Need to park about 1,000,000 for 7-8 months

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AlohaJoe
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Re: Need to park about 1,000,000 for 7-8 months

Post by AlohaJoe » Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:34 pm

printer86 wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 7:11 pm
If I had to decide which currency to be parked in right now, I would pick the one that I feel will be the more stable one during my "parked" timeline.
It doesn't matter if the currency is "stable" or not if your expense is in that currency. The price of the house isn't going to change because the exchange rate changes. The price of houses in the UK isn't going to go up or down by 10% in the weeks after Brexit; just like they didn't change after the vote and the currency tumble back then.

(Anyway, if you really believed your argument, you'd be telling him to put it in Swiss Franks, which are most stable than USD.)

By keeping it in USD you are making the explicit gamble that the GBP will weaken. You are saying that you think forex markets have incorrectly calculated the chances of Brexit and its impact on exchange rates and that you know better. Keep in mind that forex markets are vastly more liquid & efficient than even equities markets, so market timing in currencies is even less plausible than market timing in stocks.

printer86
Posts: 124
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2016 8:45 am

Re: Need to park about 1,000,000 for 7-8 months

Post by printer86 » Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:59 pm

AlohaJoe wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:34 pm
printer86 wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 7:11 pm
If I had to decide which currency to be parked in right now, I would pick the one that I feel will be the more stable one during my "parked" timeline.
It doesn't matter if the currency is "stable" or not if your expense is in that currency. The price of the house isn't going to change because the exchange rate changes. The price of houses in the UK isn't going to go up or down by 10% in the weeks after Brexit; just like they didn't change after the vote and the currency tumble back then.

(Anyway, if you really believed your argument, you'd be telling him to put it in Swiss Franks, which are most stable than USD.)

By keeping it in USD you are making the explicit gamble that the GBP will weaken. You are saying that you think forex markets have incorrectly calculated the chances of Brexit and its impact on exchange rates and that you know better. Keep in mind that forex markets are vastly more liquid & efficient than even equities markets, so market timing in currencies is even less plausible than market timing in stocks.
I guess I am saying that I do think the pound will fall this year as a result of this brexit thing. That’s just my opinion. Also, like you say, housing prices in Britain may not drop as much as the currency might in reaction to brexit. So, that spread exacerbates the situation. This is pure speculation on my part, but it’s why I would park the money in a US based FDIC insured account until I need to use the funds for a major purchase.

petulant
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Re: Need to park about 1,000,000 for 7-8 months

Post by petulant » Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:04 pm

AlohaJoe wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:34 pm
printer86 wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 7:11 pm
If I had to decide which currency to be parked in right now, I would pick the one that I feel will be the more stable one during my "parked" timeline.
It doesn't matter if the currency is "stable" or not if your expense is in that currency. The price of the house isn't going to change because the exchange rate changes. The price of houses in the UK isn't going to go up or down by 10% in the weeks after Brexit; just like they didn't change after the vote and the currency tumble back then.

(Anyway, if you really believed your argument, you'd be telling him to put it in Swiss Franks, which are most stable than USD.)

By keeping it in USD you are making the explicit gamble that the GBP will weaken. You are saying that you think forex markets have incorrectly calculated the chances of Brexit and its impact on exchange rates and that you know better. Keep in mind that forex markets are vastly more liquid & efficient than even equities markets, so market timing in currencies is even less plausible than market timing in stocks.
Actually, there's a key fallacy here. One doesn't have to bet that "forex markets have incorrectly calculated the chances of Brexit" to take a position like holding in USD. The forex markets could correctly calculate the chances of Brexit, but the ultimate outcome could still be in favor of holding USD. Imagine a coin flip, and if you call heads or tails correctly, you get a $1. Each flip is therefore worth $.50. The "forex market" can calculate those odds and potentially buy your coin flips for $.50 a piece. That doesn't mean you should sell all of your coin flips. You get approximately the same outcome by betting heads half the time and tails half the time. You also get the same expected outcome by betting heads with all of your coin flips (it's true! thank about it). Thus the question becomes reducing risk. In this example, it might reduce risk the most to sell all coin flips to the forex market. In the real world, OP might have opinions about heads or tails. There might also be transaction costs or tax considerations affecting time. Therefore, there might be good reasons for OP to keep some exposure to USD to reduce risk, since any risk might be that GBP decreases while he's holding it, and UK real estate may also decrease in an unfavorable Brexit environment.

typical.investor
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Joined: Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:17 am

Re: Need to park about 1,000,000 for 7-8 months

Post by typical.investor » Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:57 pm

inbox788 wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 2:38 pm

I think at this time, it's a passive choice to stay in USD, not active. At some point, an active step must be taken to align the plan with reality. It's not clear if OP is ahead or behind or just right on top of the matter. I'm still trying to figure what this "trigger" event/decision would be.

