMarathon
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Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

Post by MoneyMarathon » Sun Jul 21, 2019 10:01 pm

azanon wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 8:18 am
So Warren could be pitted against, say, Bridgewater's All Weather fund. I would anticipate Warren would easily beat Bridgewater on return only, but I'd be curious to see how they do comparing Sharpe Ratios.... That's answering the question, how much return did you get per unit of risk that you took.
"Comparatively, over the past 32 years the Berkshire Hathaway stock has earned a risk to return ratio or Sharpe ratio of 0.64."

https://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/th ... ts-returns

"Since its inception in 1996, the All Weather strategy has produced annualized returns of approximately 8.4% with roughly 11% volatility, and a 0.43 Sharpe (return-torisk) ratio (gross of fees)."

http://sdcera.granicus.com/MetaViewer.p ... ta_id=9141.

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hdas
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Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

Post by hdas » Sun Jul 21, 2019 10:23 pm

MoneyMarathon wrote:
Sun Jul 21, 2019 10:01 pm
azanon wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 8:18 am
So Warren could be pitted against, say, Bridgewater's All Weather fund. I would anticipate Warren would easily beat Bridgewater on return only, but I'd be curious to see how they do comparing Sharpe Ratios.... That's answering the question, how much return did you get per unit of risk that you took.
"Comparatively, over the past 32 years the Berkshire Hathaway stock has earned a risk to return ratio or Sharpe ratio of 0.64."

https://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/th ... ts-returns

"Since its inception in 1996, the All Weather strategy has produced annualized returns of approximately 8.4% with roughly 11% volatility, and a 0.43 Sharpe (return-torisk) ratio (gross of fees)."

http://sdcera.granicus.com/MetaViewer.p ... ta_id=9141.

Buffett made relatively few concentrated investments for a chance at long-term outperformance. (Successfully.)
You have to do apples to apples. So B.Water pure alpha vs BKR. Also aligne the timeframe. Cheers :greedy
"whenever there is a randomized way of doing something, then there is a nonrandomized way that delivers better performance but requires more thought" ET Jaynes

MoneyMarathon
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Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

Post by MoneyMarathon » Sun Jul 21, 2019 10:26 pm

hdas wrote:
Sun Jul 21, 2019 10:23 pm
You have to do apples to apples. So B.Water pure alpha vs BKR. Also aligne the timeframe. Cheers :greedy
Berkshire was relatively less successful later on... you'd do well switching from Berkshire to All-Weather in the late 90s. :)

Alchemist
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Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

Post by Alchemist » Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:18 pm

The Federal Government tax revenues are only 16.5% of GDP for 2018. The total tax to GDP ratio for the United States is 27% (including all state/local taxes). That is pretty low by developed nation standards:
OECD wrote:The United States ranked 31st out of 36 OECD countries in terms of the tax-to-GDP ratio in 2017. In 2017, the United States had a tax-to-GDP ratio of 27.1% compared with the OECD average of 34.2%. In 2016, the United States was ranked 32nd out of the 36 OECD countries in terms of the tax-to-GDP ratio.
https://www.oecd.org/tax/revenue-statis ... states.pdf

Keep in mind that is from 2017. Before the recent tax cuts. If increasing deficits become either economically or politically untenable, there is a great deal of room to collect more revenue. In other words, Mr Dalio's prediction of needing to run the printing presses is looking at the issue from only one direction. I do not know what will happen, but if history is any guide some combination of tax increases and budget cuts are likely to occur at some point.

Instead of gold or commodities I think the issues he raised instead point to the value of Roth vs Traditional retirement accounts. If taxes increase in the future, Roth will be more valuable.

One final point is that this is a medium term problem not a long term one. Gen X (currently in peak earning/taxpaying years) is smaller than the Boomers thus causing a crunch on the budget with relatively lower tax revenues compared with when the Boomers were in peak earning years. But by 2030 the Millennial's will be at their peak earnings age. They are not only bigger than the Boomers but are in fact the most numerous generation in American history...well second most. Gen Z behind them is slightly larger still.

Once the population bottleneck of the Boomers/Gen X's relative disparity works itself out, the demographics will make the budget issue even easier to solve.

