Invest in Tesla?

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susze
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by susze » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:12 am

carguyny wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:08 pm
ThriftyPhD wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:48 pm
iamlucky13 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:49 pm
Inframan4712 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:20 am
The other manufacturers will have to be dragged kicking and screaming into electric vehicles, no matter how many models they promise, concept artwork they release, etc.
Mitsubishi, Nissan, Ford, and Volvo all had regular production EV's on the market before Tesla (not counting the original roadster, which they used more as a marketable prototype than a production vehicle). BMW, Chevy, Honda, and Toyota all had models on the market the same year or the year after the Model S.

InsideEV's tallies 150,000 electric vehicles sold in the US alone so far this year, and nearly 2/3 of them were made by companies other than Tesla. The forecast is over 2 million EVs globally next year, and Tesla will build less than 1/4 of those.

That other companies haven't individually been as successful in terms of unit-sales and aren't as glamorous as Tesla doesn't qualify as "kicking and screaming." It's still tough to make money in this market. Tesla identified a very good niche, but it also doesn't work to try to enter the market simply by imitating Tesla

The older companies are obviously not strictly focused on electric vehicles like Tesla, but all of them are paying close attention the market, and many of them are already involved in it, even though others don't want to fight for the low margins the current conditions seem to offer. They want to make money, so as they determine it is possible to make cost-competitive electric vehicles, they will.
Are you including plug in hybrids when you say other manufacturers had models on the market?

Looking at the chart on the bottom of this page, it's clear that if you subset down to BEV (no ICE), Tesla is dominating. Sales of the Bolt are going down while the Model 3 climbs rapidly. Tesla is outselling GM over 10 to 1.

I don't want any pistons, any oil, any gas near my next vehicle. The only true BEV competitor on the market is the Bolt, and GM does not seem interested in it at all.

Anyone can throw a tiny battery into a typical ICE vehicle and get 12 miles range before the traditional engine takes over. Which manufacturers are investing in producing BEV vehicles with 200+ mile range?

That's where they'll have to be dragged kicking and screaming. The old guard does not want to give up their ICE.

[Edit] Found an updated version of the chart above.

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

14000 Model 3 in July was over half of all Total EV sales, including hybrids. Dominating.
Jaguar i-Pace, Audi e-Tron and Porsche Taycan are all very interesting products. Jaguar i-Pace is starting to be delivered - Waymo also has a fully self driving version of it. I have a pre-order in on the Taycan and I'll get an early delivery late next year. Currently have a BMW i3 and Cayenne Hybrid PHEV - tried the Tesla Model S, but just didn't love it and thought the build quality was only OK.
Isnt the iPace delayed again? 2019 now in many areas? (yeah they are just following the Tesla schedule now:) Also where are you going to charge that car? Tesla has the supercharger network built up, even tho Musk says he hates Moats and even if its not really a moat in a business sense; to customers and public perception it is a Tesla advantage with range anxiety a concern, eventho it shouldnt be with EVs to most of the drivers out there.

Valuethinker
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:15 am

bgf wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:30 am
harikaried wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:17 pm
Whakamole wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:41 pm
Shouldn't a CEO be more focused on building a viable long-term business than going after short sellers?
Short sellers distract the business from its long-term mission with attacks that try to push the stock price down. This could be misinformation or fake news to confuse potential buyers or sabotage within the company making employees less focused. I would think it is the job of the CEO to make these distractions go away as it affects all the employees' productiveness.
this is true primarily when the entire valuation of the company is dependent on expectations and sentiment (building castles in the sky) and not on operations and cash flow. if you have a strong, profitable company with good management and execution, shareholders tend to not care so much about shortsellers...
A Board should only care if:

- the company needs to raise new equity soon so the dilution percentage is dependent upon the share price

- they fear a hostile takeover

The latter is not relevant here.

We do know Tesla has to raise more money from investors at some point. It's a long way to cash flow breakeven. Solar City did not help - estimate I saw was that it costs the Tesla shareholders $1bn additional cash p.a.

It's very concerning that a CEO of a company with so many immediate execution problems is so focused on alleged manipulations of his stock price.

Musk should let his results defeat the short sellers. Not his words. Unless ... the results are just not going to be good enough?

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DanMahowny
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by DanMahowny » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:18 am

harikaried wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:17 pm
Short sellers distract the business from its long-term mission with attacks that try to push the stock price down. This could be misinformation or fake news to confuse potential buyers or sabotage within the company making employees less focused. I would think it is the job of the CEO to make these distractions go away as it affects all the employees' productiveness.
Apple is the 2nd most shorted stock. They seem to be doing pretty well.
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niceguy7376
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by niceguy7376 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:45 am

DanMahowny wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:18 am
Apple is the 2nd most shorted stock. They seem to be doing pretty well.
Atleast for our forum sake,Apple doesnt have posters like you preaching the same thing for the last 10+ months.

Nate79
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Nate79 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:58 am

I'm not sure if this was mentioned yet or not but the SEC has opened a probe of the Musk tweets:

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2018/ ... out-tweet/

The claim that funding had been secured for taking Tesla private will be an interesting one for him to prove to the SEC. A claim by an officer of a public company better be true or else could face stock manipulation charges.

Bloomberg reports that the SEC was already investigating Tesla for Musk's claims for production goals and sales targets and this new probe just adds more pressure.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... statements

bgf
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by bgf » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:10 am

DanMahowny wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:18 am
harikaried wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:17 pm
Short sellers distract the business from its long-term mission with attacks that try to push the stock price down. This could be misinformation or fake news to confuse potential buyers or sabotage within the company making employees less focused. I would think it is the job of the CEO to make these distractions go away as it affects all the employees' productiveness.
Apple is the 2nd most shorted stock. They seem to be doing pretty well.
http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_30 ... lites.html

how is apple the 2nd most shorted stock? there is no way. maybe if you were using some nominal metric as in the total value of shorted shares (which wouldn't make sense) but even then i dont think that's correct.
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HomerJ
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by HomerJ » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:15 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:21 am
TomatoTomahto wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 5:51 am
If one is using options, and one is bearish on Tesla, isn't the right thing to do to buy Puts? Preferrably Out of The Money Puts?
Surely that’s the case if one is convinced that Tesla is going to $0 shortly.
Market Timer says he is writing in of the money calls. I am not sure why?

