This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

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Fallible
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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by Fallible » Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:35 pm

steve321 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:06 am

...
yes you are right; he did get it right about China, but like it's been noted above, he also made some wrong ones. I guess his results should improve as the work progresses; he got it wrong on the US nearly 20 yrs ago so he should have improved his research method by now. But yes it's probably a good idea to have some skepticism.
Why would you "guess" his results will improve? What is the guess based on? And why do you say he "should have improved his research method by now"? What evidence is that based on? And no, it's not a "good" idea to have "some" skepticism. It's essential to have it, especially when it comes to investment risk - unnecessary risk.

OP, you have received such good advice here, but you still don't see the forest for the trees - and the wrong trees at that. Maybe later, after you've looked over this thread and thought it through, you will understand the advice and how it applies to you (and to all investors).
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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by Mr.BB » Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:44 pm

steve321 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:43 am
Mr.BB wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:36 am
tadamsmar wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:15 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:44 am

Thanks. It's an interesting idea. I wonder how it's held up in the past. Like most backtested theories, probably pretty well.
The guy has this experiment going where he "releases" encrypted short-term predictions and reveals them 6 months later. According to the TED talk.

The theory should allow short-term prediction of bubble crashes if it is true. Bubble formation is a bit longer term I think.
Why encrypt anything? Just have the specific predication written down, certified, sealed and put in a safety deposit box by a neutral party and then just reveal it at the proper time. Don't need to encrypt anything; a bunch of BS.
Hi BB, there was someone in the art business also called BB (Bernard Berenson), lucky guy, he made piles of money without having to bother with the stock market. Anyways, what's the difference between your method and encrypting the predictions? Don't they achieve the same thing? Why is encrypting BS?
The difference is when somebody and encrypts something they may be able to say it was meant to be interpreted a certain way. when something's written down plain and simple you have your answer if they're right or wrong.
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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by edgeagg » Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:52 pm

Mr.BB wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:44 pm
The difference is when somebody and encrypts something they may be able to say it was meant to be interpreted a certain way. when something's written down plain and simple you have your answer if they're right or wrong.
Umm. No. The reason he encrypts stuff is to be able to claim that his prediction did not influence the market since the prediction is only unsealed after the time at which the prediction becomes testable has passed.

As I remarked earlier, without secure timestamping, you don't know when he made the claim. Encryption doesn't provide any timestamp.

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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by sperry8 » Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:52 pm

steve321 wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:36 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:32 pm
WonderingDope wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:01 pm
Assuming Steve321 is sincere in his questions (I am beginning to have doubts), I would like to ask him:

What are your goals and why are you spending so much time and effort trying to find someone who can tell you how to "beat the markets?" Is the historical market return not good enough to make it where you want to go? Do you honestly not believe it when all of the good people of this forum tell you that beating the market is a very difficult thing to do and inevitably requires taking on more risk to do so?
I would like to hear these answers, too. I have noticed that every few days Steve321 writes a new post advocating yet another unorthodox investment idea that he has read about online. He seems intent on finding a way to beat the market. My advice to him would be to stop reading online investment articles and focus on investment fundamentals.
I suffer from anxiety and I am afraid of huge losses in my investments. Taleb shows that extreme events are possible and losses in the stock market can be much higher than the bell curve predicts. So I am looking for ways to manage my anxiety in this, including by researching serious methods of risk management.
Asset allocation is the way to manage your market anxiety. You need to have the proper AA so that your equity side can drop 50% and you're still OK with 'staying the course'. Find that AA - and your anxiety should lessen dramatically. Trying to time the market will only result in increased anxiety for you - since no proven method has been found.
Humbling BH contest results: 2017: #516 of 647 | 2016: #121 of 610 | 2015: #18 of 552 | 2014: #225 of 503 | 2013: #383 of 433 | 2012: #366 of 410 | 2011: #113 of 369 | 2010: #53 of 282

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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by tadamsmar » Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:05 pm

Mr.BB wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:44 pm
steve321 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:43 am
Mr.BB wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:36 am
tadamsmar wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:15 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:44 am

Thanks. It's an interesting idea. I wonder how it's held up in the past. Like most backtested theories, probably pretty well.
The guy has this experiment going where he "releases" encrypted short-term predictions and reveals them 6 months later. According to the TED talk.

The theory should allow short-term prediction of bubble crashes if it is true. Bubble formation is a bit longer term I think.
Why encrypt anything? Just have the specific predication written down, certified, sealed and put in a safety deposit box by a neutral party and then just reveal it at the proper time. Don't need to encrypt anything; a bunch of BS.
Hi BB, there was someone in the art business also called BB (Bernard Berenson), lucky guy, he made piles of money without having to bother with the stock market. Anyways, what's the difference between your method and encrypting the predictions? Don't they achieve the same thing? Why is encrypting BS?
The difference is when somebody and encrypts something they may be able to say it was meant to be interpreted a certain way. when something's written down plain and simple you have your answer if they're right or wrong.
So, suppose you encrypt a document AND also put a copy in a lock box.

Later you reveal the two identical documents.

You seem to be saying that one of the identical documents will be interpreted differently than the other identical document????

