Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

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Bongleur
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Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by Bongleur » Mon May 13, 2019 7:15 am

We are constantly reminded about making a plan that your spouse or relative can handle. But there will come a time when they can't or won't.

It occurs to me that although a professional (CPA or fee-only fiducary advisor) has the background to understand how to run any sort of homebrew or internet-derived plan or spreadsheet, they are probably not going to be _willing_ to do it because of potential liability.

There exist SWR tools which they pay money for, and that goes along with some measure of liability protection. Those tools are always updated with the correct dataset. Can a pro even justify using "amateur" methods when the commercial tools are accepted by regulators as being Good Practice?

Is a pro going to take the liability of entering the your required data manually? Your spreadsheet might have a script that calls in data over the internet -- but it will eventually break when the website you are using changes. Or when the way an internet connection is made changes (Javascript anyone? Will FTP survive?).

Does the input and/or output of your plan call for ANY judgement calls? Like exactly what % draw to take this year. If so, the pro would probably feel better explaining the options to someone else who makes the actual decision on what to do. Let's not even think about rebalancing rules, or which assets to draw cash from.

And if you stay healthy until near the end of your assets, you won't have enough left to pay the fee for an Assets Under Management type to take over all the thinking.

So is there really any option but to buy an SPIA when there's nobody left to run your SWR system? Note that by the time you realize (or are told) that you can't handle it yourself anymore, you are no longer competent to legally decide which professional SWR system is best for you -- which amounts to choosing the professional, since there are many professional tools they can subscribe to.
Last edited by Bongleur on Mon May 13, 2019 7:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by abuss368 » Mon May 13, 2019 7:18 am

We have thought about this much over the years. Personally I am thankful for Vanguard starting the PAS service. If something happens, I told my spouse to call Vanguard. Their fee is more than worth it.
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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by Bongleur » Mon May 13, 2019 7:22 am

abuss368 wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:18 am
We have thought about this much over the years. Personally I am thankful for Vanguard starting the PAS service. If something happens, I told my spouse to call Vanguard. Their fee is more than worth it.
Except that we are using our "personal" SWR systems because we believe they give significantly better performance than what we could buy. So the odds of your SWR succeeding suddenly drop.
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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by ljb1234 » Mon May 13, 2019 7:24 am

Great question... A 3 fund (which I use) could probably survive without any rebalancing, but someone would still have to decide which of the 3 funds to extract the expenses from. A novice might be overwhelmed, especially if you have large balances.
The alternative is to switch to a single fund, such as a LifeStrategy, a Target Date, or just a Balanced Fund. No need to do any type of rebalancing, just take whatever percentage is required.

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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by abuss368 » Mon May 13, 2019 7:27 am

Bongleur wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:22 am
abuss368 wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:18 am
We have thought about this much over the years. Personally I am thankful for Vanguard starting the PAS service. If something happens, I told my spouse to call Vanguard. Their fee is more than worth it.
Except that we are using our "personal" SWR systems because we believe they give significantly better performance than what we could buy. So the odds of your SWR succeeding suddenly drop.
True. However at that stage peace of mind may be thee most important.
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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by AlohaJoe » Mon May 13, 2019 7:30 am

I'm pretty sure that Trusts have been dealing with this issue for decades and are more than willing to take your money to do it.

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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by Watty » Mon May 13, 2019 7:39 am

Another problem is that even if you find a responsabile fee on financial advisor that you are happy with then he or she will eventually retire, change jobs, or die and then you will be at the mercy of whoever takes over their accounts.

Your advisor may also have cognitive decline. My parents had a traditional stock broker that they used long before the internet existed. When we were settling their estate we had difficulty in contacting him and dealing with him. It turned out that he was my parents age and must have been around 80. He only went into the office about one afternoon a week and that did not seem to be on a set schedule. He had a limited number of clients left and while I don't think he had dementia he was obviously past his mental prime.

If you don't have someone like a trusted kid that will be able to manage your finances for you then you really need to be using a team of advisors who will still function well when the individuals change.

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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by tibbitts » Mon May 13, 2019 7:44 am

Bongleur wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:22 am
abuss368 wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:18 am
We have thought about this much over the years. Personally I am thankful for Vanguard starting the PAS service. If something happens, I told my spouse to call Vanguard. Their fee is more than worth it.
Except that we are using our "personal" SWR systems because we believe they give significantly better performance than what we could buy. So the odds of your SWR succeeding suddenly drop.
Almost nobody uses their own SWR system because they believe it will significantly out-return some other reasonable SWR system by more than roughly the cost increase of the other system.