Stay the course, and ignore the noise.

klaus14
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Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

Post by klaus14 » Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:26 pm

Alchemist wrote:
Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:18 pm
The Federal Government tax revenues are only 16.5% of GDP for 2018. The total tax to GDP ratio for the United States is 27% (including all state/local taxes). That is pretty low by developed nation standards:
OECD wrote:The United States ranked 31st out of 36 OECD countries in terms of the tax-to-GDP ratio in 2017. In 2017, the United States had a tax-to-GDP ratio of 27.1% compared with the OECD average of 34.2%. In 2016, the United States was ranked 32nd out of the 36 OECD countries in terms of the tax-to-GDP ratio.
https://www.oecd.org/tax/revenue-statis ... states.pdf

Keep in mind that is from 2017. Before the recent tax cuts. If increasing deficits become either economically or politically untenable, there is a great deal of room to collect more revenue. In other words, Mr Dalio's prediction of needing to run the printing presses is looking at the issue from only one direction. I do not know what will happen, but if history is any guide some combination of tax increases and budget cuts are likely to occur at some point.
Tax increases or budget cuts would make the recession even worse. I don't see how this counters Dalio's argument.

MoneyMarathon
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Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

Post by MoneyMarathon » Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:37 pm

klaus14 wrote:
Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:26 pm
Alchemist wrote:
Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:18 pm
Keep in mind that is from 2017. Before the recent tax cuts. If increasing deficits become either economically or politically untenable, there is a great deal of room to collect more revenue. In other words, Mr Dalio's prediction of needing to run the printing presses is looking at the issue from only one direction. I do not know what will happen, but if history is any guide some combination of tax increases and budget cuts are likely to occur at some point.
Tax increases or budget cuts would make the recession even worse. I don't see how this counters Dalio's argument.
There will be a recession. The next one may be more inflationary (like 1973-1974) or deflationary (like 2008) in nature. Dalio isn't just arguing for a recession but an inflationary recession, one of the topics of his recent book & why he's saying to hold gold.

The recession prediction is correct. The timing and what you'd want to hold to protect against it... much more speculative. But Dalio himself isn't switching his position on gold at all. He's been saying to keep it forever and is influenced by his early experience as a young professional in the early 1970s inflation / gold bull run. Probably didn't hurt that he rode the gold bull in the 2000s as well, as part of his All Weather allocation strategy of being prepared for inflation or deflation.

klaus14
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Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

Post by klaus14 » Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:49 pm

MoneyMarathon wrote:
Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:37 pm
klaus14 wrote:
Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:26 pm
Alchemist wrote:
Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:18 pm
Keep in mind that is from 2017. Before the recent tax cuts. If increasing deficits become either economically or politically untenable, there is a great deal of room to collect more revenue. In other words, Mr Dalio's prediction of needing to run the printing presses is looking at the issue from only one direction. I do not know what will happen, but if history is any guide some combination of tax increases and budget cuts are likely to occur at some point.
Tax increases or budget cuts would make the recession even worse. I don't see how this counters Dalio's argument.
There will be a recession. The next one may be more inflationary (like 1973-1974) or deflationary (like 2008) in nature. Dalio isn't just arguing for a recession but an inflationary recession, one of the topics of his recent book & why he's saying to hold gold.

The recession prediction is correct. The timing and what you'd want to hold to protect against it... much more speculative. But Dalio himself isn't switching his position on gold at all. He's been saying to keep it forever and is influenced by his early experience as a young professional in the early 1970s inflation / gold bull run. Probably didn't hurt that he rode the gold bull in the 2000s as well, as part of his All Weather allocation strategy of being prepared for inflation or deflation.
(Recession will come) AND (we are at already low rates) AND (tax increases or budget cuts are unlikely) ---> there will be more money printing ---> USD assets will depreciate ---> gold will appreciate.

Tax increases or budget cuts being unlikely is part of the argument. To be more nuanced, there may be tax increases on the investor class, like increasing capital gains tax. but these also have the effect of devaluing usd investments.

MoneyMarathon
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Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

Post by MoneyMarathon » Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:58 pm

klaus14 wrote:
Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:49 pm
(Recession will come) AND (we are at already low rates) AND (tax increases or budget cuts are unlikely) ---> there will be more money printing ---> USD assets will depreciate ---> gold will appreciate.
Yeah but when? 2020? 2025? 2030? 2035? 2040? 2050? 2060? After the investor is dead?

Will it be the next recession, the one after that, or the one after that which is inflationary?

Alchemist
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Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

Post by Alchemist » Mon Jul 22, 2019 12:03 am

klaus14 wrote:
Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:49 pm
(Recession will come) AND (we are at already low rates) AND (tax increases or budget cuts are unlikely) ---> there will be more money printing ---> USD assets will depreciate ---> gold will appreciate.

