Invest in Tesla?

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aqan
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by aqan » Tue Aug 07, 2018 7:04 pm

jdb wrote:
Tue Aug 07, 2018 6:41 pm
This means TSLA in play. I suspect that some serious number crunching now being done by likes of Apple, Google, and legacy auto makers like Daimler Benz and Volkswagen. Not to mention unknown Chinese or Japanese companies. We live in interesting times.
I don't think Musk wants to lose control of the company that's why he's hoping that the existing shareholders stay, so no single investor has majority share.
Moreover, Telsa is worth exactly $0 without Musk, and apple, google, etc can't own a company which has a key man is someone else.

ThriftyPhD
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by ThriftyPhD » Tue Aug 07, 2018 7:56 pm

matjen wrote:
Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:39 pm
garlandwhizzer wrote:
Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:34 pm
One reason, I suspect, for the Musk announcement was to produce a short squeeze and drive up Tesla's sagging price. Tesla is the most heavily shorted stock in history, I believe, and currently hedge funds have huge short positions. By announcing a potential $420/share private purchase with financing lined up (he didn't say how), he repositioned the Tesla pricing argument. The after market action--Tesla went up more than 10% immediately--suggests to me that some numerous short positions got worried and bought the stock to limit losses just in case Musk was telling the truth and had financing and a buyer at $420/share. Previously in pricing action it was Tesla versus fundamentals which seems like a no-brainer for fundamentals driving the price lower. Now it may be Tesla versus short covering which is a better position for Musk, particularly in light of the fact that the Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund recently took a 2 billon dollar position in Tesla. If shorts are worried that ultra-deep pockets stand behind Tesla regardless of fundamentals they may exit en mass and keep driving up the price. Possibly that was Musk's strategy in the first place.

When you buy Tesla you're buying a dream that may or may not come true in the distant future, but in the meantime it has no more substance than a moonbeam.

Garland Whizzer
I'm trying to figure out why the price didn't go right up to $420 or at least significantly closer. The only conclusion is that the market is not convinced that much of what Musk says/tweets is truthful.
Why would you buy a stock for $420 today to get $420 at some unknown date in the future? Even if you knew it was going to happen March 01 2019 and were 100% certain it would happen, you wouldn't buy at $420 today. You would buy at a reduced price so that you would have a gain. The gain you would demand is linked to the certainty you have towards the timing and likelihood of a buyout at $420. Risk/reward.

ThriftyPhD
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by ThriftyPhD » Tue Aug 07, 2018 7:57 pm

jdb wrote:
Tue Aug 07, 2018 6:41 pm
This means TSLA in play. I suspect that some serious number crunching now being done by likes of Apple, Google, and legacy auto makers like Daimler Benz and Volkswagen. Not to mention unknown Chinese or Japanese companies. We live in interesting times.
None of these would make the company private. Being bought by a public company makes you a subsidiary of a public company.

ThriftyPhD
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by ThriftyPhD » Tue Aug 07, 2018 8:13 pm

garlandwhizzer wrote:
Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:34 pm
One reason, I suspect, for the Musk announcement was to produce a short squeeze and drive up Tesla's sagging price. Tesla is the most heavily shorted stock in history, I believe, and currently hedge funds have huge short positions. By announcing a potential $420/share private purchase with financing lined up (he didn't say how), he repositioned the Tesla pricing argument. The after market action--Tesla went up more than 10% immediately--suggests to me that some numerous short positions got worried and bought the stock to limit losses just in case Musk was telling the truth and had financing and a buyer at $420/share. Previously in pricing action it was Tesla versus fundamentals which seems like a no-brainer for fundamentals driving the price lower. Now it may be Tesla versus short covering which is a better position for Musk, particularly in light of the fact that the Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund recently took a 2 billon dollar position in Tesla. If shorts are worried that ultra-deep pockets stand behind Tesla regardless of fundamentals they may exit en mass and keep driving up the price. Possibly that was Musk's strategy in the first place.

When you buy Tesla you're buying a dream that may or may not come true in the distant future, but in the meantime it has no more substance than a moonbeam.

Garland Whizzer
So... your assumption is that Musk lied about have funding and committed fraud to cause a short term price boost in the stock, even though as one of the most shorted companies everything he does is under a microscope. And given the billions about to be lost by the shorters, he's likely to be sued and will need to have proof of the funding to avoid the lawsuit. And he did all of this just after the earnings report that was well received by investors, so no need to cause a short term price boost.

:confused

sschullo
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by sschullo » Tue Aug 07, 2018 8:18 pm

I keep this simple. I own and enjoy the car, not the individual stock. I own the stock in my index fund.
Public School K-12 Educators: "Ask NOT what your annuity sales person can do for you, ask what you can do to be a Do-It-Yourselfer (DIY)."

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by iamlucky13 » Tue Aug 07, 2018 8:53 pm

garlandwhizzer wrote:
Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:34 pm
One reason, I suspect, for the Musk announcement was to produce a short squeeze and drive up Tesla's sagging price. Tesla is the most heavily shorted stock in history, I believe, and currently hedge funds have huge short positions. By announcing a potential $420/share private purchase with financing lined up (he didn't say how), he repositioned the Tesla pricing argument.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that a very good way to end up in jail?