Not sure if you understand what encryption does.
Last edited by tadamsmar on Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.

columbia
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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by columbia » Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:06 pm

I think y’all might be giving this issue more thought than it deserves. ;)

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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:11 pm

sperry8 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:52 pm
steve321 wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:36 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:32 pm
WonderingDope wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:01 pm
Assuming Steve321 is sincere in his questions (I am beginning to have doubts), I would like to ask him:

What are your goals and why are you spending so much time and effort trying to find someone who can tell you how to "beat the markets?" Is the historical market return not good enough to make it where you want to go? Do you honestly not believe it when all of the good people of this forum tell you that beating the market is a very difficult thing to do and inevitably requires taking on more risk to do so?
I would like to hear these answers, too. I have noticed that every few days Steve321 writes a new post advocating yet another unorthodox investment idea that he has read about online. He seems intent on finding a way to beat the market. My advice to him would be to stop reading online investment articles and focus on investment fundamentals.
I suffer from anxiety and I am afraid of huge losses in my investments. Taleb shows that extreme events are possible and losses in the stock market can be much higher than the bell curve predicts. So I am looking for ways to manage my anxiety in this, including by researching serious methods of risk management.
Asset allocation is the way to manage your market anxiety. You need to have the proper AA so that your equity side can drop 50% and you're still OK with 'staying the course'. Find that AA - and your anxiety should lessen dramatically. Trying to time the market will only result in increased anxiety for you - since no proven method has been found.
But are you prepared for stocks to drop by almost 90% and bonds to drop by 50%, as happened during the Great Depression? I really wonder how many Bogleheads could do nothing through that if it happened again.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by Mr.BB » Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:17 pm

tadamsmar wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:05 pm
Mr.BB wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:44 pm
steve321 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:43 am
Mr.BB wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:36 am
tadamsmar wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:15 am


The guy has this experiment going where he "releases" encrypted short-term predictions and reveals them 6 months later. According to the TED talk.

The theory should allow short-term prediction of bubble crashes if it is true. Bubble formation is a bit longer term I think.
Why encrypt anything? Just have the specific predication written down, certified, sealed and put in a safety deposit box by a neutral party and then just reveal it at the proper time. Don't need to encrypt anything; a bunch of BS.
Hi BB, there was someone in the art business also called BB (Bernard Berenson), lucky guy, he made piles of money without having to bother with the stock market. Anyways, what's the difference between your method and encrypting the predictions? Don't they achieve the same thing? Why is encrypting BS?
The difference is when somebody and encrypts something they may be able to say it was meant to be interpreted a certain way. when something's written down plain and simple you have your answer if they're right or wrong.
So, suppose you encrypt a document AND also put a copy in a lock box.

Later you reveal the two identical documents.

You seem to be saying that one of the identical documents will be interpreted differently than the other identical document????

Not sure if you understand what encryption does.
I know exactly what encryption does. What I am saying is instead of all the trouble and possible various interpretations of encryption, just write out the dates and results of the upcoming market crashes under regulated supervision and put it away where it cannot be touched until the market actually reaches the 20% minimum or what ever number/date he is predicting. Not to hard to do.
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit."

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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by CPO_investor » Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:37 pm

I tried my hand at market timing back when I was a green investor. I made a lot of money on biotech’s, but lost virtually all of it because I didn’t get out in time. Also, I tried timing the broader market, getting out of the market because I thought a crash was “imminent”. In that time, the market went up 30%. If I was to do the math, I bet I cost myself a few hundred thousand dollars in lost compound interest due to this folly. The S&P 500 averages 10% - that’s pretty damn good. Even if the market crashes, you can almost guarantee that within 2-3 years it will have recovered based on past market crashes. The best strategy is to buy consistently and keep buying no matter what! 2008 is a textbook example of why this strategy works!

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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by tadamsmar » Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:09 pm

Mr.BB wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:17 pm
tadamsmar wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:05 pm
Mr.BB wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:44 pm
steve321 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:43 am
Mr.BB wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:36 am


Why encrypt anything? Just have the specific predication written down, certified, sealed and put in a safety deposit box by a neutral party and then just reveal it at the proper time. Don't need to encrypt anything; a bunch of BS.
Hi BB, there was someone in the art business also called BB (Bernard Berenson), lucky guy, he made piles of money without having to bother with the stock market. Anyways, what's the difference between your method and encrypting the predictions? Don't they achieve the same thing? Why is encrypting BS?
The difference is when somebody and encrypts something they may be able to say it was meant to be interpreted a certain way. when something's written down plain and simple you have your answer if they're right or wrong.
So, suppose you encrypt a document AND also put a copy in a lock box.

Later you reveal the two identical documents.

You seem to be saying that one of the identical documents will be interpreted differently than the other identical document????

Not sure if you understand what encryption does.
I know exactly what encryption does. What I am saying is instead of all the trouble and possible various interpretations of encryption, just write out the dates and results of the upcoming market crashes under regulated supervision and put it away where it cannot be touched until the market actually reaches the 20% minimum or what ever number/date he is predicting. Not to hard to do.
You lost me at "various interpretations of encryption". I am not sure if you have an audience for this stuff, but it ain't me.

And I am not even impressed with this elf with a social psychology theory. At most, he could be an advisor to an investment bank who would treat him as yet another elf.
Last edited by tadamsmar on Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:57 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by aspirit » Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:14 pm

Valuethinker wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:39 pm
aspirit wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:56 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:05 pm
onourway wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:59 am
Many people get famous for predicting a major market event. Once.
Bingo.

This reminds me of Alan Greenspan's famous 'irrational exuberance' talk back in 1996. He was sort of right, but his timeline was four years off, and even during the financial crisis of 2008-2009, the market never returned to 1996's levels.
I disagree. In 96 the sp500's top was about 600/614. All it did was rise from there, ...yet In 2009 during its downslide (07-09) due to housing failures & banking failures it crashed and bottomed to about 666. just sayin.. :?

I certainly agree with onourways comment of becoming famous w/1 event's predictions materializing. :happy
Over long enough periods Total Return matters.

