U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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ronno2018
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by ronno2018 » Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:07 pm

Yes, me too, moving US stocks to bonds and international. Not too much but I am 55yo.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:49 pm

greenback wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:47 pm
H-Town wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 4:56 pm
amitb00 wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 4:23 pm
Dow and S&P 500 soaring to new highs. Enjoying the ride. Wonder when will this end and don’t want to think about that😁
Not a good thing if you're in accumulation phase. But if you're close to your target to retire, then I'd raise my glass to you :beer
I can relate to your comment more than i'd like to admit! I started my accumulation phase around ~19,000 (DOW) so the earnings are tiny compared to a large portfolio. I wish I was in accumulation earlier!
The best time to plant a tree (or invest) was 20 years ago.

The next best time is today.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

AlphaLess
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by AlphaLess » Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:53 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:30 am
Well yes, 1982 through 2012 was a bull market in bonds that was huge. As I recall, long treasuries actually had a slightly better performance than the stock market itself over that time period. There was also a tremendous bull market in stocks from 1984-1999. That is one heck of a wind at the back of investors, more like a hurricane. We had the benefit of a thirty year period of falling interest rates and relatively tame inflation.
Yup, the golden age!

It's easy-peasy when yields are falling.
"You can get more with a kind word and a gun than with just a kind word." George Washington

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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney » Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:13 am

AlphaLess wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:53 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:30 am
Well yes, 1982 through 2012 was a bull market in bonds that was huge. As I recall, long treasuries actually had a slightly better performance than the stock market itself over that time period. There was also a tremendous bull market in stocks from 1984-1999. That is one heck of a wind at the back of investors, more like a hurricane. We had the benefit of a thirty year period of falling interest rates and relatively tame inflation.
Yup, the golden age!

It's easy-peasy when yields are falling.
Maybe not long-term treasuries, as finding ways to re-invest the coupon at those rates was problematic as interest rates fell, but if you could have gotten into STRIPS it would have been great. Even into the late 1990's until now Treasury Strips beat stocks.
A performance not likely to repeat starting with current interest rates (also note, that by eyeballing it, they were more volatile than stocks).
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

Grt2bOutdoors
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Fri Sep 21, 2018 5:00 am

JoMoney wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:13 am
AlphaLess wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:53 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:30 am
Well yes, 1982 through 2012 was a bull market in bonds that was huge. As I recall, long treasuries actually had a slightly better performance than the stock market itself over that time period. There was also a tremendous bull market in stocks from 1984-1999. That is one heck of a wind at the back of investors, more like a hurricane. We had the benefit of a thirty year period of falling interest rates and relatively tame inflation.
Yup, the golden age!

It's easy-peasy when yields are falling.
Maybe not long-term treasuries, as finding ways to re-invest the coupon at those rates was problematic as interest rates fell, but if you could have gotten into STRIPS it would have been great. Even into the late 1990's until now Treasury Strips beat stocks.
A performance not likely to repeat starting with current interest rates (also note, that by eyeballing it, they were more volatile than stocks).
If you hold strips to maturity then volatility is not a problem. If you are holding them to trade, well then, accepting volatility is just part of life.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid » Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:41 am

AlphaLess wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:53 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:30 am
Well yes, 1982 through 2012 was a bull market in bonds that was huge. As I recall, long treasuries actually had a slightly better performance than the stock market itself over that time period. There was also a tremendous bull market in stocks from 1984-1999. That is one heck of a wind at the back of investors, more like a hurricane. We had the benefit of a thirty year period of falling interest rates and relatively tame inflation.
Yup, the golden age!

It's easy-peasy when yields are falling.
This is why we need the perspective of history. Interest rates and inflation don't always fall as investors found out during the 1970's. Don't think stagflation is coming back but just in case I am keeping my TIPS and REITs.
A fool and his money are good for business.

bgf
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by bgf » Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:09 am

JoMoney wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:13 am
AlphaLess wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:53 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:30 am
Well yes, 1982 through 2012 was a bull market in bonds that was huge. As I recall, long treasuries actually had a slightly better performance than the stock market itself over that time period. There was also a tremendous bull market in stocks from 1984-1999. That is one heck of a wind at the back of investors, more like a hurricane. We had the benefit of a thirty year period of falling interest rates and relatively tame inflation.
Yup, the golden age!

