[Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons or Pinwheel Portfolio, which to choose?]

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iudiehard1
Posts: 20
Joined: Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:40 pm

[Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons or Pinwheel Portfolio, which to choose?]

Post by iudiehard1 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:52 pm

[Moved into a new thread from: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio --admin LadyGeek]

Love this forum as I have been kicking this portfolio around. I am a cross between the Pinwheel and the All Seasons. What is everyone thoughts on the following made up mostly of Fidelity Low Cost Funds. Any tweaks you would make? I am going to move my 300K (100k ROTH and 200k Traditional) and wondering if you would consider putting any specific in the Roth vs traditional?

15% Vanguard Selected Value Fund (VASVX) .39
7.5% Fidelity ZERO International Index Fund (FZILX) 0.00
7.5% Fidelity Emerging Markets Index Fund (FPADX) .075
15% Fidelity Zero Extended Market Index Fund (FZIPX) 0.00
10% Fidelity Intermediate Treasury Bond Index (FUAMX) .03
10% Fidelity Short-Term Bond Index Fund (FNSOX) .03
10% Fidelity Corporate Bond Fund (FCBFX) .45
10% Fidelity Real Estate Index Fund (FSRNX) .07
15% iShares Gold Trust (IAU) .25
Proverbs 13:20 - Walk with the wise and become wise, for a companion of fools suffers harm.

bloom2708
Posts: 6976
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Location: Fargo, ND

Re: [Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons or Pinwheel Portfolio, which to choose?]

Post by bloom2708 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:32 pm

You lost me at 15% gold. :shock:

Every slice has overlap and is a small portion of the portfolio. Keeping these percentages "on par" will be not fun. You will be "off par" much of the time. That changes the risk/return profile.

You over weight certain sectors and slice bonds up too much. Not enough Total US stocks for my liking.

These portfolios are back-tested beauties but in practice would be not fun to maintain or stick with.

Do you have a workplace 401k/403b type plan? Taxable brokerage account? Your portfolio is one big entity. All these slices do not need to be everywhere.

401k - All your bonds, balance in stock index funds (depends on options, expense ratios)
Traditional IRA - Bonds if they don't fit above, balance in stock index funds (Total US and/or Total International)
Roth IRAs - Stock index funds. If you are going to slice/tilt, do it here
HSA - Depends on options and costs
Taxable/brokerage - Stock index funds. Total US and/or Total International

My post may entice you to do this type of portfolio even more. It might be fine if you can stick with it and keep those funds in balance. I would not do 15% gold. 5% max if you must.

Good luck! I'm sure others will chime in. Total market, few funds possible, tax efficient placement, lost cost, tilt in Roth, bonds in 401k or traditional, stocks everywhere else. Accept market returns and go play golf or go for a bike ride. :wink:
"People want confirmation, not advice" Unknown | "We are here to provoke thoughtfulness, not agree with you" Unknown | Four words. Whole food, plant based. Bing it.

rich126
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Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2018 4:56 pm

Re: [Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons or Pinwheel Portfolio, which to choose?]

Post by rich126 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:41 pm

What is your prime goal? Minimize draw downs? Max returns?

I've played around with a lot of portfolios in back tests and while the results look good with gold, I just can't put 15% or probably 10% in gold. I think something like 60% intermediate treasuries, 15% US market, 15% ex-US market and 10% small cap gives good back testing results with fairly low draw downs (max of 20%?). My issue with doing that is that I have a tough time believing bonds will give me an real return over the next decade or so.

Seems like a lot of funds.

Topic Author
iudiehard1
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Joined: Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:40 pm

Re: [Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons or Pinwheel Portfolio, which to choose?]

Post by iudiehard1 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:42 pm

Thanks for the feedback. I thought the Gold would get someone’s attention. I consider cutting it in half and adding another hedge with commodities? Also, this is all in a self directed 401k at work. Roth and Traditional 401k
Proverbs 13:20 - Walk with the wise and become wise, for a companion of fools suffers harm.

Topic Author
iudiehard1
Posts: 20
Joined: Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:40 pm

Re: [Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons or Pinwheel Portfolio, which to choose?]

