Buy a house or wait in bay area

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ray.james
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Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by ray.james » Fri Mar 24, 2017 4:54 pm

New post here: viewtopic.php?f=1&t=214685&p=4492880#p4492880

Hello bogleheads,
We see numerous threads on this topic and would welcome advice from folks who have been down the path.

Our stats in Brief:
Bay area double income couple. Newborn at home.(going to day care in 3 months)
Have 20% downpayment for 750-850k range house. (plus 3 months EFund only after that.)
Current home to office - 5-10 mins.
PITI + 0.5% upkeep will be 30%. Current rent is 15% of income.
Tax rate:28+9.3% which brings PITI+ upkeep to ~24%
We max all retirement accounts and will continue.

Things for:
Imputed rent
Inflation hedge
Out of crappy apartment(prob not with old houses.)

Things against:
40 minute commute. Not bad though for bay area. This is in traffic.(25 mins weekend)
Daycare + commute expenses will start to show on budget soon.
Wife works from home. But might need to change job which will add another commute.

We like the new area and houses we are seeing. We are priced out of our current area which is on peninsula. Our rent is below market by almost 15%. I think this will continue even thought we expect mild increases. The biggest push, I see for a house is inflation hedge and being priced out of most of the job central locations. However I am worried with another kid planned in 2 years- combined daycare expenses plus commute will stretch finances and time quite a bit.
One thought is we buy but keep the house rented until wife job/commute/kid day care situation clears up and finally move in an year/two.
Last edited by ray.james on Sun Apr 14, 2019 1:28 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Watty
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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area for our circumstances

Post by Watty » Fri Mar 24, 2017 5:28 pm

ray.james wrote:40 minute commute. Not bad though for bay area. This is in traffic.(25 mins weekend)
Is that one way?

The problem is that when people say "40 minute commute" they really mean that is it 40 minutes on a good day, will about an hour a couple of times a week, and closer to two hours every month or so and the commute from hell once or twice a year. It may also be worse in ten years as traffic gets worse.

If you work in a job where you have to be there at a specific time in the morning you may need to leave for work very early to get there at that time if there is bad traffic that day.
ray.james wrote:Things against:
Add;

The home price could drop 20% or more.

Earthquake risk. When I lived in the Bay Area by best guess was that if I bought a house there it might have significant earthquake damage maybe one in 200 years. (Do your own research and come up with your own numbers.) That does not sound too bad but if that is right that means that if you live there for 20 years then there is a 10% chance that you will have major earthquake damage while you live in it. There is a reason that earthquake insurance is so expensive there.

skteam
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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by skteam » Fri Mar 24, 2017 5:55 pm

Personally, I'd buy if you think you will be in the house long-term. Home prices could rise, they could fall. None of this will matter too much unless you have to sell and move at the wrong time. There are many people who will argue that the bay area market is at its "peak" or in a "bubble." Many of those people have been saying that for many years, and apparently define "peak" differently than I do. Others will tell you that you would be crazy to buy here because you could get a 10,000 square foot home in the suburbs of Cleveland for the same price. They are entitled to their opinion, but lifestyle matters.

For most (but not all) people, there are significant intangible upsides to owning your own home. Hard to put a number of those but they are real.

I would not buy until you are ready to move in. Doing so is just speculating on where home values will go, and nobody knows that any better than they know the next week's stock prices.

centrifuge41
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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by centrifuge41 » Fri Mar 24, 2017 6:02 pm

If you can secure a 850k home in a relatively good location for 850k and keep maxing 401k/IRAs, that doesn't sound bad at all. But I thought multiple offer no contingency was common? Inventory flies off the shelf?

I know some coworkers who moved out there. To get the size that they wanted, they had to go live in East Bay (Dublin, Livermore, Pleasanton). Super long BART ride into the City. 40 minutes is not bad at all, if that is a (slightly worse than) typical day. I understand. I'm in NoVA, and I have a 30 minute morning drive and a 50 minute afternoon drive, and I'm "just" 9 miles from the office.

Frisco Kid
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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by Frisco Kid » Fri Mar 24, 2017 6:05 pm

May I ask what city you work in and where are you looking to buy?

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Raybo
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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by Raybo » Fri Mar 24, 2017 6:11 pm

centrifuge41 wrote:If you can secure a 850k home in a relatively good location for 850k and keep maxing 401k/IRAs, that doesn't sound bad at all. But I thought multiple offer no contingency was common? Inventory flies off the shelf?
I live in San Francisco and can say that the housing market seems to have cooled here a bit. That could be because prices are simply too high, not so many high-flying tech companies are going public, or some other reason. But, it seems that homes around where I live are on the market longer then in the "no contingency" days.

The house across the street from me just sold after being on the market for 8 months. Granted, it is being sold by a company that specializes in buying, remodeling, and flipping houses who were clearly waiting for their price. But, it finally sold for (in my opinion) way more than it is worth.

YMMV.
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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by skteam » Fri Mar 24, 2017 6:29 pm

Raybo wrote:
I live in San Francisco and can say that the housing market seems to have cooled here a bit. That could be because prices are simply too high, not so many high-flying tech companies are going public, or some other reason. But, it seems that homes around where I live are on the market longer then in the "no contingency" days.

YMMV.
I think the condo market has softened quite a bit in SF due to new construction. I'm seeing the same thing that you are for SFH--sales are not happening at the incredible pace as they were before, but the prices for SFH are remained amazingly high. SFH prices still seem to be going up, but certainly for 10-15%/year anymore. That had to happen.

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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area for our circumstances

Post by ray.james » Fri Mar 24, 2017 6:30 pm

Watty wrote:
ray.james wrote:40 minute commute. Not bad though for bay area. This is in traffic.(25 mins weekend)
Is that one way?
The home price could drop 20% or more.
Earthquake risk
Yes it is one way. I am basing it on peak 4-6 pm time but I have a lot of flexibility when to start/leave work. So in that it is 40 min upper bound rather than other way. I do agree though, Many friends bought house thinking the same. As traffic/people increase, it will get worse.

