2019 Hedge Fund Contest

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FinancialDave
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by FinancialDave » Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:11 am

FinancialDave wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:45 pm
Blue Contrarian Fund

LONG:

JCP
Tanelorn,

Blue Contrarian Fund does not believe in the limited upside to short funds.

Please correct my entry as it looks bad starting out exactly where I finished last year :oops:
I love simulated data. It turns the impossible into the possible!

Tanelorn
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn » Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:17 am

aristotelian wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:16 am
Something is wrong. The stock I picked to short is up 5% and I appear to be in last place. Clearly a spreadsheet malfunction, please fix!
I did not know what you’re talking about - everything is working just fine the way I see it :happy. In a completely unrelated note, Tanelorn Capital is off to the races with first place and a 30% gain for the first day of the contest.

Tanelorn
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn » Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:41 am

FinancialDave wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:11 am
FinancialDave wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:45 pm
Blue Contrarian Fund

LONG:

JCP
Tanelorn,

Blue Contrarian Fund does not believe in the limited upside to short funds.
Oops, fixed (long instead of short JCP). And you’re in 4th place already!

Tanelorn
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn » Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:24 pm

Tanelorn wrote:
Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:10 pm
SHLD was indeed delisted and now trades as SHLDQ... The stock has nearly tripled off its lows in the past week, so those betting either way on Sears stock are likely in for a crazy ride.
Looks like I was right about the craziness for Sears - it went from down 30% this morning to up 30% by the close, doubling off the lows all within a single day! Tanelorn Capital went from the top of the ranks with +30% this morning to, well, we do take a long term view here so we’ll just short and hold.

Current standings - 2019 hedge fund contest

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LadyGeek
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by LadyGeek » Wed Jan 09, 2019 4:51 pm

The wiki has been updated with the 2019 spreadsheet. See: Bogleheads® contests (2019 --> Hedge Fund contest --> current standings)
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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whodidntante
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by whodidntante » Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:32 pm

Power Mouse Capital letter to shareholders:

I feel like I should explain the apparently crazy positions I have taken with your money for 2019. I have shorted one of the most loved, most rip roaring tech growth stocks on the planet, Netflix. What you might have missed is that Netflix is a real house of cards (wakka wakka). They are debt laden, and they are spending huge piles of their investor's cash acquiring content. Their own experiments in producing content have also proven to be a cash shredder, with licensed content getting more viewing time. I guess they did have the highly successful bird movie, but the blindfold Sandra Bullock wore is a metaphor for how blind their leadership has become.

Combine that with the fund's only long position, Disney. Sure, you could point out that Disney stock has traded sideways for five years. What idiot would go long in such a stock? The idiot who has control of your money, that's who. Disney, you see, is launching their own streaming platform later this year. And they already have Hulu, so it's possible they even know what they are doing! We expect Disney to pull content from Netflix, or charge a king's ransom for it. And you can only watch the Netflix bird movie so many times.

But you are not a fancy hedge fund manager, so you really shouldn't worry about all of this. As always, thank you for the fees. I had a nice lobster and cognac for lunch. Was your McDonald's OK? Write soon!

Your truly,
whodidntante

goblue100
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by goblue100 » Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:35 pm

^^ Sounds the Marie Antoinette hedge fund. "Let them eat cake!"
Financial planners are savers. They want us to be 95 percent confident we can finance a 30-year retirement even though there is an 82 percent probability of being dead by then. - Scott Burns

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LadyGeek
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by LadyGeek » Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:16 pm

FYI - The spreadsheet is a complete hedge fund tracking system.

Click on the "Explore" button in the bottom-right corner to find a ton of statistics and pivot tables.

The top of the panel contains "Ask a question about your data", so I did.

"Who is the best fund manager?" was answered by the spreadsheet.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

sorethumb
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by sorethumb » Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:16 pm

Pickle Rick Investments has a spreadsheet error. We are long Alcoa (AA) not Apple as shown. Thanks!

Image

Tanelorn
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn » Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:58 am

sorethumb wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:16 pm
Pickle Rick Investments has a spreadsheet error. We are long Alcoa (AA) not Apple as shown. Thanks!
I’ve got your pickle antidote right here. Fixed (it was an autocomplete glitch - the fund above you in the spreadsheet had AAPL).

