U.S. stocks in free fall

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TomatoTomahto » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:06 pm

I’m starting to miss all those “Tesla going to 0” predictions. Never thought that would happen.

Tesla is one of the few stocks up today; made me think of it.

kilkoyne
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by kilkoyne » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:10 pm

RetireBy55 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:25 am
michaeljmroger wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:08 am
So the Dow lost 5% in 2 days. How often does that ever happen?
EXACTLY.

Looks like I picked the worst of all possible times to retire. Glad I have several years of cash to live off of..in the meantime, it's brutal to watch my paper net worth plummet by big chunks, day in, day out.
Easy solution....stop watching. :)

J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by J G Bankerton » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:13 pm

corn18 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:03 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:59 pm
My last dip is up .89%. Hear comes Santa Clause.
I thought you had enough money already. Santa is coming regardless of the markets.
It's not money, it's points. Mr. Bankerton would never touch "money". :annoyed
Not the Santa but "Santa Clause Rally".

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corn18
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by corn18 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:21 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:13 pm
corn18 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:03 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:59 pm
My last dip is up .89%. Hear comes Santa Clause.
I thought you had enough money already. Santa is coming regardless of the markets.
It's not money, it's points. Mr. Bankerton would never touch "money". :annoyed
Not the Santa but "Santa Clause Rally".
I don't understand points.

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MotoTrojan » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:25 pm

Any thoughts on what caused the current daily-bottom inflection point? I am always fascinated by how swiftly a strong trend can reverse mid-day. Efficient market huh.

J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by J G Bankerton » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:26 pm

corn18 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:21 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:13 pm
corn18 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:03 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:59 pm
My last dip is up .89%. Hear comes Santa Clause.
I thought you had enough money already. Santa is coming regardless of the markets.
It's not money, it's points. Mr. Bankerton would never touch "money". :annoyed
Not the Santa but "Santa Clause Rally".
I don't understand points.
Points like one strives for in a game. In the game of life after one has enough dollars he strives for points.
I get points because I'm old, thank you all very much. :beer

J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by J G Bankerton » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:29 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:25 pm
Any thoughts on what caused the current daily-bottom inflection point? I am always fascinated by how swiftly a strong trend can reverse mid-day. Efficient market huh.
Mr. Bankerton's limit order executed. To infinity and beyond.

brokenrecord
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by brokenrecord » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:32 pm

Generally speaking (major indexes), does anyone know how far off we are from a bear market? I've seen headlines such as, "40% of S&P 500 is in Bear territory". All this volatility makes my unsophisticated assessment unclear.

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MotoTrojan » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:35 pm

brokenrecord wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:32 pm
Generally speaking (major indexes), does anyone know how far off we are from a bear market? I've seen headlines such as, "40% of S&P 500 is in Bear territory". All this volatility makes my unsophisticated assessment unclear.
Looks like we are just a touch under 8% down from the October peak. My quick google look actually seems to indicate we never officially closed down 10% and thus aren't even in a correction.

Really puts all this crazy "news" in perspective, huh?

vwgrrc
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by vwgrrc » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:35 pm

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:06 pm
I’m starting to miss all those “Tesla going to 0” predictions. Never thought that would happen.

Tesla is one of the few stocks up today; made me think of it.
And NIO, aka the Tesla Killer!

robertmcd
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by robertmcd » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:46 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:25 pm
Any thoughts on what caused the current daily-bottom inflection point? I am always fascinated by how swiftly a strong trend can reverse mid-day. Efficient market huh.
The plunge protection team. Next question.

J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by J G Bankerton » Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:03 pm

brokenrecord wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:32 pm
Generally speaking (major indexes), does anyone know how far off we are from a bear market?
What bear? I'm up 1% on today's buys.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:06 pm

Crisium wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:08 pm
ReformedSpender wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:24 am
marcopolo wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:48 pm
I must be missing something. I don't quite understand all the freaking out about today,
I looked at my portfolio in Quicken just now, it looks like my overall portfolio value just dropped back down to about where it was on...

...Wait for it.....

