U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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duffer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by duffer » Sat Sep 01, 2018 6:52 pm

bobcat2 wrote:
Sat Sep 01, 2018 3:00 pm
duffer wrote:
Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:20 pm
I'm afraid I don't see your point.
The point is that in the first four weeks of 2018 the stock market was up 7.7%. In the seven months plus since then the stock market has been up 1.3% - which is hardly continuing to soar. :(

BobK
Did you notice that the S&P is up 3.25% in the last four weeks--soaring, so to speak.

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oldzey
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by oldzey » Sat Sep 01, 2018 7:03 pm

Engineer250 wrote:
Sat Sep 01, 2018 4:35 pm
SGM wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:06 am
My buddy Skysoldier was number 1 at 10 AM in his prediction of the S&P. He is torn between wanting to win the contest and have bragging rights or wanting me to be right with my high prediction. He has come down on the side of his portfolio and he wants my high prediction to be acciurate. I will buy him a cup of coffee tomorrow for hitting number 1.
I am beginning to worry I undershot with my prediction, but we'll see. I'm #120 now with another 2+% to go. A lot better than my performance in the hedge fund contest.

Thanks to whomever started this thread. I love the freefall one too so am pleased there's another one we can post on if the market goes up by a half a percent rather than down.
I thought I was overly-bullish in my prediction (2986.42) for the Boglehead Contest 2018, but the S&P 500 Index is currently at 2901.52. :shock: :thumbsup

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"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

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GoldStar
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoldStar » Sat Sep 01, 2018 7:49 pm

Engineer250 wrote:
Sat Sep 01, 2018 4:35 pm

Thanks to whomever started this thread
. I love the freefall one too so am pleased there's another one we can post on if the market goes up by a half a percent rather than down.
Your welcome.
:sharebeer

hdas
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by hdas » Thu Sep 06, 2018 9:53 am

The cheer-leading sentiment of this thread was a beautiful indicator, good for 45 handles so far.

Cheers :greedy

retiringwhen
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by retiringwhen » Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:10 am

oldzey wrote:
Sat Sep 01, 2018 7:03 pm
Engineer250 wrote:
Sat Sep 01, 2018 4:35 pm
SGM wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:06 am

I thought I was overly-bullish in my prediction (2986.42) for the Boglehead Contest 2018, but the S&P 500 Index is currently at 2901.52. :shock: :thumbsup
it is much too early to celebrate. I voted for 3% price appreciation this year @ 2764.24

My number is still within range.

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goodenyou
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by goodenyou » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:20 am

After several bad days, we can change the title to US Stocks Continue to Sore!
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" | "The best years you have left are the ones you have right now"

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:57 am

goodenyou wrote:
Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:20 am
After several bad days, we can change the title to US Stocks Continue to Sore!
I had some uneasiness when this thread popped up. Sure enough, the market has drifted downward since. To my dismay, the thread caught on.

This reminds me of the "Elves", the panel of technical analysts who weekly gave out bullish or bearish signals on Wall $treet Week with Louis Rukeyser. The almost perfect contrary indicator, when the elves were bullish, the market fell. When the elves were bearish, the markets rose. It was a long time ago, but I remember the elves threw in the towel and became bullish with Gail Dudack being the lone bear on the panel. The panel remained bullish and consistently Dudack was the lone bear on the panel. Rukeyser fired Dudack. Not long after, the market crashed and Dudack was proved right. Later on, in disgust, Rukeyser fired the whole panel and eliminated this feature from his program.

As I recall, he also announced the sentiment of money managers on Wall Street. Negative sentiment proved to be a good thing. It is that you need a supply of pessimists who can change their mind and become optimists, buying stocks and propelling markets higher. When the last pessimist throws in the towel and buys stocks in a panic, the bull market is over. Conversely, bear markets is a slow, painful process of optimists giving up and becoming pessimists. When the last optimist sells his stock in utter disgust, the bear market is over.

I have had a lot of fun with this, I don't really believe that Boglehead threads move the stock market. I do however believe that market sentiment is important. When people get too confident, that is a sign trouble is ahead. Bull markets make geniuses of us all. What I will say is that these threads, "soar" and "freefall" give an indication of what people are thinking.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Doom&Gloom » Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:12 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:57 am
goodenyou wrote:
Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:20 am
After several bad days, we can change the title to US Stocks Continue to Sore!
I had some uneasiness when this thread popped up. Sure enough, the market has drifted downward since. To my dismay, the thread caught on.

