U.S. stocks in free fall

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gwe67
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by gwe67 » Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:31 pm

10,000!
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TdF fan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TdF fan » Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:35 pm

Beat me to it! :annoyed

MisterMister
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MisterMister » Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:09 am

H-Town wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 5:52 pm
kaeltor wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 5:09 pm
With the way the market is behaving and earnings projections looking dim, is it justifiable to even max out a roth IRA ?
What happened to being greedy when others are afraid?
The answer lies in another question:

Is Warren Buffett adding to his Apple position now?

Crisium
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Crisium » Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:13 am

At first I thought that 9,999 was a prediction for the Dow by years ends.

10,000 posts of pure, unadulterated optimism from this thread.

bgf
Posts: 807
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bgf » Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:28 am

MisterMister wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:09 am
H-Town wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 5:52 pm
kaeltor wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 5:09 pm
With the way the market is behaving and earnings projections looking dim, is it justifiable to even max out a roth IRA ?
What happened to being greedy when others are afraid?
The answer lies in another question:

Is Warren Buffett adding to his Apple position now?
he is very likely buying back berkshire shares, as the price is well below his previous buyback number of ~$200.

id be surprised if Buffett is selling Apple.
“TE OCCIDERE POSSUNT SED TE EDERE NON POSSUNT NEFAS EST"

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:51 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:50 pm
Hiwatter wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:43 pm
Anyone else doing a Roth IRA Contribution today on Total Stock Market?
At 9:33 AM EDT today. All stock; All in. :|
I'm good at this; I'm up VOO .87%, VXUS 1.0% in one day. :greedy

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:34 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:51 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:50 pm
Hiwatter wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:43 pm
Anyone else doing a Roth IRA Contribution today on Total Stock Market?
At 9:33 AM EDT today. All stock; All in. :|
I'm good at this; I'm up VOO .87%, VXUS 1.0% in one day. :greedy
Wild market moves. I haven’t been following it for many years but these back to back nearly 3% moves in opposing directions are getting pretty common.

lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog » Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:41 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:34 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:51 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:50 pm
Hiwatter wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:43 pm
Anyone else doing a Roth IRA Contribution today on Total Stock Market?
At 9:33 AM EDT today. All stock; All in. :|
I'm good at this; I'm up VOO .87%, VXUS 1.0% in one day. :greedy
Wild market moves. I haven’t been following it for many years but these back to back nearly 3% moves in opposing directions are getting pretty common.
Could it possibly be because of ETF popularity?
100% VTWAX

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:48 am

lostdog wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:41 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:34 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:51 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:50 pm
Hiwatter wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:43 pm
Anyone else doing a Roth IRA Contribution today on Total Stock Market?
At 9:33 AM EDT today. All stock; All in. :|
I'm good at this; I'm up VOO .87%, VXUS 1.0% in one day. :greedy
Wild market moves. I haven’t been following it for many years but these back to back nearly 3% moves in opposing directions are getting pretty common.
Could it possibly be because of ETF popularity?
ETFs don't hold the actual stock so unless the ETF has to buy or sell stock trading ETF should have no effect on stock prices. Hedge funds hold the actual stock sometimes using borrowed money and high speed robots to do the trading.

robertmcd
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by robertmcd » Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:53 am

100% due to dovish Fed speak. 2 weeks ago balance sheet runoff was on autopilot and they forecasted 2 more hikes in 2019. Now they just said they can change policy and halt QT at any time if it threatens the "economy".

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01- ... green-2019

The Fed put is alive and well.

uberme
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by uberme » Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:59 am

Huge December hiring - don’t see why the Fed wouldn’t continue raising rates?

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/04/nonfarm ... -2018.html

“Nonfarm payrolls surged by 312,000 in December. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting payroll growth of just 176,000.
Wages jumped 3.2 percent from a year ago and 0.4 percent over the previous month. The year-over-year increase is tied with October for the best since April 2009.
The unemployment rate rose to 3.9 percent as more workers joined the labor force.”
Last edited by uberme on Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:00 am, edited 1 time in total.

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:00 am

robertmcd wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:53 am
100% due to dovish Fed speak. 2 weeks ago balance sheet runoff was on autopilot and they forecasted 2 more hikes in 2019. Now they just said they can change policy and halt QT at any time if it threatens the "economy".