... way back on 11/28/2018. No additions or withdrawals during that time. So, basically gave back the gains for the last week. The horror.
Crisium wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:07 am
Stocks are almost as low as 13 days ago.

Panic!
While I don't mind this market action, I don't understand these reoccurring posts. You could make the same argument regardless of the date "Stocks are only where they were two weeks ago", "stocks are only where they were 6 months ago", "stocks are only where they were two years ago".

I believe the premise of concern by some individuals is driven by the overall direction or inability for sound advancement in equities. 1 step forward, 1 step back.

:beer
It's a personal opinion what is an significant time frame to compare back to. Mine is that 13 days is just noise. But context matters. And to be fair, we also had similar prices to day a full year ago. But that happens (correct me if I'm wrong) around a third of the time. -1 year isn't extraordinary.

I'm sure others find noise in 2 years. The correction in early 2016 took as back 2 full years, for example.

2009's lows took us back 12 years.
"A year in the market is just noise."
-Paul Merriman
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

marcopolo
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by marcopolo » Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:10 pm

ReformedSpender wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:24 am
marcopolo wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:48 pm
I must be missing something. I don't quite understand all the freaking out about today,
I looked at my portfolio in Quicken just now, it looks like my overall portfolio value just dropped back down to about where it was on...

...Wait for it.....

... way back on 11/28/2018. No additions or withdrawals during that time. So, basically gave back the gains for the last week. The horror.
Crisium wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:07 am
Stocks are almost as low as 13 days ago.

Panic!
While I don't mind this market action, I don't understand these reoccurring posts. You could make the same argument regardless of the date "Stocks are only where they were two weeks ago", "stocks are only where they were 6 months ago", "stocks are only where they were two years ago".

I believe the premise of concern by some individuals is driven by the overall direction or inability for sound advancement in equities. 1 step forward, 1 step back.

:beer
You don't think there is a difference between retracing a week's worth of gains and losing a decade?

"inability for sound advancement in equities."
Zoom out a little bit, the advancement in equities looks pretty sound to me. Were you expecting a monotonically increasing graph?
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

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ReformedSpender
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ReformedSpender » Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:32 pm

marcopolo wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:10 pm


You don't think there is a difference between retracing a week's worth of gains and losing a decade?

"inability for sound advancement in equities."
Zoom out a little bit, the advancement in equities looks pretty sound to me. Were you expecting a monotonically increasing graph?
Please read my post again :confused . I am paying no mind to the market. I am attempting to constitutes concerns of those who watch day to day action and the responses of others who feel compelled to correlate each level with a date
Last edited by ReformedSpender on Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

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Earl Lemongrab
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:37 pm

It's awful! Or is it? Currently The S&P 500 is higher than it was 11/23, 10/29, 5/3, the whole first half of April, etc. Choppy year, no telling where it will go from here.

As far a terrible year to retire, is it worse than 2008?
This week's fortune cookie: "Your financial life will be secure and beneficial." So I got that going for me, which is nice.

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nedsaid » Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:40 pm

retiringwhen wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:37 am

Freefall is the BH water cooler, just keeping talking everyone off the ledge, stay the course, don't do anything about it.....
I love this, you have it right! Got some smiles out of this.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nedsaid » Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:43 pm

The markets are trying to rally today. Dow down modestly, the NAZZ up barely, and the S&P 500 still having a bad day. Dow down 200 or so is still better than being down 600. Where this stops nobody knows. Markets will do what markets will do. Hopefully I don' jinx the rally here.
A fool and his money are good for business.

retiringwhen
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by retiringwhen » Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:44 pm

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:37 pm
It's awful! Or is it? Currently The S&P 500 is higher than it was 11/23, 10/29, 5/3, the whole first half of April, etc. Choppy year, no telling where it will go from here.