It's easy-peasy when yields are falling.
Maybe not long-term treasuries, as finding ways to re-invest the coupon at those rates was problematic as interest rates fell, but if you could have gotten into STRIPS it would have been great. Even into the late 1990's until now Treasury Strips beat stocks.
A performance not likely to repeat starting with current interest rates (also note, that by eyeballing it, they were more volatile than stocks).
what were they "yielding" back then?
“TE OCCIDERE POSSUNT SED TE EDERE NON POSSUNT NEFAS EST"

Crisium
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Crisium » Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:14 am

greenback wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:47 pm
H-Town wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 4:56 pm
amitb00 wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 4:23 pm
Dow and S&P 500 soaring to new highs. Enjoying the ride. Wonder when will this end and don’t want to think about that😁
Not a good thing if you're in accumulation phase. But if you're close to your target to retire, then I'd raise my glass to you :beer
I can relate to your comment more than i'd like to admit! I started my accumulation phase around ~19,000 (DOW) so the earnings are tiny compared to a large portfolio. I wish I was in accumulation earlier!

I know that feeling. It looks like I really only started a few months earlier than you.

I try to consider up and down movements both good.

Down: Most of my retirement money will (hopefully) be yet to come, so let's buy on discount

Up: Build that muscle memory of a high stock market so when the corrections and bears come the market still remembers to eventually go up (too bad it didn't work for Japan). Plus at least I got some gains on my meager portfolio. If 2018 is 1996, then we'll (so far) never go below this point and the high before the correction is still a ways off.

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ruralavalon
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by ruralavalon » Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:07 am

Total return of Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX) is up 11.31% year to date.

This is the year to wish I had a 100% stock allocation, with no international.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:17 am

ruralavalon wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:07 am
This is the year to wish I had a 100% stock allocation, with no international.
I'm there. :wink:
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

am
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by am » Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:20 am

ruralavalon wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:07 am
Total return of Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX) is up 11.31% year to date.

This is the year to wish I had a 100% stock allocation, with no international.
Agree. But next year we’ll have threads about 100% international when it outperforms. Remember that we’re investing for the long term,

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:24 am

am wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:20 am
ruralavalon wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:07 am
Total return of Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX) is up 11.31% year to date.

This is the year to wish I had a 100% stock allocation, with no international.
Agree. But next year we’ll have threads about 100% international when it outperforms. Remember that we’re investing for the long term,
Is that a prediction?
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

pascalwager
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by pascalwager » Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:50 am

I have a DFA stock funds account which was last re-balanced late 2011 at 51/49, US/int'l, and untouched since then.

Now it's 63/37.

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ruralavalon
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by ruralavalon » Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:54 am

am wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:20 am
ruralavalon wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:07 am
Total return of Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX) is up 11.31% year to date.

This is the year to wish I had a 100% stock allocation, with no international.
Agree. But next year we’ll have threads about 100% international when it outperforms. Remember that we’re investing for the long term,
I have no intent of reducing my bond or international stock allocation.

I was striving for sarcasm. Or is it irony?
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

garlandwhizzer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by garlandwhizzer » Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:15 am

nedsaid wrote:
This is why we need the perspective of history. Interest rates and inflation don't always fall as investors found out during the 1970's. Don't think stagflation is coming back but just in case I am keeping my TIPS and REITs.
Nedsaid's point of view reflects the accumulated wisdom from multiple decades of experience in investing. His portfolio prepares for things that few expect to occur like stagflation. I remember investing in the 1970s, it was like struggling to swim against a powerful current. No matter what you did, you often suffered losses in real terms as time passed. Investing was more like damage control, trying to preserve capital in real terms in a sluggish slow/no growth economy with ever increasing inflation eating away at your assets. Hope those days never return.

