Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

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BrendanP
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Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by BrendanP » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:39 pm

My wife and I are considering purchasing a small vacation home close to the beach on the Jersey Shore. We're looking at the areas in and around Atlantic City (Brigantine, Ventnor, Margate, etc.) or farther North near Asbury Park.

I'm not looking for feedback or advice about this being a good financial decision (it's not) but rather advice about how flood insurance and climate change would tie into the expected costs assuming me move forward with this purchase.

This would most likely be a small 1 or 2-bed condo inside a large to medium-sized condo building, but we wouldn't rule out purchasing a small house.

My questions are:

1)Are Flood insurance costs built into the Common charges of the condo building?

2) Should I be concerned about large insurance increases in the near future or have they already been priced into the market?

3) Do people purchase secondary/supplemental insurance or would the Homeowners insurance cover interior damage from weather such as a hurricane and/or storm surge?

4) What are some good resources that I could use to investigate more regarding flooding of specific areas?

5) Any suggestions on steps that we could take to protect our 2nd home and keep it usable for as long as possible?

6)Seriously, what do people think the long-term prospects are for Jersey Shore beaches regarding climate change? It's not like people will ever stop vacationing at the beach even if there is a 5 foot ocean rise.

Appreciate any and all help
Thanks!

ziggny
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by ziggny » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:44 pm

Not an expert on insurance, so I'll skip the first five questions. But if you acknowledge the plausibility of a five foot increase in ocean levels, then you should also acknowledge that the beachfront will probably be located around Cherry Hill. The area currently known as the "shore" would likely be uninhabitable - certainly all of the existing municipal infrastructure would be destroyed.

jb1
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by jb1 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:49 pm

As a former NJ resident to answer #5, yes, buy a shorehouse in Florida or NC and use it year round. Only way to use it as "long as possible". NJ youll only have 3 months to use it.

texasdiver
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by texasdiver » Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:02 pm

I would most definitely NOT assume that potential increased insurance costs or potential environmental damage due to storms or rising sea levels have been priced into the market. Real estate is not at all like the stock market and there is a lot of institutional, individual, and commercial denial about these possibilities in an effort to put on a happy face and keep property values high. Property values may stay high in the face of all kinds of potential risks until suddenly they don't.

The other thing to remember about real estate is that you are not insulated from the actions or inactions of your neighbors. This one guy in Mexico Beach Florida built a modern hurricane resistant home to the latest standards. He did everything right. HIs neighbors did not. His house survived unscathed but the entire town was destroyed around him. Now what? He has a beautiful beach house in a sea of rubble and no neighbors and no idea whether or not the community will ever be restored back to anything like it once was.Image

Same thing applies to anyone who buys or owns in any potential danger zone. Cabins in fire hazard zones in the woodlands or CA or CO. Coastal properties along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts in the path of hurricanes and rising sea levels. You may do everything right individually, but if the town crumbles around you, what do you have left?

Rupert
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by Rupert » Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:08 pm

I can speak to question #2 but not the others since I don't live in NJ or in a condo. On the coast, you need both flood insurance and wind insurance. Flood insurance from the federal government, wind insurance from your normal HO insurance company. Flood insurance costs are set by the federal government and may or may not increase after a major storm. HO insurance costs spike in the years following a major storm but then start to slowly decline until the next storm. Some insurers will pull out of the region altogether following a major storm, and you may have trouble finding any HO coverage at all (let alone affordable HO insurance), at least for the first few years following a storm. Most insurance policies have wind storm deductibles these days. In my region (Gulf Coast), 5% is typical, which means insurance companies never have pay to replace roofs following hurricanes.

Because of the cost of insurance and the uncertainty re whether you'll be able to buy insurance at all after a storm, I plan to retire far from any coast.

J G Bankerton
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by J G Bankerton » Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:14 pm

Sea Isle City was a foot above sea level 60 years ago, same as it is today. The barrier islands should have beach plumb trees and grasses. It is natural for the barrier islands to wash away and come back.

WS1
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by WS1 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:19 pm

How flood resistant is the condo building (how quickly was it habitable after Sandy and what adaptations have been made since?)
This is by no means a less expensive option, but if you buy and elevate a single family house at least you know exactly what risks you're getting.

smitcat
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by smitcat » Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:21 pm

BrendanP wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:39 pm
My wife and I are considering purchasing a small vacation home close to the beach on the Jersey Shore. We're looking at the areas in and around Atlantic City (Brigantine, Ventnor, Margate, etc.) or farther North near Asbury Park.

I'm not looking for feedback or advice about this being a good financial decision (it's not) but rather advice about how flood insurance and climate change would tie into the expected costs assuming me move forward with this purchase.

This would most likely be a small 1 or 2-bed condo inside a large to medium-sized condo building, but we wouldn't rule out purchasing a small house.

My questions are:

1)Are Flood insurance costs built into the Common charges of the condo building?

2) Should I be concerned about large insurance increases in the near future or have they already been priced into the market?

3) Do people purchase secondary/supplemental insurance or would the Homeowners insurance cover interior damage from weather such as a hurricane and/or storm surge?

4) What are some good resources that I could use to investigate more regarding flooding of specific areas?

5) Any suggestions on steps that we could take to protect our 2nd home and keep it usable for as long as possible?

6)Seriously, what do people think the long-term prospects are for Jersey Shore beaches regarding climate change? It's not like people will ever stop vacationing at the beach even if there is a 5 foot ocean rise.

Appreciate any and all help
Thanks!

