Ok it's so obvious in my mind that I'm correct that I think it's likely we're talking about different things.Lee_WSP wrote: ↑Fri Aug 09, 2019 1:58 pm305pelusa wrote: ↑Fri Aug 09, 2019 11:58 amThat will only be the case if you fully pay off your debt after a year. So your argument is correct for credit cards. It is incorrect for any other leverage option where one can defer payment past a year.Lee_WSP wrote: ↑Fri Aug 09, 2019 10:51 am305pelusa wrote: ↑Fri Aug 09, 2019 6:10 amI see the problem. You're not making the correct comparison. Lump sum beats DCA over a 12 month period 66% of the time.

But leverage with Lifecycle Investment takes your future savings from far more from a year to today. When you leverage and put, say, your next 3 years of future savings in the market today, it takes 3 years for DCA to achieve that. Lump sum wins 90% of the time in that scenario.

So far for you to make use of those Vanguard results, you need to understand how many years of future savings leverage will invest today. It is NOT 12 months.

The authors of Lifecycle Investing have already done this for you. Lifecycle Investing has outperformed 100% of the times historically.

If Lump sum beats DCA over a 12 month period of time, then using leverage to do the lump sum beats savings 66% of the time if the cost of borrowing were zero.

The other 33% of the time, DCA or spreading out the investments would have come out ahead.

If you have more money at the end of 12 months, you will have more money in the future due to compounding interest.

If you had $50,000 in twelve months or $75,000 in twelve months, which scenario sets you up better later in life? If you say $50k, I have nothing further to discuss with you.

The research doesn't go past 12 months because it assumes you are fully invested after the 12 month period. There is no point in seeing which strategy does better after 12 months, they'll both do equally well because they're both fully invested.

If you take a loan and fully pay it after 10 years, every single day before that time, the leveraged investor will be more invested in equities. Only once you pay the loan will the two "equalize" in terms of dollar amounts in equities

No it is not. Both situations you describe is a lump sum upfront investment vs splitting it up over a longer time frame.

Please take me step by step through how the findings that lump summing vs DCAing over 12 months matters to a strategy of leverage that borrows and pays back over decades.