Invest in Tesla?

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roflwaffle
Posts: 423
Joined: Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:08 pm

Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by roflwaffle » Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:16 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:49 pm
Inframan4712 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:20 am
The other manufacturers will have to be dragged kicking and screaming into electric vehicles, no matter how many models they promise, concept artwork they release, etc.
Mitsubishi, Nissan, Ford, and Volvo all had regular production EV's on the market before Tesla (not counting the original roadster, which they used more as a marketable prototype than a production vehicle). BMW, Chevy, Honda, and Toyota all had models on the market the same year or the year after the Model S.

InsideEV's tallies 150,000 electric vehicles sold in the US alone so far this year, and nearly 2/3 of them were made by companies other than Tesla. The forecast is over 2 million EVs globally next year, and Tesla will build less than 1/4 of those.

That other companies haven't individually been as successful in terms of unit-sales and aren't as glamorous as Tesla doesn't qualify as "kicking and screaming." It's still tough to make money in this market. Tesla identified a very good niche, but it also doesn't work to try to enter the market simply by imitating Tesla

The older companies are obviously not strictly focused on electric vehicles like Tesla, but all of them are paying close attention the market, and many of them are already involved in it, even though others don't want to fight for the low margins the current conditions seem to offer. They want to make money, so as they determine it is possible to make cost-competitive electric vehicles, they will.
GM was building EVs a decade before Tesla did. Part of the problem is that they and all of those manufacturers have lobbied against regulations to encourage EV production and aren't interested in building EVs outside of what's required to minimize CAFE/CARB penalties. If I saw any existing manufacturers getting serious about EV production, I'd purchase an EV from them, but so far they've either mostly ignored EVs, or phoned in what they are building.

Tesla only recently (July) sold more EVs in the US than everyone else combined, but they've had the lead in battery production for much longer than that. There are other manufacturers who are pretty close to them in a specific aspect on EV production/design, but no manufacturer I know of is close to them across the board.

https://insideevs.com/tesla-gigafactory ... -combined/

roflwaffle
Posts: 423
Joined: Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:08 pm

Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by roflwaffle » Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:26 pm

matjen wrote:
Sat Aug 04, 2018 12:17 pm
I don't see a BMW M3 listed there and Elon Musk didn't mention those cars did he but he specifically mentioned and compared to a BMW M3? Nor was our conversation about those cars. Goal post moving. I mean unless you are seriously arguing that a something breaking at some time on a 30 year old BMW is the same as the built in design constraints of a brand new Tesla which will happen every single time and can not be fixed, modified, etc. ICE cars that are tracked have things like add on oil coolers, etc.
I replied to your post about BMWs. If you consider discussing them goal post moving, I wouldn't mention them in the first place. I also wouldn't focus so much on a P3D dropping a few seconds off a lap when many production cars do far worse. ;) :beer

niceguy7376
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by niceguy7376 » Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:34 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:49 pm
InsideEV's tallies 150,000 electric vehicles sold in the US alone so far this year, and nearly 2/3 of them were made by companies other than Tesla.
Really? Could you provide a breakdown ?
So you are saying that tesla ONLY sold 50K this year while all other manufacturers sold 100K vehicles?

Are you considering hybrid into electric category?

ThriftyPhD
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by ThriftyPhD » Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:48 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:49 pm
Inframan4712 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:20 am
The other manufacturers will have to be dragged kicking and screaming into electric vehicles, no matter how many models they promise, concept artwork they release, etc.
Mitsubishi, Nissan, Ford, and Volvo all had regular production EV's on the market before Tesla (not counting the original roadster, which they used more as a marketable prototype than a production vehicle). BMW, Chevy, Honda, and Toyota all had models on the market the same year or the year after the Model S.

InsideEV's tallies 150,000 electric vehicles sold in the US alone so far this year, and nearly 2/3 of them were made by companies other than Tesla. The forecast is over 2 million EVs globally next year, and Tesla will build less than 1/4 of those.

That other companies haven't individually been as successful in terms of unit-sales and aren't as glamorous as Tesla doesn't qualify as "kicking and screaming." It's still tough to make money in this market. Tesla identified a very good niche, but it also doesn't work to try to enter the market simply by imitating Tesla

The older companies are obviously not strictly focused on electric vehicles like Tesla, but all of them are paying close attention the market, and many of them are already involved in it, even though others don't want to fight for the low margins the current conditions seem to offer. They want to make money, so as they determine it is possible to make cost-competitive electric vehicles, they will.
Are you including plug in hybrids when you say other manufacturers had models on the market?

Looking at the chart on the bottom of this page, it's clear that if you subset down to BEV (no ICE), Tesla is dominating. Sales of the Bolt are going down while the Model 3 climbs rapidly. Tesla is outselling GM over 10 to 1.

I don't want any pistons, any oil, any gas near my next vehicle. The only true BEV competitor on the market is the Bolt, and GM does not seem interested in it at all.

Anyone can throw a tiny battery into a typical ICE vehicle and get 12 miles range before the traditional engine takes over. Which manufacturers are investing in producing BEV vehicles with 200+ mile range?

That's where they'll have to be dragged kicking and screaming. The old guard does not want to give up their ICE.

[Edit] Found an updated version of the chart above.

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

14000 Model 3 in July was over half of all Total EV sales, including hybrids. Dominating.

iamlucky13
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Location: Western Washington

Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by iamlucky13 » Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:30 pm

roflwaffle wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:16 pm
iamlucky13 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:49 pm
Inframan4712 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:20 am
The other manufacturers will have to be dragged kicking and screaming into electric vehicles, no matter how many models they promise, concept artwork they release, etc.
Mitsubishi, Nissan, Ford, and Volvo all had regular production EV's on the market before Tesla (not counting the original roadster, which they used more as a marketable prototype than a production vehicle). BMW, Chevy, Honda, and Toyota all had models on the market the same year or the year after the Model S.

InsideEV's tallies 150,000 electric vehicles sold in the US alone so far this year, and nearly 2/3 of them were made by companies other than Tesla. The forecast is over 2 million EVs globally next year, and Tesla will build less than 1/4 of those.

