U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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robertmcd
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by robertmcd » Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:39 am

HomerJ wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:32 am
robertmcd wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:16 am
I will continue to load up on US stock and long term treasury bonds. People in short term treasuries are exposed to substantial interest rate risk in my opinion.
It's the exact opposite. Long-term bond funds have substantial interest rate risk.

Unless you're talking about individual treasury bonds that you plan to hold until they mature.
Sorry I was talking about reinvestment risk.

Not true, just because you don't sell something doesn't mean it hasn't dropped in value.

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dogagility
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by dogagility » Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:41 am

InvestorNewb wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 10:26 am
Anyone else getting concerned? These past few weeks have been great. :moneybag
Not in the slightest. I'm comfortable with my AA no matter the market's short-term trajectory.
Taking "risk" since 1995.

robertmcd
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by robertmcd » Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:43 am

TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:33 am
robertmcd wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:29 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:19 am
robertmcd wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:16 am
InvestorNewb wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 10:26 am
Anyone else getting concerned? These past few weeks have been great. :moneybag
Yes I am very concerned. We are witnessing the "there is no alternative trade right now" and essentially uncontrolled asset price inflation. The worse the economic data gets, the higher the market goes due to the Fed put. Back in Dec people were actually starting to think that the Fed was going to stop backstopping the markets to protect the dollar, but now everyone knows there is no way out. I will continue to load up on US stock and long term treasury bonds. People in short term treasuries are exposed to substantial interest rate risk in my opinion.
I can't make heads or tails of this, especially the last sentence. Short-term bonds have less interest rate risk than long-term bonds.
I am talking about interest rate reinvestment risk. Those nice 2 year yields will not be around in a year or two.
The only reason to touch a long bond is if you plan on trading it well before maturity (bond market timing), otherwise you could get a better return with a 10 year CD.
Even though CD's yield more, I prefer treasuries for the diversification with equities, and the ability to make capital gains by buying bonds when they are a good value and selling when yields drop. And the liquidity.

I did use no penalty CD's to outperform money markets/savings and short term treasuries until increasing my treasury positions in 2018.

I am a bond market timer

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dogagility
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by dogagility » Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:44 am

H-Town wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:36 am
There's no fun here in this thread... Nothing like U.S. stocks in free fall thread.

Ya'll are a boring bunch.

Drop mic.

I'll show myself out.
There's peace and contentment when you know you're right. :wink:
Taking "risk" since 1995.

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abuss368
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 » Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:45 am

The market in on an incredible upswing again. Not the least bit worried as I am comfortable with our asset allocation and plan to stay the course. If the market drops, and a rebalancing opportunity presents itself, we will do so.

Smart investors tune out the noise.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord » Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:47 am

robertmcd wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:43 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:33 am
robertmcd wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:29 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:19 am
robertmcd wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:16 am


Yes I am very concerned. We are witnessing the "there is no alternative trade right now" and essentially uncontrolled asset price inflation. The worse the economic data gets, the higher the market goes due to the Fed put. Back in Dec people were actually starting to think that the Fed was going to stop backstopping the markets to protect the dollar, but now everyone knows there is no way out. I will continue to load up on US stock and long term treasury bonds. People in short term treasuries are exposed to substantial interest rate risk in my opinion.
I can't make heads or tails of this, especially the last sentence. Short-term bonds have less interest rate risk than long-term bonds.
I am talking about interest rate reinvestment risk. Those nice 2 year yields will not be around in a year or two.
The only reason to touch a long bond is if you plan on trading it well before maturity (bond market timing), otherwise you could get a better return with a 10 year CD.
Even though CD's yield more, I prefer treasuries for the diversification with equities, and the ability to make capital gains by buying bonds when they are a good value and selling when yields drop. And the liquidity.

I did use no penalty CD's to outperform money markets/savings and short term treasuries until increasing my treasury positions in 2018.

I am a bond market timer
You can sell brokered CDs but they are not as liquid as Treasuries. I bought a 5 year in early December that is up a surprising amount. But if you want to time the bond market long bonds would be the instrument of choice.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

robertmcd
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by robertmcd » Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:55 am

Correct. You can also front run brokered CD yields dropping. It is amazing how much delay there is between treasury bonds yields dropping and brokered CD's dropping. The spreads are large though.