This reminds me of the "Elves", the panel of technical analysts who weekly gave out bullish or bearish signals on Wall $treet Week with Louis Rukeyser. The almost perfect contrary indicator, when the elves were bullish, the market fell. When the elves were bearish, the markets rose. It was a long time ago, but I remember the elves threw in the towel and became bullish with Gail Dudack being the lone bear on the panel. The panel remained bullish and consistently Dudack was the lone bear on the panel. Rukeyser fired Dudack. Not long after, the market crashed and Dudack was proved right. Later on, in disgust, Rukeyser fired the whole panel and eliminated this feature from his program.

As I recall, he also announced the sentiment of money managers on Wall Street. Negative sentiment proved to be a good thing. It is that you need a supply of pessimists who can change their mind and become optimists, buying stocks and propelling markets higher. When the last pessimist throws in the towel and buys stocks in a panic, the bull market is over. Conversely, bear markets is a slow, painful process of optimists giving up and becoming pessimists. When the last optimist sells his stock in utter disgust, the bear market is over.

I have had a lot of fun with this, I don't really believe that Boglehead threads move the stock market. I do however believe that market sentiment is important. When people get too confident, that is a sign trouble is ahead. Bull markets make geniuses of us all. What I will say is that these threads, "soar" and "freefall" give an indication of what people are thinking.
My recollection is that when Rukeyser eliminated the "elves," he replaced them with a set of ten technical indicators. I thought the "elves" was one of the most entertaining parts of WSW.

No guarantee that my recollection is accurate :happy

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ruralavalon
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by ruralavalon » Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:41 pm

goodenyou wrote:
Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:20 am
After several bad days, we can change the title to US Stocks Continue to Sore!
Made me laugh :D :D :D
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:16 pm

Doom&Gloom wrote:
Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:12 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:57 am
goodenyou wrote:
Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:20 am
After several bad days, we can change the title to US Stocks Continue to Sore!
I had some uneasiness when this thread popped up. Sure enough, the market has drifted downward since. To my dismay, the thread caught on.

This reminds me of the "Elves", the panel of technical analysts who weekly gave out bullish or bearish signals on Wall $treet Week with Louis Rukeyser. The almost perfect contrary indicator, when the elves were bullish, the market fell. When the elves were bearish, the markets rose. It was a long time ago, but I remember the elves threw in the towel and became bullish with Gail Dudack being the lone bear on the panel. The panel remained bullish and consistently Dudack was the lone bear on the panel. Rukeyser fired Dudack. Not long after, the market crashed and Dudack was proved right. Later on, in disgust, Rukeyser fired the whole panel and eliminated this feature from his program.

As I recall, he also announced the sentiment of money managers on Wall Street. Negative sentiment proved to be a good thing. It is that you need a supply of pessimists who can change their mind and become optimists, buying stocks and propelling markets higher. When the last pessimist throws in the towel and buys stocks in a panic, the bull market is over. Conversely, bear markets is a slow, painful process of optimists giving up and becoming pessimists. When the last optimist sells his stock in utter disgust, the bear market is over.

I have had a lot of fun with this, I don't really believe that Boglehead threads move the stock market. I do however believe that market sentiment is important. When people get too confident, that is a sign trouble is ahead. Bull markets make geniuses of us all. What I will say is that these threads, "soar" and "freefall" give an indication of what people are thinking.
My recollection is that when Rukeyser eliminated the "elves," he replaced them with a set of ten technical indicators. I thought the "elves" was one of the most entertaining parts of WSW.

No guarantee that my recollection is accurate :happy
I had also forgotten that Lou Rukeyser himself got fired as host of Wall $treet Week and was replaced by the folks at Fortune Magazine. Rukeyser started his own show which was pretty much the format of the old Wall $treet Week. He then got ill and the CNBC anchors ran the show for a few months until it was announced that Rukeyser wasn't coming back. The show was cancelled but it was a shame, I thought the CNBC anchors did a fine job hosting the show. I miss Lou. He and I spent a lot of Friday nights together by television. Also miss Paul Kangas at Nightly Business Report.
A fool and his money are good for business.

limeyx
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by limeyx » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:44 pm

goodenyou wrote:
Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:20 am
After several bad days, we can change the title to US Stocks Continue to Sore!
I'm selling everything

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid » Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:23 pm

limeyx wrote:
Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:44 pm
goodenyou wrote:
Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:20 am
After several bad days, we can change the title to US Stocks Continue to Sore!
I'm selling everything
Evidently, you are not alone. Markets down again today, though not by a lot.
A fool and his money are good for business.

