Your welcome.Engineer250 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 01, 2018 4:35 pm
Thanks to whomever started this thread. I love the freefall one too so am pleased there's another one we can post on if the market goes up by a half a percent rather than down.
U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
oldzey wrote: ↑Sat Sep 01, 2018 7:03 pmEngineer250 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 01, 2018 4:35 pmit is much too early to celebrate. I voted for 3% price appreciation this year @ 2764.24SGM wrote: ↑Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:06 am
I thought I was overly-bullish in my prediction (2986.42) for the Boglehead Contest 2018, but the S&P 500 Index is currently at 2901.52.
My number is still within range.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
After several bad days, we can change the title to US Stocks Continue to Sore!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I had some uneasiness when this thread popped up. Sure enough, the market has drifted downward since. To my dismay, the thread caught on.
This reminds me of the "Elves", the panel of technical analysts who weekly gave out bullish or bearish signals on Wall $treet Week with Louis Rukeyser. The almost perfect contrary indicator, when the elves were bullish, the market fell. When the elves were bearish, the markets rose. It was a long time ago, but I remember the elves threw in the towel and became bullish with Gail Dudack being the lone bear on the panel. The panel remained bullish and consistently Dudack was the lone bear on the panel. Rukeyser fired Dudack. Not long after, the market crashed and Dudack was proved right. Later on, in disgust, Rukeyser fired the whole panel and eliminated this feature from his program.
As I recall, he also announced the sentiment of money managers on Wall Street. Negative sentiment proved to be a good thing. It is that you need a supply of pessimists who can change their mind and become optimists, buying stocks and propelling markets higher. When the last pessimist throws in the towel and buys stocks in a panic, the bull market is over. Conversely, bear markets is a slow, painful process of optimists giving up and becoming pessimists. When the last optimist sells his stock in utter disgust, the bear market is over.
I have had a lot of fun with this, I don't really believe that Boglehead threads move the stock market. I do however believe that market sentiment is important. When people get too confident, that is a sign trouble is ahead. Bull markets make geniuses of us all. What I will say is that these threads, "soar" and "freefall" give an indication of what people are thinking.
A fool and his money are good for business.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
My recollection is that when Rukeyser eliminated the "elves," he replaced them with a set of ten technical indicators. I thought the "elves" was one of the most entertaining parts of WSW.nedsaid wrote: ↑Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:57 amI had some uneasiness when this thread popped up. Sure enough, the market has drifted downward since. To my dismay, the thread caught on.
This reminds me of the "Elves", the panel of technical analysts who weekly gave out bullish or bearish signals on Wall $treet Week with Louis Rukeyser. The almost perfect contrary indicator, when the elves were bullish, the market fell. When the elves were bearish, the markets rose. It was a long time ago, but I remember the elves threw in the towel and became bullish with Gail Dudack being the lone bear on the panel. The panel remained bullish and consistently Dudack was the lone bear on the panel. Rukeyser fired Dudack. Not long after, the market crashed and Dudack was proved right. Later on, in disgust, Rukeyser fired the whole panel and eliminated this feature from his program.
As I recall, he also announced the sentiment of money managers on Wall Street. Negative sentiment proved to be a good thing. It is that you need a supply of pessimists who can change their mind and become optimists, buying stocks and propelling markets higher. When the last pessimist throws in the towel and buys stocks in a panic, the bull market is over. Conversely, bear markets is a slow, painful process of optimists giving up and becoming pessimists. When the last optimist sells his stock in utter disgust, the bear market is over.
I have had a lot of fun with this, I don't really believe that Boglehead threads move the stock market. I do however believe that market sentiment is important. When people get too confident, that is a sign trouble is ahead. Bull markets make geniuses of us all. What I will say is that these threads, "soar" and "freefall" give an indication of what people are thinking.
No guarantee that my recollection is accurate
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Made me laugh
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein |
Wiki article link: Bogleheads® investment philosophy
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I had also forgotten that Lou Rukeyser himself got fired as host of Wall $treet Week and was replaced by the folks at Fortune Magazine. Rukeyser started his own show which was pretty much the format of the old Wall $treet Week. He then got ill and the CNBC anchors ran the show for a few months until it was announced that Rukeyser wasn't coming back. The show was cancelled but it was a shame, I thought the CNBC anchors did a fine job hosting the show. I miss Lou. He and I spent a lot of Friday nights together by television. Also miss Paul Kangas at Nightly Business Report.Doom&Gloom wrote: ↑Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:12 pmMy recollection is that when Rukeyser eliminated the "elves," he replaced them with a set of ten technical indicators. I thought the "elves" was one of the most entertaining parts of WSW.nedsaid wrote: ↑Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:57 amI had some uneasiness when this thread popped up. Sure enough, the market has drifted downward since. To my dismay, the thread caught on.
