Test your cognitive biases

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MathWizard
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by MathWizard » Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:52 am

invst65 wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:33 am
ResearchMed wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:39 pm
Okay, so after all of these Supremely Wonderful Scores, who will 'fess up to a lesser score, or an outright "low" one?

Also, do the "confidence" scores actually factor in to the "result", or is that just for the research in some other way?

RM
I confess. My score was zero because I found the very first question too taxing for my brain.
Do you mean the question of "Do you consent to this test?"

I may have flunked if the point of the study was either
how many people can I get to answer my other questions if I put two math related questions first, or
what are the characteristics of the people who take these kinds of tests.

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MichaelRpdx
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by MichaelRpdx » Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:00 am

ResearchMed wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:39 pm
Okay, so after all of these Supremely Wonderful Scores, who will 'fess up to a lesser score, or an outright "low" one?

Also, do the "confidence" scores actually factor in to the "result", or is that just for the research in some other way?

RM
me. I'm in the middle. I am also surprised.
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nedsaid
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by nedsaid » Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:04 am

VictoriaF wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:02 pm
Here is a good test of your cognitive biases, aka irrationality:

Start reading the BBC feature at http://www.bbc.com/future/story/2018081 ... ncertainty and click on "Click here to measure your risk literacy."

I have scored "better than 75%-100% of college graduates" but that does not count because I knew the basis of all questions.

What is your score?

Victoria
I am reminded of an IQ test that I took online a few years ago. I scored above average but I didn't consider the questions hugely difficult. I suppose the objective of the test was to make people feel good about themselves, my guess is that they generously added 20 points to whatever the actual score was. If you want people to visit your website and buy whatever product, you don't want to tell them that they are dolts with below average intelligence.

I also remember taking an SRI personality test. They kept coming back with similar questions and it wasn't too hard to figure out what they wanted. Supposedly, I failed the test but the fellow hired me anyway. I wound up with a 10 plus year career with that organization.

I am skeptical of such tests, I don't like being in somebody else's test tube. There can be bias in the questions to help the questioner get the results he wants.

Testing is certainly useful but one has to be aware of its limitations.

So Victoria, welcome to Lake Wobegon where everyone is good looking and above average.
A fool and his money are good for business.

abracadabra11
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by abracadabra11 » Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:07 am

carolinaman wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:48 am
N1CKV wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:18 am
I got 25-50%.
I am not only risk adverse by nature, but I also have no real need to take risk. I have had bad dealings with debt from individuals so that sways me far away from waiting to collect. All of which I believe skewed my answers different than the desired results ("desired" for whatever reason).

Additionally I absolutely hate statistics. I struggled with it in college, just not my cup of tea. I am an Accountant, I can do math just fine but I like absolutes.

I have no idea what was being "tested". The answers being sought were subjective.
I scored poorly too. People who know me professionally and personally would be shocked at my score. I am a very rational, open minded and logical thinker. I have a body of work that is certainly contrary to this test. Either I am not as good as I think or this test is just silly academic crap.
I'd argue two points:
1. There are plenty of logical thinkers that struggle with statistically-oriented decision making and suffer from cognitive biases. In fact, I recall a passage by Danny Kahnemann and Amos Tversky were they gave a similarly-focused test to a group of statisticians and they performed rather poorly.
2. The 'right' choice according to traditional economics in many of these instances is to optimize expected value, even when that contradicts what many people prefer. Interestingly, it's been repeatedly demonstrated that we (i.e. most of us) will make seemingly contradictory choices when faced with gains/losses of the same magnitude.

Same top score message (i.e. better than 75-100% of all college educated individuals). But I'm pretty sure I would have made mistakes if I had faced some of those choices in real life rather than undergoing a 'test' where I applied a bit more rigor.

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ChowYunPhat
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by ChowYunPhat » Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:07 am

Interesting test Victoria and fun. I also got the "better than 75%-100% of college graduates" but like other posters the math major probably helped a bit here.

In fairness, I probably would have sided with DM below had I scored lower :)
DanMahowny wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:45 am
I scored "better than 75%-100% of college graduates".

Full disclosure- if my result sucked, I would've thought, "That test was stupid." and I wouldn't have posted my result.
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Hayden
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by Hayden » Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:14 am

same result - "This is the highest score one can receive on this test"

I did my Ph.D. research in risk assessment, so I guess that's not a surprise.