I suspect if Musk made such a significant material statement, there really are serious discussions taking place about going private.

Also, having followed him closely for a while primarily due to interest in SpaceX, I strongly suspect he really does want the greater leeway that going private would allow to run Tesla the way he wants.

But whether or not it actually happens I'm much more skeptical of. "Funding secured" seems like a pretty specific claim, but I'm struggling to believe whatever discussions have take place have proceeded to written offers in hand contingent only on Tesla's acceptance.

Inframan4712
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Inframan4712 » Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:20 am

carguyny wrote:
Tue Aug 07, 2018 7:04 pm
jdb wrote:
Tue Aug 07, 2018 6:41 pm
This means TSLA in play. I suspect that some serious number crunching now being done by likes of Apple, Google, and legacy auto makers like Daimler Benz and Volkswagen. Not to mention unknown Chinese or Japanese companies. We live in interesting times.
There's nothing of value in Tesla for most of the companies, save perhaps Apple. Waymo has real self driving cars and is working on much more advanced cars. Daimler has invested billions in battery factories already and has a short-haul delivery truck from years ago. VW has a number of EVs coming out this year from Audi and Porsche, to join the VW eGolf.
Tesla has the supercharger network which makes their cars legitimate cross country vehicles. Tesla is actually committed to delivering and innovating electric vehicles. The other manufacturers will have to be dragged kicking and screaming into electric vehicles, no matter how many models they promise, concept artwork they release, etc.

As an aside, I don’t see Musk giving up control to a big name like Google, Facebook, etc. If he takes the company private it will not be with another tech company.

financeperchance
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by financeperchance » Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:11 pm

Tanelorn wrote:
Tue Aug 07, 2018 4:13 pm
Would you give Musk $100B to buy out everyone? I don’t think anyone else will either. If he keeps the stock price high enough, he may be able to pay off the nearly $1B in convertible debt due later this year in stock rather than cash, which would mean at least they don’t run out of cash until next year. I’m not sure I know exactly what the SEC thinks counts as “market manipulation” these days, but charitably I think he’s skating pretty close to the line.
Well it's going to be a lot less than $100 billion. Elon owns 20%, and he's not selling a share. There are a few ~5% holders like Ron Baron who aren't selling.

And then, based on what I've seen at Tesla forums, a significant percentage of Tesla's retail shareholders are going to take the long-term private-company shares rather than the $420 in cash.

So the actual amount that will be needed to be raised for the go-private transaction may not be that much at all.

As for the convertible debtholders, they're big boys and girls and should have done their homework and factored the risk of this go-private thing when they were buying at 85-90 cents on the dollar. So I wouldn't base my short case on the SEC stepping in their behalf; the SEC's main concern is for retail shareholders.

Nate79
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Nate79 » Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:18 pm

CNN money article this morning picking up the story about Musk's tweet saying Tesla would be better going private:

https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/07/news/c ... index.html

Tanelorn
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Tanelorn » Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:39 pm

financeperchance wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:11 pm
Tanelorn wrote:
Tue Aug 07, 2018 4:13 pm
Would you give Musk $100B to buy out everyone? I don’t think anyone else will either. If he keeps the stock price high enough, he may be able to pay off the nearly $1B in convertible debt due later this year in stock rather than cash, which would mean at least they don’t run out of cash until next year. I’m not sure I know exactly what the SEC thinks counts as “market manipulation” these days, but charitably I think he’s skating pretty close to the line.
Well it's going to be a lot less than $100 billion. Elon owns 20%, and he's not selling a share. There are a few ~5% holders like Ron Baron who aren't selling.

And then, based on what I've seen at Tesla forums, a significant percentage of Tesla's retail shareholders are going to take the long-term private-company shares rather than the $420 in cash.

So the actual amount that will be needed to be raised for the go-private transaction may not be that much at all.

As for the convertible debtholders, they're big boys and girls and should have done their homework and factored the risk of this go-private thing when they were buying at 85-90 cents on the dollar. So I wouldn't base my short case on the SEC stepping in their behalf; the SEC's main concern is for retail shareholders.
I seriously doubt the SEC will let thousands of retail shareholders become shareholders in a private company. Typically these are limited, with good reason and per securities regulations, to accredited investors only. Many mutual and index funds will not have a mandate to hold private stock and will sell as well. Plus there are tons of stock options not in the current share count that would need to be bought out. It will be expensive.

You misunderstand about the converts holders. The case would be that Musk manipulated the stock to transfer wealth from the short sellers to the convertible bond holders and himself; the converts holders are most likely hedged, and in any event, are better off with a higher stock price, as is the company who can satisfy some of their near term debt with stock rather than limited cash.

TomCat96
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by TomCat96 » Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:49 pm

Count me among those who think Musk did this to go after the short positions.

There's a war between the shorts and Musk in a manner that I never seen with any other company. I'm not at all surprised that TSLA is the most shorted company in history. There are plenty of legitimate reasons to think they won't make it.