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ » Fri Apr 05, 2019 1:18 pm

robertmcd wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:39 am
Sorry I was talking about reinvestment risk.
How is reinvestment risk a thing to worry about, but interest rate risk not a thing to worry about?

They are two sides of the same coin.
The J stands for Jay

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InvestorNewb
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by InvestorNewb » Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:02 pm

goingup wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:27 am
InvestorNewb wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 10:26 am
Anyone else getting concerned? These past few weeks have been great. :moneybag
No. Not any more concerned than usual. InvestorNewb, do you still have your big dollop (20-25%) of REIT fund? That fund is having a good run at present. :beer
I haven't made new contributions to my REIT fund (apart from dividend reinvestment) in a long time so it's down to about 15% of my portfolio. I can't complain :)
My Portfolio: VTI [US], VXUS [Int'l], VNQ [REIT], VCN [Canada] (largest to smallest)

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Apr 05, 2019 4:46 pm

abuss368 wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:45 am
The market in on an incredible upswing again.
I like to buy the dips. This slow steady rise is making me nervous. We need a 6% one day swing in the S&P. I miss 2018, sigh. :(

WhiteMaxima
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by WhiteMaxima » Fri Apr 05, 2019 4:53 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 4:46 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:45 am
The market in on an incredible upswing again.
I like to buy the dips. This slow steady rise is making me nervous. We need a 6% one day swing in the S&P. I miss 2018, sigh. :(
Be careful what you wish for. the market is at its sweet spot now. Fed is stopping raise short term interest. inflation is still under 2%. QT is stopped. jobless rate is 3.8%. US economy is lukewarm. Showing signs of slowing down. All depend on the Fed. Right now is good not bad.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Apr 05, 2019 5:02 pm

WhiteMaxima wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 4:53 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 4:46 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:45 am
The market in on an incredible upswing again.
I like to buy the dips. This slow steady rise is making me nervous. We need a 6% one day swing in the S&P. I miss 2018, sigh. :(
Be careful what you wish for. the market is at its sweet spot now. Fed is stopping raise short term interest. inflation is still under 2%. QT is stopped. jobless rate is 3.8%. US economy is lukewarm. Showing signs of slowing down. All depend on the Fed. Right now is good not bad.
Now is the time for a senseless "V" crash. The fundamentals are solid. I have to buy VTI and hate to buy on an up day. Waiting for a flash crash.

WhiteMaxima
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by WhiteMaxima » Fri Apr 05, 2019 5:04 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 5:02 pm
WhiteMaxima wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 4:53 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 4:46 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:45 am
The market in on an incredible upswing again.
I like to buy the dips. This slow steady rise is making me nervous. We need a 6% one day swing in the S&P. I miss 2018, sigh. :(
Be careful what you wish for. the market is at its sweet spot now. Fed is stopping raise short term interest. inflation is still under 2%. QT is stopped. jobless rate is 3.8%. US economy is lukewarm. Showing signs of slowing down. All depend on the Fed. Right now is good not bad.
Now is the time for a senseless "V" crash. The fundamentals are solid. I have to buy VTI and hate to buy on an up day. Waiting for a flash crash.
If you are in you target AA, you don't have to do anything. I am now 80/20 so I plan to do nothing.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Apr 05, 2019 5:11 pm

WhiteMaxima wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 5:04 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 5:02 pm
WhiteMaxima wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 4:53 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 4:46 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:45 am
The market in on an incredible upswing again.
I like to buy the dips. This slow steady rise is making me nervous. We need a 6% one day swing in the S&P. I miss 2018, sigh. :(
Be careful what you wish for. the market is at its sweet spot now. Fed is stopping raise short term interest. inflation is still under 2%. QT is stopped. jobless rate is 3.8%. US economy is lukewarm. Showing signs of slowing down. All depend on the Fed. Right now is good not bad.
Now is the time for a senseless "V" crash. The fundamentals are solid. I have to buy VTI and hate to buy on an up day. Waiting for a flash crash.
If you are in you target AA, you don't have to do anything. I am now 80/20 so I plan to do nothing.
I'm still in the accumulation phase and invest every month, even when I don't want too. Forced dollar cost averaging. I'm going all in for April on the next dip.

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oldzey
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by oldzey » Fri Apr 05, 2019 5:21 pm

U.S. stocks... I'll take 3,573 of them, please!

Soar high, U.S. stocks!