In principle that exposes you to infinite losses? (If you don't already hold the underlying stock?)
Well, isn't Tesla price now capped below $420? At least for a while?

Infinite losses happen if the stock rises infinitely, but in this particular case there is a (temporary?) ceiling not that far away from the current price.
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DanMahowny
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by DanMahowny » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:20 am

bgf wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:10 am
how is apple the 2nd most shorted stock? there is no way.
"Tesla Overtakes Apple As Most-Shorted US Stock"

https://www.investopedia.com/news/tesla ... s-markets/

**not posting this to argue with you man. But this is my source. Maybe it's fake news. I dunno.
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unclescrooge
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Re: TSLA privatization

Post by unclescrooge » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:27 am

triceratop wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:46 pm
Here is the most informed analysis of the recent TSLA drama: Elon Musk Has Some Fun With Tesla by Matt Levine in Bloomberg
The truth is Elon made $100B from ICOs and he just wants to buy Tesla before the bubble bursts :mrgreen:

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market timer
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by market timer » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:33 am

HomerJ wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:15 am
Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:21 am
TomatoTomahto wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 5:51 am
If one is using options, and one is bearish on Tesla, isn't the right thing to do to buy Puts? Preferrably Out of The Money Puts?
Surely that’s the case if one is convinced that Tesla is going to $0 shortly.
Market Timer says he is writing in of the money calls. I am not sure why?

In principle that exposes you to infinite losses? (If you don't already hold the underlying stock?)
Well, isn't Tesla price now capped below $420? At least for a while?

Infinite losses happen if the stock rises infinitely, but in this particular case there is a (temporary?) ceiling not that far away from the current price.
Yeah, that was my armchair trader reasoning. If Tesla goes to $420, I'm out $1500. If it goes to $350 or lower, I make $5500. Seemed like a decent gamble.

jdb
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by jdb » Fri Aug 10, 2018 3:24 pm

So the answer to the OP question posted on March 28 is clear- anyone buying at the then prevailing stock price could have made a profit of about 100 points by selling this week. Not too many of us were saying yes. And I am still saying yes, would hope that my stock position, which has more than doubled in value again, could continue in a private company. But am amazed at all the naysayers and haters. So much money left on the table if the naysayers and haters had only been long investors past six years. Good luck. And by the way, our physician son and his wife absolutely love their new Model 3.
Last edited by jdb on Fri Aug 10, 2018 3:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

3funder
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by 3funder » Fri Aug 10, 2018 3:25 pm

Nope.

Nate79
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Nate79 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 4:23 pm

jdb wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 3:24 pm
So the answer to the OP question posted on March 28 is clear- anyone buying at the then prevailing stock price could have made a profit of about 100 points by selling this week. Not too many of us were saying yes. And I am still saying yes, would hope that my stock position, which has more than doubled in value again, could continue in a private company. But am amazed at all the naysayers and haters. So much money left on the table if the naysayers and haters had only been long investors past six years. Good luck. And by the way, our physician son and his wife absolutely love their new Model 3.
Investing in individual stocks is not recommended on this site, whether it is Tesla or not. Not sure why you would expect to have a positive response in a stock picking thread on Bogleheads.

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4nursebee
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by 4nursebee » Sat Aug 11, 2018 4:26 am

Self driving car white paper follows. I think I saw a principal in the company suggest $4000 price target next 5 years

http://research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_ ... 0a674f20f7


It will be interesting to continue following what the big boys are doing: https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/inst ... l-holdings
Thus far, 4 of the top ten have reported, 3 bought more, one sold. I hope FIDO adds.
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carguyny
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by carguyny » Sat Aug 11, 2018 5:32 am

4nursebee wrote:
Sat Aug 11, 2018 4:26 am
Self driving car white paper follows. I think I saw a principal in the company suggest $4000 price target next 5 years

http://research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_ ... 0a674f20f7


It will be interesting to continue following what the big boys are doing: https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/inst ... l-holdings
Thus far, 4 of the top ten have reported, 3 bought more, one sold. I hope FIDO adds.
This is the leader by far in self driving cars https://waymo.com/ . Waymo is the only technology operating commercially with no one behind the wheel operating in the US.

Nate79
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Nate79 » Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:23 pm

At the risk of bumping this thread this article popped up in CNNMoney. It seems the idea of taking Tesla private is maybe more serious and Musk is expecting this can be done with Saudi's money:

https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/13/news/c ... index.html
Buying all Tesla's shares at the $420 price would cost almost $72 billion. But Musk has said he expects to hold on to his 20% stake in the company. He has also said he expects many other investors would retain their shares in a privately held Tesla.

On Monday, he estimated that about two-thirds of the shares held by current investors would remain in those hands, which would reduce the cost of taking the company private to just under $24 billion.

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matjen
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by matjen » Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:40 pm

Matt Levine is out with an entire blog on this which is rather rare for him. This one will leave a mark.

Elon Musk’s Funding for Tesla Wasn’t So Secure
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles ... -so-secure
Today he posted an “Update on Taking Tesla Private” – on Tesla’s blog, not on Twitter – that sort of answered the question: He didn’t have the funding!
and...
But if you do decide to just tweet your every random thought without consulting anyone, then any errors are kind of on you. It is not really an excuse to say that you didn’t mean to mislead anyone, that you thought that what you were saying was right, that it made sense to you. Because every other public-company CEO cares about this stuff, and tries to avoid saying untrue material things in casual public communications. If you don’t care, if you are just reckless about your public announcements of material information, then you should expect that to eventually go wrong. 1

Here is the other thing about Musk’s plan to go private while keeping all the same shareholders. It makes no sense. Usually when a CEO wants to take his company private, it’s because he wants to change something. One thing that usually changes is leverage; a going-private transaction normally involves borrowing a lot of money to juice the equity returns of the company, something that is obviously not a consideration here. (“I do not think it would be wise to burden Tesla with significantly increased debt,” blogged Musk, correctly.)
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Whakamole
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Whakamole » Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:18 pm

matjen wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:40 pm
Matt Levine is out with an entire blog on this which is rather rare for him. This one will leave a mark.
This has to be stock price manipulation, right?

