Market decline in 2019 ?

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Mark2614
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Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by Mark2614 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:45 am

Most people believe we are in a bubble and will see a big market decline (anywhere from 20-50%) soon. A lot of "experts" believe this could be in 2019. Most people on this forum probably also believe a significant market decline will probably come eventually.

The Bogleheads philosophy is "stay the course." But after 10 years of market rallys -- where do we draw the line? Is anyone here switching from equities to cash in hopes to avoid a big market decline in the next year or two?

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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by bloom2708 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:46 am

Nope.

The ENTIRE point of this site is to not do what you are suggesting. Start at the "Getting Started" page.

Review the 10 principles of being a Boglehead.

Thanks.
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GoldStar
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by GoldStar » Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:50 am

A lot of experts thought it would happen in 2017..... and 2016 ... and 2015....

Some folks pulled out of the market during those years and are now kicking themselves (some recent folks have posted such here).

Nobody knows - best to stay the course.

livesoft
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by livesoft » Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:50 am

Mark2614 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:45 am
Most people believe we are in a bubble and will see a big market decline (anywhere from 20-50%) soon.
Just because you typed that in does not make it true. I do not believe that "Most people believe ..." what you said they are supposed to believe. Sure, some people believe that probably, but not "Most people ...."

There are people who have switched to cash and announced it. Let's see if we can find a thread:
1. viewtopic.php?t=203792

2 viewtopic.php?t=209746

3. viewtopic.php?t=220363
Last edited by livesoft on Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Ron Scott
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by Ron Scott » Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:52 am

Mark2614 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:45 am
Most people believe we are in a bubble and will see a big market decline (anywhere from 20-50%) soon. A lot of "experts" believe this could be in 2019. Most people on this forum probably also believe a significant market decline will probably come eventually.

The Bogleheads philosophy is "stay the course." But after 10 years of market rallys -- where do we draw the line? Is anyone here switching from equities to cash in hopes to avoid a big market decline in the next year or two?
There is no reason not to take your nervousness seriously and rethink your asset allocation. If that's where you're at, now is probably a good time to do so.

I do not plan to change, or rebalance in the future, although I might cheat and buy some more equities in a big drop...
Retirement is a game best played by those prepared for more volatility in the future than has been seen in the past. Preparing for financial challenges is more fruitful than trying to predict them.

Dottie57
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by Dottie57 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:54 am

I know there will be a bear market ........ sometime. I have a good asset allocation for me.
Last edited by Dottie57 on Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:06 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Carlos Danger
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by Carlos Danger » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:01 am

Maybe. Maybe not. I'm not selling anything even if it gets to the point where I believe the storm is on the horizon because I'm comfortable with our asset allocation, but when the next bear market comes, I'll engage in "market timing" by tightening up my consumer spending so I can invest more while prices are declining and multiples are low.

MichCPA
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by MichCPA » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:05 am

Mark2614 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:45 am
.... Most people on this forum probably also believe a significant market decline will probably come eventually. ...
I can do them one better. I guarantee a significant decline will happen eventually!

When betting against the market you have to be right about it going down and right about the timing of it going down. Keep in mind that some people moved to cash in late 2016 using your logic. How is that working out? Staying out for two years will cost you on average 14.50%.

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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by Fallible » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:13 am

Mark2614 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:45 am
...
The Bogleheads philosophy is "stay the course." But after 10 years of market rallys -- where do we draw the line? Is anyone here switching from equities to cash in hopes to avoid a big market decline in the next year or two?
The line is your personal risk tolerance, which is decided on when setting an asset allocation, mainly by asking how much you can afford to lose in a downturn before you'll need the money. If the tolerance was misjudged then, or if it has changed (which risk tolerance often does), it may be time to lower equities.
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:29 am

Mark2614 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:45 am
Most people believe we are in a bubble and will see a big market decline (anywhere from 20-50%) soon. A lot of "experts" believe this could be in 2019. Most people on this forum probably also believe a significant market decline will probably come eventually.