Tax increases or budget cuts being unlikely is part of the argument. To be more nuanced, there may be tax increases on the investor class, like increasing capital gains tax. but these also have the effect of devaluing usd investments.
Ah, thank you for breaking down his argument so succinctly. I was thinking about the longer term, he seems to be specifically talking about the near term. I guess he could be correct, but this kind of prediction has been being made for quite some time. With all the QE after 2008 many very intelligent people predicted such an outcome would already have occurred. To be honest, even I am a little surprised there hasn't been more inflation.

But I do not have much fear about a couple more years of high deficits during the next recession. Especially if it shows up in the next 12 months. Europe has negative rates right now. Japanese debt (already greater than 200% GDP) is also at near zero real rates. Yet it keeps being purchased on the debt markets. If the world hits another recession in 2020 as everyone seems to be expecting; I do not think there will be a lack of buyers for treasuries. Especially if the alternative is European/Japanese debt that will be yielding even less or even negative (real or nominal).

In general there seems to be something terribly wrong with our economic models. Huge inflation has been expected for quite some time, and levels of government debt in developed economies is far higher than anyone would have thought safe 20 years ago. Yet here we sit in a world with central banks desperately trying to encourage inflation to little avail. I have no solution for this puzzle.....but it is seemingly inexplicable for the moment.

klaus14
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Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

Post by klaus14 » Mon Jul 22, 2019 1:09 am

Alchemist wrote:
Mon Jul 22, 2019 12:03 am

Ah, thank you for breaking down his argument so succinctly. I was thinking about the longer term, he seems to be specifically talking about the near term. I guess he could be correct, but this kind of prediction has been being made for quite some time. With all the QE after 2008 many very intelligent people predicted such an outcome would already have occurred. To be honest, even I am a little surprised there hasn't been more inflation.

But I do not have much fear about a couple more years of high deficits during the next recession. Especially if it shows up in the next 12 months. Europe has negative rates right now. Japanese debt (already greater than 200% GDP) is also at near zero real rates. Yet it keeps being purchased on the debt markets. If the world hits another recession in 2020 as everyone seems to be expecting; I do not think there will be a lack of buyers for treasuries. Especially if the alternative is European/Japanese debt that will be yielding even less or even negative (real or nominal).

In general there seems to be something terribly wrong with our economic models. Huge inflation has been expected for quite some time, and levels of government debt in developed economies is far higher than anyone would have thought safe 20 years ago. Yet here we sit in a world with central banks desperately trying to encourage inflation to little avail. I have no solution for this puzzle.....but it is seemingly inexplicable for the moment.
i am not sure inflation is necessary for Dalio's argument to hold. He simply argues bonds will also have negative real/nominal returns in addition to stocks in the next recession. When all other assets have negative returns, people will flock to gold to preserve their capital.

This hasn't happened so far (or maybe happened just a little since May) because, (1) we haven't hit the recession yet (so stocks can still be attractive) , (2) we haven't hit the bottom with interest rates yet (still some room which can make bonds attractive). Dalio thinks both will happen within 5 years.

So far, as interest rates went down, investors' bond holdings appreciated. this price return made up for lost yield. this may go on for a while more. until it doesn't.

----

I am not selling my EDV holdings yet, its yield is still significantly above FED's inflation target.
But i am hedging with gold, TIPS and EM Debt.

Plz
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Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

Post by Plz » Mon Jul 22, 2019 3:39 am

MoneyMarathon wrote:
Sun Jul 21, 2019 10:01 pm
azanon wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 8:18 am
So Warren could be pitted against, say, Bridgewater's All Weather fund. I would anticipate Warren would easily beat Bridgewater on return only, but I'd be curious to see how they do comparing Sharpe Ratios.... That's answering the question, how much return did you get per unit of risk that you took.
"Comparatively, over the past 32 years the Berkshire Hathaway stock has earned a risk to return ratio or Sharpe ratio of 0.64."

https://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/th ... ts-returns

"Since its inception in 1996, the All Weather strategy has produced annualized returns of approximately 8.4% with roughly 11% volatility, and a 0.43 Sharpe (return-torisk) ratio (gross of fees)."

http://sdcera.granicus.com/MetaViewer.p ... ta_id=9141.
The bridge water performance stops in 2009.