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abuss368
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 » Fri Apr 05, 2019 7:31 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 4:46 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:45 am
The market in on an incredible upswing again.
I like to buy the dips. This slow steady rise is making me nervous. We need a 6% one day swing in the S&P. I miss 2018, sigh. :(
Agree. For years when we traded individual stocks and there would be any pullback, we would trade even more. We had a lot of fees and taxes. When we moved back to Vanguard, and 2008 happened, we did "it different this time". Developed a strategy and stayed the course. In hindsight, moving to Vanguard and staying the course was the best financial decision we ever made.

Thank you Jack Bogle!
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abuss368
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 » Fri Apr 05, 2019 7:31 pm

oldzey wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 5:21 pm
U.S. stocks... I'll take 3,573 of them, please!

Soar high, U.S. stocks!

Image
:sharebeer
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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:48 am

OMG, I hope youz are all in. :greedy

Admiral
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Admiral » Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:51 am

What's today's theory-of-the-moment on today's open? Just curious.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Apr 12, 2019 9:00 am

Admiral wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:51 am
What's today's theory-of-the-moment on today's open? Just curious.
China is going to capitulate on trade.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by livesoft » Fri Apr 12, 2019 9:12 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 9:00 am
China is going to capitulate on trade.
I'm not buying it.
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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Apr 12, 2019 10:03 am

livesoft wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 9:12 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 9:00 am
China is going to capitulate on trade.
I'm not buying it.
What is important is the algorithms are buying it. I did not see this coming; I'm still sitting on 1/2 my dollar cost averaging for April. :oops:

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2pedals
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 2pedals » Fri Apr 12, 2019 10:57 am

All these soaring, crashing and timing posts, plus all the talking heads everyday leads to far too much confusion. A new china trade agreement will lead to newer and newest trade deals and is just mostly noise for the long term investor. I like to remember the simple wisdom given to Jack Bogle early in his career -- nobody knows nothin'. Remembering this wisdom is kind of like placing noise cancelling headphones over my ears.

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Tycoon
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Tycoon » Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:20 am

Admiral wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:51 am
What's today's theory-of-the-moment on today's open? Just curious.
I am buying.
“To know what you know and what you do not know, that is true knowledge.” Confucius

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oldzey
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by oldzey » Fri Apr 12, 2019 6:50 pm

Tycoon wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:20 am
Admiral wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:51 am
What's today's theory-of-the-moment on today's open? Just curious.
I am buying.
Always a good day to buy U.S. stocks. :beer

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky » Fri Apr 12, 2019 7:06 pm

2pedals wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 10:57 am
All these soaring, crashing and timing posts, plus all the talking heads everyday leads to far too much confusion. A new china trade agreement will lead to newer and newest trade deals and is just mostly noise for the long term investor. I like to remember the simple wisdom given to Jack Bogle early in his career -- nobody knows nothin'. Remembering this wisdom is kind of like placing noise cancelling headphones over my ears.
I’m loving this market!
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

NYCwriter
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by NYCwriter » Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:18 pm

I'm happy. I'm close to passing a milestone in assets for retirement. As someone who doesn't earn a lot, but has invested for a long time, it's a good feeling.

I do sometimes get to second-guessing whenever the market is up or down dramatically. That's when I come here. :D

I just realized the other day that I haven't sold a single share of VTSAX in taxable for all the years I've held it. Just DCA those small amounts into it. Retirement contributions are on autopilot.

stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by stocknoob4111 » Fri Apr 12, 2019 10:07 pm

Domestic equities doing the heavy lifting, unfortunately the 20% I have in International Equities have just been a total bust in the last year and a half and it does not seem to be getting any breaks... every time it goes up 1% it drops 1.5% soon enough LOL!

NYCwriter
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by NYCwriter » Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:27 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 10:07 pm
Domestic equities doing the heavy lifting, unfortunately the 20% I have in International Equities have just been a total bust in the last year and a half and it does not seem to be getting any breaks... every time it goes up 1% it drops 1.5% soon enough LOL!
I had around 19% and reduced VEA slightly last year. Currently around 18%. I'd exchanged from Total into VEA/VWO at the end of 2015, and VWO did well enough through 2018. I'm always tempted to take some long profits, but having minimum 16-18% in int'ls has been part of my plan for a long time. I have more faith in EM over the long term either way.