Even given the very low yield of the S&P 500 in the late 1990s, there's 14 years x 2% x a bit of compounding so on a total return basis the S&P was quite a bit higher.

Balancing against that one would have had inflation, so the bottoms would be closer on a real returns basis ;-).

This is why the Japan numbers are so devastating because the Nikkei yielded less than 1% at the peak.
Great point I overlooked in my post above VT!!
Last edited by aspirit on Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by HomerJ » Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:26 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:11 pm
But are you prepared for stocks to drop by almost 90% and bonds to drop by 50%, as happened during the Great Depression? I really wonder how many Bogleheads could do nothing through that if it happened again.
Bonds didn't drop by 50% during the Great Depression.

Oh, maybe you mean corporate bonds. That may be true, I don't know. U.S. bonds did pretty well, especially since there was deflation, not inflation.

Bonds is the whole reason 4% withdrawals would have worked during the Great Depression. Anyone 100% stocks who was withdrawing 4% a year went bankrupt.
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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Wed Nov 07, 2018 7:29 pm

" Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge." -- Lao Tzu

“It is very hard to predict, especially the future.” -- Niels Bohr
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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by nisiprius » Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:26 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:11 pm
...But are you prepared for stocks to drop by almost 90% and bonds to drop by 50%, as happened during the Great Depression?...
Bonds didn't "drop by 50% during the Great Depression." Nothing remotely like that happened.

These are cumulative total return data, based on the 2015 Ibbotson SBBI Classic Yearbook data. If you invested $10,000 in bonds at the start of 1929, at no point from 1929 through 1945 inclusive would you ever have had less than $10,000. This is true whether or not you adjust for inflation. In fact, performance is better if you adjust for inflation (because during the Great Depression, there was deflation).

The red and blue lines represent nominal dollar data; the worst drawdown from a peak was -5.3%, for long-term government bonds during 1930.

The green and purple lines represent inflation-adjusted, real data; the worst drawdown from a peak was -18.5%, for intermediate-term government bonds over the two-year period 1940-1941 inclusive.

Image
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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by EyeYield » Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:02 pm

tadamsmar wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:42 am
EyeYield wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:08 am

Maybe you could help me out and point me to anywhere that he mentions he ever invested a dime of his own money. That would be pertinent.

Science and your brain is one thing, but your money and your brain is quite another.

I would be far more interested in how he behaves than in how he thinks - when in comes to money.

Thanks for any links.
First, making money based on a theory is not scientific proof of the theory.

Second, if you listened to the Ted talk, you will see he is doing something that could lead to a scientific hypothesis test of the theory that he can predict when "bubbles" (as he formally defines them) crash.
First, I didn’t say that.
Second, he didn’t say that.

He didn’t use the term could, maybe, if, possibly, might or any other qualifier that may be used to cast doubt.
He seemed quite sure that through his predictions we would never be surprised by a crises again.
If fact, the banner across the TED video read: How we can predict the next financial crisis.
"The stock market is a giant distraction from the business of investing." - Jack Bogle

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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by EyeYield » Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:19 pm

steve321 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:50 am
EyeYield wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:08 am

Maybe you could help me out and point me to anywhere that he mentions he ever invested a dime of his own money. That would bepertinent.

he says it here,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7jncWyx3I94
and adds that banks are using his forecasts, but does not go into details.
He said, paraphrasing, “during the last six months (this was in 2011) he and his collaborators were putting their money on the table and he has a growing pot where they are now doing the operational implementation, which is to build a portfolio to use the information to show how it can be implemented.”

Great, so how did that work out for them? Does he ever mention what is in that portfolio? Not in that video.
Did he ever follow up on the implementation from 2011?
Has there been any predictions since?
Does he have any experience investing at all?

The TED talk video was in 2013 and there was not any mention of of the implementation from 2011.

It’s 2018 now and this thread is titled “This man can predict when bubbles burst”, but there is no evidence that he can.

Maybe, after testing this theory for 100 years we can have some significant results, but in the meantime I will choose to ignore it.
"The stock market is a giant distraction from the business of investing." - Jack Bogle

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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:29 pm

nisiprius wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:26 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:11 pm
...But are you prepared for stocks to drop by almost 90% and bonds to drop by 50%, as happened during the Great Depression?...
Bonds didn't "drop by 50% during the Great Depression." Nothing remotely like that happened.

These are cumulative total return data, based on the 2015 Ibbotson SBBI Classic Yearbook data. If you invested $10,000 in bonds at the start of 1929, at no point from 1929 through 1945 inclusive would you ever have had less than $10,000. This is true whether or not you adjust for inflation. In fact, performance is better if you adjust for inflation (because during the Great Depression, there was deflation).

The red and blue lines represent nominal dollar data; the worst drawdown from a peak was -5.3%, for long-term government bonds during 1930.

The green and purple lines represent inflation-adjusted, real data; the worst drawdown from a peak was -18.5%, for intermediate-term government bonds over the two-year period 1940-1941 inclusive.

Image
thank you for your post. When I read that, I too thought, huh? That doesn't sound right. But I was too lazy and too tired to look it up (and I don't own a Ibbotson SBBI Classic Yearbook). Heck I don't even have my high school yearbook!

I appreciate the time you took to post this. Willthrill81 can you provide where you got your info from?
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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:58 pm

nisiprius wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:26 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:11 pm
...But are you prepared for stocks to drop by almost 90% and bonds to drop by 50%, as happened during the Great Depression?...
Bonds didn't "drop by 50% during the Great Depression." Nothing remotely like that happened.
I was mixing up the drawdown in bonds from the Great Depression with the 1970s stagflation.

