I'm inclined to agree. Many around here have no problem delaying retirement by 5-10 years so they can go from a 4% to a 3% or lower withdrawal rate, but it's ludicrous to suggest that the U.S. stock market could do again what it's already done before?gmaynardkrebs wrote: ↑Wed May 15, 2019 8:51 pmIf you mean extremely unlikely events, (eg, the fall of the US gov; an asteroid strike, etc,) that's one thing, However, thirty or more years of flat real returns in the stock market is not that IMO. It can and should be planned for, as many people here do via diversification, high savings rates, and common sense.Silence Dogood wrote: ↑Wed May 15, 2019 7:41 pmI completely agree!mariezzz wrote: ↑Tue May 14, 2019 4:42 pmOr, more likely for people following the BH approach, the risk that a 60 year old, entering retirement at the beginning of a 30 year stagnation in the stock market, cognizant of SWR issues, decreases spending by cutting out unnecessary spending on consumer goods, travel, and restaurant, and dies at age 92 with money in the bank.Silence Dogood wrote: ↑Tue May 14, 2019 9:10 amI'm guessing the market has gone down lately?
I don't bother checking, but I can always get a good idea based on the most recent threads (for example, "100% stocks" threads when the market is doing really well).
Anyway, which is the greater risk?:
The risk that a 60 year old, entering retirement, ends up running out of money, due to a 30 year stagnation in the stock market.
The risk that a 60 year old, about to enter retirement, but fearing stock market stagnation, works an extra 10 years, but then dies at age 70.
There are no guarantees in life.
There's risk in worrying unnecessarily. People with such anxiety may find ways to rationalize it, but allowing anxiety about a highly unlikely (<.1%) scenario to substantially affect one's financial decisions is far more likely to cause people to run out of money in retirement (this is the reason why a 20/80 AA isn't recommended for people in the accumulation phase).
What is the point of this thread?
I'm not saying that long-term stagnation couldn't happen, but what are we going to do about it even if it does?
We can't plan our lives based on the potential for unlikely events when it comes at great expense to likely events.
On a related note, many are quick to dismiss something like the Great Depression ever occurring again. While I tend to be an optimistic person, and I'm certainly an aggressive investor, I cannot see how people are so quick to dismiss the mere possibility of such an event. Depending on one's age, that was something that many people's parents went through. It wasn't a time long ago in a galaxy far, far away.