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mrspock
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock » Sat Apr 13, 2019 2:53 am

InvestorNewb wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 10:26 am
Anyone else getting concerned? These past few weeks have been great. :moneybag
What’s to be concerned about? We just got back to highs from 15 months ago. Not to be ungrateful to Mr. Market, but he feels pretty stingy to me. New high...tanks... new high... tanks again... back to old high. Doesn’t feel exactly like a raging bull to me.

I’ll start to be concerned in another 25% over the next 24 months if we get some real momentum.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Sat Apr 13, 2019 6:35 am

NYCwriter wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:18 pm
As someone who doesn't earn a lot, but has invested for a long time, it's a good feeling.
I too was working class all my life. By using Boglehead principals of living I'm doing fine. I'm amazed at how much money I now get for doing nothing; what a country. :greedy
mrspock wrote:
Sat Apr 13, 2019 2:53 am
InvestorNewb wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 10:26 am
Anyone else getting concerned? These past few weeks have been great.
What’s to be concerned about? We just got back to highs from 15 months ago.
VOO is still 1.5% below September 2018 highs. That doesn't count dividends though. Dividends make the register ring too. Buying after Christmas VOO is up over 20%. :greedy

DeadPoets
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by DeadPoets » Sat Apr 13, 2019 8:06 am

This market goes as the Fed goes.

When rate hikes resume, the sell off begins.

When Powell once again uses language like, “we aren’t even close to neutral,” the sell off deepens.

The trade deal is def just noise at this point.

NYCwriter
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by NYCwriter » Sun Apr 14, 2019 12:38 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Sat Apr 13, 2019 6:35 am
NYCwriter wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:18 pm
As someone who doesn't earn a lot, but has invested for a long time, it's a good feeling.
I too was working class all my life. By using Boglehead principals of living I'm doing fine. I'm amazed at how much money I now get for doing nothing; what a country. :greedy
mrspock wrote:
Sat Apr 13, 2019 2:53 am
InvestorNewb wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 10:26 am
Anyone else getting concerned? These past few weeks have been great.
What’s to be concerned about? We just got back to highs from 15 months ago.
VOO is still 1.5% below September 2018 highs. That doesn't count dividends though. Dividends make the register ring too. Buying after Christmas VOO is up over 20%. :greedy
Were the capital gains higher for you, too? Nothing I could do about the drop, and since I'm not retiring, I rebalanced into equities on Christmas Eve. Recently, I'm adding a little more to treasuries and bond funds and keeping my eye on allocation. Dividends and gains across the board (including taxable) allow me to maximize my retirement contributions, which is important at this stage.

NYCwriter
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by NYCwriter » Sun Apr 14, 2019 12:43 pm

DeadPoets wrote:
Sat Apr 13, 2019 8:06 am
This market goes as the Fed goes.

When rate hikes resume, the sell off begins.

When Powell once again uses language like, “we aren’t even close to neutral,” the sell off deepens.

The trade deal is def just noise at this point.
I wasn't expecting the fed pirouette (was anyone?) and I know the fed is significant to what happens. If I felt the economy was weaker, I'd be more concerned. But time in market v timing the market has actually worked out well. I just wish MY wages would go up more. Downside of public service, I guess.

mary1969
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mary1969 » Sun Apr 14, 2019 1:04 pm

How is the 2009 to 2016 fear mongerer Rick Santelli doing these days? Has anyone been more wrong on a biz network TV than him. Too bad if you fell victim to his antics. Can never be under estimated what financial damage these fear mongering types have caused over the years. Tragic. Beware!! Give yourself an ovation if you ignored him.

columbia
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by columbia » Sun Apr 14, 2019 1:12 pm

mary1969 wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 1:04 pm
How is the 2009 to 2016 fear mongerer Rick Santelli doing these days? Has anyone been more wrong on a biz network TV than him. Too bad if you fell victim to his antics. Can never be under estimated what financial damage these fear mongering types have caused over the years. Tragic. Beware!! Give yourself an ovation if you ignored him.
Knowing Santelli’s broader....predilections, that timeframe doesn’t surprise me.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Sun Apr 14, 2019 2:30 pm

mary1969 wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 1:04 pm
... Rick Santelli ...
I hit the mute button when he comes on; I can't stand his ranting, it gets on my nerves.