That other companies haven't individually been as successful in terms of unit-sales and aren't as glamorous as Tesla doesn't qualify as "kicking and screaming." It's still tough to make money in this market. Tesla identified a very good niche, but it also doesn't work to try to enter the market simply by imitating Tesla

The older companies are obviously not strictly focused on electric vehicles like Tesla, but all of them are paying close attention the market, and many of them are already involved in it, even though others don't want to fight for the low margins the current conditions seem to offer. They want to make money, so as they determine it is possible to make cost-competitive electric vehicles, they will.
GM was building EVs a decade before Tesla did. Part of the problem is that they and all of those manufacturers have lobbied against regulations to encourage EV production and aren't interested in building EVs outside of what's required to minimize CAFE/CARB penalties. If I saw any existing manufacturers getting serious about EV production, I'd purchase an EV from them, but so far they've either mostly ignored EVs, or phoned in what they are building.

Tesla only recently (July) sold more EVs in the US than everyone else combined, but they've had the lead in battery production for much longer than that. There are other manufacturers who are pretty close to them in a specific aspect on EV production/design, but no manufacturer I know of is close to them across the board.

https://insideevs.com/tesla-gigafactory ... -combined/
The GM EV1 was similar to the original Tesla Roadster. It was leased (not sold) in very limited quantities sort of as a marketable prototype.

I'm sticking with the belief that car companies are greedy. You won't convince me otherwise. If the market will pay the price of building them with similar profit margins to their current product, they will build them.

That they are also resistant to legislation that harms the overwhelming majority of their current business more than it helps their electric ventures doesn't qualify as kicking and screaming.

On the other hand, with regards to ineffectual and wildly uneconomical regulatory moves by a single state is a separate matter, sure go ahead and call that kicking and screaming, but it's not directed EV's themselves.
ThriftyPhD wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:48 pm
Are you including plug in hybrids when you say other manufacturers had models on the market?
For my mention of market timeline, no. Mitsubishi i-MiEV, Nissan Leaf, Volvo C30 electric (probably should not have counted - limited production), and Focus Electric all came on the market in 2010 and 2011.

For current year sales numbers, yes, it includes PHEV.
niceguy7376 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:34 pm
iamlucky13 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:49 pm
InsideEV's tallies 150,000 electric vehicles sold in the US alone so far this year, and nearly 2/3 of them were made by companies other than Tesla.
Really? Could you provide a breakdown ?
So you are saying that tesla ONLY sold 50K this year while all other manufacturers sold 100K vehicles?

Are you considering hybrid into electric category?
See the link at the bottom of ThriftyPHD's post. That's the same source I used. Tesla sold 61,487. The rest sold 90,916. I guess if you want to be precise, that's 60/40, not 67/33.

Standard hybrids are not included. Plug-in hybrids are.

carguyny
Posts: 285
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by carguyny » Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:08 pm

ThriftyPhD wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:48 pm
iamlucky13 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:49 pm
Inframan4712 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:20 am
The other manufacturers will have to be dragged kicking and screaming into electric vehicles, no matter how many models they promise, concept artwork they release, etc.
Mitsubishi, Nissan, Ford, and Volvo all had regular production EV's on the market before Tesla (not counting the original roadster, which they used more as a marketable prototype than a production vehicle). BMW, Chevy, Honda, and Toyota all had models on the market the same year or the year after the Model S.

InsideEV's tallies 150,000 electric vehicles sold in the US alone so far this year, and nearly 2/3 of them were made by companies other than Tesla. The forecast is over 2 million EVs globally next year, and Tesla will build less than 1/4 of those.

That other companies haven't individually been as successful in terms of unit-sales and aren't as glamorous as Tesla doesn't qualify as "kicking and screaming." It's still tough to make money in this market. Tesla identified a very good niche, but it also doesn't work to try to enter the market simply by imitating Tesla

The older companies are obviously not strictly focused on electric vehicles like Tesla, but all of them are paying close attention the market, and many of them are already involved in it, even though others don't want to fight for the low margins the current conditions seem to offer. They want to make money, so as they determine it is possible to make cost-competitive electric vehicles, they will.
Are you including plug in hybrids when you say other manufacturers had models on the market?

Looking at the chart on the bottom of this page, it's clear that if you subset down to BEV (no ICE), Tesla is dominating. Sales of the Bolt are going down while the Model 3 climbs rapidly. Tesla is outselling GM over 10 to 1.

I don't want any pistons, any oil, any gas near my next vehicle. The only true BEV competitor on the market is the Bolt, and GM does not seem interested in it at all.

Anyone can throw a tiny battery into a typical ICE vehicle and get 12 miles range before the traditional engine takes over. Which manufacturers are investing in producing BEV vehicles with 200+ mile range?

That's where they'll have to be dragged kicking and screaming. The old guard does not want to give up their ICE.

[Edit] Found an updated version of the chart above.

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

14000 Model 3 in July was over half of all Total EV sales, including hybrids. Dominating.
Jaguar i-Pace, Audi e-Tron and Porsche Taycan are all very interesting products. Jaguar i-Pace is starting to be delivered - Waymo also has a fully self driving version of it. I have a pre-order in on the Taycan and I'll get an early delivery late next year. Currently have a BMW i3 and Cayenne Hybrid PHEV - tried the Tesla Model S, but just didn't love it and thought the build quality was only OK.

emoore
Posts: 456
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by emoore » Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:11 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:30 pm
roflwaffle wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:16 pm
iamlucky13 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:49 pm
Inframan4712 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:20 am
The other manufacturers will have to be dragged kicking and screaming into electric vehicles, no matter how many models they promise, concept artwork they release, etc.
Mitsubishi, Nissan, Ford, and Volvo all had regular production EV's on the market before Tesla (not counting the original roadster, which they used more as a marketable prototype than a production vehicle). BMW, Chevy, Honda, and Toyota all had models on the market the same year or the year after the Model S.

InsideEV's tallies 150,000 electric vehicles sold in the US alone so far this year, and nearly 2/3 of them were made by companies other than Tesla. The forecast is over 2 million EVs globally next year, and Tesla will build less than 1/4 of those.