The Bogleheads philosophy is "stay the course." But after 10 years of market rallys -- where do we draw the line? Is anyone here switching from equities to cash in hopes to avoid a big market decline in the next year or two?
"Most people"? Have you taken a statistically accurate random sampling of the general population? If so, please share the results of your research.

Does Most people mean "more than half"? If so, is there any difference between 51% and 99% of people "believe we are in a bubble and will see a big market decline (anywhere from 20-50%) soon"? Can 51% be wrong about their "belief"? Can 99%? Yes and yes.

There's an old saying that economists should only predict what or when but never both. Think about that for a moment.
There's another saying (by a prominent economist by the name of Paul Samuelson) that "The stock market has predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions". https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Paul_Samuelson Think about that for a moment.

Better yet, look at what the forecasters, predictors, so-called experts have said (vs. what the reality has shown):
https://www.etf.com/sections/index-inve ... nopaging=1
https://www.etf.com/sections/index-inve ... nopaging=1
https://www.google.com/search?q=larry+s ... fox-b-1-ab

The predictors haven't fared too well. As Warren Buffett has said “We have long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good.”

Jack Bogle has said "Nobody knows nuthin". Believe him.
"Invest we must." -- Jack Bogle | “The purpose of investing is not to simply optimise returns and make yourself rich. The purpose is not to die poor.” -- William Bernstein

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Toons
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by Toons » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:31 am

Stay Invested For Life
Enjoy The Ride.
:happy
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by KyleAAA » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:32 am

Most people believe we're in a bubble? I think very few people believe that. I would buy that most people believe valuations are on the high end, but "bubble" is a loaded term and I just don't see it. And yeah, the market will drop 20-50% at some point. But since nobody knows when that will be, it's best to stay the course. I personally don't see any reason the market would collapse next year based on recent economic data absent some sort of unpredictable shock to the system. But that's the point, shocks are unpredictable. If you are nervous about a crash, it's a strong indicator you are investing beyond your risk tolerance and should probably own more bonds on an on-going basis.

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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by ReformedSpender » Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:08 pm

Did the experts also let you know, not only has the S&P 500 never dropped in the year after midterm elections since the 1946 cycle, but it has climbed 15% on average regardless of which political party won or lost control of Congress?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/midterms-a ... 1538645400

:beer
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by mptfan » Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:15 pm

Mark2614 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:45 am
Most people believe we are in a bubble and will see a big market decline (anywhere from 20-50%) soon.
Really? How do you know what most people believe?

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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by ThrustVectoring » Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:18 pm

I put 100% of the money that I can afford to never see again into equities, and I sleep well at night. A market decline in 2019 just means that I get to purchase stocks cheaper :twisted:

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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by lostdog » Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:30 pm

A lot of these posts are popping up lately.

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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by Smoke » Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:49 pm

Mark2614 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:45 am
Most people believe we are in a bubble and will see a big market decline (anywhere from 20-50%) soon. A lot of "experts" believe this could be in 2019. Most people on this forum probably also believe a significant market decline will probably come eventually.

The Bogleheads philosophy is "stay the course." But after 10 years of market rallys -- where do we draw the line? Is anyone here switching from equities to cash in hopes to avoid a big market decline in the next year or two?
VTI over 50% decline,
https://prnt.sc/l3og9f
Only allocate monies that can wait till the recovery time frame of such investments.

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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by 220volt » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:02 pm

Mark2614 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:45 am
Most people believe we are in a bubble and will see a big market decline (anywhere from 20-50%) soon. A lot of "experts" believe this could be in 2019. Most people on this forum probably also believe a significant market decline will probably come eventually.

The Bogleheads philosophy is "stay the course." But after 10 years of market rallys -- where do we draw the line? Is anyone here switching from equities to cash in hopes to avoid a big market decline in the next year or two?
Bull markets do not die of old age, but euphoria. And if the majority thinks we're in the bubble, that's hardy euphoric.
"If I had only followed the advice of financial analysts in 2008, I'd have a million dollars today, provided I started with a hundred million dollars" - Jon Stewart

TheDDC
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by TheDDC » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:06 pm

Mark2614 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:45 am
Most people believe we are in a bubble and will see a big market decline (anywhere from 20-50%) soon. A lot of "experts" believe this could be in 2019. Most people on this forum probably also believe a significant market decline will probably come eventually.