Agree on Earthquake and price risk. Unless we move out of area, we cannot escape it. I do not see that happening for another 7 years.
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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by ray.james » Fri Mar 24, 2017 6:32 pm

skteam wrote: I would not buy until you are ready to move in. Doing so is just speculating on where home values will go, and nobody knows that any better than they know the next week's stock prices.
Agree, The thought is more of an inflation hedge in good school district if we choose to buy and rent. It is slightly beyond my wife's risk level and might never happen.
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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by ray.james » Fri Mar 24, 2017 6:36 pm

Frisco Kid wrote:May I ask what city you work in and where are you looking to buy?
Sure, San Mateo- almost foster city/Belmont area. Looking in North Fremont area.
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petulant
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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by petulant » Fri Mar 24, 2017 6:51 pm

ray.james wrote:
skteam wrote: I would not buy until you are ready to move in. Doing so is just speculating on where home values will go, and nobody knows that any better than they know the next week's stock prices.
Agree, The thought is more of an inflation hedge in good school district if we choose to buy and rent. It is slightly beyond my wife's risk level and might never happen.
Oftentimes loan terms are less favorable if you do not have intent to occupy the home. So if you buy now just to rent it out, you might have a worse interest rate than you would if you just waited. That said, it's also true that interest rates may go up in the next few months. We know short-term rates will go up, and that may or may not have a big effect on mortgage terms. Overall, I would join the advice that you shouldn't buy until you're ready to move in.

random_walker_77
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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by random_walker_77 » Fri Mar 24, 2017 7:14 pm

Do you have lead paint in the current apartment? How old are the houses? If it's a newer house, built after ~1980, no problem. Before 1978, lead paint is a big concern. In the bay area, the old houses might also have asbestos. With young kids around, you need to be careful about paint, paint chips, and paint dust.

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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by mmmodem » Fri Mar 24, 2017 8:00 pm

ray.james wrote:
Frisco Kid wrote:May I ask what city you work in and where are you looking to buy?
Sure, San Mateo- almost foster city/Belmont area. Looking in North Fremont area.
That's $200 monthly bridge toll. Wouldn't it make more sense to buy the difference in house on the other side of the bay? I know, I know, San Mateo is more expensive. But would it make more sense to bump up your home price $50k and buy in Sunnyvale instead for $800k - $900k like this? No toll needed.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Sunnyvale/984 ... e/41395906

I recommend continue to rent. These home prices cannot be sustained. I don't the buy the "we'll be priced out of the market if we continue to wait." That just cannot happen. People living and working in the area have to be able to afford in the live in the area. We're at the 25% tax level and I own an $800k home in Milpitas. I paid nowhere near that much for it. I paid the $400k that I could afford at the bottom of the market in 2009. If I had listened to my friends buying $800k to $1 million home in 2005, I'd be in foreclosure long ago.

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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by Goal33 » Fri Mar 24, 2017 8:08 pm

mmmodem wrote:
ray.james wrote:
Frisco Kid wrote:May I ask what city you work in and where are you looking to buy?
Sure, San Mateo- almost foster city/Belmont area. Looking in North Fremont area.
That's $200 monthly bridge toll. Wouldn't it make more sense to buy the difference in house on the other side of the bay? I know, I know, San Mateo is more expensive. But would it make more sense to bump up your home price $50k and buy in Sunnyvale instead for $800k - $900k like this? No toll needed.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Sunnyvale/984 ... e/41395906

I recommend continue to rent. These home prices cannot be sustained. I don't the buy the "we'll be priced out of the market if we continue to wait." That just cannot happen. People living and working in the area have to be able to afford in the live in the area. We're at the 25% tax level and I own an $800k home in Milpitas. I paid nowhere near that much for it. I paid the $400k that I could afford at the bottom of the market in 2009. If I had listened to my friends buying $800k to $1 million home in 2005, I'd be in foreclosure long ago.
You're basically saying you don't buy that people can't be priced out but then you're saying you would be in foreclosure if you attempted to buy a house valued at the price of your current home...
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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by aristotelian » Fri Mar 24, 2017 8:08 pm

The 5-10 minute situation sounds great. I would hate to give that up.

From a strictly financial point of view, the house might make sense if you are staying 10+ years. If there is a chance you move before that, you will be throwing away just as much on interest and repairs as you would on rent. You would think you would build up 1/3 of the mortgage in equity over 10 years, but it doesn't work that way.

What would be the difference between current rent and mortgage payment?

Is there any chance you could find jobs close to the house?

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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by KlangFool » Fri Mar 24, 2017 8:10 pm

OP,

It is the wrong time for you to buy a house. So, that overrides all financial concerns.

1) Your wife may have a new job and you do not know where it is going to be.

2) You just have a baby and you do not know how much money that you can spare for a house.

3) You will have another baby in 1 or 2 years. Your household expense will change again.

4) Your kids will not be going to school for another 2 to 4 years. So, by that time, the house may or may not be in a good school district.

In summary, it is a mistake to buy a house now due to your life circumstances. The timing is wrong. The best time for you to buy a house is 5 years from now.

KlangFool

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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by Ron Ronnerson » Fri Mar 24, 2017 8:54 pm

I'd recommend doing some things, if you haven't already:

1) Determine which schools your kids would go to (through all grade levels). There is quite a variety in North Fremont.
2) Save more so that you can cover more than three months' worth of expenses in case of an emergency. Since your wife's job may change, this is particularly important.
3) Do test-run drives to check out the commute. Traffic has gotten really bad in certain parts of Fremont in the afternoon and getting out of town can be difficult. It may or may not affect the area you are considering.
4) Have your wife's job situation figured out a bit more before making the move. If she ends up finding a great job far from Fremont and you have a kid or two at home, your house may become like a ball-and-chain.
5) Calculate how much your expenses will go up to once you are home-owners with a couple of kids. I'd do a projected budget and see if you can sustain things as you'd like them.

Overall, I agree with KlangFool. It doesn't seem like an ideal time to buy a house in your situation. There are so many changes coming soon in your life that maybe it makes sense to wait to purchase for a little bit. It gives you a little extra time to build up the reserves as well.