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01- ... green-2019

The Fed put is alive and well.
100% seems extreme after getting a massive blowout jobs report too. Both contributors I am sure.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:03 am

uberme wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:59 am
Huge December hiring - don’t see why the Fed wouldn’t continue raising rates?
I can. :twisted:

lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog » Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:10 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:48 am
lostdog wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:41 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:34 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:51 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:50 pm
At 9:33 AM EDT today. All stock; All in. :|
I'm good at this; I'm up VOO .87%, VXUS 1.0% in one day. :greedy
Wild market moves. I haven’t been following it for many years but these back to back nearly 3% moves in opposing directions are getting pretty common.
Could it possibly be because of ETF popularity?
ETFs don't hold the actual stock so unless the ETF has to buy or sell stock trading ETF should have no effect on stock prices. Hedge funds hold the actual stock sometimes using borrowed money and high speed robots to do the trading.
So mainly large hedge funds and institutions?
100% VTWAX

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:22 am

lostdog wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:10 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:48 am
lostdog wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:41 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:34 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:51 am
I'm good at this; I'm up VOO .87%, VXUS 1.0% in one day. :greedy
Wild market moves. I haven’t been following it for many years but these back to back nearly 3% moves in opposing directions are getting pretty common.
Could it possibly be because of ETF popularity?
ETFs don't hold the actual stock so unless the ETF has to buy or sell stock trading ETF should have no effect on stock prices. Hedge funds hold the actual stock sometimes using borrowed money and high speed robots to do the trading.
So mainly large hedge funds and institutions?

99.9% of ETF are no good for day trading because the index is too large. There are a few ETF that are designed for day trader/gamblers; they are excluded from Vanguard's fee free ETF trading.
Vanguard Group begins an investing experiment that pushes free ETF trading to its limit

robertmcd
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by robertmcd » Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:23 am

uberme wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:59 am
Huge December hiring - don’t see why the Fed wouldn’t continue raising rates?

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/04/nonfarm ... -2018.html

“Nonfarm payrolls surged by 312,000 in December. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting payroll growth of just 176,000.
Wages jumped 3.2 percent from a year ago and 0.4 percent over the previous month. The year-over-year increase is tied with October for the best since April 2009.
The unemployment rate rose to 3.9 percent as more workers joined the labor force.”
Good news for economy used to be bad news for the market in this hiking cycle. That changed today and we had the combination of a dovish Fed and a good jobs report sending stocks soaring. The Fed's 4th mandate just appeared clear as day. I thought for a while that Powell was actually a strap on your boots and do what is necessary Fed chair, but Ben Bernanke was probably right when he said we will never normalize our balance sheet again.

DrGoogle2017
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by DrGoogle2017 » Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:26 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:51 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:50 pm
Hiwatter wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:43 pm
Anyone else doing a Roth IRA Contribution today on Total Stock Market?
At 9:33 AM EDT today. All stock; All in. :|
I'm good at this; I'm up VOO .87%, VXUS 1.0% in one day. :greedy
Haha, that’s what I thought last year too. Wait until you see at year end.

MisterMister
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MisterMister » Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:34 am

DrGoogle2017 wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:26 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:51 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:50 pm
Hiwatter wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:43 pm
Anyone else doing a Roth IRA Contribution today on Total Stock Market?
At 9:33 AM EDT today. All stock; All in. :|
I'm good at this; I'm up VOO .87%, VXUS 1.0% in one day. :greedy
Haha, that’s what I thought last year too. Wait until you see at year end.
May be time for JGB's phrase to get its long overdue TM symbol

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:01 pm

Who bailed on stocks tax loss harvesting in 2018 and hasn't bought back in as of yet? :confused

lazydavid
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lazydavid » Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:04 pm

TropikThunder wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 6:09 pm
Does Schwab not have a button called "exchange"?
They don't, but they have a trading function called "sell and buy another" that I think accomplishes the same thing.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:08 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:01 pm
Who bailed on stocks tax loss harvesting in 2018 and hasn't bought back in as of yet? :confused
What's your point, S&P 500 is currently 2,535.37 (and rising)
but
Dec 18th close was 2,546.16,
Dec. 3rd close was 2,790.37
we have a long way to go to get back to the beginning of December. :oops:
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:12 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:08 pm

we have a long way to go to get back to the beginning of December. :oops:
Is that when you TLH? When are you getting back in?