1)Are Flood insurance costs built into the Common charges of the condo building?
Yes - but confirming by exact HOA is a must

2) Should I be concerned about large insurance increases in the near future or have they already been priced into the market?
Insurance is a concern anywhere you go - more so near a shore. I feel it is worth it but others opinion varies. If not the shore please consider there is more inland flooding then shore flooding and the related issues with: fires, earthquake, tornado , landslides, ARK rains, etc

3) Do people purchase secondary/supplemental insurance or would the Homeowners insurance cover interior damage from weather such as a hurricane and/or storm surge?
Only thru the National flood ins program

4) What are some good resources that I could use to investigate more regarding flooding of specific areas?
One good tool is the Nat Hurricane SLosh maps (google Slosh maps 2). You can zoon in on an area and interactively overlay the potential affects of hurricanes rated at 1, 2 3, 4 5 one at a time to see the results. NJ is not only more affected near the shore but its also more likely to get hit. I would pay close attention to any flood damage in your proposed area/street equating to any level 3 storms at the very least

5) Any suggestions on steps that we could take to protect our 2nd home and keep it usable for as long as possible?
My first choice would not be NJ - we go there often (in LI NY now) and weather and storm affects reduce usable time greatly.

6)Seriously, what do people think the long-term prospects are for Jersey Shore beaches regarding climate change? It's not like people will ever stop vacationing at the beach even if there is a 5 foot ocean rise.
I do not want to get into climate change politics but if you are concerned about a true 5' HW mark change there will be much larger problems for all of us to worry about.
Hope this helps

tchoupitoulas
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by tchoupitoulas » Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:23 pm

There are many important resources on this and you're doing the right thing asking these questions before you buy.

1)Are Flood insurance costs built into the Common charges of the condo building?
---I believe it depends on the building but you should absolutely ask. And figure out exactly what would be covered.

2) Should I be concerned about large insurance increases in the near future or have they already been priced into the market?
---Yes you should be concerned. Flood insurance is for the most part exclusively provided by the federal government via the National Flood Insurance Program and there are limits on how rates are calculated. Do not assume that whatever rate you see is an accurate reflection of the risk going forward. Read some articles about the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act of 2012 and the Homeowner Flood Insurance Affordability Act of 2014 to get a sense of how these things can change.

3) Do people purchase secondary/supplemental insurance or would the Homeowners insurance cover interior damage from weather such as a hurricane and/or storm surge?
---That's what the flood insurance is for. The standard homeowners insurance won't cover anything that is damaged by a flood.

4) What are some good resources that I could use to investigate more regarding flooding of specific areas?
---https://msc.fema.gov/portal/search Run a search on that site to see the official "Flood Insurance Rate Map" for the property. This will give you a sense of whether it is in a flood zone and if so how deep the floodwater is expected to be. Keep in mind that these maps are often out of date (in many cases by decades) and inherently backward looking. They DO NOT factor in the effects of climate change or sea level rise. They are built exclusively on historical data. There are other sites that have maps showing what various coastal areas will look like in several decades based on expected sea level rise. I would take a look at those too. Here's the one from the NOAA for example: https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/

5) Any suggestions on steps that we could take to protect our 2nd home and keep it usable for as long as possible?
---Make sure you have insurance.

6)Seriously, what do people think the long-term prospects are for Jersey Shore beaches regarding climate change? It's not like people will ever stop vacationing at the beach even if there is a 5 foot ocean rise.
---Look at the NOAA map I linked above for a place like Brigantine with the sea level 5 feet higher than it is today. At least half of it is underwater, and that's during high tide. Think of the investment required to keep the place habitable in that scenario. If there's a hurricane or a noreaster the situation changes dramatically. Barrier islands naturally like to shift in position and the whole place could be effectively erased by a big storm if the sea level is 5 feet higher. Assuming some chunk of people leave gradually as certain properties become uninhabitable, what will that do to the tax base, the local businesses, etc.?

retiringwhen
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by retiringwhen » Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:31 pm

As noted above, the barrier islands have been moving sometimes hundreds of feet a decade for as long as anyone knows. In the 20th Century folks conveniently forgot about that and started build “permanent” structures on them and then the Gov’t stepped in to ensure subsidized insurance for the investments as well as immense project with Army Corps of Engineers who tried to stop the movement of the islands (and main shorelines).

Regardless of the future related to climate change, you really need to ask if the investment is safe based upon the future government subsidy in insurance and beach replenishment.

That is your call.

theplayer11
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by theplayer11 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:45 pm

I would be more concerned with ridiculous taxes over climate change.

arf30
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by arf30 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:45 pm

My family has a shore house in NJ - when shopping we used the FEMA flood maps, we looked at areas that had little to no flooding during hurricane Sandy, and properties where the garage is on the first floor and the house starts on the second floor or properties that are built on a mound (pretty common). Some towns (like Belmar) will build sand walls on the beach before storms. We also purposely went a block back from the oceanfront block as those houses are hit the hardest.

Cruise
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by Cruise » Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:14 pm

Re #5, you might want to look at these:

https://geology.rutgers.edu/images/stor ... update.pdf

https://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/new ... dd214.html

The bottom line, so to speak, is exactly where is your desired property located and how protected are the underground utilities from ground-water inundation. Sea level rise just does not affect us from waves crashing from above. It also affects certain areas from below due to to impacts on subsurface water level.

If I was purchasing on the Jersey Shore, I would contact the Rutgers geology department and see what data they had that might pertain to the specific plot of land I was interested in purchasing.