As far a terrible year to retire, is it worse than 2008?
I don't know. ERN's SWR studies show the lower the CAPE at retirement, the higher the sustained SWR allowed. It seems to me that a year with constantly growing earnings, flat prices (over the year) and terrible earnings from 10 years ago dropping off the overall picture is starting to look good. Just hold on tight for the bumpy air. BTW, if you retired in early 2008 with a razor thin margin it was scary, but hey the last 10 years were good for your portfolio....

retiringwhen
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by retiringwhen » Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:47 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:40 pm
retiringwhen wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:37 am

Freefall is the BH water cooler, just keeping talking everyone off the ledge, stay the course, don't do anything about it.....
I love this, you have it right! Got some smiles out of this.
Those of us posting at 10am were too busy to put in sell orders at the bottom of the day :D

Now, I got 10 minutes to decide if i'll TLH today (i have to go to my third string funds since I TLH's 24 days ago...)

I am thinking i'll stay on the sidelines and see what it looks like next week after the 12th.

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nedsaid » Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:56 pm

retiringwhen wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:47 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:40 pm
retiringwhen wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:37 am

Freefall is the BH water cooler, just keeping talking everyone off the ledge, stay the course, don't do anything about it.....
I love this, you have it right! Got some smiles out of this.
Those of us posting at 10am were too busy to put in sell orders at the bottom of the day :D

Now, I got 10 minutes to decide if i'll TLH today (i have to go to my third string funds since I TLH's 24 days ago...)

I am thinking i'll stay on the sidelines and see what it looks like next week after the 12th.
Gosh, I wondered who was crashing the markets. :wink: I am sure your sell orders just overwhelmed the trading desks. Or maybe you are just talking the markets down so you can buy cheap at the end of the day. I bet you never knew your power to move markets.

I have wondered though if Cliff Asness is exacting revenge on us for criticizing him and his AQR funds.

I am having fun with this, a Boglehead thread or one person's sell orders aren't causing this. Cliff Asness isn't even causing this. But it is fun to think about. Markets do what markets will do, sometimes markets do really weird things.
A fool and his money are good for business.

retiringwhen
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by retiringwhen » Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:05 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:56 pm
I am having fun with this, a Boglehead thread or one person's sell orders aren't causing this. Cliff Asness isn't even causing this. But it is fun to think about. Markets do what markets will do, sometimes markets do really weird things.
There truly is madness in crowds. Or maybe algorithms. I wonder sometimes if the reality is that all those algorithmic HFT trading types out there contain some pretty common triggers (like if the US arrests a Chinese CFO, SELLL!!!!!!!! or maybe it is triggered off the number exclamation points in Marketwatch headlines) It takes a few hours for someone to say, hey, maybe I want to be on the other side of that trade, just how sophisticated are the algorithmic triggers on the macro/meta news? I am sure they are very very good at the microsecond level...

BTW, having an basically unplanned banking holiday didn't help the market stabilize. A lot of folks sat around wondering what would happen today after Tuesday's route. Sort of like the reason livesoft says don't count Mondays or Fridays as RBDs.....

Dottie57
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Dottie57 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:10 pm

Just hope this s not the beginning of a really bad 20 years.

gilgamesh
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by gilgamesh » Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:24 pm

Dottie57 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:10 pm
Just hope this s not the beginning of a really bad 20 years.
You are not asking for too much...

robertmcd
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by robertmcd » Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:27 pm

Guys... seriously stop worrying. The 2019 hikes have been priced out, and the Fed just confirmed that they will pause after December (if they even hike in the December meeting). Markets participants know all they have to to do is whine and bang their head on the floor in a tantrum like a child who's mom won't buy them candy, and the Fed will come running to the rescue with more free money. The 15% APY "money market" aka the S&P 500 will be back shortly when they cut rates back to 0, stop QT, and announce the next round of QE.

So stop worrying if you already have substantial assets because they will not ever be allowed to enter a sustained bear market. If the markets drop 50%, they will print until their eyes bleed to get it back up.