But it's personal at this point for many. I have no idea why so many want to see TSLA fail. It's just another company.
That being said, going private will probably allow Tesla to focus a little better.

financeperchance
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by financeperchance » Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:54 pm

Tanelorn wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:39 pm
You misunderstand about the converts holders. The case would be that Musk manipulated the stock to transfer wealth from the short sellers to the convertible bond holders and himself; the converts holders are most likely hedged, and in any event, are better off with a higher stock price, as is the company who can satisfy some of their near term debt with stock rather than limited cash.
Ah, interesting, I see now what you are saying.

Well, we'll see what happens. Never a dull moment with Tesla. :)

garlandwhizzer
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by garlandwhizzer » Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:30 pm

matjen wrote:
I'm trying to figure out why the price didn't go right up to $420 or at least significantly closer. The only conclusion is that the market is not convinced that much of what Musk says/tweets is truthful.
Some short sellers panicked yesterday but I agree that the market as a whole is skeptical that privatizing Tesla will occur. I believe the tweet was intended to raise the stock price and was less than fully truthful. It carefully avoids details. Whether to not it can be proved to be misleading to investors and therefore potentially illegal is not clear to me. Lots of shorts are still holding their positions. I suspect that Musk enjoys the thrill of conflict and challenge, of stirring a roiling pot that is already boiling. Not the typical CEO and in my mind at least, not where I wish to invest my hard earned dollars.

Garland Whizzer

Tanelorn
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Tanelorn » Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:39 pm

Two good articles on the recent TSLA situation, legal consequences, etc.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles ... with-tesla
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/08/busi ... a-sec.html

Perhaps also of note, Softbank denied any interest and called TSLA stock overvalued.

Whakamole
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Whakamole » Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:41 pm

Shouldn't a CEO be more focused on building a viable long-term business than going after short sellers?

aqan
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by aqan » Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:47 pm

Whakamole wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:41 pm
Shouldn't a CEO be more focused on building a viable long-term business than going after short sellers?
I was wondering the same. Maybe too many shorts sacre the investors away?

harikaried
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by harikaried » Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:17 pm

Whakamole wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:41 pm
Shouldn't a CEO be more focused on building a viable long-term business than going after short sellers?
Short sellers distract the business from its long-term mission with attacks that try to push the stock price down. This could be misinformation or fake news to confuse potential buyers or sabotage within the company making employees less focused. I would think it is the job of the CEO to make these distractions go away as it affects all the employees' productiveness.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Whakamole » Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:32 pm

harikaried wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:17 pm
Whakamole wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:41 pm
Shouldn't a CEO be more focused on building a viable long-term business than going after short sellers?
Short sellers distract the business from its long-term mission with attacks that try to push the stock price down. This could be misinformation or fake news to confuse potential buyers or sabotage within the company making employees less focused. I would think it is the job of the CEO to make these distractions go away as it affects all the employees' productiveness.
It's only distracting if the CEO spends their time talking about them and spending their energy dealing with them. All public companies have short sellers. I've worked for mostly public companies and don't remember any of the CEOs I've worked for grumbling about them.

Besides, why would a long term shareholder be concerned about the price of the stock going down? That means it's on sale.

harikaried
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by harikaried » Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:08 pm

Whakamole wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:32 pm
It's only distracting if the CEO spends their time talking about them and spending their energy dealing with them. All public companies have short sellers. I've worked for mostly public companies and don't remember any of the CEOs I've worked for grumbling about them.
Could it be that the CEO is spending time on it because it has been affecting employees? How many fake news articles are written every month talking about Tesla failing or doing something wrong that then get shared with employees that then need to be handled by management. Even one article that gets one employee to be less focused and unnecessarily questioning the employer is lost productivity and a slight win for short sellers. Given that Tesla has tens of thousands of employees, it would seem likely that there's more than just a few people distracted by the constant attacks on Tesla. And with billions of dollars on the line for short sellers, there's a lot of incentive to do what they've been doing.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by triceratop » Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:31 pm

Whakamole wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:32 pm
harikaried wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:17 pm
Whakamole wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:41 pm
Shouldn't a CEO be more focused on building a viable long-term business than going after short sellers?
Short sellers distract the business from its long-term mission with attacks that try to push the stock price down. This could be misinformation or fake news to confuse potential buyers or sabotage within the company making employees less focused. I would think it is the job of the CEO to make these distractions go away as it affects all the employees' productiveness.
It's only distracting if the CEO spends their time talking about them and spending their energy dealing with them. All public companies have short sellers. I've worked for mostly public companies and don't remember any of the CEOs I've worked for grumbling about them.

Besides, why would a long term shareholder be concerned about the price of the stock going down? That means it's on sale.
Not taking a position either way, but there is path-dependency here: Tesla's long-term success may depend on its ability to tap debt and equity markets for additional capital; if the stock price goes down then obviously its long-term shareholders get diluted more.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."

alloykat
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TSLA privatization

Post by alloykat » Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:31 pm

[merged into here --moderator triceratop]

Hi

My husband and I own some TSLA stock and Elon Musk is thinking of taking the company private. From the initial release of information, a shareholder can either be bought out or stay on as a private investor. If you one decides to stay on as a private investor, how are you able to buy or sell your stock OR how are you able to check the value of your stock? Basically, is there any article that delineates the finer points of this? Thanks.

cantos
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Re: TSLA privatization

