What do I do with my investments during a downturn/recession?

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mrplee4
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What do I do with my investments during a downturn/recession?

Post by mrplee4 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:47 pm

Hi all,

I'm 30 years old, married, and have questions on what to do with my retirement investments exactly during a downturn/recession.

Currently, I have:
- $20,000 Cash in High Yield Savings Account at VioBank (2% APR/year)
- $41,000 in Vanguard's Traditional IRA, VFIFX TRD Fund (90/10 AA)
- $11,000 in Vanguard's Roth IRA, VFIFX TRD Fund (90/10 AA)

1) When a downturn hits, do I switch to a more conservative TRD fund? Or do I just stay the course and let it ride. Or do I buy more?

2) In addition, should I contribute more to my Traditional IRA account or to my cash savings account with 2% annual yield? (I max out Roth IRA every year). I know it's a marathon but the I'm not seeing comfortable returns with VFIFX. Should I switch to a more conservative TRD? Will that yield me more?

Thanks for all your inputs and advice.

ddurrett896
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Re: What do I do with my investments during a downturn/recession?

Post by ddurrett896 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:51 pm

mrplee4 wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:47 pm
1) When a downturn hits, do I switch to a more conservative TRD fund? Or do I just stay the course and let it ride. Or do I buy more?
Continue doing what you do today.

People who made moves in 2008 lost.
People who did nothing won.

SoAnyway
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Re: What do I do with my investments during a downturn/recession?

Post by SoAnyway » Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:56 pm

mrplee4 wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:47 pm
I'm 30 years old, married, and have questions on what to do with my retirement investments exactly during a downturn/recession.

Currently, I have:
- $20,000 Cash in High Yield Savings Account at VioBank (2% APR/year)
- $41,000 in Vanguard's Traditional IRA, VFIFX TRD Fund (90/10 AA)
- $11,000 in Vanguard's Roth IRA, VFIFX TRD Fund (90/10 AA)

1) When a downturn hits, do I switch to a more conservative TRD fund? Or do I just stay the course and let it ride. Or do I buy more?

2) In addition, should I contribute more to my Traditional IRA account or to my cash savings account with 2% annual yield? (I max out Roth IRA every year). I know it's a marathon but the I'm not seeing comfortable returns with VFIFX. Should I switch to a more conservative TRD? Will that yield me more?
OP, occurrence of a downturn should not affect your investment AA if you chose the AA correctly in the first place based on your own risk tolerance/how much you can afford to lose/time horizon. Nor should it affect your cash contributions if the cash balance is an adequate amount for your EF needs. Did you select an appropriate AA for your true risk tolerance in the first place?

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grabiner
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Re: What do I do with my investments during a downturn/recession?

Post by grabiner » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:12 pm

mrplee4 wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:47 pm
2) In addition, should I contribute more to my Traditional IRA account or to my cash savings account with 2% annual yield? (I max out Roth IRA every year).
If you max out a Roth IRA, you cannot also contribute to a traditional IRA (unless your Roth IRA contribution limit is in the phase-out range); the $5500 contribution limit is combined over the two types of IRAs. If you have contributed to both, you need to contact a tax advisor to straighten this out. If you rolled over an old employer 401(k) to a traditional IRA, you still can't contribute to that 401(k) if you max out your Roth IRA.

If you have a traditional 401(k) and a Roth IRA, then you can contribute to both. And in that situation, you should contribute the money to the 401(k) that you won't need before retirement, so that you get the benefit of years of tax-deferred growth; leave the savings account for an emergency fund and short-term needs such as buying a car.
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Re: What do I do with my investments during a downturn/recession?

Post by Fallible » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:18 am

Fallible wrote:
Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:18 am
mrplee4 wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:47 pm
...
1) When a downturn hits, do I switch to a more conservative TRD fund? Or do I just stay the course and let it ride. Or do I buy more? ...
You deal with these questions when first setting an asset allocation that you can stay with through a market downturn. That allocation should be based on your need, willingness, and ability to take risk. These are explained in the wiki's "Asset Allocation" page (scroll down to "Ability, willingness, need). Willingness to take risk refers to your tolerance for risk in a market downturn, and ways to help you determine that are in the wiki's "Risk Tolerance" page. Also check out a book by pro Boglehead Rick Ferri, All About Asset Allocation, 2nd ed. [/quote]

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Asset_allocation
Last edited by Fallible on Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:48 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: What do I do with my investments during a downturn/recession?