That other companies haven't individually been as successful in terms of unit-sales and aren't as glamorous as Tesla doesn't qualify as "kicking and screaming." It's still tough to make money in this market. Tesla identified a very good niche, but it also doesn't work to try to enter the market simply by imitating Tesla

The older companies are obviously not strictly focused on electric vehicles like Tesla, but all of them are paying close attention the market, and many of them are already involved in it, even though others don't want to fight for the low margins the current conditions seem to offer. They want to make money, so as they determine it is possible to make cost-competitive electric vehicles, they will.
GM was building EVs a decade before Tesla did. Part of the problem is that they and all of those manufacturers have lobbied against regulations to encourage EV production and aren't interested in building EVs outside of what's required to minimize CAFE/CARB penalties. If I saw any existing manufacturers getting serious about EV production, I'd purchase an EV from them, but so far they've either mostly ignored EVs, or phoned in what they are building.

Tesla only recently (July) sold more EVs in the US than everyone else combined, but they've had the lead in battery production for much longer than that. There are other manufacturers who are pretty close to them in a specific aspect on EV production/design, but no manufacturer I know of is close to them across the board.

https://insideevs.com/tesla-gigafactory ... -combined/
The GM EV1 was similar to the original Tesla Roadster. It was leased (not sold) in very limited quantities sort of as a marketable prototype.

I'm sticking with the belief that car companies are greedy. You won't convince me otherwise. If the market will pay the price of building them with similar profit margins to their current product, they will build them.

That they are also resistant to legislation that harms the overwhelming majority of their current business more than it helps their electric ventures doesn't qualify as kicking and screaming.

On the other hand, with regards to ineffectual and wildly uneconomical regulatory moves by a single state is a separate matter, sure go ahead and call that kicking and screaming, but it's not directed EV's themselves.
ThriftyPhD wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:48 pm
Are you including plug in hybrids when you say other manufacturers had models on the market?
For my mention of market timeline, no. Mitsubishi i-MiEV, Nissan Leaf, Volvo C30 electric (probably should not have counted - limited production), and Focus Electric all came on the market in 2010 and 2011.

For current year sales numbers, yes, it includes PHEV.
niceguy7376 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:34 pm
iamlucky13 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:49 pm
InsideEV's tallies 150,000 electric vehicles sold in the US alone so far this year, and nearly 2/3 of them were made by companies other than Tesla.
Really? Could you provide a breakdown ?
So you are saying that tesla ONLY sold 50K this year while all other manufacturers sold 100K vehicles?

Are you considering hybrid into electric category?
See the link at the bottom of ThriftyPHD's post. That's the same source I used. Tesla sold 61,487. The rest sold 90,916. I guess if you want to be precise, that's 60/40, not 67/33.

Standard hybrids are not included. Plug-in hybrids are.
Not apples to apples comparison. Plug-in hybrids don't count as EVs. I'd like for more auto companies to produce more EVs because I think we need to head that direction sooner rather than later. But the reality is the most auto makers are very hesitant or resistant to going to EVs because they already have a healthy profit margin in ICE cars. I think there will be quite a few surprises in the auto industry in the next 10 years. Might even be some very long lived companies filing for bankruptcy.

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matjen
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by matjen » Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:20 pm

Wall Street Salivates After Elon Musk Floats Taking Tesla Private
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/08/busi ... -musk.html

Translation: No one in this field knows anything about the financing for this alleged deal and the only way to pull it off is the route that penny stocks take.
Some senior executives at top Wall Street banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, did not hear about Mr. Musk’s idea until his tweet sent Tesla shares soaring shortly after noon on Tuesday, according to people close to the banks. Some bankers grumbled on Wednesday that they had not even been able to get Tesla executives to return their phone calls, much less explain the company’s plans.

Some of Tesla’s big institutional investors — including Fidelity and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund — also were blindsided by Mr. Musk’s comments, according to people close to those companies.
Why in the heck would institutional investors want to be dragged into illiquid, opaque and unaccountable markets? This makes no sense.
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.

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TimeRunner
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by TimeRunner » Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:50 pm

carguyny wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:08 pm
Jaguar i-Pace, Audi e-Tron and Porsche Taycan are all very interesting products. Jaguar i-Pace is starting to be delivered - Waymo also has a fully self driving version of it. I have a pre-order in on the Taycan and I'll get an early delivery late next year. Currently have a BMW i3 and Cayenne Hybrid PHEV - tried the Tesla Model S, but just didn't love it and thought the build quality was only OK.
The Jag, Porsche,and Audi e-cars are bracing. I've seen quite a few Teslas, X's, S's and 3's, and perhaps they were fresh a few years ago, but they seem frankly boring and declasse' now. But that's California, where describing something as passe' is passe'. :mrgreen:
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.” - George Orwell, 1984

iamlucky13
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Location: Western Washington

Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by iamlucky13 » Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:29 pm

emoore wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:11 pm
iamlucky13 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:30 pm
roflwaffle wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:16 pm
Are you considering hybrid into electric category?
Standard hybrids are not included. Plug-in hybrids are.
Plug-in hybrids don't count as EVs.
You don't count them as EV's

I do count Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles as Electric Vehicles, as does Inside EV's, the publication in question, and I believe many other outlets that deal with the automotive industry or energy efficiency.

Since they provide the same ability to cover the majority of most households' driving needs under electric power, I'm not clear why you would not count them, especially since they also eliminate one of the most commonly cited reasons not for considering pure battery electric vehicles.
But the reality is the most auto makers are very hesitant or resistant to going to EVs because they already have a healthy profit margin in ICE cars. I think there will be quite a few surprises in the auto industry in the next 10 years. Might even be some very long lived companies filing for bankruptcy.
For that to transpire, the margins on EV's first have to become better than on ICE's, which will then lead to the major ICE manufacturers becoming major EV manufacturers. That sounds like a good transition.

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DanMahowny
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by DanMahowny » Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:12 am

My sources indicate MoviePass will acquire Tesla in an all cash deal. Funding secured. Hahahaha!

Seriously, is anyone taking Musk seriously? It's just another lie piled on a mountain of lies. That's what he does.

He's angry about the shorts, and just can't let it go. Very thin-skinned, insecure dude. Only gullible people believe this guy.

Tesla is in serious trouble financially, and will fold before the end of the current quarter, unless some entity gives them a few billion to keep the fraud alive. The Model 3 is a bust. The Tesla brand is damaged.

Musk's tweet was a clear sign of desperation. There has NEVER been a better time to short the stock.
Funding secured

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ReformedSpender
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by ReformedSpender » Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:59 am

Ironically, the closing price of TSLA the day of Musk's tweet parade, pushed Tesla's $2.3 billion debt above its conversion price. However, unfortunately for Musk, it has not held over that price.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... ss+News%29

Surely this all just coincidence right?

:beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

alfaspider
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by alfaspider » Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:04 am

DanMahowny wrote:
Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:12 am
My sources indicate MoviePass will acquire Tesla in an all cash deal. Funding secured. Hahahaha!

Seriously, is anyone taking Musk seriously? It's just another lie piled on a mountain of lies. That's what he does.

He's angry about the shorts, and just can't let it go. Very thin-skinned, insecure dude. Only gullible people believe this guy.

Tesla is in serious trouble financially, and will fold before the end of the current quarter, unless some entity gives them a few billion to keep the fraud alive. The Model 3 is a bust. The Tesla brand is damaged.

Musk's tweet was a clear sign of desperation. There has NEVER been a better time to short the stock.
While I agree Tesla has some serious obstacles to surmount, your prediction of the company folding "within the quarter" is not based on any rational analysis. They have enough liquidity to make it through the end of the year and they've hardly reached the end of their rope in terms of securing additional financing.

As for the tweet itself, hopefully for Musk's sake he does have private investors lined up. Otherwise, the SEC could cause some serious problems for the company.

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market timer
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by market timer » Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:21 am

DanMahowny wrote:
Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:12 am
Musk's tweet was a clear sign of desperation. There has NEVER been a better time to short the stock.
Agreed. I shorted yesterday by selling in-the-money call options. Musk seems more like a social media manager than a CEO.

dk240t
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by dk240t » Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:22 am

emoore wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:11 pm
think there will be quite a few surprises in the auto industry in the next 10 years. Might even be some very long lived companies filing for bankruptcy.
I wouldn't consider Tesla a long lived company...

roflwaffle
Posts: 423
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by roflwaffle » Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:23 am

iamlucky13 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:30 pm
roflwaffle wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:16 pm
iamlucky13 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:49 pm
Inframan4712 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:20 am
The other manufacturers will have to be dragged kicking and screaming into electric vehicles, no matter how many models they promise, concept artwork they release, etc.
Mitsubishi, Nissan, Ford, and Volvo all had regular production EV's on the market before Tesla (not counting the original roadster, which they used more as a marketable prototype than a production vehicle). BMW, Chevy, Honda, and Toyota all had models on the market the same year or the year after the Model S.

InsideEV's tallies 150,000 electric vehicles sold in the US alone so far this year, and nearly 2/3 of them were made by companies other than Tesla. The forecast is over 2 million EVs globally next year, and Tesla will build less than 1/4 of those.

That other companies haven't individually been as successful in terms of unit-sales and aren't as glamorous as Tesla doesn't qualify as "kicking and screaming." It's still tough to make money in this market. Tesla identified a very good niche, but it also doesn't work to try to enter the market simply by imitating Tesla

The older companies are obviously not strictly focused on electric vehicles like Tesla, but all of them are paying close attention the market, and many of them are already involved in it, even though others don't want to fight for the low margins the current conditions seem to offer. They want to make money, so as they determine it is possible to make cost-competitive electric vehicles, they will.
GM was building EVs a decade before Tesla did. Part of the problem is that they and all of those manufacturers have lobbied against regulations to encourage EV production and aren't interested in building EVs outside of what's required to minimize CAFE/CARB penalties. If I saw any existing manufacturers getting serious about EV production, I'd purchase an EV from them, but so far they've either mostly ignored EVs, or phoned in what they are building.

Tesla only recently (July) sold more EVs in the US than everyone else combined, but they've had the lead in battery production for much longer than that. There are other manufacturers who are pretty close to them in a specific aspect on EV production/design, but no manufacturer I know of is close to them across the board.

https://insideevs.com/tesla-gigafactory ... -combined/
The GM EV1 was similar to the original Tesla Roadster. It was leased (not sold) in very limited quantities sort of as a marketable prototype.

I'm sticking with the belief that car companies are greedy. You won't convince me otherwise. If the market will pay the price of building them with similar profit margins to their current product, they will build them.

That they are also resistant to legislation that harms the overwhelming majority of their current business more than it helps their electric ventures doesn't qualify as kicking and screaming.

On the other hand, with regards to ineffectual and wildly uneconomical regulatory moves by a single state is a separate matter, sure go ahead and call that kicking and screaming, but it's not directed EV's themselves.
I agree that car companies are greedy, but that doesn't mean EVs aren't viable. Most car companies have to decades of time and billions of dollars invested in ICEs, and being greedy, they would rather drag their feet on EVs and minimize the risks to those investments than aggressively push a product that could undermine their other products. They also have to appease their customers, dealers, who make most of their money off of maintenance.

They'll naturally oppose anything that could reduce their or their customer's profit margins in the same way that other businesses who polluted in the past opposed regulations to clean up that pollution. Safety, health, and pollution regulations are uneconomic for the groups that have to implement them. Why should they pay for something when they can pass the cost on to someone else? Their problem is when those costs become a burden on society and there are regulations imposed such that the groups responsible for them have to mitigate and/or pay for them.

As for this being the moves of a single state, there are 13 section 177 states following CA's emissions regulations that represent about a third of the US population. I support these regulations because they reduce pollution and increase energy independence. :beer

emoore
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by emoore » Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:24 am

dk240t wrote:
Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:22 am
emoore wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:11 pm
think there will be quite a few surprises in the auto industry in the next 10 years. Might even be some very long lived companies filing for bankruptcy.
I wouldn't consider Tesla a long lived company...
Tesla going under wouldn't be a surprise to many so your comment doesn't make any sense.

Valuethinker
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Aug 10, 2018 4:35 am

market timer wrote:
Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:21 am
DanMahowny wrote:
Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:12 am
Musk's tweet was a clear sign of desperation. There has NEVER been a better time to short the stock.
Agreed. I shorted yesterday by selling in-the-money call options. Musk seems more like a social media manager than a CEO.
Am I right in thinking that as Tesla's price falls, you have capped upside? Basically you get the option premium up front? But you cannot do better than that?

But if Tesla's stock rises, you have theoretically uncapped downside? Time value means you cannot lose infinite money, but you can lose a lot of money if, say, Tesla doubles in price?

If one is using options, and one is bearish on Tesla, isn't the right thing to do to buy Puts? Preferrably Out of The Money Puts?