Post by cantos » Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:34 pm

He's not going private. He was stabbing at the short sellers with his tweet. The $420 price is a joke; 420 is of course short for marijuana smoking time. He has hubris and can't take the criticism. We are watching a man breakdown mentally.

jebmke
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Re: TSLA privatization

Post by jebmke » Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:36 pm

cantos wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:34 pm
He's not going private. He was stabbing at the short sellers with his tweet. The $420 price is a joke; 420 is of course short for marijuana smoking time. He has hubris and can't take the criticism. We are watching a man breakdown mentally.
Bloomberg had two talking heads on the radio this afternoon. One was a shorter and the other said that TSLA is a value stock. Worth $2,000 today ($4,000 in 5 years). :P

Is his tweet even legal?
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.

pascal
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Re: TSLA privatization

Post by pascal » Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:37 pm

Come on! You really believed a tweet he sent out?!
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triceratop
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Re: TSLA privatization

Post by triceratop » Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:46 pm

Here is the most informed analysis of the recent TSLA drama: Elon Musk Has Some Fun With Tesla by Matt Levine in Bloomberg
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."

Nate79
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Nate79 » Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:01 pm

harikaried wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:08 pm
Whakamole wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:32 pm
It's only distracting if the CEO spends their time talking about them and spending their energy dealing with them. All public companies have short sellers. I've worked for mostly public companies and don't remember any of the CEOs I've worked for grumbling about them.
Could it be that the CEO is spending time on it because it has been affecting employees? How many fake news articles are written every month talking about Tesla failing or doing something wrong that then get shared with employees that then need to be handled by management. Even one article that gets one employee to be less focused and unnecessarily questioning the employer is lost productivity and a slight win for short sellers. Given that Tesla has tens of thousands of employees, it would seem likely that there's more than just a few people distracted by the constant attacks on Tesla. And with billions of dollars on the line for short sellers, there's a lot of incentive to do what they've been doing.
What is this fake news you keep mentioning about Tesla? Certainly there is enough negative news about Musk tweets, financials, quality, etc without having to ever have fake news. I think Musk spreads more fake news with his targets that are never hit.

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Re: TSLA privatization

Post by harikaried » Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:05 pm

alloykat wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:31 pm
If you one decides to stay on as a private investor, how are you able to buy or sell your stock OR how are you able to check the value of your stock?
Here's an email that Elon sent to SpaceX employees about (not) going public:

https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comment ... ng_taking/

It mentions "biannual liquidity events" where it sounds like an independent valuation of the company happens and stockholders can sell shares back to the company.
Last edited by harikaried on Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Whakamole
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Whakamole » Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:10 pm

Nate79 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:01 pm
harikaried wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:08 pm
Whakamole wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:32 pm
It's only distracting if the CEO spends their time talking about them and spending their energy dealing with them. All public companies have short sellers. I've worked for mostly public companies and don't remember any of the CEOs I've worked for grumbling about them.
Could it be that the CEO is spending time on it because it has been affecting employees? How many fake news articles are written every month talking about Tesla failing or doing something wrong that then get shared with employees that then need to be handled by management. Even one article that gets one employee to be less focused and unnecessarily questioning the employer is lost productivity and a slight win for short sellers. Given that Tesla has tens of thousands of employees, it would seem likely that there's more than just a few people distracted by the constant attacks on Tesla. And with billions of dollars on the line for short sellers, there's a lot of incentive to do what they've been doing.
What is this fake news you keep mentioning about Tesla? Certainly there is enough negative news about Musk tweets, financials, quality, etc without having to ever have fake news. I think Musk spreads more fake news with his targets that are never hit.
Of course he can't hit targets, it's all the fault of the short sellers who are distracting employees with fake news about Tesla, cat photos, and discussion about Fidelity zero-ER funds.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by triceratop » Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:14 pm

I merged alloykat's topic titled "TSLA privatization" into this one, to keep TSLA discussion contained.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by harikaried » Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:25 pm

Nate79 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:01 pm
What is this fake news you keep mentioning about Tesla?
Sure, there's a difference between negative articles and fake news, and there's all sorts of combinations and levels of deception. Hopefully you can agree that this is fake news:

"Musk announces departure from Tesla"
https://twitter.com/natashaloder/status ... 24/photo/1

Someone spent money to put together that article / page and paid for that ad to be seen. Someone with just extra money on their hands? I suppose maybe…

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Nate79 » Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:43 pm

According to this recent CNN Money article the idea of going private is more serious than just a tweet.
https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/08/invest ... index.html
Tesla's board said in a statement Wednesday that Musk talked to board members last week about why going private would make sense and how a deal could be funded. The board said it is now taking the "appropriate next steps" to evaluate the proposal.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by iamlucky13 » Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:49 pm

Inframan4712 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:20 am
The other manufacturers will have to be dragged kicking and screaming into electric vehicles, no matter how many models they promise, concept artwork they release, etc.
Mitsubishi, Nissan, Ford, and Volvo all had regular production EV's on the market before Tesla (not counting the original roadster, which they used more as a marketable prototype than a production vehicle). BMW, Chevy, Honda, and Toyota all had models on the market the same year or the year after the Model S.

