U.S. stocks in free fall

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ImUrHuckleberry
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ImUrHuckleberry » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:53 am

Dow is down only just over 200 now; barely a flesh wound.

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ruralavalon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ruralavalon » Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:06 am

mattshwink wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:33 am
ruralavalon wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:05 am
Perhaps the 100% stock investors are learning something about risk.
I was 100% in 2008. I stayed the course. I was ~94% last year. I stayed the course. I was between 92% and 94% on Monday. I stayed the course.

I didn't learn anything new, I reaffirmed what I already knew - I have a higher than average risk tolerance. I am 44 years old. I am probably 10-20 years from retirement with 30-40 years of retirement beyond that. I don't really care what the market did yesterday, today, or tomorrow. I care about what the decades long future trend is. If the market goes down, great (for me), the four times a month 401k buys in my household will obtain more shares (and dividends and capital gains will as well). If the market goes up, great, I might be able to retire closer to 10 years than 20.

No matter what the market does, I will follow my IPS and continue the slow march to 60-40 over the next 16 years.
That's very good for you. I breezed through dotcom crash at age 55, didn't sell a thing and continued normal contributions.

Others with 100% stock will panic sell, then agonize over whether it's a good time to reenter the stock market, and miss the recovery.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

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AnalogKid22
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AnalogKid22 » Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:31 am

ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:53 am
Dow is down only just over 200 now; barely a flesh wound.
Now just over 300...

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:47 am

AnalogKid22 wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:31 am
ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:53 am
Dow is down only just over 200 now; barely a flesh wound.
Now just over 300...
This is like watching the big wheel spin at Resorts in Atlantic City. If VTI hits 143 it will be a good time to buy but remember, investing is like baseball where nobody knows nothing. :mrgreen:

Valuethinker
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:51 am

ruralavalon wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:06 am
mattshwink wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:33 am
ruralavalon wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:05 am
Perhaps the 100% stock investors are learning something about risk.
I was 100% in 2008. I stayed the course. I was ~94% last year. I stayed the course. I was between 92% and 94% on Monday. I stayed the course.

I didn't learn anything new, I reaffirmed what I already knew - I have a higher than average risk tolerance. I am 44 years old. I am probably 10-20 years from retirement with 30-40 years of retirement beyond that. I don't really care what the market did yesterday, today, or tomorrow. I care about what the decades long future trend is. If the market goes down, great (for me), the four times a month 401k buys in my household will obtain more shares (and dividends and capital gains will as well). If the market goes up, great, I might be able to retire closer to 10 years than 20.

No matter what the market does, I will follow my IPS and continue the slow march to 60-40 over the next 16 years.
That's very good for you. I breezed through dotcom crash at age 55, didn't sell a thing and continued normal contributions.

Others with 100% stock will panic sell, then agonize over whether it's a good time to reenter the stock market, and miss the recovery.
Getting closer to retirement makes one less brave, I find.

I don't have the years to make it back that I had in 2000-03 or 2008-09. In both cases when I was essentially 100% stocks.

So, I have more bonds than I did, then.

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David Jay
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by David Jay » Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:11 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:30 am
All stock is not for the faint of hart...
Oh, deer!
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future - Niels Bohr | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:22 am

David Jay wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:11 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:30 am
All stock is not for the faint of hart...
Oh, deer!
Sorry, I have always had trouble with vowels. Especially unnecessary vowels. It is a disability I have had all my life.

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David Jay
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by David Jay » Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:25 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:22 am
David Jay wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:11 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:30 am
All stock is not for the faint of hart...
Oh, deer!
Sorry, I have always had trouble with vowels. Especially unnecessary vowels. It is a disability I have had all my life.
And I have always had a problem with being pedantic. Especially if there is a pun involved... :wink:
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future - Niels Bohr | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:32 am

David Jay wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:25 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:22 am
David Jay wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:11 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:30 am
All stock is not for the faint of hart...
Oh, deer!
Sorry, I have always had trouble with vowels. Especially unnecessary vowels. It is a disability I have had all my life.
And I have always had a problem with being pedantic. Especially if there is a pun involved... :wink:
No problem, internet editors have help me improve where spell checkers have failed, :beer

Prahasaurus
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Prahasaurus » Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:35 am

You know we're in a world of trouble when pundits and posters are talking about "winning a trade war" with China. Ok, good luck with that. Spoiler alert: there isn't going to be any winners, just countries that lose less... And let me tell you, it's not going to be China.