Post by 22twain » Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:47 am

ddurrett896 wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:51 pm
Continue doing what you do today.
+1

During 2008-09 (my mid 50s) I kept on contributing to my 403B plan as I had been doing since the mid 1980s: 50% stock, 50% stable-value fund, without rebalancing. (This was before I found Bogleheads and learned about rebalancing.)
My investing princiPLEs do not include absolutely preserving princiPAL.

B. Wellington
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Re: What do I do with my investments during a downturn/recession?

Post by B. Wellington » Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:00 am

22twain wrote:
Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:47 am
ddurrett896 wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:51 pm
Continue doing what you do today.
+1

During 2008-09 (my mid 50s) I kept on contributing to my 403B plan as I had been doing since the mid 1980s: 50% stock, 50% stable-value fund, without rebalancing. (This was before I found Bogleheads and learned about rebalancing.)
+2 I don't have a 403B plan. However, I kept investing as much as I could into my 401k and Roth IRA retirement plans as well as any "extra" dollars that I could to my taxable accounts. Approximately 60% stock, 40% bonds in total on all accounts. Make a plan you can live with "through thick and thin" years and then stick to it. Years from today you will be glad that you did... :beer

TwstdSista
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Re: What do I do with my investments during a downturn/recession?

Post by TwstdSista » Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:05 am

At the risk of sounding like a broken record "Stay the Course".

Keep investing (and invested) during a downturn and ignore the noise.

Nissanzx1
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Re: What do I do with my investments during a downturn/recession?

Post by Nissanzx1 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:18 am

To quote a very smart man "don't do something, just stand there"

If anything, you should be buying more equities when the market dips...

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Re: What do I do with my investments during a downturn/recession?

Post by DC3509 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:08 am

When you are 30, you should actually be rooting for a downturn and, if anything, invest even more because the prices will be very cheap and the shares are highly likely to recover.

You should read Bill Bernstein's Four Pillars of Investing if you need to ask this question. Dr. B explains the concept in very good detail.

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Re: What do I do with my investments during a downturn/recession?

Post by midareff » Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:26 am

Stay with your plan and keep buying. There is nothing better than buying stocks at a fire sale.

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Re: What do I do with my investments during a downturn/recession?

Post by Valuethinker » Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:42 am

mrplee4 wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:47 pm
Hi all,

I'm 30 years old, married, and have questions on what to do with my retirement investments exactly during a downturn/recession.

Currently, I have:
- $20,000 Cash in High Yield Savings Account at VioBank (2% APR/year)
- $41,000 in Vanguard's Traditional IRA, VFIFX TRD Fund (90/10 AA)
- $11,000 in Vanguard's Roth IRA, VFIFX TRD Fund (90/10 AA)

1) When a downturn hits, do I switch to a more conservative TRD fund? Or do I just stay the course and let it ride. Or do I buy more?

2) In addition, should I contribute more to my Traditional IRA account or to my cash savings account with 2% annual yield? (I max out Roth IRA every year). I know it's a marathon but the I'm not seeing comfortable returns with VFIFX. Should I switch to a more conservative TRD? Will that yield me more?

Thanks for all your inputs and advice.
Your investment policy should be one which can "stay the course" in both bull (up) and bear (down) markets.

Remember the stock market will turn typically 6-9 months before the economy as a whole does. For the first months recovery in stock prices will be tentative and there will be many (as there were 2009-2012) saying that it would soon be going back down.

So it's impossible to call the turn. Very easy to "catch the falling knife" on the way down or miss the recovery on the way up.

One exception. If you feel your job is at risk, you may wish to increase your emergency reserves. I suggested in late 2008 that adding an additional 6 months of basic spending needs might be appropriate (I don't actually remember exactly what I said, but it was on that order). The 2008-09 recession was so brutal that even hitherto "recession proof" areas like municipal government were affected. And it took people a long time to find alternate employment.

