We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

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Typ997S
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We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by Typ997S » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:48 am

OK, everyone I know the (maybe) Inverted Yield Curve is bad enough, but now I give you this piece of news from the technical analysts:

"S&P 500 teeters on edge of a 'death cross,' and one key level could determine its next move"

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/06/sp-500- ... cross.html

It's amazing to me the amount of garbage that gets generated to fill the airwaves of CNBC, not to mention other "news" sources.

As good Bogleheads, I suggest we all stay the course! :beer

Arby
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by Arby » Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:31 am

I think it is useful to stay on top of financial news.

For example, GE's troubles are a warning sign. Additional signs from other companies might make a Treasury Fund more appealing than a general Bond Fund. Give up a little yield and sleep better.

Or when my company's CFO resigned, I lightened up on my company's stock. In this case, there was no hidden financial problems, but thought it was a prudent move in a non publicly traded stock.

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privatefarmer
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by privatefarmer » Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:53 am

Arby wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:31 am
I think it is useful to stay on top of financial news.

For example, GE's troubles are a warning sign. Additional signs from other companies might make a Treasury Fund more appealing than a general Bond Fund. Give up a little yield and sleep better.

Or when my company's CFO resigned, I lightened up on my company's stock. In this case, there was no hidden financial problems, but thought it was a prudent move in a non publicly traded stock.
the first example is public information - if you think you're fast enough to act on it before the market corrects you're kidding yourself.

The second example is more "insider information" on a non-publicly traded company. It could work, if the person buying your shares doesn't have the same info that you do.

We need to always remember that you aren't trading against some inanimate object, you are trading against other human beings. And if the other human knows as much, or more, than you do about the company or the market then you are most likely on the losing end. Unfortunately you can never know how much the other person knows on the other side of the trade but we do know that the vast majority of time it is an institutional trader on the other side w/ the best computers, teams of economists/phDs, and every other advantage that you don't have.

Point being - do not for one second think you have a leg up on the market. you don't. you may have gotten lucky from time to time on a trade but that is bound to happen by pure chance.

alwayshedge
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by alwayshedge » Fri Dec 07, 2018 5:30 am

I think it's best to keep this stuff on CNBC and off the forums. :happy

FireProof
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by FireProof » Fri Dec 07, 2018 5:31 am

Only on the financial pages of respectable publications do you see the equivalent of the ravings of a schizophrenic blogger.

mrc
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by mrc » Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:04 am

Actionable: Change channels. Better yet, turn of the tube.
If it’s not long term it’s small talk

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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by oldcomputerguy » Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:09 am

As a counterpoint, Kiplinger says that the fear of a "death cross" is "overblown":
Michael Kahn at Kiplinger wrote:Pundits are no doubt sharpening their pencils over the prospect that the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index is about to form a technical pattern called a “death cross.” And a death cross, as the name would suggest, should be quite deadly for stocks.

But is it?

The problem is that death crosses are quite unreliable signals in the stock market. Sometimes they do forecast a major selloff ahead. But other times they actually mark good buy signals.
Who's right? Beats me. So I guess I'll just stand here.
It’s taken me a lot of years, but I’ve come around to this: If you’re dumb, surround yourself with smart people. And if you’re smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you.

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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by Call_Me_Op » Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:30 am

Noise
Best regards, -Op | | "In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity." Einstein

h82goslw
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by h82goslw » Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:36 am

I am INCREDIBLY thankful that I have found this website because if it wasn’t for the great folks like livesoft, Taylor, Rick Ferri etc. I would still have my money with an advisor charging me too much money and freaking out over this latest “crash”. I even chuckle at my coworkers who have been lamenting this latest pullback and are selling stocks so that they can buy in when we hit the lows.
Because of you all, I continue to invest weekly/monthly and yawn at all this crazy stuff I see on the news and various websites. Thank you.