My favorite moment was watching American politicians and CNBC hosts brag about how China is in trouble, how we are winning the trade war, etc. All of those big, tough old guys on TV, bragging about how we're sticking it to the Chinese. Then news breaks that the Yuan fell to under 7 USD, and all hell breaks loose. Ha! Whoops, surprise!

People are delusional if they think US companies can easily untangle themselves from China. And don't forget, for many US companies, it's a major - and fast growing - market for their products. Its population is over 3 times the size of the USA, and its economy is growing twice as fast. You think Apple, or Intel, or Boeing are just going to walk away from that massive market? Give me a break.

The other advantage China has is time. US politicians have a time horizon of the next election. China just needs to keep their people off the streets. And the beauty of a trade war is they have a nice scapegoat for any economic hardship. But again, it's not about winning, it's about China losing less than the USA. Which is exactly what will happen.

My other favorite moment - this was 2 weeks ago - was listening to CNBC talk about how Mexico was going to benefit in a big way from the US trade war with China, and how US companies in Mexico were well placed, etc., etc. Literally the next day, Trump tweets that he's going to impose tariffs on Mexico. LOL! You can run, but you can't hide!

In any case, so many warning lights are flashing red it's hard to know where to start. Buckle up!

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AnalogKid22
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AnalogKid22 » Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:36 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:47 am
AnalogKid22 wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:31 am
ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:53 am
Dow is down only just over 200 now; barely a flesh wound.
Now just over 300...
This is like watching the big wheel spin at Resorts in Atlantic City. If VTI hits 143 it will be a good time to buy but remember, investing is like baseball where nobody knows nothing. :mrgreen:
That's the point I was trying to make. This message board is intended for "Bogleheads" who should know that market-timing goes completely against Bogle's philosophy. But, for many, the temptation to buy when the market appears down is just too great.

Prahasaurus
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Prahasaurus » Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:39 am

AnalogKid22 wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:36 am
That's the point I was trying to make. This message board is intended for "Bogleheads" who should know that market-timing goes completely against Bogle's philosophy. But, for many, the temptation to buy when the market appears down is just too great.
Would you be surprised to know Bogle himself readjusted his portfolio just before the dot com crash, moving a lot of his money out of stocks and into bonds? And with that in mind, do you think Bogle was not a true Boglehead?

LiterallyIronic
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LiterallyIronic » Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:45 am

Prahasaurus wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:35 am
In any case, so many warning lights are flashing red it's hard to know where to start. Buckle up!
I'll get my popcorn ready. Stock market has been pretty much flat most of my career, so I really need a big dip and recovery to get some gains beyond my own contributions.

ImUrHuckleberry
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ImUrHuckleberry » Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:47 am

LiterallyIronic wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:45 am
Prahasaurus wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:35 am
In any case, so many warning lights are flashing red it's hard to know where to start. Buckle up!
I'll get my popcorn ready. Stock market has been pretty much flat most of my career, so I really need a big dip and recovery to get some gains beyond my own contributions.
Has your entire career lasted about a year or two?

hexagon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by hexagon » Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:51 am

Prahasaurus wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:39 am
Would you be surprised to know Bogle himself readjusted his portfolio just before the dot com crash, moving a lot of his money out of stocks and into bonds? And with that in mind, do you think Bogle was not a true Boglehead?
What I've learned from Taylor Larimore is that the Boglehead "Code is more what you call guidelines, than actual rules."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GMkuPiIZ2k

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CULater
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CULater » Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:53 am

But there's a difference between investing in stocks when you're working and growing your retirement portfolio, and when you've stopped working and are starting to live off your portfolio. In the former case, you take on equity risk in order to have the money you'll need to retire. In the latter case, you should take on equity risk with only the money you don't really need to live on. Big difference.
On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:54 am

hexagon wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:51 am
Prahasaurus wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:39 am
Would you be surprised to know Bogle himself readjusted his portfolio just before the dot com crash, moving a lot of his money out of stocks and into bonds? And with that in mind, do you think Bogle was not a true Boglehead?
What I've learned from Taylor Larimore is that the Boglehead "Code is more what you call guidelines, than actual rules."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GMkuPiIZ2k
Back in the 2008-2009 debacle, several prominent members of the forum were talking about 'plan B', such as selling a large portion of their holdings to buy a SPIA.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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ruralavalon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ruralavalon » Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:59 am

David Jay wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:11 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:30 am
All stock is not for the faint of hart...
Oh, deer!
Made me laugh :D :D
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

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Pobre
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Pobre » Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:01 pm

History of U.S. Bear & Bull Markets Since 1926

"Although past performance is no guarantee of future results,we believe looking at the history of the market’s expansions and recessions helps to gain a fresh perspective on the benefits of investing for the long-term.