And whether you call it market timing or not, Brexit is an event that is coming soon and will have consequences. It might be a binary event, or it might get dragged out into a longer process (than it already is), but a known uncertainty event milestone is ahead that will increase volatility. If the risk of job offer being cancelled may be higher with a hard brexit, should that ignored?
If plans might change, that’s a good point. A very good point.

typical.investor
Posts: 1225
Joined: Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:17 am

Re: Need to park about 1,000,000 for 7-8 months

Post by typical.investor » Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:09 pm

petulant wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:04 pm
AlohaJoe wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:34 pm
printer86 wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 7:11 pm
If I had to decide which currency to be parked in right now, I would pick the one that I feel will be the more stable one during my "parked" timeline.
It doesn't matter if the currency is "stable" or not if your expense is in that currency. The price of the house isn't going to change because the exchange rate changes. The price of houses in the UK isn't going to go up or down by 10% in the weeks after Brexit; just like they didn't change after the vote and the currency tumble back then.

(Anyway, if you really believed your argument, you'd be telling him to put it in Swiss Franks, which are most stable than USD.)

By keeping it in USD you are making the explicit gamble that the GBP will weaken. You are saying that you think forex markets have incorrectly calculated the chances of Brexit and its impact on exchange rates and that you know better. Keep in mind that forex markets are vastly more liquid & efficient than even equities markets, so market timing in currencies is even less plausible than market timing in stocks.
Actually, there's a key fallacy here. One doesn't have to bet that "forex markets have incorrectly calculated the chances of Brexit" to take a position like holding in USD. The forex markets could correctly calculate the chances of Brexit, but the ultimate outcome could still be in favor of holding USD. Imagine a coin flip, and if you call heads or tails correctly, you get a $1. Each flip is therefore worth $.50. The "forex market" can calculate those odds and potentially buy your coin flips for $.50 a piece. That doesn't mean you should sell all of your coin flips. You get approximately the same outcome by betting heads half the time and tails half the time. You also get the same expected outcome by betting heads with all of your coin flips (it's true! thank about it). Thus the question becomes reducing risk. In this example, it might reduce risk the most to sell all coin flips to the forex market. In the real world, OP might have opinions about heads or tails. There might also be transaction costs or tax considerations affecting time. Therefore, there might be good reasons for OP to keep some exposure to USD to reduce risk, since any risk might be that GBP decreases while he's holding it, and UK real estate may also decrease in an unfavorable Brexit environment.
Have you ever lived in a foreign country? It’s not exactly like a coin flip. Things often go in cycles for economic or other reasons. I mean given historical levels and where it is now, and what is happening, I don’t think at all that it’s a 50-50 bet.

Holding USD with the intent to spend GBP in a few months is pretty much expecting GBP to stay the same of fall.

There is a real risk it could jump if things turn out well (and even if it’s just OK — uncertainty itself is probably pushing it lower now). So if the OP waits, they could lose a significant amount.

If the OP converts now but doesn’t move, and the pound falls, they’d be hurt too when they have to convert back. So I guess if it’s not decided, they might not want to go all in.

Perhaps it’s best to spend a little and hedge it with an option.

inbox788
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Re: Need to park about 1,000,000 for 7-8 months