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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by carolinaman » Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:18 am

abracadabra11 wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:07 am
carolinaman wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:48 am
N1CKV wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:18 am
I got 25-50%.

I have no idea what was being "tested". The answers being sought were subjective.
I scored poorly too. People who know me professionally and personally would be shocked at my score. I am a very rational, open minded and logical thinker. I have a body of work that is certainly contrary to this test. Either I am not as good as I think or this test is just silly academic crap.
I'd argue two points:
1. There are plenty of logical thinkers that struggle with statistically-oriented decision making and suffer from cognitive biases. In fact, I recall a passage by Danny Kahnemann and Amos Tversky were they gave a similarly-focused test to a group of statisticians and they performed rather poorly.
2. The 'right' choice according to traditional economics in many of these instances is to optimize expected value, even when that contradicts what many people prefer. Interestingly, it's been repeatedly demonstrated that we (i.e. most of us) will make seemingly contradictory choices when faced with gains/losses of the same magnitude.

Same top score message (i.e. better than 75-100% of all college educated individuals). But I'm pretty sure I would have made mistakes if I had faced some of those choices in real life rather than undergoing a 'test' where I applied a bit more rigor.
I took the test again, mainly to see if I had better understanding of questions. To my surprise, I scored 75 to 100% better than all college educated individuals and received highest score possible. Other than paying a little more attention to the questions, not sure what was different. There seemed to be a few questions that were different.

Maybe if I was a little (or a lot) smarter, I could understand this. I am still very dubious of it as a valid means of testing cognitive bias.

kelvan80
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by kelvan80 » Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:19 am

I got 50 to 75% while nursing a baby. I was actually pretty proud since I'm asleep deprived from the last four years at least.

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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by tc101 » Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:28 am

They don't tell you where you made mistakes, they just give you a score, so I think the test is a waste of time.
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MNGopher
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by MNGopher » Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:36 am

I scored 50-75%

Hey wait, were calculators allowed? :)

Dantes
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by Dantes » Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:42 am

I got the top score. Probably the rigorous training I got back in the seventies for my Library Science degree.

2015
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by 2015 » Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:49 am

Agcentral wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 9:48 pm
I apologize to the Bogle master family as I am afraid I embarrassed the group… I’m in the 25-50% quartile.
As you can see, I managed to drag the group down with my poor test results.

Still… I think you high scoring folks owe me a Thank You as (just like in high school where the results of the test curves are set) someone has to ride the bottom to make you look good.

Happy for you, ashamed at myself. Somethings never change.
I wouldn't feel bad at all. I got to the first question and thought, "I'm currently steeped in the quagmire otherwise known as getting one's house ready to sell. Why I am I wasting my time on something that is only going to confirm what I already know: my decision-making will always be highly suspect due to cognitive bias."

For the record, my lifelong tradition has been to score poorly on just about everything (grad school being the exception). OTOH, this has never precluded possibility from occurring and even currently expanding in my life. It's good to remember that most of what society tells us we must be, do, and have in order to create and transform satisfactorily in our lives is false.

Now excuse me while I go enjoy the "fun" challenge of painting my closets...

letsgobobby
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by letsgobobby » Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:30 pm

As a shrink with an interest in behavioral finance and personal finance, I would have been humiliated by any score below the top. Fortunately that did not happen and I can go back to my job next week with no shame.

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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by EHEngineer » Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:40 pm

letsgobobby wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:30 pm
As a shrink with an interest in behavioral finance and personal finance, I would have been humiliated by any score below the top. Fortunately that did not happen and I can go back to my job next week with no shame.
You took a risk without a potential reward? that's irrational.
Or, you can ... decline to let me, a stranger on the Internet, egg you on to an exercise in time-wasting, and you could say "I'm probably OK and I don't care about it that much." -Nisiprius

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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by Starfish » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:38 pm

ChowYunPhat wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:07 am
Interesting test Victoria and fun. I also got the "better than 75%-100% of college graduates" but like other posters the math major probably helped a bit here.

In fairness, I probably would have sided with DM below had I scored lower :)
DanMahowny wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:45 am
I scored "better than 75%-100% of college graduates".