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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by Watty » Fri Mar 24, 2017 8:56 pm

ray.james wrote: I do not see that happening for another 7 years.
If you think that it is likely that you will move in 7 years then that is likely too short a time to buy, especially in a crazy market like the Bay Area.
ray.james wrote:So in that it is 40 min upper bound rather than other way.
Leaving early in the morning to go to work there may be some days when you do see them in the morning on weekdays. Bedtimes will be highly variable but a young kid might go to bed at eight or so and that 40 minutes could be a high percentage if the time on weekday evenings that you would be home while the kids are awake. I would not give that up lightly.

It works best of either you or your spouse can work near the kids. In addition to having to go pick up a puking kid at school I have had to head home because a kid was in the emergency room getting stitches or a cast on a broken arm. Fortunately it was not serious but it was good that my wife was nearby.

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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by randomizer » Fri Mar 24, 2017 9:04 pm

I wouldn't have the stomach to buy in the Bay Area. The prices seem high, the earthquake risk etc.
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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by rosylenm » Fri Mar 24, 2017 9:20 pm

Ron Ronnerson wrote:I'd recommend doing some things, if you haven't already:

1) Determine which schools your kids would go to (through all grade levels). There is quite a variety in North Fremont.
2) Save more so that you can cover more than three months' worth of expenses in case of an emergency. Since your wife's job may change, this is particularly important.
3) Do test-run drives to check out the commute. Traffic has gotten really bad in certain parts of Fremont in the afternoon and getting out of town can be difficult. It may or may not affect the area you are considering.
4) Have your wife's job situation figured out a bit more before making the move. If she ends up finding a great job far from Fremont and you have a kid or two at home, your house may become like a ball-and-chain.
5) Calculate how much your expenses will go up to once you are home-owners with a couple of kids. I'd do a projected budget and see if you can sustain things as you'd like them.

Overall, I agree with KlangFool. It doesn't seem like an ideal time to buy a house in your situation. There are so many changes coming soon in your life that maybe it makes sense to wait to purchase for a little bit. It gives you a little extra time to build up the reserves as well.
+10000

Traffic in and around certain areas in Fremont is unbelievable. Trying to get into or out of the Mission district or Niles Canyon or (fill in the blank) has gotten really, really, really bad this last year especially and is only going to get worse with all of the new developments popping up. My morning commute to Oakland is about 30 minutes, but my commute home is never less than 45 minutes AND I have to drive to the other end of my neighborhood to get home because traffic through Niles Canyon backs up Mission Boulevard (I either have to sit through numerous traffic light cycles to get to the closest entrance to my neighborhood or drive past that one and cut through the neighborhood farther down on Mission. And the neighborhood is being used as a cut through (lots of traffic during evening commute trying to get to the canyon. Had I known this when I moved here six years ago, I would have kept my cheap (but super conveniently located) apartment on the border of Piedmont and Temescal in Oakland where I could bike anywhere I needed to go.

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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area for our circumstances

Post by lazydavid » Fri Mar 24, 2017 9:39 pm

Watty wrote:The problem is that when people say "40 minute commute" they really mean that is it 40 minutes on a good day, will about an hour a couple of times a week, and closer to two hours every month or so and the commute from hell once or twice a year.
Is this Bay-area specific? I've been commuting to the same location (suburb of Chicago) for 9 years (exactly, today), and the most common travel times are 35 minutes in, 50 minutes home. A bad day might be 50 minutes in or 70 minutes home. Worst ever were 70 minutes in, 2.5 hours home (not on the same day), but each of those only happened one time (accident delay and blizzard, respectively). That's excluding the one trip that was 90 minutes in due to being rear-ended and having to wait for the police. :)

Commute from hell can happen anywhere, but should not be a once or twice a year thing. In a previous job, I lived nominally 11 minutes from the office (5th percentile 8 minutes, 95th percentile 13). One day they let us go early (1:30-ish) due to a snowstorm that was just starting, and it took me 3.5 hours to get home. Worked a half day and got home at the normal time. :(

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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by FoolStreet » Fri Mar 24, 2017 10:17 pm

ray.james wrote:Hello bogleheads,
We see numerous threads on this topic and would welcome advice from folks who have been down the path.

Our stats in Brief:
Bay area double income couple. Newborn at home.(going to day care in 3 months)
Have 20% downpayment for 750-850k range house. (plus 3 months EFund only after that.)
Current home to office - 5-10 mins.
PITI + 0.5% upkeep will be 30%. Current rent is 15% of income.
Tax rate:28+9.3% which brings PITI+ upkeep to ~24%
We max all retirement accounts and will continue.

Things for:
Imputed rent
Inflation hedge
Out of crappy apartment(prob not with old houses.)

Things against:
40 minute commute. Not bad though for bay area. This is in traffic.(25 mins weekend)
Daycare + commute expenses will start to show on budget soon.
Wife works from home. But might need to change job which will add another commute.

We like the new area and houses we are seeing. We are priced out of our current area which is on peninsula. Our rent is below market by almost 15%. I think this will continue even thought we expect mild increases. The biggest push, I see for a house is inflation hedge and being priced out of most of the job central locations. However I am worried with another kid planned in 2 years- combined daycare expenses plus commute will stretch finances and time quite a bit.
One thought is we buy but keep the house rented until wife job/commute/kid day care situation clears up and finally move in an year/two.
I might suggest staying on the peninsula and renting while job hopping. DINKs here have the oppty to push tax rate higher than 28%. If you move too far, you have the risk of cruising your careers. Also, being 5-10 min from home can be a big plus as you deal with kids. A 15% rent discount isn't bad.

Hard choices, no easy answer. Take your time?

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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by CurlyDave » Sat Mar 25, 2017 3:26 am

I spent most of my career in the Bay Area 1977-2008. One problem with saying a commute is 40 minutes is that traffic tracks the economy very well. When times were bad, it might take 20 minutes for a trip, when the economy was booming it would take more than an hour. I don't think things have changed. Traffic was a better economic indicator than the unemployment rate.