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librarianaire
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by librarianaire » Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:49 am

Apologies for not making this more clear in my original post: all three positions in the Social Epistemology Cardigan Fund are Short, not Long. It’s probably better to clear this up now, while I look like an idiot, than later, when it will be demonstrated conclusively.

Thanks for running the contest.
“Our own experience provides the basic material for our imagination, whose range is therefore limited.” Thomas Nagel, What is it like to be a bat?

Tanelorn
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn » Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:48 am

librarianaire wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:49 am
Apologies for not making this more clear in my original post: all three positions in the Social Epistemology Cardigan Fund are Short, not Long. It’s probably better to clear this up now, while I look like an idiot, than later, when it will be demonstrated conclusively.

Thanks for running the contest.
Thanks, fixed.

FinancialDave
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by FinancialDave » Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:04 pm

BackOfTheNet wrote:
Tue Jan 01, 2019 3:22 pm
Again, I meant to get this up earlier, but this is the thread for the 2019 hedge fund contest. You can find the previous year's contest (2018) here:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=236514
  • If a stock is taken out in a merger or a bankruptcy during 2019, we will do our best to do the right thing. An all cash offer will result in a freeze at the takeout price. An all stock offer will result in the conversion of the position to the acquiring company's shares. Mixed cash and stock offers, you'll just have to trust me to saw things off fairly.
Like last year, Tanelorn will be providing fixes and commentary as the year goes on.
Actaully, I have been wondering this for awhile, and one of the reasons the Blue Contrarian Fund does not pick Short bets anymore.

I see what happens when a company goes bankrupt -- so what happens when a Hedge Fund goes bankrupt, how do you accomodate that -- with an IOU?

I don't remember it happening yet, but this year may be the first.
I love simulated data. It turns the impossible into the possible!

Tanelorn
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn » Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:30 pm

FinancialDave wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:04 pm
I see what happens when a company goes bankrupt -- so what happens when a Hedge Fund goes bankrupt, how do you accomodate that -- with an IOU? I don't remember it happening yet, but this year may be the first.
Hedge funds have a feature much like stocks - the most you can lose is all your money. You may think this sounds bad, but consider the traditionally “safer” managed account framework where someone trades with your permission in your brokerage account with limited access. They can’t just take your money and blow it on living it up or fly off to Panama with it the way Madoff or others have done with hedge funds that were really scams. Managed accounts, however, when they use margin as many hedge fund type strategies do, can lose more than 100%, and since it’s your account, you’re on the hook if that happens. Here was an example of an options trading manager who blow up 125% or so of his clients money.

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2018/12/ ... s-debacle/
The advantage of the separately managed accounts is that there is perfect transparency. Every customer of OptionSellers.com has their own brokerage account and they can readily see and monitor their positions. The clients merely authorized Option Sellers to perform trades on their behalf. Of course, the disadvantage of this setup is that clients are now on the hook for their underwater accounts. So, they lost not just their investment but owe more money to cover the additional losses. In a true hedge fund structure you can only lose your principal but as an LLC equity holder or Limited Partner in an LP you owe nothing further.

FinancialDave
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by FinancialDave » Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:24 pm

Ok, fair enough.

No limit on the upside - except for short stocks 100%.

No limit on the downside - except for long stocks 100%.

Only tempered by your ability to "close" down a position at any time, which must be done before market close if you want that days price.


Sound about right?
I love simulated data. It turns the impossible into the possible!

Tanelorn
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn » Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:54 am

Congrats to ladycat, drk, and Dumb Luck for their shorts of the troubled CA utility company, PG&E (PCG). They announced this morning they are filing for bankruptcy in response to the legal liabilities associated with the their possible role in the recent wildfires.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/ ... 005370/en/

None of our savvy fund managers were long, and we hope none of our readers were either.

Mrmetalpole
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Mrmetalpole » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:03 am

Too late to enter?

Long BMY, MTN, CHL, CVGW

Short: TLRY

Tanelorn
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:10 am

Mrmetalpole wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:03 am
Too late to enter?
Yes, deadline was a week ago, sorry.

Tanelorn
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn » Tue Jan 15, 2019 1:09 am

Tanelorn wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:54 am
Congrats to ladycat, drk, and Dumb Luck for their shorts of the troubled CA utility company, PG&E (PCG). They announced this morning they are filing for bankruptcy in response to the legal liabilities associated with the their possible role in the recent wildfires.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/ ... 005370/en/

None of our savvy fund managers were long, and we hope none of our readers were either.
And our leaders are off to a good start, each up over 10% in the first week of the contest on the back of their presciencent short pick PG&E (PCG), who announced an intention to file for bankruptcy in the coming weeks if no legal bailout was forthcoming from California for their wildfire liabilities. The stock is down just over 50% today.

