www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

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Tyler9000
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Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

Post by Tyler9000 » Mon Sep 17, 2018 3:02 pm

siamond wrote:
Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:01 pm
It is a bit of a shame to have lost the calculators that didn't fit in this unified format though. Why not keep an 'Extra Calculators' page, with pointers to the previous instances of those extra calculators? Everybody loves free extras! :wink:
That's a good point. My main focus was updating the primary Portfolios experience, but I can see the benefits of the other tools as well.

I've added a section in the Resources where you can find links to the handful of calculators that are a little different in scope than the ones now in the My Portfolio tool. At the very least, that will help me track their usage rate compared to the new stuff. So if you like 'em, use 'em. :wink:

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siamond
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Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

Post by siamond » Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:38 pm

Tyler9000 wrote:
Mon Sep 17, 2018 3:02 pm
My main focus was updating the primary Portfolios experience, but I can see the benefits of the other tools as well.
Maybe I am biased by the memories of how it worked, but I find the navigation unintuitive:
- I just couldn't find where the primary tools were (I clicked on portfolios, scrolled down quickly, missed the 'my portfolio' link because it looked like the other ones, then looked elsewhere in increasing confusion - and at least I knew what I was looking for, a newbie would probably miss the boat)
- as to the other tools, nobody will find them if you leave them as buried as they are now

Let me suggest:
a) to elevate the "My Portfolio" link to the upper level bar (Portfolios, My Portfolio, Resources, Commentary)
b) to add a direct link to a "Other Tools" page at the top of the "My Portfolio" page, right under the "About the Calculations" link

My 2 cents...

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Tyler9000
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Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

Post by Tyler9000 » Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:46 pm

No worries! Thanks for the feedback.

My design intuition is that most people will figure it out, but if it doesn't work out or I think of something better I'll always be happy to change again. Let's give it a little time and I'll keep an eye on the usage stats. I like data, after all. :wink:

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siamond
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Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

Post by siamond » Thu Nov 29, 2018 1:07 pm

A cool write-up from Tyler about the "baseline return":

https://portfoliocharts.com/2018/11/24/ ... more-25297
The technical definition of the baseline return is that it’s the 15th percentile inflation-adjusted compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for a given investing duration looking at every start date we have access to. But practically speaking, the baseline return is just a reasonably conservative real-world annual return that accounts for inflation, uncertainty, and compound returns while excluding the worst outliers.
You can find neat graphical tools on Tyler's Web site providing such information (e.g. the Long-Term Returns chart).

If you're interested in more flexible portfolio choices and/or investing durations, you can also use the Simba backtesting spreadsheet, using either the Compare_Portfolios or the Lazy_Portfolios tab and the 'low CAGR' cycle stats, setting up the percentile target to 15% (cell D122).

PS for Tyler: let me suggest to extend the Long Term Returns calculator to allow time periods of up to 20 or even 25 years? 15 is really short for such stats to be meaningful...

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Tyler9000
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Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

Post by Tyler9000 » Sat Dec 01, 2018 11:39 pm

siamond wrote:
Thu Nov 29, 2018 1:07 pm
A cool write-up from Tyler about the "baseline return":

https://portfoliocharts.com/2018/11/24/ ... more-25297
Thanks Siamond! I'm glad you like it.

BTW, I also love what you're doing with Simba. It's one of the things that inspired me in the first place, and it's great to watch you continue to improve it year after year.

amrap
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Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

Post by amrap » Thu Jan 10, 2019 3:58 am

Many thanks for the amazing work Tyler9000.

I've been studying everything since the website went global ("2017/04/29/portfolio-charts-is-going-global/") and I'm especially focused on the EUR data modeled through Germany.

Regarding this, I've found that the "All Seasons Portfolio" does extremely good in the Portfolio Matrix benchmarks in comparison with its performance in US and Canada.

I would like to ask you, what specific assets are used in this calculation? For example, in the index list ("/portfolio/index-funds/") there are no gold assets for the 7.5% of the All Seasons. Is there any bias that is making the All Seasons portfolio look so good in EUR?