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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:42 am

We need to put this into proper context. First, add lots of reverb (big echo chamber). Next, us a low, monotonous voice to say “DEATH CROSS”.
Bogle: Smart Beta is stupid

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Cycle
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by Cycle » Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:47 am

"one key metric" "one key level" "one word trick"... Been seeing that for years and never click

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Ricchan
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by Ricchan » Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:48 am

As someone who doesn't watch financial news, the only time I hear about stuff like "DEATH CROSS" is on these forums.

Great, now I can't get that Alanis Morissette song out of my head.

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Random Musings
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by Random Musings » Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:55 am

Death Cross Analysis

Mixed bag. Ignore the asset allocation section.

RM
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Scooter57
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by Scooter57 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:13 am

Before you laugh off things like the rate curve inversion and major index death cross, you probably should educate yourself as to what they mean, because these are things a lot of investors take very seriously and because they do, they have an impact on the market. There are some silly indicators like "The Hindenburg omen" which are just fluff. But other things, including actual rate curve inversions are not.

Once you understand what people in the investment world are talking about you may well dismiss what they have to say. Most of it is click bait. But some of it is not. Knowing the difference matters, especially for those near or in retirement who don't have the luxury of waiting 10 or 15 years for their stock investments to return to where they are now.

finite_difference
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by finite_difference » Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:31 am

h82goslw wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:36 am
I am INCREDIBLY thankful that I have found this website because if it wasn’t for the great folks like livesoft, Taylor, Rick Ferri etc. I would still have my money with an advisor charging me too much money and freaking out over this latest “crash”. I even chuckle at my coworkers who have been lamenting this latest pullback and are selling stocks so that they can buy in when we hit the lows.
Because of you all, I continue to invest weekly/monthly and yawn at all this crazy stuff I see on the news and various websites. Thank you.
+1.

I listened to my father’s financial advisor from TIAA call the other day. He said he was “obligated” to reach out because my father’s employer was paying him for that service, and mentioned that my father’s portfolio was not taking full advantage, including of for example the “Real Estate” fund.

(Not sure what he’s talking about, since he has 10% in TREA. Otherwise it’s the Taylor Larimore 3-Fund portfolio.)

Next time he calls I’m going to talk to him, and tell him that if he really thinks his portfolio changes are better than the current portfolio, then he (or I) can make an anonymous post on a website called https://bogleheads.org, send each other the link, and see if the members agree that it’s a good idea. If it is, we will go ahead and implement it.

If it weren’t for the education from Jack Bogle, Taylor Larimore, and others here, I would be completely lost in the dark. I was so thankful to all Bogleheads after hearing that call. Knowledge is power. If it weren’t for you guys, my father would be easily out 1% of his portfolio per year.
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh

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cheese_breath
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by cheese_breath » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:57 pm

Typ997S wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:48 am
... It's amazing to me the amount of garbage that gets generated to fill the airwaves of CNBC, not to mention other "news" sources...
I'm not amazed. I think the financial networks are 'informally' in cahoots with the financial advisors to stroke the FUD. How many would tune in to listen to the same message (three fund portfolio, stay the course ) every day?
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.

Elena
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by Elena » Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:16 pm

They like to make it all very dramatic and catastrophic. Showbusiness.

averagedude
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by averagedude » Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:18 pm

For alot of people, the more you learn about investing, the dumber and broker you become.

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JupiterJones
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by JupiterJones » Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:25 pm

Sounds like a bad '70s movie.

"In a world where gangs run wild and justice turns a blind eye, one priest must put down his collar and make a stand. Charles Bronson is Father Brock McSteele in... DEATH CROSS!"
Stay on target...

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whodidntante
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by whodidntante » Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:35 pm

I saw this movie. There is nothing to worry about. The death star is still under construction and has an inexplicable weakness that can be easily exploited by the rebels.

97trophy
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by 97trophy » Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:50 pm

Remember CNBC primary business is to sell ad space. Ad space revenue is dictated by eyeballs. All media outlets have found that bad news stories gets more eyeballs than good ones.

The economic incentives of the media businesses are to promote bad news stories above all else. The presenters literally get bigger bonuses for scaring you. :oops:

Change channel...