Garland Whizzer

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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney » Fri Sep 21, 2018 12:11 pm

bgf wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:09 am
JoMoney wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:13 am
AlphaLess wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:53 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:30 am
Well yes, 1982 through 2012 was a bull market in bonds that was huge. As I recall, long treasuries actually had a slightly better performance than the stock market itself over that time period. There was also a tremendous bull market in stocks from 1984-1999. That is one heck of a wind at the back of investors, more like a hurricane. We had the benefit of a thirty year period of falling interest rates and relatively tame inflation.
Yup, the golden age!

It's easy-peasy when yields are falling.
Maybe not long-term treasuries, as finding ways to re-invest the coupon at those rates was problematic as interest rates fell, but if you could have gotten into STRIPS it would have been great. Even into the late 1990's until now Treasury Strips beat stocks.
A performance not likely to repeat starting with current interest rates (also note, that by eyeballing it, they were more volatile than stocks).
what were they "yielding" back then?
10yr Treasuries were yielding 14.59% in 1982, 30yr roughly the same

Treasury STRIPS were first introduced in 1985
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

bgf
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by bgf » Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:16 pm

JoMoney wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 12:11 pm
bgf wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:09 am
JoMoney wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:13 am
AlphaLess wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:53 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:30 am
Well yes, 1982 through 2012 was a bull market in bonds that was huge. As I recall, long treasuries actually had a slightly better performance than the stock market itself over that time period. There was also a tremendous bull market in stocks from 1984-1999. That is one heck of a wind at the back of investors, more like a hurricane. We had the benefit of a thirty year period of falling interest rates and relatively tame inflation.
Yup, the golden age!

It's easy-peasy when yields are falling.
Maybe not long-term treasuries, as finding ways to re-invest the coupon at those rates was problematic as interest rates fell, but if you could have gotten into STRIPS it would have been great. Even into the late 1990's until now Treasury Strips beat stocks.
A performance not likely to repeat starting with current interest rates (also note, that by eyeballing it, they were more volatile than stocks).
what were they "yielding" back then?
10yr Treasuries were yielding 14.59% in 1982, 30yr roughly the same

Treasury STRIPS were first introduced in 1985
wow, so just for simplicity sake, if they were yielding 14% and road the bull market all the way to 2%, then the initial investment would be worth 7x, correct? not bad for a risk free asset.
“TE OCCIDERE POSSUNT SED TE EDERE NON POSSUNT NEFAS EST"

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Cycle
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Cycle » Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:59 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:17 am
ruralavalon wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:07 am
This is the year to wish I had a 100% stock allocation, with no international.
I'm there. :wink:
I got to tax loss harvest for the first time which was fun.

I was thinking, I hope I have 3600 in losses. I did. 5500, even better!

Every dog has it's day, VTIAX will do fine in the long run.

I like to buy stuff on sale, so I'm happier with international right now than my US and bond allocations.

MJW
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MJW » Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:18 pm

I seem to be missing whatever gene causes people to enjoy seeing their international equity holdings performing poorly.

RobLyons
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by RobLyons » Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:09 pm

I'm very optimistic about the stock market, seeing as how I'm not retiring for 25-30 years.
Call me crazy but I'm 90-95% stocks/ETFs and when the bears takeover, I'm buying more of everything.
"Great parenting sets the foundation for a better world"

carofe
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by carofe » Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:13 pm

MJW wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:18 pm
I seem to be missing whatever gene causes people to enjoy seeing their international equity holdings performing poorly.
LOL.

Quoting WSJ newsletter:
What’s problematic, however, is that companies in the Russell 1000 Growth index without steady profits have returned 18% in 2018 through August, compared with the 16% return for the whole index, according to data from FTSE Russell.