But, and this is a big deal, jobs are everywhere in the Bay Area in good times. You don't have to move your house to get a better commute -- change jobs.

We had rentals in Fremont, so I have owned more homes there than the average bear. I waited out the cycles -- sort of like that evil market timing. I did not look in newer subdivisions. Look for special situations in older neighborhoods. Values are better.

What is a "special situation"? Look for a house in less than perfect condition with a highly motivated seller. We found one where health forced the owner to move in with her kids up near Vallejo. House had suffered years of deferred maintenance and none of her kids lived close enough to want to come down and put the time or effort into fixing it up. So, it looked like a dump. The owner wanted to build an addition onto her daughter's house to live in so she was highly motivated to sell, but it had been on the market for quite a while. We offered a price maybe 25% lower than asking, but it was the only offer she has seen, so we got it. Two weekends of day laborers and dumpsters and it looked a lot more presentable. 4 weekends and it was on the rental market. Another one the seller had moved to Sacramento, and the house desperately needed a roof that he did not want to afford. Again an offer well below asking, but where we were willing to assume the risk of putting on a new roof was successful.

Even in the Bay Area there are bargain fixer-uppers to be found.

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Watty
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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area for our circumstances

Post by Watty » Sat Mar 25, 2017 7:24 am

lazydavid wrote:
Watty wrote:The problem is that when people say "40 minute commute" they really mean that is it 40 minutes on a good day, will about an hour a couple of times a week, and closer to two hours every month or so and the commute from hell once or twice a year.
Is this Bay-area specific? I've been commuting to the same location (suburb of Chicago) for 9 years (exactly, today), and the most common travel times are 35 minutes in, 50 minutes home. A bad day might be 50 minutes in or 70 minutes home. Worst ever were 70 minutes in, 2.5 hours home (not on the same day), but each of those only happened one time (accident delay and blizzard, respectively). That's excluding the one trip that was 90 minutes in due to being rear-ended and having to wait for the police. :)

Commute from hell can happen anywhere, but should not be a once or twice a year thing. In a previous job, I lived nominally 11 minutes from the office (5th percentile 8 minutes, 95th percentile 13). One day they let us go early (1:30-ish) due to a snowstorm that was just starting, and it took me 3.5 hours to get home. Worked a half day and got home at the normal time. :(
With only slight exaggeration it was pretty much like that here in Atlanta before I retired. Part of the differences in time for me would be due to driving it at a slightly different times. I tried to not drive at the peak rush hour but when I needed to drive at a different time that could cause me to drive at the peak rush hour and that would easily increase by commute time by 50% even if there was not an accident or construction that day. Changing the time I started by even 20 minutes would make a significant difference.

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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by investor_coffee » Sat Mar 25, 2017 9:01 am

Have you looked into townhomes? We live in the Bay Area (south bay) and we live in a condo. We are lucky our neighbors are very quiet. I would probably do a townhome instead next time though, just so you don't have the upstairs neighbor risk. We bought an out-of-state single family home rental so we would have some single family exposure.

We are very happy that we don't have to pay rent to a landlord (just to the bank), and the quality of living is definitely higher than just a regular apartment. For me, it makes retirement planning a lot easier knowing our housing costs are largely fixed. Also you can eventually plan to move to a LCOL area and purchase a very nice house if that's what you want to do.

You may even be able to buy a townhome in San Jose for less than 800k. In the outskirts probably around 600k.

In general I think it's hard to time the market in the Bay Area. I think the area exhibits strength similar to the stock market which makes it difficult to time.

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boomer
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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by boomer » Sat Mar 25, 2017 10:59 am

I think you should keep renting. You have a newborn and your wife isn't working again yet. You should see how that is working out before you commit to a house. Especially since she may be changing jobs. And because the down payment will seriously impact your emergency fund.
Unfortunately it is really hard to see how much a commute impacts your quality of life til you are doing it. But if you have a 10 minute one now, that's another hour sucked out of your day, if the new one is 40. That's an hour that could be spent with family, exercising, making dinner, etc. I personally think it will be a tough transition and maybe difficult to handle for seven years, for both you and your wife.

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HomerJ
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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by HomerJ » Sat Mar 25, 2017 11:06 am

skteam wrote:Others will tell you that you would be crazy to buy here because you could get a 10,000 square foot home in the suburbs of Cleveland for the same price.
Half the price. :)

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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by tipee » Sat Mar 25, 2017 1:14 pm

I think home prices in the bay are near an all time high (it's definitely above the pre-crash of 2008) so I would probably wait. If the schools where you live are good then you can take your time. If they aren't good then you have about 5 years.

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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by Derby » Sat Mar 25, 2017 4:29 pm

Have you crunched your numbers through the NYT Rent vs. Buy Calculator? https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/201 ... lator.html

In your situation, I would stay renting. It sounds like there are a lot of changes/uncertainty in your near future, and you don't want to be stuck with the 10% round trip transaction costs if you have to sell.

Plus, a 20 min/day commute vs. a 90-120 min/day commute over the bridge? No way I would do that. Your family needs you more than they need a house.
Carpe Diem.

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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by Ron Ronnerson » Sun Mar 26, 2017 10:14 am

tipee wrote:I think home prices in the bay are near an all time high (it's definitely above the pre-crash of 2008) so I would probably wait. If the schools where you live are good then you can take your time. If they aren't good then you have about 5 years.
I agree that OP should probably wait to buy a house. However, I think it's because of their personal circumstances, not because home prices are near an all time high in the Bay Area. You could easily keep it a true statement by substituting "stock" for "home" in your sentence yet most people on this forum would advise you to not let those all-time high stock prices sway you from continuing to buy. The same is true for Bay Area home prices. There may or may not be a bubble. If there is a bubble, we don't know when it will begin to pop. It is possible that even when it does pop, prices will never be as low as they are right now. A home should be bought when/if it makes sense to do so.
lazydavid wrote:
Watty wrote:The problem is that when people say "40 minute commute" they really mean that is it 40 minutes on a good day, will about an hour a couple of times a week, and closer to two hours every month or so and the commute from hell once or twice a year.
Is this Bay-area specific? I've been commuting to the same location (suburb of Chicago) for 9 years (exactly, today), and the most common travel times are 35 minutes in, 50 minutes home. A bad day might be 50 minutes in or 70 minutes home. Worst ever were 70 minutes in, 2.5 hours home (not on the same day), but each of those only happened one time (accident delay and blizzard, respectively). That's excluding the one trip that was 90 minutes in due to being rear-ended and having to wait for the police. :)