Full disclosure- if my result sucked, I would've thought, "That test was stupid." and I wouldn't have posted my result.
How would a math major help with some basic arithmetic?
The questions are primary school level... except they required some knowledge of probabilities which for some reason is not taught in primary school.

letsgobobby
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by letsgobobby » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:42 pm

EHEngineer wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:40 pm
letsgobobby wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:30 pm
As a shrink with an interest in behavioral finance and personal finance, I would have been humiliated by any score below the top. Fortunately that did not happen and I can go back to my job next week with no shame.
You took a risk without a potential reward? that's irrational.
I confirmed my (likely inflated) bias about myself which was reward enough.

Independent George
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by Independent George » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:44 pm

I guess I scored a zero because the quiz won't load on my browser.

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Prokofiev
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by Prokofiev » Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:29 pm

Apparently, each test taker sees different questions, since I do not recognize any of the above mentioned questions. Toothpaste?

Mine concerned poison mushrooms, expensive cars, STD's, private drones and terrorism.
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gluskap
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by gluskap » Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:43 pm

I got 75-100% the highest score. Seems to be more of a statistics test.

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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by latesaver » Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:52 pm

ResearchMed wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:18 pm
Thanks. That was interesting.

The same result.

Interesting that some of those questions/answers were subjective.
(Actually, most were, as the quantitative question/answer types also had a secondary subjective component.)

How does one score "better" than others on that type of question?
Is it "better" to be "more sure".. or "less"? Does that matter if one is "correct" (at least, for the quantitative questions)?

RM
Same here. i want to retake it and see what happens if i intentionally answer the questions incorrectly. i also wish that they showed which answers achieved a "true" 100% rate.

although, i am not sure how scoring better than "75-100% of college educated people" means that i will do better than "90% of all other people".

that seems presumptuous.

MJS
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by MJS » Thu Aug 23, 2018 3:17 pm

I think the cognitive bias is, Is this a math test OR Is this an assessment test? The math bias gets a good score (hurray.) The people who didn't whip out a calculator, envelope or napkin ... didn't do so well.

GCD
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by GCD » Thu Aug 23, 2018 3:21 pm

It's really a sneaky way for the researchers to ask questions about terrorism and drone attacks and match the answers up with your political bent. I foresee a U of OK article about the illogic of liberals or conservatives in fearing terrorism. Maybe they will mix up their data collection and have to publish a correction after they mistakenly attribute illogical thinking to one group or another.https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/20 ... ssess-psy/

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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by LuigiLikesPizza » Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:40 pm

Amazing that this thread is still active

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VictoriaF
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by VictoriaF » Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:46 pm

GCD wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 3:21 pm
It's really a sneaky way for the researchers to ask questions about terrorism and drone attacks and match the answers up with your political bent. I foresee a U of OK article about the illogic of liberals or conservatives in fearing terrorism. Maybe they will mix up their data collection and have to publish a correction after they mistakenly attribute illogical thinking to one group or another.https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/20 ... ssess-psy/
It's a government ploy to distract statistics enthusiasts from their poverty, misery and general unhappiness by duping them in competitive test taking.

Victoria
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Big Dog
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by Big Dog » Thu Aug 23, 2018 5:00 pm

took last night during the ball game and scored a bottom-dwelling (and not BH worthy) bottom quartile. Took again this am after a cuppa Joe and score top quartile. Bad test design if only two questions matter, and those come first.

(My son is a very strong standardized test taker but blew the EASY first question in every standardized test that he took: SAT, ACT, LSAT...)

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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by grok87 » Thu Aug 23, 2018 5:26 pm

I got 75-100 too. Thought it was a good test.

I wish they had shown the range of responses on the risky items like drones...
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DanMahowny
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by DanMahowny » Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:41 pm

VictoriaF wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:46 pm
It's a government ploy to distract statistics enthusiasts from their poverty, misery and general unhappiness by duping them in competitive test taking.

I was duped.

Thanks for starting the thread Victoria. Good stuff.
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ThereAreNoGurus
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by ThereAreNoGurus » Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:46 pm

Big Dog wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 5:00 pm
Bad test design if only two questions matter, and those come first.
Yep. I think only the first two questions are scored, as me and another poster up-thread suspected/indicated.
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by JBTX » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:17 pm

I took the OU one and was very frustrated to get 25-50%. I went to the other site and realized the error I had made on the first test and got the top score. So I am guessing just missing that one question was the difference.

I am not sure how reliable a test is that is mostly based on one question. So which is correct, the first result or second?