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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by JoMoney » Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:48 pm

ruralavalon wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:34 am
...
JoMoney wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:36 am
With the fervor I keep hearing before the market even opens today, I'm going to take the contrary position that it will close with very little change from yesterdays close, Friday's close will be an up day.
A guess, but just as sound as any other guess I suppose.
It is/was... just a contrarian gut feel based on seeing several news articles overreacting and some posts about literally being "excited" "this is it"... Friday being an "up day" projection is due to it being the day my automatic payroll contribution will buy. Today's close of -0.15% is a little lower than I thought, but if my projection on Friday is correct I'm going to count it. Might as well go for the Trifecta and call Monday as an up day as well ;)
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nedsaid » Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:48 pm

retiringwhen wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:05 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:56 pm
I am having fun with this, a Boglehead thread or one person's sell orders aren't causing this. Cliff Asness isn't even causing this. But it is fun to think about. Markets do what markets will do, sometimes markets do really weird things.
There truly is madness in crowds. Or maybe algorithms. I wonder sometimes if the reality is that all those algorithmic HFT trading types out there contain some pretty common triggers (like if the US arrests a Chinese CFO, SELLL!!!!!!!! or maybe it is triggered off the number exclamation points in Marketwatch headlines) It takes a few hours for someone to say, hey, maybe I want to be on the other side of that trade, just how sophisticated are the algorithmic triggers on the macro/meta news? I am sure they are very very good at the microsecond level...

BTW, having an basically unplanned banking holiday didn't help the market stabilize. A lot of folks sat around wondering what would happen today after Tuesday's route. Sort of like the reason livesoft says don't count Mondays or Fridays as RBDs.....
Yes, crowds can be mad, even institutional crowds like mutual funds, pension plans, hedge funds, etc. The small investor is criticized for not knowing much, chasing performance, being too emotional. But actually, the small investor behaved pretty well during the 2008-2009 financial crisis and bear market. Vanguard and Fidelity data from this period indicated that 401k investors pretty much stayed the course during this very difficult time. But I see a lot of really crazy behavior from the professionals, who quite frankly, ought to know better. But they don't. Greed and fear even infects the professionals.
A fool and his money are good for business.

JW-Retired
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by JW-Retired » Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:15 pm

JW-Retired wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:24 am
corn18 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:09 am
I predict this is a 4 digit point loss today (DOW).
I'll "predict" it will be down too. If it is, I promise to share my forecasting algorithm here. :twisted:
JW
Prediction was on the money!
The algorithm is heads=up and tails=down.

Thankfully, tomorrow is predicted to be up.
JW
Oops, it was down a hefty amount.
JW
Last edited by JW-Retired on Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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CULater
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CULater » Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:23 pm

If you think this is bad, check out Europe and the FTSE. Freefall time!
May you have the hindsight to know where you've been, The foresight to know where you're going, And the insight to know when you've gone too far. ~ Irish Blessing

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corn18
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by corn18 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:39 pm

corn18 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:09 am
I predict this is a 4 digit point loss today (DOW).
I am always wrong when it comes to predicting the market. Well, mostly wrong. If I were always wrong then that would be great for others.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by GoldenFinch » Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:02 pm

Dottie57 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:10 pm
Just hope this s not the beginning of a really bad 20 years.
Everything is fine. I remember the olden days in my own life when I didn’t pay attention to the stock market and didn’t care. It was there and I was invested, but I didn’t pay attention. I think we, Bogleheads, like to pay attention, but sometimes it’s to our detriment. And I mean that in a caring way in that I think we would be fine financially if we stepped back a bit and didn’t watch the daily ups and downs.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by VictoriaF » Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:15 pm

corn18 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:39 pm
corn18 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:09 am
I predict this is a 4 digit point loss today (DOW).
I am always wrong when it comes to predicting the market. Well, mostly wrong. If I were always wrong then that would be great for others.
Your mistake is not making a bad prediction but acknowledging that you were wrong. Experienced forecasters exercise a free option: if their forecasts come true, they brag about it for eternity; if their forecasts are off, they just forget about it.

Victoria
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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by J G Bankerton » Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:28 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:20 am
VictoriaF wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:15 am
Any guesses if the market will close higher or lower by the end of the day today?

My skin-in-the-game-less guess is that S&P500 will close 0.6% lower.

Victoria
I say -1.89%. If China starts arresting US businesswomen and Russia rams US warships it could be a bit more. :shock:
-.15% finish. I was right twice today, on the way down and on the way up.