“We’re getting a little worried that equity markets are showing some unnatural distortions," he said, noting the amount of money rushing into companies posting losses is one such distortion.
Too much money and too little risk-aversion these days: a sign that some correction may be coming.
However, the 50-day moving average of SPX is still above the 200-day one. So we should be good..., right?
US Total Stock Market + Intermediate Term Bond. That's it.

MJW
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MJW » Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:27 pm

carofe wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:13 pm
Quoting WSJ newsletter:
What’s problematic, however, is that companies in the Russell 1000 Growth index without steady profits have returned 18% in 2018 through August, compared with the 16% return for the whole index, according to data from FTSE Russell.

“We’re getting a little worried that equity markets are showing some unnatural distortions," he said, noting the amount of money rushing into companies posting losses is one such distortion.
Too much money and too little risk-aversion these days: a sign that some correction may be coming.
However, the 50-day moving average of SPX is still above the 200-day one. So we should be good..., right?
I try to not overthink that sort of thing. I'm at a stage in my investing life where it doesn't really matter and there isn't much I can do it about anyway.

I also don't have the same reverence for the "wisdom of the market" that others seem to. If the market took the form of a person representing the collective intelligence of all investors, I highly suspect that this person would be a neurotic basketcase and quite possibly a moron. But that doesn't mean I can predict what it's going to do any better than the rest. I'm just betting that it will make me money in the long run.

LiterallyIronic
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by LiterallyIronic » Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:35 pm

MJW wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:18 pm
I seem to be missing whatever gene causes people to enjoy seeing their international equity holdings performing poorly.
I imagine that most of us, myself included, don't even look. I just keep throwing money into my Vanguard Target Retirement Fund. I know the Dow Jones is at an all-time high again, but I have no idea how international markets are doing, which nations my international allocation is invested in, or even what percentage of my funds are in international. I'm just doing whatever Vanguard Retirement Fund 2050 is doing (though I hope to retire in 15 years, not 32).

Apathy makes life much easier.

Silverado
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Silverado » Fri Sep 21, 2018 5:42 pm

LiterallyIronic wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:35 pm
MJW wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:18 pm
I seem to be missing whatever gene causes people to enjoy seeing their international equity holdings performing poorly.
I imagine that most of us, myself included, don't even look. I just keep throwing money into my Vanguard Target Retirement Fund. I know the Dow Jones is at an all-time high again, but I have no idea how international markets are doing, which nations my international allocation is invested in, or even what percentage of my funds are in international. I'm just doing whatever Vanguard Retirement Fund 2050 is doing (though I hope to retire in 15 years, not 32).

Apathy makes life much easier.
Yeah, I see all these posts about international and then I look at the few separate international holdings we have and think 'hmm, they seem to be somewhere close to what I remember'. And the one we have in taxable at TRP we stopped adding to when we found BH five years ago and there really isn't even TLH that is obvious enough for me to go chase. I am watching for a chance to totally get out of the holding due to an ER higher than I can get in my 401k. So if it really drops and the LTCG is in a certain range, I will strike and adjust and be happy to go down one account.

columbia
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by columbia » Sun Sep 23, 2018 6:16 am

Everyone’s favorite alarmist begs to differ...
“We won’t be able to call it a recession, it’s going to be worse than the Great Depression,” said economic commentator Peter Schiff, forecasting a major economic downturn as early as the tail end of the Trump presidency’s first term. “The US economy is in so much worse shape than it was a decade ago.”

https://nypost.com/2018/09/22/next-cras ... =applenews

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Sun Sep 23, 2018 9:12 am

RobLyons wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:09 pm
I'm very optimistic about the stock market, seeing as how I'm not retiring for 25-30 years.
And it's doubtful that you'll see all your stock holdings at the point of retirement either.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

RobLyons
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by RobLyons » Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:59 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Sun Sep 23, 2018 9:12 am
RobLyons wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:09 pm
I'm very optimistic about the stock market, seeing as how I'm not retiring for 25-30 years.
And it's doubtful that you'll see all your stock holdings at the point of retirement either.

