madsinger monthly report (March 2019)

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madsinger
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madsinger monthly report (March 2019)

Post by madsinger » Sun Apr 14, 2019 1:00 pm

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their March 2019 returns, 2019 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2009, 2014, and 2016 (20 years 3 months, 10 years 3 months, 5 years 3 months, 3 years 3 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFIAX, VVIAX, VSMAX, VSIAX, VGSLX, 25 VTIAX, 5 VINEX, 20 VTABX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFIAX, 25% VVIAX, 5% VSMAX, 15% VSIAX, 10% VGSLX, 3% IAU, 5% each VEUSX, VPADX, VEMAX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 50/6/11/33 stock/REIT/Gold/bond. The madsingerPP portfolio is the "permanent portfolio" portion of my portfolio consisting of 25% each of stock, long bond, cash, gold.

-Brad.

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                                   CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                   Mar     YTD     since   since   since   since
                   2019    2019    2016    2014    2009    1999
VFINX              1.95%  13.65%  12.73%  10.60%  14.06%   6.11%
Sheltered Sam      0.73%  12.17%  10.37%   7.58%  11.92%   7.57%
Hot Hands          1.67%  16.21%   3.35%   2.99%  10.35%  10.10%
                  
Newsletter G       0.44%  13.00%  11.48%   9.37%  13.67%   9.61%
Newsletter G-IND   0.71%  12.80%  11.47%   8.92%  13.64%   7.01%
LS G               1.31%  10.55%   9.15%   6.73%  10.34%   5.50%
3 fund             1.32%  10.68%   9.17%   6.55%  10.15%   5.99%
s&d                0.92%  10.79%   8.25%   6.22%  10.13%   7.22%

Code: Select all

Newsletter CG      0.64%  10.80%  10.81%   8.91%  12.53%   8.15%
Wellington         1.55%   8.64%   9.33%   7.59%  10.51%   7.49%
STAR               1.16%   9.60%   8.61%   6.65%   9.94%   6.71%
coffeehouse        1.19%   9.32%   7.38%   6.11%   9.21%   6.93%
LS MG              1.47%   8.63%   7.71%   5.96%   8.84%   5.39%
                  
Newsletter Inc     1.10%   9.90%   9.29%   8.18%  10.75%   6.24%
Wellesley          1.88%   6.76%   6.80%   5.96%   8.43%   6.69%
LS CG              1.69%   6.75%   6.23%   5.12%   7.25%   5.03%
                  
madsinger          0.73%   7.69%   7.37%   5.08%   9.24%   
madsinger PP       1.40%   4.57%   6.04%         

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madsinger
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Re: madsinger monthly report (March 2019)

Post by madsinger » Sun Apr 14, 2019 1:03 pm

Well...it's still the first half of April. It's been a busy couple of weeks.

If you can remember back to March, it was a good month for the portfolios. All positive again for the month. Stocks were fine, and bonds had a very good month.

The Permanent Portfolio shows strong stock returns (up almost 2%) and crazy high Long Bond returns (almost +5.5%). Gold took a breather. S&P 500 is up almost +13.5% for the first quarter of the year. Fun times...but make sure your asset allocation is within your comfort level for the inevitable and unpredictable downturn.

-Brad.

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         STOCK  LONG BOND  CASH    GOLD    PORTFOLIO 
January  7.97%    0.42%    0.13%   2.85%     2.71%
February 3.21%   -1.21%    0.16%  -0.47%     0.40%
March    1.91%    5.44%    0.14%  -1.59%     1.40%
               
YTD     13.49%    4.57%    0.43%   0.73%     4.57%

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ankonaman
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Re: madsinger monthly report (March 2019)

Post by ankonaman » Sun Apr 14, 2019 1:32 pm

I always look forward to reading your synopsis. Very enlightening. Still liking my W/W. :sharebeer

Trader Joe
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Re: madsinger monthly report (March 2019)

Post by Trader Joe » Sun Apr 14, 2019 4:45 pm

madsinger wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 1:00 pm
Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their March 2019 returns, 2019 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2009, 2014, and 2016 (20 years 3 months, 10 years 3 months, 5 years 3 months, 3 years 3 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFIAX, VVIAX, VSMAX, VSIAX, VGSLX, 25 VTIAX, 5 VINEX, 20 VTABX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFIAX, 25% VVIAX, 5% VSMAX, 15% VSIAX, 10% VGSLX, 3% IAU, 5% each VEUSX, VPADX, VEMAX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 50/6/11/33 stock/REIT/Gold/bond. The madsingerPP portfolio is the "permanent portfolio" portion of my portfolio consisting of 25% each of stock, long bond, cash, gold.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                   CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                   Mar     YTD     since   since   since   since
                   2019    2019    2016    2014    2009    1999
VFINX              1.95%  13.65%  12.73%  10.60%  14.06%   6.11%
Sheltered Sam      0.73%  12.17%  10.37%   7.58%  11.92%   7.57%
Hot Hands          1.67%  16.21%   3.35%   2.99%  10.35%  10.10%
                  
