U.S. stocks in free fall

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stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 » Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:18 pm

what? it was recovering beautifully this morning and then I just saw this news :oops:

TaxingAccount
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TaxingAccount » Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:18 pm

.....
Last edited by TaxingAccount on Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:24 pm, edited 4 times in total.

livesoft
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by livesoft » Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:19 pm

Bond ETFs are lighting up the screens with SELL signals. Everybody made their money market timing bonds the past few weeks, right?
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azanon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by azanon » Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:23 pm

Welp - my gold ETF and Zero-coupon Treasury ETF are shooting way up (~ +2% intraday). That generally means a free fall for stocks, heh.

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:44 pm

livesoft wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:19 pm
Bond ETFs are lighting up the screens with SELL signals. Everybody made their money market timing bonds the past few weeks, right?
TMF was up about 5% today. To bad I moved some to UPRO 1st.

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:45 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:18 pm
what? it was recovering beautifully this morning and then I just saw this news :oops:
Response to the POTUS tweet on new China tariffs.

blackcat allie
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by blackcat allie » Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:47 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 12:50 pm
firebirdparts wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 12:46 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 10:48 am
Buy the dips when they don't agree with the numbers. :greedy
Missed it by that much
Image
I got whiplashed, now is the time to buy the "V".
Good thinking, 99!
“Nothing in life is as important as you think it is while you are thinking about it.” - Daniel Kahneman

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andronikus
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by andronikus » Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:52 pm

TaxingAccount wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:18 pm
10yr yield is down 6% today
New record I think (for one day)
Last edited by andronikus on Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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andronikus
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by andronikus » Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:55 pm

duplicate post.
Last edited by andronikus on Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.

NerdicSkier
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by NerdicSkier » Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:56 pm

So today of all days I placed orders to sell 50% of my bond holdings (in total bond market mutual funds) and then buy an intermediate term bond ETF. I decided to cancel the orders, with my luck there would be rockets in the south china sea tonight.

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:00 pm

NerdicSkier wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:56 pm
So today of all days I placed orders to sell 50% of my bond holdings (in total bond market mutual funds) and then buy an intermediate term bond ETF. I decided to cancel the orders, with my luck there would be rockets in the south china sea tonight.
Aren’t these funds nearly identical? Why would you be nervous of that swap?

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by oldcomputerguy » Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:00 pm

andronikus wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:55 pm
andronikus wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:52 pm
TaxingAccount wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:18 pm
10yr yield is down 6% today
New record I think. (edit: in one day)
Just as a reminder, if you want to edit your post after it's posted, you can do so with the "pencil" button just above the text of the post.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by NerdicSkier » Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:10 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:00 pm
NerdicSkier wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:56 pm
So today of all days I placed orders to sell 50% of my bond holdings (in total bond market mutual funds) and then buy an intermediate term bond ETF. I decided to cancel the orders, with my luck there would be rockets in the south china sea tonight.
Aren’t these funds nearly identical? Why would you be nervous of that swap?
As far as I know, the mutual funds would settle at today's close and I wouldn't be able to buy the etf until tomorrow or later. I couldn't be bothered to see if there was a way to do it simultaneously. I didn't think I'd have much risk exposure sitting in cash until I buy the etf but with today's activity I think I'll hold the bonds and wait for the dust to settle.

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ray.james
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ray.james » Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:12 pm

Oil market dropped 8%....Over-reaction! lol :D

edit: Just for more kicks
yesterday CNBC: fed dropped rates but confusing guidance, market falls
Today morning: market raises in anticipation of fed more rates later this year.

Can this be any more ridiculous? Its as if a 7 year old child is asked for imagination in headlines.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939

TaxingAccount
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TaxingAccount » Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:16 pm

.....
Last edited by TaxingAccount on Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.

rascott
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rascott » Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:16 pm

Wow....volatility is back with a bang for August.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:18 pm

ray.james wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:12 pm
Oil market dropped 8%....Over-reaction! lol :D

edit: Just for more kicks
yesterday CNBC: fed dropped rates but confusing guidance, market falls
Today morning: market raises in anticipation of fed more rates later this year.

Can this be any more ridiculous? Its as if a 7 year old child is asked for imagination in headlines.
One of today's numbers did not meet expectations raising hopes of another rate cut or two this year. The algorithms are on top of this so buy VTI.

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:33 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:18 pm
ray.james wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:12 pm
Oil market dropped 8%....Over-reaction! lol :D

edit: Just for more kicks
yesterday CNBC: fed dropped rates but confusing guidance, market falls
Today morning: market raises in anticipation of fed more rates later this year.