Hockey10
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by Hockey10 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:16 pm

Use this link to find the base flood elevation of any properties that you are looking at:

http://www.region2coastal.com/view-floo ... okup-tool/

There is a wealth of terms in the the FEMA flood vocabulary that you should educate yourself on including flood zone, base flood elevation, elevation certificate, etc...

You can contact the local building department for the city you are looking in and ask what the current building code says about elevation for a new house. This will be significantly higher than the the height of the thousands of cottages that were built in Atlantic County in the middle of the last century.

If you do end up purchasing a house, I suggest to only do so if it meets the current elevation standards for the lower flood insurance rates. (So it is either a fairly new property, or it is an old one that has been elevated).

basspond
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by basspond » Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:20 pm

As more people Inhabit this earth the risks increases of having a major disaster just by the sheer numbers in almost any area you choose to live. Choose somewhere you like and is affordable and you will not regret your decision.

kayakprof
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by kayakprof » Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:23 am

It is as likely that flood insurance will go away entirely as it is that flood insurance will increase in cost. There is no private market for coastal flood insurance - it is a federal program - and it is a guaranteed loser in terms of paying for itself. In fact, the last administration tried to phase it out, but congress passed short term funding because coastal property is so important to the economy. The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) is in serious debt ($25 billion plus), and the number of storms hitting major population centers has put them even farther behind. As long as the feds continue to offer insurance, it is still possible to purchase a condo/home using a mortgage. A few thoughts. If one truly loves the beach, it may be worth the risk of losing the property entirely. If the insurance goes away, will banks have the option of calling the mortgages? In NJ, estimates (which could be off by a lot) are that we'll see about 1-2 sea level rise (SLR) by 2050, and 5-6 feet by 2100. So possibly good for the next 30 years except for the possibility of major storms. Check out the report put out by the Union of Concerned Scientists called "Encroaching Tides: How Sea Level Rise and Tidal Flooding Threaten US East and Gulf Coast Communities Over the Next 30 Years."

Valuethinker
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:17 am

BrendanP wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:39 pm
eps that we could take to protect our 2nd home and keep it usable for as long as possible?

6)Seriously, what do people think the long-term prospects are for Jersey Shore beaches regarding climate change? It's not like people will ever stop vacationing at the beach even if there is a 5 foot ocean rise.
Setting aside the question of if it is going to happen ...

if it does happen, there won't be beaches on the Jersey Shore to worry about.

Remember the storm and tidal surges will be much much higher. Think Sandy.

There was an article in the New York Times (I think) a couple of months back that resale prices of Atlantic beach front homes were beginning to suffer. It was either the Washington Post or the NYT - Real Estate section.

z3r0c00l
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by z3r0c00l » Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:21 am

I will eventually inherit a house 12 feet above, and about 120 feet away from sea level. (Distance actually doesn't matter that much in storm surges.) I have reasonable expectations of it being fine through 2050 because it is buffered by a mile of wetlands before the bay, itself a huge buffer against the open ocean. A house directly on the ocean such as on Fire Island or the Jersey shore beachfront? I would give even odds on surviving just the next 10 years. Would never buy such a home and luckily a family member, who had invested in just such a home, sold it a few years before Sandy. It was destroyed and cannot be rebuilt.

If you want beachfront, rent. If you want to own (and I am 100% behind that choice, having a home by the ocean is a life-changing thing) then I would want to be up hill and a few blocks back. Walking to the beach isn't so terrible.

Shallowpockets
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by Shallowpockets » Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:27 am

There is a lot to digest posted here. One thing you may want to consider is, do you need this second property at all? Another recnt post was on property taxes and it looks as if New Jersey is close to the highest in the nation. That is petty much lost money and a considerable chunk at that. Would it be smarter to just rent out a house when you want to go? Are you really going to make use of it as you dream?
Owning that property you are pretty much going back to the same place when you want the beach. The east coast is full of beach houses north to south. Surely you could take a beach holiday in many places and perhaps at a much lower cost than owning this one in N.J.
How far do you live from the Jersey shore?

aristotelian
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by aristotelian » Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:47 am

texasdiver wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:02 pm
I would most definitely NOT assume that potential increased insurance costs or potential environmental damage due to storms or rising sea levels have been priced into the market. Real estate is not at all like the stock market and there is a lot of institutional, individual, and commercial denial about these possibilities in an effort to put on a happy face and keep property values high. Property values may stay high in the face of all kinds of potential risks until suddenly they don't.

The other thing to remember about real estate is that you are not insulated from the actions or inactions of your neighbors. This one guy in Mexico Beach Florida built a modern hurricane resistant home to the latest standards. He did everything right. HIs neighbors did not. His house survived unscathed but the entire town was destroyed around him. Now what? He has a beautiful beach house in a sea of rubble and no neighbors and no idea whether or not the community will ever be restored back to anything like it once was.Image

Same thing applies to anyone who buys or owns in any potential danger zone. Cabins in fire hazard zones in the woodlands or CA or CO. Coastal properties along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts in the path of hurricanes and rising sea levels. You may do everything right individually, but if the town crumbles around you, what do you have left?
Once the rubble is cleared away, I kind of like the new beach. Quiet, beautiful spot, with no neighbors? Sounds perfect! Buy there, and ask him to recommend his contractor.

Jags4186
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by Jags4186 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:54 am

arf30 wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:45 pm
My family has a shore house in NJ - when shopping we used the FEMA flood maps, we looked at areas that had little to no flooding during hurricane Sandy, and properties where the garage is on the first floor and the house starts on the second floor or properties that are built on a mound (pretty common). Some towns (like Belmar) will build sand walls on the beach before storms. We also purposely went a block back from the oceanfront block as those houses are hit the hardest.
My family has a house on the jersey shore. On a house that is in the center of the block, on the center block (2 blocks from the bay, 2 blocks from the ocean) we had 5 feet of water in the house and the house was 4 steps off the ground. Now the house is 7 feet off the ground.