Commute from hell can happen anywhere, but should not be a once or twice a year thing. In a previous job, I lived nominally 11 minutes from the office (5th percentile 8 minutes, 95th percentile 13). One day they let us go early (1:30-ish) due to a snowstorm that was just starting, and it took me 3.5 hours to get home. Worked a half day and got home at the normal time. :(
Fremont is not in the same realm of normal in terms of commutes. Some parts of the city are affected in ways that are unimaginable. Other parts are fine. As of a couple of years ago, apps started advising people working in Silicon Valley and living in the East Bay to cut through Fremont. Traffic in certain parts of town became very bad. Then, as of December 2016, metering lights were turned on at the on-ramps. It has led to utter gridlock within neighborhoods. People in certain areas can no longer leave their driveways in the late afternoons. What used to be a 3 minute drive to the freeway on-ramp located a mile away in 2015 can take an hour or so in 2017. Fremont is trying to adjust by restricting turns through residential neighborhoods between certain hours because so many people are using its streets as a sort of an extended on-ramp. It hasn't made much of a difference and the traffic is still horrible. I'm talking about traffic on what used to recently be quiet neighborhoods, not on a highway. While traffic can be really bad in certain parts of the country, Fremont is a different beast at the moment. I'd hate to have a home in an area that is affected.

To the comment that a "commute from hell can happen anywhere, but should not be a once or twice a year thing" - for parts of Fremont, it is now a daily thing.

In addition to Rosylenm's account of what's become of Fremont a few posts before this one, here's an article: https://www.idropnews.com/news/google-m ... emy/33498/

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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by tipee » Sun Mar 26, 2017 10:40 am

Ron Ronnerson wrote:
tipee wrote:I think home prices in the bay are near an all time high (it's definitely above the pre-crash of 2008) so I would probably wait. If the schools where you live are good then you can take your time. If they aren't good then you have about 5 years.
I agree that OP should probably wait to buy a house. However, I think it's because of their personal circumstances, not because home prices are near an all time high in the Bay Area. You could easily keep it a true statement by substituting "stock" for "home" in your sentence yet most people on this forum would advise you to not let those all-time high stock prices sway you from continuing to buy. The same is true for Bay Area home prices. There may or may not be a bubble. If there is a bubble, we don't know when it will begin to pop. It is possible that even when it does pop, prices will never be as low as they are right now. A home should be bought when/if it makes sense to do so.
In theory you can replace "home" with "stock", but in reality it's not the same because you're (typically) putting much more into a home, and it's not a liquid investment where you can just easily jump out.

But yes, I will agree that it greatly depends on each individual (or family's) circumstance. If for example is commute is the same or more from the rental as compared to a home then the benefits of buying a home goes up.

And as a side, I can tell you from personal experience that saving on commute time is huge. A few years ago I moved from 1 city to another (both in the bay area) which doubled my commute time from 30-40 mins (one way) to 60-80 mins. I thought I could handle it since we were moving into a really nice house in a great neighborhood with great schools. I can just sing loudly in the car or listen to endless podcasts. Well it turns out I hated the commute and after a few months I basically started working from home and only going in once or twice a month. I was lucky in that my job allows me to do that, but not everyone is. With young kids (or baby on the way) I would seriously consider the flexibility of short commute over things like higher salary or nicer home.

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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area for our circumstances

Post by letsgobobby » Sun Mar 26, 2017 10:42 am

ray.james wrote:
Watty wrote:
ray.james wrote:40 minute commute. Not bad though for bay area. This is in traffic.(25 mins weekend)
Is that one way?
The home price could drop 20% or more.
Earthquake risk
Yes it is one way. I am basing it on peak 4-6 pm time but I have a lot of flexibility when to start/leave work. So in that it is 40 min upper bound rather than other way. I do agree though, Many friends bought house thinking the same. As traffic/people increase, it will get worse.

Agree on Earthquake and price risk. Unless we move out of area, we cannot escape it. I do not see that happening for another 7 years.
A 40 minute commute with traffic is painful enough. When you start having kids And have to coordinate daycare drop offs, school, other activities, etc., I think this will become rather unpleasant.

I have a 40 minute commute with no traffic and every minute in the car is a minute less I am with my family. It's not bad at all because of no traffic, highway speeds the whole way, but I still notice the time suck.

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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by ray.james » Sun Mar 26, 2017 11:54 pm

Thanks for the great discussion! Great feedback everyone.
I agree with other that if my wife were to commute long distance, this transition is not acceptable for our family too. It is an unknown at this point.

Thanks for the feedback on time commitment, time constraints and other variables on earthquake. We intend to stay in the area, but 7 years is minimum we are not even considering moving. A lot to think about!
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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by ray.james » Mon Mar 27, 2017 1:20 am

Ron Ronnerson wrote: Fremont is not in the same realm of normal in terms of commutes. Some parts of the city are affected in ways that are unimaginable. Other parts are fine. As of a couple of years ago, apps started advising people working in Silicon Valley and living in the East Bay to cut through Fremont. Traffic in certain parts of town became very bad. Then, as of December 2016, metering lights were turned on at the on-ramps. It has led to utter gridlock within neighborhoods. People in certain areas can no longer leave their driveways in the late afternoons. What used to be a 3 minute drive to the freeway on-ramp located a mile away in 2015 can take an hour or so in 2017. Fremont is trying to adjust by restricting turns through residential neighborhoods between certain hours because so many people are using its streets as a sort of an extended on-ramp. It hasn't made much of a difference and the traffic is still horrible. I'm talking about traffic on what used to recently be quiet neighborhoods, not on a highway. While traffic can be really bad in certain parts of the country, Fremont is a different beast at the moment. I'd hate to have a home in an area that is affected.