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oldcomputerguy
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by oldcomputerguy » Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:58 pm

JupiterJones wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:25 pm
Sounds like a bad '70s movie.

"In a world where gangs run wild and justice turns a blind eye, one priest must put down his collar and make a stand. Charles Bronson is Father Brock McSteele in... DEATH CROSS!"
*Sigh* I miss Don LaFontaine.
:(
It’s taken me a lot of years, but I’ve come around to this: If you’re dumb, surround yourself with smart people. And if you’re smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you.

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HomerJ
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by HomerJ » Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:12 pm

JupiterJones wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:25 pm
Sounds like a bad '70s movie.

"In a world where gangs run wild and justice turns a blind eye, one priest must put down his collar and make a stand. Charles Bronson is Father Brock McSteele in... DEATH CROSS!"
I think you're mistaken.

That sounds like an AWESOME '70s movie!
The J stands for Jay

Bacchus01
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by Bacchus01 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:13 pm

So, with the market drops, when distributions are made, should we expect another drop in the Vanguard Index funds?

I'm anticipating more tax-loss harvesting to occur.

averagedude
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by averagedude » Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:29 pm

Scooter57 wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:13 am
Before you laugh off things like the rate curve inversion and major index death cross, you probably should educate yourself as to what they mean, because these are things a lot of investors take very seriously and because they do, they have an impact on the market. There are some silly indicators like "The Hindenburg omen" which are just fluff. But other things, including actual rate curve inversions are not.

Once you understand what people in the investment world are talking about you may well dismiss what they have to say. Most of it is click bait. But some of it is not. Knowing the difference matters, especially for those near or in retirement who don't have the luxury of waiting 10 or 15 years for their stock investments to return to where they are now.
When it comes to investing, all the information you need to know can be put on an index card. Technical terms like death cross, convergence divergence, bollinger bands, and dead cat bounce are terms that you can leave to the technical analysis experts. These chart monkeys dont make their money from investing, they make their money from selling financial products. Having a high savings rate, a reasonable asset allocation, and sticking with a plan through thick and thin is about all you need to know to be a successful investor.

Quickfoot
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by Quickfoot » Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:34 pm

averagedude wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:18 pm
For alot of people, the more you learn about investing, the dumber and broker you become.
That's why you need only a small amount of information about investing and a large amount of information about behavioral economics and behavioral investing. The mistake people make is thinking they need to know everything about investing and don't understand their own hard wired psychology, loss aversion, etc and shoot themselves in the foot until they run out of money :).

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Taylor Larimore
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Very Good Advice from averagedude

Post by Taylor Larimore » Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:49 pm

averagedude wrote:When it comes to investing, all the information you need to know can be put on an index card. Technical terms like death cross, convergence divergence, bollinger bands, and dead cat bounce are terms that you can leave to the technical analysis experts. These chart monkeys don't make their money from investing, they make their money from selling financial products.

Having a high savings rate, a reasonable asset allocation, and sticking with a (low cost) plan through thick and thin is about all you need to know to be a successful investor.
averagedude:

Thank you for very good advice.

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

pdavi21
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by pdavi21 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:55 pm

Death isn't good or bad; it just is.

DesertDiva
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by DesertDiva » Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:58 pm

Elena wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:16 pm
They like to make it all very dramatic and catastrophic. Showbusiness.
+1 Yes, it's just more click-bait
♫ Stocks go up ♫ Stocks go down ♫ Stocks go up ♫ Stocks go down ♫

BoggledHead2
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by BoggledHead2 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:11 pm

Perspective: this “crash” is still higher than the “all time high” I initially bought in

Time in, not timing ... I laugh when this [stuff --admin LadyGeek] becomes “water cooler chat” at the office

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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by H-Town » Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:19 pm

Typ997S wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:48 am
OK, everyone I know the (maybe) Inverted Yield Curve is bad enough, but now I give you this piece of news from the technical analysts:

"S&P 500 teeters on edge of a 'death cross,' and one key level could determine its next move"

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/06/sp-500- ... cross.html

It's amazing to me the amount of garbage that gets generated to fill the airwaves of CNBC, not to mention other "news" sources.