I'm also not sure how a company with millions of shareholders would be private. That sounds public to me. Otherwise other companies would just claim to be "private" while still having access to the equity markets but not having to deal with SEC filings, Sarbanes-Oxley compliance, etc.

susze
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by susze » Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:23 pm

Nate79 wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:23 pm
At the risk of bumping this thread this article popped up in CNNMoney. It seems the idea of taking Tesla private is maybe more serious and Musk is expecting this can be done with Saudi's money:

https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/13/news/c ... index.html
Buying all Tesla's shares at the $420 price would cost almost $72 billion. But Musk has said he expects to hold on to his 20% stake in the company. He has also said he expects many other investors would retain their shares in a privately held Tesla.

On Monday, he estimated that about two-thirds of the shares held by current investors would remain in those hands, which would reduce the cost of taking the company private to just under $24 billion.
How would he do it with Saudi money? CIFIUS would definitely reject this especially if there is cross research with SpaceX. Same would probably go for Tencent and maybe Softbank(but they could be tapped out after ARM buyout)

inbox788
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by inbox788 » Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:28 pm

susze wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:23 pm
How would he do it with Saudi money? CIFIUS would definitely reject this especially if there is cross research with SpaceX. Same would probably go for Tencent and maybe Softbank(but they could be tapped out after ARM buyout)
Tesla is currently a $60B company at $356/share. Which holders would need to be bought out? Do index managers care at all? And which of the active managers would object to a 20% premium? The biggest concentrated holding I'm seeing is Baillie Gifford and Company (7.64%) and Jennison Associates LLC (2.00%) and they may be investing for others as well. Some or most of the "25.31% % of Shares Held by All Insider" may be in the hands of Musk himself. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/i ... s-tsla.asp

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/holders?p=TSLA

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baillie_Gifford
https://www.jennison.com/about/

There are reports the Saudi sovereign wealth fund already owns nearly 5%, so if getting to 50% is all that is needed to take the company private, they shouldn't have too much trouble. Coming up with the cash to buy out 1/3 or half of the $72B ($60B + 20% premium) means around $24B, which is only about 1% of the $2T fund. Financing doesn't appear to be a major hurdle.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_In ... udi_Arabia

susze
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by susze » Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:42 pm

inbox788 wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:28 pm
susze wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:23 pm
How would he do it with Saudi money? CIFIUS would definitely reject this especially if there is cross research with SpaceX. Same would probably go for Tencent and maybe Softbank(but they could be tapped out after ARM buyout)
Tesla is currently a $60B company at $356/share. Which holders would need to be bought out? Do index managers care at all? And which of the active managers would object to a 20% premium? The biggest concentrated holding I'm seeing is Baillie Gifford and Company (7.64%) and Jennison Associates LLC (2.00%) and they may be investing for others as well. Some or most of the "25.31% % of Shares Held by All Insider" may be in the hands of Musk himself. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/i ... s-tsla.asp

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/holders?p=TSLA

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baillie_Gifford
https://www.jennison.com/about/

There are reports the Saudi sovereign wealth fund already owns nearly 5%, so if getting to 50% is all that is needed to take the company private, they shouldn't have too much trouble. Coming up with the cash to buy out 1/3 or half of the $72B ($60B + 20% premium) means around $24B, which is only about 1% of the $2T fund. Financing doesn't appear to be a major hurdle.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_In ... udi_Arabia
Oh yes I agree was only saying that Foriegn investment would be a more difficult option because of CIFIUS. He could gather other sources that you have mentioned. And up to 10% from each foreign source. But depending on Saudis may not be an option because of CIFIUS. But in the end who really knows

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Committ ... ted_States

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matjen
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by matjen » Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:28 am

inbox788 wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:28 pm

There are reports the Saudi sovereign wealth fund already owns nearly 5%, so if getting to 50% is all that is needed to take the company private, they shouldn't have too much trouble. Coming up with the cash to buy out 1/3 or half of the $72B ($60B + 20% premium) means around $24B, which is only about 1% of the $2T fund. Financing doesn't appear to be a major hurdle.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_In ... udi_Arabia
That $2 trillion figure is not accurate at all. The WSJ has it at 200 billion. Even articles that list 2T say way in the future and describe how misleading the figure is.

Larger Tesla Stake by Giant Saudi Fund Faces Hurdles
PIF is already on the hook to contribute to initiatives including Neom, the $500 billion futuristic megacity
https://www.wsj.com/articles/larger-tes ... cle_inline
As of last year, PIF officials and outside consultants were struggling to calculate the fund’s value, The Wall Street Journal has reported. Estimates ranged from $200 billion to $300 billion, including assets like a 70% stake in Saudi Basic Industries Co., or Sabic, one of the world’s largest petrochemical companies.
How Saudi Arabia Is Building Its $2 Trillion Fund
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... cktake-q-a
The fund aims to increase its assets to $400 billion by 2020 from $230 billion currently.
and
5. Where does the $2 trillion figure come from?
The bulk of that is based on Aramco’s value. While the Aramco holding would vault the PIF ahead of Norway’s $850 billion sovereign wealth fund, currently the world’s largest, most of the PIF’s assets will be illiquid until the Saudis sell Aramco shares. For this reason, some analysts say the $2 trillion figure is misleading. Aramco could have a market value between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion now that the government has slashed the oil producer’s tax burden to attract investors, analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. and Rystad Energy AS said in March. But other industry experts say Aramco is worth no more than half, and maybe as little as a fifth, of $2 trillion, based on oil reserves and cash-flow projections under different tax scenarios.
Ooops!