Valuethinker
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Aug 10, 2018 4:50 am

roflwaffle wrote:
Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:23 am

I agree that car companies are greedy, but that doesn't mean EVs aren't viable. Most car companies have to decades of time and billions of dollars invested in ICEs, and being greedy, they would rather drag their feet on EVs and minimize the risks to those investments than aggressively push a product that could undermine their other products. They also have to appease their customers, dealers, who make most of their money off of maintenance.
The question is surely not if EVs are viable?

They most assuredly are. Tesla among others has proven that. And the need for an EV solution has not gone away - in fact it is getting more urgent. The speed of mass adoption, when it comes, will blind us. I freely admit that is likely to be after 2030 not immediately after 2018.

The US is actually a bad place to develop an EV ecosystem. Distances are very large and petrol (gasoline) prices are low by developed country standards. The average distance travelled per day by commuters and for shopping etc. must be quite high. The environment is extreme, so heating and AC use are de rigeur? That cuts range.

Most other developed countries are much closer to the ideal circumstances. Shorter distances, less use of climate control. Higher gasoline prices. China is becoming an EV leader - they have the air pollution problems to necessitate action.

The issue is more whether Tesla is the one to lead that revolution.

That's a much harder call. I look at the finances of the company, the quality control issues, the record of missed targets, the enthusiasm for tangential deals (Solar City) and prototypes as product announcement (heavy trucks), and think ... overvalued and could be bust.

Enthusiasts look at the demand for the cars and the way it has set a whole new tone for the industry and think the opposite. The BMW i3, say, is just not much of a car compared to a Tesla. Neither is the plug in Prius.

As for this being the moves of a single state, there are 13 section 177 states following CA's emissions regulations that represent about a third of the US population. I support these regulations because they reduce pollution and increase energy independence. :beer
The weird thing is the US is becoming the world's largest oil producer. Again. Thus the energy independence argument is not as strong as it was. It is not, however, dead-- because of course the US could save that consumption and export it instead.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Fri Aug 10, 2018 5:51 am

If one is using options, and one is bearish on Tesla, isn't the right thing to do to buy Puts? Preferrably Out of The Money Puts?
Surely that’s the case if one is convinced that Tesla is going to $0 shortly.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:21 am

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 5:51 am
If one is using options, and one is bearish on Tesla, isn't the right thing to do to buy Puts? Preferrably Out of The Money Puts?
Surely that’s the case if one is convinced that Tesla is going to $0 shortly.
Market Timer says he is writing in of the money calls. I am not sure why?

In principle that exposes you to infinite losses? (If you don't already hold the underlying stock?)

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by bgf » Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:30 am

harikaried wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:17 pm
Whakamole wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:41 pm
Shouldn't a CEO be more focused on building a viable long-term business than going after short sellers?
Short sellers distract the business from its long-term mission with attacks that try to push the stock price down. This could be misinformation or fake news to confuse potential buyers or sabotage within the company making employees less focused. I would think it is the job of the CEO to make these distractions go away as it affects all the employees' productiveness.
this is true primarily when the entire valuation of the company is dependent on expectations and sentiment (building castles in the sky) and not on operations and cash flow. if you have a strong, profitable company with good management and execution, shareholders tend to not care so much about shortsellers...
“TE OCCIDERE POSSUNT SED TE EDERE NON POSSUNT NEFAS EST"

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by susze » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:12 am

carguyny wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:08 pm
ThriftyPhD wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:48 pm
iamlucky13 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:49 pm
Inframan4712 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:20 am
The other manufacturers will have to be dragged kicking and screaming into electric vehicles, no matter how many models they promise, concept artwork they release, etc.
Mitsubishi, Nissan, Ford, and Volvo all had regular production EV's on the market before Tesla (not counting the original roadster, which they used more as a marketable prototype than a production vehicle). BMW, Chevy, Honda, and Toyota all had models on the market the same year or the year after the Model S.

InsideEV's tallies 150,000 electric vehicles sold in the US alone so far this year, and nearly 2/3 of them were made by companies other than Tesla. The forecast is over 2 million EVs globally next year, and Tesla will build less than 1/4 of those.

That other companies haven't individually been as successful in terms of unit-sales and aren't as glamorous as Tesla doesn't qualify as "kicking and screaming." It's still tough to make money in this market. Tesla identified a very good niche, but it also doesn't work to try to enter the market simply by imitating Tesla

The older companies are obviously not strictly focused on electric vehicles like Tesla, but all of them are paying close attention the market, and many of them are already involved in it, even though others don't want to fight for the low margins the current conditions seem to offer. They want to make money, so as they determine it is possible to make cost-competitive electric vehicles, they will.
Are you including plug in hybrids when you say other manufacturers had models on the market?

Looking at the chart on the bottom of this page, it's clear that if you subset down to BEV (no ICE), Tesla is dominating. Sales of the Bolt are going down while the Model 3 climbs rapidly. Tesla is outselling GM over 10 to 1.

I don't want any pistons, any oil, any gas near my next vehicle. The only true BEV competitor on the market is the Bolt, and GM does not seem interested in it at all.

Anyone can throw a tiny battery into a typical ICE vehicle and get 12 miles range before the traditional engine takes over. Which manufacturers are investing in producing BEV vehicles with 200+ mile range?

That's where they'll have to be dragged kicking and screaming. The old guard does not want to give up their ICE.

[Edit] Found an updated version of the chart above.

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

14000 Model 3 in July was over half of all Total EV sales, including hybrids. Dominating.
Jaguar i-Pace, Audi e-Tron and Porsche Taycan are all very interesting products. Jaguar i-Pace is starting to be delivered - Waymo also has a fully self driving version of it. I have a pre-order in on the Taycan and I'll get an early delivery late next year. Currently have a BMW i3 and Cayenne Hybrid PHEV - tried the Tesla Model S, but just didn't love it and thought the build quality was only OK.
Isnt the iPace delayed again? 2019 now in many areas? (yeah they are just following the Tesla schedule now:) Also where are you going to charge that car? Tesla has the supercharger network built up, even tho Musk says he hates Moats and even if its not really a moat in a business sense; to customers and public perception it is a Tesla advantage with range anxiety a concern, eventho it shouldnt be with EVs to most of the drivers out there.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:15 am

bgf wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:30 am
harikaried wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:17 pm
Whakamole wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:41 pm
Shouldn't a CEO be more focused on building a viable long-term business than going after short sellers?
Short sellers distract the business from its long-term mission with attacks that try to push the stock price down. This could be misinformation or fake news to confuse potential buyers or sabotage within the company making employees less focused. I would think it is the job of the CEO to make these distractions go away as it affects all the employees' productiveness.
this is true primarily when the entire valuation of the company is dependent on expectations and sentiment (building castles in the sky) and not on operations and cash flow. if you have a strong, profitable company with good management and execution, shareholders tend to not care so much about shortsellers...
A Board should only care if:

- the company needs to raise new equity soon so the dilution percentage is dependent upon the share price

- they fear a hostile takeover

The latter is not relevant here.