The Bogleheads philosophy is "stay the course." But after 10 years of market rallys -- where do we draw the line? Is anyone here switching from equities to cash in hopes to avoid a big market decline in the next year or two?
No. There's no line to draw. I am adding more cash to my portfolio, but only because my emergency fund has been low for a bit. I am not a fan bonds. I am continuing my same rate of contribution to all investment accounts, in which I am 100% equities. If the market dips, that's what we BHs call a tremendous buying opportunity. We're already seeing it happen in international. A full 30 years of market increases, despite being unprecedented, is not the best thing for the investor. You need to price your portfolio for downs and ups.

-TheDDC

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JoMoney
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by JoMoney » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:09 pm

220volt wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:02 pm
Mark2614 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:45 am
Most people believe we are in a bubble and will see a big market decline (anywhere from 20-50%) soon. A lot of "experts" believe this could be in 2019. Most people on this forum probably also believe a significant market decline will probably come eventually.

The Bogleheads philosophy is "stay the course." But after 10 years of market rallys -- where do we draw the line? Is anyone here switching from equities to cash in hopes to avoid a big market decline in the next year or two?
Bull markets do not die of old age, but euphoria. And if the majority thinks we're in the bubble, that's hardy euphoric.
That's exactly what I was thinking. If it was true, that "Most people believe we are in a bubble...", it actually lends more credence to the idea that we are NOT in a bubble.

That said, stocks and bonds are highly priced relative to historical 'norms', and rising interest rates should discount assets owned at current prices (but with a higher future expected return)...
Personally, I don't think we're in a bubble with unreasonably frothy expectations on the future, but I would not be surprised if interest rates went up.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by markcoop » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:12 pm

I do believe that when valuations are on the high end, it is compelling to want to do something. I have even wondered if I would prefer a more dynamic asset allocation that would lower equity exposure when in such a period and potentially jump back in after such a period. I'm talking about going from 60% equity to something like 50% equity. To me a big jump, but certainly not everything. I just don't know how to do know when the valuation is high enough or low enough. So what I have done is nibble a little bit. Since my target is 60%, I allow myself a 10% buffer to act upon valuation levels. Over the past couple of years I have lowered my equity exposure slightly. I actually am at 50% now. If the market keeps going up, I still feel good about things (50% of my portfolio is growing), if the market goes down, I'm feeling smart and will probably slowly go back to 60%. If the market never goes down, I probably will just stay at 50% and be ok with it since I will meet my financial goals with an ever increasing market. Does this 10% or so AA modifications make me a market timer? I guess so, but I'm not hung up on labels. In fact, I think this makes me a more conservative investor being that I'm protecting the downside at the possible expense of some extra upside. If the market goes into a deep recession, I would certainly add to my equity but no more than 60% total equity exposure. To each there own.
Mark

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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by Shallowpockets » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:13 pm

I would say we are in the decline right now, as we speak. The last four days of the markets has dropped quite a bit. Market decline is usually not usually a one day affair.
People always throw out the 50% drop but that is not a usual. I think a lot of BHs relish a big drop. Like they are positioned to not really care about such a thing. Almost like a survivalist gloating over a big catastrophe. I find that to be an elitist view.

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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by J295 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:15 pm

Can’t predict short term behaviors of future markets with any reasonable degree of certainty.

delamer
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by delamer » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:20 pm

My investments are for the long term.

I don’t care what happens to the the stock market over the next couple years. The only effect a stock market crash will have on me is that I’ll need to rebalance.

livesoft
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by livesoft » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:21 pm

It does have a nice ring to it:

Market decline in two - oh - one - nine.
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vitaflo
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by vitaflo » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:37 pm

We're at the point that when we get a correction, people will call it a crash.