Here's the real drawdown of 10 year Treasuries.
Image

So while stocks and bonds didn't both experience their worst real drawdowns at the same time, there's nothing I've seen that would prevent such an event from happening.

And the deepest drawdown of a 60/40 portfolio to date has been -62%. I don't think most here are prepared for that.
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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by indexlover » Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:33 pm

KlangFool wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:49 pm
OP,

I prepared for a market crash plus unemployment lasting 5 years. It could happen at any time. But, it won't matter to me. So, why do you need to rely on any prediction when you can be prepared instead?

KlangFool
Hi OP,

I believe you when you say you have anxiety. The simplest way to take care of it is as KlangFool explained. KlangFool has repeated his plan so many times. You should read all his posts. They are gems and they will help with your anxiety. Please do take the time. Good luck to you.

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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by celia » Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:16 pm

If he can predict the market, why is he still teaching? He should have put all his assets in the stock/fund that would grow the most at the best time to get a good price for it and sell at the best time to realize his gain.

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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by Valuethinker » Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:47 am

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:26 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:11 pm
But are you prepared for stocks to drop by almost 90% and bonds to drop by 50%, as happened during the Great Depression? I really wonder how many Bogleheads could do nothing through that if it happened again.
Bonds didn't drop by 50% during the Great Depression.

Oh, maybe you mean corporate bonds. That may be true, I don't know. U.S. bonds did pretty well, especially since there was deflation, not inflation.

Bonds is the whole reason 4% withdrawals would have worked during the Great Depression. Anyone 100% stocks who was withdrawing 4% a year went bankrupt.
Thank you for saying that!

It would have been true of Japan since 1990, as well.

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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by Valuethinker » Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:49 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:58 pm
nisiprius wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:26 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:11 pm
...But are you prepared for stocks to drop by almost 90% and bonds to drop by 50%, as happened during the Great Depression?...
Bonds didn't "drop by 50% during the Great Depression." Nothing remotely like that happened.
I was mixing up the drawdown in bonds from the Great Depression with the 1970s stagflation.

Here's the real drawdown of 10 year Treasuries.
Image

So while stocks and bonds didn't both experience their worst real drawdowns at the same time, there's nothing I've seen that would prevent such an event from happening.

And the deepest drawdown of a 60/40 portfolio to date has been -62%. I don't think most here are prepared for that.
There's something very strange about that graph.

Are you sure it's not for stocks?

Consider 2008 -09. There's no way US Treasuries dropped 10% (20% in real terms) in that time?

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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by longinvest » Thu Nov 08, 2018 7:56 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:49 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:58 pm
nisiprius wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:26 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:11 pm
...But are you prepared for stocks to drop by almost 90% and bonds to drop by 50%, as happened during the Great Depression?...
Bonds didn't "drop by 50% during the Great Depression." Nothing remotely like that happened.
I was mixing up the drawdown in bonds from the Great Depression with the 1970s stagflation.

Here's the real drawdown of 10 year Treasuries.
Image

So while stocks and bonds didn't both experience their worst real drawdowns at the same time, there's nothing I've seen that would prevent such an event from happening.

And the deepest drawdown of a 60/40 portfolio to date has been -62%. I don't think most here are prepared for that.
There's something very strange about that graph.

Are you sure it's not for stocks?

Consider 2008 -09. There's no way US Treasuries dropped 10% (20% in real terms) in that time?
We're often shown this graph or similar ones. But, we're almost never told the story that goes with it. Here it goes.

First, the Damodaran database is probably charting a synthetic bond fund containing a single 10-year Treasury held for one year, sold and replaced by a new 10-year Treasury. The average duration of such a fund would place it between that of an intermediate-term bond fund and long-term bond fund. Note that the typical bond fund held by Bogleheads (e.g. total-market bond index fund) isn't concentrated on a single constant maturity, but diversified across a wide range of maturities, with a relatively high weighting of short-term bonds, resulting in a low 5 to 6 years of average duration, much lower than the duration of a concentrated single 10-year Treasury synthetic fund. In other words, Damodaran's bonds aren't representative of a typical Boglehead bond allocation.

Second, the drawdown relative to inflation happened in the 1940-1952 period due to the government not allowing bond prices to drop (e.g. imposing low yields across the yield curve) when inflation ran up to almost 20% in some years. A typical Bogleheads bond fund would still have suffered a significant loss of approximately 35% relative to inflation during this period. But, a bond investor could theoretically have sold his bonds at inflated prices to avoid most of the harm, as he knew about the problem of leaving his money into low-yield bonds in a high-inflation era. The problem, though, was to find another place to put his money... Here's a longer explanation I wrote a while ago:
longinvest wrote:
Sat Dec 09, 2017 7:39 pm
Nedsaid,

First, for investors really worried about inflation, there now exist inflation-indexed bonds (TIPS) and inflation-indexed cash investments (I-Bonds).

Second, I think it's important to deconstruct an investment myth: that nominal bonds are vulnerable to inflation. Things are not as simple as a quick glimpse at an inflation-adjusted growth chart could lead one to think. One has to go beyond the chart and understand what happened in the real world and the choices a bond investor could have made at the time.
nedsaid wrote:
Sat Dec 09, 2017 4:31 pm
Inflation spikes are tough on most things except for maybe commodities. Bond investors, according to Bill Bernstein, lost about 50% of purchasing power from about 1946-1982.
Actually, the only worrisome bond losses happened in the 1940s and early 1950s, because interest rates were subject to price controls and interest rate pegging* **. In other words, during a period when inflation went, sometime, near 20%, the government forced all interest rates (short-term to long-term) to remain low near 2% to 3%. During this period, a 10-year ladder-like bond fund (selling its bonds on the market 1 year prior to maturity) would have lost almost 35%, in inflation-adjusted terms. And that was it. It was a one-time government-caused loss of purchase power.