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:20 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:12 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:08 pm

we have a long way to go to get back to the beginning of December. :oops:
Is that when you TLH? When are you getting back in?
As I have previously posted I started selling last February significantly reducing my equity exposure as part of my risk management. I increased my equities by roughly 5% (5% more equities not 5% of total portfolio) on Christmas Eve and have continued to make buys as directed by my model since including yesterday.

To me if you hold index funds (as opposed to individual stocks) and sell using tax considerations without rebuying you are simply selling, changing your AA or rebalancing using the most tax efficient shares. You are not TLH to me.
Last edited by TheTimeLord on Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

morsk
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by morsk » Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:26 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 7:21 pm
morsk wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 7:14 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 6:33 pm

Including the Nov., 2018, data, it is 3.92. November's UER was 3.7. Historically, this has been a strong indicator that we are not currently in a recession.
Can you please provide the link to where you pull the 12MMA unemployment rate from? Many thanks.
I calculate with Excel using the data from the BLS website. You can also download the data in Excel format from their site.
So, I'm just wondering where your head is at currently, because, while I'm not a frequent poster, I do enjoy your posts :happy

a) the 7MMA for stocks is way down -- S&P500 7MMA at 2,742 vs S&P500 currently sitting at 2,533
b) the unemployment data today puts the unemployment rate exactly equal to its 12MMA -- 3.9%

The first condition has easily been met and your second condition is now on the cusp. What do you think?

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:31 pm

morsk wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:26 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 7:21 pm
morsk wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 7:14 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 6:33 pm

Including the Nov., 2018, data, it is 3.92. November's UER was 3.7. Historically, this has been a strong indicator that we are not currently in a recession.
Can you please provide the link to where you pull the 12MMA unemployment rate from? Many thanks.
I calculate with Excel using the data from the BLS website. You can also download the data in Excel format from their site.
So, I'm just wondering where your head is at currently, because, while I'm not a frequent poster, I do enjoy your posts :happy
Thanks.
morsk wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:26 pm
a) the 7MMA for stocks is way down -- S&P500 7MMA at 2,742 vs S&P500 currently sitting at 2,533
b) the unemployment data today puts the unemployment rate exactly equal to its 12MMA -- 3.9%

The first condition has easily been met and your second condition is now on the cusp. What do you think?
I'll follow my system to the letter. When the unemployment rate crosses above its 12 MMA and stocks are below their 7 MMA, I'll move out. Until then, I'm standing pat. And as soon as either of those conditions is no longer met (i.e. UER falls below its 12 MMA or stocks move above their 7 MMA), I'll move back into stocks.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:32 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:20 pm
As I have previously posted I started selling last February ...
My question was to people who sold all stock, at one time, to take tax loss, and haven't gotten back in. Maybe they have mutual funds and haven't pulled the trigger to get back in.

I was out for two minutes this year and last when I harvested losses.
J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:15 am
At 9:30 AM EST I sold all my VTI to harvest huge losses; at 9:32 AM I bought VOO, that buy is up 1.19%.
Different year, same market.

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changingtimes
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by changingtimes » Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:38 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:01 pm
Who bailed on stocks tax loss harvesting in 2018 and hasn't bought back in as of yet? :confused
I TLH'ed from VTSAX to VFIAX in mid-December, and yesterday TLH'ed from VFIAX to VLCAX to book at $4k short-term loss to start the year.

So that timing--especially looking at today--makes me very happy, other than maybe I'm not so thrilled to be in VLCAX. But I will watch for an opportunity to get back to VTSAX after the 30 days are up.

Crisium
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Crisium » Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:43 pm

lazydavid wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:04 pm
TropikThunder wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 6:09 pm
Does Schwab not have a button called "exchange"?
They don't, but they have a trading function called "sell and buy another" that I think accomplishes the same thing.
I have used that a couple times and it has made me go cash for a day each time. However, I didn't use Schwab funds so maybe they do it for in house funds.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:47 pm

changingtimes wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:38 pm
So that timing--especially looking at today--makes me very happy, other than maybe I'm not so thrilled to be in VLCAX. But I will watch for an opportunity to get back to VTSAX after the 30 days are up.
Wash sales are tricky. I use VTI and VOO buy sell. They are different enough to avoid a wash sale. I try to keep it as simple as possible. I don't trade but once a year so when I do it is huge. One of the reasons I switched to ETFs was so I wouldn't have to be out of the market for a day.