3feetpete
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by 3feetpete » Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:02 am

BrendanP wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:39 pm
I have owned a small condo in Maryland for 17 years.

My questions are:

1)Are Flood insurance costs built into the Common charges of the condo building?
Flood insurance costs re built into HOA's. They cover the structure only. Not the furnishings.
2) Should I be concerned about large insurance increases in the near future or have they already been priced into the market?
Insurance has increased every year but not dramatically.
3) Do people purchase secondary/supplemental insurance or would the Homeowners insurance cover interior damage from weather such as a hurricane and/or storm surge?Yes owners purchase supplemental inurance for interior damage. I do not.

4) What are some good resources that I could use to investigate more regarding flooding of specific areas?
There are flood maps available for all areas.

5) Any suggestions on steps that we could take to protect our 2nd home and keep it usable for as long as possible?
My home is masonry, concrete block on concrete piles and concrete floor beams. The first floor is parking so very limited flood damage potential.
6)Seriously, what do people think the long-term prospects are for Jersey Shore beaches regarding climate change? It's not like people will ever stop vacationing at the beach even if there is a 5 foot ocean rise. I wouldn't worry about it. The ocean rise in your lifetime is likely to be a few inches. The Army Corps of Engineers regularly has beach replenishment programs.


Valuethinker
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:13 am

3feetpete wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:02 am

6)Seriously, what do people think the long-term prospects are for Jersey Shore beaches regarding climate change? It's not like people will ever stop vacationing at the beach even if there is a 5 foot ocean rise. I wouldn't worry about it. The ocean rise in your lifetime is likely to be a few inches. The Army Corps of Engineers regularly has beach replenishment programs.


1. it's not possible to rely on those forecasts any longer - the uncertainties have become too great and the recent observational data is quite pessimistic in its implications -- unstable non linear phenomena are coming into play.

2. beach replenishment is a tough one. There are not infinite resources for such programmes. There is a world shortage of beach sand (desert sand won't serve as an alternative for making cement and repairing beaches, the granules are too smooth apparently). Managed retreat is becoming a watchword across the world.

Jeff Goodell's https://www.amazon.com/Water-Will-Come- ... 031626024X is a good popular read on the subject. For complex reasons to do with the slowing of the MAO (Meridional Atlantic Overturning? aka what causes the Gulf Stream effect) the US Atlantic coast is particularly vulnerable.

One would be foolish to risk more assets than one could afford to lose on betting against this. That goes for Miami condos but also along the US East Coast.

Valuethinker
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:18 am

kayakprof wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:23 am
It is as likely that flood insurance will go away entirely as it is that flood insurance will increase in cost. There is no private market for coastal flood insurance - it is a federal program - and it is a guaranteed loser in terms of paying for itself. In fact, the last administration tried to phase it out, but congress passed short term funding because coastal property is so important to the economy. The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) is in serious debt ($25 billion plus), and the number of storms hitting major population centers has put them even farther behind. As long as the feds continue to offer insurance, it is still possible to purchase a condo/home using a mortgage. A few thoughts. If one truly loves the beach, it may be worth the risk of losing the property entirely. If the insurance goes away, will banks have the option of calling the mortgages? In NJ, estimates (which could be off by a lot) are that we'll see about 1-2 sea level rise (SLR) by 2050, and 5-6 feet by 2100. So possibly good for the next 30 years except for the possibility of major storms. Check out the report put out by the Union of Concerned Scientists called "Encroaching Tides: How Sea Level Rise and Tidal Flooding Threaten US East and Gulf Coast Communities Over the Next 30 Years."
I agree the US NFIP is in serious trouble.

A home is a 100 year asset. Nearly everyone in my family lives in a home (in North America or Europe) that is 100 or more years old - even my aunt who lives in a condo it was built out of the conversion of an 80 year old school.

So if you think your house is not going to be there in 50 years because the site is no longer habitable, then if you want to sell it in 30 years, you are going to have a problem. The market does not lack foresight.

The Dutch are out front on this: floating homes, homes that can be jacked higher as sea levels etc. Managed retreat from some diked poulders. The sea will come, and the Dutch, being the careful, unflashy, pragmatic Dutch, will be as ready as they can be.
Last edited by Valuethinker on Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:24 am, edited 1 time in total.

Valuethinker
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:24 am

basspond wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:20 pm
As more people Inhabit this earth the risks increases of having a major disaster just by the sheer numbers in almost any area you choose to live. Choose somewhere you like and is affordable and you will not regret your decision.
It's not an even probability distribution though in every square meter of the planet. Some places are getting more risky faster than others.

There are higher densities in some more vulnerable areas. Downtown Manhattan for example did not have a significant residential population say 40 years ago -- it does now. Bangladesh is poster child number one for the future dangers of this and is losing the sunderbans (Mangrove swamps) which help to protect its coastline. The loss of coastal wetlands in the USA is having the same effect - increasing flood risks.

The question is whether one can afford to take 100% capital loss - a wipeout. If not, one has to consider insurance (if it is available), adaptation (home on a raised elevation) or just not making that purchase decision. It could be as little as 20 years before these things get very difficult to sell (in fact, one of the Real Estate sections of the NYT or WP had an article on just this problem beginning to hit some US east coast housing areas already).

Valuethinker
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:31 am

In the UK you can buy a house or apartment on a short leasehold.