InsideEV's tallies 150,000 electric vehicles sold in the US alone so far this year, and nearly 2/3 of them were made by companies other than Tesla. The forecast is over 2 million EVs globally next year, and Tesla will build less than 1/4 of those.

That other companies haven't individually been as successful in terms of unit-sales and aren't as glamorous as Tesla doesn't qualify as "kicking and screaming." It's still tough to make money in this market. Tesla identified a very good niche, but it also doesn't work to try to enter the market simply by imitating Tesla

The older companies are obviously not strictly focused on electric vehicles like Tesla, but all of them are paying close attention the market, and many of them are already involved in it, even though others don't want to fight for the low margins the current conditions seem to offer. They want to make money, so as they determine it is possible to make cost-competitive electric vehicles, they will.

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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by roflwaffle » Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:16 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:49 pm
Inframan4712 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:20 am
The other manufacturers will have to be dragged kicking and screaming into electric vehicles, no matter how many models they promise, concept artwork they release, etc.
Mitsubishi, Nissan, Ford, and Volvo all had regular production EV's on the market before Tesla (not counting the original roadster, which they used more as a marketable prototype than a production vehicle). BMW, Chevy, Honda, and Toyota all had models on the market the same year or the year after the Model S.

InsideEV's tallies 150,000 electric vehicles sold in the US alone so far this year, and nearly 2/3 of them were made by companies other than Tesla. The forecast is over 2 million EVs globally next year, and Tesla will build less than 1/4 of those.

That other companies haven't individually been as successful in terms of unit-sales and aren't as glamorous as Tesla doesn't qualify as "kicking and screaming." It's still tough to make money in this market. Tesla identified a very good niche, but it also doesn't work to try to enter the market simply by imitating Tesla

The older companies are obviously not strictly focused on electric vehicles like Tesla, but all of them are paying close attention the market, and many of them are already involved in it, even though others don't want to fight for the low margins the current conditions seem to offer. They want to make money, so as they determine it is possible to make cost-competitive electric vehicles, they will.
GM was building EVs a decade before Tesla did. Part of the problem is that they and all of those manufacturers have lobbied against regulations to encourage EV production and aren't interested in building EVs outside of what's required to minimize CAFE/CARB penalties. If I saw any existing manufacturers getting serious about EV production, I'd purchase an EV from them, but so far they've either mostly ignored EVs, or phoned in what they are building.

Tesla only recently (July) sold more EVs in the US than everyone else combined, but they've had the lead in battery production for much longer than that. There are other manufacturers who are pretty close to them in a specific aspect on EV production/design, but no manufacturer I know of is close to them across the board.

https://insideevs.com/tesla-gigafactory ... -combined/

roflwaffle
Posts: 439
Joined: Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:08 pm

Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by roflwaffle » Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:26 pm

matjen wrote:
Sat Aug 04, 2018 12:17 pm
I don't see a BMW M3 listed there and Elon Musk didn't mention those cars did he but he specifically mentioned and compared to a BMW M3? Nor was our conversation about those cars. Goal post moving. I mean unless you are seriously arguing that a something breaking at some time on a 30 year old BMW is the same as the built in design constraints of a brand new Tesla which will happen every single time and can not be fixed, modified, etc. ICE cars that are tracked have things like add on oil coolers, etc.
I replied to your post about BMWs. If you consider discussing them goal post moving, I wouldn't mention them in the first place. I also wouldn't focus so much on a P3D dropping a few seconds off a lap when many production cars do far worse. ;) :beer

niceguy7376
Posts: 2123
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Location: Metro ATL

Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by niceguy7376 » Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:34 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:49 pm
InsideEV's tallies 150,000 electric vehicles sold in the US alone so far this year, and nearly 2/3 of them were made by companies other than Tesla.
Really? Could you provide a breakdown ?
So you are saying that tesla ONLY sold 50K this year while all other manufacturers sold 100K vehicles?

Are you considering hybrid into electric category?

ThriftyPhD
Posts: 702
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by ThriftyPhD » Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:48 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:49 pm
Inframan4712 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:20 am
The other manufacturers will have to be dragged kicking and screaming into electric vehicles, no matter how many models they promise, concept artwork they release, etc.
Mitsubishi, Nissan, Ford, and Volvo all had regular production EV's on the market before Tesla (not counting the original roadster, which they used more as a marketable prototype than a production vehicle). BMW, Chevy, Honda, and Toyota all had models on the market the same year or the year after the Model S.

InsideEV's tallies 150,000 electric vehicles sold in the US alone so far this year, and nearly 2/3 of them were made by companies other than Tesla. The forecast is over 2 million EVs globally next year, and Tesla will build less than 1/4 of those.

That other companies haven't individually been as successful in terms of unit-sales and aren't as glamorous as Tesla doesn't qualify as "kicking and screaming." It's still tough to make money in this market. Tesla identified a very good niche, but it also doesn't work to try to enter the market simply by imitating Tesla

The older companies are obviously not strictly focused on electric vehicles like Tesla, but all of them are paying close attention the market, and many of them are already involved in it, even though others don't want to fight for the low margins the current conditions seem to offer. They want to make money, so as they determine it is possible to make cost-competitive electric vehicles, they will.
Are you including plug in hybrids when you say other manufacturers had models on the market?