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whodidntante
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by whodidntante » Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:10 pm

Stocks are falling up today.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:15 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:32 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:20 pm
As I have previously posted I started selling last February ...
My question was to people who sold all stock, at one time, to take tax loss, and haven't gotten back in. Maybe they have mutual funds and haven't pulled the trigger to get back in.

I was out for two minutes this year and last when I harvested losses.
J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:15 am
At 9:30 AM EST I sold all my VTI to harvest huge losses; at 9:32 AM I bought VOO, that buy is up 1.19%.
Different year, same market.
In the context of Index Funds selling and not getting back in is not TLH, its is selling using the most tax efficient shares. the idea behind TLH is you sell you shares to incur a tax benefit while not meaningfully changing your position. If you sell and don't get back in immediately you have meaningfully changed your position. It can be different with individual stocks because it may be difficult to find a good pair for say Apple but that should not be an issue with index funds. All that said, we are still only back to December 18th levels for the S&P so just 3 weeks ago.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

csmath
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by csmath » Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:24 pm

whodidntante wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:10 pm
Stocks are falling up today.
I'm not convinced, I think it is more likely a double S curve inversion into a golden hammerhead shark candlestick pattern. I'm pretty sure we are headed for new valleys in losses. I'm just not sure if they will be for shorts or longs.

Sorry... I just watched the chat for a few minutes on a live S&P500 chart and was very entertained by the speculation. EMT looks funny at that level.

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Earl Lemongrab
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:21 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:47 pm
Wash sales are tricky. I use VTI and VOO buy sell. They are different enough to avoid a wash sale.
You mean that in your opinion they are different enough. The IRS has issued no guidelines as to which funds are or are not substantially identical.
This week's fortune cookie: "Your financial life will be secure and beneficial." So I got that going for me, which is nice.

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Earl Lemongrab
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:24 pm

csmath wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:24 pm
I'm not convinced, I think it is more likely a double S curve inversion into a golden hammerhead shark candlestick pattern. I'm pretty sure we are headed for new valleys in losses. I'm just not sure if they will be for shorts or longs.
It's a Schrödinger's half-dead/half alive cat bounce.
This week's fortune cookie: "Your financial life will be secure and beneficial." So I got that going for me, which is nice.

manuvns
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by manuvns » Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:27 pm

Just in nick of time :

Citi Says ‘Buy This Dip’ and Sees Equities Returning 14% in 2019
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... 14-in-2019

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:29 pm

manuvns wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:27 pm
Just in nick of time :

Citi Says ‘Buy This Dip’ and Sees Equities Returning 14% in 2019
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... 14-in-2019
In line with prior 2018 expected levels; “The lost year”.

retiringwhen
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by retiringwhen » Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:36 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:29 pm
manuvns wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:27 pm
Just in nick of time :

Citi Says ‘Buy This Dip’ and Sees Equities Returning 14% in 2019
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... 14-in-2019
In line with prior 2018 expected levels; “The lost year”.
For the Bogleheads contest, I picked the same prediction for 12/31/19 as i did for 12/31/18 -> 2764.24 only 233 to go (8.5%)

H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town » Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:04 pm

manuvns wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:27 pm
Just in nick of time :

Citi Says ‘Buy This Dip’ and Sees Equities Returning 14% in 2019
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... 14-in-2019
It results in "panic buying" as they say. Fear of Losing Out starts creeping in for some folks.

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Riley15
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Riley15 » Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:20 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:31 pm
morsk wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:26 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 7:21 pm
morsk wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 7:14 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 6:33 pm

Including the Nov., 2018, data, it is 3.92. November's UER was 3.7. Historically, this has been a strong indicator that we are not currently in a recession.
Can you please provide the link to where you pull the 12MMA unemployment rate from? Many thanks.
I calculate with Excel using the data from the BLS website. You can also download the data in Excel format from their site.
So, I'm just wondering where your head is at currently, because, while I'm not a frequent poster, I do enjoy your posts :happy
Thanks.
morsk wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:26 pm
a) the 7MMA for stocks is way down -- S&P500 7MMA at 2,742 vs S&P500 currently sitting at 2,533
b) the unemployment data today puts the unemployment rate exactly equal to its 12MMA -- 3.9%

The first condition has easily been met and your second condition is now on the cusp. What do you think?
I'll follow my system to the letter. When the unemployment rate crosses above its 12 MMA and stocks are below their 7 MMA, I'll move out. Until then, I'm standing pat. And as soon as either of those conditions is no longer met (i.e. UER falls below its 12 MMA or stocks move above their 7 MMA), I'll move back into stocks.
How do you interpret this unemployment rate? Seems like higher unemployment corresponding with higher labor participation is good news.