Say 40 years. For 40 years, in return for a pre agreed ground rent to the freeholder (often a wealthy aristocratic family), you have the right to inhabit your property and make cosmetic changes (usually) to it.

At the end of 40 years you have to leave (I think they may have amended the law that you and your spouse cannot be forced out but you can't pass on an expired leasehold to your estate). If you want a lease extension you have to go to court and pay for 2 surveyors (one acting for each side) to calculate the "marriage value" of increasing the lease in terms of the resale value of the flat. The court then adjudicates if the 2 parties cannot agree.

In practice properties are unmortgageable for much less than 70 year leases (depending on area) because if the bank repossesses it is sitting on a wasting asset.

This feels like a short leasehold decision. People live in the very centre of London, in Mayfair and Knightsbridge, in apartments that cost say £1000 psf when the going rate is £3000-4000 (for a very long leasehold). Mrs Thatcher did so, in fact.

Buy the property, and know that it will not be there in 40 years, say. Value zero.

Think of it as a long term rental contract.

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sperry8
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by sperry8 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:31 am

texasdiver wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:02 pm
I would most definitely NOT assume that potential increased insurance costs or potential environmental damage due to storms or rising sea levels have been priced into the market. Real estate is not at all like the stock market and there is a lot of institutional, individual, and commercial denial about these possibilities in an effort to put on a happy face and keep property values high. Property values may stay high in the face of all kinds of potential risks until suddenly they don't.

The other thing to remember about real estate is that you are not insulated from the actions or inactions of your neighbors. This one guy in Mexico Beach Florida built a modern hurricane resistant home to the latest standards. He did everything right. HIs neighbors did not. His house survived unscathed but the entire town was destroyed around him. Now what? He has a beautiful beach house in a sea of rubble and no neighbors and no idea whether or not the community will ever be restored back to anything like it once was.Image

Same thing applies to anyone who buys or owns in any potential danger zone. Cabins in fire hazard zones in the woodlands or CA or CO. Coastal properties along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts in the path of hurricanes and rising sea levels. You may do everything right individually, but if the town crumbles around you, what do you have left?
Wow, that's quite a photo. OP one other thing to understand is that perhaps your home won't be "under water" but the roads will. Flooding in Miami Beach is everywhere during any rain these days which makes going out on rainy days a tough time. The houses have been (or are be) being built up but the flooding continues. So these houses may exist for the life of the owners - but the infrastructure around them (like in this photo) are already being negatively affected. Why buy? Why not rent? Renting allows you to 'leave' when you want. And 'visit' when you want. What's the upside to buy vs rent here?
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by SmallSaver » Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:42 am

I'm afraid I don't have much info for your specific situation, but I think you are wise to at least consider it. Two points I would like to make:

1) Sea level change of x amount does just mean everything increases by x, it generally makes the probability of floods much higher. I.e. an increase of six inches may not sound like much, but it makes a storm surge of several feet many times more likely. The physical risk over the next several decades is from storms.

2) I would not at all assume this risk is priced in to the market. Also, and this is a just my theory, the writedown of coastal real estate doesn't need to wait for the threat to fully manifest. Right now it's still easy to act like the problem isn't real, but at some point that won't be the case and everyone may head for the exits at once. See this, for instance.

Unfortunately, sea level change is relatively hard to predict and good information can be hard to come by. Coastal managers should absolutely be working on this and I expect most are behind the scenes, but the amount of publicly published information is sometimes a political decision.

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Watty
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by Watty » Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:57 am

One problem is that it does not take climate change for there to be unexpected problems. Even in a place like New Jersey there are not good records going back more than about 200 years since once you be back to colonial times the records may just say things like "big storm" or "big flood" which is hard to use in planning. In less developed parts of the country there might not even be 100 years of usable records. Many unexpected weather events may be due to the lack of good records and not climate change. (No, I am not trying to deny climate change.)

Something to budget for is that if you are planning on renting it out to help cover the costs then you will have no rental income if it has even minor damage. In an area like that if a bad hurricane hits and causes widespread damage it will be very hard to find a contractor to fix the property so even with relatively minor damage it can take a long time to get it fixed.

Another risk is that if the property has major damage then you may not be able to rebuild it the way it was and it may have to meet current requirements. The cost to upgrade the property may not be covered by your insurance.

Be sure to go through the details of the condo HOA with a fine tooth comb. Not only do they need to have insurance but they also need to have enough insurance to actually rebuild so they could be underinsured.

Also verify the insurance. Over ten years ago my neighbor bought a condo on the gulf coast only to have it destroyed a few months later by Hurricane Ivan. There was only a concrete slab where the condo had been. The condo had been paying for hurricane insurance for years but the problem was that the insurance broker was a scam who was taking the premiums but never actually buying the insurance so they actually had no insurance. The HOA board was run by owners who didn't know a lot about property management so they never caught this and just automatically renewed the insurance each year.

He was doing this with a number of condos and had gotten away with it for years since no hurricanes had hit that area. That was of course fraud but he was older and died before he could be sent to jail, he had spent the money so there was nothing to recover from him.

The empty beachfront lot still has some value but to sell it would require the owners and any mortage holders to agree to a sale and so far they have not been able to get enough of them to agree to actually sell the land. Some of the owners have also died and they have to deal with their estate and multiple heirs so it is a big mess that is getting messier with huge ongoing legal fees and many of the people are not paying their HOA dues. I suspect that it will go on for a lot longer until the property is eventually sold for not paying the property taxes.