Newsletter G       0.44%  13.00%  11.48%   9.37%  13.67%   9.61%
Newsletter G-IND   0.71%  12.80%  11.47%   8.92%  13.64%   7.01%
LS G               1.31%  10.55%   9.15%   6.73%  10.34%   5.50%
3 fund             1.32%  10.68%   9.17%   6.55%  10.15%   5.99%
s&d                0.92%  10.79%   8.25%   6.22%  10.13%   7.22%

Code: Select all

Newsletter CG      0.64%  10.80%  10.81%   8.91%  12.53%   8.15%
Wellington         1.55%   8.64%   9.33%   7.59%  10.51%   7.49%
STAR               1.16%   9.60%   8.61%   6.65%   9.94%   6.71%
coffeehouse        1.19%   9.32%   7.38%   6.11%   9.21%   6.93%
LS MG              1.47%   8.63%   7.71%   5.96%   8.84%   5.39%
                  
Newsletter Inc     1.10%   9.90%   9.29%   8.18%  10.75%   6.24%
Wellesley          1.88%   6.76%   6.80%   5.96%   8.43%   6.69%
LS CG              1.69%   6.75%   6.23%   5.12%   7.25%   5.03%
                  
madsinger          0.73%   7.69%   7.37%   5.08%   9.24%   
madsinger PP       1.40%   4.57%   6.04%         
I myself invest 100% in the Vanguard S&P 500 (VFIAX), so I am doing great. Question, what is "Hot Hands"?

Jags4186
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Re: madsinger monthly report (March 2019)

Post by Jags4186 » Sun Apr 14, 2019 4:59 pm

Hot hands is going 100% in to the best performing asset class from the prior year.

ResearchMed
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Re: madsinger monthly report (March 2019)

Post by ResearchMed » Sun Apr 14, 2019 6:40 pm

Jags4186 wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 4:59 pm
Hot hands is going 100% in to the best performing asset class from the prior year.

"Hot Hands" is the previous calendar year's BEST Vanguard equity fund that is not a sector fund or high minimum, etc.

It's not asset class based, unless the "best performing fund last year" was a targeted type (like sm cap growth rather than S&P or total stock).

And not everyone who uses Hot Hands uses it for 100% of their holdings.
Some may have a running sub-total that keeps switching to the new year's Hot Hands fund, for example.

RM
This signature is a placebo. You are in the control group.

Trader Joe
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Re: madsinger monthly report (March 2019)

Post by Trader Joe » Sun Apr 14, 2019 6:47 pm

Jags4186 wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 4:59 pm
Hot hands is going 100% in to the best performing asset class from the prior year.
And...? What is that?

ResearchMed
Posts: 8512
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: madsinger monthly report (March 2019)

Post by ResearchMed » Sun Apr 14, 2019 7:05 pm

Trader Joe wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 6:47 pm
Jags4186 wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 4:59 pm
Hot hands is going 100% in to the best performing asset class from the prior year.
And...? What is that?
Look at the year end returns at Vanguard in very early January, and find the equity fund that had the best full year returns. Ignore sector funds and international.

That would be the one.

(The Newsletter itself is by paid subscription, so we here tend not to give out the specific recommendations, which are also protected proprietary info, etc.)

RM
This signature is a placebo. You are in the control group.

Jags4186
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Re: madsinger monthly report (March 2019)

Post by Jags4186 » Sun Apr 14, 2019 7:40 pm

ResearchMed wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 6:40 pm
Jags4186 wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 4:59 pm
Hot hands is going 100% in to the best performing asset class from the prior year.

"Hot Hands" is the previous calendar year's BEST Vanguard equity fund that is not a sector fund or high minimum, etc.

It's not asset class based, unless the "best performing fund last year" was a targeted type (like sm cap growth rather than S&P or total stock).

And not everyone who uses Hot Hands uses it for 100% of their holdings.
Some may have a running sub-total that keeps switching to the new year's Hot Hands fund, for example.

RM
Thanks for the clarification. I had a vague idea and thought it was a stupid strategy. Your explanation doesn’t change my thoughts.

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Re: madsinger monthly report (March 2019)

Post by LadyGeek » Sun Apr 14, 2019 10:06 pm

FYI - A complete report history is in the wiki: Madsinger monthly reports
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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