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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by AlphaLess » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:30 pm

VictoriaF wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:02 pm
Here is a good test of your cognitive biases, aka irrationality:

Start reading the BBC feature at http://www.bbc.com/future/story/2018081 ... ncertainty and click on "Click here to measure your risk literacy."

I have scored "better than 75%-100% of college graduates" but that does not count because I knew the basis of all questions.

What is your score?

Victoria
Thanks for sharing.

Congratulations on completing your statistical and risk literacy test!
Your numeracy score is better than about 75-100% of all college educated individuals. Roughly, this means that out of every 100 people who take the test, you will do better than about 90% (90 people) of all other people. This is the highest score one can receive on this test.
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by AlphaLess » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:32 pm

grabiner wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:31 pm
I also got the top score. As a mathematician, I understand how probabilites work, and I know about the cognitive biases in the risk questions. (At the level of money in these questions, I am close to risk-neutral, so I can go by expected value.)
Those are extremely easy questions.

A first round phone interview for any job having to do with any stats or probability has much harder questions.
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by AlphaLess » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:46 pm

ResearchMed wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:57 pm
VictoriaF wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:48 pm
ResearchMed wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:39 pm
Okay, so after all of these Supremely Wonderful Scores, who will 'fess up to a lesser score, or an outright "low" one?

Also, do the "confidence" scores actually factor in to the "result", or is that just for the research in some other way?

RM
I think we have found the evidence of the Bogleheads superiority.

Victoria
Or is it response bias.
Not to the test, but to this thread :wink:

RM
Upvote x 100.
Response to this thread.
Response to the test.
Response to commenting afterwards.
"A Republic, if you can keep it". Benjamin Franklin. 1787. | Party affiliation: Vanguard. Religion: low-cost investing.

madbrain
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by madbrain » Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:50 pm

This high school dropout who never took a statistics class also got the highest score.

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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by TOJ » Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:15 pm

I scored the top. What's the correct answer on the guaranteed gain/loss vs chance to lose questions? And the confidence.

I chose guarantee to win and chance to lose. Was more confident on the gain than the loss.

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VictoriaF
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by VictoriaF » Fri Aug 24, 2018 8:58 am

madbrain wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:50 pm
This high school dropout who never took a statistics class also got the highest score.
True. But you must consider the base rate of high school dropout with interest in statistics.

Victoria
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Big Dog
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by Big Dog » Fri Aug 24, 2018 9:04 am

what I'm still struggling with is what do the first two math questions have to do with Cognitive Bias? (Hopefully, the academics don't really believe that....)

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iceport
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by iceport » Fri Aug 24, 2018 9:24 am

I also scored in the top quartile.

Though I must admit, I took it twice. The first time was in the middle of the night during a bout with insomnia. I took it again the following afternoon because I though I put the answer to the first question in the wrong form (decimal percent rather than a whole number, and there is no "back" button.) In taking it the second time — in the light of day — just to correct the first response, I realized I had made at least two other obvious errors, if memory served. So I'm confused how I could have scored in the second-highest quartile the first time, even with a couple of wrong answers. :?
Big Dog wrote:
Fri Aug 24, 2018 9:04 am
what I'm still struggling with is what do the first two math questions have to do with Cognitive Bias? (Hopefully, the academics don't really believe that....)
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by elderwise » Fri Aug 24, 2018 10:53 am

I wonder if its just randomly (maybe the math is wrong) that its giving the majority of us the top score.

I got the same result, Technically, relative to the general population, you are among the most statistically literate in the world.

My math is NOT great (i know from high school) so maybe i gotta re try it couple of times.I just picked what i thought (% wise ) most appropriate.I am not good at all at probability questions :oops:

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ThereAreNoGurus
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by ThereAreNoGurus » Fri Aug 24, 2018 11:40 am

elderwise wrote:
Fri Aug 24, 2018 10:53 am
I wonder if its just randomly (maybe the math is wrong) that its giving the majority of us the top score.

I got the same result, Technically, relative to the general population, you are among the most statistically literate in the world.

My math is NOT great (i know from high school) so maybe i gotta re try it couple of times.I just picked what i thought (% wise ) most appropriate.I am not good at all at probability questions :oops:
For the third time in this thread... it appears that only the first two questions are counted in your "score."
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by LadyGeek » Fri Aug 24, 2018 7:21 pm

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