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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Mon May 13, 2019 7:44 am

Maybe, but an insurance company who sells you an SPIA most definitely will live up to contract terms.
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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by longinvest » Mon May 13, 2019 7:46 am

On this forum, SWR usually refers to the Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) portfolio withdrawal method which consists of withdrawing a fixed inflation-indexed amount of money from the portfolio. SWR is likely to result into an undesirable outcome for most of its adopters because it carries a small probability of prematurely depleting the portfolio and a high probability of letting the retiree die with a huge unspent portfolio.

Here's my simple plan:

First, I intend to use our wiki's variable-percentage withdrawal (VPW) method which allows the retiree to spend most of the portfolio using return-adjusted withdrawals. By adapting withdrawals to market returns, VPW will never prematurely deplete the portfolio. VPW is very simple; it consists of multiplying the portfolio balance, at time of withdrawal, with the percentage looked up in the VPW table to determine the current year's withdrawal amount.

Second, I intend to combine VPW with with stable lifelong income like Social Security, a pension (if any), and (if necessary) an inflation-indexed Single-Premium Immediate Annuity (inflation-indexed SPIA).

Third, around age 80, if I'm still alive, I'll consider using part (but not all) of my remaining portfolio to buy an inflation-indexed Single Premium Immediate Annuity (inflation-indexed SPIA), so that total non-portfolio income (including Social Security, pension, and other lifelong income) is sufficient to live comfortably, independently of future portfolio withdrawals, as suggested in VPW's instructions.

Fourth, we've simplified our portfolio down to a single all-in-one fund. This eliminates complexity for my wife or caretakers, if they have to take over financial management.

Finally, I don't anticipate suffering cognitive decline before age 80, but if I do, my plan is spelled out in my instructions to caretakers, including the appropriate column of the VPW Table.
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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by tibbitts » Mon May 13, 2019 7:57 am

Bongleur wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:15 am
We are constantly reminded about making a plan that your spouse or relative can handle. But there will come a time when they can't or won't.

It occurs to me that although a professional (CPA or fee-only fiducary advisor) has the background to understand how to run any sort of homebrew or internet-derived plan or spreadsheet, they are probably not going to be _willing_ to do it because of potential liability.

There exist SWR tools which they pay money for, and that goes along with some measure of liability protection. Those tools are always updated with the correct dataset. Can a pro even justify using "amateur" methods when the commercial tools are accepted by regulators as being Good Practice?

Is a pro going to take the liability of entering the your required data manually? Your spreadsheet might have a script that calls in data over the internet -- but it will eventually break when the website you are using changes. Or when the way an internet connection is made changes (Javascript anyone? Will FTP survive?).

Does the input and/or output of your plan call for ANY judgement calls? Like exactly what % draw to take this year. If so, the pro would probably feel better explaining the options to someone else who makes the actual decision on what to do. Let's not even think about rebalancing rules, or which assets to draw cash from.

And if you stay healthy until near the end of your assets, you won't have enough left to pay the fee for an Assets Under Management type to take over all the thinking.

So is there really any option but to buy an SPIA when there's nobody left to run your SWR system? Note that by the time you realize (or are told) that you can't handle it yourself anymore, you are no longer competent to legally decide which professional SWR system is best for you -- which amounts to choosing the professional, since there are many professional tools they can subscribe to.
Not be able to pay AUM? The odds of that are almost zero. If nobody will take you assets using AUM you have so few assets that it isn't really going to matter.

Of course nobody will take over your spreadsheet etc., but most people do a custom SWR plan in the hopes (and they are only hopes) that it will benefit them fractionally per year over many decades. Usually (but admittedly not always) the kind of decline you're talking about doesn't last decades. If you aren't competent to decide between SWR systems you aren't competent to buy an SPIA either so yes, somebody would have to do that for you. But I think you're mostly making up problems here, unless you're saying you plan to be completely alone with nobody to help you when you get to that stage. I don't mean some kind of financial genius to help, just someone who looks out for your best interests in a somewhat competent way. Is that what you're anticipating? If so I think your custom SWR plan is the very least of your worries.

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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by Bongleur » Mon May 13, 2019 8:16 am

AlohaJoe wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:30 am
I'm pretty sure that Trusts have been dealing with this issue for decades and are more than willing to take your money to do it.
Trust is the person or firm responsible, but begs the fundamental question of will they use your spreadsheet, and if not, what will they use?
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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by HomeStretch » Mon May 13, 2019 8:26 am

I don’t believe most outside firms/advisors will run your SWR system due to potential liability concerns. They don’t know your system and have no idea if your system is superior to their SWR system.