Post by inbox788 » Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:29 pm

petulant wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:04 pm
There might also be transaction costs or tax considerations affecting time. Therefore, there might be good reasons for OP to keep some exposure to USD to reduce risk, since any risk might be that GBP decreases while he's holding it, and UK real estate may also decrease in an unfavorable Brexit environment.
It's not my money, but I agree with with the opinion skewing towards both those risks (as stated before viewtopic.php?f=1&t=274780#p4419408 ). I also agree it is market timing. Still, most likely, the market has already accounted for most of the effects (not a hard Brexit, again opinion which may be wrong), so a softer landing should not significantly change the outcome of the home purchase. In fact, if things go as we think, a stronger dollar plus a weaker real estate market in UK will mean double bonus. These nearly $1M flats could potentially be 10 or 20% less! Risk goes both ways, so it could cost 20% more, but my bet is towards the low side. Still, I wouldn't take all the chances, and would at least split the risk in half now and half later, so a net effect of a 20% move would only affect my outcome by 10%, good or bad.
2 bed flat for sale
London Square, 423 425 Caledonian Road, Islington N7
£730,000 [~$962,000]
Average estimated value for a flat in N7:
£494,107
Price decrease -£31,135 (-5.928%) Over the last 12 months
https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/50493313
HAMPSTEAD MANOR
London, England, United Kingdom
$985,108
AMERICAN DOLLAR
£747,500
BRITISH POUND
1
BEDROOMS
1
FULL BATHROOMS
https://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/sale ... /london-en

DJN
Posts: 509
Joined: Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:30 am

Re: Need to park about 1,000,000 for 7-8 months

Post by DJN » Thu Mar 07, 2019 12:12 am

deleted repeat post
Last edited by DJN on Thu Mar 07, 2019 3:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
Yah shure

DJN
Posts: 509
Joined: Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:30 am

Re: Need to park about 1,000,000 for 7-8 months

Post by DJN » Thu Mar 07, 2019 12:17 am

Hi,
I’m not convinced that general remarks about timing the market as a negative are taking into account the scenario posed. The OP has set out a set timeline to summer to transfer and spend a reasonably large sum of money, and this is in the context of a political event which is fixed in time by legislation (whatever about extensions). Therefore the timing is already set, and ignoring the background which is known seems like a missed opportunity if simple measures can be taken to ameliorate the exchange risk.
DJN
Last edited by DJN on Thu Mar 07, 2019 12:38 am, edited 2 times in total.
Yah shure

sf_tech_saver
Posts: 214
Joined: Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:03 pm

Re: Need to park about 1,000,000 for 7-8 months

Post by sf_tech_saver » Thu Mar 07, 2019 12:18 am

I parked $1.2M in Vanguard Short-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Admiral Shares (VWSUX) while I was shopping for a house and was very happy with it. Obviously depends on your tax rate, but to get ~1.7% tax free was ideal for me.
VTI is a modern marvel

smectym
Posts: 575
Joined: Thu May 26, 2011 5:07 pm

Re: Need to park about 1,000,000 for 7-8 months

Post by smectym » Thu Mar 07, 2019 3:20 am

Vanguard Prime is a first-rate, well-run and very safe money market fund. However, if safety is the watchword, I suggest that the investor turn himself around to the role of an advisor. A well-informed advisor, in my view, would urge Vanguard Treasury as “even safer” than Prime, because Treasury isn’t subject to the “mandatory” gates and fees which would be applicable to Prime in the event of a hypothetical crisis.

Go with VUSXX. That call is “best practice,” unless the investor is amenable to direct purchase of treasury securities.

Smectym

ivk5
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Re: Need to park about 1,000,000 for 7-8 months

Post by ivk5 » Thu Mar 07, 2019 5:13 am

sf_tech_saver wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 12:18 am
I parked $1.2M in Vanguard Short-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Admiral Shares (VWSUX) while I was shopping for a house and was very happy with it. Obviously depends on your tax rate, but to get ~1.7% tax free was ideal for me.
smectym wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 3:20 am
Vanguard Prime is a first-rate, well-run and very safe money market fund. However, if safety is the watchword, I suggest that the investor turn himself around to the role of an advisor. A well-informed advisor, in my view, would urge Vanguard Treasury as “even safer” than Prime, because Treasury isn’t subject to the “mandatory” gates and fees which would be applicable to Prime in the event of a hypothetical crisis.

Go with VUSXX. That call is “best practice,” unless the investor is amenable to direct purchase of treasury securities.