H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by H-Town » Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:26 pm

limeyx wrote:
Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:44 pm
goodenyou wrote:
Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:20 am
After several bad days, we can change the title to US Stocks Continue to Sore!
I'm selling everything
Your farm too? :wink:

limeyx
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by limeyx » Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:08 pm

H-Town wrote:
Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:26 pm
limeyx wrote:
Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:44 pm
goodenyou wrote:
Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:20 am
After several bad days, we can change the title to US Stocks Continue to Sore!
I'm selling everything
Your farm too? :wink:
I'd have to buy a farm first but yeah hahaha

limeyx
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by limeyx » Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:08 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:23 pm
limeyx wrote:
Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:44 pm
goodenyou wrote:
Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:20 am
After several bad days, we can change the title to US Stocks Continue to Sore!
I'm selling everything
Evidently, you are not alone. Markets down again today, though not by a lot.
Yeah. I didn't actually sell anything ... burned too many times trying to buy & sell and always on the wrong end of the deal

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid » Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:33 pm

limeyx wrote:
Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:08 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:23 pm
limeyx wrote:
Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:44 pm
goodenyou wrote:
Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:20 am
After several bad days, we can change the title to US Stocks Continue to Sore!
I'm selling everything
Evidently, you are not alone. Markets down again today, though not by a lot.
Yeah. I didn't actually sell anything ... burned too many times trying to buy & sell and always on the wrong end of the deal
Darn it! If you had capitulated and sold everything, the markets would be soaring again on Monday. We probably will see another down day on Monday. :wink:
A fool and his money are good for business.

Dottie57
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Dottie57 » Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:16 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:53 am
WhiteMaxima wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:44 am
feel like year 2000 again.
Not to me. There is optimism here but not the euphoria of the late 1990's. Not even close in my opinion.
At that time I had a co-worker who insisted we were heading to an economy where we wouldn’t have t pay for anything - our information would be sold and it would cost us nothing to live. My brain hurt after that conversation. He couldn’t tell me how companies making needed products would earn money.

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid » Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:21 pm

Dottie57 wrote:
Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:16 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:53 am
WhiteMaxima wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:44 am
feel like year 2000 again.
Not to me. There is optimism here but not the euphoria of the late 1990's. Not even close in my opinion.
At that time I had a co-worker who insisted we were heading to an economy where we wouldn’t have t pay for anything - our information would be sold and it would cost us nothing to live. My brain hurt after that conversation. He couldn’t tell me how companies making needed products would earn money.
Yep, people were saying a lot of stupid stuff in those days. It was like euphoria blinded them and it seemed that common sense just ceased to exist. I suppose higher and higher stock prices were releasing some sort of brain chemical that induced a euphoric state. But that doesn't last too long and hard reality causes the castles in the air to come tumbling down.
A fool and his money are good for business.

Dottie57
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Dottie57 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:31 am

nedsaid wrote:
Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:21 pm
Dottie57 wrote:
Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:16 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:53 am
WhiteMaxima wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:44 am
feel like year 2000 again.
Not to me. There is optimism here but not the euphoria of the late 1990's. Not even close in my opinion.
At that time I had a co-worker who insisted we were heading to an economy where we wouldn’t have t pay for anything - our information would be sold and it would cost us nothing to live. My brain hurt after that conversation. He couldn’t tell me how companies making needed products would earn money.
Yep, people were saying a lot of stupid stuff in those days. It was like euphoria blinded them and it seemed that common sense just ceased to exist. I suppose higher and higher stock prices were releasing some sort of brain chemical that induced a euphoric state. But that doesn't last too long and hard reality causes the castles in the air to come tumbling down.
Stock price euphoria and internet euphoria = madness. At least in my opinion.

2015
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 2015 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:47 am

nedsaid wrote:
Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:21 pm
Dottie57 wrote:
Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:16 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:53 am
WhiteMaxima wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:44 am
Yep, people were saying a lot of stupid stuff in those days.
I love the mention up thread that bull markets make geniuses of us all.