Part of the problem that the HOA board was run by owners who don't have a lot of skills with managing a situation like that. I have not heard all the details but I would also assume that the people who had been on the HOA board over the years are also at risk of being sued.

My neighbor had bought the condo with a mortage and was still making the payments probably because the lender could try to recover money from them if they defaulted on the mortage. I think it was a 15 year mortage, if so at least it will be paid off soon.
Last edited by Watty on Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:59 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by ThatGuy » Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:59 am

texasdiver wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:02 pm
I would most definitely NOT assume that potential increased insurance costs or potential environmental damage due to storms or rising sea levels have been priced into the market. Real estate is not at all like the stock market and there is a lot of institutional, individual, and commercial denial about these possibilities in an effort to put on a happy face and keep property values high. Property values may stay high in the face of all kinds of potential risks until suddenly they don't.
A coastal town near me voted out their mayor this last election because of this ostrich-like behavior. The county realtor's association flooded the city with flyers trying to tank the mayor's re-election bid. His sin? He was working with the state on a plan for managed retreat, i.e. eventually not allowing any dwellings or businesses between the Pacific Coast Highway and the ocean.

This could not stand, anything other than protecting all existing buildings and encouraging more growth everywhere was obviously a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad idea.

Despite the city having issues with cliff erosion underneath apartments, and sinkholes in pavement near the water. Oh, and the fact that whenever there are heavy rains the low lying neighborhoods get flooded, and the wastewater system gets overwhelmed so they divert to the ocean without treatment...

If this happens in the Bay Area I hate to think of the denial in areas where climate change is not taken as a religious edict.
Upton Sinclair wrote:It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by smitcat » Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:03 am

I see a number of folks reference Hurricane Sandy in regards to NJ - please keep in mind that Sandy was less than a level 1 at most times for NJ - we got very lucky with Sandy so using it as a worst case scenario can be very misleading.

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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by smitcat » Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:07 am

ThatGuy wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:59 am
texasdiver wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:02 pm
I would most definitely NOT assume that potential increased insurance costs or potential environmental damage due to storms or rising sea levels have been priced into the market. Real estate is not at all like the stock market and there is a lot of institutional, individual, and commercial denial about these possibilities in an effort to put on a happy face and keep property values high. Property values may stay high in the face of all kinds of potential risks until suddenly they don't.
A coastal town near me voted out their mayor this last election because of this ostrich-like behavior. The county realtor's association flooded the city with flyers trying to tank the mayor's re-election bid. His sin? He was working with the state on a plan for managed retreat, i.e. eventually not allowing any dwellings or businesses between the Pacific Coast Highway and the ocean.

This could not stand, anything other than protecting all existing buildings and encouraging more growth everywhere was obviously a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad idea.

Despite the city having issues with cliff erosion underneath apartments, and sinkholes in pavement near the water. Oh, and the fact that whenever there are heavy rains the low lying neighborhoods get flooded, and the wastewater system gets overwhelmed so they divert to the ocean without treatment...

If this happens in the Bay Area I hate to think of the denial in areas where climate change is not taken as a religious edict.
Upton Sinclair wrote:It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.
Good post , might as well add these to that area as well....

Despite the city having issues with cliff erosion underneath apartments, and sinkholes in pavement near the water, Tsunamis, earthquakes, ARK rains, mudslides, and fire, Oh, and the fact that whenever there are heavy rains the low lying neighborhoods get flooded, and the wastewater system gets overwhelmed so they divert to the ocean without treatment...

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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:13 am

pdavi21 wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:07 am
I'm not going to question the validity of Climate Change science, but consider the factors that go into calculating sea level rise. It's almost as hard as calculating market performance. If you want beachfront property, I'd say sea level rise is lower on the list of reasons not to get it.

Once again, my only opinion is that sea level rise calculation is difficult and near impossible.
Uncertainty is not your friend in this because things could be worse than we think -- because it's not a fully understood phenomenon (mostly around the dynamics of glacial melting) our projections have tended to be conservative.

Housing is a long lived and illiquid asset.

Someone buying your house now will be thinking about the habitability of the house 30 years out, because even they plan to sell it in 10 years, that's only 20 years to go ...

A bank mortgaging your house for 30 years will want to know it's going to be there for at least another 30 years, so the next buyer can get a mortgage...

and so on.

So this is not some far in the future risk. It's a risk --now.

It will crystallize as and when there is a bad storm, and banks and insurance companies start to look at the cost of rebuilding and the cost of claims. You will see communities start to fall apart as reconstruction expenditure is just not made.

Miami as always is the baseline (along with New Orleans) because Miami is built on water permeable sandstone. Rising sea levels threaten the infrastructure long before the water gets into the streets.

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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by WhyNotUs » Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:26 am

BrendanP wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:39 pm

This would most likely be a small 1 or 2-bed condo inside a large to medium-sized condo building, but we wouldn't rule out purchasing a small house.

One upside of a condo is that you are pooling your risk and thus may get a little better pricing. I would look for the second floor and above :-)
My questions are:

1)Are Flood insurance costs built into the Common charges of the condo building?
You will need to ask that about specific condo buildings

2) Should I be concerned about large insurance increases in the near future or have they already been priced into the market?
Large increases are likely IMO

3) Do people purchase secondary/supplemental insurance or would the Homeowners insurance cover interior damage from weather such as a hurricane and/or storm surge?
Understanding your policy and coverages is critical in these types of situations. You will need to look at that for specific units

4) What are some good resources that I could use to investigate more regarding flooding of specific areas?
First, you can look at the FEMA maps to see the various areas that you are considering. If you find an area with risk that is acceptable to you, then find a place that you really like. Then do a lot of homework. The photo shared from Mexico beach is a great example of the issues that are being faced that do not fall under the umbrella of flood risk. Who would want to live in that area of hardship, isolation, and sadness?