Looking at the chart on the bottom of this page, it's clear that if you subset down to BEV (no ICE), Tesla is dominating. Sales of the Bolt are going down while the Model 3 climbs rapidly. Tesla is outselling GM over 10 to 1.

I don't want any pistons, any oil, any gas near my next vehicle. The only true BEV competitor on the market is the Bolt, and GM does not seem interested in it at all.

Anyone can throw a tiny battery into a typical ICE vehicle and get 12 miles range before the traditional engine takes over. Which manufacturers are investing in producing BEV vehicles with 200+ mile range?

That's where they'll have to be dragged kicking and screaming. The old guard does not want to give up their ICE.

[Edit] Found an updated version of the chart above.

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

14000 Model 3 in July was over half of all Total EV sales, including hybrids. Dominating.

iamlucky13
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Location: Western Washington

Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by iamlucky13 » Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:30 pm

roflwaffle wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:16 pm
iamlucky13 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:49 pm
Inframan4712 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:20 am
The other manufacturers will have to be dragged kicking and screaming into electric vehicles, no matter how many models they promise, concept artwork they release, etc.
Mitsubishi, Nissan, Ford, and Volvo all had regular production EV's on the market before Tesla (not counting the original roadster, which they used more as a marketable prototype than a production vehicle). BMW, Chevy, Honda, and Toyota all had models on the market the same year or the year after the Model S.

InsideEV's tallies 150,000 electric vehicles sold in the US alone so far this year, and nearly 2/3 of them were made by companies other than Tesla. The forecast is over 2 million EVs globally next year, and Tesla will build less than 1/4 of those.

That other companies haven't individually been as successful in terms of unit-sales and aren't as glamorous as Tesla doesn't qualify as "kicking and screaming." It's still tough to make money in this market. Tesla identified a very good niche, but it also doesn't work to try to enter the market simply by imitating Tesla

The older companies are obviously not strictly focused on electric vehicles like Tesla, but all of them are paying close attention the market, and many of them are already involved in it, even though others don't want to fight for the low margins the current conditions seem to offer. They want to make money, so as they determine it is possible to make cost-competitive electric vehicles, they will.
GM was building EVs a decade before Tesla did. Part of the problem is that they and all of those manufacturers have lobbied against regulations to encourage EV production and aren't interested in building EVs outside of what's required to minimize CAFE/CARB penalties. If I saw any existing manufacturers getting serious about EV production, I'd purchase an EV from them, but so far they've either mostly ignored EVs, or phoned in what they are building.

Tesla only recently (July) sold more EVs in the US than everyone else combined, but they've had the lead in battery production for much longer than that. There are other manufacturers who are pretty close to them in a specific aspect on EV production/design, but no manufacturer I know of is close to them across the board.

https://insideevs.com/tesla-gigafactory ... -combined/
The GM EV1 was similar to the original Tesla Roadster. It was leased (not sold) in very limited quantities sort of as a marketable prototype.

I'm sticking with the belief that car companies are greedy. You won't convince me otherwise. If the market will pay the price of building them with similar profit margins to their current product, they will build them.

That they are also resistant to legislation that harms the overwhelming majority of their current business more than it helps their electric ventures doesn't qualify as kicking and screaming.

On the other hand, with regards to ineffectual and wildly uneconomical regulatory moves by a single state is a separate matter, sure go ahead and call that kicking and screaming, but it's not directed EV's themselves.
ThriftyPhD wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:48 pm
Are you including plug in hybrids when you say other manufacturers had models on the market?
For my mention of market timeline, no. Mitsubishi i-MiEV, Nissan Leaf, Volvo C30 electric (probably should not have counted - limited production), and Focus Electric all came on the market in 2010 and 2011.

For current year sales numbers, yes, it includes PHEV.
niceguy7376 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:34 pm
iamlucky13 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:49 pm
InsideEV's tallies 150,000 electric vehicles sold in the US alone so far this year, and nearly 2/3 of them were made by companies other than Tesla.
Really? Could you provide a breakdown ?
So you are saying that tesla ONLY sold 50K this year while all other manufacturers sold 100K vehicles?

Are you considering hybrid into electric category?
See the link at the bottom of ThriftyPHD's post. That's the same source I used. Tesla sold 61,487. The rest sold 90,916. I guess if you want to be precise, that's 60/40, not 67/33.

Standard hybrids are not included. Plug-in hybrids are.

carguyny
Posts: 316
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by carguyny » Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:08 pm

ThriftyPhD wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:48 pm
iamlucky13 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:49 pm
Inframan4712 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:20 am
The other manufacturers will have to be dragged kicking and screaming into electric vehicles, no matter how many models they promise, concept artwork they release, etc.
Mitsubishi, Nissan, Ford, and Volvo all had regular production EV's on the market before Tesla (not counting the original roadster, which they used more as a marketable prototype than a production vehicle). BMW, Chevy, Honda, and Toyota all had models on the market the same year or the year after the Model S.

InsideEV's tallies 150,000 electric vehicles sold in the US alone so far this year, and nearly 2/3 of them were made by companies other than Tesla. The forecast is over 2 million EVs globally next year, and Tesla will build less than 1/4 of those.