Current standings - 2019 hedge fund contest

Dumb_luck is in first place with a 20% return. Congratulations on your quick and ongoing success! I see this mornings market is even worse for PCG stock, as bailout hopes are fading and default is increasingly likely.

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ReformedSpender
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by ReformedSpender » Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:21 am

whodidntante wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:32 pm
Power Mouse Capital letter to shareholders:

I feel like I should explain the apparently crazy positions I have taken with your money for 2019. I have shorted one of the most loved, most rip roaring tech growth stocks on the planet, Netflix. What you might have missed is that Netflix is a real house of cards (wakka wakka). They are debt laden, and they are spending huge piles of their investor's cash acquiring content. Their own experiments in producing content have also proven to be a cash shredder, with licensed content getting more viewing time. I guess they did have the highly successful bird movie, but the blindfold Sandra Bullock wore is a metaphor for how blind their leadership has become.

Combine that with the fund's only long position, Disney. Sure, you could point out that Disney stock has traded sideways for five years. What idiot would go long in such a stock? The idiot who has control of your money, that's who. Disney, you see, is launching their own streaming platform later this year. And they already have Hulu, so it's possible they even know what they are doing! We expect Disney to pull content from Netflix, or charge a king's ransom for it. And you can only watch the Netflix bird movie so many times.

But you are not a fancy hedge fund manager, so you really shouldn't worry about all of this. As always, thank you for the fees. I had a nice lobster and cognac for lunch. Was your McDonald's OK? Write soon!

Your truly,
whodidntante
:mrgreen: That letter will be hard to top :mrgreen:
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

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SagaciousTraveler
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by SagaciousTraveler » Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:36 am

drk wrote:
Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:59 pm
Health and Foolishness

Long:
* PM
* TAP

Short:
* AMD
* PCG
dumb_luck wrote:
Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:51 pm
Dumb Luck Investment Fund

Long
ALLY
CCL

Short
PCG

We all have two options:

1. Declare drk & dumb_luck the winners. I didn't see anyone else short PCG

2. Continue but have drk & dumb_luck start a real hedge fund and invest.

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ReformedSpender
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by ReformedSpender » Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:59 am

SagaciousTraveler wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:36 am



We all have two options:

1. Declare drk & dumb_luck the winners. I didn't see anyone else short PCG

2. Continue but have drk & dumb_luck start a real hedge fund and invest.
The year is young...

:beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

Tanelorn
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn » Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:04 am

SagaciousTraveler wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:36 am
1. Declare drk & dumb_luck the winners. I didn't see anyone else short PCG
2. Continue but have drk & dumb_luck start a real hedge fund and invest.
Ladycat is also short PCG - she’s in 3rd.

However, I’m definitely not giving up. Just because Tanelorn Capital is down 125% currently(!) on the news that Sears owner Eddie Lampert has won the bankruptcy auction and will keep the firm alive rather than liquidating everything (+40% more today), we still hold little hope out for SHLDQ equity holders. Certainly I’d rather be a PCG shareholder than a Sears one at today’s prices, but given the choice I’d rather be short both. Time will tell, although we will note we are grateful for the lack of margin calls in this contest.

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SagaciousTraveler
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by SagaciousTraveler » Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:08 am

Tanelorn wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:04 am
SagaciousTraveler wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:36 am
1. Declare drk & dumb_luck the winners. I didn't see anyone else short PCG
2. Continue but have drk & dumb_luck start a real hedge fund and invest.
Ladycat is also short PCG - she’s in 3rd.

However, I’m definitely not giving up. Just because Tanelorn Capital is down 125% currently(!) on the news that Sears owner Eddie Lampert has won the bankruptcy auction and will keep the firm alive rather than liquidating everything, we still hold little hope out for SHLDQ equity holders. Certainly I’d rather be a PCG shareholder than a Sears one at today’s prices, but given the choice I’d rather be short both. Time will tell, although we will note we are grateful for the lack of margin calls in this contest.
Sorry Ladycat!