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HomerJ
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by HomerJ » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:48 pm

Mark2614 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:45 am
Most people believe we are in a bubble and will see a big market decline (anywhere from 20-50%) soon. A lot of "experts" believe this could be in 2019. Most people on this forum probably also believe a significant market decline will probably come eventually.

The Bogleheads philosophy is "stay the course." But after 10 years of market rallys -- where do we draw the line? Is anyone here switching from equities to cash in hopes to avoid a big market decline in the next year or two?
"Experts" have been predicting that for years. They may be right this time.

The market will crash again. Maybe even tomorrow. But maybe not until 2021. No one knows. The "experts" do not know.

I believe one should ALWAYS be prepared for the market crashing 50% starting tomorrow. Because it might.

So yeah, if you're at an Asset Allocation that will cause you to panic if the market crashes tomorrow, you should change it. And then leave it changed, and stay the course.

Remember, the long-term historical 10% return from the stock market INCLUDES the crashes. Read that again.

You didn't have to avoid the crashes in the past to get a very good return and became wealthy.

50% crashes are part of stock investing. Accept that. Don't have all your money in stocks if that freaks you out, or if you need the money soon (i.e. if you're close to retirement).
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HomerJ
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by HomerJ » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:54 pm

Shallowpockets wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:13 pm
I would say we are in the decline right now, as we speak. The last four days of the markets has dropped quite a bit. Market decline is usually not usually a one day affair.
S&P 500 was down last week on Thursday and Friday, about 1% each day. That's two days. Today is basically flat.
People always throw out the 50% drop but that is not a usual. I think a lot of BHs relish a big drop. Like they are positioned to not really care about such a thing. Almost like a survivalist gloating over a big catastrophe. I find that to be an elitist view.
Some of the younger BHs may relish a big drop. Most of us have zero desire to see a crash anytime soon. But we know it's possible, so we pick an Asset Allocation with that in mind.

And yes, of course, 50% drops take weeks and months; no one is saying a 50% drop could happen tomorrow. We're saying it could "start" tomorrow (or last Thursday).. :)
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by wootwoot » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:56 pm

Mark2614 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:45 am
Most people believe we are in a bubble and will see a big market decline (anywhere from 20-50%) soon.
Where are these people? Certainly not on this forum.

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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:57 pm

I have it on good authority that most people believe the market is going to go up or down tomorrow. The ones who don't believe that think it's going to stay the same.
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by UpperNwGuy » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:58 pm

Mark2614 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:45 am
Is anyone here switching from equities to cash in hopes to avoid a big market decline in the next year or two?
Not me. I chose my asset allocation with the understanding that stocks could decline. I'm staying the course.

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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:09 pm

A big market decline would be good for me. Being a trend follower, I'm, historically speaking, likely to avoid the worst of the decline and to do really well on the other side. Bring it on! :twisted:

Seriously, this topic really smacks of trolling. I mean really, "most people believe we are in a bubble?"
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by Rowan Oak » Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:38 pm

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:29 am
Mark2614 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:45 am
Most people believe we are in a bubble and will see a big market decline (anywhere from 20-50%) soon. A lot of "experts" believe this could be in 2019. Most people on this forum probably also believe a significant market decline will probably come eventually.

The Bogleheads philosophy is "stay the course." But after 10 years of market rallys -- where do we draw the line? Is anyone here switching from equities to cash in hopes to avoid a big market decline in the next year or two?
"Most people"? Have you taken a statistically accurate random sampling of the general population? If so, please share the results of your research.

Does Most people mean "more than half"? If so, is there any difference between 51% and 99% of people "believe we are in a bubble and will see a big market decline (anywhere from 20-50%) soon"? Can 51% be wrong about their "belief"? Can 99%? Yes and yes.

There's an old saying that economists should only predict what or when but never both. Think about that for a moment.
There's another saying (by a prominent economist by the name of Paul Samuelson) that "The stock market has predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions". https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Paul_Samuelson Think about that for a moment.