Smectym
I don't think these comments address the core issue for the OP, which is that the funds are needed for a large upcoming expense in a different country/currency.

typical.investor
Posts: 1225
Joined: Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:17 am

Re: Need to park about 1,000,000 for 7-8 months

Post by typical.investor » Thu Mar 07, 2019 7:13 am

inbox788 wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:29 pm
petulant wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:04 pm
There might also be transaction costs or tax considerations affecting time. Therefore, there might be good reasons for OP to keep some exposure to USD to reduce risk, since any risk might be that GBP decreases while he's holding it, and UK real estate may also decrease in an unfavorable Brexit environment.
It's not my money, but I agree with with the opinion skewing towards both those risks (as stated before viewtopic.php?f=1&t=274780#p4419408 ). I also agree it is market timing. Still, most likely, the market has already accounted for most of the effects (not a hard Brexit, again opinion which may be wrong), so a softer landing should not significantly change the outcome of the home purchase. In fact, if things go as we think, a stronger dollar plus a weaker real estate market in UK will mean double bonus. These nearly $1M flats could potentially be 10 or 20% less! Risk goes both ways, so it could cost 20% more, but my bet is towards the low side. Still, I wouldn't take all the chances, and would at least split the risk in half now and half later, so a net effect of a 20% move would only affect my outcome by 10%, good or bad.
2 bed flat for sale
London Square, 423 425 Caledonian Road, Islington N7
£730,000 [~$962,000]
Average estimated value for a flat in N7:
£494,107
Price decrease -£31,135 (-5.928%) Over the last 12 months
https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/50493313
HAMPSTEAD MANOR
London, England, United Kingdom
$985,108
AMERICAN DOLLAR
£747,500
BRITISH POUND
1
BEDROOMS
1
FULL BATHROOMS
https://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/sale ... /london-en
And if the GBP rises 10% or so from confirmation that a no-deal Brexit has been ruled out:

London Square, 423 425 Caledonian Road, Islington N7
£730,000 [~$1,054,982]

London, England, United Kingdom
$1,080,272
AMERICAN DOLLAR
£747,500
BRITISH POUND

And if the GBP drops:

London Square, 423 425 Caledonian Road, Islington N7
£730,000

London, England, United Kingdom
£747,500
BRITISH POUND

GrowthSeeker
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Re: Need to park about 1,000,000 for 7-8 months

Post by GrowthSeeker » Thu Mar 07, 2019 7:38 am

FWIW, here is a link to a 5 year chart of GBP/USD. Since no one knows what the exchange rate will be in 8 months, one might say play it down the middle and put half into GBP and keep half in USD.

A game theory approach might be to assess the relative pain/pleasure of a loss/profit made by "speculating" and keeping the money is dollars. The pain of the dollar going down (maybe not being able to buy the house you want) is most likely greater than the pleasure of the dollar going up. So if that ratio is 4:1 then put 80% into GBP and keep 20% in USD, 4:1.

Another thought: after the move across the pond, the OP will be having ongoing expenses in British pounds; perhaps that will be met by ongoing income in pounds. If not, there might be a series dollars-to-pounds exchanges over the next months or years.
Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're NOT out to get you.

Topic Author
Punish2324
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Re: Need to park about 1,000,000 for 7-8 months

Post by Punish2324 » Thu Mar 07, 2019 9:19 pm

aspiringboglehead wrote:
Tue Mar 05, 2019 5:46 pm
ivk5 wrote:
Tue Mar 05, 2019 2:09 pm
I would not speculate on forex rates with your house fund.

As soon as you know these funds are intended to fund a near term GBP liability, they should be in GBP cash or cash equivalent.
I agree. At the very least, I would reduce some of the currency risk by parking some of the money in UK Treasury bills, even though the rates are lower.
How can I purchase UK Treasury bills while I am still in the US? I do not have a bank account there since I do not have a resident address there. Are there ways?

Topic Author
Punish2324
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Re: Need to park about 1,000,000 for 7-8 months

Post by Punish2324 » Thu Mar 07, 2019 9:24 pm

GrowthSeeker wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 7:38 am
FWIW, here is a link to a 5 year chart of GBP/USD. Since no one knows what the exchange rate will be in 8 months, one might say play it down the middle and put half into GBP and keep half in USD.

A game theory approach might be to assess the relative pain/pleasure of a loss/profit made by "speculating" and keeping the money is dollars. The pain of the dollar going down (maybe not being able to buy the house you want) is most likely greater than the pleasure of the dollar going up. So if that ratio is 4:1 then put 80% into GBP and keep 20% in USD, 4:1.

Another thought: after the move across the pond, the OP will be having ongoing expenses in British pounds; perhaps that will be met by ongoing income in pounds. If not, there might be a series dollars-to-pounds exchanges over the next months or years.
After the move to UK, I will be receiving income (alimony) in USD. Any suggestions on the best way to continue bi-weekly exchanges over a couple of years.