So one has to be alert for that.

It's also important to rebalance. Stocks will be falling and thus will be "cheap" (or cheaper) compared to their future prospects. History says that eventually stocks recover although it can take years.

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Re: What do I do with my investments during a downturn/recession?

Post by ruralavalon » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:15 am

mrplee4 wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:47 pm
Hi all,

I'm 30 years old, married, and have questions on what to do with my retirement investments exactly during a downturn/recession.

Currently, I have:
- $20,000 Cash in High Yield Savings Account at VioBank (2% APR/year)
- $41,000 in Vanguard's Traditional IRA, VFIFX TRD Fund (90/10 AA)
- $11,000 in Vanguard's Roth IRA, VFIFX TRD Fund (90/10 AA)

1) When a downturn hits, do I switch to a more conservative TRD fund? Or do I just stay the course and let it ride. Or do I buy more?
You buy more, continue your regular contributions.


mrplee4 wrote:2) In addition, should I contribute more to my Traditional IRA account or to my cash savings account with 2% annual yield? (I max out Roth IRA every year). I know it's a marathon but the I'm not seeing comfortable returns with VFIFX. Should I switch to a more conservative TRD? Will that yield me more?

Thanks for all your inputs and advice.
If you max your Roth IRA, then you cannot contribute more to your traditional IRA.

The $5.5k annual contribution limit is the total for all of your IRAs.

Does your spouse have any IRAs? Does your spouse have any work-based account (such as a 401k, 403b, 457, TSP)?

Are you contributing the annual maximum of $18.5k to your 401k? If not you could increase your contributions to your 401k.

In general it's usually better to make maximum contributions to tax-advantaged accounts before taxable investments.

Do you already have enough in the savings account to be an emergency fund, to cover 3-6 months worth of basic living expenses.?
Last edited by ruralavalon on Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What do I do with my investments during a downturn/recession?

Post by knpstr » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:16 am

During a downturn you just keep contributing money to add to your position.
Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking. -Marcus Aurelius

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Re: What do I do with my investments during a downturn/recession?

Post by Toons » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:33 am

TwstdSista wrote:
Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:05 am
At the risk of sounding like a broken record "Stay the Course".

Keep investing (and invested) during a downturn and ignore the noise.

Bingo :happy
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

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Re: What do I do with my investments during a downturn/recession?

Post by CyclingDuo » Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:18 am

knpstr wrote:
Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:16 am
During a downturn you just keep contributing money to add to your position.
YES! That, and fill your day and mind with other things for a few years. Doing nothing out of our norm investing wise was our best move during the financial crisis.

I coached Little League, rode my bike, we contributed our regular salary deductions on a monthly basis as always and tried to simply ignore all the doom and gloom. Sometimes that is a Herculean task to put all the gloom on ignore, but it was worth it when combined with a perfect time for us to be raising kids where all of our energy was spent.

Obviously, if one loses their job due to a downturn or downsizing - things will be much different. I will admit losing my job during this "booming economy" this year was a much more gregarious time to do so than if it had been 2008 or 2009. I feel for those who suffered employment loss and financial loss 10 years ago. Best to prepare the household employment wise for dual income streams and options if we enter a period of retraction in coming years.
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Re: What do I do with my investments during a downturn/recession?

Post by nisiprius » Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:50 am

1) You think about it, to make sure that your portfolio really is aligned with your risk tolerance. When the risk hasn't shown up, that alignment does not seem very important. There doesn't seem to be much really at stake. It is easy to make a lazy assumption that you are risk-tolerant, for any number of reasons. If you are now suddenly aware that "it could really happen," you want to examine your feelings. Since it is always true that "it could really happen," in theory your portfolio should already be aligned with your risk tolerance. But sometimes we don't always do what we should do.

2) In this forum, before 2008-2009, it was traditional to suggest that people think about "a 50% decline in stocks." That is, as best you can, you should think about how you feel about losing half the money you had saved up, slowly, over a period of over a decade, representing a certain number of missed vacations and keeping older cars when you wanted newer ones. As it happened, 2008-2009 turned out to be almost exactly 50%. During 2011, the stock market fell "only" 20% and it was pretty scary, and at least one behavioral economics expert--Cass Sunstein--has acknowledged selling during that decline. 20% is bad. 50% is really stressful.