• The average Bull Market period lasted 9.1 years
with an average cumulative total return of 480%.

• The average Bear Market period lasted 1.4 years
with an average cumulative loss of -41%"

Image

https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/Con ... 8ff9bfe12d
Last edited by Pobre on Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.

caffeperfavore
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by caffeperfavore » Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:10 pm

Prahasaurus wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:35 am
My favorite moment was watching American politicians and CNBC hosts brag about how China is in trouble, how we are winning the trade war, etc. All of those big, tough old guys on TV, bragging about how we're sticking it to the Chinese. Then news breaks that the Yuan fell to under 7 USD, and all hell breaks loose. Ha! Whoops, surprise! ...

The other advantage China has is time. US politicians have a time horizon of the next election. China just needs to keep their people off the streets. And the beauty of a trade war is they have a nice scapegoat for any economic hardship. But again, it's not about winning, it's about China losing less than the USA. Which is exactly what will happen.
Culturally, it will be interesting to watch how this plays out. I've only had brief experiences in negotiating with the Chinese, but it seems that patience and prolonged haggling is a large part of the process. It's death from a 1000 paper cuts.

If it turns into a matter of national pride, I don't expect them to back down any time soon.

I also worry that we're going to overplay our hand here, realizing too late that we have less leverage than we think.

My horizon is long so I plan to ride this out, but I'm starting to get a little gloomy.

Prahasaurus
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Prahasaurus » Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:16 pm

caffeperfavore wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:10 pm
I also worry that we're going to overplay our hand here, realizing too late that we have less leverage than we think.

My horizon is long so I plan to ride this out, but I'm starting to get a little gloomy.
"Going to" overplay our hand? Not to mix metaphors, but I think that Rubicon was passed about 3 months ago. In fact, I'm not even sure we understand the rules. They are playing poker, we are playing tic tac toe.

Prahasaurus
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Prahasaurus » Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:22 pm

caffeperfavore wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:10 pm
Culturally, it will be interesting to watch how this plays out. I've only had brief experiences in negotiating with the Chinese, but it seems that patience and prolonged haggling is a large part of the process. It's death from a 1000 paper cuts.
I just spent the past 2 years dealing with multiple Chinese companies on a large project. It's not something I ever again wish to repeat.

And certainly pride is huge with Chinese. What do I see on my TV: US leaders talking to them as if they are idiots, ordering them around as if they work for us, bragging that we are "winning" this trade war (however stupidly defined)... It is not going to go over well at all.

But whatever. Nothing I can do but enjoy the fireworks.

LiterallyIronic
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LiterallyIronic » Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:24 pm

ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:47 am
LiterallyIronic wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:45 am
Prahasaurus wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:35 am
In any case, so many warning lights are flashing red it's hard to know where to start. Buckle up!
I'll get my popcorn ready. Stock market has been pretty much flat most of my career, so I really need a big dip and recovery to get some gains beyond my own contributions.
Has your entire career lasted about a year or two?
More or less. Graduated university in December 2008. Couldn't find a job for a few months before taking a job doing tech support in a call center for $9.50/hour. No money to invest. Started dating someone. Got married in 2009. Almost every dollar of in my income paid for our rent and her tuition, since she hadn't finished school yet. No money to invest. She graduated a couple years later. Finally invested my first dollar in 2012. About $2,000 that year. My income was up to $11.50/hour and my wife's was $8.25/hour. Both with university degrees. Invested another couple thousand in 2013. Whatever we could scrape together in April before the deadline. I went back to school in 2013. Virtually all of my wife's income went toward rent and my tuition. By 2015, I'd say our retirement balance was perhaps $10k.

I graduated again in 2016. This time got a job that paid $48k. At this point, I'm in my 30s. We probably put another $5k into retirement in 2016, but we were mostly focused on saving for a house down payment, and we finally managed to get pregnant after about five years of trying. Wife quits her job at the end of 2016; baby born early 2017. Cost us $12k to have the baby, which was 20% of my 2017 gross income (salary had been steadily increasing). Late 2017, we buy a house with 29% down payment. 2017 was the first year we maxed two Roth IRAs. Did it again in 2018, with increased 401k contributions. Now, in 2019, I'm putting 14% into my 401k, maxing two Roth IRAs, and paying extra on my mortgage. But the vast majority of the my investments have come since 2017, and the market run-up was largely over.