* Interest Rate Controls: The United States in the 1940s on JSTOR
** Before the Accord: US Monetary - Fiscal Policy 1945 -1951

Losses weren't due to free bond market pricing. The bond market wasn't allowed to set prices normally by devaluing bonds (due to high inflation) which would have caused yields to immediately spike. Losses were due to deliberate government action to keep bond prices high (yields low). But, here's the important point: The bond investor was perfectly aware of the situation at the time. He knew that money left into bonds was losing purchase power. He had the ability to act. The bond investor could have accepted the government's offer to buy back his bonds at a 2% to 3% yield to maturity in a high-inflation environment and invest his money elsewhere. The bond investor didn't have to accept low yields in a high-inflation environment. Of course, the question was: Where to invest it? Cash had lower yields than bonds, so it was no refuge. Private gold possession was outlawed since 1934. I guess that left little choice other than to invest the money into real estate and stocks.

Here's a chart I've shown, recently, in another thread:
longinvest wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:15 am
Here's a historical inflation-adjusted bond total-return chart for 1940 to 1985:
Image
(Source data for constructing the chart: VPW backtesting spreadsheet)

We see the loss of purchase power in the 1940s, due to yields significantly trailing inflation. We also see a few years dip, in the late 1970s, when inflation was raging up and yields were following up. As expected, it took a few years lag for the impact of higher yields to be fully reflected into total returns; nothing surprising, here. What's actually surprising is how yields kept a big spread over trailing inflation afterwards, explaining a gain equivalent to the losses of the 1940s in a few years, in the early 1980s. My point is that both events are completely unrelated. There was a government-imposed real loss in the 1940s. In the 1980s, bond investors became very demanding for higher yields.
The government finally allowed the market to price bonds normally since 1952. If we look at the above chart starting in 1952, we see that nominal bonds did preserve their value on a total-return basis, in inflation-adjusted terms, and even gained additional purchase power over inflation. There was a dip in the second half of the 1970s, due to bond yields going continuously up, adjusting for inflation. As bond math tells us, this was normal. The higher yields explain the surge in total returns that followed.

In the 1970s, bonds actually did better than stocks; they were less volatile and yet delivered almost as much in returns. Here's a chart I've shown in another thread that makes this pretty obvious:
longinvest wrote:
Fri Aug 26, 2016 8:46 am
Just for reference, here's a total-return chart I made, on another thread, to show the comparative growth of an intermediate-duration ladder-like bond fund and the S&P 500 in the worst high-inflation part of the 1970s to mid-1980s:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=198104#p3027801
Image

By looking at a nominal chart, we can clearly see that all along, the bond fund had positive annual total returns. The S&P 500 (with dividends reinvested), on the other hand, did as it always does, it fluctuated. In 1973-1975, it had a big down fluctuation, losing 30% while inflation was going up 20%, for example.

We're almost never shown such charts. Usually, the nominal fund returns are combined with the impact of inflation and we're shown inflation-adjusted charts, leading to the impression that bonds are volatile. This impression is compounded, of course, when long-term bonds (which are volatile) are used to represent bond returns.

People invested in intermediate bonds, during the above period, just saw an increasing portfolio balance on their annual statements, unlike stock investors who didn't fare much better, in the end, over that period.
In summary, I think that nominal bonds are way less risky than often portrayed. What's actually risky, for nominal bond investors, isn't inflation; it's to leave money into nominal bonds when their yields are way below current inflation... assuming that one knows of a better place where to put the money, of course...
Last edited by longinvest on Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by WanderingDoc » Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:05 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:05 pm
onourway wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:59 am
Many people get famous for predicting a major market event. Once.
Bingo. Being 1 for 1, 2 for 2, even 3 for 3 isn't a big deal. Being 26 for 26 is a different story.

Remember that a broken clock is right twice a day. Over at Zerohedge, they've predicted 18 of the last two recessions.
onourway wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:59 am
The major problem is that you can be right that the bubble should burst. But it can take years for reality to catch up with you.
This reminds me of Alan Greenspan's famous 'irrational exuberance' talk back in 1996. He was sort of right, but his timeline was four years off, and even during the financial crisis of 2008-2009, the market never returned to 1996's levels.

Even though I'm a trend follower, I don't follow guru's predictions. My system is 100% rules-based and entirely based on objective data.
You don't even need to be 2 for 2. Bet all your chips on that 1 for 1 (5-10:1 margin) on your short of the market or what have you, and you are financially free/retired. You aren't impressed by 3 grand slams? One is impressive enough.

As an example, Ray Dalio had become successful enough until he lost nearly everything, sadly having to let his very last employee go. He didn't throw in the towel, he stuck to his guns and loving and behold, he became worth many billions of dollars. He believed he could do better than the market - and boy oh boy he did.

