William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

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sleepysurf
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William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

Post by sleepysurf » Fri May 10, 2019 8:16 am

Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak at Morningstar have a new weekly podcast, called The Long View. Their first guest is William Bernstein, with his usual erudite perspectives... https://www.morningstar.com/articles/92 ... s-i-t.html
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Re: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

Post by TravelGeek » Fri May 10, 2019 10:46 am

Thank you. My list of podcast subscriptions continues to grow. Listening to all of them would be more than a full time job by now :)

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Re: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

Post by Cody6136 » Fri May 10, 2019 11:06 am

sleepysurf wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 8:16 am
Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak at Morningstar have a new weekly podcast, called The Long View. Their first guest is William Bernstein, with his usual erudite perspectives... https://www.morningstar.com/articles/92 ... s-i-t.html
Now this is news I can use!

I'm brand new here and the first book that I really tackled was Intelligent Asset Allocation. Now I'm deep into The Four Pillars of Investing.

He is a indeed erudite!

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Re: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

Post by sleepysurf » Fri May 10, 2019 11:19 am

There really wasn't much new, for those of us that have been following his work for years. However, I didn't realize he still advocates a small (~2-5%) allocation to Gold/Precious Metals. Researching this further, I found this post regarding the "rebalancing bonus" he feels it provides as a non-correlated asset class... http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/adhoc/gold.htm

I wonder how he feels about the newly announced Vanguard Commodity Strategy Fund?
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Re: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

Post by friar1610 » Fri May 10, 2019 11:55 am

TravelGeek wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 10:46 am
Thank you. My list of podcast subscriptions continues to grow. Listening to all of them would be more than a full time job by now :)
I listen to podcasts while I'm working out or walking. Guess I'll be getting more exercise! :beer
Friar1610

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Re: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

Post by TravelGeek » Fri May 10, 2019 12:08 pm

friar1610 wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 11:55 am
I listen to podcasts while I'm working out or walking. Guess I'll be getting more exercise! :beer
Same here, but I could probably spend all day in the gym or on hikes and still not complete all podcasts I am subscribed to. Granted, for some I only subscribed for select episodes, but for others I am interested in every episode. ;)

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Re: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

Post by Bill Bernstein » Fri May 10, 2019 12:20 pm

Thanks for the kind words.

Podcasts are an important part of my information flow, and given the increasing number of high quality ones, I find that I'm slowly bumping off what used to be "must listen" subscriptions as they get replaced by even better ones. Five years ago I wouldn't miss an "In Our Time." Now I have five years of it sitting on a thumb drive that's getting fuller and fuller, along with several other subscriptions I'll get to . . . someday.

Bill

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Re: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

Post by Reb Tevye » Fri May 10, 2019 6:38 pm

I thoroughly enjoyed the podcast.

Skunk in the suburbs!

I have enjoyed your many books I’ve read. Very influential to my thinking and behavior.
And with each one more distilled and more accessible, they are my top recommendations.

And love your wit and the many bon mots.
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Re: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

Post by LadyGeek » Fri May 10, 2019 7:02 pm

FYI - Bill Bernstein is William Bernstein.
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Re: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

Post by Stinky » Fri May 10, 2019 7:20 pm

sleepysurf wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 8:16 am
Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak at Morningstar have a new weekly podcast, called The Long View. Their first guest is William Bernstein, with his usual erudite perspectives... https://www.morningstar.com/articles/92 ... s-i-t.html
Thank you for the heads up on the new podcast. I've added it to my rotation.

Interestingly, my podcast app shows that there are three active podcasts that have the name "The Long View". All have issued new episodes in the last few weeks.
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Re: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

Post by Housedoc » Fri May 10, 2019 7:35 pm

Couldn't find it on Google Play

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Re: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

Post by sleepysurf » Fri May 10, 2019 7:45 pm

LadyGeek wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 7:02 pm
FYI - Bill Bernstein is William Bernstein.
LadyGeek, I see there's a Bio error on William Bernstein's Wiki Page you referenced. Under his picture, "Occupation" says he was a practicing Neurosurgeon. It should say Neurologist. The "Background" paragraph gets it right. I think he would be considered a lot sharper with his wisdom, wit, and pen, than he ever was with a scalpel!
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Re: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

Post by Housedoc » Fri May 10, 2019 8:15 pm

Housedoc wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 7:35 pm
Couldn't find it on Google Play
Found it via a different Google podcast player.

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Re: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

Post by LadyGeek » Fri May 10, 2019 8:28 pm

sleepysurf wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 7:45 pm
LadyGeek, I see there's a Bio error on William Bernstein's Wiki Page you referenced. Under his picture, "Occupation" says he was a practicing Neurosurgeon. It should say Neurologist. The "Background" paragraph gets it right. I think he would be considered a lot sharper with his wisdom, wit, and pen, than he ever was with a scalpel!
Thanks! Another wiki editor beat me to the correction, it's fixed. See: William Bernstein
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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Re: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

Post by Portfolio7 » Sat May 11, 2019 12:20 am

Bill Bernstein wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 12:20 pm
Thanks for the kind words.

Podcasts are an important part of my information flow, and given the increasing number of high quality ones, I find that I'm slowly bumping off what used to be "must listen" subscriptions as they get replaced by even better ones. Five years ago I wouldn't miss an "In Our Time." Now I have five years of it sitting on a thumb drive that's getting fuller and fuller, along with several other subscriptions I'll get to . . . someday.

Bill
Thank you, Bill, for "The Intelligent Asset Allocator". Of the twenty or so investment books I've read, It is one of the two that I found most influential.