We do know Tesla has to raise more money from investors at some point. It's a long way to cash flow breakeven. Solar City did not help - estimate I saw was that it costs the Tesla shareholders $1bn additional cash p.a.

It's very concerning that a CEO of a company with so many immediate execution problems is so focused on alleged manipulations of his stock price.

Musk should let his results defeat the short sellers. Not his words. Unless ... the results are just not going to be good enough?

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by DanMahowny » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:18 am

harikaried wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:17 pm
Short sellers distract the business from its long-term mission with attacks that try to push the stock price down. This could be misinformation or fake news to confuse potential buyers or sabotage within the company making employees less focused. I would think it is the job of the CEO to make these distractions go away as it affects all the employees' productiveness.
Apple is the 2nd most shorted stock. They seem to be doing pretty well.
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by niceguy7376 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:45 am

DanMahowny wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:18 am
Apple is the 2nd most shorted stock. They seem to be doing pretty well.
Atleast for our forum sake,Apple doesnt have posters like you preaching the same thing for the last 10+ months.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Nate79 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:58 am

I'm not sure if this was mentioned yet or not but the SEC has opened a probe of the Musk tweets:

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2018/ ... out-tweet/

The claim that funding had been secured for taking Tesla private will be an interesting one for him to prove to the SEC. A claim by an officer of a public company better be true or else could face stock manipulation charges.

Bloomberg reports that the SEC was already investigating Tesla for Musk's claims for production goals and sales targets and this new probe just adds more pressure.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... statements

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by bgf » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:10 am

DanMahowny wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:18 am
harikaried wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:17 pm
Short sellers distract the business from its long-term mission with attacks that try to push the stock price down. This could be misinformation or fake news to confuse potential buyers or sabotage within the company making employees less focused. I would think it is the job of the CEO to make these distractions go away as it affects all the employees' productiveness.
Apple is the 2nd most shorted stock. They seem to be doing pretty well.
http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_30 ... lites.html

how is apple the 2nd most shorted stock? there is no way. maybe if you were using some nominal metric as in the total value of shorted shares (which wouldn't make sense) but even then i dont think that's correct.
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by HomerJ » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:15 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:21 am
TomatoTomahto wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 5:51 am
If one is using options, and one is bearish on Tesla, isn't the right thing to do to buy Puts? Preferrably Out of The Money Puts?
Surely that’s the case if one is convinced that Tesla is going to $0 shortly.
Market Timer says he is writing in of the money calls. I am not sure why?

In principle that exposes you to infinite losses? (If you don't already hold the underlying stock?)
Well, isn't Tesla price now capped below $420? At least for a while?

Infinite losses happen if the stock rises infinitely, but in this particular case there is a (temporary?) ceiling not that far away from the current price.
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by DanMahowny » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:20 am

bgf wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:10 am
how is apple the 2nd most shorted stock? there is no way.
"Tesla Overtakes Apple As Most-Shorted US Stock"

https://www.investopedia.com/news/tesla ... s-markets/

**not posting this to argue with you man. But this is my source. Maybe it's fake news. I dunno.
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Re: TSLA privatization

Post by unclescrooge » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:27 am

triceratop wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:46 pm
Here is the most informed analysis of the recent TSLA drama: Elon Musk Has Some Fun With Tesla by Matt Levine in Bloomberg
The truth is Elon made $100B from ICOs and he just wants to buy Tesla before the bubble bursts :mrgreen:

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by market timer » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:33 am

HomerJ wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:15 am
Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:21 am
TomatoTomahto wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 5:51 am
If one is using options, and one is bearish on Tesla, isn't the right thing to do to buy Puts? Preferrably Out of The Money Puts?
Surely that’s the case if one is convinced that Tesla is going to $0 shortly.
Market Timer says he is writing in of the money calls. I am not sure why?

In principle that exposes you to infinite losses? (If you don't already hold the underlying stock?)
Well, isn't Tesla price now capped below $420? At least for a while?

Infinite losses happen if the stock rises infinitely, but in this particular case there is a (temporary?) ceiling not that far away from the current price.
Yeah, that was my armchair trader reasoning. If Tesla goes to $420, I'm out $1500. If it goes to $350 or lower, I make $5500. Seemed like a decent gamble.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by jdb » Fri Aug 10, 2018 3:24 pm

So the answer to the OP question posted on March 28 is clear- anyone buying at the then prevailing stock price could have made a profit of about 100 points by selling this week. Not too many of us were saying yes. And I am still saying yes, would hope that my stock position, which has more than doubled in value again, could continue in a private company. But am amazed at all the naysayers and haters. So much money left on the table if the naysayers and haters had only been long investors past six years. Good luck. And by the way, our physician son and his wife absolutely love their new Model 3.
Last edited by jdb on Fri Aug 10, 2018 3:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by 3funder » Fri Aug 10, 2018 3:25 pm

Nope.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Nate79 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 4:23 pm

jdb wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 3:24 pm
So the answer to the OP question posted on March 28 is clear- anyone buying at the then prevailing stock price could have made a profit of about 100 points by selling this week. Not too many of us were saying yes. And I am still saying yes, would hope that my stock position, which has more than doubled in value again, could continue in a private company. But am amazed at all the naysayers and haters. So much money left on the table if the naysayers and haters had only been long investors past six years. Good luck. And by the way, our physician son and his wife absolutely love their new Model 3.
Investing in individual stocks is not recommended on this site, whether it is Tesla or not. Not sure why you would expect to have a positive response in a stock picking thread on Bogleheads.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by 4nursebee » Sat Aug 11, 2018 4:26 am