As good Bogleheads, I suggest we all stay the course! :beer
"Death Cross" LOL

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LadyGeek
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by LadyGeek » Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:10 pm

It's time yet again for this June 7, 2000 classic: Blue Line Jumps 11 Percent
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

kilkoyne
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by kilkoyne » Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:17 pm

Death Cross - Isn't that when one squiggly line crosses over another? :)

Miriam2
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by Miriam2 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:39 pm

I wonder what's worse - the Death Cross or the Hindenburg Omen??
The Hindenberg Omen occurs when both new 52-week highs and 52-week lows exceed 2.2 percent of NYSE traded issues, indicating large divergence. The Omen has appeared before all of the stock market crashes of the past 25 years. The first observation was August 12, and this has been confirmed by a second Omen on Friday, August 20. On July 6, the Death Cross appeared, in which the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day. After a brief rally, the market is now again on a downtrend and the 200-day moving average is rolling over. Is anybody getting scared yet?

But either way, thank goodness, Nisiprius will save us all again 8-)
nisiprius wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:47 am
The Hindenburg Omen is still good for another ten days. I mean bad for another ten days. I'm not giving up hope... er... I mean... I'm not giving up fear. On October 4th, the Hindenburg has a rendezvous with destiny!

Image
nisiprius wrote:
Mon Oct 04, 2010 2:38 pm
[DEAD AIR]
Sorry, we had a brief power outage. Charley is going to connect us now to the bridge of the Hindenburg, again.

Bluth: That's it.

Lehmann: Hang on.

Bluth: Okay, GDC is good.

Lehmann: Got a good S-II, gang.

Bluth: Cabin pressure's okay.

Lehmann: We're okay.

Bluth: Okay. Now we'll straighten out our problems here. I don't know what happened; I'm not sure we didn't get hit by lightning.

Ladies and gentlemen, the Hindenburg was just hit by a terrific bolt of lightning, a very dangerous situation due to the hydrogen, but there has been no damage. It is approaching the mooring post... it is moored. The sky has cleared. The sun is out. I can hear the Lakehurst High School Pipe and Drum Corps playing Beethoven's Pastorale symphony, as everyone is celebrating another yet safe and anticlimactic voyage of this magnificent aerostat. Tune in again when we cover the next arrival of the Hindenburg, which will take place right here in beautiful Lakehurst, New Jersey, on May 6th, 1937.

Image
Confirmed Hindenburg Omen on 8/20 - anybody watching?

Bacchus01
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by Bacchus01 » Sat Dec 08, 2018 12:21 am

Or that it matters, but I read a technical analysis today on the death cross. Essentially, it has been a precursor to every major downturn. However, in the last 50 years, returns after the death cross were, on average, BETtER than the opposite, which is the golden cross. The death cross of today is said to reflect “past” performance and may actually signal the bottom.

ras4250
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by ras4250 » Sat Dec 08, 2018 12:44 am

privatefarmer wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:53 am
We need to always remember that you aren't trading against some inanimate object, you are trading against other human beings. And if the other human knows as much, or more, than you do about the company or the market then you are most likely on the losing end. Unfortunately you can never know how much the other person knows on the other side of the trade but we do know that the vast majority of time it is an institutional trader on the other side w/ the best computers, teams of economists/phDs, and every other advantage that you don't have.

Point being - do not for one second think you have a leg up on the market. you don't. you may have gotten lucky from time to time on a trade but that is bound to happen by pure chance.
Will have to differ with you on this one. There are plenty of inanimate objects trading, they are called computers, specifically the high speed trading algorithms that have been developed.

Second - you have no idea why someone else is selling. it does not necessarily mean they have more information than you or you are on the losing side of the trade. How do you know the "vast majority of the time it is an institutional trader"? based on what? why isn't the other side of the trade the guy down the street? There is no way to know. If you are buying a stock at $100 it could be from someone who bought it at $50 and is cashing out to pay for college or from someone who bought it at $120 and is cutting their losses. No way to know.