I'm not sure what you mean.
"Great parenting sets the foundation for a better world"

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Sep 24, 2018 10:05 am

RobLyons wrote:
Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:59 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Sun Sep 23, 2018 9:12 am
RobLyons wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:09 pm
I'm very optimistic about the stock market, seeing as how I'm not retiring for 25-30 years.
And it's doubtful that you'll see all your stock holdings at the point of retirement either.

I'm not sure what you mean.
Your time horizon for holding stocks is likely a lot longer than 25-30 years because you'll still hold stocks during retirement. You could easily have a 60 year holding period for your current stocks.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

Engineer250
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Engineer250 » Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:12 pm

Anyone else excited to see 10 year treasury yields finally hanging on above 3% again?
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.

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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney » Mon Sep 24, 2018 7:09 pm

Engineer250 wrote:
Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:12 pm
Anyone else excited to see 10 year treasury yields finally hanging on above 3% again?
I'll be interested when they're at 6%, but that could mean high expected inflation and/or high economic growth.
The fact that short-term treasuries are close, flatter yield curve, doesn't get me excited to lend money at 3% for ten years when near cash is earning 2%.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Sep 24, 2018 10:31 pm

JoMoney wrote:
Mon Sep 24, 2018 7:09 pm
Engineer250 wrote:
Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:12 pm
Anyone else excited to see 10 year treasury yields finally hanging on above 3% again?
I'll be interested when they're at 6%, but that could mean high expected inflation and/or high economic growth.
The fact that short-term treasuries are close, flatter yield curve, doesn't get me excited to lend money at 3% for ten years when near cash is earning 2%.
It's hard for me to get excited about a (possibly) 1% real return.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

RobLyons
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by RobLyons » Tue Sep 25, 2018 12:29 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Sep 24, 2018 10:05 am
RobLyons wrote:
Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:59 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Sun Sep 23, 2018 9:12 am
RobLyons wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:09 pm
I'm very optimistic about the stock market, seeing as how I'm not retiring for 25-30 years.
And it's doubtful that you'll see all your stock holdings at the point of retirement either.

I'm not sure what you mean.
Your time horizon for holding stocks is likely a lot longer than 25-30 years because you'll still hold stocks during retirement. You could easily have a 60 year holding period for your current stocks.


Right but i said i'm not retiring for 25-30 years, nothing about length of holding stocks.. point still the same :sharebeer
"Great parenting sets the foundation for a better world"

Valuethinker
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Valuethinker » Tue Sep 25, 2018 3:07 am

MJW wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:18 pm
I seem to be missing whatever gene causes people to enjoy seeing their international equity holdings performing poorly.
My international holdings are doing very well, thank you very much.

But then, the US is an international market to me ;-).

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Lauretta
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Lauretta » Tue Sep 25, 2018 4:34 am

MJW wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:18 pm
I seem to be missing whatever gene causes people to enjoy seeing their international equity holdings performing poorly.
It's not really a question of how Int'l is performing/has performed in the recent past; it's more a question of how it's likely to perform over the next 10 yrs say.

Form the little I learnt, I think it's a mistake to extrapolate into the future what happened in recent years. People tend to be momentum investors (chasing performance) with a value horizon (i.e. a several years lookback period) and that usually doesn't work out very well.

From 1974 to 2008 US and international performed similarly; it's just during the last 10 years that the US has greatly outperformed. Now more and more people believe that this will go on forever, stretching US valuations more and more. I am personally greatly underweight in US stocks. Perhaps they'll continue to outperform in the near future, since we have not reached general euphoria, but over a 10 years horizon all rational expectations of returns are pretty low for US stocks (since valuations are so high) and are significantly higher for Int'l.
When everyone is thinking the same, no one is thinking at all

