It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

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livesoft
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by livesoft » Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:31 pm

^Well then, please join us in the "dividends are terrible (sic)" thread for some more excitement.
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Artsdoctor
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by Artsdoctor » Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:31 pm

^ You are such a trouble maker.

And knowing how meticulous you are with your English syntax, you must be laughing hysterically that people are debating that the "December drop is over": of course it is, since we're in January . . .

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livesoft
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by livesoft » Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:40 am

It is almost the end of January. Does this thread need an update?

Think about what just happened in December. Think about the furloughed workers and all the news since the beginning of December. Hindsight is 20/20.

Do you have any foresight now?
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k66
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by k66 » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:11 am

Does it need an update? I'm not sure, but I'll throw in some lyrics...

Oh, what a dip
Late December, back on the Eve
What a very special time for me
As I remember what a dip

Oh, what a trade
Put my bonus cash into the "Sale"
Let me tell you brother; it's a tale
What a bargain, what a trade
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David Jay
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by David Jay » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:26 am

Tomorrow the January recovery will end...
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by staythecourse » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:34 am

My answer is the same as it is for nearly every thread similar to this one... WHO CARES??

Why does anyone care what happens in your portfolio unless you need the money tomorrow. Then, of course, you would be 100% cash so there still would be no issues. If you asset allocation takes into your account for a long time horizon be fair to it and ONLY judge its performance during that time horizon. I'm 100% equity do you think 1 month is sufficient time horizon to make judgements? IF you are 60/40 I would expect at least a time horizon for 6-8 years or so, so again 1 month returns just don't matter. Be fair and evaluate returns or losses on the time horizon that was taken into account when you decided on the asset allocation in the first place.

Good luck.
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3funder
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by 3funder » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:37 am

I noticed, but I didn't really care.

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by White Coat Investor » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:56 am

Too short to do all the tax loss harvesting I wanted between the 61 day dividend rule and the 30 day wash sale rule. That said, I've now got enough assets that it's just nice to see the market recover because that recovery was worth a lot of money to me.
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by flyingaway » Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:08 am

livesoft wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:40 am
It is almost the end of January. Does this thread need an update?

Think about what just happened in December. Think about the furloughed workers and all the news since the beginning of December. Hindsight is 20/20.

Do you have any foresight now?
I know I will get paid and automatically buy more index funds tomorrow. But I will let it ride.

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livesoft
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by livesoft » Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:13 am

David Jay wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:26 am
Tomorrow the January recovery will end...
Very amusingly prescient.
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by barnaclebob » Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:15 am

January is shaping up to the best month ever for my net worth from a $ perspective, second best from a %. Net worth is up 4.7% so far this month with no abnormal contributions. I'll be at a new all time high barring anything crazy today or tomorrow.

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by minimalistmarc » Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:41 am

White Coat Investor wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:56 am
Too short to do all the tax loss harvesting I wanted between the 61 day dividend rule and the 30 day wash sale rule. That said, I've now got enough assets that it's just nice to see the market recover because that recovery was worth a lot of money to me.

I know what you mean. I’m still accumulating but have a large amount (almost enough) invested and when the market drops I want it to go down more/stay down while I continue to buy cheaper but when it recovers I see my net worth jumping by more than my take home pay

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livesoft
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by livesoft » Thu Jan 31, 2019 8:09 am

livesoft wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:13 am
David Jay wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:26 am
Tomorrow the January recovery will end...
Very amusingly prescient.
Excellent call! :)
From https://www.reuters.com/article/us-glob ... SKCN1PP02U (my bolding):
LONDON (Reuters) - Soothing sounds from the Federal Reserve propelled world stocks to their best January on record on Thursday, although having scored stellar gains this time last year only to flop spectacularly, traders were trying not to get too carried away.
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by z3r0c00l » Thu Jan 31, 2019 8:12 am

I regret not rebalancing an extra $4,000 one week when bonds were way up. $4K x 6% = $240 :shock:

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by tadamsmar » Thu Jan 31, 2019 8:36 am

livesoft wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:32 pm
The December "worst drop" has turned out to be a simple dip for a 60/40 portfolio.

The Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund with its 60/40 asset allocation has a 1-month total return of pretty close to 0.0% (it is -0.10%).

That is, if you were thinking of rebalancing, you don't have to. And if you were thinking of buying low, then it is too late. And if you were waiting for the correction before you bought, then you missed out again.

Image

Yes, I know this is about the past and it does not predict the future.
You are asking if we noticed a thing that we could not notice except in the rear-view mirror.

From my perspective, you still seem to have some confusion when it comes to sorting out what is in the past and what is in the future.

It was a market correction, by the way, defined as a 10% drop from the peak.

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livesoft
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by livesoft » Thu Jan 31, 2019 8:53 am

tadamsmar wrote:
Thu Jan 31, 2019 8:36 am
You are asking if we noticed a thing that we could not notice except in the rear-view mirror.

From my perspective, you still seem to have some confusion when it comes to sorting out what is in the past and what is in the future.

It was a market correction, by the way, defined as a 10% drop from the peak.
Every single dollar that I had in a bond fund from December 1 to December 24 missed the correction. In reality there was no hindsight needed for that observation. Every single dollar in a bond fund that I exchanged into an equity fund on 12/24 missed the correction through 12/24. There was no hindsight needed for that statement as well.

Much like the following picture, our biases send us astray. There were lots of discussions about the dip in December, but many fewer on the upswing since 12/24. Where I saw a beautiful young dip, others saw a drop projected to get older and uglier. Thus, from many investor's perspective they are making predictions about the future all the time.


Image
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midareff
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by midareff » Thu Jan 31, 2019 8:59 am

What? December is over? Pure heresy. ... . and what drop? Lack of market timing is a hallmark of my ever less watchful eye.

azanon
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by azanon » Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:19 am

There's not necessarily any relationship between eventual outcome, and whether or not an initial decision is wise. So the danger of a post like this, is that the implication that a recovery occurred is supposed to somehow support the position that either staying the course during the drop, or buying on this dip, was a wise thing, when in fact that conclusion cannot be drawn at all.

My portfolio does well some years, and not well on others. But it's performance from year to year, and especially month to month is no indication at all whether or not my chosen portfolio is a wise one.

Now if you just want to say the dip turned out not being such a big deal after-all, then that general statement is true. But beyond that, I'd hold off on any addition conclusions or observations.

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by livesoft » Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:21 am

azanon wrote:
Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:19 am
There's not necessarily any relationship between eventual outcome, and whether or not an initial decision is wise. So the danger of a post like this, is that the implication that a recovery occurred is supposed to somehow support the position that either staying the course during the drop, or buying on this dip, was a wise thing, when in fact that conclusion cannot be drawn at all.
If many of us felt like there would never be an eventual recovery, then this forum would not exist at all. The entire point of investing is that somehow, sometime, in the future our portfolios will have a higher value. And also the probability is very very high for that outcome.
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by samsdad » Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:22 am

livesoft wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:40 am
Do you have any foresight now?
Yes. I’ve been meditating a lot lately and may have reached satori. Thanks for starting me on this path to enlightenment.

Here’s what I saw at the moment of unity:

Something is going to happen to the market in February to make it move.

I can’t describe the feeling of pure bliss that came over me at the moment of this realization.
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by tadamsmar » Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:24 am

livesoft wrote:
Thu Jan 31, 2019 8:53 am
tadamsmar wrote:
Thu Jan 31, 2019 8:36 am
You are asking if we noticed a thing that we could not notice except in the rear-view mirror.

From my perspective, you still seem to have some confusion when it comes to sorting out what is in the past and what is in the future.

It was a market correction, by the way, defined as a 10% drop from the peak.
...Where I saw a beautiful young dip, others saw a drop projected to get older and uglier. Thus, from many investor's perspective they are making predictions about the future all the time...
But you predicted that a downturn was a dip. Not sure why that is not obvious to you. You did not see a dip, you predicted a dip.

You are not even aware when you have made a prediction. You made that prediction 2 months ago and you still don't know it!
Last edited by tadamsmar on Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:30 am, edited 1 time in total.