It's now been 18 years since I graduated high school, yet I've never really experienced my money in a market run-up or a market drop, because I never had money during any of those. Instead, all I had was no job opportunities in the 2008 downturn and no money to invest during the subsequent run-up. Now I have money to invest. I assume this means the market will stay flat until the day after I retire, at which point it will sink like a rock and stay down until the day after I die.

lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog » Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:34 pm

Pobre wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:01 pm
History of U.S. Bear & Bull Markets Since 1926

"Although past performance is no guarantee of future results,we believe looking at the history of the market’s expansions and recessions helps to gain a fresh perspective on the benefits of investing for the long-term.

• The average Bull Market period lasted 9.1 years
with an average cumulative total return of 480%.

• The average Bear Market period lasted 1.4 years
with an average cumulative loss of -41%"

https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/Con ... 8ff9bfe12d
+1

retiringwhen
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by retiringwhen » Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:55 pm

Looks like it is time to switch over to the sore/soaring thread....

The volatility is strong this week.

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Wed Aug 07, 2019 1:08 pm

Valuethinker wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:51 am
Getting closer to retirement makes one less brave, I find.

I don't have the years to make it back that I had in 2000-03 or 2008-09. In both cases when I was essentially 100% stocks.

So, I have more bonds than I did, then.
If it doesn't make one less brave, then it should -- it sure did with me. Especially if it will be your sole source of income (aside from SS).

About a year and a half ago I was in a car dealer's lobby waiting, and grabbed a Money magazine and thumbed through it. There was an article about some woman (60 or so) who had accumulated around $1M -- enough for her to retire on -- and she had gotten completely out of stocks and into CDs, ST Treasuries (as I recall) and probably some MM.

If memory serves (and it may not) she was just letting it sit like that until she retired. Not sure how she was going to allocate it then.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Aug 07, 2019 1:10 pm

hexagon wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:51 am
Prahasaurus wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:39 am
Would you be surprised to know Bogle himself readjusted his portfolio just before the dot com crash, moving a lot of his money out of stocks and into bonds? And with that in mind, do you think Bogle was not a true Boglehead?
What I've learned from Taylor Larimore is that the Boglehead "Code is more what you call guidelines, than actual rules."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GMkuPiIZ2k
The rules are OK but not best for all. If I do better or worse going a different way it wont matter, so I do. It brings a bit of excitement into an otherwise ho-hum day. :?

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky » Wed Aug 07, 2019 1:20 pm

LiterallyIronic wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:24 pm
ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:47 am
LiterallyIronic wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:45 am
Prahasaurus wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:35 am
In any case, so many warning lights are flashing red it's hard to know where to start. Buckle up!
I'll get my popcorn ready. Stock market has been pretty much flat most of my career, so I really need a big dip and recovery to get some gains beyond my own contributions.
Has your entire career lasted about a year or two?
More or less. Graduated university in December 2008. Couldn't find a job for a few months before taking a job doing tech support in a call center for $9.50/hour. No money to invest. Started dating someone. Got married in 2009. Almost every dollar of in my income paid for our rent and her tuition, since she hadn't finished school yet. No money to invest. She graduated a couple years later. Finally invested my first dollar in 2012. About $2,000 that year. My income was up to $11.50/hour and my wife's was $8.25/hour. Both with university degrees. Invested another couple thousand in 2013. Whatever we could scrape together in April before the deadline. I went back to school in 2013. Virtually all of my wife's income went toward rent and my tuition. By 2015, I'd say our retirement balance was perhaps $10k.

I graduated again in 2016. This time got a job that paid $48k. At this point, I'm in my 30s. We probably put another $5k into retirement in 2016, but we were mostly focused on saving for a house down payment, and we finally managed to get pregnant after about five years of trying. Wife quits her job at the end of 2016; baby born early 2017. Cost us $12k to have the baby, which was 20% of my 2017 gross income (salary had been steadily increasing). Late 2017, we buy a house with 29% down payment. 2017 was the first year we maxed two Roth IRAs. Did it again in 2018, with increased 401k contributions. Now, in 2019, I'm putting 14% into my 401k, maxing two Roth IRAs, and paying extra on my mortgage. But the vast majority of the my investments have come since 2017, and the market run-up was largely over.

It's now been 18 years since I graduated high school, yet I've never really experienced my money in a market run-up or a market drop, because I never had money during any of those. Instead, all I had was no job opportunities in the 2008 downturn and no money to invest during the subsequent run-up. Now I have money to invest. I assume this means the market will stay flat until the day after I retire, at which point it will sink like a rock and stay down until the day after I die.
Kudos to you for persevering through your long journey.