Generally in life, you only need to be right once in regards to high stakes financial stuff, and you're set. Get it right once, and you may stop right there. Unless of course, slugging away for 40 years as a hamster-on-a-wheel to then live on 70% of what you just got by on is preferable. Not tongue in cheek, totally serious.
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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by PaulF » Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:19 am

Well, I tried to chase down the source of those data. The graph Will posted seems to be from here: http://proactiveadvisormagazine.com/risks-of-bonds/, and they do indicate that it is for 10-year Treasuries. The legend on the graph says the original source of the data is Aswath Damodaran at NYU's Stern School of Business. http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/Ne ... /data.html

I did not look too hard, but I only saw annual data on that site, so it is not clear how you could construct that graph (which seems to have finer timesteps). Here is a snippet of the relevant underlying data. According to Damodaran, there was a ~11% loss in 2009, but it seems only fair to point out this was after gains of 10% and 20% in the previous two years:

Code: Select all

	Annual Returns on Investments in		
Year	S&P 500 (includes dividends)	3-month T.Bill	Return on 10-year T. Bond
2007	5.48%	4.64%	10.21%
2008	-36.55%	1.59%	20.10%
2009	25.94%	0.14%	-11.12%
2010	14.82%	0.13%	8.46%
2011	2.10%	0.03%	16.04%
The ~10% loss is also reflected in Portfolio Visualizer for IEF, which is nominally a 7-10 year Treasury fund (current duration 7.5 years), and VUSTX, which has a longer duration of ~17 years currently. PV reports a max drawdown of -6.5% for the former, and -12% for the latter, so ~10% for the 10-year seems reasonable.

I personally was very happy to be holding mostly intermediate Treasuries as my bond holding during that turbulent time. My takeaway is that max drawdown is not, perhaps, the all-important metric.
Last edited by PaulF on Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:32 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by AlphaLess » Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:21 am

steve321 wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:55 am
Contrary to Fama's postulate that bubbles do not exist because of EMH, Didier Sornette shows that they do, and he apparently can predict when they burst (in this video he says he predicted the time the stock market crashed in China):
https://www.ted.com/talks/didier_sornet ... anguage=en
I can predict when bubbles burst as well. It is precisely at the time when you take a long and sharp needle, and apply sufficient pressure on the surface of the bubble. At that point, the bubble bursts. True story, bro.
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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by nisiprius » Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:21 am

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:26 pm
...Bonds didn't drop by 50% during the Great Depression. Oh, maybe you mean corporate bonds. That may be true, I don't know.
No. There wasn't any huge difference in the behavior of Treasuries and corporates. I didn't want to clutter the chart too much, and corporates just did better than Treasuries in just about every way, and they did well enough that I thought I'd better use a logarithmic axis, and Excel is just terrible on logarithmic axes, but... OK... here goes.

Image
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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by columbia » Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:26 am

Trying to predict the future reminds me of conversation I had with a friend in 1996. I mentioned that if this online shopping thing (e-commerce hadn’t yet been coined) is going to take off, it seemed like FedEx, Oracle and Cisco would be good investments. Mind you, I had just entered the market with my first 403b and had ZERO idea of how one would buy individual stocks (and certainly no cash to do so).

Of course....I was correct in that call (and all 3 have outperformed the SP500 since then)

Of course....there’s absolutely no reason to believe that I was assured of being correct.

Reading the tea leaves is a waste of time. Stop trying to predict the market and just keep buying it.

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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by pennylane » Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:30 am

Even a broken clock is right twice a day

Make enough predictions, you're bound to get something right.

These people scream from the mountain top when their speculations are right.

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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by WonderingDope » Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:47 am

WanderingDoc wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:05 am
Generally in life, you only need to be right once in regards to high stakes financial stuff, and you're set. Get it right once, and you may stop right there. Unless of course, slugging away for 40 years as a hamster-on-a-wheel to then live on 70% of what you just got by on is preferable. Not tongue in cheek, totally serious.
Those shmucks slugging away like hamsters on a wheel do the heavy lifting to keep the country running and create the value that enables a tiny fraction of the population to "be right once" and become fabulously wealthy (or fabulously poor). In my opinion, being right once is not a very good strategy.

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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by sperry8 » Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:23 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:11 pm
sperry8 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:52 pm
steve321 wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:36 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:32 pm
WonderingDope wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:01 pm
Assuming Steve321 is sincere in his questions (I am beginning to have doubts), I would like to ask him:

What are your goals and why are you spending so much time and effort trying to find someone who can tell you how to "beat the markets?" Is the historical market return not good enough to make it where you want to go? Do you honestly not believe it when all of the good people of this forum tell you that beating the market is a very difficult thing to do and inevitably requires taking on more risk to do so?
I would like to hear these answers, too. I have noticed that every few days Steve321 writes a new post advocating yet another unorthodox investment idea that he has read about online. He seems intent on finding a way to beat the market. My advice to him would be to stop reading online investment articles and focus on investment fundamentals.
I suffer from anxiety and I am afraid of huge losses in my investments. Taleb shows that extreme events are possible and losses in the stock market can be much higher than the bell curve predicts. So I am looking for ways to manage my anxiety in this, including by researching serious methods of risk management.
Asset allocation is the way to manage your market anxiety. You need to have the proper AA so that your equity side can drop 50% and you're still OK with 'staying the course'. Find that AA - and your anxiety should lessen dramatically. Trying to time the market will only result in increased anxiety for you - since no proven method has been found.
But are you prepared for stocks to drop by almost 90% and bonds to drop by 50%, as happened during the Great Depression? I really wonder how many Bogleheads could do nothing through that if it happened again.
That's an absurdity to me. If you set your AA to protect against a black swan event that rare you will have to take no risk and thus will have no upside. If your fear is of such a black swan event happening, the stock market is not for you. I don't think it is wise to attempt to protect yourself against 6 standard deviation black swan events - you'll simply end up with money under a mattress and never get where you're trying to go.
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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:35 pm

sperry8 wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:23 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:11 pm
sperry8 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:52 pm
steve321 wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:36 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:32 pm