People are still saying lots of stupid stuff. They just think it's everyone else that's saying the stupid stuff. And they won't find out they're the ones saying stupid stuff until just before the tsunami hits when the tide evaporates. This is as sure a prediction you can make because it's happened repeatedly for as long as there have been markets.

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corn18
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by corn18 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:58 am

Eeeeaaagllllle! (Scrubs reference)

B. Wellington
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by B. Wellington » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:29 am

nedsaid wrote:
Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:16 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote:
Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:12 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:57 am
goodenyou wrote:
Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:20 am
After several bad days, we can change the title to US Stocks Continue to Sore!
I had some uneasiness when this thread popped up. Sure enough, the market has drifted downward since. To my dismay, the thread caught on.

This reminds me of the "Elves", the panel of technical analysts who weekly gave out bullish or bearish signals on Wall $treet Week with Louis Rukeyser. The almost perfect contrary indicator, when the elves were bullish, the market fell. When the elves were bearish, the markets rose. It was a long time ago, but I remember the elves threw in the towel and became bullish with Gail Dudack being the lone bear on the panel. The panel remained bullish and consistently Dudack was the lone bear on the panel. Rukeyser fired Dudack. Not long after, the market crashed and Dudack was proved right. Later on, in disgust, Rukeyser fired the whole panel and eliminated this feature from his program.

As I recall, he also announced the sentiment of money managers on Wall Street. Negative sentiment proved to be a good thing. It is that you need a supply of pessimists who can change their mind and become optimists, buying stocks and propelling markets higher. When the last pessimist throws in the towel and buys stocks in a panic, the bull market is over. Conversely, bear markets is a slow, painful process of optimists giving up and becoming pessimists. When the last optimist sells his stock in utter disgust, the bear market is over.

I have had a lot of fun with this, I don't really believe that Boglehead threads move the stock market. I do however believe that market sentiment is important. When people get too confident, that is a sign trouble is ahead. Bull markets make geniuses of us all. What I will say is that these threads, "soar" and "freefall" give an indication of what people are thinking.
My recollection is that when Rukeyser eliminated the "elves," he replaced them with a set of ten technical indicators. I thought the "elves" was one of the most entertaining parts of WSW.

No guarantee that my recollection is accurate :happy
I had also forgotten that Lou Rukeyser himself got fired as host of Wall $treet Week and was replaced by the folks at Fortune Magazine. Rukeyser started his own show which was pretty much the format of the old Wall $treet Week. He then got ill and the CNBC anchors ran the show for a few months until it was announced that Rukeyser wasn't coming back. The show was cancelled but it was a shame, I thought the CNBC anchors did a fine job hosting the show. I miss Lou. He and I spent a lot of Friday nights together by television. Also miss Paul Kangas at Nightly Business Report.
^^^ nedsaid, I too miss Lou and Paul. As well as the many guests that they interviewed. (One was Michael Price money manager for the former Mutual Series funds which started me to invest in mutual funds. It was one of the few places for the average investor to get any kind of information back then.

That said, the "elves" as I recall were terrible at their stock selections as well. One example was a strong buy for Worldcom....a few weeks later the company was in serious trouble..."Be fearful when others are greedy"

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:02 pm

B. Wellington wrote:
Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:29 am

^^^ nedsaid, I too miss Lou and Paul. As well as the many guests that they interviewed. (One was Michael Price money manager for the former Mutual Series funds which started me to invest in mutual funds. It was one of the few places for the average investor to get any kind of information back then.

That said, the "elves" as I recall were terrible at their stock selections as well. One example was a strong buy for Worldcom....a few weeks later the company was in serious trouble..."Be fearful when others are greedy"
John Bogle was a guest on the show and was a member of the Wall $treet Week Hall of Fame. Also Peter Lynch, John Templeton, and Chris Davis come to mind as guests. Someone did an analysis of the stock picks of panelists and guests and found that those picks trailed the market. Oh well, it was good clean fun.
A fool and his money are good for business.

limeyx
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by limeyx » Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:48 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:33 pm
limeyx wrote:
Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:08 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:23 pm
limeyx wrote:
Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:44 pm
goodenyou wrote:
Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:20 am
After several bad days, we can change the title to US Stocks Continue to Sore!
I'm selling everything
Evidently, you are not alone. Markets down again today, though not by a lot.
Yeah. I didn't actually sell anything ... burned too many times trying to buy & sell and always on the wrong end of the deal
Darn it! If you had capitulated and sold everything, the markets would be soaring again on Monday. We probably will see another down day on Monday. :wink:
Yup, it's double-reverse psychology !