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livesoft
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by livesoft » Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:28 am

tadamsmar wrote:
Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:24 am
But you predicted that a downturn was a dip. Not sure why that is not obvious to you.
I did not post anything in December about any predictions.

I think everyone predicts that their portfolio will have a higher value in the future. I certainly do. :)
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by tadamsmar » Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:35 am

livesoft wrote:
Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:28 am
tadamsmar wrote:
Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:24 am
But you predicted that a downturn was a dip. Not sure why that is not obvious to you.
I did not post anything in December about any predictions.

I think everyone predicts that their portfolio will have a higher value in the future. I certainly do. :)
But you said you saw a dip. That is a prediction. Back in December, you said. "Self, I see a dip" but there was no dip to be seen, this was a prediction. You don't have to post predictions to make predictions.

I did not see a dip in December, I did see a bear market in December, I had no delusions that I could see the future, all I saw was the past. This is what not making a prediction looks like.

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by livesoft » Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:38 am

OK, I made a prediction. You apparently made a prediction as well.
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by DartThrower » Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:40 am

I started considering semi-retirement in the summer of 2018. The stock market dip in the fall tipped the scales in favor of staying at work. Besides, my employer pays me really well and they are having a hard time finding a replacement in this strong economy. So it's off to work I go (in 5 degree weather :shock: ) for a little while longer. There are pluses and minuses to my job so I'm ok with it.

The point is that yes, I noticed the dip.

The needle on my retirement gauge is pointing directly at "enough".
A Boglehead can stay the course longer than the market can stay irrational.

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by tadamsmar » Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:44 am

livesoft wrote:
Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:38 am
OK, I made a prediction. You apparently made a prediction as well.
What prediction did I make?

All I saw was the past and the past only revealed a downturn in the past. The past revealed a so-called "correction" but "correction" is just an inappropriate interpretive term that everybody but me cluelessly uses.

I think I am the only clear thinking being in the Universe, (but I have a open-mind concerning this).

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by samsdad » Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:52 am

tadamsmar wrote:
Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:44 am
livesoft wrote:
Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:38 am
OK, I made a prediction. You apparently made a prediction as well.
I think I am the only clear thinking being in the Universe, (but I have a open-mind concerning this).
I just reached satori if you’d only look upthread.

I’m forming my hedge fund now. Be one of the first to get in on it.

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by David Jay » Thu Jan 31, 2019 4:05 pm

livesoft wrote:
Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:28 am
I think everyone predicts that their portfolio will have a higher value in the future.
My spreadsheet suggests that I will never have more money in my portfolio than right now. I am facing 6-8 years of living exclusively from our portfolio, cutting the value by about a third. Then a spending level that is sustainable but growing the balance ever-so-slowly.
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future - Niels Bohr | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by tmcc » Thu Jan 31, 2019 4:51 pm

on dec 24, I TLH'd equities that were down and increased my equity exposure by 33% from cash

it was a good day for market timing

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by balbrec2 » Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:51 pm

Diversify, reinvest, rebalance, repeat! Never mind what the markets are doing.
Your AA and IPS should take care of you. just sayin!

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by Independent George » Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:34 pm

It is entirely possible that the market will tank again this year and take us into bear territory - and if it doesn't happen this year, it is a certainty that it will eventually happen sometime later. I will do the exact same thing regardless: work, save, invest, and rebalance.

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by livesoft » Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:45 pm

balbrec2 wrote:
Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:51 pm
Diversify, reinvest, rebalance, repeat! Never mind what the markets are doing.
Your AA and IPS should take care of you. just sayin!
Did you rebalance on or about 12/24/2018? Why or why not?
I agree that one's AA and IPS should take care of one.
Independent George wrote:
Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:34 pm
It is entirely possible that the market will tank again this year and take us into bear territory - and if it doesn't happen this year, it is a certainty that it will eventually happen sometime later. I will do the exact same thing regardless: work, save, invest, and rebalance.
Did you rebalance on or about 12/24/2018? Why or why not?
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by Tetramolta » Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:47 pm

Was it a dip? Maybe it was just foreshadowing for the Great February Crash of 2019.

I honestly wonder how much of these late year sell-offs are fueled by tax loss harvesting. It's the first thing that comes to mind for me when I see the market tank, especially nearing the end of the year.