"While the jobless rate rose last month, CNBC notes, it "rose for the right reason as 419,000 new workers entered the workforce and the labor force participation rate increased to 63.1 percent." Rising by 0.2% over November, the participation level ended the year at 0.4% higher than last year."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-t ... 2019-01-04

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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by JoMoney » Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:27 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:29 pm
manuvns wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:27 pm
Just in nick of time :

Citi Says ‘Buy This Dip’ and Sees Equities Returning 14% in 2019
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... 14-in-2019
In line with prior 2018 expected levels; “The lost year”.
If I can DCA in throughout 2019 at sub-2018's high price, while the broader economy remains positive, it will be a good year by my account :beer
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:29 pm

JoMoney wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:27 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:29 pm
manuvns wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:27 pm
Just in nick of time :

Citi Says ‘Buy This Dip’ and Sees Equities Returning 14% in 2019
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... 14-in-2019
In line with prior 2018 expected levels; “The lost year”.
If I can DCA in throughout 2019 at sub-2018's high price, while the broader economy remains positive, it will be a good year by my account :beer
I’m with you. I get excited on big down days now.

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:30 pm

Buy-and-hold, stay the course, etc takes a lot of fun out of this volatility. It is more fun to ride the roller coaster than it is to stand on the ground and watch it.

Of course, you do save the nuisance of purchasing all of those pesky tickets :beer

csmath
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by csmath » Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:30 pm

Riley15 wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:20 pm

How do you interpret this unemployment rate? Seems like higher unemployment corresponding with higher labor participation is good news.

"While the jobless rate rose last month, CNBC notes, it "rose for the right reason as 419,000 new workers entered the workforce and the labor force participation rate increased to 63.1 percent." Rising by 0.2% over November, the participation level ended the year at 0.4% higher than last year."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-t ... 2019-01-04
Personally I think the "unemployment rate" and "DOW" are similar in that they attract far too much attention by the media and are too small a sample to fill the roll they are constantly used for. I have always thought a broader market index was better for market movement and that "participation rate" is a better representation of how many people are working (that should be working).

Edit: To address your question of how do I interpret the rate? I think participation rate up 0.2% at the expense of a rise in unemployment is good. A falling unemployment rate coupled with a falling participation rate makes me believe people are giving up on trying.

Scooter57
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Scooter57 » Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:21 pm

All we've learned is that just about any news can move the stock market up or down 3.something percent.

Monday a bad report about something else could take it back down as much as it just went up. What I look at is the bigger picture. The big downs that almost recover followed by another and another, so that over three months the downs are edging lower each month as happened in 2000 on is what I'm thinking could still be in the cards.

Though as a saver I am resigned to crappy interest rates for the rest of my life. The Fed's real mandate seems to have turned into permanent rate suppression.
Last edited by Scooter57 on Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:35 pm

Riley15 wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:20 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:31 pm
morsk wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:26 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 7:21 pm
morsk wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 7:14 pm


Can you please provide the link to where you pull the 12MMA unemployment rate from? Many thanks.
I calculate with Excel using the data from the BLS website. You can also download the data in Excel format from their site.
So, I'm just wondering where your head is at currently, because, while I'm not a frequent poster, I do enjoy your posts :happy
Thanks.
morsk wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:26 pm
a) the 7MMA for stocks is way down -- S&P500 7MMA at 2,742 vs S&P500 currently sitting at 2,533
b) the unemployment data today puts the unemployment rate exactly equal to its 12MMA -- 3.9%

The first condition has easily been met and your second condition is now on the cusp. What do you think?
I'll follow my system to the letter. When the unemployment rate crosses above its 12 MMA and stocks are below their 7 MMA, I'll move out. Until then, I'm standing pat. And as soon as either of those conditions is no longer met (i.e. UER falls below its 12 MMA or stocks move above their 7 MMA), I'll move back into stocks.
How do you interpret this unemployment rate? Seems like higher unemployment corresponding with higher labor participation is good news.