That other companies haven't individually been as successful in terms of unit-sales and aren't as glamorous as Tesla doesn't qualify as "kicking and screaming." It's still tough to make money in this market. Tesla identified a very good niche, but it also doesn't work to try to enter the market simply by imitating Tesla

The older companies are obviously not strictly focused on electric vehicles like Tesla, but all of them are paying close attention the market, and many of them are already involved in it, even though others don't want to fight for the low margins the current conditions seem to offer. They want to make money, so as they determine it is possible to make cost-competitive electric vehicles, they will.
Are you including plug in hybrids when you say other manufacturers had models on the market?

Looking at the chart on the bottom of this page, it's clear that if you subset down to BEV (no ICE), Tesla is dominating. Sales of the Bolt are going down while the Model 3 climbs rapidly. Tesla is outselling GM over 10 to 1.

I don't want any pistons, any oil, any gas near my next vehicle. The only true BEV competitor on the market is the Bolt, and GM does not seem interested in it at all.

Anyone can throw a tiny battery into a typical ICE vehicle and get 12 miles range before the traditional engine takes over. Which manufacturers are investing in producing BEV vehicles with 200+ mile range?

That's where they'll have to be dragged kicking and screaming. The old guard does not want to give up their ICE.

[Edit] Found an updated version of the chart above.

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

14000 Model 3 in July was over half of all Total EV sales, including hybrids. Dominating.
Jaguar i-Pace, Audi e-Tron and Porsche Taycan are all very interesting products. Jaguar i-Pace is starting to be delivered - Waymo also has a fully self driving version of it. I have a pre-order in on the Taycan and I'll get an early delivery late next year. Currently have a BMW i3 and Cayenne Hybrid PHEV - tried the Tesla Model S, but just didn't love it and thought the build quality was only OK.

emoore
Posts: 472
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by emoore » Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:11 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:30 pm
roflwaffle wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:16 pm
iamlucky13 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:49 pm
Inframan4712 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:20 am
The other manufacturers will have to be dragged kicking and screaming into electric vehicles, no matter how many models they promise, concept artwork they release, etc.
Mitsubishi, Nissan, Ford, and Volvo all had regular production EV's on the market before Tesla (not counting the original roadster, which they used more as a marketable prototype than a production vehicle). BMW, Chevy, Honda, and Toyota all had models on the market the same year or the year after the Model S.

InsideEV's tallies 150,000 electric vehicles sold in the US alone so far this year, and nearly 2/3 of them were made by companies other than Tesla. The forecast is over 2 million EVs globally next year, and Tesla will build less than 1/4 of those.

That other companies haven't individually been as successful in terms of unit-sales and aren't as glamorous as Tesla doesn't qualify as "kicking and screaming." It's still tough to make money in this market. Tesla identified a very good niche, but it also doesn't work to try to enter the market simply by imitating Tesla

The older companies are obviously not strictly focused on electric vehicles like Tesla, but all of them are paying close attention the market, and many of them are already involved in it, even though others don't want to fight for the low margins the current conditions seem to offer. They want to make money, so as they determine it is possible to make cost-competitive electric vehicles, they will.
GM was building EVs a decade before Tesla did. Part of the problem is that they and all of those manufacturers have lobbied against regulations to encourage EV production and aren't interested in building EVs outside of what's required to minimize CAFE/CARB penalties. If I saw any existing manufacturers getting serious about EV production, I'd purchase an EV from them, but so far they've either mostly ignored EVs, or phoned in what they are building.

Tesla only recently (July) sold more EVs in the US than everyone else combined, but they've had the lead in battery production for much longer than that. There are other manufacturers who are pretty close to them in a specific aspect on EV production/design, but no manufacturer I know of is close to them across the board.

https://insideevs.com/tesla-gigafactory ... -combined/
The GM EV1 was similar to the original Tesla Roadster. It was leased (not sold) in very limited quantities sort of as a marketable prototype.

I'm sticking with the belief that car companies are greedy. You won't convince me otherwise. If the market will pay the price of building them with similar profit margins to their current product, they will build them.

That they are also resistant to legislation that harms the overwhelming majority of their current business more than it helps their electric ventures doesn't qualify as kicking and screaming.

On the other hand, with regards to ineffectual and wildly uneconomical regulatory moves by a single state is a separate matter, sure go ahead and call that kicking and screaming, but it's not directed EV's themselves.
ThriftyPhD wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:48 pm
Are you including plug in hybrids when you say other manufacturers had models on the market?
For my mention of market timeline, no. Mitsubishi i-MiEV, Nissan Leaf, Volvo C30 electric (probably should not have counted - limited production), and Focus Electric all came on the market in 2010 and 2011.

For current year sales numbers, yes, it includes PHEV.
niceguy7376 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:34 pm
iamlucky13 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:49 pm
InsideEV's tallies 150,000 electric vehicles sold in the US alone so far this year, and nearly 2/3 of them were made by companies other than Tesla.
Really? Could you provide a breakdown ?
So you are saying that tesla ONLY sold 50K this year while all other manufacturers sold 100K vehicles?

Are you considering hybrid into electric category?
See the link at the bottom of ThriftyPHD's post. That's the same source I used. Tesla sold 61,487. The rest sold 90,916. I guess if you want to be precise, that's 60/40, not 67/33.