I very much enjoyed the podcast, and thought that Jeff Ptak asked some excellent questions. I enjoyed your take on Emerging Markets; definitely some food for thought.
An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.

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Re: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

Post by bearcub » Sun May 12, 2019 7:11 am

Thanks for this. Love listening to Bill. Could feel his emotion while talking about Jack. Thankful for these two gentlemen"s insights. The world is a better place cause of them.

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Re: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

Post by gilgamesh » Sun May 12, 2019 2:14 pm

It was a very good podcast...my retirement plan closely resembles William Bernstein’s proposals, and thus interested in anything he has to say.

However, I thought the question about which areas are expensive wasn’t fully answered (around the 31:30 min mark). The answer from “50,000 feet above” was US stocks, which is a smart way of putting it. Then to the question on how that was arrived he mentioned P/E ratio, dividend yield etc. Then there was this clever observation that “equity parameters are not stationary” but it never went on to the decision of how do these factors mentioned chive with parameters not being stationary and how they are today as compared to before.

I would have loved to hear Dr.Bernstein’s take on how the various equity parameters he mentioned have evolved. How is P/E ratio valuation evolving? Etc... Especially when valuation played a dominant role in his EM discussion too.

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Re: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

Post by Retired1809 » Sun May 12, 2019 5:22 pm

Thanks for the podcast.

To confirm my understanding of what William Bernstein likes for the fixed income portion of a "geezer's" portfolio, would I be correct in inferring that he would prefer, say a Vanguard Short-term bond index to the Vanguard Total Bond index?

Also, with his preference for keeping down expenses, would I be correct to infer that William Bernstein would prefer the same Vanguard Short-term index fund to core bond funds of DoubleLine, JP Morgan, MetWest, etc.?

I ask this because of his concern about duration risk, credit risk and keeping costs low. And I use these specific funds merely as examples of asset types and not as specific fund recommendations.

Thanks.

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Re: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Sun May 12, 2019 5:36 pm

Dr. Bernstein, I just wanted to say I thoroughly enjoyed your most recent interview on Barry Ritholtz' "Masters In Business". Very entertaining and learned some new things on that podcast. Always a pleasure to hear you talk.

source: https://ritholtz.com/2019/04/mib-bill-bernstein/
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Re: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

Post by Bill Bernstein » Sun May 12, 2019 10:21 pm

Re. valuations not being stationary, what I mean is that timing using valuation parameters seems not to work out of sample; this is true in most markets it's been looked at.

For example, if you evolved valuation-based timing rules for US stocks in the 19th century, they worked well . . . . in the 19th century, which doesn't do you a lot of good. But if you carried those rules forward to the 20th century, they don't work. This is because the valuation distributions for those two centuries was different.

And I'd guess that if you carried the 20th century valuations derived rules into the 21st, the same thing will happen.

OTOH, there seems to be some evidence that there's value to overweighting relatively cheap nations/regions/categories. At the moment, the US seems to be more expensive than foreign.

Bill
Last edited by Bill Bernstein on Mon May 13, 2019 8:26 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

Post by Riprap » Sun May 12, 2019 10:47 pm

Bill Bernstein wrote:
Sun May 12, 2019 10:21 pm
At the moment, the US seems to be cheaper than foreign.
:confused

I was under the impression US was expensive relative to foreign based on a quick check of P/Es of various Vanguard Funds. I know plenty of folks dismiss P/Es so maybe it's an outdated valuation parameter but at least on a relative basis it would seem to have some merit.

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Re: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

Post by Bill Bernstein » Mon May 13, 2019 8:27 am

Typo, sorry, US more expensive than foreign, sorry.

Bill

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Re: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

Post by kingomri » Mon May 13, 2019 9:38 am

I want to echo what others have said - reading your books has been one of the best things for my education as an investor. Thank you for your writing, Bill!

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Re: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

Post by asif408 » Mon May 13, 2019 10:13 am

gilgamesh wrote:
Sun May 12, 2019 2:14 pm
However, I thought the question about which areas are expensive wasn’t fully answered (around the 31:30 min mark). The answer from “50,000 feet above” was US stocks, which is a smart way of putting it.
Honestly, I think he's spelled it out in most of his books and writings and in previous interviews. I've found Dr. Bernstein tends not to make specific, extreme calls, say like a Jeremy Grantham, but rather gives you a framework for thinking about things and let's you arrive at conclusions for yourself (of course, nudging you in that direction). Based on his writings and interviews, in addition to his statement that developed ex-US and EM stocks look cheaper than US stocks, he would probably also add that value stocks look cheaper than growth stocks throughout most of the world, and large cap stocks appear cheaper than small cap stocks (though maybe not quite as much as a few years ago).

But I'm sure he'll chime in if I am wrong.

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Re: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

Post by POLO » Tue May 14, 2019 1:56 pm

Nice. Is the history on manias book still happening?

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Re: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

Post by tomwood » Sun May 26, 2019 7:51 pm

sleepysurf wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 11:19 am
There really wasn't much new, for those of us that have been following his work for years. However, I didn't realize he still advocates a small (~2-5%) allocation to Gold/Precious Metals. Researching this further, I found this post regarding the "rebalancing bonus" he feels it provides as a non-correlated asset class... http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/adhoc/gold.htm

I wonder how he feels about the newly announced Vanguard Commodity Strategy Fund?
On the WCI podcast, Dr. Bernstein mentioned the category of people he’d suggest include precious metals to be those who enjoy using spreadsheets for rebalancing and people who can more or less stomach the volatility and stay the course. Does anyone know how often he’s suggesting people rebalance their portfolio to maintain the 2.5% precious metals?

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