I was trying not to draw attention to the bottom of the barrel! :D

I'll be rooting for your most epic comeback. Also, if you are going to be something in a contest, it should be really good or really bad. Don't be average like me. :sharebeer

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SagaciousTraveler
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by SagaciousTraveler » Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:27 am

Tanelorn wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:04 am
SagaciousTraveler wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:36 am
1. Declare drk & dumb_luck the winners. I didn't see anyone else short PCG
2. Continue but have drk & dumb_luck start a real hedge fund and invest.
Ladycat is also short PCG - she’s in 3rd.

However, I’m definitely not giving up. Just because Tanelorn Capital is down 125% currently(!) on the news that Sears owner Eddie Lampert has won the bankruptcy auction and will keep the firm alive rather than liquidating everything (+40% more today), we still hold little hope out for SHLDQ equity holders. Certainly I’d rather be a PCG shareholder than a Sears one at today’s prices, but given the choice I’d rather be short both. Time will tell, although we will note we are grateful for the lack of margin calls in this contest.
Also...

I checked and you are down over 100%. How does one lose more than 100%? :D

Should we CAP the losses at 100% so you can't go any further? Or should we let it ride and see how negative it can get?

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whodidntante
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by whodidntante » Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:51 pm

Is a loss of over 100% a bust out? Or do we assume unlimited helicopter angel money?

Tanelorn
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn » Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:49 pm

SagaciousTraveler wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:27 am
I checked and you are down over 100%. How does one lose more than 100%? :D
Ask OptionsSellers.com’s clients - they lost 125% recently. The short answer is - margin or short selling.
Should we CAP the losses at 100% so you can't go any further? Or should we let it ride and see how negative it can get?
It has not been a good day to bet against Sears, and Tanelorn Capital is currently down 146%. As for capping losses, I’m not sure why you would want to deprive other contestants from having someone to beat when their stock loses only 100% by capping my losses at a mere 100% :). As a practical matter, there are no provisions things like this in the terms of the contest, which is mostly designed to be fun and easy to administer.

If some losses end up much worse than 100%, well, hopefully that will serve as a cautionary lesson to would be hedge fund investors.
whodidntante wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:51 pm
Is a loss of over 100% a bust out? Or do we assume unlimited helicopter angel money?
I think we just assume a margin clerk who checks his balances along the lines of a buy and hold long term investor - maybe once a year to see if anything needs rebalancing ;).

aristotelian
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by aristotelian » Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:53 pm

whodidntante wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:51 pm
Is a loss of over 100% a bust out? Or do we assume unlimited helicopter angel money?
I want to see how low it can go.

dumb_luck
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by dumb_luck » Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:18 pm

SagaciousTraveler wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:08 am
Tanelorn wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:04 am
SagaciousTraveler wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:36 am
1. Declare drk & dumb_luck the winners. I didn't see anyone else short PCG
2. Continue but have drk & dumb_luck start a real hedge fund and invest.
Ladycat is also short PCG - she’s in 3rd.

However, I’m definitely not giving up. Just because Tanelorn Capital is down 125% currently(!) on the news that Sears owner Eddie Lampert has won the bankruptcy auction and will keep the firm alive rather than liquidating everything, we still hold little hope out for SHLDQ equity holders. Certainly I’d rather be a PCG shareholder than a Sears one at today’s prices, but given the choice I’d rather be short both. Time will tell, although we will note we are grateful for the lack of margin calls in this contest.
Sorry Ladycat!

I was trying not to draw attention to the bottom of the barrel! :D

I'll be rooting for your most epic comeback. Also, if you are going to be something in a contest, it should be really good or really bad. Don't be average like me. :sharebeer
I propose a third option... Have Ladycat and drk close their positions in PCG and spend their windfalls on vacations with Carnival (CCL)! :beer

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ReformedSpender
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by ReformedSpender » Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:23 pm

Short positions in Netflix should see a health bump tomorrow on mixed earnings. $3 billion negative cashflow projected for 2019 even after recently hiking their subscription prices

:beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

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whodidntante
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by whodidntante » Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:33 pm

ReformedSpender wrote:
Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:23 pm
Short positions in Netflix should see a health bump tomorrow on mixed earnings. $3 billion negative cashflow projected for 2019 even after recently hiking their subscription prices

:beer
That's good. I'm tired of Power Mouse Capital shareholders sending me McDonald's wrappers with choice messages.

veggivet
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by veggivet » Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:10 am

Ouch! I'm long Netflix. Some of that pain will be reduced as I'm short Tesla, which will also take a major hit today. As of now, it looks like the hit on Tesla is going to outweigh the hit on Netflix.
If you watch your pennies, your dollars will take care of themselves.