Hopefully it gets easier going forward.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

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ruralavalon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ruralavalon » Wed Aug 07, 2019 1:31 pm

Stinky wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 1:20 pm
LiterallyIronic wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:24 pm
ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:47 am
LiterallyIronic wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:45 am
Prahasaurus wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:35 am
In any case, so many warning lights are flashing red it's hard to know where to start. Buckle up!
I'll get my popcorn ready. Stock market has been pretty much flat most of my career, so I really need a big dip and recovery to get some gains beyond my own contributions.
Has your entire career lasted about a year or two?
More or less. Graduated university in December 2008. Couldn't find a job for a few months before taking a job doing tech support in a call center for $9.50/hour. No money to invest. Started dating someone. Got married in 2009. Almost every dollar of in my income paid for our rent and her tuition, since she hadn't finished school yet. No money to invest. She graduated a couple years later. Finally invested my first dollar in 2012. About $2,000 that year. My income was up to $11.50/hour and my wife's was $8.25/hour. Both with university degrees. Invested another couple thousand in 2013. Whatever we could scrape together in April before the deadline. I went back to school in 2013. Virtually all of my wife's income went toward rent and my tuition. By 2015, I'd say our retirement balance was perhaps $10k.

I graduated again in 2016. This time got a job that paid $48k. At this point, I'm in my 30s. We probably put another $5k into retirement in 2016, but we were mostly focused on saving for a house down payment, and we finally managed to get pregnant after about five years of trying. Wife quits her job at the end of 2016; baby born early 2017. Cost us $12k to have the baby, which was 20% of my 2017 gross income (salary had been steadily increasing). Late 2017, we buy a house with 29% down payment. 2017 was the first year we maxed two Roth IRAs. Did it again in 2018, with increased 401k contributions. Now, in 2019, I'm putting 14% into my 401k, maxing two Roth IRAs, and paying extra on my mortgage. But the vast majority of the my investments have come since 2017, and the market run-up was largely over.

It's now been 18 years since I graduated high school, yet I've never really experienced my money in a market run-up or a market drop, because I never had money during any of those. Instead, all I had was no job opportunities in the 2008 downturn and no money to invest during the subsequent run-up. Now I have money to invest. I assume this means the market will stay flat until the day after I retire, at which point it will sink like a rock and stay down until the day after I die.
Kudos to you for persevering through your long journey.

Hopefully it gets easier going forward.
Continuing with persistence, and doing the best you can with what you have, will pull you through.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

tre3sori
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by tre3sori » Wed Aug 07, 2019 1:34 pm

Prahasaurus wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:39 am
AnalogKid22 wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:36 am
That's the point I was trying to make. This message board is intended for "Bogleheads" who should know that market-timing goes completely against Bogle's philosophy. But, for many, the temptation to buy when the market appears down is just too great.
Would you be surprised to know Bogle himself readjusted his portfolio just before the dot com crash, moving a lot of his money out of stocks and into bonds? And with that in mind, do you think Bogle was not a true Boglehead?
In an interview he said that it was mainly because of his heart failing. He wanted to assure that his family was financially secure in case he did not survive the heart surgery.

H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town » Wed Aug 07, 2019 1:43 pm

Prahasaurus wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:35 am
You know we're in a world of trouble when pundits and posters are talking about "winning a trade war" with China. Ok, good luck with that. Spoiler alert: there isn't going to be any winners, just countries that lose less... And let me tell you, it's not going to be China.

My favorite moment was watching American politicians and CNBC hosts brag about how China is in trouble, how we are winning the trade war, etc. All of those big, tough old guys on TV, bragging about how we're sticking it to the Chinese. Then news breaks that the Yuan fell to under 7 USD, and all hell breaks loose. Ha! Whoops, surprise!

People are delusional if they think US companies can easily untangle themselves from China. And don't forget, for many US companies, it's a major - and fast growing - market for their products. Its population is over 3 times the size of the USA, and its economy is growing twice as fast. You think Apple, or Intel, or Boeing are just going to walk away from that massive market? Give me a break.

The other advantage China has is time. US politicians have a time horizon of the next election. China just needs to keep their people off the streets. And the beauty of a trade war is they have a nice scapegoat for any economic hardship. But again, it's not about winning, it's about China losing less than the USA. Which is exactly what will happen.

My other favorite moment - this was 2 weeks ago - was listening to CNBC talk about how Mexico was going to benefit in a big way from the US trade war with China, and how US companies in Mexico were well placed, etc., etc. Literally the next day, Trump tweets that he's going to impose tariffs on Mexico. LOL! You can run, but you can't hide!

In any case, so many warning lights are flashing red it's hard to know where to start. Buckle up!
Love your analysis.

In your own words: "Buckle up!".

