Are you all staying the course?

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
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Phineas J. Whoopee
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by Phineas J. Whoopee » Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:09 pm

I don't know about we all, but I all am.
PJW

indexonlyplease
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by indexonlyplease » Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:32 pm

flyingaway wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:06 pm
I went to Kroger and saw the price of instant noodles is still $1 for a half dozen pack, so I decided to stay the course.
Thats funny. So meals for days.

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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:57 pm

nisiprius wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 5:46 pm
I am retired, and risk-averse by temperament, and at much less than 100% stocks.

I am staying the course.

In particular, I am not taking any actions in response to losses in the market value of my bond funds, either. Vanguard calculates my personal rate of return to be 4% for the last three years, 0.2% for the last year. I have lost a little money year-to-date.
Are you sure about last year? Even the vanguard target date retirement income fund (30/70) returned 8.47% from 1/1/17-12/31/17
(source: https://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fu ... A%5B%5D%7D)

And the return of the same conservative fund over the past 3 years was 13.97% cumulatively from 1/1/15-12/31/17 (three years)
source: https://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fu ... A%5B%5D%7D

Is the lower return because of withdrawals from the portfolio? I'm confused about your return if you're conservative.
"Invest we must." -- Jack Bogle | “The purpose of investing is not to simply optimise returns and make yourself rich. The purpose is not to die poor.” -- William Bernstein

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dogagility
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by dogagility » Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:25 pm

Yes, staying the course.
Taking "risk" since 1995.

pennylane
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by pennylane » Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:29 pm

Yes. What is the alternative? Pull out and earn 2% in a high yield savings? No thanks.

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willthrill81
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:40 pm

ReformedSpender wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:29 pm
I've been market timing and have made additional contributions to my holdings.

Tsk-tsk I know

:mrgreen:
I'm a trend follower, but my system is very 'long-biased', and I'm standing pat for now, enjoying the ability to buy at lower prices today than two months ago.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Will do good
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by Will do good » Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:42 pm

This is nothin', wait until it drops 30-50% than let's see who is staying put :twisted:

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willthrill81
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:44 pm

Will do good wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:42 pm
This is nothin', wait until it drops 30-50% than let's see who is staying put :twisted:
So true! I suppose last year's absence of volatility lulled some people into thinking that stocks weren't volatile. And this correction is little different from the correction we already had this year. I would have thought that after the first one, people would have woken up market volatility, but I suppose people's memories are short.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

97trophy
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by 97trophy » Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:01 pm

Will do good wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:42 pm
This is nothin', wait until it drops 30-50% than let's see who is staying put :twisted:
You make a valid point, many will bail. People are not as brave as they think they are.

MindBogler
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by MindBogler » Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:03 pm

I've been gliding to a 60/40 allocation from 80/20 for the last 18 months or so and I couldn't be happier. I went to 70/30 when the market was still up and then did a few more exchanges + new contributions to settle on 60/40. I think that is about right for me at this point in life.

Sam1
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by Sam1 » Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:14 pm

My goal is to invest thousands monthly into index and ETFs. Outside of retirement.

mancich
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by mancich » Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:19 pm

Sure am.

Anon64
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by Anon64 » Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:23 pm

Quick question about “rebalance bands”. Are these something you can actually set and get an alert (for example on Vanguard) or is this just something you keep track of yourself?

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AllieTB1323
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by AllieTB1323 » Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:36 pm

Been retired for five years with a 60/40 AA. DW and I checked the YTD return on BND vs VTI which confirmed our AA. Towards yearend we will TLH our taxable muni bond funds. :happy

DW calls TLH rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. :D

MindBogler
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by MindBogler » Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:40 pm

Anon64 wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:23 pm
Quick question about “rebalance bands”. Are these something you can actually set and get an alert (for example on Vanguard) or is this just something you keep track of yourself?
I use a spreadsheet with conditional formatting to keep track. I'm sure there are other ways but this way is easy and it works.