You have to say, "Can I stand to see the the dollar numbers on my stock holdings get cut in half, see tens or hundreds of thousands of hard-saved dollars just completely shot to hell, and still just stay the course?" Depending on how you and your spouse co-manage money, you may also have to say "Can I look my spouse in the eye and say, 'yeah, because the stock market has fallen X%, our retirement savings have fallen Y%, and I am not planning to do anything about it?"

I don't think there's any good advice on what to do during a downturn, other than stay the course (including rebalancing if necessary*). By the time the stock market is crashing, it's too late.

The best think you can do is stop thinking "I will do XYZ if there is a downturn." Instead, start thinking "I will do nothing if there is a downturn. I will just sit there and take it." And then think "What can I do now to make sure I will be able to do nothing then?

If you decide you have too high a stock allocation, then, sure, the time to make an adjustment is now, when it won't cost you out-of-pocket dollars (although it may "cost" you foregone gains if the boom continues). (Which is the kind of "just my luck" thing that often happens). But don't cut back with the mental reservation that you'll jack it right back up "when the danger is over," think in terms of a permanent adjustment.

I feel that that hoping to dodge a downturn is a kind of greed. The stock market is risky. I don't think you can get the equity risk premium without actually taking the risk. A lot of people, even if they don't say it in these words, think to themselves "the stock market is risky for everybody else but not for me because I can see the bear market coming and get out in time."

*During 2008-2009, a) I did not sell; b) I did not change my asset allocation; c) I continued to make 401(k) contributions exactly as before until I was laid off; but d) I did not rebalance. I just couldn't. Well, I say, three out of four ain't bad. I believe I was only able to do this because I had a very conservative asset allocation.
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Re: What do I do with my investments during a downturn/recession?

Post by H-Town » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:42 pm

mrplee4 wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:47 pm
Hi all,

I'm 30 years old, married, and have questions on what to do with my retirement investments exactly during a downturn/recession.

Currently, I have:
- $20,000 Cash in High Yield Savings Account at VioBank (2% APR/year)
- $41,000 in Vanguard's Traditional IRA, VFIFX TRD Fund (90/10 AA)
- $11,000 in Vanguard's Roth IRA, VFIFX TRD Fund (90/10 AA)

1) When a downturn hits, do I switch to a more conservative TRD fund? Or do I just stay the course and let it ride. Or do I buy more?

2) In addition, should I contribute more to my Traditional IRA account or to my cash savings account with 2% annual yield? (I max out Roth IRA every year). I know it's a marathon but the I'm not seeing comfortable returns with VFIFX. Should I switch to a more conservative TRD? Will that yield me more?

Thanks for all your inputs and advice.
You get down on your knees and thank the market god for making it happen. This is your chance to get rich. It typically happens twice during a generation. Take it and run with it.

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Re: What do I do with my investments during a downturn/recession?

Post by asif408 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:11 pm

Because you own target date funds, you don't have to do anything during a downturn (or an upturn for that matter) other than to keep buying shares of the funds. The funds will rebalance themselves for you, as they are a mix of stocks and bonds. When there is a downturn your funds will be buying more stocks and selling more bonds to maintain the allocation, and when stocks are going up it will be buying more bonds and selling stocks to maintain the allocation, which is the proper thing to do.

Your 1) and 2) statements suggest you don't understand the rebalancing process, but fortunately the funds you own do, so I suggest sticking with what you have and read some more about how the target date funds you own opearte here: https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... etirement/#/ and how rebalancing works here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Rebalancing

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Re: What do I do with my investments during a downturn/recession?

Post by tesuzuki2002 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:54 pm

mrplee4 wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:47 pm
Hi all,

I'm 30 years old, married, and have questions on what to do with my retirement investments exactly during a downturn/recession.

Currently, I have:
- $20,000 Cash in High Yield Savings Account at VioBank (2% APR/year)
- $41,000 in Vanguard's Traditional IRA, VFIFX TRD Fund (90/10 AA)
- $11,000 in Vanguard's Roth IRA, VFIFX TRD Fund (90/10 AA)

1) When a downturn hits, do I switch to a more conservative TRD fund? Or do I just stay the course and let it ride. Or do I buy more?