Topic Author
Punish2324
Posts: 7
Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2019 1:39 am

Re: Need to park about 1,000,000 for 7-8 months

Post by Punish2324 » Thu Mar 07, 2019 9:40 pm

typical.investor wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:57 pm
inbox788 wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 2:38 pm

I think at this time, it's a passive choice to stay in USD, not active. At some point, an active step must be taken to align the plan with reality. It's not clear if OP is ahead or behind or just right on top of the matter. I'm still trying to figure what this "trigger" event/decision would be.

And whether you call it market timing or not, Brexit is an event that is coming soon and will have consequences. It might be a binary event, or it might get dragged out into a longer process (than it already is), but a known uncertainty event milestone is ahead that will increase volatility. If the risk of job offer being cancelled may be higher with a hard brexit, should that ignored?
If plans might change, that’s a good point. A very good point.
The "trigger" event/decision has already occurred. The move to the UK is inevitable since my legal status in US will terminate. The timeline is also fixed to August 2019 (start of school year). Buying the flat/house in UK may happen in a few months after the move (between September - December 2019). Will be a full-time student there.

aspiringboglehead
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Re: Need to park about 1,000,000 for 7-8 months

Post by aspiringboglehead » Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:52 pm

Punish2324 wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 9:19 pm
How can I purchase UK Treasury bills while I am still in the US? I do not have a bank account there since I do not have a resident address there. Are there ways?
You'll probably need to open an account there based on your upcoming residency. HSBC was often said to be useful for this in the past, but I haven't followed it. It may be easier to set up a normal bank account there; you can probably do better with savings or "bank bond" account than with UK Treasury bills at the moment. Expat accounts in the Isle of Man are another option and are not as shady as they sound, but they may be harder to open from the US than they used to be because of new regulations.

Another alternative, if you want to hedge away the currency risk, is to keep the money in dollars but use a futures instrument (GBP/USD as a traded currency pair) to hedge your risk. This is of course more complicated, and you'll want to understand it well before doing it to make sure you are understanding the costs and risks involved. But I believe you can trade currency pairs at E*Trade and other US brokers fairly readily, or by using a specific trading service like fxTrade.

For periodic transfers, as others have mentioned, TransferWise is a good option. Where you can make credit-card purchases in the UK, using a US card (as a way to effectively make a "transfer" of dollars to pounds) is a surprisingly inexpensive option (often beating TransferWise, particularly for small amounts) as long as your US credit card doesn't charge a special fee for foreign transactions. Withdrawing UK pounds in a British ATM (which are usually fee-free) with a US ATM card is also a surprisingly cheap way to achieve a currency transfer of small amounts, as long (again) as your bank doesn't charge special fees. (Most do.)

AlohaJoe
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Re: Need to park about 1,000,000 for 7-8 months

Post by AlohaJoe » Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:02 am

Punish2324 wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 9:19 pm
aspiringboglehead wrote:
Tue Mar 05, 2019 5:46 pm
ivk5 wrote:
Tue Mar 05, 2019 2:09 pm
I would not speculate on forex rates with your house fund.

As soon as you know these funds are intended to fund a near term GBP liability, they should be in GBP cash or cash equivalent.
I agree. At the very least, I would reduce some of the currency risk by parking some of the money in UK Treasury bills, even though the rates are lower.
How can I purchase UK Treasury bills while I am still in the US? I do not have a bank account there since I do not have a resident address there. Are there ways?
You do not need a bank account. You just need a broker that supports it. Schwab and Fidelity do. Probably many others as well. You just need to call their bond desk.

You can maybe also just use the DMO, the UK equivalent of Treasury Direct. But I don't know much about it, just that it exists.

typical.investor
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Re: Need to park about 1,000,000 for 7-8 months

Post by typical.investor » Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:07 am

AlohaJoe wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:02 am
Punish2324 wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 9:19 pm
aspiringboglehead wrote:
Tue Mar 05, 2019 5:46 pm
ivk5 wrote:
Tue Mar 05, 2019 2:09 pm
I would not speculate on forex rates with your house fund.