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ReformedSpender
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by ReformedSpender » Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:56 am

Telsa announcing layoff and lowers Q4 guidance. Troubled times continue for this automaker:

- proposed china plant to build (where will Elon find funding?)
- weakening demand
- quality control issues
- Unpaid suppliers and pending lawsuits
- debt coming due and no cash raised with stock near all time highs

and oh yeah, the big one...competition


Disclaimer: Wrecked Capital is very, very, very short Telsa

:beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

bgf
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by bgf » Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:12 am

aristotelian wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:53 pm
whodidntante wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:51 pm
Is a loss of over 100% a bust out? Or do we assume unlimited helicopter angel money?
I want to see how low it can go.
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets ... they_said/

warning, this subreddit is not for the faint of heart; however, this person just incurred a loss in excess of 1800% and has had his account closed.

dat margin tho
“TE OCCIDERE POSSUNT SED TE EDERE NON POSSUNT NEFAS EST"

aristotelian
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by aristotelian » Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:35 am

bgf wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:12 am
aristotelian wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:53 pm
whodidntante wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:51 pm
Is a loss of over 100% a bust out? Or do we assume unlimited helicopter angel money?
I want to see how low it can go.
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets ... they_said/

warning, this subreddit is not for the faint of heart; however, this person just incurred a loss in excess of 1800% and has had his account closed.

dat margin tho
Lol, I don't grasp all the details but that story makes me want to short Robinhood in next year's contest!

bgf
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by bgf » Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:55 am

aristotelian wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:35 am
bgf wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:12 am
aristotelian wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:53 pm
whodidntante wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:51 pm
Is a loss of over 100% a bust out? Or do we assume unlimited helicopter angel money?
I want to see how low it can go.
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets ... they_said/

warning, this subreddit is not for the faint of heart; however, this person just incurred a loss in excess of 1800% and has had his account closed.

dat margin tho
Lol, I don't grasp all the details but that story makes me want to short Robinhood in next year's contest!
from what i can gather, not being an option expert, the kid entered into a box spread with about $5,000 thinking it was a "risk free" trade based on price movement. he thought his total risk was only $500. the risk, however, is in the other party exercising the options. rather than being risk free, he had over a quarter of a million dollars in exposure. robinhood's risk management system apparently didn't pick up on this. when it was discovered somehow, they closed his account but not before he'd lost over $50,000.

robinhood has apparently sent an email out to all its customers that box spreads are no longer allowed and that anyone who currently has one will have the position closed out lol.

he's been contacted by some finance journalists to write an article about it, so you might see it pop up in a news feed somewhere.

below is the original thread.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets ... n_to_stop/
“TE OCCIDERE POSSUNT SED TE EDERE NON POSSUNT NEFAS EST"

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SagaciousTraveler
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by SagaciousTraveler » Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:41 pm

ReformedSpender wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:56 am
Telsa announcing layoff and lowers Q4 guidance. Troubled times continue for this automaker:

- proposed china plant to build (where will Elon find funding?)
- weakening demand
- quality control issues
- Unpaid suppliers and pending lawsuits
- debt coming due and no cash raised with stock near all time highs

and oh yeah, the big one...competition


Disclaimer: Wrecked Capital is very, very, very short Telsa

:beer
I feel really good about that short in our little contest. However I don't feel very good about the 7% of the workforce being laid off.

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SagaciousTraveler
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by SagaciousTraveler » Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:47 pm

bgf wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:55 am
from what i can gather, not being an option expert, the kid entered into a box spread with about $5,000 thinking it was a "risk free" trade based on price movement. he thought his total risk was only $500. the risk, however, is in the other party exercising the options. rather than being risk free, he had over a quarter of a million dollars in exposure. robinhood's risk management system apparently didn't pick up on this. when it was discovered somehow, they closed his account but not before he'd lost over $50,000.

robinhood has apparently sent an email out to all its customers that box spreads are no longer allowed and that anyone who currently has one will have the position closed out lol.

he's been contacted by some finance journalists to write an article about it, so you might see it pop up in a news feed somewhere.

below is the original thread.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets ... n_to_stop/
:oops: :shock:

Think he'll become a Boglehead? Sort of a 'saw the light' kind of thing.

bgf
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by bgf » Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:30 pm

one of my two holdings is up 24% YTD! and that doesn't even look like it gets me on the leader board... reminder to self to short something for 2020.

edit. nevermind just saw the link to the spreadsheet for the first time. i am, in fact, on the leader board.