Saudi Aramco’s $2 Trillion Zombie IPO
Likely investors doubt the value of the proposed public offering. How will Mohammed bin Salman save face?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... zombie-ipo
The initial public offering—planned for 2018—would be the deal to end all deals, raising more than $100 billion for a new sovereign wealth fund, creating the world’s most valuable listed company, and funneling hundreds of millions of dollars in fees to Wall Street’s elite banks. MBS, as the 32-year-old crown prince is known, said the company would be worth at least $2 trillion—more than double the current market valuation of Apple Inc.—and perhaps as much as $2.5 trillion.

Two years later, things look very different. A combination of hubris on the valuation, an overambitious timetable, and indifference—if not derision—from global investors doubtful that an IPO would benefit them, has forced Riyadh to delay the sale until at least 2019. And many observers—including members of the company’s senior leadership—doubt whether it will happen at all. Aramco has become the zombie IPO.
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linenfort
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by linenfort » Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:21 am

China’s version, Nio, will have an IPO soon.
https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/14/invest ... index.html
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:34 am

Perhaps it's time for Elon to step down as CEO and put someone in charge who knows how to properly run a public company. I get that he's a "big ideas" guy who wants to change the world. That's fine. As CTO, he can do that, setting the direction of what Tesla is going to do. He needs someone to grab his phone and smash it against a wall, hand him an old analog flip phone to make phone calls and nuke his twitter account from a space-X rocket. Have a senior lawyer review every single thing he plans to publicly say and censor the stupid, random thoughts. Perhaps when the Saudis take over, they'll force this.....after they build a car and battery factory in the Kingdom.
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inbox788
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by inbox788 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:13 am

matjen wrote:
Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:28 am
5. Where does the $2 trillion figure come from?
The bulk of that is based on Aramco’s value. While the Aramco holding would vault the PIF ahead of Norway’s $850 billion sovereign wealth fund, currently the world’s largest, most of the PIF’s assets will be illiquid until the Saudis sell Aramco shares. For this reason, some analysts say the $2 trillion figure is misleading. Aramco could have a market value between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion now that the government has slashed the oil producer’s tax burden to attract investors, analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. and Rystad Energy AS said in March. But other industry experts say Aramco is worth no more than half, and maybe as little as a fifth, of $2 trillion, based on oil reserves and cash-flow projections under different tax scenarios.
Good point, but they should be able to raise the needed amount at this time. If/when every gas/diesel vehicle is replaced with electric, their core business is going to take a big hit. It's prudent for them to cover all the bases and take out an insurance policy. If Tesla continues to grow and begins to cause oil to lag, they would have to make a bigger decision down the road.

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/ind ... sportation

There are still many other uses of petroleum products that don't have immediate threats, like jet fuel, heating oil, and feedstocks, so the industry should be around and a significant portion of the economy for the foreseeable future, whatever the valuation.
In 2017, of the approximately 7.3 billion barrels of total U.S. petroleum consumption, 47% was motor gasoline (includes ethanol), 20% was distillate fuel (heating oil and diesel fuel), and 8% was jet fuel.
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=41&t=6

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Beegaphone » Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:40 am

Duped? Anyone who owns a Tesla or owns some TSLA is likely to be a happy customer. The only people who have suffered at the hands of Musk have been shorters, and as Bogleheads we don't shed too many tears for them.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by triceratop » Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:34 am

matjen wrote:
Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:25 am
DanMahowny wrote:
Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:14 am
Musk is well known by the masses. Musk's followers, the "Elonions", regularly preach to anyone in their vicinity. Indeed, Musk is going to "change the world", but not the way people think.
Listen, it has been well known for years that Musk & Tesla are taking it to big oil to save the world. It's just that "taking it" now means a small chance that they will be selling a major stake to OPEC countries at greatly reduced prices. :oops:
This is a popular take (see the Bloomberg piece out this morning making this case). I don't see it -- shouldn't the Saudis want to diversify? Isn't that the entire idea behind the new sovereign wealth fund? What better way than a strategic investment in a possible global leader in battery tech and non-ICF (edit: non-ICE) automobiles? Am I missing something, where I don't see the hypocrisy here, because if that is the case then it doesn't seem like Elon should have much of a problem with them as an investor.
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matjen
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by matjen » Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:57 am

Sure. I agree in the general sense but Musk has cast big auto, big oil, etc. as basically evil and said they want to kill Tesla. That has been his pitch to teslemmings. A perfect example was alleging they may be behind the recent whistleblower...uh I mean saboteur. (Just two months ago) 🤣 I mean they could be investing to protect oil and sabotage or kill Tesla and Solar City...right? Lol.
As you know, there are a long list of organizations that want Tesla to die. These include Wall Street short-sellers, who have already lost billions of dollars and stand to lose a lot more. Then there are the oil & gas companies, the wealthiest industry in the world — they don't love the idea of Tesla advancing the progress of solar power & electric cars. Don't want to blow your mind, but rumor has it that those companies are sometimes not super nice.
Last edited by matjen on Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:08 pm, edited 2 times in total.
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.

Whakamole
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Whakamole » Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:19 pm

The 8-K is quite brief:
Tesla Announces Formation of Special Committee to Evaluate Potential Going Private Transaction

Palo Alto, CA, August 14, 2018 -- Tesla, Inc. (the “Company”) announced today that its Board of Directors has formed a special committee comprised of three independent directors to act on behalf of the Company in connection with Elon Musk’s previously announced consideration of a transaction to take the Company private (the “Going Private Transaction”). The special committee has not yet received a formal proposal from Mr. Musk regarding any Going Private Transaction nor has it reached any conclusion as to the advisability or feasibility of such a transaction.

The special committee is composed of Brad Buss, Robyn Denholm and Linda Johnson Rice. The special committee has retained Latham & Watkins LLP as its legal counsel and intends to retain an independent financial advisor to assist in its review of a formal proposal once received. The Company has separately retained Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati as its legal counsel in this matter.