To the comment that a "commute from hell can happen anywhere, but should not be a once or twice a year thing" - for parts of Fremont, it is now a daily thing.

In addition to Rosylenm's account of what's become of Fremont a few posts before this one, here's an article: https://www.idropnews.com/news/google-m ... emy/33498/
Thanks Ron. I am aware of mission and other alternate roads have become hell recently. While I am considering a little farther, it might be worth it to check it out again. Will do it once we decide but right now after some discussions today, we are leaning to wait another year and reconsider.
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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by SGM » Mon Mar 27, 2017 3:52 am

We bought a charming home just north of the Golden Gate in the 80s. Prices had been stable for 5 years. The couple selling to us were planning to save their money by renting for 5 years so they could buy a bigger house. They sold to us for the exact same price they paid 5 years earlier. The problem for them was that housing values doubled within 2 years of our purchase and they were priced out of the market for a while. We sold the house for a little less than double within 4 years to move back east.

I don't know anything about the current Bay area market but being priced out of the market is a consideration. We found prices to be influenced a lot by the local weather/fog which seemed to change within a few blocks. We found open houses to be entertaining. I recall a livable converted chicken coop, a child's egg bed built out of a wall, a bathroom throne, houses hanging off the side of hill tops, extensions connected by an enclose bridge over a seasonal stream, etc..

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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by ray.james » Sun Apr 14, 2019 1:27 am

The clock turned 2 years. A few things changed on our end and we are now again looking to buy.

Home is for 1.25 to 1.35 millon range. Income increased quite a bit. When I made the original post, we wanted to buy in east bay but as time went by, we do not want to commute that much. Meantime our incomes went up. We saved well and finally in the reach to buy a town home in this range. We have enough reserves and down payment.

For:
Our careers stabilized. Both are progressing well with substantial raises last 2 years, RSU will start stacking soon.
Our kid is a busy toddler and we will be expanding the family next year. space will be needed.
10 min commute(got an offer for 30% more income, - different company same commute.)
wife has shuttle from this city we are renting- 30-35 min shuttle to her work.

Against:
4x income. old houses - 70's and thereby maintenance.
We can wait 2 more years. Out 2 bedroom rental continues to be 15% below market.
All of our friends moved to south/east bay.

We went to an open house this weekend. We loved the layout. Kid's park, soccer field is 150m, elem school is 600 m, wife shuttle is 0.5mile, I can bike to my work when not shuttling kid. I do not think one can ask for better commute situation/amenities in bay area.

Questions:
What do you think of income to price ratio.
we will max tax advantaged accounts. But there will be few years when future child will be in daycare(2 kids) with zero savings beyond 401k. Any thoughts?
Last edited by ray.james on Mon Apr 15, 2019 10:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by capitalG » Sun Apr 14, 2019 4:11 am

We were in your position about 1.5 years ago with a similar family situation, income/house price ratio, and commute/neighborhood benefits as you - we pulled the trigger and are happy with that decision. Our house price has dropped a bit since we purchased but we don’t care much - we were happy with the house and the lifestyle improvements, it has expansion potential, and hope to stay here through our kids elementary schools. Regarding future savings, we had the same issue initially - for the first 1.5 years we had to cut back to investing to only our 401ks and IRAs but IMO just a short term blip on our savings plan. The biggest worry that I had/still have is the whole earthquake topic, but ultimately I figure you need to come to terms with this risk in general if you plan on staying in the BA long term.

Caveat is that I recently had a positive job opportunity with my company out of country and took it - we had the opportunity to sell the house but liked it so much that we are now renting it out to another nice family. FWIW, we found a renter in less than a week despite an above market rent price making me think there is still strong housing demand for SFH in desirable areas.

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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by ray.james » Sun Apr 14, 2019 7:59 pm

capitalG wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 4:11 am
We were in your position about 1.5 years ago with a similar family situation, income/house price ratio, and commute/neighborhood benefits as you - we pulled the trigger and are happy with that decision. Our house price has dropped a bit since we purchased but we don’t care much - we were happy with the house and the lifestyle improvements, it has expansion potential, and hope to stay here through our kids elementary schools. Regarding future savings, we had the same issue initially - for the first 1.5 years we had to cut back to investing to only our 401ks and IRAs but IMO just a short term blip on our savings plan. The biggest worry that I had/still have is the whole earthquake topic, but ultimately I figure you need to come to terms with this risk in general if you plan on staying in the BA long term.

Caveat is that I recently had a positive job opportunity with my company out of country and took it - we had the opportunity to sell the house but liked it so much that we are now renting it out to another nice family. FWIW, we found a renter in less than a week despite an above market rent price making me think there is still strong housing demand for SFH in desirable areas.

CapG
Thanks CapitalG fr your experience. Once thing that does add to worry is potential to rent. I presume in this scenario rent will not cover the mortgage payment by 1K - 2K per month. Did/does this worry you?
I agree there is a strong housing demand. Part reason being the number of houses are just enough to get outbid enough. I do not see it changing soon. most of the 25 -30 year olds are starting family and will continue to need more.
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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by random_walker_77 » Sun Apr 14, 2019 10:09 pm

ray.james wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 1:27 am
The clock turned 2 years. A few things changed on our end and we are now again looking to buy.

Home is for 1.25 to 1.35 millon range. Income 300k base + 30K RSU. When I made the original post, we wanted to buy in east bay but as time went by, we do not want to commute that much. Meantime our incomes went up. We saved well and finally in the reach to buy a town home in this range. We have enough reserves and down payment.

For:
Our careers stabilized. Both are progressing well with substantial raises last 2 years, RSU will start stacking soon.
Our kid is a busy toddler and we will be expanding the family next year. space will be needed.
10 min commute(got an offer for 30% more income, - different company same commute.)
wife has shuttle from this city we are renting- 30-35 min shuttle to her work.

Against:
4x income. old houses - 70's and thereby maintenance.
We can wait 2 more years. Out 2 bedroom rental continues to be 15% below market.
All of our friends moved to south/east bay.