:moneybag
“TE OCCIDERE POSSUNT SED TE EDERE NON POSSUNT NEFAS EST"

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whodidntante
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by whodidntante » Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:53 pm

There are several companies who can make excellent cars at scale. For now those companies are content to let Tesla lose money serving a niche market. But if electric vehicles ever make economic sense they will have more interest, and then Tesla is going to be crushed by better, cheaper cars from brands that can quickly service your car if it breaks down in Iowa.

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ReformedSpender
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by ReformedSpender » Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:55 pm

Facebook now giving up most of its gains for the day after Washington Post reports that regulators are discussing imposing a record-setting fine against the company for privacy violations. Couple this with the fact that younger users, millennials and advertisers are fleeing Facebook in droves, its frothy valuation is not supportive and further downside should be expected.

Disclaimer: Wrecked Capital is short Facebook

:beer
Last edited by ReformedSpender on Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:01 pm, edited 5 times in total.
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

ladycat
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by ladycat » Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:57 pm

Tanelorn wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:54 am
Congrats to ladycat, drk, and Dumb Luck for their shorts of the troubled CA utility company, PG&E (PCG). They announced this morning they are filing for bankruptcy in response to the legal liabilities associated with the their possible role in the recent wildfires.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/ ... 005370/en/

None of our savvy fund managers were long, and we hope none of our readers were either.
Thanks! Now I just need Chipotle to give a few more people food poisoning and my other short position will be a winner! :wink: Those who shorted Tesla might be in a good position.

Tanelorn
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Tanelorn » Mon Jan 21, 2019 9:41 pm

A quick recap of the contest so far. dumb_luck is off to an impressive start with 27% gains in just two weeks, driven mostly by his single short pick of PG&E (PCG), the troubled California utility that may face bankruptcy due to their wildfire liabilities from last summer. PCG has fallen just over 60% to date. His two long picks of lending firm and bank Ally Finanical (ALLY) and Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) are both doing well with around 9% gains as well. Second and third place are held by drk with his Health and Foolishness fund at 19% and ladycat with her JustForFun fund at 13%. Both of them made the same outstanding short pick of PCG, but their other portfolio holdings have not done quite as well.

Current standings - 2019 hedge fund contest

Honorable mention goes to bgf for the best performing long stock pick with EBIX, a financial software firm whose stock sold off towards the end of last year as they face ongoing accounting issues and changed their accountants. Things seem to be progressing well with the business and addressing these issues, and the stock is up 23%.

Also worth a mention on the short side, Tanelorn as well as 3 other funds picked Sears (SHLDQ) as a short pick. Despite the ongoing bankruptcy, SHLDQ stock soared from the lows around the start of the contest on promising news that they may stay in business rather than face liquidation, and at one point the stock was up over 160% ($0.84 highs vs the $0.32 starting price). Needless to say it’s been a wild ride for Sears shorts, who were up briefly over 30% on the first day of the contest but have been seeing red ever since. The stock has retraced some and the shorts are only down 93% currently.

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SagaciousTraveler
Posts: 271
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by SagaciousTraveler » Tue Jan 22, 2019 11:06 am

The contest within the contest.

I wanted to see what the standings are for people who picked 3 long and 3 short.

Crypto-o-Currencies Fund madpunster 6.83%
HowNowBrownCow SagaciousTraveler 3.77%
Grayson Moorhead Securities Carlos Danger 3.42%
Low Tech Transport Fund motorcycylesarecool 1.11%
Double Barrel Beverage Fund TheDDC 0.86%
Consternatio Partners grok87 0.40%
Borgata Fund abuss368 0.17%
Randomize! Moneta -0.91%
The Black Knight Always Triumphs! Fund nodak -1.38%
Old School Hedge Fund BigJohn -1.69%
Legacy Capital bsdsecprof -1.77%
Petulant Hamster Investments mokaThought -1.98%
Hard to Pick Only 3 WhiteMaxima -2.02%
Pickle Rick Investments sorethumb -2.77%

bgf
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by bgf » Tue Jan 22, 2019 2:22 pm