The special committee has the full power and authority of the Board of Directors to take any and all actions on behalf of the Board of Directors as it deems necessary to evaluate and negotiate a potential Going Private Transaction and alternatives to any transaction proposed by Mr. Musk. The special committee’s grant of authority provides that no Going Private Transaction will be consummated without the approval of the special committee. The special committee expects to provide a further update concerning the process associated with Mr. Musk’s proposal as soon as practicable.

No assurances can be given regarding the likelihood, terms and details of any proposal or potential Going Private Transaction, that any proposal made by Mr. Musk regarding a potential Going Private Transaction will be accepted by the special committee, that definitive documentation relating to any such Going Private Transaction will be executed or that such a transaction will be completed.
They have a committee to look into a proposal which they don't have. I hope they have nice snacks.

iamlucky13
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by iamlucky13 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:29 pm

From yesterday's post on the Tesla Blog:
https://www.tesla.com/blog/update-taking-tesla-private
Why did I make a public announcement?
The only way I could have meaningful discussions with our largest shareholders was to be completely forthcoming with them about my desire to take the company private.
So he decided a pair of short, barely even descriptive much less meaningful messages on a platform not traditionally used for release of material information on publicly traded companies, was the way to disclose a fundamental ownership change in the company?

From all the years I've been following his ventures, I've gotten used to him taking a casual approach to convention, having some remarkable successes as a result, but also some worrisome failures.

He really outdid himself on this one, though. It was one thing back when SpaceX was a 3 year old company with no customers, funded entirely by one person, that didn't bother to have a software configuration control process and crashed a $6 million rocket as a result.

It's another when you run a publicly traded company and make material statements with implied value impacts in the $10+ billion range affecting thousands of people as if it were equally as important to your social media followers as the post you just made about purple squirrels.

I will be curious to know the answer if the board is ever asked explicitly by the SEC whether they were aware of Musk's intention to make these statements.

roflwaffle
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by roflwaffle » Tue Aug 14, 2018 6:40 pm

Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 4:50 am
roflwaffle wrote:
Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:23 am

I agree that car companies are greedy, but that doesn't mean EVs aren't viable. Most car companies have to decades of time and billions of dollars invested in ICEs, and being greedy, they would rather drag their feet on EVs and minimize the risks to those investments than aggressively push a product that could undermine their other products. They also have to appease their customers, dealers, who make most of their money off of maintenance.
The question is surely not if EVs are viable?

They most assuredly are. Tesla among others has proven that. And the need for an EV solution has not gone away - in fact it is getting more urgent. The speed of mass adoption, when it comes, will blind us. I freely admit that is likely to be after 2030 not immediately after 2018.

The US is actually a bad place to develop an EV ecosystem. Distances are very large and petrol (gasoline) prices are low by developed country standards. The average distance travelled per day by commuters and for shopping etc. must be quite high. The environment is extreme, so heating and AC use are de rigeur? That cuts range.

Most other developed countries are much closer to the ideal circumstances. Shorter distances, less use of climate control. Higher gasoline prices. China is becoming an EV leader - they have the air pollution problems to necessitate action.

The issue is more whether Tesla is the one to lead that revolution.

That's a much harder call. I look at the finances of the company, the quality control issues, the record of missed targets, the enthusiasm for tangential deals (Solar City) and prototypes as product announcement (heavy trucks), and think ... overvalued and could be bust.

Enthusiasts look at the demand for the cars and the way it has set a whole new tone for the industry and think the opposite. The BMW i3, say, is just not much of a car compared to a Tesla. Neither is the plug in Prius.

As for this being the moves of a single state, there are 13 section 177 states following CA's emissions regulations that represent about a third of the US population. I support these regulations because they reduce pollution and increase energy independence. :beer
The weird thing is the US is becoming the world's largest oil producer. Again. Thus the energy independence argument is not as strong as it was. It is not, however, dead-- because of course the US could save that consumption and export it instead.
I agree. I think the question is more whether existing automakers excluding Tesla will put the legwork into EVs that they put into their ICEs. Without that, it'll take a while before EVs become competitive IMO, although Tesla pushing things has I think really helped with that.

While Tesla is pretty bad about hitting their own timelines, in general I think they're doing well. As of July I think they sold significantly more EVs in the US than everyone else combined for both EVs and PHEVs. Individual companies are doing as well or almost as well as they are in specific parts of EV design/manufacturing, but in the aggregate I think they have at least a two to three year head start on everyone else.

I'm not that worried about QC because the next year and change is really make it or break it if they want to grow production enough to justify their valuation. Part of that is selling a car to anyone who will buy it and letting the service centers clean up whatever QC issues are still present. IMO, QC becomes a better predictor of their long term success after they aren't production constrained.

Surprisingly enough, SolarCity finally looks to be working out for Tesla Energy. I don't think the sales side of SolarCity was very useful for Tesla, or for SolarCity at this point, so the layoffs over the past year or so seemed to help. IIRC, Tesla Energy's margins and revenue have substantially increase since Tesla purchased SolarCity.

In terms of oil production, the US is doing fairly well, but I think we would still need to double current production before we could get to break even and actually have energy security. Course, the GHG side is IMO a greater concern, especially in the long run.

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linenfort
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by linenfort » Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:37 am

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:34 am
Perhaps it's time for Elon to step down as CEO and put someone in charge who knows how to properly run a public company. I get that he's a "big ideas" guy who wants to change the world. That's fine. As CTO, he can do that, setting the direction of what Tesla is going to do. He needs someone to grab his phone and smash it against a wall, hand him an old analog flip phone to make phone calls and nuke his twitter account from a space-X rocket. Have a senior lawyer review every single thing he plans to publicly say and censor the stupid, random thoughts. Perhaps when the Saudis take over, they'll force this.....after they build a car and battery factory in the Kingdom.
ha! Well said, and made me smile.
bogleheads, don't knock state lotteries. They helped defund the mafia.