Needing assistance as one ages or when one experiences decline may necessitate giving up “optimizing” and increased costs related to financial and other matters. For example, a former DIY investor with cognitive decline may need to compromise by using Vanguard PAS. That means accepting a 0.3% fee and a portfolio allocation that may differ from the DIY portfolio.

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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by Bongleur » Mon May 13, 2019 8:29 am

By SWR I mean "retirement AA & decumulation plan" which ought to have a strong variable component. Which is the problem, who will be willing to make those variable decisions?
tibbitts wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:57 am
Not be able to pay AUM? The odds of that are almost zero. If nobody will take you assets using AUM you have so few assets that it isn't really going to matter.

Of course nobody will take over your spreadsheet etc., but most people do a custom SWR plan in the hopes (and they are only hopes) that it will benefit them fractionally per year over many decades. Usually (but admittedly not always) the kind of decline you're talking about doesn't last decades. If you aren't competent to decide between SWR systems you aren't competent to buy an SPIA either so yes, somebody would have to do that for you. But I think you're mostly making up problems here, unless you're saying you plan to be completely alone with nobody to help you when you get to that stage. I don't mean some kind of financial genius to help, just someone who looks out for your best interests in a somewhat competent way. Is that what you're anticipating? If so I think your custom SWR plan is the very least of your worries.
Are there any AUMs that will take less than a million? By 85 its likely less, and since you lived that long you are in danger of outliving the money.
An SPIA is a one time decision you can hire an advisor to make. And you can choose him before you become incompetent.
"Many decades?" Are you planning on retiring at 30? 60 to 80 is only 2 decades. even 4 is hardly "many."
***

If you have lived a long time then you actually need the maximum value from your money. Its no longer a theoretical long lifespan. But scrapping your method at that time seems to admit that its inferior to what you are changing to -- so why didn't you use the other from the start?

OR - your starting plan needs to make more and/or save more because you recognize that the last 10-15 years will have to succeed with an inferior method.
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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by Bongleur » Mon May 13, 2019 8:35 am

longinvest wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:46 am
Fourth, we've simplified our portfolio down to a single all-in-one fund. This eliminates complexity for my wife or caretakers, if they have to take over financial management.
Converting everything to that sort of fund would have tax consequences, so maybe planning on using a advisor to optimize that over a few years would be a viable plan.
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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by longinvest » Mon May 13, 2019 8:40 am

Bongleur wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 8:35 am
longinvest wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:46 am
Fourth, we've simplified our portfolio down to a single all-in-one fund. This eliminates complexity for my wife or caretakers, if they have to take over financial management.
Converting everything to that sort of fund would have tax consequences, so maybe planning on using a advisor to optimize that over a few years would be a viable plan.
We're planning much ahead. We're still in the accumulation phase, far away from retirement. As you say, it's important to consider the tax consequences before making such a switch later in life, after the taxable portfolio has accumulated a significant amount of capital gains.
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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by Random Walker » Mon May 13, 2019 9:22 am

Watty wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:39 am
Another problem is that even if you find a responsabile fee on financial advisor that you are happy with then he or she will eventually retire, change jobs, or die and then you will be at the mercy of whoever takes over their accounts.
I have used a fiduciary advisor for about 10 years now. One of the things I have learned is that you are hiring an entire firm with all the people and infrastructure behind your one advisor. As you say, people move on, advance, retire. I’m on my third advisor with the same firm. At first this was a bit disconcerting. Now I see it very differently. It’s given me greater appreciation for the firm as a whole and it’s professionalism. The combination of a unique individual relationship with each advisor and the uniformity of the organization, philosophy, infrastructure has given me increased peace of mind over time as advisors have changed.

Dave

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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by Random Walker » Mon May 13, 2019 9:30 am

longinvest wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 8:40 am
We're planning much ahead. We're still in the accumulation phase, far away from retirement. As you say, it's important to consider the tax consequences before making such a switch later in life, after the taxable portfolio has accumulated a significant amount of capital gains.
This is what I did when I chose an advisor. I felt that the real time for an advisor is during decumulation. But I figured it made a lot of sense to position the portfolio as early as possible during accumulation to avoid all the costs, problems, trade offs, decisions later when the portfolio is much bigger. Moreover, now that I’m older and have learned a bit more, I have a greater appreciation for the importance of being positioned correctly in the later accumulation years when retirement is in sight. Sequence of returns and left tails become big issues as retirement approaches.