Trader Joe
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Trader Joe » Sun Apr 14, 2019 5:09 pm

I cannot believe making money is this easy. Everyone should know.

Freefun
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Freefun » Sun Apr 14, 2019 5:18 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 2:30 pm
mary1969 wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 1:04 pm
... Rick Santelli ...
I hit the mute button when he comes on; I can't stand his ranting, it gets on my nerves.
I feel the same way. Also about Cramer. I think we should send both to any peace process negotiation. All sides will agree to anything.
Remember when you wanted what you currently have?

GoldenFinch
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoldenFinch » Sun Apr 14, 2019 7:33 pm

Freefun wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 5:18 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 2:30 pm
mary1969 wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 1:04 pm
... Rick Santelli ...
I hit the mute button when he comes on; I can't stand his ranting, it gets on my nerves.
I feel the same way. Also about Cramer. I think we should send both to any peace process negotiation. All sides will agree to anything.
Since they both yell a lot, I tend to tune them out until someone else who can speak normally comes back on.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:17 am

"Sell in May and go away."
Image

GoldenFinch
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoldenFinch » Mon Apr 15, 2019 11:24 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:17 am
"Sell in May and go away."
Image
A fine example of rhyming noise mixed with Business Insider Chart of the Day noise.
Last edited by GoldenFinch on Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:03 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by veggivet » Mon Apr 15, 2019 11:40 am

Since 1945, the S&P 500 has averaged a 1.4% return in the May-October period. November through April returns an average return of 6.6%.
If you watch your pennies, your dollars will take care of themselves.

barnaclebob
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by barnaclebob » Mon Apr 15, 2019 11:48 am

Short in May and while you grow your Hay!

fanmail
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by fanmail » Mon Apr 15, 2019 12:19 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:17 am
"Sell in May and go away."
Image
Is there an updated version through 2018?

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Mon Apr 15, 2019 12:54 pm

fanmail wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 12:19 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:17 am
"Sell in May and go away."
Image
Is there an updated version through 2018?
This was the first chart that came up in search. Today a talking head on CNBC reminded me of that quip. That along with the "Santa Clause rally" are the two big sayings on The Street.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord » Mon Apr 15, 2019 12:58 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 12:54 pm
fanmail wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 12:19 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:17 am
"Sell in May and go away."
Image
Is there an updated version through 2018?
This was the first chart that came up in search. Today a talking head on CNBC reminded me of that quip. That along with the "Santa Clause rally" are the two big sayings on The Street.
I hope the irony is not lost.
J G Bankerton wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 2:30 pm
mary1969 wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 1:04 pm
... Rick Santelli ...
I hit the mute button when he comes on; I can't stand his ranting, it gets on my nerves.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

Benosis
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Benosis » Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:21 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:17 am
"Sell in May and go away."
Image
veggivet wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 11:40 am
Since 1945, the S&P 500 has averaged a 1.4% return in the May-October period. November through April returns an average return of 6.6%.
barnaclebob wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 11:48 am
Short in May and while you grow your Hay!
GoldenFinch wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 11:24 am
An fine example of rhyming noise mixed with Business Insider Chart of the Day noise.
I got $6,000 ready to go in VTSAX for the 2019 contribution limit. Should I wait till the end of May to buy or just put it all in right now and not try to time the market?

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Portfolio7
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Portfolio7 » Mon Apr 15, 2019 11:37 pm

Interestingly enough, June July and August are fine, it's September that's the problem. Feb and May are marginal. July appears to be the best month of all from 1928 to 2018, per Yardeni's data. Of course, 2016 and 2018 are mostly inverted, showing pretty good results for May - Sept. Also, this past Feb 2019 was pretty good too. Hmmm.

I'm not aware of any structural reasons for any one month to be better than others that wouldn't be priced into the market. Without structural reasons, there is no way to calculate odds, I can only calculate correlation, which is often misleading. Long term equity returns have been about 10% nominal in most global markets (with some exceptions, for sure), driven by economic and productivity growth. It seems to me like the sound strategy is to stay invested

https://www.yardeni.com/pub/stmktreturns.pdf
An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:32 am

Benosis wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:21 pm
I got $6,000 ready to go in VTSAX for the 2019 contribution limit. Should I wait till the end of May to buy or just put it all in right now and not try to time the market?
I would not wait for the 2020 Santa Clause rally.

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