"While the jobless rate rose last month, CNBC notes, it "rose for the right reason as 419,000 new workers entered the workforce and the labor force participation rate increased to 63.1 percent." Rising by 0.2% over November, the participation level ended the year at 0.4% higher than last year."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-t ... 2019-01-04
For the purposes of following my strategy, I do not try to interpret. I merely follow.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

WanderingDoc
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by WanderingDoc » Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:16 pm

LiterallyIronic wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:56 pm
WanderingDoc wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:25 pm
LiterallyIronic wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:35 pm
WanderingDoc wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 12:02 pm
To each their own. It's the only asset that I found which produces monthly income in my bank account that I legally don't have to pay tax on. To get the same effect from paper investing, I would have to work for 20 to 30 years more. I just met for several video chat sessions with a financial advisor, and he told me I was set to retire anytime I wanted based on my real estate income, and he was very conservative. I only started investing in real estate in 2013 and the results speak for themselves. I have nothing against the stock market but I don't want to limit my options in life for decades. I want an asset which I can control and produces actual income, not 1.8% dividend. By the way, if you have a property manager or invest passively in syndications you never have to worry about repairs or rental contracts. Someone else does that all that for you.
That's great and all, and it sounds excellent (assuming you can turn a profit after paying the property management company to handle everything). But I don't think I could stomach having a mortgage on a rental property. I've only had a mortgage for 14 months on my primary residence and I didn't realize that I would hate it with such a passion. I'm constantly thinking, "I owe somebody $142,000." I can't imagine the stress I'd be under if I also had a mortgage on a second property (even if that property came with positive monthly cashflow).

With my retirement accounts, I can look at them and think, "Look at all the money I have!" but with rental properties, I'm sure I'd look at them and think, "Look at all the money I owe!"
I feel the same way as you, which is why I exclusively rent where I live. You'd feel differently if your tenants paid your mortgages for you. To date, I have not made a single mortgage payment, repair, or lost rent (vacancy) payment. This was factored into each deal and my tenants covered all of these :beer
So did you just set aside money for a down payment on your first rental property and then get a mortgage for the rest? And then save up the profits from that property to create a down payment for the second one and so on? I mean, I wouldn't be outright opposed to buying a duplex or something and renting it out, but it feels like I'd have to stop my retirement contributions for a period of time in order to get a down payment together. Or, I guess, I could rent out my current house and move to an apartment myself. But neither of those sound very tantalizing.
Yes, I put down ~10-15% on my first property which I lived in for quite a while. I rented a small space from it, which was easy money and great for taxes. This got me hooked on real estate. I say the vision and my future freedom very clearly. The first property became a rental later on, but not before I purchased the next deal, and so on.

What I bolded above is exactly what I did. You got it. If you are cash flowing, then the excess capital starts to snowball to reinvest into the next deal. So you buy one property, wait about 2 years to save up for the next one, then you only have to wait 10-12 months for the next one, and so on. Then, you are financially free in 4-5 years. I am not even talking about other tricks like doing a cash out refinance if the property appreciates, they you could pull out most of the initial down payment, and leave say $10K of your own money in the deal. Well, if that property cash flows $10K, that is already a 100% return annually, that is not counting return from principal paydown, ongoing appreciation, net tax benefits, and so on. This stuff is fun :) I recommended for those who are motivated to learn the game.
I'm not looking to get rich quick (stocks), I'm not looking to get rich slow (indexing), I'm looking to get rich, for sure (real estate) | Don't wait to buy real estate. Buy real estate.. and wait.

Gufomel
Posts: 267
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Gufomel » Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:04 pm

Sure is quiet in here.

Teague
Posts: 1329
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Teague » Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:16 pm

Gufomel wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:04 pm
Sure is quiet in here.
Now you've gone and jinxed it. Just you watch - the market will start fluctuating any time now. Should have left well enough alone. But no, now it's guaranteed to start going up and down.
Semper Augustus

dacalo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by dacalo » Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:59 pm

Gufomel wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:04 pm
Sure is quiet in here.
2000 dow drop incoming next week.

2Birds1Stone
Posts: 459
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Location: New York

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 2Birds1Stone » Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:24 am

dacalo wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:59 pm
Gufomel wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:04 pm
Sure is quiet in here.
2000 dow drop incoming next week.
<20,000 Dow next week :sharebeer

All kidding aside, it's good to reevaluate ones appetite for risk now, not after the next leg down (whenever that ends up being).

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