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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by azanon » Mon May 13, 2019 9:35 am

Bongleur wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:15 am
So is there really any option but to buy an SPIA when there's nobody left to run your SWR system? Note that by the time you realize (or are told) that you can't handle it yourself anymore, you are no longer competent to legally decide which professional SWR system is best for you -- which amounts to choosing the professional, since there are many professional tools they can subscribe to.
I think a great option that is anything but perfect, but certainly reasonable, is Vanguard's Managed Payout fund. Yeah it has some junk Alts in there, with long/short, but it's a reasonable allocation and a smooth'ed 4% constant percentage payout, and the fund will rebalance itself. You basically do nothing. All of this for a low fee of 34 basis points which, if you compare that to Vanguard PAS, you basically get the funds for free (.34-.3=0.04).

This would be my go-to for my spouse over VPAS. She's not going to want to even talk to advisors like VPAS requires, or at least is part of their system. She just wants a deposit every month that won't go to zero.

And I'll add the smoothed constant percentage Managed Payout uses is so far superior to the "SWR retirement method (which is set a SWR in year one, then never revisit the portfolio or revise the amount)", which I consider to be garbage, or not even really a system because SWR studies were never meant to be certified as a well thought out way of generating retirement income.

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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by Katietsu » Mon May 13, 2019 10:01 am

If you live long enough, you are going to to start making compromises and giving up control in ways for more significant than custom withdrawal plans.

I keep a list of potential advisors and/or firms with my financial records who seem to have a general philosophy that I agree with. This list has changed over the last decade as options change. I would not expect them to do things exactly as I would. Furthermore, some of the optimization tricks for taxes, saving fees, etc would lose you money if you had to include the extra expense associated with a professional handling the complexity Switching from a highly personalized financial management plan to a professionally managed plan with a similar philosophy should be one of the easiest aspects of the aging process. I think having a roadmap in advance is a great idea. But, you can not know ahead where the road closures and traffic jams are going to be, so you just need to stay flexible and take it one step at a time. And accept that things might not be managed the way you would have. But, by that time, a whole lot of compromises are probably being made and investment management style is probably going to be one of the least important.

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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by AlohaJoe » Mon May 13, 2019 10:20 am

Bongleur wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 8:16 am
AlohaJoe wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:30 am
I'm pretty sure that Trusts have been dealing with this issue for decades and are more than willing to take your money to do it.
Trust is the person or firm responsible, but begs the fundamental question of will they use your spreadsheet, and if not, what will they use?
A Trustee will do whatever the Trust agreement says to do. If you want them to use your spreadsheet, then write that down and that's what they'll do. Telling them "give me $32,000 adjusted upwards by the December CPI-U number" isn't any different than "give my son $250,000 when he turns 25, another $500,000 when he turns 35, and the rest when he turns 45".

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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by One Ping » Mon May 13, 2019 11:02 am

longinvest wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:46 am
Fourth, we've simplified our portfolio down to a single all-in-one fund. This eliminates complexity for my wife or caretakers, if they have to take over financial management.
Your overall plan is somewhat similar to ours. The above statement seems to indicate that your portfolio is already in a single all-in-one fund. There are several (many?) all-in-one fund options. Just out of curiosity, which all-in-one fund are you/will you be using?

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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by longinvest » Mon May 13, 2019 3:34 pm

One Ping wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 11:02 am
longinvest wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:46 am
Fourth, we've simplified our portfolio down to a single all-in-one fund. This eliminates complexity for my wife or caretakers, if they have to take over financial management.
Your overall plan is somewhat similar to ours. The above statement seems to indicate that your portfolio is already in a single all-in-one fund. There are several (many?) all-in-one fund options. Just out of curiosity, which all-in-one fund are you/will you be using?
It's a 60/40 global stocks/bonds all-in-one ETF, the Vanguard Balanced ETF Portfolio (VBAL) which is the Canadian equivalent of the LifeStrategy Moderate Growth Fund (VSMGX) but in ETF form and with a Canadian home bias instead of a US home bias.

I'll have a work pension and I'll delay public pensions (the equivalent of Social Security) to age 70 using a fixed income bridge between retirement and 70 (see this historical thread).
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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by alex_686 » Mon May 13, 2019 3:44 pm

To the OP, they will not. You are setting them up in a almost impossible position.

I am not sure what you exact plan is or what it is based on, so some info here would be helpful, but I really can't see it working. You plan is going to be based on assumptions about the market, you goals, and investment theory.

Listing all of that is going to make for a long complex document. Hard to implement and easy to litigate. Why would anybody want to take on that burden?

And what if the market, your goals, or investment theory evolves into something else? As a very mild example, I am assuming you have a time horizon of 30+ years, but TIPS and ETFs have been around for less that that. You are hiring a professional. They are - hopefully - knowledge. Also, they are bound be regulations. What if the regulations change to precluded your plan?