Self driving car white paper follows. I think I saw a principal in the company suggest $4000 price target next 5 years

http://research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_ ... 0a674f20f7


It will be interesting to continue following what the big boys are doing: https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/inst ... l-holdings
Thus far, 4 of the top ten have reported, 3 bought more, one sold. I hope FIDO adds.
4nursebee

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by carguyny » Sat Aug 11, 2018 5:32 am

4nursebee wrote:
Sat Aug 11, 2018 4:26 am
Self driving car white paper follows. I think I saw a principal in the company suggest $4000 price target next 5 years

http://research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_ ... 0a674f20f7


It will be interesting to continue following what the big boys are doing: https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/inst ... l-holdings
Thus far, 4 of the top ten have reported, 3 bought more, one sold. I hope FIDO adds.
This is the leader by far in self driving cars https://waymo.com/ . Waymo is the only technology operating commercially with no one behind the wheel operating in the US.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Nate79 » Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:23 pm

At the risk of bumping this thread this article popped up in CNNMoney. It seems the idea of taking Tesla private is maybe more serious and Musk is expecting this can be done with Saudi's money:

https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/13/news/c ... index.html
Buying all Tesla's shares at the $420 price would cost almost $72 billion. But Musk has said he expects to hold on to his 20% stake in the company. He has also said he expects many other investors would retain their shares in a privately held Tesla.

On Monday, he estimated that about two-thirds of the shares held by current investors would remain in those hands, which would reduce the cost of taking the company private to just under $24 billion.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by matjen » Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:40 pm

Matt Levine is out with an entire blog on this which is rather rare for him. This one will leave a mark.

Elon Musk’s Funding for Tesla Wasn’t So Secure
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles ... -so-secure
Today he posted an “Update on Taking Tesla Private” – on Tesla’s blog, not on Twitter – that sort of answered the question: He didn’t have the funding!
and...
But if you do decide to just tweet your every random thought without consulting anyone, then any errors are kind of on you. It is not really an excuse to say that you didn’t mean to mislead anyone, that you thought that what you were saying was right, that it made sense to you. Because every other public-company CEO cares about this stuff, and tries to avoid saying untrue material things in casual public communications. If you don’t care, if you are just reckless about your public announcements of material information, then you should expect that to eventually go wrong. 1

Here is the other thing about Musk’s plan to go private while keeping all the same shareholders. It makes no sense. Usually when a CEO wants to take his company private, it’s because he wants to change something. One thing that usually changes is leverage; a going-private transaction normally involves borrowing a lot of money to juice the equity returns of the company, something that is obviously not a consideration here. (“I do not think it would be wise to burden Tesla with significantly increased debt,” blogged Musk, correctly.)
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Whakamole » Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:18 pm

matjen wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:40 pm
Matt Levine is out with an entire blog on this which is rather rare for him. This one will leave a mark.
This has to be stock price manipulation, right?

I'm also not sure how a company with millions of shareholders would be private. That sounds public to me. Otherwise other companies would just claim to be "private" while still having access to the equity markets but not having to deal with SEC filings, Sarbanes-Oxley compliance, etc.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by susze » Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:23 pm

Nate79 wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:23 pm
At the risk of bumping this thread this article popped up in CNNMoney. It seems the idea of taking Tesla private is maybe more serious and Musk is expecting this can be done with Saudi's money:

https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/13/news/c ... index.html
Buying all Tesla's shares at the $420 price would cost almost $72 billion. But Musk has said he expects to hold on to his 20% stake in the company. He has also said he expects many other investors would retain their shares in a privately held Tesla.

On Monday, he estimated that about two-thirds of the shares held by current investors would remain in those hands, which would reduce the cost of taking the company private to just under $24 billion.
How would he do it with Saudi money? CIFIUS would definitely reject this especially if there is cross research with SpaceX. Same would probably go for Tencent and maybe Softbank(but they could be tapped out after ARM buyout)

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by inbox788 » Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:28 pm

susze wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:23 pm
How would he do it with Saudi money? CIFIUS would definitely reject this especially if there is cross research with SpaceX. Same would probably go for Tencent and maybe Softbank(but they could be tapped out after ARM buyout)
Tesla is currently a $60B company at $356/share. Which holders would need to be bought out? Do index managers care at all? And which of the active managers would object to a 20% premium? The biggest concentrated holding I'm seeing is Baillie Gifford and Company (7.64%) and Jennison Associates LLC (2.00%) and they may be investing for others as well. Some or most of the "25.31% % of Shares Held by All Insider" may be in the hands of Musk himself. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/i ... s-tsla.asp

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/holders?p=TSLA

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baillie_Gifford
https://www.jennison.com/about/

There are reports the Saudi sovereign wealth fund already owns nearly 5%, so if getting to 50% is all that is needed to take the company private, they shouldn't have too much trouble. Coming up with the cash to buy out 1/3 or half of the $72B ($60B + 20% premium) means around $24B, which is only about 1% of the $2T fund. Financing doesn't appear to be a major hurdle.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_In ... udi_Arabia

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by susze » Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:42 pm

inbox788 wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:28 pm
susze wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:23 pm
How would he do it with Saudi money? CIFIUS would definitely reject this especially if there is cross research with SpaceX. Same would probably go for Tencent and maybe Softbank(but they could be tapped out after ARM buyout)
Tesla is currently a $60B company at $356/share. Which holders would need to be bought out? Do index managers care at all? And which of the active managers would object to a 20% premium? The biggest concentrated holding I'm seeing is Baillie Gifford and Company (7.64%) and Jennison Associates LLC (2.00%) and they may be investing for others as well. Some or most of the "25.31% % of Shares Held by All Insider" may be in the hands of Musk himself. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/i ... s-tsla.asp

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/holders?p=TSLA

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baillie_Gifford
https://www.jennison.com/about/

There are reports the Saudi sovereign wealth fund already owns nearly 5%, so if getting to 50% is all that is needed to take the company private, they shouldn't have too much trouble. Coming up with the cash to buy out 1/3 or half of the $72B ($60B + 20% premium) means around $24B, which is only about 1% of the $2T fund. Financing doesn't appear to be a major hurdle.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_In ... udi_Arabia
Oh yes I agree was only saying that Foriegn investment would be a more difficult option because of CIFIUS. He could gather other sources that you have mentioned. And up to 10% from each foreign source. But depending on Saudis may not be an option because of CIFIUS. But in the end who really knows

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Committ ... ted_States

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by matjen » Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:28 am

inbox788 wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:28 pm

There are reports the Saudi sovereign wealth fund already owns nearly 5%, so if getting to 50% is all that is needed to take the company private, they shouldn't have too much trouble. Coming up with the cash to buy out 1/3 or half of the $72B ($60B + 20% premium) means around $24B, which is only about 1% of the $2T fund. Financing doesn't appear to be a major hurdle.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_In ... udi_Arabia
That $2 trillion figure is not accurate at all. The WSJ has it at 200 billion. Even articles that list 2T say way in the future and describe how misleading the figure is.