Colorado13
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by Colorado13 » Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:41 pm

Staying the course. I have some cash set aside for investing if we have a dip ( a real dip, not a 2-3% blip) but am not terribly interested in market timing...

radiowave
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by radiowave » Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:47 pm

Anon64 wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:23 pm
Quick question about “rebalance bands”. Are these something you can actually set and get an alert (for example on Vanguard) or is this just something you keep track of yourself?
I also track my portfolio with Excel and have a small table for rebalancing by bands. I usually update quarterly.

And yes, haven't changed a thing past few weeks as I'm still within my bands.

Stay the course.
Bogleheads Wiki: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Main_Page

JW-Retired
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by JW-Retired » Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:02 pm

Will do good wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:42 pm
This is nothin', wait until it drops 30-50% than let's see who is staying put :twisted:
What's the diffculty with staying put? If stocks do drop 50% my original 60/40 portfolio will lose half of my equity money. Meaning I still have 70% of my previous wealth. That is not all that terrible!

What could be terrible is if you keep on rebalancing all the way down so you have lost a really big percentage of your original money, and then are forced to quit at that point. So don't do that!
JW
Retired at Last

ronno2018
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by ronno2018 » Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:05 pm

Elena wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:47 pm
There are beans and lentils in the pantry, so, yes. I will buy cheaper next month, since new money is still coming in.

Don't forget the rice. Yum.

S&L1940
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by S&L1940 » Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:14 pm

Yep, staying the course
Retired, we do market time
Attempt to move tIRA into Roth when values are down, gets us some more shares into the Roth; minimizes tax hit
Try to draw RMDs from tIRA when values are up, mitigates sell off volume
Ditto draw spend from individual accounts when values are up

Need drives the activity not market movement, if the market is favorable, fine, if not, we may get em next time...
Does it work? Sometimes Yes and Sometimes No
Don't it always seem to go * That you don't know what you've got * Till it's gone

Independent George
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by Independent George » Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:48 pm

Yep. My 401(k) is in a Target Retirement fund, so no change there other than increasing my contribution on Jan 1, and I'm sticking to my allocation for my 4-fund Roth IRA.

I entered the job market during the dot com crash. I bought my condo at peak bubble 2007. I survived the 2008 crash. I have well over a year's worth of expenses on hand if I lose my job. No panic here.

broncocountry25
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by broncocountry25 » Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:48 pm

It is very surprising how many people have jitters with the recent market volatility (on Bogleheads).

Overall the demographic seems to be highly educated investors. Yet so many people are out there panicking.

More people need to go outside and take a walk. Or better yet figure out how to increase their income and stop worrying about what they can't control.

"If you are not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50% 2 or 3 times a century, you are not fit to be a common shareholder and you deserve the mediocre result you are going to get". -Charlie Munger

Yes staying the course at 100% equities because I am nowhere close to being rich in 2018 and we must accept risk to get ahead. :beer

kilkoyne
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by kilkoyne » Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:21 pm

Tried market timing for almost 3 years and always came out behind. I even had a paid subscription and would have been better off just holding.

Needless to say.......staying the course.

viz
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by viz » Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:25 pm

75% equity, 5% bonds, 20% real estate
Staying the course, still in accumulation phase so a little dip in stock price is much appreciated
Last edited by viz on Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Irisheyes
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by Irisheyes » Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:29 pm

Is this a trick question?

PFInterest
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by PFInterest » Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:35 pm

Esq123 wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:53 pm
How are you all handling the recent market volatility? Everyone staying the course? I am content for now that I am not 100% equities.
I didn't notice it.

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Random Musings
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by Random Musings » Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:54 pm

Staying the course. Will rebalance if bands hit.

RM
I figure the odds be fifty-fifty I just might have something to say. FZ

Teague
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by Teague » Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:56 pm

viz wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:25 pm
80% equity, 5% bonds, 20% real estate
...
Remarkable.
Semper Augustus

Sportswhiz00
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by Sportswhiz00 » Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:12 pm

100% equity here. I had seen tickers showing the market was down but hadn’t looked at my accounts in months. Checked today because I was bored. Thought about it for all of 5 minutes and went about my day. Will login again in a few months the next time I’m bored.