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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by unclescrooge » Sat Dec 08, 2018 12:52 am

Typ997S wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:48 am
OK, everyone I know the (maybe) Inverted Yield Curve is bad enough, but now I give you this piece of news from the technical analysts:

"S&P 500 teeters on edge of a 'death cross,' and one key level could determine its next move"

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/06/sp-500- ... cross.html

It's amazing to me the amount of garbage that gets generated to fill the airwaves of CNBC, not to mention other "news" sources.

As good Bogleheads, I suggest we all stay the course! :beer
I'm pretty sure I've seen some variant of this headline every month for 4 years.

heyyou
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by heyyou » Sat Dec 08, 2018 1:44 am

Seems to me that the stock market often drops or stagnates for a while before it recovers, then eventually rises to new heights. With that constant risk of potential loss, the reward is more than for steadier investments. Over the long term, those temporary losses are advantageous to patient, less greedy retirees who also have some bond fund holdings to spend from, when necessary. For workers, buying shares at reduced prices is good, if you can keep your job during and after those crashes. Thus the more public angst, the more return for long term investors. We should thank the media for forecasting that the markets are due for another crash.

We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS the usual uncertainty.

quantAndHold
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by quantAndHold » Sat Dec 08, 2018 11:28 am

Recessions happen. If not now, then sometime. Yield curve inversions and death crosses and falling home sales are pretty good leading indicators of recessions. Stock markets often go down during recessions. Denying multiple recession indicators is probably whistling past the graveyard. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance, but future and past usually rhyme.

That said, is anything actionable here? Maybe, depending on what your IPS says. My IPS says nothing about death crosses. So I’m standing pat until my IPS says to do something.

peppers
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by peppers » Sat Dec 08, 2018 11:45 am

One of Nisiprius' creative moments...

viewtopic.php?p=835881#p835881

Flying piranhas......who knew..... :)
"..the cavalry ain't comin' kid, you're on your own..."

edgeway
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by edgeway » Sat Dec 08, 2018 12:00 pm

Scooter57 wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:13 am
Before you laugh off things like the rate curve inversion and major index death cross, you probably should educate yourself as to what they mean, because these are things a lot of investors take very seriously and because they do, they have an impact on the market. There are some silly indicators like "The Hindenburg omen" which are just fluff. But other things, including actual rate curve inversions are not.

Once you understand what people in the investment world are talking about you may well dismiss what they have to say. Most of it is click bait. But some of it is not. Knowing the difference matters, especially for those near or in retirement who don't have the luxury of waiting 10 or 15 years for their stock investments to return to where they are now.
+1

People shouldn’t laugh off information of any kind — that’s just arrogance. The S&P500 death cross is a rare event that is taken seriously by a lot of very smart people. I’m not sure why people would laugh that off.

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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by cheese_breath » Sat Dec 08, 2018 12:51 pm

peppers wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 11:45 am
One of Nisiprius' creative moments...

viewtopic.php?p=835881#p835881

Flying piranhas......who knew..... :)
Doug and Dinsdale Piranhas
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.

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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by Sandtrap » Sat Dec 08, 2018 12:55 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:12 pm
JupiterJones wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:25 pm
Sounds like a bad '70s movie.

"In a world where gangs run wild and justice turns a blind eye, one priest must put down his collar and make a stand. Charles Bronson is Father Brock McSteele in... DEATH CROSS!"
I think you're mistaken.