I have seen lots of overly detailed plans blow up. Better to lay out goals and hire somebody competent.

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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by MotoTrojan » Mon May 13, 2019 3:49 pm

abuss368 wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:18 am
We have thought about this much over the years. Personally I am thankful for Vanguard starting the PAS service. If something happens, I told my spouse to call Vanguard. Their fee is more than worth it.
I know they'll provide assistance in building a portfolio but does PAS actually give advice on safe withdrawal amounts, tax-management, etc?

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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by One Ping » Mon May 13, 2019 4:05 pm

longinvest wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 3:34 pm
One Ping wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 11:02 am
longinvest wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:46 am
Fourth, we've simplified our portfolio down to a single all-in-one fund. This eliminates complexity for my wife or caretakers, if they have to take over financial management.
Your overall plan is somewhat similar to ours. The above statement seems to indicate that your portfolio is already in a single all-in-one fund. There are several (many?) all-in-one fund options. Just out of curiosity, which all-in-one fund are you/will you be using?
It's a 60/40 global stocks/bonds all-in-one ETF, the Vanguard Balanced ETF Portfolio (VBAL) which is the Canadian equivalent of the LifeStrategy Moderate Growth Fund (VSMGX) but in ETF form and with a Canadian home bias instead of a US home bias.
Thanks, longinvest. That's one we are looking at.

Either Life Strategy Moderate Growth (VSMGX - 60%/40%) or Balanced (VBIAX - 60%/40%)

or for the taxable account Tax-Managed Balanced (VTMFX - 50%/50%)

Why ETF instead of MF?
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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by One Ping » Mon May 13, 2019 4:09 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 3:49 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:18 am
We have thought about this much over the years. Personally I am thankful for Vanguard starting the PAS service. If something happens, I told my spouse to call Vanguard. Their fee is more than worth it.
I know they'll provide assistance in building a portfolio but does PAS actually give advice on safe withdrawal amounts, tax-management, etc?
My recollection from when I was looking into this a while back and called them was ... no. IIRC, you tell them how much you want to withdraw and they will send it to you. Don't remember exactly how they decided which fund(s) to withdraw the funds from though.
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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by Gill » Mon May 13, 2019 4:10 pm

AlohaJoe wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:30 am
I'm pretty sure that Trusts have been dealing with this issue for decades and are more than willing to take your money to do it.
No, more like doing it for centuries by corporate trustees rather than decades, and no one can do it better. Where else can you perpetual existence, years of experience, group judgment, financial responsibility, daily accessibility and a trustee who will not go on vacation, become ill or die? Yes, there is a fee for a corporate trustee but with most corporate trustees you have the investment management functions, tax preparation and administrative functions all under one roof.
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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by abuss368 » Mon May 13, 2019 4:54 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 3:49 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:18 am
We have thought about this much over the years. Personally I am thankful for Vanguard starting the PAS service. If something happens, I told my spouse to call Vanguard. Their fee is more than worth it.
I know they'll provide assistance in building a portfolio but does PAS actually give advice on safe withdrawal amounts, tax-management, etc?
Not that I’m aware of.
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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by dknightd » Mon May 13, 2019 5:02 pm

I don't expect a financial pro to take over when/if I have cognitive decline. In fact, I do not want a financial pro to take over. I'd probably choose the wrong one . . .

By the time I'm 70.5 I plan to have everything on auto pilot.

SS and and SPIA will cover our comfortable enough expenses. Monthly deposits will appear in our bank account.
RMD will be automatically sent to our bank. Investments will automatically rebalance once a year.
Taxes will be automatically be withheld.

I'll have enough in a ROTH IRA to cover somebody in nursing care for a couple or years, or to pass down to our kids, or for an unexpected splurge.

My wife knows my plan, and, knows just to leave it on auto pilot.

As long as I make it to 70 before I decline too far, we should be set.

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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by longinvest » Mon May 13, 2019 5:05 pm

One Ping wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 4:05 pm
longinvest wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 3:34 pm
One Ping wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 11:02 am
longinvest wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:46 am
Fourth, we've simplified our portfolio down to a single all-in-one fund. This eliminates complexity for my wife or caretakers, if they have to take over financial management.
Your overall plan is somewhat similar to ours. The above statement seems to indicate that your portfolio is already in a single all-in-one fund. There are several (many?) all-in-one fund options. Just out of curiosity, which all-in-one fund are you/will you be using?
It's a 60/40 global stocks/bonds all-in-one ETF, the Vanguard Balanced ETF Portfolio (VBAL) which is the Canadian equivalent of the LifeStrategy Moderate Growth Fund (VSMGX) but in ETF form and with a Canadian home bias instead of a US home bias.
Thanks, longinvest. That's one we are looking at.