Post by iudiehard1 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:46 pm

My goal is to set it and forget it with a rebalance each year with the goal of beating the S&P without the severe volatility of equities only portfolio. That and a beach house in the mountains should just about do it :D
Proverbs 13:20 - Walk with the wise and become wise, for a companion of fools suffers harm.

bloom2708
Posts: 6976
Joined: Wed Apr 02, 2014 2:08 pm
Location: Fargo, ND

Re: [Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons or Pinwheel Portfolio, which to choose?]

Post by bloom2708 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:06 pm

iudiehard1 wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:46 pm
My goal is to set it and forget it with a rebalance each year with the goal of beating the S&P without the severe volatility of equities only portfolio. That and a beach house in the mountains should just about do it :D
I don't think you can have a 9-10 fund "set it and forget it" portfolio. Re-balancing once a year instead of when you are off by 3-5% will result in you being "off allocation" for a big portion of the year.

How about LifeStrategy moderate growth (60/40) in both accounts? That would be set it and forget it. :D
"People want confirmation, not advice" Unknown | "We are here to provoke thoughtfulness, not agree with you" Unknown | Four words. Whole food, plant based. Bing it.

pward
Posts: 393
Joined: Fri Dec 21, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: [Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons or Pinwheel Portfolio, which to choose?]

Post by pward » Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:20 pm

iudiehard1 wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:42 pm
Thanks for the feedback. I thought the Gold would get someone’s attention. I consider cutting it in half and adding another hedge with commodities? Also, this is all in a self directed 401k at work. Roth and Traditional 401k
I wouldn't cut it down. Gold is a much better inflation and political hedge than the other commodities. Gold is a fine asset that marches to the beat of it's own drum, and it really compliments stocks and bonds well. If anything I would be tempted in All-Seasons to remove the 7.5% to commodities and go full 15% to gold. Both the Pinwheel and All-Seasons portfolios model well and are great representations of MPT. I am a big fan of both. Also, check out the Golden Butterfly if you haven't already.

For convenience of stat comparison:

Pinwheel: https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/p ... portfolio/
All-Seasons: https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/a ... portfolio/
Golden Butterfly: https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/golden-butterfly/


Also, I tend to prioritize bonds in traditional and stocks in Roth where possible, as the more capitol appreciation in the Roth portion the better.

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Taylor Larimore
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The Three-Fund Portfolio

Post by Taylor Larimore » Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:05 am

iudiehard1:

I think you would be wise to consider The Three-Fund Portfolio with its many benefits:

The Three-Fund Portfolio

Best wishes
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

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nedsaid
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Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2012 12:33 pm

Re: [Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons or Pinwheel Portfolio, which to choose?]

Post by nedsaid » Mon Jun 24, 2019 1:28 pm

iudiehard1 wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:52 pm
[Moved into a new thread from: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio --admin LadyGeek]

Love this forum as I have been kicking this portfolio around. I am a cross between the Pinwheel and the All Seasons. What is everyone thoughts on the following made up mostly of Fidelity Low Cost Funds. Any tweaks you would make? I am going to move my 300K (100k ROTH and 200k Traditional) and wondering if you would consider putting any specific in the Roth vs traditional?

15% Vanguard Selected Value Fund (VASVX) .39
7.5% Fidelity ZERO International Index Fund (FZILX) 0.00
7.5% Fidelity Emerging Markets Index Fund (FPADX) .075
15% Fidelity Zero Extended Market Index Fund (FZIPX) 0.00
10% Fidelity Intermediate Treasury Bond Index (FUAMX) .03
10% Fidelity Short-Term Bond Index Fund (FNSOX) .03
10% Fidelity Corporate Bond Fund (FCBFX) .45
10% Fidelity Real Estate Index Fund (FSRNX) .07
15% iShares Gold Trust (IAU) .25
This looks like a perfectly good portfolio but it would help if you explained the rationale behind it. I have seen the Ray Dalio All-Weather Portfolio popularized by Tony Robbins. I don't know what the Pinwheel portfolio is. My guess is that you are trying to build an all-weather portfolio.

So tell you what. Why not explain what you are trying to accomplish with the portfolio and a reason for including each slice? It might be we could either help you with your philosophy behind the portfolio or better alternatives for your portfolio slices, or both.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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