That sounds like an AWESOME '70s movie!
With a "disco" (Bee Gees?) soundtrack. :D

Although in this case:
"Death Cross" (confluence of tangent) vs "Goose Neck" (confluence of curves) vs "Disco Duck" (random erratic)

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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by Chip » Sat Dec 08, 2018 4:12 pm

edgeway wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 12:00 pm
People shouldn’t laugh off information of any kind — that’s just arrogance. The S&P500 death cross is a rare event that is taken seriously by a lot of very smart people. I’m not sure why people would laugh that off.
Let me propose a different point of view: it's not arrogance, it's humility. Since nearly all of us are amateur investors, we know we have little chance of separating the wheat from the chaff in investment news, though we are fairly certain that there is much more chaff than wheat. We also know that we don't stand a chance of beating professional traders at their own game. And that's what trying to act upon things like a death cross, cup & handle, head & shoulders top or bottom, Elliot Waves, etc. is attempting to do -- beat the professionals at their game.

So we play our game instead. That game is saving money and investing for the long term in a low cost diversified portfolio. And ignoring the noise in the financial media. And yes, often making fun of it. Because there is nothing we can do with that "information" other than reduce our long term returns by trying to time the market.

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Toons
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by Toons » Sat Dec 08, 2018 4:15 pm

Death Cross???
Relating to Money?
Comical
You must be jesting..... :mrgreen:
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

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Rowan Oak
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by Rowan Oak » Sat Dec 08, 2018 7:59 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:12 pm
JupiterJones wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:25 pm
Sounds like a bad '70s movie.

"In a world where gangs run wild and justice turns a blind eye, one priest must put down his collar and make a stand. Charles Bronson is Father Brock McSteele in... DEATH CROSS!"
I think you're mistaken.

That sounds like an AWESOME '70s movie!
+1

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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by JimmyJammy » Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:39 pm

Stats from that iMarketSignals Death Cross report linked above.

Market performance prior to a Death Cross (DC):

For 32 DC events, the S&P500 lost value over a 3-month period to the date of the DC, almost a 100% probability. The historic probability for the S&P500 to be lower after 3 months is only 44%.

For 20 DC events, the S&P500 lost more than 5% over a 3-month period to the date of the DC, a 60% probability. The historic probability for the S&P500 to be more than 5% lower after 3 months is only 18%.

For 29 DC events the S&P500 lost value over a 6-month period to the date of the DC, an 88% probability. The historic probability for the S&P500 to be lower after 6 months is only 37%.

For 13 DC events the S&P500 lost more than 5% over a 6-month period to the date of the DC, a 39% probability. The historic probability for the S&P500 to be more than 5% lower after 6 months is only 22%.
___

Recessions:
There were ten recessions since 1950. Six recessions were preceded by a DC and for the other four the DC occurred at, or near the beginning of the recessions.

There was never a recession without an associated DC.

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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by AlphaLess » Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:49 pm

Typ997S wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:48 am
OK, everyone I know the (maybe) Inverted Yield Curve is bad enough, but now I give you this piece of news from the technical analysts:

"S&P 500 teeters on edge of a 'death cross,' and one key level could determine its next move"

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/06/sp-500- ... cross.html

It's amazing to me the amount of garbage that gets generated to fill the airwaves of CNBC, not to mention other "news" sources.

As good Bogleheads, I suggest we all stay the course! :beer
Way to go to pro-long the garbage news cycle!
"You can get more with a kind word and a gun than with just a kind word." George Washington

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oldzey
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by oldzey » Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:06 am

The DEATH CROSS is fully operational.

Image
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develop
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Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Post by develop » Mon Dec 10, 2018 9:01 am

JimmyJammy wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:39 pm

Recessions:
There were ten recessions since 1950. Six recessions were preceded by a DC and for the other four the DC occurred at, or near the beginning of the recessions.

There was never a recession without an associated DC.
It seems to me that this answers the wrong question. I'm not too concerned how many recessions included a death cross event. Isn't it more important to know how many death cross events there were and how many led to recessions (or bear markets)?

If death crosses predicted 32 of the last 10 recessions, I don't feel that this is a helpful predictive tool. I may have misunderstood your post, but didn't you reference at least 32 death cross events? If 22 (or many more?) of them didn't lead to anything, death crosses may not be so bad. Again, I admittedly may have misunderstood something.

Edited for clarity.

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