Either Life Strategy Moderate Growth (VSMGX - 60%/40%) or Balanced (VBIAX - 60%/40%)

or for the taxable account Tax-Managed Balanced (VTMFX - 50%/50%)

Why ETF instead of MF?
Because Vanguard's VBAL ETF invests into 11,968 stocks and 13,471 bonds (that's a total of 25,439 securities worldwide) for a 0.25% expense ratio (0.09% more than directly holding its 7 underlying index ETFs). The closest 60/40 index mutual fund offering is the Tangerine Balanced Portfolio which has a 1.07% expense ratio (4.3 times the cost of Vanguard's ETF) and invests in fewer than 3,000 securities (no exposure to international bonds and emerging market stocks).

Also, ETFs are significantly more tax-efficient than mutual funds, in Canada.
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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by Broken Man 1999 » Mon May 13, 2019 5:19 pm

longinvest wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 5:05 pm
One Ping wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 4:05 pm
longinvest wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 3:34 pm
One Ping wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 11:02 am
longinvest wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:46 am
Fourth, we've simplified our portfolio down to a single all-in-one fund. This eliminates complexity for my wife or caretakers, if they have to take over financial management.
Your overall plan is somewhat similar to ours. The above statement seems to indicate that your portfolio is already in a single all-in-one fund. There are several (many?) all-in-one fund options. Just out of curiosity, which all-in-one fund are you/will you be using?
It's a 60/40 global stocks/bonds all-in-one ETF, the Vanguard Balanced ETF Portfolio (VBAL) which is the Canadian equivalent of the LifeStrategy Moderate Growth Fund (VSMGX) but in ETF form and with a Canadian home bias instead of a US home bias.
Thanks, longinvest. That's one we are looking at.

Either Life Strategy Moderate Growth (VSMGX - 60%/40%) or Balanced (VBIAX - 60%/40%)

or for the taxable account Tax-Managed Balanced (VTMFX - 50%/50%)

Why ETF instead of MF?
Because Vanguard's VBAL ETF invests into 11,968 stocks and 13,471 bonds (that's a total of 25,439 securities worldwide) for a 0.25% expense ratio (0.09% more than directly holding its 7 underlying index ETFs). The closest 60/40 index mutual fund offering is the Tangerine Balanced Portfolio which has a 1.07% expense ratio (4.3 times the cost of Vanguard's ETF) and invests in fewer than 3,000 securities (no exposure to international bonds and emerging market stocks).

Also, ETFs are significantly more tax-efficient than mutual funds, in Canada.
You beat me to it. A Vanguard balanced fund or ETF equivalent would probably do the trick nicely. Comes with a higher ER perhaps, but also comes with less complexity to manage.

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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by One Ping » Mon May 13, 2019 5:32 pm

longinvest wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 5:05 pm
One Ping wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 4:05 pm
longinvest wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 3:34 pm
One Ping wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 11:02 am
longinvest wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:46 am
Fourth, we've simplified our portfolio down to a single all-in-one fund. This eliminates complexity for my wife or caretakers, if they have to take over financial management.
Your overall plan is somewhat similar to ours. The above statement seems to indicate that your portfolio is already in a single all-in-one fund. There are several (many?) all-in-one fund options. Just out of curiosity, which all-in-one fund are you/will you be using?
It's a 60/40 global stocks/bonds all-in-one ETF, the Vanguard Balanced ETF Portfolio (VBAL) which is the Canadian equivalent of the LifeStrategy Moderate Growth Fund (VSMGX) but in ETF form and with a Canadian home bias instead of a US home bias.
Thanks, longinvest. That's one we are looking at.

Either Life Strategy Moderate Growth (VSMGX - 60%/40%) or Balanced (VBIAX - 60%/40%)

or for the taxable account Tax-Managed Balanced (VTMFX - 50%/50%)

Why ETF instead of MF?
Because Vanguard's VBAL ETF invests into 11,968 stocks and 13,471 bonds (that's a total of 25,439 securities worldwide) for a 0.25% expense ratio (0.09% more than directly holding its 7 underlying index ETFs). The closest 60/40 index mutual fund offering is the Tangerine Balanced Portfolio which has a 1.07% expense ratio (4.3 times the cost of Vanguard's ETF) and invests in fewer than 3,000 securities (no exposure to international bonds and emerging market stocks).

Also, ETFs are significantly more tax-efficient than mutual funds, in Canada.
Must be one of the differences between US and Canada. Vanguard Balanced mutual fund ER in US was .07% last time I checked.