This reminds me of the "Elves", the panel of technical analysts who weekly gave out bullish or bearish signals on Wall $treet Week with Louis Rukeyser. The almost perfect contrary indicator, when the elves were bullish, the market fell. When the elves were bearish, the markets rose. It was a long time ago, but I remember the elves threw in the towel and became bullish with Gail Dudack being the lone bear on the panel. The panel remained bullish and consistently Dudack was the lone bear on the panel. Rukeyser fired Dudack. Not long after, the market crashed and Dudack was proved right. Later on, in disgust, Rukeyser fired the whole panel and eliminated this feature from his program.
As I recall, he also announced the sentiment of money managers on Wall Street. Negative sentiment proved to be a good thing. It is that you need a supply of pessimists who can change their mind and become optimists, buying stocks and propelling markets higher. When the last pessimist throws in the towel and buys stocks in a panic, the bull market is over. Conversely, bear markets is a slow, painful process of optimists giving up and becoming pessimists. When the last optimist sells his stock in utter disgust, the bear market is over.
I have had a lot of fun with this, I don't really believe that Boglehead threads move the stock market. I do however believe that market sentiment is important. When people get too confident, that is a sign trouble is ahead. Bull markets make geniuses of us all. What I will say is that these threads, "soar" and "freefall" give an indication of what people are thinking.
No guarantee that my recollection is accurate
A fool and his money are good for business.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Evidently, you are not alone. Markets down again today, though not by a lot.
A fool and his money are good for business.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Darn it! If you had capitulated and sold everything, the markets would be soaring again on Monday. We probably will see another down day on Monday.
A fool and his money are good for business.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
At that time I had a co-worker who insisted we were heading to an economy where we wouldn’t have t pay for anything - our information would be sold and it would cost us nothing to live. My brain hurt after that conversation. He couldn’t tell me how companies making needed products would earn money.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Yep, people were saying a lot of stupid stuff in those days. It was like euphoria blinded them and it seemed that common sense just ceased to exist. I suppose higher and higher stock prices were releasing some sort of brain chemical that induced a euphoric state. But that doesn't last too long and hard reality causes the castles in the air to come tumbling down.Dottie57 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:16 pmAt that time I had a co-worker who insisted we were heading to an economy where we wouldn’t have t pay for anything - our information would be sold and it would cost us nothing to live. My brain hurt after that conversation. He couldn’t tell me how companies making needed products would earn money.
A fool and his money are good for business.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Stock price euphoria and internet euphoria = madness. At least in my opinion.nedsaid wrote: ↑Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:21 pmYep, people were saying a lot of stupid stuff in those days. It was like euphoria blinded them and it seemed that common sense just ceased to exist. I suppose higher and higher stock prices were releasing some sort of brain chemical that induced a euphoric state. But that doesn't last too long and hard reality causes the castles in the air to come tumbling down.Dottie57 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:16 pmAt that time I had a co-worker who insisted we were heading to an economy where we wouldn’t have t pay for anything - our information would be sold and it would cost us nothing to live. My brain hurt after that conversation. He couldn’t tell me how companies making needed products would earn money.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I love the mention up thread that bull markets make geniuses of us all.
People are still saying lots of stupid stuff. They just think it's everyone else that's saying the stupid stuff. And they won't find out they're the ones saying stupid stuff until just before the tsunami hits when the tide evaporates. This is as sure a prediction you can make because it's happened repeatedly for as long as there have been markets.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Eeeeaaagllllle! (Scrubs reference)
Consistently sets low goals and fails to achieve them.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
^^^ nedsaid, I too miss Lou and Paul. As well as the many guests that they interviewed. (One was Michael Price money manager for the former Mutual Series funds which started me to invest in mutual funds. It was one of the few places for the average investor to get any kind of information back then.nedsaid wrote: ↑Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:16 pmI had also forgotten that Lou Rukeyser himself got fired as host of Wall $treet Week and was replaced by the folks at Fortune Magazine. Rukeyser started his own show which was pretty much the format of the old Wall $treet Week. He then got ill and the CNBC anchors ran the show for a few months until it was announced that Rukeyser wasn't coming back. The show was cancelled but it was a shame, I thought the CNBC anchors did a fine job hosting the show. I miss Lou. He and I spent a lot of Friday nights together by television. Also miss Paul Kangas at Nightly Business Report.Doom&Gloom wrote: ↑Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:12 pmMy recollection is that when Rukeyser eliminated the "elves," he replaced them with a set of ten technical indicators. I thought the "elves" was one of the most entertaining parts of WSW.nedsaid wrote: ↑Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:57 amI had some uneasiness when this thread popped up. Sure enough, the market has drifted downward since. To my dismay, the thread caught on.