We went to an open house this weekend. We loved the layout. Kid's park, soccer field is 150m, elem school is 600 m, wife shuttle is 0.5mile, I can bike to my work when not shuttling kid. I do not think one can ask for better commute situation/amenities in bay area.

Questions:
What do you think of income to price ratio.
we will max tax advantaged accounts. But there will be few years when future child will be in daycare(2 kids) with zero savings beyond 401k. Any thoughts?
4x ratio is quite do-able and normal for the bay area. You *could* do it. But I don't know if you really want to.

Given your income growth, and savings rate, perhaps it makes sense to continue renting and/or save towards a SFH (single family home)?
Among your list, I don't see school quality mentioned -- is it acceptable for the long term (7+ years)? You're not quite there yet, but for those with older kids, this tends to be a strong factor.

How much are HOA fees?

Keep in mind that 70s homes imply lead paint. Make sure things are safe for your toddler and upcoming baby. The other big one is asbestos.

An alternative to consider is continuing to rent, and perhaps upgrading the rental to a SFH. It seems to be generally cheaper to rent a nice house than to buy it. In your city, how does the rent compare against the sum of {mortgage interest, prop tax, HOA fees, maintenance}?

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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by CoastalWinds » Sun Apr 14, 2019 10:22 pm

With your rent at 15% of income, are you really worried about needing to hedge against inflation? I know it’s no fun seeing your rent go up each year, but remember...

Your incomes go up too
Property tax and home maintenance costs go up too

Someone earlier said there are intangibles of owning your own home. While that’s true, there are also significant intangibles of renting. It all depends on your lifestyle. Good luck with your decision.

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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by CoastalWinds » Sun Apr 14, 2019 10:28 pm

SGM wrote:
Mon Mar 27, 2017 3:52 am
I don't know anything about the current Bay area market but being priced out of the market is a consideration
Do you work in the real estate industry? Sounds like something an aggressive agent would say. “Buy now or be priced out forever!”

I think it’s irresponsible to make this tired comment in this situation. I realize it’s not intentional on your part, but it is a bit of fear-mongering and does not lend itself to good decision-making.

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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by ryman554 » Mon Apr 15, 2019 2:41 pm

CoastalWinds wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 10:28 pm
SGM wrote:
Mon Mar 27, 2017 3:52 am
I don't know anything about the current Bay area market but being priced out of the market is a consideration
Do you work in the real estate industry? Sounds like something an aggressive agent would say. “Buy now or be priced out forever!”

I think it’s irresponsible to make this tired comment in this situation. I realize it’s not intentional on your part, but it is a bit of fear-mongering and does not lend itself to good decision-making.
I don't think it's irresponsible at all, it's a real problem.

Over the pat 5-6 years, a lot of folks have been priced out with prices nearly doubling over that time. I certainly couldn't afford my house today, and almost everybody I talk to who owns a home shares that sentiment. Nobody can afford to move, either, which is compounding the problem by keeping inventory low and allowing a few (very rich) people price the market.

Will this be true going forward? I suspect likely not in the near term, so the major damage has been done, so to speak, and there looks to be some breathing room up ahead.

It is very hard to save up for a downpayment as rising rents eat away at your nest egg. The OP has done an admirable job in getting their ducks in a row. So in this sense, my comments above notwithstanding, see that the OP probably has time to wait a bit and keep building wealth to find the right neighborhood and situation.

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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by majiaknight » Mon Apr 15, 2019 4:28 pm

ray.james wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 1:27 am
we will max tax advantaged accounts. But there will be few years when future child will be in daycare(2 kids) with zero savings beyond 401k. Any thoughts?
Since you mentioned day care cost, what about K-12 edu for both kids? I'd guess ~$1.3M budget won't buy you a townhouse in decent school district in south bay. Could you afford x2 private school tuition (e.g. ~$1.8K/m w/ annual increase for one preschooler in Challenger/Stratford, not including after-school/weekend programs)? You'd better think about long term for the kids edu in planning house purchase in the Bay area especially you plan to have two. Even you could find something easy commute (work-home) for now, it could change dramatically if you have to send the kids to private schools not close to where you live.

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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by VillageofWolves » Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:26 pm

ryman554 wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 2:41 pm
CoastalWinds wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 10:28 pm
SGM wrote:
Mon Mar 27, 2017 3:52 am
I don't know anything about the current Bay area market but being priced out of the market is a consideration
Do you work in the real estate industry? Sounds like something an aggressive agent would say. “Buy now or be priced out forever!”

I think it’s irresponsible to make this tired comment in this situation. I realize it’s not intentional on your part, but it is a bit of fear-mongering and does not lend itself to good decision-making.
I don't think it's irresponsible at all, it's a real problem.

Over the pat 5-6 years, a lot of folks have been priced out with prices nearly doubling over that time. I certainly couldn't afford my house today, and almost everybody I talk to who owns a home shares that sentiment. Nobody can afford to move, either, which is compounding the problem by keeping inventory low and allowing a few (very rich) people price the market.

Will this be true going forward? I suspect likely not in the near term, so the major damage has been done, so to speak, and there looks to be some breathing room up ahead.

It is very hard to save up for a downpayment as rising rents eat away at your nest egg. The OP has done an admirable job in getting their ducks in a row. So in this sense, my comments above notwithstanding, see that the OP probably has time to wait a bit and keep building wealth to find the right neighborhood and situation.
Even if the market crashed again no way will we see SFHs in the Greater Bay Area drop to 200k-400k. We saved and bought our SFH in the South Bay and wouldn't go back to townhome living. If it were me I would save up a little more or stretch myself a little farther to get a SFH. We just listed our old townhome at 929k and have no regrets.

SFH 2k sq/ft, 7k sq/ft lot, no hoa, 40 min commute, views of the mountains
vs
Townhome 1280 sq/ft, tandem garage, $300 HOA, schools all rated under 3, walkability a 9 on paper but feels like a 2, 5 minute commute

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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by ray.james » Mon Apr 15, 2019 10:13 pm

random_walker_77 wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 10:09 pm

4x ratio is quite do-able and normal for the bay area. You *could* do it. But I don't know if you really want to.