Larger Tesla Stake by Giant Saudi Fund Faces Hurdles
PIF is already on the hook to contribute to initiatives including Neom, the $500 billion futuristic megacity
https://www.wsj.com/articles/larger-tes ... cle_inline
As of last year, PIF officials and outside consultants were struggling to calculate the fund’s value, The Wall Street Journal has reported. Estimates ranged from $200 billion to $300 billion, including assets like a 70% stake in Saudi Basic Industries Co., or Sabic, one of the world’s largest petrochemical companies.
How Saudi Arabia Is Building Its $2 Trillion Fund
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... cktake-q-a
The fund aims to increase its assets to $400 billion by 2020 from $230 billion currently.
and
5. Where does the $2 trillion figure come from?
The bulk of that is based on Aramco’s value. While the Aramco holding would vault the PIF ahead of Norway’s $850 billion sovereign wealth fund, currently the world’s largest, most of the PIF’s assets will be illiquid until the Saudis sell Aramco shares. For this reason, some analysts say the $2 trillion figure is misleading. Aramco could have a market value between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion now that the government has slashed the oil producer’s tax burden to attract investors, analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. and Rystad Energy AS said in March. But other industry experts say Aramco is worth no more than half, and maybe as little as a fifth, of $2 trillion, based on oil reserves and cash-flow projections under different tax scenarios.
Ooops!

Saudi Aramco’s $2 Trillion Zombie IPO
Likely investors doubt the value of the proposed public offering. How will Mohammed bin Salman save face?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... zombie-ipo
The initial public offering—planned for 2018—would be the deal to end all deals, raising more than $100 billion for a new sovereign wealth fund, creating the world’s most valuable listed company, and funneling hundreds of millions of dollars in fees to Wall Street’s elite banks. MBS, as the 32-year-old crown prince is known, said the company would be worth at least $2 trillion—more than double the current market valuation of Apple Inc.—and perhaps as much as $2.5 trillion.

Two years later, things look very different. A combination of hubris on the valuation, an overambitious timetable, and indifference—if not derision—from global investors doubtful that an IPO would benefit them, has forced Riyadh to delay the sale until at least 2019. And many observers—including members of the company’s senior leadership—doubt whether it will happen at all. Aramco has become the zombie IPO.
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by linenfort » Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:21 am

China’s version, Nio, will have an IPO soon.
https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/14/invest ... index.html
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:34 am

Perhaps it's time for Elon to step down as CEO and put someone in charge who knows how to properly run a public company. I get that he's a "big ideas" guy who wants to change the world. That's fine. As CTO, he can do that, setting the direction of what Tesla is going to do. He needs someone to grab his phone and smash it against a wall, hand him an old analog flip phone to make phone calls and nuke his twitter account from a space-X rocket. Have a senior lawyer review every single thing he plans to publicly say and censor the stupid, random thoughts. Perhaps when the Saudis take over, they'll force this.....after they build a car and battery factory in the Kingdom.
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inbox788
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by inbox788 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:13 am

matjen wrote:
Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:28 am
5. Where does the $2 trillion figure come from?
The bulk of that is based on Aramco’s value. While the Aramco holding would vault the PIF ahead of Norway’s $850 billion sovereign wealth fund, currently the world’s largest, most of the PIF’s assets will be illiquid until the Saudis sell Aramco shares. For this reason, some analysts say the $2 trillion figure is misleading. Aramco could have a market value between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion now that the government has slashed the oil producer’s tax burden to attract investors, analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. and Rystad Energy AS said in March. But other industry experts say Aramco is worth no more than half, and maybe as little as a fifth, of $2 trillion, based on oil reserves and cash-flow projections under different tax scenarios.
Good point, but they should be able to raise the needed amount at this time. If/when every gas/diesel vehicle is replaced with electric, their core business is going to take a big hit. It's prudent for them to cover all the bases and take out an insurance policy. If Tesla continues to grow and begins to cause oil to lag, they would have to make a bigger decision down the road.

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/ind ... sportation

There are still many other uses of petroleum products that don't have immediate threats, like jet fuel, heating oil, and feedstocks, so the industry should be around and a significant portion of the economy for the foreseeable future, whatever the valuation.
In 2017, of the approximately 7.3 billion barrels of total U.S. petroleum consumption, 47% was motor gasoline (includes ethanol), 20% was distillate fuel (heating oil and diesel fuel), and 8% was jet fuel.
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=41&t=6

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DanMahowny
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by DanMahowny » Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:28 am

Tesla is not going private. Musk's tweet was a lie. It's obvious, right?

Now Tesla is scrambling to make it "real" since admitting it was all a lie isn't a very good approach.

Everything Musk says is a lie.

The end is near. When it's all over, Musk will go down as the greatest fraud in the history of the world. Incredible that he duped so many people.
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Beegaphone
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Beegaphone » Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:40 am

Duped? Anyone who owns a Tesla or owns some TSLA is likely to be a happy customer. The only people who have suffered at the hands of Musk have been shorters, and as Bogleheads we don't shed too many tears for them.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by alfaspider » Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:00 am

DanMahowny wrote:
Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:28 am
Tesla is not going private. Musk's tweet was a lie. It's obvious, right?

Now Tesla is scrambling to make it "real" since admitting it was all a lie isn't a very good approach.

Everything Musk says is a lie.

The end is near. When it's all over, Musk will go down as the greatest fraud in the history of the world. Incredible that he duped so many people.
Even if you think Musk is a huckster, Madoff lost $68 Billion (more than Teslas market cap) and there was far less substance than Tesla. Would be rather hard to top that one.

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