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FrugalInvestor
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by FrugalInvestor » Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:14 pm

Ignoring the noise and staying the course. :D
IGNORE the noise! | Our life is frittered away by detail... simplify, simplify. - Henry David Thoreau

UpperNwGuy
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by UpperNwGuy » Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:20 pm

Teague wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:56 pm
viz wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:25 pm
80% equity, 5% bonds, 20% real estate
...
Remarkable.
I saw what you did there.

2015
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by 2015 » Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:38 pm

Having taken actions in advance of market declines of any sort goes a long way to helping one stay the course they have set. Those actions would include, but are not limited to, having a well thought out process and being prepared for market returns significantly below historical norms.

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steve roy
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by steve roy » Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:13 am

Welll....

Just booked $29,000 in equity losses (the ever-popular "TLH") and so my asset allocation is a wee bit off. But I'll correct as more money comes in.

Some fun1

bighatnohorse
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by bighatnohorse » Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:14 am

The golden opportunity lies in converting traditional IRA to Roth IRA.

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sergeant
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by sergeant » Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:25 am

No worries here. I've been in Vegas for a week and never checked the market. I'm up a couple grand playing BJ. My playing partner checks the market every morning. A couple days ago he told me that I lost 10X more in one day in the market than I made playing BJ for the week. Didn't bother me a bit.
Lincoln 3 EOW!

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Hawaiishrimp
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by Hawaiishrimp » Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:34 am

Nope. I am 60% cash, 40% stocks since Sept. I anticipate a market correction.

Yes, I am timing the market. :beer
I save and invest my money, so money can make money for me, so I don't have to make money eventually.

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randomizer
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by randomizer » Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:34 am

Absolutely. This isn't even a test. Ask me when we're down 50% if I'm still holding strong — I fully expect to.
87.5:12.5, EM tilt — HODL the course!

KarenC
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by KarenC » Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:07 am

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:57 pm
nisiprius wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 5:46 pm
I am retired, and risk-averse by temperament, and at much less than 100% stocks.

I am staying the course.

In particular, I am not taking any actions in response to losses in the market value of my bond funds, either. Vanguard calculates my personal rate of return to be 4% for the last three years, 0.2% for the last year. I have lost a little money year-to-date.
Are you sure about last year? Even the vanguard target date retirement income fund (30/70) returned 8.47% from 1/1/17-12/31/17
(source: https://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fu ... A%5B%5D%7D)

And the return of the same conservative fund over the past 3 years was 13.97% cumulatively from 1/1/15-12/31/17 (three years)
source: https://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fu ... A%5B%5D%7D

Is the lower return because of withdrawals from the portfolio? I'm confused about your return if you're conservative.
I read “the last year” as the last 12 months (which include a so far yucky 2018), as opposed to last year (2017). That “the” makes a big difference.
"How much you know is less important than how clearly you understand where the borders of your ignorance begin." — Jason Zweig

greenback
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by greenback » Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:20 am

I'm 100% equities (excluding emergency fund) and am staying the course. To me the recent volatility isn't a concern as I have 35-40 years ahead of me before I need the money.
You shouldn’t retire until your money starts making more money than you made in your best year.

Lax67
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by Lax67 » Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:58 am

Yes. In fact, I just recently increased my contribution amount.

mmmodem
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by mmmodem » Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:05 am

Not only am I staying the course, I'm staying the course with mild satisfaction.

10 years ago I started a job that came with my 1st 401k account. Not knowing what to do, I started reading the Boglehead forum. The people here were telling me stocks were at a discount. I maxed out my retirement while the media spouted the doom and gloom of the great recession. It was difficult seeing my investments go down the first two years or so but livesoft and Taylor made such convincing arguments, I stayed the course. They were right.