Engineer250
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Engineer250 » Tue Sep 25, 2018 10:57 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Sep 24, 2018 10:31 pm
JoMoney wrote:
Mon Sep 24, 2018 7:09 pm
Engineer250 wrote:
Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:12 pm
Anyone else excited to see 10 year treasury yields finally hanging on above 3% again?
I'll be interested when they're at 6%, but that could mean high expected inflation and/or high economic growth.
The fact that short-term treasuries are close, flatter yield curve, doesn't get me excited to lend money at 3% for ten years when near cash is earning 2%.
It's hard for me to get excited about a (possibly) 1% real return.
I’m not buying treasuries (outside of fed money market for my emergency fund). But I will take real returns being greater than 0 any day. Minus 2014 and 2015, inflation was hovering between 1.5% and 3% since the recession. But good luck finding any money markets or savings accounts paying anywhere near that. Inflation is something that will negatively impact me either way, I’d rather have better rates if I’m going to deal with inflation.
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MJW » Tue Sep 25, 2018 1:21 pm

Lauretta wrote:
Tue Sep 25, 2018 4:34 am
MJW wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:18 pm
I seem to be missing whatever gene causes people to enjoy seeing their international equity holdings performing poorly.
It's not really a question of how Int'l is performing/has performed in the recent past; it's more a question of how it's likely to perform over the next 10 yrs say.

Form the little I learnt, I think it's a mistake to extrapolate into the future what happened in recent years. People tend to be momentum investors (chasing performance) with a value horizon (i.e. a several years lookback period) and that usually doesn't work out very well.

From 1974 to 2008 US and international performed similarly; it's just during the last 10 years that the US has greatly outperformed. Now more and more people believe that this will go on forever, stretching US valuations more and more. I am personally greatly underweight in US stocks. Perhaps they'll continue to outperform in the near future, since we have not reached general euphoria, but over a 10 years horizon all rational expectations of returns are pretty low for US stocks (since valuations are so high) and are significantly higher for Int'l.
You may be reading a bit much into my comment. It's mostly that I'm grumpy and intolerant. :)

One day 10 years from now will become "today." I hope Int'l will have done well/be doing well because I hold enough of it for it to matter whether it does. Regardless of valuations, it still has to deliver and I'm not all that convinced it will. Hopefully I am wrong.

finite_difference
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by finite_difference » Tue Sep 25, 2018 6:09 pm

garlandwhizzer wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:15 am
nedsaid wrote:
This is why we need the perspective of history. Interest rates and inflation don't always fall as investors found out during the 1970's. Don't think stagflation is coming back but just in case I am keeping my TIPS and REITs.
Nedsaid's point of view reflects the accumulated wisdom from multiple decades of experience in investing. His portfolio prepares for things that few expect to occur like stagflation. I remember investing in the 1970s, it was like struggling to swim against a powerful current. No matter what you did, you often suffered losses in real terms as time passed. Investing was more like damage control, trying to preserve capital in real terms in a sluggish slow/no growth economy with ever increasing inflation eating away at your assets. Hope those days never return.

Garland Whizzer
How much TIPS are you holding?
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh

hdas
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by hdas » Mon Oct 01, 2018 2:40 pm

naughty reversal in spu with a RBD in small caps.....thread lightly!. H
Stay the course and buy some more.

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oldzey
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by oldzey » Mon Oct 01, 2018 10:53 pm

Small caps down about 1.3% today. Par for the course as it pertains to small caps. :beer
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

hdas
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by hdas » Tue Oct 02, 2018 2:10 pm

Russell2000 down another 1% today, close to the 2 month low. The trend followers might start paying attention below 1620 in RTY
Wonder if Mr. Livesoft is taking out his cane
Stay the course and buy some more.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by hdas » Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:54 pm

This thread was an extremely useful indicator. The market likes to take care of excesses, we saw it with the vol sellers in February, and now removing some of the weak hands out of the momentum trade. Lot's of impostors there

Here is a chart of the ratio ISJ / MTUM

Image
Stay the course and buy some more.

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ReformedSpender
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by ReformedSpender » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:52 am

I think this post jinxed the overall markets. Ironically, we are just about back to the same level of the S&P as when this topic was started.

May one of the mods please kindly lock and close this topic so we can resume or northerly ride?

