[Deleted]
Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
I don't know what this means.
Is there a question in there somewhere?
Is there a question in there somewhere?
Last edited by munemaker on Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
I shall ignore the 110-year-old anecdote about alleged successes of unidentified "old veterans of Wall street" unless you can convince me that those venerable gents were investing in emerging markets index funds in 1908.
Last edited by nisiprius on Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
Now Hear This: Load torpedo bay "EM"; Commence Market Timing at will.
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Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
Well, apparently Henry Clews was a British citizen who was investing in the US by the 1850s. I think the US was an emerging market back then, especially from a British perspective
He seems to have a been a bond trader, making him even more exotic: someone who invested in emerging markets government bonds that were denominated in the local currency!
Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
All Real Bogleheads ™ look to grap0013, praise be his username, for all of our emerging markets market timing predictions: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=182107
Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
So based on this post, am I supposed to buy up Turkish stocks like crazy?
The post mentioned nothing about Emerging Markets except in the title. Emerging Markets are what I call "Tiger in the Tank" investments, a high octane additive to give your investments more oomph. But these are risky and volatile investments, not like the Blue Chip stocks that old Wall Streeters load up on in times of crisis.
The post mentioned nothing about Emerging Markets except in the title. Emerging Markets are what I call "Tiger in the Tank" investments, a high octane additive to give your investments more oomph. But these are risky and volatile investments, not like the Blue Chip stocks that old Wall Streeters load up on in times of crisis.
A fool and his money are good for business.
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Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
+1AlohaJoe wrote: ↑Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:07 am All Real Bogleheads ™ look to grap0013, praise be his username, for all of our emerging markets market timing predictions: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=182107
I bought 25 VWO this morning.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."
Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
I "went big" with 97 VWO split between two accounts (76 and 21) and 14 VSS. It was just a tiny bit more than necessary to get me back to my baseline. The 21 finished maxing out my wife's Roth for the year (with the odd cents going into VEMAX).triceratop wrote: ↑Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:55 am+1AlohaJoe wrote: ↑Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:07 am All Real Bogleheads ™ look to grap0013, praise be his username, for all of our emerging markets market timing predictions: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=182107
I bought 25 VWO this morning.
I don't have grap0013's foresight, so I will probably rebalance all the way to his calling the next EM bottom.
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Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
All markets were emerging markets until the Securities Act of 1933 in the US got the ball rolling on regulation of markets.
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Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
Largest driver of the EM sell off today:
CNYA and MCHI (Chinese equities) are both down over 4% in USD valuation. Other individual country EM equity indices are down less than aggregate EM indices in USD valuation.
TUR (Turkish equities) is up almost 3% in USD valuation
Edit: EZA (South Africa) is down over 5%.
Also thought this was interesting:
https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/15/techno ... index.html
CNYA and MCHI (Chinese equities) are both down over 4% in USD valuation. Other individual country EM equity indices are down less than aggregate EM indices in USD valuation.
TUR (Turkish equities) is up almost 3% in USD valuation
Edit: EZA (South Africa) is down over 5%.
Also thought this was interesting:
https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/15/techno ... index.html
Last edited by Northern Flicker on Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
I hobbled to my computer, cane in hand, and rebalanced into VEMAX on Monday, just in time for EMs to drop some more. Gotta love 'em.
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Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
The valuations are reaching stupidly low levels again for EM value, but 1, I have large capital gains in them so I’m not going to sell and 2, I’m not going to catch a falling knife needlessly to buy more beyond the current auto 401k purchases
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Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
I was going to say the opposite: no markets were emerging markets before 1981, because the term wasn't coined until then.jalbert wrote: ↑Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:48 amAll markets were emerging markets until the Securities Act of 1933 in the US got the ball rolling on regulation of markets.
But if he was investing in US bonds, that's pretty impressive, because in 1843, when Charles Dickens wrote "A Christmas Carol," US securities were apparently a byword for unsoundness.
"three days after sight of this First of Exchange pay to Mr. Ebenezer Scrooge or his order,” and so forth, would have become a mere United States’ security if there were no days to count by...
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
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Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
Where do you get your (current, I hope, updated daily/weekly) valuation information for EM value? Morningstar has data for funds like FNDE but I don't know how often they update each component of the ratios. Is there index level data?Theoretical wrote: ↑Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:17 pm The valuations are reaching stupidly low levels again for EM value, but 1, I have large capital gains in them so I’m not going to sell and 2, I’m not going to catch a falling knife needlessly to buy more beyond the current auto 401k purchases
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."