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ » Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:15 pm

LiterallyIronic wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:24 pm
ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:47 am
LiterallyIronic wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:45 am
Prahasaurus wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:35 am
In any case, so many warning lights are flashing red it's hard to know where to start. Buckle up!
I'll get my popcorn ready. Stock market has been pretty much flat most of my career, so I really need a big dip and recovery to get some gains beyond my own contributions.
Has your entire career lasted about a year or two?
More or less. Graduated university in December 2008. Couldn't find a job for a few months before taking a job doing tech support in a call center for $9.50/hour. No money to invest. Started dating someone. Got married in 2009. Almost every dollar of in my income paid for our rent and her tuition, since she hadn't finished school yet. No money to invest. She graduated a couple years later. Finally invested my first dollar in 2012. About $2,000 that year. My income was up to $11.50/hour and my wife's was $8.25/hour. Both with university degrees. Invested another couple thousand in 2013. Whatever we could scrape together in April before the deadline. I went back to school in 2013. Virtually all of my wife's income went toward rent and my tuition. By 2015, I'd say our retirement balance was perhaps $10k.

I graduated again in 2016. This time got a job that paid $48k. At this point, I'm in my 30s. We probably put another $5k into retirement in 2016, but we were mostly focused on saving for a house down payment, and we finally managed to get pregnant after about five years of trying. Wife quits her job at the end of 2016; baby born early 2017. Cost us $12k to have the baby, which was 20% of my 2017 gross income (salary had been steadily increasing). Late 2017, we buy a house with 29% down payment. 2017 was the first year we maxed two Roth IRAs. Did it again in 2018, with increased 401k contributions. Now, in 2019, I'm putting 14% into my 401k, maxing two Roth IRAs, and paying extra on my mortgage. But the vast majority of the my investments have come since 2017, and the market run-up was largely over.

It's now been 18 years since I graduated high school, yet I've never really experienced my money in a market run-up or a market drop, because I never had money during any of those. Instead, all I had was no job opportunities in the 2008 downturn and no money to invest during the subsequent run-up. Now I have money to invest. I assume this means the market will stay flat until the day after I retire, at which point it will sink like a rock and stay down until the day after I die.
I didn't start investing serious money until the 2000s... I was very sad I had missed the last big bull market in the 90s.

For 10 years, my money went mostly sideways... it grew a decent amount by 2007, but then dropped back again in the 2008-2009 crash.

But for 10 years, I had saved... And then all that money more than tripled over the next 10 years.

Don't be so sad... It may be another 10 years, maybe more, but another big bull market will come.

You know who the luckiest ACCUMULATORS were? Not the guys who started saving in 1982. The guys who started in 1966, saved for 16 years watching their money go nowhere, and then watched all that money they had saved go up TEN times over the next 16 years.

They probably felt JUST like me in the 2000s, and just like you in last 2 years. They had missed the big 50s bull market, and were probably very sad for the first half of their career.

So don't be so negative. Another bull market will come.

Edit: Of course, I could be wrong... :) Japan, after all...
The J stands for Jay

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:30 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:15 pm


I didn't start investing serious money until the 2000s... I was very sad I had missed the last big bull market in the 90s.

For 10 years, my money went mostly sideways... it grew a decent amount by 2007, but then dropped back again in the 2008-2009 crash.

But for 10 years, I had saved... And then all that money more than tripled over the next 10 years.

Don't be so sad... It may be another 10 years, maybe more, but another big bull market will come.

You know who the luckiest ACCUMULATORS were? Not the guys who started saving in 1982. The guys who started in 1966, saved for 16 years watching their money go nowhere, and then watched all that money they had saved go up TEN times over the next 16 years.

They probably felt JUST like me in the 2000s, and just like you in last 2 years. They had missed the big 50s bull market, and were probably very sad for the first half of their career.

So don't be so negative. Another bull market will come.

Edit: Of course, I could be wrong... :) Japan, after all...
Great perspective. As to the Japan comment, if you are worried about that then invest in a Total World fund and wait for that global bull market. It may not be as big, but it will be more likely. FWIW I am only 25% International, but have no qualms with those that prefer a market portfolio as I have no strong logical reasons for my decision (mainly an emotional balance).