I would like to hear these answers, too. I have noticed that every few days Steve321 writes a new post advocating yet another unorthodox investment idea that he has read about online. He seems intent on finding a way to beat the market. My advice to him would be to stop reading online investment articles and focus on investment fundamentals.
I suffer from anxiety and I am afraid of huge losses in my investments. Taleb shows that extreme events are possible and losses in the stock market can be much higher than the bell curve predicts. So I am looking for ways to manage my anxiety in this, including by researching serious methods of risk management.
Asset allocation is the way to manage your market anxiety. You need to have the proper AA so that your equity side can drop 50% and you're still OK with 'staying the course'. Find that AA - and your anxiety should lessen dramatically. Trying to time the market will only result in increased anxiety for you - since no proven method has been found.
But are you prepared for stocks to drop by almost 90% and bonds to drop by 50%, as happened during the Great Depression? I really wonder how many Bogleheads could do nothing through that if it happened again.
That's an absurdity to me. If you set your AA to protect against a black swan event that rare you will have to take no risk and thus will have no upside. If your fear is of such a black swan event happening, the stock market is not for you. I don't think it is wise to attempt to protect yourself against 6 standard deviation black swan events - you'll simply end up with money under a mattress and never get where you're trying to go.
I'm somewhat inclined to agree, but we don't need to kid ourselves or others into thinking that 2008-2009, for instance, was as bad as it can get. In the past 100 years, U.S. stocks and bonds as have fared far worst. And considering that a Great Depression (hammered stocks very hard) or 1970s stagflation (hammered bonds hard) both happened within the last 90 years, I don't think we should form our strategies under the assumption that those types of events will never happen again. That seems absurd to me.

IMHO, this is the biggest problem with the buy-and-hold mantra. Should a 'black swan' event occur, adherents could be decimated.
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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by tadamsmar » Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:55 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:35 pm

I'm somewhat inclined to agree, but we don't need to kid ourselves or others into thinking that 2008-2009, for instance, was as bad as it can get. In the past 100 years, U.S. stocks and bonds as have fared far worst. And considering that a Great Depression (hammered stocks very hard) or 1970s stagflation (hammered bonds hard) both happened within the last 90 years, I don't think we should form our strategies under the assumption that those types of events will never happen again. That seems absurd to me.

IMHO, this is the biggest problem with the buy-and-hold mantra. Should a 'black swan' event occur, adherents could be decimated.
Decimate means lose 10%. Probably not what you meant?

At the typical "safe" withdrawal rates, the Great Depression and the 1970s stagflation would cause a bit of belt-tightening for a retiree, but you might run out of money if you needed a good bit of long-term care I guess.

I suppose a black swan would be even worst? If stocks and bonds perform badly enough then that probably implies a failed economy and perhaps even a failed system. The Russian stock market and even property ownership rules failed in 1919. So, even owning stuff other than stock and bonds can fail you in a black swan event.

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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:09 pm

tadamsmar wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:55 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:35 pm

I'm somewhat inclined to agree, but we don't need to kid ourselves or others into thinking that 2008-2009, for instance, was as bad as it can get. In the past 100 years, U.S. stocks and bonds as have fared far worst. And considering that a Great Depression (hammered stocks very hard) or 1970s stagflation (hammered bonds hard) both happened within the last 90 years, I don't think we should form our strategies under the assumption that those types of events will never happen again. That seems absurd to me.

IMHO, this is the biggest problem with the buy-and-hold mantra. Should a 'black swan' event occur, adherents could be decimated.
Decimate means lose 10%. Probably not what you meant?
That is one of the definitions of the term. I was using another definition of the word: "to reduce drastically especially in number."
tadamsmar wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:55 pm
I suppose a black swan would be even worst? If stocks and bonds perform badly enough then that probably implies a failed economy and perhaps even a failed system. The Russian stock market and even property ownership rules failed in 1919. So, even owning stuff other than stock and bonds can fail you in a black swan event.
We cannot even really refer to a Great Depression or stagflation event as a 'black swan' because they've already occurred. We know that they can occur because they have occurred. And yes, we know that stock markets can literally go to zero because they have in multiple cases.
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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by Valuethinker » Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:40 pm

longinvest wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 7:56 am
Valuethinker wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:49 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:58 pm
nisiprius wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:26 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:11 pm
...But are you prepared for stocks to drop by almost 90% and bonds to drop by 50%, as happened during the Great Depression?...
Bonds didn't "drop by 50% during the Great Depression." Nothing remotely like that happened.
I was mixing up the drawdown in bonds from the Great Depression with the 1970s stagflation.

Here's the real drawdown of 10 year Treasuries.
Image

So while stocks and bonds didn't both experience their worst real drawdowns at the same time, there's nothing I've seen that would prevent such an event from happening.

And the deepest drawdown of a 60/40 portfolio to date has been -62%. I don't think most here are prepared for that.
There's something very strange about that graph.

Are you sure it's not for stocks?

Consider 2008 -09. There's no way US Treasuries dropped 10% (20% in real terms) in that time?
We're often shown this graph or similar ones. But, we're almost never told the story that goes with it. Here it goes.

First, the Damodaran database is probably charting a synthetic bond fund containing a single 10-year Treasury held for one year, sold and replaced by a new 10-year Treasury. The average duration of such a fund would place it between that of an intermediate-term bond fund and long-term bond fund. Note that the typical bond fund held by Bogleheads (e.g. total-market bond index fund) isn't concentrated on a single constant maturity, but diversified across a wide range of maturities, with a relatively high weighting of short-term bonds, resulting in a low 5 to 6 years of average duration, much lower than the duration of a concentrated single 10-year Treasury synthetic fund. In other words, Damodaran's bonds aren't representative of a typical Boglehead bond allocation.