5) Any suggestions on steps that we could take to protect our 2nd home and keep it usable for as long as possible?
Don't buy on first floor, buy in a building that was built recently in accord with latest prevention, accept the risk and that many others will be losing their primary home to put your situation in perspective.

6)Seriously, what do people think the long-term prospects are for Jersey Shore beaches regarding climate change? It's not like people will ever stop vacationing at the beach even if there is a 5 foot ocean rise.
Rent

Appreciate any and all help
Thanks!
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by pdavi21 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:32 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:13 am
pdavi21 wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:07 am
I'm not going to question the validity of Climate Change science, but consider the factors that go into calculating sea level rise. It's almost as hard as calculating market performance. If you want beachfront property, I'd say sea level rise is lower on the list of reasons not to get it.

Once again, my only opinion is that sea level rise calculation is difficult and near impossible.
Uncertainty is not your friend in this because things could be worse than we think -- because it's not a fully understood phenomenon (mostly around the dynamics of glacial melting) our projections have tended to be conservative.

Housing is a long lived and illiquid asset.

Someone buying your house now will be thinking about the habitability of the house 30 years out, because even they plan to sell it in 10 years, that's only 20 years to go ...

A bank mortgaging your house for 30 years will want to know it's going to be there for at least another 30 years, so the next buyer can get a mortgage...

and so on.

So this is not some far in the future risk. It's a risk --now.

It will crystallize as and when there is a bad storm, and banks and insurance companies start to look at the cost of rebuilding and the cost of claims. You will see communities start to fall apart as reconstruction expenditure is just not made.

Miami as always is the baseline (along with New Orleans) because Miami is built on water permeable sandstone. Rising sea levels threaten the infrastructure long before the water gets into the streets.
The models make a lot of assumptions. Two being:
1. No solution that hasn't been thought of yet will be thought of.
2. Human contribution will continue in xx ways based on future economic conditions.

Because of the inclusion of future economic conditions and lack of technological innovations, I'd argue the forecasts for sea level rise are too unpredictable to use for serious decision making.

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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by pdavi21 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:34 am

I figured out the perfect response:

BOGLEHEADS DONT TIME THE SEA LEVEL

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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:46 am

pdavi21 wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:32 am


The models make a lot of assumptions. Two being:
1. No solution that hasn't been thought of yet will be thought of.
2. Human contribution will continue in xx ways based on future economic conditions.

Because of the inclusion of future economic conditions and lack of technological innovations, I'd argue the forecasts for sea level rise are too unpredictable to use for serious decision making.
Assuming the problem away is not the same thing as not making a forecast.

In fact, you are suggesting an explicit forecast - that the hysteresis in the Earth's climate system is not so great that something can happen in a limited time frame that will alter its course.

The reality is if we stop any excess emissions right now, the glaciers go on melting for decades or centuries to come -- and we are nowhere near stopping emissions. In fact, emissions have just risen again (having paused) and we are neatly tracking RCP 8.5, the highest of the scenarios considered in AR5.

Maybe there will be a solution (controlled nuclear fusion has been 50 years away from commercial reality since I first read about it when I was about 8 ;-). Maybe human civilization will alter its course fast enough to forestall the consequences we currently forecast (on a relatively conservative scientific basis, science being, by its nature, cautious). Maybe we have correctly modelled the risks and not missed something which means the speed and/or magnitude are greater than we think they are going to be. Maybe Atlantic hurricanes are not going to get as severe as some predictions suggest.

That's a lot of maybes to bet on quite an important financial decision - most people don't buy a first or second home expecting its resale value could be zero.

But take the US Navy's word for it - they are rebuilding their port and base facilities around Norfolk VA for "recurrent flooding" which is the politically tactful way of saying they think the sea level is rising, and with it the flood risk.

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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:50 am

pdavi21 wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:34 am
I figured out the perfect response:

BOGLEHEADS DONT TIME THE SEA LEVEL
But they do consider the impact of their health on their average life expectancy.

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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by David Jay » Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:57 am

How long do you expect to keep the house?

Global sea level has been rising at about 1.8mm per year for the last couple of centuries, with no sign (yet) of any acceleration.

So in 20 years, one could expect that global sea level will be about an inch and a half higher than it is today.
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by bhsince87 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:10 am

Is this priced into the market?

I don't now about NJ, but I have followed the real estate market about 50 miles down the coast in Rehoboth Beach DE for quite some time.

I'd say the answer is "yes and no"

Houses that are 2-5 blocks off the beach have typically tripled in value over the past 10 years. $500k homes then are now in the $1.5 million range.

Beach front homes that were $1million then are about $1.2 million now.

However, some beachfront condos that were $400 k then are around $900k now.

So prices are still rising, but it appears as if beach front houses are increasing in value at a slower rate.
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:24 am

The Army Corps of Engineers regularly has beach replenishment programs.
They pump sand on the beach in Ocean City every year. The sand washes down to Wildwood where the walk from the boardwalk to the water gets longer and longer. At low tide it is hard to see the water from the boardwalk.

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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by pdavi21 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:27 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:46 am
pdavi21 wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:32 am


The models make a lot of assumptions. Two being:
1. No solution that hasn't been thought of yet will be thought of.
2. Human contribution will continue in xx ways based on future economic conditions.

Because of the inclusion of future economic conditions and lack of technological innovations, I'd argue the forecasts for sea level rise are too unpredictable to use for serious decision making.
Assuming the problem away is not the same thing as not making a forecast.