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Taylor Larimore
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Taylor Larimore » Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:57 pm

robertmcd wrote: The smart money has known the economy has been smoke and mirrors for 18 yrs.
robertmcd:

Eighteen years ago, on December 1, 2000, the S&P 500 Index was 1,350. Today it closed at 2,696--almost double (without including dividends)

The "smart money" is right here by investors using The Bogleheads Philosophy:
Invest early and often
Never bear too much or too little risk
Diversify
Never try to time the market
Use index funds when possible
Keep costs low
Minimize taxes
Invest with simplicity
Stay the course
Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

Dottie57
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Dottie57 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:13 pm

GoldenFinch wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:02 pm
Dottie57 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:10 pm
Just hope this s not the beginning of a really bad 20 years.
Everything is fine. I remember the olden days in my own life when I didn’t pay attention to the stock market and didn’t care. It was there and I was invested, but I didn’t pay attention. I think we, Bogleheads, like to pay attention, but sometimes it’s to our detriment. And I mean that in a caring way in that I think we would be fine financially if we stepped back a bit and didn’t watch the daily ups and downs.
I agree it is to my detriment. I didn’t even notice the market in the early 2000’s. Too busy working.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:28 pm

corn18 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:09 am
I predict this is a 4 digit point loss today (DOW).
Another prediction bites the dust. :wink:
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by abuss368 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:06 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:57 pm
robertmcd wrote: The smart money has known the economy has been smoke and mirrors for 18 yrs.
robertmcd:

Eighteen years ago, on December 1, 2000, the S&P 500 Index was 1,350. Today it closed at 2,696--almost double (without including dividends)

The "smart money" is right here by investors using The Bogleheads Philosophy:
Invest early and often
Never bear too much or too little risk
Diversify
Never try to time the market
Use index funds when possible
Keep costs low
Minimize taxes
Invest with simplicity
Stay the course
Best wishes.
Taylor
Well said! :beer
John C. Bogle: "You simply do not need to put your money into 8 different mutual funds!" | | Disclosure: Three Fund Portfolio + U.S. & International REITs

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TVD » Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:56 am

HomerJ wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:50 am
TVD wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:03 pm
ruralavalon wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:23 pm
By the way since this thread started August 8, 2011 the total return of Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX) is up 158%, and $10,000 invested has turned into $25,836.
I would not be surprised that when the bottom is finally hit, you would have made more money staying in a money market even with the majority of time the return was at/near 0% (prior to expenses).
Sorry, impossible, since I rebalanced on the way up, so some of those stock gains were locked in, and will not be lost if the market crashes another 60% from today's level.
Interesting, another 60% is in the range of one possible target of this larger move. But, that would bring it to about fair value and usually these moves overshoot. So a triple digit S&P or a DOW 5000 would not surprise me.

J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:14 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:28 pm
corn18 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:09 am
I predict this is a 4 digit point loss today (DOW).
Another prediction bites the dust. :wink:
We all should make predictions; then the board will see when it comet predicting nobody knows nothing. Truly, NOBODY KNOWS NOTHING. :annoyed
Except for insider traders, they know things.

H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by H-Town » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:47 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:14 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:28 pm
corn18 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:09 am
I predict this is a 4 digit point loss today (DOW).
Another prediction bites the dust. :wink:
We all should make predictions; then the board will see when it comet predicting nobody knows nothing. Truly, NOBODY KNOWS NOTHING. :annoyed
Except for insider traders, they know things.
I kind of expect stock is in the red today and in the red for the week. I kind of expect stock to be flat for this year.

What if I'm wrong and we have 10% return this year when all said and done? Nothing really.
What if I'm wrong and we have 20% loss this year when all said and done? Nothing really.

I just keep on putting more money in the market as I have always done, regardless of how the market is doing.

One thing I know for sure: if the market have many down years, I will have more money when I stop working in my late 40's. If I'm not fortunate to have many down years in the stock market, I will still have enough money to retire early. More money won't make or break my long term goals.