LiterallyIronic
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LiterallyIronic » Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:35 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:15 pm
LiterallyIronic wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:24 pm
ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:47 am
LiterallyIronic wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:45 am
Prahasaurus wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:35 am
In any case, so many warning lights are flashing red it's hard to know where to start. Buckle up!
I'll get my popcorn ready. Stock market has been pretty much flat most of my career, so I really need a big dip and recovery to get some gains beyond my own contributions.
Has your entire career lasted about a year or two?
More or less. Graduated university in December 2008. Couldn't find a job for a few months before taking a job doing tech support in a call center for $9.50/hour. No money to invest. Started dating someone. Got married in 2009. Almost every dollar of in my income paid for our rent and her tuition, since she hadn't finished school yet. No money to invest. She graduated a couple years later. Finally invested my first dollar in 2012. About $2,000 that year. My income was up to $11.50/hour and my wife's was $8.25/hour. Both with university degrees. Invested another couple thousand in 2013. Whatever we could scrape together in April before the deadline. I went back to school in 2013. Virtually all of my wife's income went toward rent and my tuition. By 2015, I'd say our retirement balance was perhaps $10k.

I graduated again in 2016. This time got a job that paid $48k. At this point, I'm in my 30s. We probably put another $5k into retirement in 2016, but we were mostly focused on saving for a house down payment, and we finally managed to get pregnant after about five years of trying. Wife quits her job at the end of 2016; baby born early 2017. Cost us $12k to have the baby, which was 20% of my 2017 gross income (salary had been steadily increasing). Late 2017, we buy a house with 29% down payment. 2017 was the first year we maxed two Roth IRAs. Did it again in 2018, with increased 401k contributions. Now, in 2019, I'm putting 14% into my 401k, maxing two Roth IRAs, and paying extra on my mortgage. But the vast majority of the my investments have come since 2017, and the market run-up was largely over.

It's now been 18 years since I graduated high school, yet I've never really experienced my money in a market run-up or a market drop, because I never had money during any of those. Instead, all I had was no job opportunities in the 2008 downturn and no money to invest during the subsequent run-up. Now I have money to invest. I assume this means the market will stay flat until the day after I retire, at which point it will sink like a rock and stay down until the day after I die.
I didn't start investing serious money until the 2000s... I was very sad I had missed the last big bull market in the 90s.

For 10 years, my money went mostly sideways... it grew a decent amount by 2007, but then dropped back again in the 2008-2009 crash.

But for 10 years, I had saved... And then all that money more than tripled over the next 10 years.

Don't be so sad... It may be another 10 years, maybe more, but another big bull market will come.

You know who the luckiest ACCUMULATORS were? Not the guys who started saving in 1982. The guys who started in 1966, saved for 16 years watching their money go nowhere, and then watched all that money they had saved go up TEN times over the next 16 years.

They probably felt JUST like me in the 2000s, and just like you in last 2 years. They had missed the big 50s bull market, and were probably very sad for the first half of their career.

So don't be so negative. Another bull market will come.

Edit: Of course, I could be wrong... :) Japan, after all...
Yep, the future is still full of possibilities. Could be some big gains awaiting in my future. But, if not, I'm ready. I invest 30% of my gross income and pay down my mortgage aggressively, so I can retire at 50 even if I only get 4% annual returns on my money. If the market gives me more, then all the better, but if not, "Fine, I'll do it myself."

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:36 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:15 pm
So don't be so negative. Another bull market will come.
When did this one end?

This just in; VTI 147.27 USD +0.24 (0.16%) Let the good times roll; beer for all. I can afford it. :sharebeer

H-Town
Posts: 1964
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town » Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:37 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:36 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:15 pm
So don't be so negative. Another bull market will come.
When did this one end?
Eventually :mrgreen:

Broken Man 1999
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Broken Man 1999 » Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:50 pm

I have never understood why anyone should care what others on an anonymous website might be doing or not doing.

So many presumptuous statements giving unasked for advice having no idea what a person's circumstances might be.

I will say it is entertaining, though.

Broken Man 1999
“If I cannot drink Bourbon and smoke cigars in Heaven than I shall not go. " -Mark Twain

ImUrHuckleberry
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ImUrHuckleberry » Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:54 pm

Looks like the world will have to end on a different trading day.

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dogagility
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by dogagility » Wed Aug 07, 2019 4:31 pm

Time to get out of the mar... whoops, spoke to soon.
Taking "risk" since 1995.