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oldzey
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by oldzey » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:32 pm

This post needs some music...

Up, Up And Away
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

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GoldStar
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoldStar » Tue Sep 11, 2018 5:31 am

oldzey wrote:
Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:32 pm
This post needs some music...

Up, Up And Away
:sharebeer

MJW
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MJW » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:35 pm

Nothing but up from here, my friends. Only good times ahead. :moneybag



:|

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Doom&Gloom » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:02 pm

MJW wrote:
Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:35 pm
Nothing but up from here, my friends. Only good times ahead. :moneybag



:|
Yep.

Looks like I am going to have to figure out how to change my username 8-)

Freefun
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Freefun » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:51 am

Remember when you wanted what you currently have?

WhiteMaxima
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by WhiteMaxima » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:03 am

Good. I am still 70/30 in. But planning to reduce to 60/40.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:53 pm

I'm up 11.37% YTD, a little over 3% above January's highs. I'd take this every year from here on out. :beer

That being said, the unemployment rate being this low may portend a recession within a year or two.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

hdas
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by hdas » Mon Sep 17, 2018 2:57 pm

Nasdaq-100 is 250 handles below the bogleheads high, SP also below, but holding better........the boglehead euphoria signal still giving. :greedy

ps. to add insult to injury there's a fellow traveler boasting his 11% return in this thread.

Cheers

gd
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by gd » Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:13 am

Freefun wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:51 am
This time it's different lol!

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/12/heres-h ... ecade.html
That article was an unusually good presentation of vacuity.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:27 am

After yesterday's 'buying opportunity', stocks are right back up.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

Freefun
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Freefun » Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:39 am

gd wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:13 am
Freefun wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:51 am
This time it's different lol!

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/12/heres-h ... ecade.html
That article was an unusually good presentation of vacuity.
If CNBC says the market will deliver 9% returns every year then it's time to go all in lol !
Remember when you wanted what you currently have?

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ruralavalon
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by ruralavalon » Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:44 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:27 am
After yesterday's 'buying opportunity', stocks are right back up.
The S&P 500 index is up 0.61% so far today :D .
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid » Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:55 pm

ruralavalon wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:44 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:27 am
After yesterday's 'buying opportunity', stocks are right back up.
The S&P 500 index is up 0.61% so far today :D .
I admit it. I posted in the "freefall" thread yesterday because I wanted the markets to go up so that I could rebalance. A few folks responded and by golly the market was up strongly today! I also rebalanced today. Woo Hoo!! Nedsaid, the market manipulator.
A fool and his money are good for business.

retiringwhen
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by retiringwhen » Tue Sep 18, 2018 3:11 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:55 pm
ruralavalon wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:44 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:27 am
After yesterday's 'buying opportunity', stocks are right back up.
The S&P 500 index is up 0.61% so far today :D .
I admit it. I posted in the "freefall" thread yesterday because I wanted the markets to go up so that I could rebalance. A few folks responded and by golly the market was up strongly today! I also rebalanced today. Woo Hoo!! Nedsaid, the market manipulator.
darn you, I have been trying to re-balance INTO US Stocks this past month

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Sep 18, 2018 3:20 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:55 pm
ruralavalon wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:44 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:27 am
After yesterday's 'buying opportunity', stocks are right back up.
The S&P 500 index is up 0.61% so far today :D .
I admit it. I posted in the "freefall" thread yesterday because I wanted the markets to go up so that I could rebalance. A few folks responded and by golly the market was up strongly today! I also rebalanced today. Woo Hoo!! Nedsaid, the market manipulator.
Sadly, I now have to report you to the SEC. At least you'll know what those black cars that will shortly be parked outside your house are there for.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid » Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:02 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 3:20 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:55 pm
ruralavalon wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:44 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:27 am
After yesterday's 'buying opportunity', stocks are right back up.
The S&P 500 index is up 0.61% so far today :D .
I admit it. I posted in the "freefall" thread yesterday because I wanted the markets to go up so that I could rebalance. A few folks responded and by golly the market was up strongly today! I also rebalanced today. Woo Hoo!! Nedsaid, the market manipulator.
Sadly, I now have to report you to the SEC. At least you'll know what those black cars that will shortly be parked outside your house are there for.
I ought to start my own Hedge Fund. Going long and short on the "Soar" and "Freefall" threads. Short on "Soar" when it pops up, and long on "Freefall" when it leads. Cliff Asness, are you reading this?
A fool and his money are good for business.