As soon as you know these funds are intended to fund a near term GBP liability, they should be in GBP cash or cash equivalent.
I agree. At the very least, I would reduce some of the currency risk by parking some of the money in UK Treasury bills, even though the rates are lower.
How can I purchase UK Treasury bills while I am still in the US? I do not have a bank account there since I do not have a resident address there. Are there ways?
You do not need a bank account. You just need a broker that supports it. Schwab and Fidelity do. Probably many others as well. You just need to call their bond desk.

You can maybe also just use the DMO, the UK equivalent of Treasury Direct. But I don't know much about it, just that it exists.
Schwab has an a global account for this. It gives US residents access to foreign markets.
£9/trade

https://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/in ... al_trading

moneywise3
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Re: Need to park about 1,000,000 for 7-8 months

Post by moneywise3 » Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:40 am

Check your PM, my address is in there

aspiringboglehead
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Re: Need to park about 1,000,000 for 7-8 months

Post by aspiringboglehead » Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:47 am

typical.investor wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:07 am
Schwab has an a global account for this. It gives US residents access to foreign markets.
£9/trade
Potentially expensive currency-conversion fees, though, no? For someone who's going to be a resident, I still think it's worth exploring UK accounts instead.

typical.investor
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Re: Need to park about 1,000,000 for 7-8 months

Post by typical.investor » Fri Mar 08, 2019 1:13 am

aspiringboglehead wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:47 am
typical.investor wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:07 am
Schwab has an a global account for this. It gives US residents access to foreign markets.
£9/trade
Potentially expensive currency-conversion fees, though, no? For someone who's going to be a resident, I still think it's worth exploring UK accounts instead.
Well for $500k to GBP it’s 0.3% at both Schwab and TransferWise.

For $1M, Schwab is a little cheaper at 0.2% vs 0.28%.

But yeah, if a UK account is possible and cheaper, then yeah sure. Don’t they charge 1%+ though? I don’t know UK banks.

IHateCasinos
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Re: Need to park about 1,000,000 for 7-8 months

Post by IHateCasinos » Fri Mar 08, 2019 4:46 am

Yes, the OP could keep the money in USD (via treasuries /MM etc as suggested) but then OP must buy the forward cover, immediately once the house is contracted for. Thats your trigger.

The fwd contract price is the exact difference between what you will earn in interest in the different countries. thats how it is calculated with a few pointsfor their margin.
This will cover you in the case of major unforseen events (obv brexit /nobrexit/half brexit/whatever kind), for the small fees. Use a non-us wealth manager like Pictet/UBS. this is commonplace for them. They are themselves the counterparty, so they just charge the interest rate differential plus their profit. Both currencies are in house funds to them. They (amazingly) arent looking to get rich off forex contracts, its basically seen as a client service to larger (ie $1m) clients.
Dont use Interactive Brokers - its a profit center for them.

Personally i would buy the fwd cover once the decision is made /effectively irreversable.

Having said that, Rent first, dont buy first.
As someone who did this did this "buying house in foreign country" thing already.... many good advices were given to me but this one was THE best: Rent first, dont buy first. (But thats a different topic altogether.)

PM me if you need more info.
M

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PurpleArc
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Re: Need to park about 1,000,000 for 7-8 months

Post by PurpleArc » Fri Mar 08, 2019 5:36 am

retiringwhen wrote:
Tue Mar 05, 2019 7:13 am
The answer is usually VUSXX (Vanguard US Treasury Money Market) as it is the lowest cost US Treasury Fund out there and the safest thing short of buying your own T-bills is a Treasury MM.

Getting FDIC insurance for that amount would require splitting up the funds in three banks and it is unlikely to get a significant rate boost even with teaser CDs with that short of a duration, plus you sound like the when is a bit vague, MM is more liquid...

I argue FDIC insurance is no more safety than T-bills, they are both backed by the US Treasury.

Not sure of the tax situation, but is exempt from state taxes in the USA, not sure for ex-pats though.
I'm new in this, but VUSXX doesn't really give much return at all, putting US dollar in banks get a 2% interest return, so why put in VUSXX where you are getting the returns in the image below

Image

retiringwhen
Posts: 1379
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2017 10:09 am
Location: New Jersey, USA

Re: Need to park about 1,000,000 for 7-8 months

Post by retiringwhen » Fri Mar 08, 2019 5:50 am

PurpleArc wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 5:36 am
retiringwhen wrote:
Tue Mar 05, 2019 7:13 am
The answer is usually VUSXX (Vanguard US Treasury Money Market) as it is the lowest cost US Treasury Fund out there and the safest thing short of buying your own T-bills is a Treasury MM.

