madsinger monthly report (July 2019)

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madsinger
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madsinger monthly report (July 2019)

Post by madsinger » Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:00 pm

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their July 2019 returns, 2019 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2009, 2014, and 2016 (20 years 7 months, 10 years 7 months, 5 years 7 months, 3 years 7 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFIAX, VVIAX, VSMAX, VSIAX, VGSLX, 25 VTIAX, 5 VINEX, 20 VTABX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFIAX, 25% VVIAX, 5% VSMAX, 15% VSIAX, 10% VGSLX, 3% IAU, 5% each VEUSX, VPADX, VEMAX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 50/6/11/33 stock/REIT/Gold/bond. The madsingerPP portfolio is the "permanent portfolio" portion of my portfolio consisting of 25% each of stock, long bond, cash, gold.

-Brad.

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                                  CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                  July    YTD     since   since   since   since
                  2019    2019    2016    2014    2009    1999
VFINX             1.43%  20.23%  13.25%  11.05%  14.19%   6.30%
Sheltered Sam     0.43%  16.22%  10.45%   7.80%  11.90%   7.63%
Hot Hands         1.26%  24.34%   5.00%   4.06%  10.72%  10.29%
                  
Newsletter G-IND  0.94%  18.10%  11.78%   9.26%  13.67%   7.13%
Newsletter G      1.12%  17.60%  11.59%   9.57%  13.64%   9.66%
LS G              0.20%  14.59%   9.35%   7.00%  10.38%   5.59%
3 fund            0.20%  14.81%   9.39%   6.85%  10.20%   6.08%
s&d               0.05%  14.02%   8.32%   6.38%  10.10%   7.25%

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Newsletter CG     0.97%  15.00%  10.90%   9.08%  12.51%   8.21%
Wellington        1.13%  14.15%   9.93%   8.08%  10.68%   7.63%
STAR              0.53%  14.16%   9.02%   7.02%  10.03%   6.81%
coffeehouse       0.50%  13.14%   7.70%   6.39%   9.26%   6.99%
LS MG             0.32%  12.62%   8.05%   6.28%   8.92%   5.49%
                  
Newsletter Inc    0.88%  15.20%   9.83%   8.59%  10.88%   6.38%
Wellesley         0.45%  11.12%   7.34%   6.36%   8.56%   6.78%
LS CG             0.39%  10.60%   6.68%   5.47%   7.37%   5.12%
                  
madsinger         0.13%  11.44%   7.84%   5.48%   9.36%   
madsinger PP      0.51%  10.33%   7.08%         
Last edited by madsinger on Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:25 am, edited 1 time in total.

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madsinger
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Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2019)

Post by madsinger » Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:04 pm

Late report for July. The past couple of weeks have been busy here.

The lack of volatility in July is such a distant memory! US stocks were positive with gains in the range of +0.5% to +1.5%. Internationals fell with losses around -2%. Bonds were slightly positive.

The permanent portfolio had gains of +1.6% in US Large, and the other components with slightly positive.

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         STOCK  LONG BOND  CASH    GOLD   PORTFOLIO 
January  7.97%    0.42%    0.13%   2.85%    2.71%
February 3.21%   -1.21%    0.16%  -0.47%    0.40%
March    1.91%    5.44%    0.14%  -1.59%    1.40%
April    4.02%   -1.89%    0.14%  -0.73%    0.37%
May     -6.36%    6.66%    0.18%   1.79%    0.56%
June     7.00%    1.02%    0.14%   8.15%    4.01%
July     1.40%    0.29%    0.15%   0.15%    0.49%

YTD     20.15%   10.93%    1.04%  10.27%   10.33%

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madsinger
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Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2019)

Post by madsinger » Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:07 pm

August has been quite the opposite of July in terms of volatility. As of today, Long Bonds and Gold are both ahead (by a tiny amount) of the S&P 500 returns.

For those who have any interest in my madsinger Permanent Portfolio, as of August 1, I'm going to be using "short bonds" instead of "cash". My company's 401-k plan changed the Stable Value fund they were using, and I no longer feel comfortable holding that fund. So, there is no "cash" in my portfolio anymore, and the 1/3 allocation of bonds in my total portfolio is now "US Long Treasury", "Intermediate corporate" and "short corporate", and the short corporate has replaced the "cash'" (stable value fund) in my PP.

newstreetnj
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Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2019)

Post by newstreetnj » Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:24 pm

Hi Madsinger,

What happened to the data on the "newsletter" funds?

Bob

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bilperk
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Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2019)

Post by bilperk » Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:15 pm

I would assume whoever was giving him the numbers didn't this month.
Bill

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Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2019)

Post by madsinger » Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:55 pm

newstreetnj wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:24 pm
What happened to the data on the "newsletter" funds?
As bilperk surmised, I do not have the data from the newsletter. I get it right from the newsletter's website, but they have not updated the results for July. If anyone has the "YTD returns" for the four portfolios, if you PM me the numbers, I will post them in the chart.

-Brad.

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Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2019)

Post by madsinger » Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:26 am

Someone has sent me the Newsletter return information for July. Thanks! I have updated the chart.

-Brad.

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