This reminds me of the "Elves", the panel of technical analysts who weekly gave out bullish or bearish signals on Wall $treet Week with Louis Rukeyser. The almost perfect contrary indicator, when the elves were bullish, the market fell. When the elves were bearish, the markets rose. It was a long time ago, but I remember the elves threw in the towel and became bullish with Gail Dudack being the lone bear on the panel. The panel remained bullish and consistently Dudack was the lone bear on the panel. Rukeyser fired Dudack. Not long after, the market crashed and Dudack was proved right. Later on, in disgust, Rukeyser fired the whole panel and eliminated this feature from his program.
As I recall, he also announced the sentiment of money managers on Wall Street. Negative sentiment proved to be a good thing. It is that you need a supply of pessimists who can change their mind and become optimists, buying stocks and propelling markets higher. When the last pessimist throws in the towel and buys stocks in a panic, the bull market is over. Conversely, bear markets is a slow, painful process of optimists giving up and becoming pessimists. When the last optimist sells his stock in utter disgust, the bear market is over.
I have had a lot of fun with this, I don't really believe that Boglehead threads move the stock market. I do however believe that market sentiment is important. When people get too confident, that is a sign trouble is ahead. Bull markets make geniuses of us all. What I will say is that these threads, "soar" and "freefall" give an indication of what people are thinking.
No guarantee that my recollection is accurate
That said, the "elves" as I recall were terrible at their stock selections as well. One example was a strong buy for Worldcom....a few weeks later the company was in serious trouble..."Be fearful when others are greedy"
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
John Bogle was a guest on the show and was a member of the Wall $treet Week Hall of Fame. Also Peter Lynch, John Templeton, and Chris Davis come to mind as guests. Someone did an analysis of the stock picks of panelists and guests and found that those picks trailed the market. Oh well, it was good clean fun.B. Wellington wrote: ↑Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:29 am
^^^ nedsaid, I too miss Lou and Paul. As well as the many guests that they interviewed. (One was Michael Price money manager for the former Mutual Series funds which started me to invest in mutual funds. It was one of the few places for the average investor to get any kind of information back then.
That said, the "elves" as I recall were terrible at their stock selections as well. One example was a strong buy for Worldcom....a few weeks later the company was in serious trouble..."Be fearful when others are greedy"
A fool and his money are good for business.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Yup, it's double-reverse psychology !nedsaid wrote: ↑Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:33 pmDarn it! If you had capitulated and sold everything, the markets would be soaring again on Monday. We probably will see another down day on Monday.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Nothing but up from here, my friends. Only good times ahead.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Remember when you wanted what you currently have?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Good. I am still 70/30 in. But planning to reduce to 60/40.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I'm up 11.37% YTD, a little over 3% above January's highs. I'd take this every year from here on out.
That being said, the unemployment rate being this low may portend a recession within a year or two.
That being said, the unemployment rate being this low may portend a recession within a year or two.
The Sensible Steward
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
That article was an unusually good presentation of vacuity.Freefun wrote: ↑Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:51 am This time it's different lol!
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/12/heres-h ... ecade.html
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
After yesterday's 'buying opportunity', stocks are right back up.
The Sensible Steward
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
If CNBC says the market will deliver 9% returns every year then it's time to go all in lol !gd wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:13 amThat article was an unusually good presentation of vacuity.Freefun wrote: ↑Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:51 am This time it's different lol!
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/12/heres-h ... ecade.html
Remember when you wanted what you currently have?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
The S&P 500 index is up 0.61% so far today .willthrill81 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:27 am After yesterday's 'buying opportunity', stocks are right back up.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein |
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I admit it. I posted in the "freefall" thread yesterday because I wanted the markets to go up so that I could rebalance. A few folks responded and by golly the market was up strongly today! I also rebalanced today. Woo Hoo!! Nedsaid, the market manipulator.ruralavalon wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:44 amThe S&P 500 index is up 0.61% so far today .willthrill81 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:27 am After yesterday's 'buying opportunity', stocks are right back up.
A fool and his money are good for business.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
darn you, I have been trying to re-balance INTO US Stocks this past monthnedsaid wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:55 pmI admit it. I posted in the "freefall" thread yesterday because I wanted the markets to go up so that I could rebalance. A few folks responded and by golly the market was up strongly today! I also rebalanced today. Woo Hoo!! Nedsaid, the market manipulator.ruralavalon wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:44 amThe S&P 500 index is up 0.61% so far today .willthrill81 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:27 am After yesterday's 'buying opportunity', stocks are right back up.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Sadly, I now have to report you to the SEC. At least you'll know what those black cars that will shortly be parked outside your house are there for.nedsaid wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:55 pmI admit it. I posted in the "freefall" thread yesterday because I wanted the markets to go up so that I could rebalance. A few folks responded and by golly the market was up strongly today! I also rebalanced today. Woo Hoo!! Nedsaid, the market manipulator.ruralavalon wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:44 amThe S&P 500 index is up 0.61% so far today .willthrill81 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:27 am After yesterday's 'buying opportunity', stocks are right back up.