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Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
+1
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Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
Fidelity has very good info and it’s up to date, using trailing rather than forward metrics on some.triceratop wrote: ↑Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:30 pmWhere do you get your (current, I hope, updated daily/weekly) valuation information for EM value? Morningstar has data for funds like FNDE but I don't know how often they update each component of the ratios. Is there index level data?Theoretical wrote: ↑Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:17 pm The valuations are reaching stupidly low levels again for EM value, but 1, I have large capital gains in them so I’m not going to sell and 2, I’m not going to catch a falling knife needlessly to buy more beyond the current auto 401k purchases
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Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
Thanks Theoretical.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."
Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
Based upon my experience with the "Nedsaid effect", I am sure they would dive soon after purchase.
Your post reminds me of the old saying that the beatings will continue until morale improves.
A fool and his money are good for business.
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Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
The Economist "The contrarian case for emerging markets"Theoretical wrote: ↑Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:17 pm The valuations are reaching stupidly low levels again for EM value, but 1, I have large capital gains in them so I’m not going to sell and 2, I’m not going to catch a falling knife needlessly to buy more beyond the current auto 401k purchases
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-e ... ng-markets
no guarantees!
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Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
FWIW, I’m at my target of 10% EM, so my post was to say that I’m not putting way more into something going down sharply but neither am i liquidating.Jeff Albertson wrote: ↑Thu Aug 16, 2018 3:19 pmThe Economist "The contrarian case for emerging markets"Theoretical wrote: ↑Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:17 pm The valuations are reaching stupidly low levels again for EM value, but 1, I have large capital gains in them so I’m not going to sell and 2, I’m not going to catch a falling knife needlessly to buy more beyond the current auto 401k purchases
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-e ... ng-markets
no guarantees!
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Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
Happily, I just increased my automated buys (raises) and will execute a buy of more SFENX today (Schwab emerging). It's been down quite a bit all year thus far.
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Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
anecdote: I have yet to read a paper usefully informing my scientific field which has come out of China.hdas wrote: ↑Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:09 pm For ppl that need help with a narrative that the future might be different than present
China Is Overtaking the U.S. in Scientific Research
Caveat: Tally should weight quality of researchThirty years ago in December, the modern exchange of scholars between the U.S. and China began. Since then, Chinese academics have become the most prolific global contributors to publications in physical sciences, engineering and math. Recent attempts by the U.S. to curtail academic collaboration are unlikely to change this trend.
Link: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles ... in-science
I think this data doesn't contain enough signal to make any kind of tactical allocation, even if I were someone who did things like that.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."
Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
Pretty interesting chart. I may actually buy some EM. Probably need to rebalance anyway. But if I have to guess it will get worse before it gets better.Jeff Albertson wrote: ↑Thu Aug 16, 2018 3:19 pmThe Economist "The contrarian case for emerging markets"Theoretical wrote: ↑Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:17 pm The valuations are reaching stupidly low levels again for EM value, but 1, I have large capital gains in them so I’m not going to sell and 2, I’m not going to catch a falling knife needlessly to buy more beyond the current auto 401k purchases
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-e ... ng-markets
no guarantees!
Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
Looks like they still have plenty of room to plummet.
Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
wow, really shows that for whatever reason markets participants' expectations are crashing through the basement floor with respect to emerging markets. i think those expectations are going to improve over the next few years.
good luck.
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Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
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Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
No doubt that hidden debt is a risk for China and we don't know accurately the full extent of the problem.
Having said that it's important to recall that the greatest global debt default crisis since the Great Depression originated right under our blind eyes in the USA with the massive financial collapse of 2007-9. At no time in human history and in no country in the world prior to that were massive mortgages issued to homebuyers without any evidence whatsoever of asset base or income. All it took was a signature to gain access to hundreds of thousands of dollars. The banks that issued these toxic loans then quickly bundled them and sold them to others, both the US government and the financial industry. They were able to market them easily this because the US rating agencies for a juicy fee declared that a bundle of these sub-prime absurd loans was in fact a reliable high grade financial instrument. Then Wall Street saw an opportunity and created massive new derivative products based on the future performance of these underlying assets, hundreds of billions of dollars bet on this for of course more juicy fees. Of course it collapsed completely, but not one high executive in this long chain of profitable lies and misrepresentations went to jail. The result threatened the complete collapse of the worldwide financial system. And yet before it happened the entire US financial media, essentially all investment gurus, and the academic investment community--none of them noticed that anything was wrong. Instead they were typically awash with optimism.