Second, the drawdown relative to inflation happened in the 1940-1952 period due to the government not allowing bond prices to drop (e.g. imposing low yields across the yield curve) when inflation ran up to almost 20% in some years. A typical Bogleheads bond fund would still have suffered a significant loss of approximately 35% relative to inflation during this period. But, a bond investor could theoretically have sold his bonds at inflated prices to avoid most of the harm, as he knew about the problem of leaving his money into low-yield bonds in a high-inflation era. The problem, though, was to find another place to put his money... Here's a longer explanation I wrote a while ago:

Thank you for that explanation.

It still just seems weird. AFAICR the 10 year US Treasury finished *up* by 31-Dec-2008 v. 31-Dec-2007. And, again, 30-Dec-2009 on 2008.

Yields of the 10 year US benchmark Treasury bond *fell* over that year, not rose. Thus you had a positive capital return on the bond, and a coupon of c. 4%.

Have to go back to Damodaran and see what he has done.

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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by steve321 » Sat Nov 10, 2018 2:25 am

celia wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:16 pm
If he can predict the market, why is he still teaching?
Why is Warren Buffett still working (and until recently he was giving a yearly class to students)? Why is Jack Bogle still writing books and attending Bogleheads meetings? Why do most music conductors never retire? etc
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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by WanderingDoc » Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:27 am

WonderingDope wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:47 am
WanderingDoc wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:05 am
Generally in life, you only need to be right once in regards to high stakes financial stuff, and you're set. Get it right once, and you may stop right there. Unless of course, slugging away for 40 years as a hamster-on-a-wheel to then live on 70% of what you just got by on is preferable. Not tongue in cheek, totally serious.
Those shmucks slugging away like hamsters on a wheel do the heavy lifting to keep the country running and create the value that enables a tiny fraction of the population to "be right once" and become fabulously wealthy (or fabulously poor). In my opinion, being right once is not a very good strategy.
I don't disagree with the first part of your statement. That said, there is no nobility is "doing the heavy lifting". Do you honestly think that people work for decades on behalf of their society or country? Come on.
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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by willthrill81 » Sat Nov 10, 2018 10:59 am

steve321 wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 2:25 am
celia wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:16 pm
If he can predict the market, why is he still teaching?
Why is Warren Buffett still working (and until recently he was giving a yearly class to students)? Why is Jack Bogle still writing books and attending Bogleheads meetings? Why do most music conductors never retire? etc
You clearly seem to have already made up your mind to follow this fellow. If so, why are you asking others for their views?
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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by nisiprius » Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:16 am

WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:27 am
...Do you honestly think that people work for decades on behalf of their society or country? Come on...
Yes. I do. I honestly think that. I really do. Some people.
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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by EyeYield » Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:26 am

WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:27 am
WonderingDope wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:47 am
WanderingDoc wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:05 am
Generally in life, you only need to be born right once in regards to high stakes financial stuff, and you're set. Get it right once, and you may stop right there. Unless of course, slugging away for 40 years as a hamster-on-a-wheel to then live on 70% of what you just got by on is preferable. Not tongue in cheek, totally serious.
Those shmucks slugging away like hamsters on a wheel do the heavy lifting to keep the country running and create the value that enables a tiny fraction of the population to "be right once" and become fabulously wealthy (or fabulously poor). In my opinion, being right once is not a very good strategy.
I don't disagree with the first part of your statement. That said, there is no nobility is "doing the heavy lifting". Do you honestly think that people work for decades on behalf of their society or country? Come on.
There is no royalty in It either. I fixed your quote for you.
"The stock market is a giant distraction from the business of investing." - Jack Bogle

KlangFool
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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by KlangFool » Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:32 am

nisiprius wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:16 am
WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:27 am
...Do you honestly think that people work for decades on behalf of their society or country? Come on...
Yes. I do. I honestly think that. I really do. Some people.
+1,000.

The most famous member of my family died of abject poverty. His words are still read by millions of people after thousands of years.

KlangFool

TropikThunder
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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by TropikThunder » Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:55 am

WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:27 am
Do you honestly think that people work for decades on behalf of their society or country? Come on.
Aren’t you in the military? And you’re mocking people who work on the behalf of their country? On Veterans Day weekend?

Valuethinker
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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by Valuethinker » Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:18 pm

nisiprius wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:16 am
WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:27 am
...Do you honestly think that people work for decades on behalf of their society or country? Come on...
Yes. I do. I honestly think that. I really do. Some people.
In fact the economic system requires it. All economic systems.

In 18th c Britain very few were idle lords. And plenty of those got killed in the army or navy.

Valuethinker
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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by Valuethinker » Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:20 pm

TropikThunder wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:55 am
WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:27 am
Do you honestly think that people work for decades on behalf of their society or country? Come on.
Aren’t you in the military? And you’re mocking people who work on the behalf of their country? On Veterans Day weekend?
I don't think any of us can figure out whether wandering doc is for real or not.

His sentiments about speculation are very much those of a late stage bull market. Remember the Morgan Stanley ad with the truck driver and the island?

columbia
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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by columbia » Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:26 pm

Valuethinker wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:20 pm
TropikThunder wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:55 am
WanderingDoc wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:27 am
Do you honestly think that people work for decades on behalf of their society or country? Come on.
Aren’t you in the military? And you’re mocking people who work on the behalf of their country? On Veterans Day weekend?
I don't think any of us can figure out whether wandering doc is for real or not.

His sentiments about speculation are very much those of a late stage bull market. Remember the Morgan Stanley ad with the truck driver and the island?

I don’t think I had a TV, when that was airing - but found that ad and it was exactly as I guessed.

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prudent
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Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Post by prudent » Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:59 pm

Topic is locked - everything useful that can be said has been said, and is now derailed.

Locked