Inframan4712
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Inframan4712 » Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:56 am

linenfort wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:37 am
Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:34 am
Perhaps it's time for Elon to step down as CEO and put someone in charge who knows how to properly run a public company. I get that he's a "big ideas" guy who wants to change the world. That's fine. As CTO, he can do that, setting the direction of what Tesla is going to do. He needs someone to grab his phone and smash it against a wall, hand him an old analog flip phone to make phone calls and nuke his twitter account from a space-X rocket. Have a senior lawyer review every single thing he plans to publicly say and censor the stupid, random thoughts. Perhaps when the Saudis take over, they'll force this.....after they build a car and battery factory in the Kingdom.


ha! Well said, and made me smile.
Do you have any examples in mind of companies where control was taken away from a visionary founder and given to a “grownup” CEO and that worked out? Because all I can think of is how Apple tanked after Jobs was thrown out.

I’ll take Musk and the very few like him every time.

Nate79
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Nate79 » Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:02 pm

Inframan4712 wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:56 am
linenfort wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:37 am
Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:34 am
Perhaps it's time for Elon to step down as CEO and put someone in charge who knows how to properly run a public company. I get that he's a "big ideas" guy who wants to change the world. That's fine. As CTO, he can do that, setting the direction of what Tesla is going to do. He needs someone to grab his phone and smash it against a wall, hand him an old analog flip phone to make phone calls and nuke his twitter account from a space-X rocket. Have a senior lawyer review every single thing he plans to publicly say and censor the stupid, random thoughts. Perhaps when the Saudis take over, they'll force this.....after they build a car and battery factory in the Kingdom.


ha! Well said, and made me smile.
Do you have any examples in mind of companies where control was taken away from a visionary founder and given to a “grownup” CEO and that worked out? Because all I can think of is how Apple tanked after Jobs was thrown out.

I’ll take Musk and the very few like him every time.
It happens all the time with tech startups when the company wants to get serious vs the startup mentality. Here are just a couple of articles pulled off the web describing just this topic:

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-oft ... ced-2011-8

https://startuplawyer.com/venture-capit ... ounder-ceo

https://www.inc.com/articles/201109/why ... fired.html

(Note, I didn't read all the articles, just pulled from the web)

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matjen
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by matjen » Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:31 pm

"Funding Secured" is Urban Dictionary's Word of the Day. This may be Musk's greatest accomplishment!

https://www.urbandictionary.com/
Funding secured.
When you have no idea where you're gonna get the money.

Elon Musk, 8/7/2018: "Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured." SEC opens investigation next day.

Me to my new girl: "Taking you to Hawaii this winter. Funding secured." Let's hope for a windfall...
#money #funds #budge t#broke #bankrupt
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.

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matjen
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by matjen » Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:35 pm

financeperchance wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:30 pm

Take a look at Amazon's income statement here, pretending like you don't know what company it's for:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data ... /e10-q.txt

That's for Q2 2000. (HINT: Q3 wasn't profitable either.)

Since you know how the movie ended for Amazon over the several years after that though, ask yourself again, why would anyone invest in a company like that, which at the time wasn't making money?
Here is your answer. Moreover, that is only a few years into Amazon's life not the 15 years that Tesla is into its business "plan."

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=245503&p=4027049&h ... n#p4027049
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.

financeperchance
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by financeperchance » Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:56 pm

matjen wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:35 pm
financeperchance wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:30 pm

Take a look at Amazon's income statement here, pretending like you don't know what company it's for:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data ... /e10-q.txt

That's for Q2 2000. (HINT: Q3 wasn't profitable either.)

Since you know how the movie ended for Amazon over the several years after that though, ask yourself again, why would anyone invest in a company like that, which at the time wasn't making money?
Here is your answer. Moreover, that is only a few years into Amazon's life not the 15 years that Tesla is into its business "plan."

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=245503&p=4027049&h ... n#p4027049
No, that doesn't answer my question, which was about Amazon's financials in Q2 2000. I get that you're trying to pump your stock position (I have no significant position either long or short), but it's still important for you to understand for yourself why you're right about Tesla and the crowd is wrong.

Did you even look at the 10-Q? You really should.

P.S. Also, here's Amazon's amended 10-K from 1999 posted just after that quarter:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data ... e10-ka.txt

Look at that and tell me you wouldn't have run from that in horror. You have to be able to understand the way things played out and how the financials played out over time.

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matjen
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by matjen » Wed Aug 15, 2018 1:05 pm

I have no position either other than theoretical (which is always easier).

Correction, I guess it makes up a percent or two of funds like VTI. So I am long!

After quick look I will go with cash flow being the difference but I am a lawyer not a finance guy. There is a reason I am a Boglehead.
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.

financeperchance
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by financeperchance » Wed Aug 15, 2018 1:12 pm

matjen wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 1:05 pm
I have no position either other than theoretical (which is always easier).

Correction, I guess it makes up a percent or two of funds like VTI. So I am long!

After quick look I will go with cash flow being the difference but I am a lawyer not a finance guy. There is a reason I am a Boglehead.
Ah my bad. Sorry for my quick and erroneous assumption.

Good news, I just checked and it's actually only 0.15% of VTI's assets.

Inframan4712
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Inframan4712 » Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:33 pm

Nate79 wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:02 pm
Inframan4712 wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:56 am
linenfort wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:37 am
Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:34 am
Perhaps it's time for Elon to step down as CEO and put someone in charge who knows how to properly run a public company. I get that he's a "big ideas" guy who wants to change the world. That's fine. As CTO, he can do that, setting the direction of what Tesla is going to do. He needs someone to grab his phone and smash it against a wall, hand him an old analog flip phone to make phone calls and nuke his twitter account from a space-X rocket. Have a senior lawyer review every single thing he plans to publicly say and censor the stupid, random thoughts. Perhaps when the Saudis take over, they'll force this.....after they build a car and battery factory in the Kingdom.


ha! Well said, and made me smile.
Do you have any examples in mind of companies where control was taken away from a visionary founder and given to a “grownup” CEO and that worked out? Because all I can think of is how Apple tanked after Jobs was thrown out.