J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:17 pm

The market is roller-coastering again. Insiders must have gotten wind of something. OMG :shock: A limit order I thought never had a chance to excocted just did. This is truly serious.

tony_roach
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Location: Philadelphia

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by tony_roach » Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:18 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:17 pm
The market is roller-coastering again. Insiders must have gotten wind of something. OMG :shock: A limit order I thought never had a chance to excocted just did. This is truly serious.
My ITOT taxable limit orders have not hit yet...so need it to go lower for me...

tony_roach
Posts: 54
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Location: Philadelphia

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by tony_roach » Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:00 pm

tony_roach wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:18 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:17 pm
The market is roller-coastering again. Insiders must have gotten wind of something. OMG :shock: A limit order I thought never had a chance to excocted just did. This is truly serious.
My ITOT taxable limit orders have not hit yet...so need it to go lower for me...
Well one of mine just executed.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:17 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:17 pm
The market is roller-coastering again. Insiders must have gotten wind of something. OMG :shock: A limit order I thought never had a chance to excocted just did. This is truly serious.
I might end the year with flat returns. Ho hum. They can't all be 2017.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

flyingaway
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by flyingaway » Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:58 pm

When the market is up, I could not find a reason why it should be down.
When the market is down, I could not find a reason why it should be up.

gilgamesh
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by gilgamesh » Fri Dec 07, 2018 5:03 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:17 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:17 pm
The market is roller-coastering again. Insiders must have gotten wind of something. OMG :shock: A limit order I thought never had a chance to excocted just did. This is truly serious.
I might end the year with flat returns. Ho hum. They can't all be 2017.
I’m hoping for a flat return :D

vwgrrc
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by vwgrrc » Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:16 pm

S&P500 at 1-year level looks very similar to late 2017. If someone can make an overlapping chart... hold on your hats BHs! :oops:

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nedsaid » Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:55 pm

I did talk to my independent broker today, aka broker #4, and we discussed the very tumultuous markets. He said this had a very mechanical feel to it and that it was probably trading algorithms at work. Folks taking a profit and perhaps tax loss selling as well. Individual investors are not doing this, the big institutions are at fault. I asked him what he was buying and he said nothing. Just sitting tight and looking for opportunity. We did discuss that certain higher dividend, lower volatility stocks like Coke and Proctor and Gamble had been doing well recently. Sort of a flight to defensive stocks.

So it is like battening down the hatches and waiting the storm out. Big institutions, whoever they are, just seem to want this. They are determined to sell right now and there is nothing that us as individuals can do about it.

There was a discussion in another thread about a relatively flat yield curve and the threat of that curve inverting, meaning that short term yields could exceed long term yields. We aren't there yet, I think 3 and 5 year yields inverted but the rest of the curve still has long rates exceeding short rates but not by very much. You don't get much additional yield by extending maturities. This could mean that the bond market is worried about recession and this in turn is worrying the stock market.

My broker also discussed that the bond market seems to be mispricing risk. We discussed that you don't get significantly higher yields on bonds until you get to investment grade but nearing junk status. You don't get very much additional yield by lowering credit quality. My broker noted that the yield spreads between junk and investment grade are fairly narrow right now. He did say that there still seems to be yield chasing in both the bond and stock markets right now.

So we just have to be patient. These market storms, while not pleasant to go through, are perfectly normal.

This is a classic case of the markets trying to look forward and anticipate. Lots of talk about slowdown but the actual data says the economy is still strong right now.

.
A fool and his money are good for business.

tmcc
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by tmcc » Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:56 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:14 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:28 pm
corn18 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:09 am
I predict this is a 4 digit point loss today (DOW).
Another prediction bites the dust. :wink:
We all should make predictions; then the board will see when it comet predicting nobody knows nothing. Truly, NOBODY KNOWS NOTHING. :annoyed
Except for insider traders, they know things.
I'll make the call. If it gets there, the bottom will be 2100

J G Bankerton
Posts: 343
Joined: Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:30 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:15 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:55 pm
There was a discussion in another thread about a relatively flat yield curve and the threat of that curve inverting,
If that curve inverts it will be like crossing the beams in the Ghost Busters movie.

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