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by Independent George » Thu Jan 31, 2019 11:22 pm

livesoft wrote:
Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:45 pm
Did you rebalance on or about 12/24/2018? Why or why not?
I did not. I was travelling and only make transactions from my home computer; by the time I was back, it had all blown over. I'm not sure if I would have re-balanced even if I were at home, though, and I have no regrets that I didn't.

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by tadamsmar » Fri Feb 01, 2019 9:49 am

There was no dip. There was a downturn that started in early October. The market will need to recover before you can call it a dip.

Do think every little uptick during a downturn should be called a "dip"?

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by barnaclebob » Fri Feb 01, 2019 10:05 am

tadamsmar wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 9:49 am
There was no dip. There was a downturn that started in early October. The market will need to recover before you can call it a dip.

Do think every little uptick during a downturn should be called a "dip"?
I dont know about you but my portfolio has recovered. Its at an all time high as of COB yesterday.

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by AnalogKid22 » Fri Feb 01, 2019 10:07 am

I always front-load my entire Roth contribution at the very start of the new year. Including my regular DCA contributions since "the dip", it has been most welcome and has worked in my favor, so far...

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by goingup » Fri Feb 01, 2019 10:15 am

Accumulators who had been lamenting about "all-time market highs" and continued to sit frozen on the sidelines with windfall cash through the month of December missed a fine opportunity to at least begin a DCA scheme. It doesn't have to be an all or nothing proposition but invest we must.

Young investors could at least take away the observation that market drops can be swift and ugly. Rebounds can also be swift. It's just one data point and the next drop could have a different outcome.

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by carol-brennan » Fri Feb 01, 2019 10:20 am

It's not over until it's over, and it's never over. ;)

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by livesoft » Fri Feb 01, 2019 10:22 am

tadamsmar wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 9:49 am
Do think every little uptick during a downturn should be called a "dip"?
Definitely, yes, but only if the drop is followed by said little uptick. Otherwise, it is still a drop.
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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by deltaneutral83 » Fri Feb 01, 2019 10:25 am

20% drops from highs are in fact rare, just as permanent bull markets don't happen. A lot of people think both happen frequently. It's actually pretty boring "most" of the time. I start noticing around 15-20% in drops just because I find that to be newsworthy. Corrections under 15% are 100% noise, always have been and always will be.

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by MotoTrojan » Fri Feb 01, 2019 10:35 am

Tetramolta wrote:
Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:47 pm
Was it a dip? Maybe it was just foreshadowing for the Great February Crash of 2019.

I honestly wonder how much of these late year sell-offs are fueled by tax loss harvesting. It's the first thing that comes to mind for me when I see the market tank, especially nearing the end of the year.
That has always confused me. Do many people not re-buy similar assets after selling their losses? Shouldn’t that be a net-zero impact on the market?

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by tadamsmar » Fri Feb 01, 2019 10:38 am

There are only three possibilities:

1. We are at a peak.
2. We are in a dip.
3. We are in the death throes of capitalism.

Voting dip and just buying is a good policy unless you plan to consume your stocks short term, perhaps with some fava beans and a nice chianti.

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by AnalogKid22 » Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:03 am

And not to forget that those who contribute to their employee stock purchase plans (ESPP), particularly if your plan buys a percentage off the low for the period, should also benefit from "the dip". My company stock dropped 27% on 12/21, has recovered 23%, and steadily climbing, since, so 15% off the low next month is another welcome bonus!

OK, OK, could the stock drop +30% next month? Of course, it can...

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:59 pm

tadamsmar wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 10:38 am
3. We are in the death throes of capitalism.
Or the death of capitalism in the US of A. Be afraid, be very afraid.

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by bpp » Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:22 pm

livesoft wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:40 am
It is almost the end of January. Does this thread need an update?
This just in: December is still over.

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Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Post by NotWhoYouThink » Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:53 pm

I rebalanced the first week of January as always, because that's when my deferred compensation payment comes. A portion of my deferred account is liquidated, taxed, and paid to me. So I bought funds in my taxable account to get back to my preferred AA.

Last year I did the same thing, and then the marked dropped so I did some tax loss harvesting.

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