Number of securities differences is well taken.

ETF's in Taxable account may be a good option to look at. Although, most of our assets are in tax-advantaged accounts where tax-efficiency considerations may not be as important.
Last edited by One Ping on Mon May 13, 2019 8:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by tibbitts » Mon May 13, 2019 7:23 pm

Bongleur wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 8:29 am
By SWR I mean "retirement AA & decumulation plan" which ought to have a strong variable component. Which is the problem, who will be willing to make those variable decisions?
tibbitts wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:57 am
Not be able to pay AUM? The odds of that are almost zero. If nobody will take you assets using AUM you have so few assets that it isn't really going to matter.

Of course nobody will take over your spreadsheet etc., but most people do a custom SWR plan in the hopes (and they are only hopes) that it will benefit them fractionally per year over many decades. Usually (but admittedly not always) the kind of decline you're talking about doesn't last decades. If you aren't competent to decide between SWR systems you aren't competent to buy an SPIA either so yes, somebody would have to do that for you. But I think you're mostly making up problems here, unless you're saying you plan to be completely alone with nobody to help you when you get to that stage. I don't mean some kind of financial genius to help, just someone who looks out for your best interests in a somewhat competent way. Is that what you're anticipating? If so I think your custom SWR plan is the very least of your worries.
Are there any AUMs that will take less than a million? By 85 its likely less, and since you lived that long you are in danger of outliving the money.
An SPIA is a one time decision you can hire an advisor to make. And you can choose him before you become incompetent.
"Many decades?" Are you planning on retiring at 30? 60 to 80 is only 2 decades. even 4 is hardly "many."
***

If you have lived a long time then you actually need the maximum value from your money. Its no longer a theoretical long lifespan. But scrapping your method at that time seems to admit that its inferior to what you are changing to -- so why didn't you use the other from the start?

OR - your starting plan needs to make more and/or save more because you recognize that the last 10-15 years will have to succeed with an inferior method.
Apparently Bogleheads are planning for 60-year retirements, so yes, that would qualify for many decades:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=280981&newpost=4541851

AUM advisers for less than $1M in assets? You'll have advisers lines up around the block for $100k.

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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by Bongleur » Mon May 13, 2019 7:33 pm

dknightd wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 5:02 pm
... I plan to have everything on auto pilot.
Investments will automatically rebalance once a year.
Taxes will be automatically be withheld.
what system does a 100% level of detail for you?
How does it know what to do with refunds of tax overpayments?
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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by Bongleur » Mon May 13, 2019 7:36 pm

tibbitts wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:23 pm
AUM advisers for less than $1M in assets? You'll have advisers lines up around the block for $100k.
I mean a good one, not some boiler room selling 12-b1 funds.
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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by dknightd » Tue May 14, 2019 5:16 am

Bongleur wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:33 pm
what system does a 100% level of detail for you?
How does it know what to do with refunds of tax overpayments?
TIAA will auto rebalance once a year for me. It is all in tax deferred, so no tax planning involved.

Taxes are an issue. I hope to get my withholding pretty close to what is due.
Somebody will still have to file every year. The refund would just get put in the bank.

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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by tibbitts » Tue May 14, 2019 7:52 am

Bongleur wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:36 pm
tibbitts wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:23 pm
AUM advisers for less than $1M in assets? You'll have advisers lines up around the block for $100k.
I mean a good one, not some boiler room selling 12-b1 funds.
That's part of the problem: you define a "good" one as one who will adopt your practices. But you know there are plenty of both good and not-so-good AUM advisers who will manage less than $1M.

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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by tibbitts » Tue May 14, 2019 7:53 am

dknightd wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 5:16 am
Bongleur wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:33 pm
what system does a 100% level of detail for you?
How does it know what to do with refunds of tax overpayments?
TIAA will auto rebalance once a year for me. It is all in tax deferred, so no tax planning involved.

Taxes are an issue. I hope to get my withholding pretty close to what is due.
Somebody will still have to file every year. The refund would just get put in the bank.
The question is who will get your withholding "close" and who will see that your taxes are filed and that the refund makes it to your bank? Ultimately life is not d-i-y.

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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by Sandtrap » Tue May 14, 2019 7:57 am

abuss368 wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:18 am
We have thought about this much over the years. Personally I am thankful for Vanguard starting the PAS service. If something happens, I told my spouse to call Vanguard. Their fee is more than worth it.
+1
I have a lot of concern as well. The other unknown is ensuring that something like this is followed up on.
IE: spouse is age 84 and can be easily influenced > beneficiary or other helpful persons convince to redirect funds :shock: , etc.