Can this be any more ridiculous? Its as if a 7 year old child is asked for imagination in headlines.
One of today's numbers did not meet expectations raising hopes of another rate cut or two this year. The algorithms are on top of this so buy VTI.
Trump tweet, no?

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:39 pm

NerdicSkier wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:10 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:00 pm
NerdicSkier wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:56 pm
So today of all days I placed orders to sell 50% of my bond holdings (in total bond market mutual funds) and then buy an intermediate term bond ETF. I decided to cancel the orders, with my luck there would be rockets in the south china sea tonight.
Aren’t these funds nearly identical? Why would you be nervous of that swap?
As far as I know, the mutual funds would settle at today's close and I wouldn't be able to buy the etf until tomorrow or later. I couldn't be bothered to see if there was a way to do it simultaneously. I didn't think I'd have much risk exposure sitting in cash until I buy the etf but with today's activity I think I'll hold the bonds and wait for the dust to settle.
Ah I missed the MF to ETF aspect. For the future (or for this transaction) it is fairly easy to swap from an ETF to MF or vise-versa without losing much time in the market.

In your case I would wait until market close is approaching (the more volatile the holding, the closer you'd want to be, but anytime after 3pm EST would be fine for a bond fund). Place a sell order on the mutual fund. Estimate how much of the ETF to purchase to match your MF holding (will need to estimate what the MF holding will be worth at close via an equivalent ETF's daily change and the prior days NAV) and place the ETF purchase. Once the market closes and the MF transaction is complete check and see how well you guessed on the ETF; you'll either have a surplus of cash which you can withdraw (or invest elsewhere) once settled, or you'll have a (hopefully) small negative value shown in your account which can be topped off with a cash contribution. Everything will settle in time and you're set to go.

Even easier if starting with an ETF as you can see exactly how much you made in the sale (again, do it close to market close) and can enter a buy on the MF for that exact amount.

stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 » Thu Aug 01, 2019 3:13 pm

Small Cap Value whiplash... from +1% earlier this morning to -2% at close!!!!

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Thu Aug 01, 2019 3:18 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:33 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:18 pm
ray.james wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:12 pm
Oil market dropped 8%....Over-reaction! lol :D

edit: Just for more kicks
yesterday CNBC: fed dropped rates but confusing guidance, market falls
Today morning: market raises in anticipation of fed more rates later this year.

Can this be any more ridiculous? Its as if a 7 year old child is asked for imagination in headlines.
One of today's numbers did not meet expectations raising hopes of another rate cut or two this year. The algorithms are on top of this so buy VTI.
Trump tweet, no?
No real numbers from the number people.
Construction spending in the U.S. falls 1.3% in June

TropikThunder
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TropikThunder » Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:18 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:39 pm
In your case I would wait until market close is approaching (the more volatile the holding, the closer you'd want to be, but anytime after 3pm EST would be fine for a bond fund). Place a sell order on the mutual fund. Estimate how much of the ETF to purchase to match your MF holding (will need to estimate what the MF holding will be worth at close via an equivalent ETF's daily change and the prior days NAV) and place the ETF purchase. Once the market closes and the MF transaction is complete check and see how well you guessed on the ETF; you'll either have a surplus of cash which you can withdraw (or invest elsewhere) once settled, or you'll have a (hopefully) small negative value shown in your account which can be topped off with a cash contribution. Everything will settle in time and you're set to go.
Yeah it doesn't look like you are allowed to submit this order if you don't have the money available in your settlement fund, but the "warning" pop-up is just informational and doesn't block the trade.

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:34 pm

Thanks to my bond-heavy portfolio, it was only down .07% today. Treasuries did great.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:42 pm

Bluce wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:34 pm
Thanks to my bond-heavy portfolio, it was only down .07% today. Treasuries did great.
My TMF did superb indeed!

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Thu Aug 01, 2019 9:21 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:42 pm
Bluce wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:34 pm
Thanks to my bond-heavy portfolio, it was only down .07% today. Treasuries did great.
My TMF did superb indeed!
Yes, I see it was up 1.45%. :) <----- EDIT: Oops, that was dollars. It was up 5.8%! :sharebeer

I have SCHR (Schwab IT Treasuries) it was up .58%, and TLH (10-20 year Treas) which was up 1.21%. My other BFs were all up as well.

I also have VWIAX -- apparently the bond holdings pulled it up .22%.

stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 » Thu Aug 01, 2019 9:29 pm

VBILX (VG Intermediate Bond) up sharply as well.. my 20% allocation acted as a great ballast, I think Bonds are going to be a great asset class in the next couple of years as interest rates go zero bound which I feel they will.