At the beginning of this year, I took a new job and had to relocate the family. I pared down my monthly retirement savings so that we would have a little extra security in case things don't pan out in the new home. Over the summer I was glad and upset that everything went as planned. I didn't need the extra money but now had buy back in on highs. I decided to do nothing.

And then two weeks ago, I was mildly satisfied to be able to max out my equity allocation at the same price as I would've at the beginning of the year. None of this money will be needed for another 2 decades. It's easy to not look at it and stay the course.

goblue100
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by goblue100 » Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:14 pm

viz wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:25 pm
80% equity, 5% bonds, 20% real estate
Staying the course, still in accumulation phase so a little dip in stock price is much appreciated
I guess you really give that extra 5% in all you do. Or perhaps you are using a little leverage?
Financial planners are savers. They want us to be 95 percent confident we can finance a 30-year retirement even though there is an 82 percent probability of being dead by then. - Scott Burns

linberl
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by linberl » Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:14 pm

Well into retirement and staying the course. I did change my AA at the end of last year as I recognized I was less comfortable with risk than before. Now I am 65/35 and the lesser stock investment helps me sleep. Every time I get nervous I just come back to this forum; it has made a huge difference in my ability to deal with fluctuations. Seeing other people not freak out and stay calm really helps. I'm reinvesting (but not adding any other purchases) and not taking any withdrawals while the market is down. Even if the stock market dropped by 50%, my investment would not go below the amount I initially invested and which I know I can continue to live reasonably okay with. So - big thanks to Bogleheads for being here - and helping me stay the course and stay sane! It's nice to be able to read the financial news and just sigh and move on.

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Soul.in.Progress
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by Soul.in.Progress » Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:52 pm

Yup. Staying the course.

It’s a Boglehead ”secret of success” “key to success.”
Start by doing what is necessary; | then do what is possible; | and suddenly you are doing the impossible. | -- Francis of Assisi

Shallowpockets
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by Shallowpockets » Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:02 pm

Staying the course here.
Too late to get out now. The time passed for that. Even my VTI and SPDR are not doing well. Not this year. Can't say I am happy about the markets. I cannot have the cavalier attitude of many BHs who are almost gleeful at the market fall. Your investments does not preclude that fact that the markets can affect the economy. Much better if the markets do well.

I think this will be one of the lost years in investing for the indexes. That is why stay the course, you have to hope for better going forward.
Those gleeful ones who have a 20 year horizon, well, if this is a lost year then it is now, right now, a 19 year horizon. So all is not as well as you may think. You cannot change those timeframes. You have lost the time.

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midareff
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by midareff » Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:43 pm

LawEgr1 wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 5:38 pm
Absolutely.

I realized I don't mind the 'volatility', which I find to be very minimal. However, I'm also in accumulation phase. I imagine as I get nearer to retirement my risk tolerance will change, but for now it's full steam ahead. Or, perhaps not. Who knows. Long way to go.

Stay the course.
Nice big dip means you buy more shares for the same dollar.

tesuzuki2002
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by tesuzuki2002 » Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:48 pm

Esq123 wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:53 pm
How are you all handling the recent market volatility? Everyone staying the course? I am content for now that I am not 100% equities.
I have been pressing on the accelerator!!! buying up the value.

tesuzuki2002
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by tesuzuki2002 » Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:49 pm

Lax67 wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:58 am
Yes. In fact, I just recently increased my contribution amount.
BOOM!!!! keep at it!

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MN-Investor
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by MN-Investor » Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:04 pm

Based on my husband's retirement in 2016, we changed our AA to 38% stocks, 62% bonds and cash.

I'm fine with staying the course at this point in time.
The key to success - Save early, save often, invest well.

viz
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Re: Are you all staying the course?

Post by viz » Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:57 pm

goblue100 wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:14 pm
viz wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:25 pm
80% equity, 5% bonds, 20% real estate
Staying the course, still in accumulation phase so a little dip in stock price is much appreciated
I guess you really give that extra 5% in all you do. Or perhaps you are using a little leverage?
Ha ha.. typo fixed now :)

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