In fact, you are suggesting an explicit forecast - that the hysteresis in the Earth's climate system is not so great that something can happen in a limited time frame that will alter its course.

The reality is if we stop any excess emissions right now, the glaciers go on melting for decades or centuries to come -- and we are nowhere near stopping emissions. In fact, emissions have just risen again (having paused) and we are neatly tracking RCP 8.5, the highest of the scenarios considered in AR5.

Maybe there will be a solution (controlled nuclear fusion has been 50 years away from commercial reality since I first read about it when I was about 8 ;-). Maybe human civilization will alter its course fast enough to forestall the consequences we currently forecast (on a relatively conservative scientific basis, science being, by its nature, cautious). Maybe we have correctly modelled the risks and not missed something which means the speed and/or magnitude are greater than we think they are going to be. Maybe Atlantic hurricanes are not going to get as severe as some predictions suggest.

That's a lot of maybes to bet on quite an important financial decision - most people don't buy a first or second home expecting its resale value could be zero.

But take the US Navy's word for it - they are rebuilding their port and base facilities around Norfolk VA for "recurrent flooding" which is the politically tactful way of saying they think the sea level is rising, and with it the flood risk.
Not assuming away. I'm assuming it will be either much worse or much better than the forecast (or in between), and that it is NOT the most important a factor for investment in one property in a local housing market.

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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:17 pm

In the 20th century the sea level rose seven inches. Get this, parts of the Jersey shore rose four inches because of isostatic rebound. Yes the bedrock is still rebounding from the mile of ice it was under a few thousand years ago.

I got a ticket if I didn't clear the sidewalk back then. After a half mile of glacier it's hard to find a place to put it.

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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by retiringwhen » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:26 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:24 am
The Army Corps of Engineers regularly has beach replenishment programs.
They pump sand on the beach in Ocean City every year. The sand washes down to Wildwood where the walk from the boardwalk to the water gets longer and longer. At low tide it is hard to see the water from the boardwalk.
Wildwood could almost double in size after that beach growth, but of course it would make the boardwalk nearly worthless (well worth less than its already depressed value).

Yup, and where is the beach in Cape May? Stuck in stone piers to the north.......

They only move the sand around and create new messes, just ones to protect someone's house.... not all houses or properties.

I would love to buy a lot on the beach that had moving lot markers like LBI did 50 years ago. I'd put a camper on it and haul it away in the winter (who needs insurance for sand?). Sadly the big money bought all those places up years ago and put federally subsidized mansions and condos on them.....

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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by 8foot7 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:34 pm

As I sit here typing this, meteorologists working for various outlets are feverishly releasing contradicting reports of what my area can expect for a winter storm that will begin arriving in the next 18 hours. The range of forecasts goes from a "once in a generation" winter storm with over 12 inches of snow, to simply a three-day cold rain, to sleet and ice in half-inch accumulations along with an inch of snow, to perhaps very little of anything, and every combination in between.

My point is, apparently science hasn't quite got it all figured out yet. If we can't predict with any certainty between a cold rain and a foot of snow for a storm less than 24 hours away, I think it's quite inappropriate to make investment decisions over a 20-50 year timeframe based on climate forecasts that suggest maybe an entire shoreline will be wiped away.

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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:35 pm

retiringwhen wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:26 pm
I would love to buy a lot on the beach that had moving lot markers like LBI did 50 years ago. I'd put a camper on it and haul it away in the winterthem.....
For three maybe four months out of the year there is no place in the world better than the Jersey Shore. Other times it is just New Jersey.

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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by retiringwhen » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:37 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:35 pm
retiringwhen wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:26 pm
I would love to buy a lot on the beach that had moving lot markers like LBI did 50 years ago. I'd put a camper on it and haul it away in the winterthem.....
For three maybe four months out of the year there is no place in the world better than the Jersey Shore. Other times it is just New Jersey.
+1

retiringwhen
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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by retiringwhen » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:39 pm

8foot7 wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:34 pm
As I sit here typing this, meteorologists working for various outlets are feverishly releasing contradicting reports of what my area can expect for a winter storm that will begin arriving in the next 18 hours. The range of forecasts goes from a "once in a generation" winter storm with over 12 inches of snow, to simply a three-day cold rain, to sleet and ice in half-inch accumulations along with an inch of snow, to perhaps very little of anything, and every combination in between.
Whew, I just check my weather forecast, thought one was sneaking up on me :-) NJ already had one of those in NOV......

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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:42 pm

retiringwhen wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:39 pm
8foot7 wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:34 pm
As I sit here typing this, meteorologists working for various outlets are feverishly releasing contradicting reports of what my area can expect for a winter storm...
Whew, I just check my weather forecast, thought one was sneaking up on me :-) NJ already had one of those in NOV......
It snowed this morning in the highlands. I had to look too. I get a ticket for not clearing the public sidewalk. I'm watching that climate for sure.

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Re: Climate Concerns re: small Jersey Shore Vacation Home

Post by Jeff Albertson » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:52 pm

PBS recently aired a very good series, "Sinking Cities". Four episodes, one for each of these cities, New York, Toyko, London & Miami .
As the earth warms, sea levels rise and super-storms become more frequent and intense, many of the world’s major coastal cities may soon be under water. This series explores how four global cities are coming to grips with the real-time effects of rising seas and extreme weather.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnt94HTeSNY
https://www.pbs.org/show/sinking-cities/
http://www.pbs.org/wnet/peril-and-promi ... ng-cities/

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