Thus, estate planning, trust provisions, etc, are so important.

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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by MnD » Tue May 14, 2019 8:01 am

This topic in general is why my IPS, including SWR strategy in retirement is a total of two sentences.
I see these complex 10 paragraph "systems" posted here lately and just shake my head.

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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by jebmke » Tue May 14, 2019 8:09 am

MnD wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 8:01 am
This topic in general is why my IPS, including SWR strategy in retirement is a total of two sentences.
I see these complex 10 paragraph "systems" posted here lately and just shake my head.
This is why I keep driving toward a simpler holding and process whenever I can. Frankly, I am more concerned about neglect than cognitive decline. I have more interesting things to do than tinker around with complex holdings or withdrawal systems.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.

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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by dknightd » Tue May 14, 2019 8:37 am

tibbitts wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 7:53 am
The question is who will get your withholding "close" and who will see that your taxes are filed and that the refund makes it to your bank? Ultimately life is not d-i-y.
If my wife or I have to hire a tax person, we will.

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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by MnD » Tue May 14, 2019 9:02 am

jebmke wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 8:09 am
MnD wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 8:01 am
This topic in general is why my IPS, including SWR strategy in retirement is a total of two sentences.
I see these complex 10 paragraph "systems" posted here lately and just shake my head.
This is why I keep driving toward a simpler holding and process whenever I can. Frankly, I am more concerned about neglect than cognitive decline. I have more interesting things to do than tinker around with complex holdings or withdrawal systems.
Not to mention that the vast majority of complex systems inevitably end up with worse outcomes, regardless of how wonderful they looked in the rear-view mirror.

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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by longinvest » Tue May 14, 2019 9:47 am

Those who intend to adopt the SWR (constant-dollar withdrawal) method, do they plan to lookup CPI-U numbers, every year, and update their withdrawal amount accordingly? Do they expect their spouse, children, or caretakers to do so, too, later?

I find the VPW method much simpler to implement (in addition to being more realistic by adapting withdrawals to market returns).
Last edited by longinvest on Tue May 14, 2019 10:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by nedsaid » Tue May 14, 2019 9:59 am

Bongleur wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:22 am
abuss368 wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 7:18 am
We have thought about this much over the years. Personally I am thankful for Vanguard starting the PAS service. If something happens, I told my spouse to call Vanguard. Their fee is more than worth it.
Except that we are using our "personal" SWR systems because we believe they give significantly better performance than what we could buy. So the odds of your SWR succeeding suddenly drop.
I can just tell you that a financial firm is just not going to this. They have their own portfolio models that they use, a cookie cutter approach, they do this so they get some economies of scale when managing client accounts. They might customize a bit but they don't have the time to design unique portfolios and withdrawal programs for each client.

I recently had one of my investment providers do a portfolio review for me and they also put together a proposal for a managed account. In this case, they have five portfolios that they use depending upon the level of risk they believe a client should take. Mostly, I wanted a review and will most likely not do a managed account at this time. What got me interested is that they couple portfolio management with ongoing financial planning which was a pretty attractive offer.
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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by Bongleur » Tue May 14, 2019 4:15 pm

Can a two sentence plan say more than "don't take out more than 4% inflation adjusted and use your best judgement to adjust AA?"
If you have a relative, you might need to convince them to look over your shoulder for a couple years to learn your system.
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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by jebmke » Tue May 14, 2019 4:44 pm

dknightd wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 8:37 am
tibbitts wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 7:53 am
The question is who will get your withholding "close" and who will see that your taxes are filed and that the refund makes it to your bank? Ultimately life is not d-i-y.
If my wife or I have to hire a tax person, we will.
I am a trained preparer so I do our taxes -- and likely will for many more years (knock on wood). But I have already identified a local firm that my spouse can hand things off to in case I become incapacitated or worse.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.

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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by willthrill81 » Tue May 14, 2019 4:52 pm

I don't think that I'll personally have much to worry about. About 70% of our retirement assets will likely be in tax-deferred accounts, and by the time that cognitive decline is likely to be an issue, I can just have Vanguard automatically sell whatever's necessary to cover my RMDs, which should be more than adequate at that time. We'll likely let our Roth accounts ride, most of the remainder of our portfolio, leaving them behind for our daughter and possible grandchildren at that point. Any unused HSA funds will likely get donated to charity.
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Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Post by NotWhoYouThink » Tue May 14, 2019 4:56 pm

Is your main requirement the withdrawal amount or the investment mix? Because I don't see how someone can force you to spend money if you don't want to, or prevent you from spending if you need long term care.

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