:D

(Kidding of course)
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

hdas
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by hdas » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:55 am

ReformedSpender wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:52 am
I think this post jinxed the overall markets. Ironically, we are just about back to the same level of the S&P as when this topic was started.

May one of the mods please kindly lock and close this topic so we can resume or northerly ride?

:D

(Kidding of course)
The climax of this thread was circa 2920, 70 handles higher than here. Don't lock it !! This thread is gold. H
Stay the course and buy some more.

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid » Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:37 pm

Just out of curiosity, I decided to check the market averages when this thread started on August 27, 2018. I found this below at Zacks Equity Research.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced 0.5%, to close at 25,790.35. The S&P 500 gained 0.6% to close at 2,874.69. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 7,945.98, increasing 0.9%.
Right now, the Dow is at 25,598.74, the S&P 500 at 2,785.68, and the Nasdaq at 7,422.05. That is after the 831 point drop today in the Dow 30. Gives a little perspective that things aren't so bad.

So the markets are down a bit from the start of the thread but not enough that Cliff Asness has to put out shorts every time this thread pops up. I have joked a lot about the "Soar" and "Freefall" threads being contrary indicators but I wouldn't trade based on this.
A fool and his money are good for business.

ronno2018
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by ronno2018 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:51 pm

I enjoy glancing at the daily market direction and was unperturbed in 2008, but I am now closer to retirement but did do some IPS and re balancing recently so I am more insulated than before! I do hate that my long term VWO has done poorly and my recent VEU purchase has taken a dive. Need to hold those for several more years at least. :sharebeer

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oldzey
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by oldzey » Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:30 pm

oldzey wrote:
Sat Sep 01, 2018 7:03 pm
Engineer250 wrote:
Sat Sep 01, 2018 4:35 pm
SGM wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:06 am
My buddy Skysoldier was number 1 at 10 AM in his prediction of the S&P. He is torn between wanting to win the contest and have bragging rights or wanting me to be right with my high prediction. He has come down on the side of his portfolio and he wants my high prediction to be acciurate. I will buy him a cup of coffee tomorrow for hitting number 1.
I am beginning to worry I undershot with my prediction, but we'll see. I'm #120 now with another 2+% to go. A lot better than my performance in the hedge fund contest.

Thanks to whomever started this thread. I love the freefall one too so am pleased there's another one we can post on if the market goes up by a half a percent rather than down.
I thought I was overly-bullish in my prediction (2986.42) for the Boglehead Contest 2018, but the S&P 500 Index is currently at 2901.52. :shock: :thumbsup

Image
Updated on 10/10/18: :twisted:

Image
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

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patrick013
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by patrick013 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:42 pm

I saw the 500 earnings TTM and decided to redo the chart.
Didn't know they would crash all day. :)

Image
age in bonds, buy-and-hold, 10 year business cycle

hdas
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by hdas » Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:46 pm

Some remarks regarding the current collapse:

1. Complacency abounds, anecdotally many threads talking about buying, catching knives, etc.
2. No panic yet, measured by the magnitude and speed of the move vis a vis the move in vix.
3. Getting close to the levels that trend followers watch to close their longs in spu.

Yet, seems like a decent bet to buy the dip and get out during the December levitation. Let's see how heavy or light the market feels in the way up.

Be careful out there! :greedy
Stay the course and buy some more.

FiveSixAce
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by FiveSixAce » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:00 pm

hdas wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:46 pm
Some remarks regarding the current collapse:

1. Complacency abounds, anecdotally many threads talking about buying, catching knives, etc.
2. No panic yet, measured by the magnitude and speed of the move vis a vis the move in vix.
3. Getting close to the levels that trend followers watch to close their longs in spu.

Yet, seems like a decent bet to buy the dip and get out during the December levitation. Let's see how heavy or light the market feels in the way up.

Be careful out there! :greedy
Lol @ "collapse"

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Doom&Gloom » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:52 pm

Everything was going just fine until this thread came along.


:mrgreen:

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