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid » Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:11 pm

retiringwhen wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 3:11 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:55 pm
ruralavalon wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:44 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:27 am
After yesterday's 'buying opportunity', stocks are right back up.
The S&P 500 index is up 0.61% so far today :D .
I admit it. I posted in the "freefall" thread yesterday because I wanted the markets to go up so that I could rebalance. A few folks responded and by golly the market was up strongly today! I also rebalanced today. Woo Hoo!! Nedsaid, the market manipulator.
darn you, I have been trying to re-balance INTO US Stocks this past month
Obviously, Boglehead threads do not move the markets. I am sort of kidding here. But I admit I did post on the "Freefall" thread to see what would happen. I wanted a big up day to sell stocks into.

I have had a lot of fun with this but I don't recommend timing the markets based on the "Soar" and the "Freefall" threads. Actually, I have been looking to pull the trigger on another round of stocks to bonds rebalancing for a couple weeks now and today looked like a pretty good day to do it.

For quite a while, the "Freefall" thread seemed like a good contrary indicator. Obviously, it didn't work from August 2015 through February 2016 during which we had a 20% correction. The thread popping up didn't stop the near bear market. It won't stop the next bear market either.

It does illustrate the point that you don't want too much optimism during a bull market. You need a good supply of pessimists who could change their minds, become optimists and buy stocks, moving the market higher. What you don't want is a situation of where everyone who was going to buy has already bought.
A fool and his money are good for business.

MJW
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MJW » Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:19 pm

I think now is a great time to throw the rest of my savings into the market...maybe even take out a loan to sweeten the pot!

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid » Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:27 pm

MJW wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:19 pm
I think now is a great time to throw the rest of my savings into the market...maybe even take out a loan to sweeten the pot!
Well, today was a good up day but yesterday was a down day. You missed your chance. :wink:
A fool and his money are good for business.

MJW
Posts: 443
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Location: Pacific Northwest

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MJW » Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:08 pm

nedsaid wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:27 pm
MJW wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:19 pm
I think now is a great time to throw the rest of my savings into the market...maybe even take out a loan to sweeten the pot!
Well, today was a good up day but yesterday was a down day. You missed your chance. :wink:
Naturally I'm going to panic-sell now.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:30 am

Soaring again. 8-)
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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AnalogKid22
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by AnalogKid22 » Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:58 am

Well, the DOW has been soaring this week, but the S&P 500, which I assume most Boglehead's track, is only eeking upwards.

All this media noise around tariffs has appeared to be the primary influencer. Apparently, tariff concerns have eased up this week, increasing investor confidence, but, no one knows what tomorrow holds. I have to wonder that if not for the tariff threats, would the market be much higher or would the media have latched onto something else that would have had such a dramatic influence on the market?

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ruralavalon
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by ruralavalon » Thu Sep 20, 2018 12:07 pm

The S&P 500 index is up 0.84% so far today :!: :!: :!:
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

amitb00
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by amitb00 » Thu Sep 20, 2018 4:23 pm

Dow and S&P 500 soaring to new highs. Enjoying the ride. Wonder when will this end and don’t want to think about that😁

H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by H-Town » Thu Sep 20, 2018 4:56 pm

amitb00 wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 4:23 pm
Dow and S&P 500 soaring to new highs. Enjoying the ride. Wonder when will this end and don’t want to think about that😁
Not a good thing if you're in accumulation phase. But if you're close to your target to retire, then I'd raise my glass to you :beer

greenback
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by greenback » Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:47 pm

H-Town wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 4:56 pm
amitb00 wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 4:23 pm
Dow and S&P 500 soaring to new highs. Enjoying the ride. Wonder when will this end and don’t want to think about that😁
Not a good thing if you're in accumulation phase. But if you're close to your target to retire, then I'd raise my glass to you :beer
I can relate to your comment more than i'd like to admit! I started my accumulation phase around ~19,000 (DOW) so the earnings are tiny compared to a large portfolio. I wish I was in accumulation earlier!

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