Those with 100% Stock portfolio, god bless them... going to require nerves of steel with all this volatility which I feel is coming up similar to last quarter of 2018 :D

Yohanson
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Yohanson » Thu Aug 01, 2019 9:34 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 9:29 pm
VBILX (VG Intermediate Bond) up sharply as well.. my 20% allocation acted as a great ballast, I think Bonds are going to be a great asset class in the next couple of years as interest rates go zero bound which I feel they will.

Those with 100% Stock portfolio, god bless them... going to require nerves of steel with all this volatility which I feel is coming up similar to last quarter of 2018 :D
I hope it stays down tomorrow because my 401K+Catch up goes in tomorrow. I like getting a discount.

stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 » Thu Aug 01, 2019 10:31 pm

Yohanson wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 9:34 pm
I hope it stays down tomorrow because my 401K+Catch up goes in tomorrow. I like getting a discount.
I think you will get your wish... Asian markets are collapsing (albeit reaction to the US) but US futures are also RED. Nikkei is down 2.5%!

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky » Fri Aug 02, 2019 5:58 am

Yohanson wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 9:34 pm

I hope it stays down tomorrow because my 401K+Catch up goes in tomorrow. I like getting a discount.
Spoken like a true Boglehead!
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

minimalistmarc
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by minimalistmarc » Fri Aug 02, 2019 6:20 am

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 9:29 pm
VBILX (VG Intermediate Bond) up sharply as well.. my 20% allocation acted as a great ballast, I think Bonds are going to be a great asset class in the next couple of years as interest rates go zero bound which I feel they will.

Those with 100% Stock portfolio, god bless them... going to require nerves of steel with all this volatility which I feel is coming up similar to last quarter of 2018 :D
100% equities here. This is not volatility. I’m accumulating so huge, sustained drops are most welcome

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Aug 02, 2019 7:35 am

minimalistmarc wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 6:20 am
100% equities here. This is not volatility. I’m accumulating so huge, sustained drops are most welcome
US has a long way to go for even a correction. The rest of the World, especially China, are free-falling and will beat US to a correction.

US jobs and hourly earnings are up for July, buy and hold VTI. :greedy

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ruralavalon » Fri Aug 02, 2019 8:31 am

Bluce wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:34 pm
Thanks to my bond-heavy portfolio, it was only down .07% today. Treasuries did great.
With our 50% bond allocation in Vanguard Intermediate-term Bond Index Fund (VBILX) (up 0.85%) our portfolio was down just 0.08% yesterday :) .

Total market was down 0.97%.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

TaxingAccount
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TaxingAccount » Fri Aug 02, 2019 10:08 am

.....
Last edited by TaxingAccount on Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Aug 02, 2019 10:17 am

My buy bots are lighting up like a slot machine. I just transferred money from my venture capital fund; now is the time to buy. :greedy

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky » Fri Aug 02, 2019 10:20 am

TaxingAccount wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 10:08 am
just sold everything
Are you really a Boglehead?
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 » Fri Aug 02, 2019 10:48 am

at the moment just a garden variety 3.5% pullback

CoastalWinds
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CoastalWinds » Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:27 am

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 9:29 pm
VBILX (VG Intermediate Bond) up sharply as well.. my 20% allocation acted as a great ballast, I think Bonds are going to be a great asset class in the next couple of years as interest rates go zero bound which I feel they will.
If rates are zero-bound, bonds will be a good asset class but stocks will be a great asset class.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:46 am

CoastalWinds wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:27 am
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 9:29 pm
VBILX (VG Intermediate Bond) up sharply as well.. my 20% allocation acted as a great ballast, I think Bonds are going to be a great asset class in the next couple of years as interest rates go zero bound which I feel they will.
If rates are zero-bound, bonds will be a good asset class but stocks will be a great asset class.
How did that work for you in 2008 as bond rates headed towards 0?

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid » Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:56 am

Market is down again today. Attribute it to the three T's: tweets, tariffs, trade. It used to be that a slip of the lip could sink a ship, in modern parlance a tweet can sink a stock market.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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JonnyDVM
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by JonnyDVM » Fri Aug 02, 2019 12:05 pm

Feeling rebalancy today
Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple. -Dr. Seuss

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IlikeJackB
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by IlikeJackB » Fri Aug 02, 2019 12:19 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:56 am
Market is down again today. Attribute it to the three T's: tweets, tariffs, trade. It used to be that a slip of the lip could sink a ship, in modern parlance a tweet can sink a stock market.
Actually, you could combine them into one "big" T.
"Do what you will, the capital is at hazard." Justice Samuel Putnam, Harvard College vs Amory, 1830. The "Prudent Man Rule."

fanmail
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by fanmail » Fri Aug 02, 2019 12:57 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 10:17 am
My buy bots are lighting up like a slot machine. I just transferred money from my venture capital fund; now is the time to buy. :greedy
I bought a little VTI today as well. Nice little discount to the ATH, but could hurt short term.