Given your income growth, and savings rate, perhaps it makes sense to continue renting and/or save towards a SFH (single family home)?
Among your list, I don't see school quality mentioned -- is it acceptable for the long term (7+ years)? You're not quite there yet, but for those with older kids, this tends to be a strong factor.

How much are HOA fees?

Keep in mind that 70s homes imply lead paint. Make sure things are safe for your toddler and upcoming baby. The other big one is asbestos.

An alternative to consider is continuing to rent, and perhaps upgrading the rental to a SFH. It seems to be generally cheaper to rent a nice house than to buy it. In your city, how does the rent compare against the sum of {mortgage interest, prop tax, HOA fees, maintenance}?
Schools are quite good in the are atleast at elementary/middle level. HOA of 200-500 is standard for all complexes with median at 400. Our of our goal but not a hard rule is to make sure if one loses job, we will be able to live on one income. The payment-PITI in that scenario will get to 60% but rest of our expenses are with in 40%(all in post-tax.). A SFH is 1.6m-1.75m. We will need 35% down to be able to crack similar payment number. We thought about it, but it has been analysis paralysis.
Last edited by ray.james on Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by ray.james » Mon Apr 15, 2019 10:19 pm

majiaknight wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 4:28 pm
ray.james wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 1:27 am
we will max tax advantaged accounts. But there will be few years when future child will be in daycare(2 kids) with zero savings beyond 401k. Any thoughts?
Since you mentioned day care cost, what about K-12 edu for both kids? I'd guess ~$1.3M budget won't buy you a townhouse in decent school district in south bay. Could you afford x2 private school tuition (e.g. ~$1.8K/m w/ annual increase for one preschooler in Challenger/Stratford, not including after-school/weekend programs)? You'd better think about long term for the kids edu in planning house purchase in the Bay area especially you plan to have two. Even you could find something easy commute (work-home) for now, it could change dramatically if you have to send the kids to private schools not close to where you live.
We are looking in peninsula. In my view 7/7+ is a good school and the rest strongly depends on the kid and parents.
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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by capitalG » Tue Apr 16, 2019 3:22 am

Fair point - given our purchase price, the rent we are collecting is just shy of our mortgage (excluding property tax + insurance). On the flip side, the limitations on deducting mortgage interest and property tax went away once it was flipped to a rental (now a business expense), so that helps the numbers a bit. To be fair, our goal is just keeping our house while we are out of country and renting is a way to defray the costs so we are ok being a bit in the negative...
ray.james wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 7:59 pm

Thanks CapitalG fr your experience. Once thing that does add to worry is potential to rent. I presume in this scenario rent will not cover the mortgage payment by 1K - 2K per month. Did/does this worry you?
I agree there is a strong housing demand. Part reason being the number of houses are just enough to get outbid enough. I do not see it changing soon. most of the 25 -30 year olds are starting family and will continue to need more.

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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by Watty » Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:01 am

ray.james wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 1:27 am
....and we will be expanding the family next year.
That could require expensive fertility treatments or adoption expenses.

If the new kid has even moderate and temporary health issues that might make daycare difficult or impossible. It would be good to look at your numbers with just one income just in case.

It sounds like you have a few years until your toddler starts school so there could be a lot of advantages to waiting until you have a healthy second baby and your situation is more stable.
capitalG wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 4:11 am
4x income......
What do you think of income to price ratio.
You are asking the wrong question. The big question is how big a mortage you would need and how tight your budget would be. The value of the home relative to your net worth is also important.

If you could pay cash then it would be more of a lifestyle choice than a financial decision. Buying it with huge mortage might require all your plans to work out perfectly and that rarely happens.

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Re: Buy a house or wait in bay area

Post by SGM » Wed Apr 17, 2019 3:52 am

CoastalWinds wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 10:28 pm
SGM wrote:
Mon Mar 27, 2017 3:52 am
I don't know anything about the current Bay area market but being priced out of the market is a consideration
Do you work in the real estate industry? Sounds like something an aggressive agent would say. “Buy now or be priced out forever!”

I think it’s irresponsible to make this tired comment in this situation. I realize it’s not intentional on your part, but it is a bit of fear-mongering and does not lend itself to good decision-making.
No I am not in the real estate industry although we have owned multiple properties and homes in several states at one time or another. We do own some farm rental property but that has never been something we have spent much time or effort on until this year when we inherited a small apartment building that has some essentially charity cases.

We bought a house many years ago in the SF Bay area from a couple who then rented an apartment so that they could save to buy a bigger house. Our house doubled in value quickly and we sold it after about 3 years. We were lucky and the other couple was very unlucky and were priced out of the market for longer than they expected. They lost money when they sold the house for less than $200k and could have bought it back within about 2 years for $400k. The bigger houses that were going for $400k when we bought the house were selling for $800k 2 years later. Our old house is likely selling for over a million now or more although the neighborhood is not as attractive as it was when we lived there.

I have always owned a home in up and down markets just as I have owned stocks in up and down markets. I don't believe I am fear-mongering, but you are entitled to your opinion. You seem to be reacting emotionally to a simple statement. I don't stay out of the stock market just because valuations have increased. Am I fear-mongering to write that you might miss great run ups in the stock market while you are waiting for the "best time" to buy stocks? ? Is it a tired statement to say "stay the course"? If so I guess I am guilty of using "tired statements".


I understand your frustration or dislike of aggressive real estate agents.
I would be just as skeptical of advice from a real estate agent as I would from an aggressive financial advisor.
However, I have found some real estate agents to be helpful in selling houses especially when we were living some distance from the house. We moved out of the Bay area so we were dependent on a real estate agent who was able to sell the house for us while we were 3000 miles away. When a relative became incapacitated we had an excellent agent who facilitated the sale and got a satisfactory price for the house. It was all handled remotely as we were 400 miles away from the relative's house.

We recommended the same agent that sold our relative's house to a childhood friend who had to put his MIL in a nursing home this month. Happily, the agent produced again for our friend and his MIL. :D

Good luck to you in your real estate and stock purchases.

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