And how do I interpret the sharpe ratio? Investopedia says >1.0 good, >2.0 very good, >3.0 excellent, and <1.0 suboptimal.

This can’t be right, saying Berkshire has been suboptimal?

azanon
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Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

Post by azanon » Mon Jul 22, 2019 7:39 am

hdas wrote:
Sun Jul 21, 2019 10:23 pm
MoneyMarathon wrote:
Sun Jul 21, 2019 10:01 pm
azanon wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 8:18 am
So Warren could be pitted against, say, Bridgewater's All Weather fund. I would anticipate Warren would easily beat Bridgewater on return only, but I'd be curious to see how they do comparing Sharpe Ratios.... That's answering the question, how much return did you get per unit of risk that you took.
"Comparatively, over the past 32 years the Berkshire Hathaway stock has earned a risk to return ratio or Sharpe ratio of 0.64."

https://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/th ... ts-returns

"Since its inception in 1996, the All Weather strategy has produced annualized returns of approximately 8.4% with roughly 11% volatility, and a 0.43 Sharpe (return-torisk) ratio (gross of fees)."

http://sdcera.granicus.com/MetaViewer.p ... ta_id=9141.

Buffett made relatively few concentrated investments for a chance at long-term outperformance. (Successfully.)
You have to do apples to apples. So B.Water pure alpha vs BKR. Also aligne the timeframe. Cheers :greedy
Of course, the measured timeframes would need to be the same. It wasn't in this case.

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willthrill81
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Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Jul 22, 2019 11:23 am

Plz wrote:
Mon Jul 22, 2019 3:39 am
MoneyMarathon wrote:
Sun Jul 21, 2019 10:01 pm
azanon wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 8:18 am
So Warren could be pitted against, say, Bridgewater's All Weather fund. I would anticipate Warren would easily beat Bridgewater on return only, but I'd be curious to see how they do comparing Sharpe Ratios.... That's answering the question, how much return did you get per unit of risk that you took.
"Comparatively, over the past 32 years the Berkshire Hathaway stock has earned a risk to return ratio or Sharpe ratio of 0.64."

https://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/th ... ts-returns

"Since its inception in 1996, the All Weather strategy has produced annualized returns of approximately 8.4% with roughly 11% volatility, and a 0.43 Sharpe (return-torisk) ratio (gross of fees)."

http://sdcera.granicus.com/MetaViewer.p ... ta_id=9141.
The bridge water performance stops in 2009.

And how do I interpret the sharpe ratio? Investopedia says >1.0 good, >2.0 very good, >3.0 excellent, and <1.0 suboptimal.

This can’t be right, saying Berkshire has been suboptimal?
By itself, the Sharpe ratio doesn't seem to be too useful. It is most often used to compare the volatility-adjusted returns of two or more assets or portfolios.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

MoneyMarathon
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Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

Post by MoneyMarathon » Mon Jul 22, 2019 12:21 pm

Plz wrote:
Mon Jul 22, 2019 3:39 am
And how do I interpret the sharpe ratio? Investopedia says >1.0 good, >2.0 very good, >3.0 excellent, and <1.0 suboptimal.

This can’t be right, saying Berkshire has been suboptimal?
Those numbers are pure fantasy, for people who want to grow wealth with exposure to stocks. No pain, no gain.

I think around 0.4 is fine for aggressive investors. That's about what you got with 100% in the S&P 500, through bears and bulls.

Carol88888
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Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

Post by Carol88888 » Mon Jul 22, 2019 12:25 pm

MoneyMarathon wrote:
Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:58 pm
klaus14 wrote:
Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:49 pm
(Recession will come) AND (we are at already low rates) AND (tax increases or budget cuts are unlikely) ---> there will be more money printing ---> USD assets will depreciate ---> gold will appreciate.
Yeah but when? 2020? 2025? 2030? 2035? 2040? 2050? 2060? After the investor is dead?

Will it be the next recession, the one after that, or the one after that which is inflationary?
I just wanted to add that timing is really hard. Remember, Australia has not had a recession in 28 years!

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hdas
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Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

Post by hdas » Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:03 pm

Excellent interview, this time not so much of fear-mongering but an optimistic take on China, from somebody with intimate knowledge of the inner workings of that market, always insightful.

Cheers :greedy
"whenever there is a randomized way of doing something, then there is a nonrandomized way that delivers better performance but requires more thought" ET Jaynes

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