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AnalogKid22
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AnalogKid22 » Wed Aug 07, 2019 4:58 pm

Prahasaurus wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:39 am
AnalogKid22 wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:36 am
That's the point I was trying to make. This message board is intended for "Bogleheads" who should know that market-timing goes completely against Bogle's philosophy. But, for many, the temptation to buy when the market appears down is just too great.
Would you be surprised to know Bogle himself readjusted his portfolio just before the dot com crash, moving a lot of his money out of stocks and into bonds? And with that in mind, do you think Bogle was not a true Boglehead?
I see nothing wrong with rebalancing, particularly if someone feels they're taking too much risk. But, making huge purchases during small corrections and then hoping fora quick recovery is a dangerous game. I don't know the exact circumstances that caused Bogle to rebalance before the dot com crash, but, with his insider knowledge from his huge investor network, I have to assume he didn't feel comfortable with his equity exposure and decided to adjust. Selling before an expected crash isn't nearly as detrimental as making large purchases before a crash.

stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 » Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:17 pm

LiterallyIronic wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:24 pm
But the vast majority of the my investments have come since 2017, and the market run-up was largely over.
The market is cyclical, if it goes down for a few years it will come back roaring in the next cycle you just have to be patient. That is how it works.

"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." - Warren Buffet

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oldzey
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by oldzey » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:19 pm

ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:54 pm
Looks like the world will have to end on a different trading day.
dogagility wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 4:31 pm
Time to get out of the mar... whoops, spoke to soon.
Syrio says:

Image
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

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ruralavalon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ruralavalon » Thu Aug 08, 2019 10:09 am

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:17 pm
LiterallyIronic wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:24 pm
But the vast majority of the my investments have come since 2017, and the market run-up was largely over.
The market is cyclical, if it goes down for a few years it will come back roaring in the next cycle you just have to be patient. That is how it works.

"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." - Warren Buffet
I have always liked that Warren Buffet quote.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Thu Aug 08, 2019 10:17 am

AnalogKid22 wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:12 am
ruralavalon wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:05 am
ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:55 am
And we're off and falling. Seems like a lot of lay people are very scared so this could be a big one if some of the weak hands start folding.
Perhaps the 100% stock investors are learning something about risk.
Perhaps anyone who made big moves on Monday or Tuesday also learned something.
More risk more reward, my Monday buys are up form .6 to 2.82%.
Edit: Now up 1.1 to 3.33%, reverse free-fall.

surfstar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by surfstar » Thu Aug 08, 2019 1:06 pm

Riddle:
How many times does a dead-cat bounce? :twisted:


(full disclosure: we'd prefer mortgage rates to drop a bit more for a refi, a correction/recession cycle to get out of the way now, letting us buy more while low-priced, and have a nice run-up for retirement in 7-12 years. Wonder if any of those wishes will come true...?)

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Thu Aug 08, 2019 2:55 pm

surfstar wrote:
Thu Aug 08, 2019 1:06 pm
(full disclosure: we'd prefer mortgage rates to drop a bit more for a refi, a correction/recession cycle to get out of the way now, letting us buy more while low-priced, and have a nice run-up for retirement in 7-12 years. Wonder if any of those wishes will come true...?)
Wish your investments higher. Sounds like a good title for a no money down seminar.

livesoft
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by livesoft » Thu Aug 08, 2019 3:47 pm

livesoft wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:42 am
Hmm, does anybody think today might be an RBD for some things? :twisted:
Folks, that's what an RBD followed by a good day looks like. This doesn't mean that things won't tank tomorrow. Nor does it mean that the next RBD will be as nice. One cannot predict the future, but did you see how easy it was to see the past?
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retiringwhen
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by retiringwhen » Thu Aug 08, 2019 4:00 pm

livesoft wrote:
Thu Aug 08, 2019 3:47 pm
One cannot predict the future, but did you see how easy it was to see the past?
:shock: :sharebeer

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Rowan Oak
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Rowan Oak » Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:33 pm

livesoft wrote:
Thu Aug 08, 2019 3:47 pm
livesoft wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:42 am
Hmm, does anybody think today might be an RBD for some things? :twisted:
Folks, that's what an RBD followed by a good day looks like. This doesn't mean that things won't tank tomorrow. Nor does it mean that the next RBD will be as nice. One cannot predict the future, but did you see how easy it was to see the past?
Yes!
“If you can get good at destroying your own wrong ideas, that is a great gift.” – Charlie Munger

LiterallyIronic
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LiterallyIronic » Fri Aug 09, 2019 9:20 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:36 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:15 pm
So don't be so negative. Another bull market will come.
When did this one end?
If you ask me, it ended January 2018. Dow Jones is currently lower than it was then and has spent more time below the January 2018 level than above it. A bull market, to me, isn't "whatever happens between 20% dips." It needs to be actively and continually increasing at a good clip for me to consider it a bull market. This is a stagnant market.

The Dow is currently at 26,222. Imagine if it stayed at exactly 26,222, never going up or down even one point, for the next 100 years. Are you going to be partying about the 100-year bull market? I'm not.

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