Better yet, look at what the forecasters, predictors, so-called experts have said (vs. what the reality has shown):
https://www.etf.com/sections/index-inve ... nopaging=1
https://www.etf.com/sections/index-inve ... nopaging=1
https://www.google.com/search?q=larry+s ... fox-b-1-ab

The predictors haven't fared too well. As Warren Buffett has said “We have long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good.”

Jack Bogle has said "Nobody knows nuthin". Believe him.
+1
“If you can get good at destroying your own wrong ideas, that is a great gift.” – Charlie Munger

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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by Jordan4FI » Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:51 pm

for me the bigger the fall the better.... be nice to get some shares at low low prices again....

delamer
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by delamer » Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:36 pm

Jordan4FI wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:51 pm
for me the bigger the fall the better.... be nice to get some shares at low low prices again....
Be careful what you wish for — big drops in the stock market often come with undesirable events like recessions and increases in unemployment.

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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by Sandtrap » Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:42 pm

Mark2614 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:45 am
Most people believe we are in a bubble and will see a big market decline (anywhere from 20-50%) soon. A lot of "experts" believe this could be in 2019. Most people on this forum probably also believe a significant market decline will probably come eventually.

The Bogleheads philosophy is "stay the course." But after 10 years of market rallys -- where do we draw the line? Is anyone here switching from equities to cash in hopes to avoid a big market decline in the next year or two?
1. Please provide web page links to articles written by "experts" who see a big market decline in 2019.

2. Perhaps everyone that is a student of life and finance believes that there will be significant market declines "someday". Most likely some time between 2019 and 2050. . . maybe later, and they will likely be correct.

3. Actionably: A "Bogle" portfolio should be structured for these eventualities. If it is not, then it is not a "Bogle" portfolio.

4. Can't remember how that line goes. . . about "lies" and "statistics".
Last edited by Sandtrap on Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.

JoeRetire
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by JoeRetire » Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:43 pm

Mark2614 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:45 am
Most people believe we are in a bubble and will see a big market decline (anywhere from 20-50%) soon.
Most? Soon?
A lot of "experts" believe this could be in 2019. Most people on this forum probably also believe a significant market decline will probably come eventually.
We could say "A lot of experts believe..." about pretty much anything.

And remember, probably eventually is a long time.
Is anyone here switching from equities to cash in hopes to avoid a big market decline in the next year or two?
Not me. My asset allocation is always set to match my personal risk tolerance. It has nothing to do with the past 10 years.

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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by oldcomputerguy » Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:15 pm

Mark2614 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:45 am
Most people believe we are in a bubble and will see a big market decline (anywhere from 20-50%) soon. A lot of "experts" believe this could be in 2019. Most people on this forum probably also believe a significant market decline will probably come eventually.

The Bogleheads philosophy is "stay the course." But after 10 years of market rallys -- where do we draw the line? Is anyone here switching from equities to cash in hopes to avoid a big market decline in the next year or two?
If you’re really this nervous, you might want to read this post from Bogleheads “nisiprius”.
It’s taken me a lot of years, but I’ve come around to this: If you’re dumb, surround yourself with smart people. And if you’re smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you.

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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by heyyou » Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:38 pm

by Dottie57 » I know there will be a bear market ........ sometime. I have a good asset allocation for me.
Ditto

A decline will save me having to rebalance. (I need a emoticon for lazy.)
Crashing is what stock markets do periodically.

For perspective, if our entire life spans were 24-36 months like some bird species, we would fear winter. The next crash will be just another crash, each one slightly different than the others--different trigger, different depth, different recovery time.

Attributed to philosopher Carlos Santayana, between WWI and WWII: "Those who have not studied history, are doomed to repeat it."

Slacker
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by Slacker » Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:43 pm

How did you feel about the early 2016 correction?
Did you make any changes to your asset allocation?
If yes, did you maintain those changes until today and are you now getting cold feet about your new allocation?
If no, what changed for you now?

z3r0c00l
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by z3r0c00l » Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:51 pm

markcoop wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:12 pm
I just don't know how to do know when the valuation is high enough or low enough.
No one does and that is the crux of this issue, you simply cannot predict the next 10 years of the stock market. The case for predicting 20-30 years is much stronger but still not a lock.

mortfree
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by mortfree » Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:52 pm

Lots of “porn” on the forum today.