I’ll take Musk and the very few like him every time.
It happens all the time with tech startups when the company wants to get serious vs the startup mentality. Here are just a couple of articles pulled off the web describing just this topic:

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-oft ... ced-2011-8

https://startuplawyer.com/venture-capit ... ounder-ceo

https://www.inc.com/articles/201109/why ... fired.html

(Note, I didn't read all the articles, just pulled from the web)
Well, you ought to read them. The first two are opinion pieces. The last one argues for and against. So no real evidence there.

I’ll ask again. To anyone. Name some groundbreaking companies that changed the world. That ejected their high profile founders and are still changing the world.

financeperchance
Posts: 82
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by financeperchance » Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:08 pm

Inframan4712 wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:33 pm
Nate79 wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:02 pm
Inframan4712 wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:56 am
linenfort wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:37 am
Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:34 am
Perhaps it's time for Elon to step down as CEO and put someone in charge who knows how to properly run a public company. I get that he's a "big ideas" guy who wants to change the world. That's fine. As CTO, he can do that, setting the direction of what Tesla is going to do. He needs someone to grab his phone and smash it against a wall, hand him an old analog flip phone to make phone calls and nuke his twitter account from a space-X rocket. Have a senior lawyer review every single thing he plans to publicly say and censor the stupid, random thoughts. Perhaps when the Saudis take over, they'll force this.....after they build a car and battery factory in the Kingdom.


ha! Well said, and made me smile.
Do you have any examples in mind of companies where control was taken away from a visionary founder and given to a “grownup” CEO and that worked out? Because all I can think of is how Apple tanked after Jobs was thrown out.

I’ll take Musk and the very few like him every time.
It happens all the time with tech startups when the company wants to get serious vs the startup mentality. Here are just a couple of articles pulled off the web describing just this topic:

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-oft ... ced-2011-8

https://startuplawyer.com/venture-capit ... ounder-ceo

https://www.inc.com/articles/201109/why ... fired.html

(Note, I didn't read all the articles, just pulled from the web)
Well, you ought to read them. The first two are opinion pieces. The last one argues for and against. So no real evidence there.

I’ll ask again. To anyone. Name some groundbreaking companies that changed the world. That ejected their high profile founders and are still changing the world.
I'll submit a couple guesses:

1) Google. Eric Schmidt took over running the day-to-day operations in 2001.

2) Ironically enough, SpaceX. Gwen Shotwell is the actual de-facto CEO these days, not Elon Musk.

financeperchance
Posts: 82
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by financeperchance » Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:12 pm

matjen wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 1:05 pm
I have no position either other than theoretical (which is always easier).

Correction, I guess it makes up a percent or two of funds like VTI. So I am long!

After quick look I will go with cash flow being the difference but I am a lawyer not a finance guy. There is a reason I am a Boglehead.
Now that I know you're a lawyer (good) and not a finance guy, I can read your posts with fresh eyes because you know what you're talking about.

Are you familiar with Ivar Kreuger? He was a possible historical analogue to Elon Musk, depending on how this latest SEC investigation goes. Kreuger was a bit of a fraud, though it turned out he did build a legit business.

If you haven't read this book I think you'd find it interesting:
https://www.amazon.com/Match-King-Kreug ... 1586488120

Nate79
Posts: 3490
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2016 6:24 pm
Location: Portland, OR

Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Nate79 » Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:22 pm

Inframan4712 wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:33 pm
Nate79 wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:02 pm
Inframan4712 wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:56 am
linenfort wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:37 am
Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:34 am
Perhaps it's time for Elon to step down as CEO and put someone in charge who knows how to properly run a public company. I get that he's a "big ideas" guy who wants to change the world. That's fine. As CTO, he can do that, setting the direction of what Tesla is going to do. He needs someone to grab his phone and smash it against a wall, hand him an old analog flip phone to make phone calls and nuke his twitter account from a space-X rocket. Have a senior lawyer review every single thing he plans to publicly say and censor the stupid, random thoughts. Perhaps when the Saudis take over, they'll force this.....after they build a car and battery factory in the Kingdom.


ha! Well said, and made me smile.
Do you have any examples in mind of companies where control was taken away from a visionary founder and given to a “grownup” CEO and that worked out? Because all I can think of is how Apple tanked after Jobs was thrown out.

I’ll take Musk and the very few like him every time.
It happens all the time with tech startups when the company wants to get serious vs the startup mentality. Here are just a couple of articles pulled off the web describing just this topic:

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-oft ... ced-2011-8

https://startuplawyer.com/venture-capit ... ounder-ceo

https://www.inc.com/articles/201109/why ... fired.html

(Note, I didn't read all the articles, just pulled from the web)
Well, you ought to read them. The first two are opinion pieces. The last one argues for and against. So no real evidence there.

I’ll ask again. To anyone. Name some groundbreaking companies that changed the world. That ejected their high profile founders and are still changing the world.
Ok, I will do the 5 seconds of research you could have done on your own. It's not that hard. I'm not going to argue that any companies on this list are groundbreaking companies (nor care about the specific details of each company or why the founders were fired) just as I'm not going to concede that Tesla falls into this category neither. These examples were easily found online.

So here are your examples: Groupon, Chesapeake energy, Blackberry, Etsy, Yahoo, Jet Blue, Apple, Tesla (wait what!?!), Twitter, Men's Wearhouse, Uber, American Apparel, Jackson Hewitt Inc, Liberty Tax

Inframan4712
Posts: 90
Joined: Sat Jan 03, 2015 1:10 pm

Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Inframan4712 » Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:17 pm

Nate79 wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:22 pm
Inframan4712 wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:33 pm
Nate79 wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:02 pm
Inframan4712 wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:56 am
linenfort wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:37 am




ha! Well said, and made me smile.
Do you have any examples in mind of companies where control was taken away from a visionary founder and given to a “grownup” CEO and that worked out? Because all I can think of is how Apple tanked after Jobs was thrown out.