CoastalWinds
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CoastalWinds » Fri Aug 02, 2019 1:30 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:46 am
CoastalWinds wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:27 am
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 9:29 pm
VBILX (VG Intermediate Bond) up sharply as well.. my 20% allocation acted as a great ballast, I think Bonds are going to be a great asset class in the next couple of years as interest rates go zero bound which I feel they will.
If rates are zero-bound, bonds will be a good asset class but stocks will be a great asset class.
How did that work for you in 2008 as bond rates headed towards 0?
Hmm, what about “don’t fight the Fed?” It seems like bad news is still good news as it relates to the Fed serving punch.

anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by anoop » Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:36 pm

CoastalWinds wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 1:30 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:46 am
CoastalWinds wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:27 am
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 9:29 pm
VBILX (VG Intermediate Bond) up sharply as well.. my 20% allocation acted as a great ballast, I think Bonds are going to be a great asset class in the next couple of years as interest rates go zero bound which I feel they will.
If rates are zero-bound, bonds will be a good asset class but stocks will be a great asset class.
How did that work for you in 2008 as bond rates headed towards 0?
Hmm, what about “don’t fight the Fed?” It seems like bad news is still good news as it relates to the Fed serving punch.
Indeed, DNFTF (do not fight the fed). But right now the fed thinks asset values are elevated, so they are not really targeting asset values. There are 2 other problems right now despite elevated stock prices -- GDP and inflation seem to both be falling, and some leading indicators are also pointing to slower growth. Still growth nevertheless, but it's slowing. And I think they would like to see growth higher without excessive inflation (but avoiding deflation), hence the "insurance" rate cut. They are not yet at the point where they care about stocks (they would actually like to see them lower), but if it gets to that, they can always buy some like the BoJ.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by BanquetBeer » Fri Aug 02, 2019 3:37 pm

Gosh, held some company RSU to get the dividend (about 5 days from vest to ex div, as predicted recovered loss value in a day) - put in a sell limit order. Now I'll be waiting an indeterminate amount of time to get the cash as all stocks have cratered. There goes my bet on 1% of my portfolio value :( lol

At least my 401k contribution hits today.

I suppose I could sell now at a $300 loss but I'm in a mood to gamble. How long do you think this drop will last? Will we backtrack on the tariff under pressure from stock losses, will the market adsorb the news and move on, or will there be a superficial 'trade deal' so we can save face? I don't think we have reached a tipping point yet - impact wont even be felt for a month.

Since I set my budget to spending and investing, it feels like I'm living paycheck to paycheck (no more accumulation and manual stock purchases)

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid » Fri Aug 02, 2019 3:51 pm

IlikeJackB wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 12:19 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:56 am
Market is down again today. Attribute it to the three T's: tweets, tariffs, trade. It used to be that a slip of the lip could sink a ship, in modern parlance a tweet can sink a stock market.
Actually, you could combine them into one "big" T.
I have gotten warnings, so I just leave it there.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by surfstar » Fri Aug 02, 2019 4:04 pm

Stinky wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 10:20 am
TaxingAccount wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 10:08 am
just sold everything
Are you really a Boglehead?
I'm guessing no...
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=285484&p=4638622#p4638622
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=80065&p=4625972#p4625972

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Fri Aug 02, 2019 4:09 pm

BanquetBeer wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 3:37 pm

How long do you think this drop will last? Will we backtrack on the tariff under pressure from stock losses, will the market adsorb the news and move on, or will there be a superficial 'trade deal' so we can save face? I don't think we have reached a tipping point yet - impact wont even be felt for a month.

I would wager there won't be any sort of superficial trade deal until the Fed has another rate cut.

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Fri Aug 02, 2019 4:15 pm

So the S&P has "plummeted" to where it was on June 18.

YAWN. :shock:

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J G Bankerton
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Joined: Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:30 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Aug 02, 2019 4:26 pm

fanmail wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 12:57 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 10:17 am
My buy bots are lighting up like a slot machine. I just transferred money from my venture capital fund; now is the time to buy. :greedy
I bought a little VTI today as well. Nice little discount to the ATH, but could hurt short term.
My last buy at 149.50 is up 0.05%. Let the good times roll; the numbers are good.

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