The Sensible Steward
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I ought to start my own Hedge Fund. Going long and short on the "Soar" and "Freefall" threads. Short on "Soar" when it pops up, and long on "Freefall" when it leads. Cliff Asness, are you reading this?willthrill81 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 3:20 pmSadly, I now have to report you to the SEC. At least you'll know what those black cars that will shortly be parked outside your house are there for.nedsaid wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:55 pmI admit it. I posted in the "freefall" thread yesterday because I wanted the markets to go up so that I could rebalance. A few folks responded and by golly the market was up strongly today! I also rebalanced today. Woo Hoo!! Nedsaid, the market manipulator.ruralavalon wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:44 amThe S&P 500 index is up 0.61% so far today .willthrill81 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:27 am After yesterday's 'buying opportunity', stocks are right back up.
A fool and his money are good for business.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Obviously, Boglehead threads do not move the markets. I am sort of kidding here. But I admit I did post on the "Freefall" thread to see what would happen. I wanted a big up day to sell stocks into.retiringwhen wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 3:11 pmdarn you, I have been trying to re-balance INTO US Stocks this past monthnedsaid wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:55 pmI admit it. I posted in the "freefall" thread yesterday because I wanted the markets to go up so that I could rebalance. A few folks responded and by golly the market was up strongly today! I also rebalanced today. Woo Hoo!! Nedsaid, the market manipulator.ruralavalon wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:44 amThe S&P 500 index is up 0.61% so far today .willthrill81 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:27 am After yesterday's 'buying opportunity', stocks are right back up.
I have had a lot of fun with this but I don't recommend timing the markets based on the "Soar" and the "Freefall" threads. Actually, I have been looking to pull the trigger on another round of stocks to bonds rebalancing for a couple weeks now and today looked like a pretty good day to do it.
For quite a while, the "Freefall" thread seemed like a good contrary indicator. Obviously, it didn't work from August 2015 through February 2016 during which we had a 20% correction. The thread popping up didn't stop the near bear market. It won't stop the next bear market either.
It does illustrate the point that you don't want too much optimism during a bull market. You need a good supply of pessimists who could change their minds, become optimists and buy stocks, moving the market higher. What you don't want is a situation of where everyone who was going to buy has already bought.
A fool and his money are good for business.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I think now is a great time to throw the rest of my savings into the market...maybe even take out a loan to sweeten the pot!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Well, today was a good up day but yesterday was a down day. You missed your chance.
A fool and his money are good for business.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Naturally I'm going to panic-sell now.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Well, the DOW has been soaring this week, but the S&P 500, which I assume most Boglehead's track, is only eeking upwards.
All this media noise around tariffs has appeared to be the primary influencer. Apparently, tariff concerns have eased up this week, increasing investor confidence, but, no one knows what tomorrow holds. I have to wonder that if not for the tariff threats, would the market be much higher or would the media have latched onto something else that would have had such a dramatic influence on the market?
All this media noise around tariffs has appeared to be the primary influencer. Apparently, tariff concerns have eased up this week, increasing investor confidence, but, no one knows what tomorrow holds. I have to wonder that if not for the tariff threats, would the market be much higher or would the media have latched onto something else that would have had such a dramatic influence on the market?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
The S&P 500 index is up 0.84% so far today
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein |
Wiki article link: Bogleheads® investment philosophy
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Dow and S&P 500 soaring to new highs. Enjoying the ride. Wonder when will this end and don’t want to think about that
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Not a good thing if you're in accumulation phase. But if you're close to your target to retire, then I'd raise my glass to you
Time is the ultimate currency.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I can relate to your comment more than i'd like to admit! I started my accumulation phase around ~19,000 (DOW) so the earnings are tiny compared to a large portfolio. I wish I was in accumulation earlier!
You shouldn’t retire until your money starts making more money than you made in your best year.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Yes, me too, moving US stocks to bonds and international. Not too much but I am 55yo.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
The best time to plant a tree (or invest) was 20 years ago.greenback wrote: ↑Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:47 pmI can relate to your comment more than i'd like to admit! I started my accumulation phase around ~19,000 (DOW) so the earnings are tiny compared to a large portfolio. I wish I was in accumulation earlier!
The next best time is today.
The Sensible Steward