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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:12 pm

read this post by Larry Swedroe entitled, "Better to face the correction":

https://www.etf.com/sections/index-inve ... nopaging=1

Now that you've read that what do you think about the likelihood of meeting your goals by getting out of the market in anticipation of a correction/crash?

As Vanguard now puts in their prospectuses (prospecti?)...it's in the total stock market index fund prospectus:
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/faces/ ... ducts=true
Do not invest with Vanguard if you are a market timer.
:happy
I love that!
"Invest we must." -- Jack Bogle | “The purpose of investing is not to simply optimise returns and make yourself rich. The purpose is not to die poor.” -- William Bernstein

columbia
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by columbia » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:19 am

Maybe.... :annoyed

goblue100
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by goblue100 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:23 am

Mark2614 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:45 am
The Bogleheads philosophy is "stay the course." But after 10 years of market rallys -- where do we draw the line? Is anyone here switching from equities to cash in hopes to avoid a big market decline in the next year or two?
Everyone wants the baby but no one wants the labor pains. You can't have one without the other. You can't have market gains without facing the possibility of market losses. People have been talking about the inevitable crash since 2013. The ones who acted on it have really missed out.
Can't take it with you when you're gone | But I want enough to get there on - Rollin with the flow - Jerry Hayes

SchruteB&B
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by SchruteB&B » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:58 am

Mark2614 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:45 am
But after 10 years of market rallys -
AND market declines! August 2011 never gets any respect. I’m usually a stickler for rules, but c’mon! That was a bear. In any case, there have certainly been solid corrections along the way.

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randomizer
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by randomizer » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:02 am

Mark2614 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:45 am
The Bogleheads philosophy is "stay the course." But after 10 years of market rallys -- where do we draw the line? Is anyone here switching from equities to cash in hopes to avoid a big market decline in the next year or two?
Absolutely not. This is going to hurt, but it has to happen sooner or later and may as well get it over with. I'm staying invested. And hopefully, I'll be able to hold onto work and continue contributing during the next downturn.
87.5:12.5, EM tilt — HODL the course!

SchruteB&B
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by SchruteB&B » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:24 am

randomizer wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:02 am
Mark2614 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:45 am
The Bogleheads philosophy is "stay the course." But after 10 years of market rallys -- where do we draw the line? Is anyone here switching from equities to cash in hopes to avoid a big market decline in the next year or two?
Absolutely not. This is going to hurt, but it has to happen sooner or later and may as well get it over with. I'm staying invested. And hopefully, I'll be able to hold onto work and continue contributing during the next downturn.
I like your phrasing better than the “I can’t wait for a huge market decline and recession that will throw people out of work and decimate their savings but I’ll be buying low hahahaha!” posts.

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willthrill81
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:27 am

SchruteB&B wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:58 am
Mark2614 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:45 am
But after 10 years of market rallys -
AND market declines! August 2011 never gets any respect. I’m usually a stickler for rules, but c’mon! That was a bear. In any case, there have certainly been solid corrections along the way.
The current bull market has only been going since early 2016. It certainly isn't nine years old.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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watchnerd
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Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Post by watchnerd » Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:24 am

Mark2614 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:45 am
Most people on this forum probably also believe a significant market decline will probably come eventually.
This is 100% true, but we have no idea when "eventually" is.

This leads to 3 rational axioms:

1. There is no actionable information on which to make a timing-based decision
2. My asset allocation should assume a severe crash could happen tomorrow
3. If #2 causes me to lose sleep, it's the wrong asset allocation
Tax Sheltered: 35% US Stock | 35% ex-US Stock | 30% TTM || Taxable: 35% US Stock | 35% ex-US Stock | 15% TTM | 15% Munis

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