I’ll take Musk and the very few like him every time.
It happens all the time with tech startups when the company wants to get serious vs the startup mentality. Here are just a couple of articles pulled off the web describing just this topic:

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-oft ... ced-2011-8

https://startuplawyer.com/venture-capit ... ounder-ceo

https://www.inc.com/articles/201109/why ... fired.html

(Note, I didn't read all the articles, just pulled from the web)
Well, you ought to read them. The first two are opinion pieces. The last one argues for and against. So no real evidence there.

I’ll ask again. To anyone. Name some groundbreaking companies that changed the world. That ejected their high profile founders and are still changing the world.
Ok, I will do the 5 seconds of research you could have done on your own. It's not that hard. I'm not going to argue that any companies on this list are groundbreaking companies (nor care about the specific details of each company or why the founders were fired) just as I'm not going to concede that Tesla falls into this category neither. These examples were easily found online.

So here are your examples: Groupon, Chesapeake energy, Blackberry, Etsy, Yahoo, Jet Blue, Apple, Tesla (wait what!?!), Twitter, Men's Wearhouse, Uber, American Apparel, Jackson Hewitt Inc, Liberty Tax
So much winning, LOL. Men’s Wearhouse, BlackBerry , ha ha! We will just have to agree to disagree.

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TimeRunner
Posts: 1388
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by TimeRunner » Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:32 pm

Don't forget Papa John's for your slice of founder drama.... :mrgreen:
"...There're just so many summers, and just so many springs." -Don Henley "What'd ya expect in an opera, a happy ending?" -Bugs Bunny

financeperchance
Posts: 82
Joined: Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:15 am

Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by financeperchance » Wed Aug 15, 2018 8:13 pm

Inframan4712 wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:17 pm
Nate79 wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:22 pm
Inframan4712 wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:33 pm
Nate79 wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:02 pm
Inframan4712 wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:56 am


Do you have any examples in mind of companies where control was taken away from a visionary founder and given to a “grownup” CEO and that worked out? Because all I can think of is how Apple tanked after Jobs was thrown out.

I’ll take Musk and the very few like him every time.
It happens all the time with tech startups when the company wants to get serious vs the startup mentality. Here are just a couple of articles pulled off the web describing just this topic:

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-oft ... ced-2011-8

https://startuplawyer.com/venture-capit ... ounder-ceo

https://www.inc.com/articles/201109/why ... fired.html

(Note, I didn't read all the articles, just pulled from the web)
Well, you ought to read them. The first two are opinion pieces. The last one argues for and against. So no real evidence there.

I’ll ask again. To anyone. Name some groundbreaking companies that changed the world. That ejected their high profile founders and are still changing the world.
Ok, I will do the 5 seconds of research you could have done on your own. It's not that hard. I'm not going to argue that any companies on this list are groundbreaking companies (nor care about the specific details of each company or why the founders were fired) just as I'm not going to concede that Tesla falls into this category neither. These examples were easily found online.

So here are your examples: Groupon, Chesapeake energy, Blackberry, Etsy, Yahoo, Jet Blue, Apple, Tesla (wait what!?!), Twitter, Men's Wearhouse, Uber, American Apparel, Jackson Hewitt Inc, Liberty Tax
So much winning, LOL. Men’s Wearhouse, BlackBerry , ha ha! We will just have to agree to disagree.
What about my guesses?

Tanelorn
Posts: 1542
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 9:35 pm

Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Tanelorn » Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:34 pm

This WSJ article has lots of details, beyond just the headline that the SEC has a formal investigation of Tesla and are subpoenaing various senior executives.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-sends- ... yptr=yahoo

The big institutional holders are selling stock recently and how the rules on going private will require serious difficult changes that are probably impractical in this case. As for funding a possible buyout, remember CFIUS is probably not going to allow a bunch of Saudi or Russian money to buy a big stake.

Nate79
Posts: 3490
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2016 6:24 pm
Location: Portland, OR

Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Nate79 » Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:34 pm

Tanelorn wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:34 pm
This WSJ article has lots of details, beyond just the headline that the SEC has a formal investigation of Tesla and are subpoenaing various senior executives.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-sends- ... yptr=yahoo

The big institutional holders are selling stock recently and how the rules on going private will require serious difficult changes that are probably impractical in this case. As for funding a possible buyout, remember CFIUS is probably not going to allow a bunch of Saudi or Russian money to buy a big stake.
But the funding was secured because I read it on twitter?!? :shock:

drk
Posts: 746
Joined: Mon Jul 24, 2017 10:33 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by drk » Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:14 pm

For those who don't get his newsletter, Matt Levine's special edition of Money Stuff on this nonsense is incredible:
But Musk’s second reason – “the quarterly earnings cycle that puts enormous pressure on Tesla to make decisions that may be right for a given quarter, but not necessarily right for the long-term” – is the silliest. Where does that pressure come from? Are there gamma rays of short-termism wafting through the public markets? If being public creates pressure to make short-term decisions, then surely that pressure has to come from public-market shareholders. There is something about those public shareholders – who tend to be relatively diversified, relatively hands-off, relatively passive and to have quarterly performance pressures from their own investors – that makes them concerned primarily with the short term. Whether or not you believe this, you can’t solve it by taking a company private and keeping all the same shareholders. If Tesla’s big shareholders – T. Rowe and Baillie Gifford and Fidelity and Tencent and Vanguard and BlackRock and Capital – are all myopically focused on the short term, then going private and keeping them as shareholders won’t solve anything. If they’re not, then there’s no need to go private.

oragne lovre
Posts: 483
Joined: Tue Nov 25, 2008 3:34 pm

Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by oragne lovre » Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:23 am

Beegaphone wrote:
Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:40 am
Duped? Anyone who owns a Tesla or owns some TSLA is likely to be a happy customer. The only people who have suffered at the hands of Musk have been shorters, and as Bogleheads we don't shed too many tears for them.
I've noticed that even though this is your very first post on this forum, you've already become a hard-core Boglehead. The second clause of your second sentence says it all :D
The finest, albeit the most difficult, of all human achievements is being reasonable.

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