SagaciousTraveler wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:47 pm
bgf wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:55 am
from what i can gather, not being an option expert, the kid entered into a box spread with about $5,000 thinking it was a "risk free" trade based on price movement. he thought his total risk was only $500. the risk, however, is in the other party exercising the options. rather than being risk free, he had over a quarter of a million dollars in exposure. robinhood's risk management system apparently didn't pick up on this. when it was discovered somehow, they closed his account but not before he'd lost over $50,000.

robinhood has apparently sent an email out to all its customers that box spreads are no longer allowed and that anyone who currently has one will have the position closed out lol.

he's been contacted by some finance journalists to write an article about it, so you might see it pop up in a news feed somewhere.

below is the original thread.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets ... n_to_stop/
:oops: :shock:

Think he'll become a Boglehead? Sort of a 'saw the light' kind of thing.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trade ... 2019-01-22
“TE OCCIDERE POSSUNT SED TE EDERE NON POSSUNT NEFAS EST"

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Carlos Danger
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by Carlos Danger » Tue Jan 22, 2019 4:44 pm

For all those sad, unfortunate fools who failed to invest their money with Grayson Moorhead Securities while the window to do so was still open, fret not. You can rectify your terrible life choices by investing in the brand new, just launched crypto-currency: GMS-Coin. Gold is yesterday's news and also a useless metal with no practical real world application (the man on CNBC said so). If you want to hedge against inflation, you want GMS-Coin. This crypto asset is backed by the Grayson Moorhead Securities hedge fund's coffers. Can you say "STABILITY" ???

In addition, a select few initial investors in GMS-Coin, to be chosen by our board of directors (ME), will be given the opportunity of a life-time to further juice their sure-to-be tremenduous gains. You can become an OFFICIAL Grayson Moorhead Securities SENIOR DISTRIBUTOR of GMS-Coin. That's right, Grayson Moorhead Securities will only be offering an INITIAL round of GMS-Coin. After that, the privileged few selected as senior distributors will have the chance to market and sell GMS-Coin to thirsty investors. What's more, these senior distributors will be allowed to create networks of their own junior distributors, who can in turn market GMS-Coin. Senior distributors will be entitled to a portion of the proceeds from all of their junior distributors. These junior distributors will be allowed to set up their own networks, and so-on and so-forth. The beauty of it all is, unlike other inferior crypto-assets (Bitcoin), there is NO LIMIT to the amount of GMS-Coin that can be created, marketed, and sold to investors!!!

blackcat allie
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by blackcat allie » Wed Jan 23, 2019 1:50 pm

ReformedSpender wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:55 pm
Facebook now giving up most of its gains for the day after Washington Post reports that regulators are discussing imposing a record-setting fine against the company for privacy violations. Couple this with the fact that younger users, millennials and advertisers are fleeing Facebook in droves, its frothy valuation is not supportive and further downside should be expected.

Disclaimer: Wrecked Capital is short Facebook

:beer
With a dissenting perspective, our Random Tulips traders did not include Facebook among short positions. We believe there is a network/addictive effect that will keep monthly active user numbers high. (It's hard for many to quit) Advertisers and company pricing will follow. Facebook, we surmise, is not unlike Tobacco for the Information Age. :beer 👍
Last edited by blackcat allie on Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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alfaspider
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by alfaspider » Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:45 pm

I just checked last year's standings, and was pleasantly surprised that I handily beat the market and placed second among those who picked 3 long and 3 short. My long oil trade blew up in November, but the short department stores seemed to be the winning trade of the year. I suppose it's too late to enter this year's contest, but I might nevertheless repeat long oil- it's doing well so far :mrgreen:

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ResearchMed
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by ResearchMed » Thu Jan 24, 2019 3:27 pm

PG&E just found NOT guilty in CA wildfires...?

If so, that should change the contest results.

RM
This signature is a placebo. You are in the control group.

aristotelian
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Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Post by aristotelian » Thu Jan 24, 2019 3:33 pm

ResearchMed wrote:
Thu Jan 24, 2019 3:27 pm
PG&E just found NOT guilty in CA wildfires...?

If so, that should change the contest results.

RM
For 2017 wildfires. Still bad for the PCG shorts. Meanwhile, INSY keeps going Up in Smoke!

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