We should keep in mind that China isn't the only place in the world where dodgy financial things are done by those in positions of authority both in government and in the private sector.
Garland Whizzer
Having said that it's important to recall that the greatest global debt default crisis since the Great Depression originated right under our blind eyes in the USA with the massive financial collapse of 2007-9. At no time in human history and in no country in the world prior to that were massive mortgages issued to homebuyers without any evidence whatsoever of asset base or income. All it took was a signature to gain access to hundreds of thousands of dollars. The banks that issued these toxic loans then quickly bundled them and sold them to others, both the US government and the financial industry. They were able to market them easily this because the US rating agencies for a juicy fee declared that a bundle of these sub-prime absurd loans was in fact a reliable high grade financial instrument. Then Wall Street saw an opportunity and created massive new derivative products based on the future performance of these underlying assets, hundreds of billions of dollars bet on this for of course more juicy fees. Of course it collapsed completely, but not one high executive in this long chain of profitable lies and misrepresentations went to jail. The result threatened the complete collapse of the worldwide financial system. And yet before it happened the entire US financial media, essentially all investment gurus, and the academic investment community--none of them noticed that anything was wrong. Instead they were typically awash with optimism.
We should keep in mind that China isn't the only place in the world where dodgy financial things are done by those in positions of authority both in government and in the private sector.
Garland Whizzer
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Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
The CDO and the CDS had been around for a long time. The US mortgage system is founded on the Mortgage Backed Security which dates from the 1940s.garlandwhizzer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 18, 2018 2:17 pm No doubt that hidden debt is a risk for China and we don't know accurately the full extent of the problem.
Having said that it's important to recall that the greatest global debt default crisis since the Great Depression originated right under our blind eyes in the USA with the massive financial collapse of 2007-9. At no time in human history and in no country in the world prior to that were massive mortgages issued to homebuyers without any evidence whatsoever of asset base or income. All it took was a signature to gain access to hundreds of thousands of dollars. The banks that issued these toxic loans then quickly bundled them and sold them to others, both the US government and the financial industry. They were able to market them easily this because the US rating agencies for a juicy fee declared that a bundle of these sub-prime absurd loans was in fact a reliable high grade financial instrument. Then Wall Street saw an opportunity and created massive new derivative products based on the future performance of these underlying assets, hundreds of billions of dollars bet on this for of course more juicy fees. Of course it collapsed completely, but not one high executive in this long chain of profitable lies and misrepresentations went to jail. The result threatened the complete collapse of the worldwide financial system. And yet before it happened the entire US financial media, essentially all investment gurus, and the academic investment community--none of them noticed that anything was wrong. Instead they were typically awash with optimism.
Michael Lewis takes you through the history in The Big Short. There were a couple of innovations in the 2000s that supercharged it. One was a Chinese actuary at a Canadian university (Waterloo) who came up with an application of the Gaussian Copula - the joint probability of default of 2 mortgages. That allowed the Credit Rating Agencies to rate the things.
Actually a number of people were sounding the alarm. Dean Baker at the Economic Policy Institute in particular. Meredith Whitney. There were others. Paul Krugman was talking about the housing bubble (but he points to Dean Baker as the earliest economic commentator to write about it).
And there was Calculated Risk. Both Bill McBride who runs the blog, and the late Tanta who worked in mortgage securitization before she became ill.
Oh yes.We should keep in mind that China isn't the only place in the world where dodgy financial things are done by those in positions of authority both in government and in the private sector.
Garland Whizzer
I would recommend Daryl Cunningham's graphic book on the Crash
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/14197 ... bl_vppi_i3
which is a very interesting deep dive into the history of the underpinnings of the Alan Greenspan's ideology and deregulation.
Also John Quiggin "Zombie Economics"
https://www.amazon.com/Zombie-Economics ... fkmrnull_1
Anne Petifor (she's a very good speaker if you get a chance or find a podcast)
https://www.amazon.com/Coming-First-Wor ... ref=sr_1_2
also called the crisis before it happened - that book is dated 2006.
Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
I have market weight in EM.
Are my canes out or in?
Are my canes out or in?
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Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
Does that include Gordon Gekko?
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
Gordon would buy on corona virus news
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Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
After reading a number of posts on the forum I was wondering at what point I wanted to join Mr. Gekko in that move. So far the answer is not yet.
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Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
Blue Star Airlines is more attractive!
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Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
Wasn't the U.S. an "emerging market" in 1908?
Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
Newly developed, I would say.
It would have recently graduated into the developed index, like South Korea in our time.
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