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Tyler9000
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Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

Post by Tyler9000 » Thu Jan 10, 2019 11:06 am

It's my pleasure! I'm glad you find it useful.
amrap wrote:
Thu Jan 10, 2019 3:58 am
I would like to ask you, what specific assets are used in this calculation? For example, in the index list ("/portfolio/index-funds/") there are no gold assets for the 7.5% of the All Seasons. Is there any bias that is making the All Seasons portfolio look so good in EUR?
The German All-Seasons portfolio includes:

30% German total stock market
40% Long Term Bunds
15% Intermediate Bunds
7.5% Commodities
7.5% Gold

The data is all from academic sources and applies to many different funds, and my index fund list is not comprehensive. A good example of a gold ETF in Germany would be ETFS Physical Gold (VZLD), and bullion coins would work as well.

You're definitely correct that individual portfolios may look a lot better in certain countries. The reason the All-Seasons portfolio looks so good in Germany is likely due to the long-term bonds. Enter 100% bonds into the My Portfolio tool, and when you flip between countries you'll see that Germany's bond market has historically been particularly strong even compared to the US. Now whether that's a permanent reality of the market is certainly up for debate, just like the discussion about strong US stock performance relative to the rest of the world. Personally, I like flipping between countries to note which portfolios are relatively consistent in different sets of economic conditions.

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Tyler9000
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Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

Post by Tyler9000 » Sun Jan 20, 2019 2:52 pm

For fellow DIY investors who enjoy exploring different portfolio ideas, my big annual update for 2019 includes not only fresh 2018 data but also a fancy new interface that I think makes international diversification a lot simpler to understand and manage. So if you've ever tried the charting tools but felt overwhelmed by all of the options, it's worth your time to give it a new look. Enjoy!

https://portfoliocharts.com/2019/01/20/ ... y-started/

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siamond
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Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

Post by siamond » Tue Mar 26, 2019 8:57 pm

Tyler issued yet another excellent write-up about smart retirement planning and withdrawal strategies, and this came with a very cool new calculator allowing to simulate quite a few retirement spending strategies.

https://portfoliocharts.com/2019/03/25/ ... g-failure/

sixtyforty
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Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

Post by sixtyforty » Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:04 pm

Excellent. Thank-you Tyler !
"Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" - Leonardo Da Vinci

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Tyler9000
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Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

Post by Tyler9000 » Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:35 pm

You're welcome! And thanks for the plug, Siamond.

I'm pretty proud of this one, and it's a good example of a tool where I honestly didn't know when I started how the performance of different combinations of portfolios and spending methods might turn out. So we're all learning something new together.

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willthrill81
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Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:55 pm

Tyler9000 wrote:
Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:35 pm
You're welcome! And thanks for the plug, Siamond.

I'm pretty proud of this one, and it's a good example of a tool where I honestly didn't know when I started how the performance of different combinations of portfolios and spending methods might turn out. So we're all learning something new together.
It's a fantastic tool Tyler!! You've really outdone yourself this time! :sharebeer
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

pward
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Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

Post by pward » Wed Mar 27, 2019 9:52 pm

Yes, great new tools Tyler! The site just keeps getting better and better.

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SpartanFan
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Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

Post by SpartanFan » Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:16 pm

Tyler,

Can you explain the logic used to include real estate in your "Retirement Spending" calculator?

Thanks for all the great tools - Tom
"There's a crack in everything, that's how the light gets in" - Leonard Cohen (RIP)

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willthrill81
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Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:18 pm

SpartanFan wrote:
Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:16 pm
Tyler,

Can you explain the logic used to include real estate in your "Retirement Spending" calculator?

Thanks for all the great tools - Tom
I believe that he used REIT data.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

Post by SpartanFan » Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:23 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:18 pm
SpartanFan wrote:
Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:16 pm
Tyler,

Can you explain the logic used to include real estate in your "Retirement Spending" calculator?

Thanks for all the great tools - Tom
I believe that he used REIT data.
I assume then, that I should NOT include personal real estate like my primary residence and vacation home values in this calculator. Correct?
"There's a crack in everything, that's how the light gets in" - Leonard Cohen (RIP)

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Tyler9000
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Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

Post by Tyler9000 » Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:24 pm

SpartanFan wrote:
Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:23 pm
I assume then, that I should NOT include personal real estate like my primary residence and vacation home values in this calculator. Correct?
Correct. The data follows a broad index of US REITs. Individual homes aren't covered, and for the purposes of the calculations should be considered separate from your portfolio.

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