Getting FDIC insurance for that amount would require splitting up the funds in three banks and it is unlikely to get a significant rate boost even with teaser CDs with that short of a duration, plus you sound like the when is a bit vague, MM is more liquid...

I argue FDIC insurance is no more safety than T-bills, they are both backed by the US Treasury.

Not sure of the tax situation, but is exempt from state taxes in the USA, not sure for ex-pats though.
I'm new in this, but VUSXX doesn't really give much return at all, putting US dollar in banks get a 2% interest return, so why put in VUSXX where you are getting the returns in the image below

Image
.41% plus a state tax exemption for the interest is pretty darn good for me in other words it is well over 50bp. Why wouldn't I? VUSXX is backed by the same thing FDIC insurance is backed by, the full faith and credit of the US Treasury, but without all the hassle of waiting for the FDIC to make you good when our bank fails. FDIC is no insurance over a Treasury Money Market. In the end they have the same risk, US Debt default.

Unless you are interested in buying Longer-term CDs (now you have term risk) or are a income individual where Muni's make sense (now you have state gov't default risk), I don't think there is a better risk-adjusted return than VUSXX.

saver007
Posts: 127
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2014 9:18 pm

Re: Need to park about 1,000,000 for 7-8 months

Post by saver007 » Fri Mar 08, 2019 8:25 am

I say open an interactive brokers account. ib account can handle investments/cash in 20+ currencies and is known for very good forex conversion rates. It will make your cross broder transactions much more seamless and cheap if you value that.

Invest cash in ultra short duration (term) ETF such as SHV (iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF) or ICSH (iShares Ultra Short-Term Bond ETF ) that you can buy from any brokers where principal is pretty stable and yield is north of 2%.

As others mentioned, buying treasury bills directly or investing in money market mutual funds like vanguard prime money market fund or treasury MM funds are good and slightly safer options too as well as distributing cash to multiple high yield FDIC insured accounts. IB has a FDIC sweep program where up to 2 million or so can be distributed across multiple bank accounts and it pays IB's standard interest rate(1.9). It's a good option if you value FDIC insurance but pays slightly less interest than you managing it yourself across multiple bank accounts.

GrowthSeeker
Posts: 679
Joined: Tue May 15, 2018 10:14 pm

Re: Need to park about 1,000,000 for 7-8 months

Post by GrowthSeeker » Fri Mar 08, 2019 8:36 am

Punish2324 wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 9:40 pm
<snip>
The "trigger" event/decision has already occurred. The move to the UK is inevitable since my legal status in US will terminate. The timeline is also fixed to August 2019 (start of school year). Buying the flat/house in UK may happen in a few months after the move (between September - December 2019). Will be a full-time student there.
IHateCasinos wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 4:46 am
<snip>
Having said that, Rent first, don't buy first.
As someone who did this did this "buying house in foreign country" thing already.... many good advices were given to me but this one was THE best: Rent first, don't buy first. (But that's a different topic altogether.)
<snip>
Actually, this may be the best advice of all on this thread so far. I'm not sure what the OP's citizenship is, or how many years he will be in school in the UK, or for that matter how long in the UK. But why the necessity to buy a house especially while still a student? Rhetorical questions, no need to answer. Just food for thought.

Many US credit cards, example Capital One, do not charge fees when the card is used in non-US countries.
Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're NOT out to get you.

ericcohen
Posts: 75
Joined: Wed Dec 26, 2018 9:34 pm

Re: Need to park about 1,000,000 for 7-8 months

Post by ericcohen » Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:09 pm

cowbman wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 7:55 pm
ericcohen wrote:
Tue Mar 05, 2019 7:23 pm
Buy money market FMPXX and earn ~ $2000 a month in interest per million. MM is more liquid than treasury. No transaction costs and no bid-ask spread to cover.

https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutua ... /316175207

:sharebeer
This is no better than offerings from Vanguard or even online savings accounts/CD's. With a sum of 1 MM, I'd probably just buy Treasuries directly. 6 month treasuries are offering 2.53% and 1 years are 2.54% plus no state/local income taxes. US Treasury is as safe as you get to boot.
I think 2.5% yield is better than many Vanguard offerings and online savings accounts. It is certainly more liquid than CDs or Treasuries. Tax advantage for treasuries to be sure.

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