2) In addition, should I contribute more to my Traditional IRA account or to my cash savings account with 2% annual yield? (I max out Roth IRA every year). I know it's a marathon but the I'm not seeing comfortable returns with VFIFX. Should I switch to a more conservative TRD? Will that yield me more?

Thanks for all your inputs and advice.
when the downturn / correction hits.... BUT AS MUCH AS YOU CAN!!! That is the time to make money.

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Re: What do I do with my investments during a downturn/recession?

Post by WhiteMaxima » Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:03 pm

Timing market is difficult. I remember during 2008 crisis, market was dropping like waterfall, if you sell in that market, you sure will loose a lot. I did nothing, watch my asset be half on paper and listening bad news every day. Who knows Fed is going to bail us out and 10 more years of bull market is coming. So don't do anything. Keep enough cash in case you have emergency (3 years living expense). And a good balanced AA (70/30. 60/40). You shouldn't temp to move when other people are making big money. And you can also watch people loosing shirt during a bear when they leverage too much. Bull market is boring because all people make money. Bear is more excited, you will watch greedy people lose everything and you can DCA at very good asset at attractive price. The next 10 year might be very boring because interest rate is back to normal and balance sheet. You real return might be just 4 to 5%. You will see bank offer CDs at 3% or even 5%. Everything will become 'normal'. I will still put a significant portion of my asset in equity. 4-5% real return is still better than Bank CD at 3 or 5% when real inflation is 4 or 6%. Depend on how soon you would need that money. If you are 60-70s, be sure to have significant portion of you asset in more stable investment (not necessary CDs, Bond, value dividend paying stocks, etc)

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Re: What do I do with my investments during a downturn/recession?

Post by magicrat » Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:32 pm

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=245004&p=3842668#p3842668

You had a very similar post in March (above). It sounds to me like 90% equities is simply too aggressive for your personal risk tolerance, regardless of market conditions.

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Re: What do I do with my investments during a downturn/recession?

Post by gougou » Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:10 pm

During a downturn, you may find it difficult to keep buying. If you lose your job during the downturn, you may need to sell your investments to pay for mortgage, property tax and other expenses (and your 90/10 portfolio also suffered a huge loss but you may have to sell).

Without more information about your job security and whether you have debt and other obligations, it is hard to make a call. Most people in 2009 didn't choose to default on their mortgages, they really ran out of money.

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Re: What do I do with my investments during a downturn/recession?

Post by Rwsawbones » Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:41 pm

I was born in 1941. My mother used to say youth is wasted on the young. She was not original but she was right. My first wasted opportunity was 1973-5. I invested as much as I could during that time but being young it wasn’t much. I did invest regularly though IRA type plans and also in non tax deferred monthly deductions from my checking accounts. Having read about the Tulip craze in Popular Delusions and Madness of Crowds it was apparent to me that buying anything that ended in dot com in the late 90s was not a good idea. Then along came 2000-3 another great opportunity which I was able to take advantage of but I was no longer young. I despaired of having another opportunity then along came 2007-9 which was probably my last great opportunity. I was then and am now still working. The opportunities noted above have swollen my assets so there is no financial need for me to work. It is great to have the choice. Even the messily $5000 that I did manage to invest 1973-5 has swollen to over $120,000. Yes in 2007-9 my portfolio took almost a 7 figure depreciation but it came roaring back and more. Having said that you need to establish your own risk tolerance. An appropriate emergency fund in cash like holdings can help one sleep better. You may need to have a significant amount in bond funds just enable you to not sell your stocks in disgust and fear at the next bear market bottom. The bonds will be a drag on your returns but not nearly as bad as dumping your stocks when in fact you should buy more. I hope my comments will help you take advantage of your youth. Incidentally Tulipsvare at least nice to look at. The same cannot be said of bitcoins

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Re: What do I do with my investments during a downturn/recession?

Post by bottlecap » Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:20 pm

Find the correct asset allocation in your target retirement fund and do nothing.

If sounds like your current allocation may be too aggressive for you.

Good luck,

JT

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