That's enough for me in 2019

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Carol88888
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by Carol88888 » Mon Apr 29, 2019 2:02 pm

Still short?

Dudley
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by Dudley » Mon Apr 29, 2019 2:17 pm

MT put the short in at QQQ=185 and its currently at ~191 so only 3% down. I doubt MT would be perturbed by that.
MT mentioned this position is largely a hedge so I guess the market going up makes him more secure in his job remuneration.

H-Town
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by H-Town » Mon Apr 29, 2019 2:40 pm

Carol88888 wrote:
Mon Apr 29, 2019 2:02 pm
Still short?
Double or nothing. Go big or go home.

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dogagility
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by dogagility » Mon Apr 29, 2019 4:22 pm

Carol88888 wrote:
Mon Apr 29, 2019 2:02 pm
Still short?
6' :D
Taking "risk" since 1995.

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market timer
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by market timer » Mon Apr 29, 2019 8:40 pm

Dudley wrote:
Mon Apr 29, 2019 2:17 pm
MT put the short in at QQQ=185 and its currently at ~191 so only 3% down. I doubt MT would be perturbed by that.
MT mentioned this position is largely a hedge so I guess the market going up makes him more secure in his job remuneration.
All true and QQQs are down ~1% after hours (at 189.4) thanks to Google. Despite the market seeming to climb ever higher, day after day, I'm not in the red by much.

Dudley
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by Dudley » Thu May 09, 2019 3:20 pm

QQQ back at ~185.

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market timer
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by market timer » Mon May 13, 2019 9:09 pm

Out of most of the QQQ short at ~179 today. Added a small position (8%) to int'l equities. Used the rally in 5-year Treasuries (to under 2.2% yield) to hedge duration on my investment grade bond fund.

New allocation:
10% gold
5% silver
15% crude oil and oil majors
10% long term bonds
-8% US equities
8% int'l lequities
60% cash and duration-hedged intermediate term investment grade bonds

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baconavocado
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by baconavocado » Mon May 13, 2019 9:23 pm

market timer wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 9:09 pm
Out of most of the QQQ short at ~179 today. Added a small position (8%) to int'l equities. Used the rally in 5-year Treasuries (to under 2.2% yield) to hedge duration on my investment grade bond fund.

New allocation:
10% gold
5% silver
15% crude oil and oil majors
10% long term bonds
-8% US equities
8% int'l lequities
60% cash and duration-hedged intermediate term investment grade bonds
Man, I remember when I was in my 30s and I thought I knew where the market was going by reading the news. Those were the days . . .

Dudley
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by Dudley » Tue May 14, 2019 10:47 am

market timer wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 9:09 pm
Out of most of the QQQ short at ~179 today
Why ? What, in your perception, changed ?

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market timer
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by market timer » Tue May 14, 2019 11:34 am

Dudley wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 10:47 am
market timer wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 9:09 pm
Out of most of the QQQ short at ~179 today
Why ? What, in your perception, changed ?
With my long run asset allocation, I try to achieve a feeling of indifference with respect to price movements. This doesn't necessarily mean a 100% cash allocation. I could own some equities and not care about price movements if, say, I viewed a selloff as an opportunity to invest more at better risk/return.

I rationalized the small short position I entered into in March as a risk reduction trade. Really, it was mostly speculative, and I was hoping to profit from a decline in share prices. I realized this much more clearly as the market was declining. After the decline happened, I adjusted to my current position where I feel less invested in the direction of the market.

My view remains that bonds and stocks are not likely to offer attractive returns from these levels. However, I'm content to express this view through a conservative allocation, rather than an outright short.

Dudley
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by Dudley » Wed May 15, 2019 7:57 am

market timer wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 9:09 pm
With my long run asset allocation, I try to achieve a feeling of indifference with respect to price movements.
Then what is your rationale for holding 30% in gold + precious metals (which I imagine could be volatile) ?

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market timer
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by market timer » Wed May 15, 2019 8:14 am

Dudley wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 7:57 am
market timer wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 9:09 pm
With my long run asset allocation, I try to achieve a feeling of indifference with respect to price movements.
Then what is your rationale for holding 30% in gold + precious metals (which I imagine could be volatile) ?
I have 15% in precious metals and another 15% in long-dated oil futures and oil majors. The purpose of these investments is to preserve purchasing power over long periods of time. You could say, why not hold long duration TIPS instead? There are three reasons:

1. Taxation: With precious metals, I can defer taxes until I sell, ideally realizing capital gains during early retirement, rather than earning interest during peak earning years.

2. Currency agnostic: Unclear whether I'll retire in the US, Asia, or Europe.

3. Skepticism of monetary policy: Most of the world's monetary systems are less than a couple generations old, and are clearly generating unsustainable debt trajectories. There's a Chinese proverb that wealth doesn't pass three generations, which might be relevant here. I'm not betting everything on a collapse, but I'm prepared for that scenario.

HEDGEFUNDIE
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by HEDGEFUNDIE » Wed May 15, 2019 1:18 pm

market timer wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 8:14 am
Dudley wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 7:57 am
market timer wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 9:09 pm
With my long run asset allocation, I try to achieve a feeling of indifference with respect to price movements.
Then what is your rationale for holding 30% in gold + precious metals (which I imagine could be volatile) ?
I have 15% in precious metals and another 15% in long-dated oil futures and oil majors. The purpose of these investments is to preserve purchasing power over long periods of time. You could say, why not hold long duration TIPS instead? There are three reasons:

1. Taxation: With precious metals, I can defer taxes until I sell, ideally realizing capital gains during early retirement, rather than earning interest during peak earning years.

2. Currency agnostic: Unclear whether I'll retire in the US, Asia, or Europe.

3. Skepticism of monetary policy: Most of the world's monetary systems are less than a couple generations old, and are clearly generating unsustainable debt trajectories. There's a Chinese proverb that wealth doesn't pass three generations, which might be relevant here. I'm not betting everything on a collapse, but I'm prepared for that scenario.
If the global monetary system fails, economic growth will plummet along with demand for oil.

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market timer
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Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Post by market timer » Wed May 15, 2019 7:17 pm

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 1:18 pm
If the global monetary system fails, economic growth will plummet along with demand for oil.
The last time there was a breakdown of western monetary systems, 1971, it was followed by a period of skyrocketing commodity prices and slowing economic growth. It's not an investment outlook, just something I'd like to be hedged against.

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