Standard hybrids are not included. Plug-in hybrids are.
Not apples to apples comparison. Plug-in hybrids don't count as EVs. I'd like for more auto companies to produce more EVs because I think we need to head that direction sooner rather than later. But the reality is the most auto makers are very hesitant or resistant to going to EVs because they already have a healthy profit margin in ICE cars. I think there will be quite a few surprises in the auto industry in the next 10 years. Might even be some very long lived companies filing for bankruptcy.

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matjen
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by matjen » Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:20 pm

Wall Street Salivates After Elon Musk Floats Taking Tesla Private
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/08/busi ... -musk.html

Translation: No one in this field knows anything about the financing for this alleged deal and the only way to pull it off is the route that penny stocks take.
Some senior executives at top Wall Street banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, did not hear about Mr. Musk’s idea until his tweet sent Tesla shares soaring shortly after noon on Tuesday, according to people close to the banks. Some bankers grumbled on Wednesday that they had not even been able to get Tesla executives to return their phone calls, much less explain the company’s plans.

Some of Tesla’s big institutional investors — including Fidelity and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund — also were blindsided by Mr. Musk’s comments, according to people close to those companies.
Why in the heck would institutional investors want to be dragged into illiquid, opaque and unaccountable markets? This makes no sense.
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.

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TimeRunner
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by TimeRunner » Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:50 pm

carguyny wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:08 pm
Jaguar i-Pace, Audi e-Tron and Porsche Taycan are all very interesting products. Jaguar i-Pace is starting to be delivered - Waymo also has a fully self driving version of it. I have a pre-order in on the Taycan and I'll get an early delivery late next year. Currently have a BMW i3 and Cayenne Hybrid PHEV - tried the Tesla Model S, but just didn't love it and thought the build quality was only OK.
The Jag, Porsche,and Audi e-cars are bracing. I've seen quite a few Teslas, X's, S's and 3's, and perhaps they were fresh a few years ago, but they seem frankly boring and declasse' now. But that's California, where describing something as passe' is passe'. :mrgreen:
"...There're just so many summers, and just so many springs." -Don Henley "What'd ya expect in an opera, a happy ending?" -Bugs Bunny

iamlucky13
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Location: Western Washington

Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by iamlucky13 » Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:29 pm

emoore wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:11 pm
iamlucky13 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:30 pm
roflwaffle wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:16 pm
Are you considering hybrid into electric category?
Standard hybrids are not included. Plug-in hybrids are.
Plug-in hybrids don't count as EVs.
You don't count them as EV's

I do count Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles as Electric Vehicles, as does Inside EV's, the publication in question, and I believe many other outlets that deal with the automotive industry or energy efficiency.

Since they provide the same ability to cover the majority of most households' driving needs under electric power, I'm not clear why you would not count them, especially since they also eliminate one of the most commonly cited reasons not for considering pure battery electric vehicles.
But the reality is the most auto makers are very hesitant or resistant to going to EVs because they already have a healthy profit margin in ICE cars. I think there will be quite a few surprises in the auto industry in the next 10 years. Might even be some very long lived companies filing for bankruptcy.
For that to transpire, the margins on EV's first have to become better than on ICE's, which will then lead to the major ICE manufacturers becoming major EV manufacturers. That sounds like a good transition.

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ReformedSpender
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by ReformedSpender » Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:59 am

Ironically, the closing price of TSLA the day of Musk's tweet parade, pushed Tesla's $2.3 billion debt above its conversion price. However, unfortunately for Musk, it has not held over that price.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... ss+News%29

Surely this all just coincidence right?

:beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

dk240t
Posts: 47
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by dk240t » Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:22 am

emoore wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:11 pm
think there will be quite a few surprises in the auto industry in the next 10 years. Might even be some very long lived companies filing for bankruptcy.
I wouldn't consider Tesla a long lived company...

roflwaffle
Posts: 439
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by roflwaffle » Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:23 am

iamlucky13 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:30 pm
roflwaffle wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:16 pm
iamlucky13 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:49 pm
Inframan4712 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:20 am
The other manufacturers will have to be dragged kicking and screaming into electric vehicles, no matter how many models they promise, concept artwork they release, etc.
Mitsubishi, Nissan, Ford, and Volvo all had regular production EV's on the market before Tesla (not counting the original roadster, which they used more as a marketable prototype than a production vehicle). BMW, Chevy, Honda, and Toyota all had models on the market the same year or the year after the Model S.

InsideEV's tallies 150,000 electric vehicles sold in the US alone so far this year, and nearly 2/3 of them were made by companies other than Tesla. The forecast is over 2 million EVs globally next year, and Tesla will build less than 1/4 of those.

That other companies haven't individually been as successful in terms of unit-sales and aren't as glamorous as Tesla doesn't qualify as "kicking and screaming." It's still tough to make money in this market. Tesla identified a very good niche, but it also doesn't work to try to enter the market simply by imitating Tesla

The older companies are obviously not strictly focused on electric vehicles like Tesla, but all of them are paying close attention the market, and many of them are already involved in it, even though others don't want to fight for the low margins the current conditions seem to offer. They want to make money, so as they determine it is possible to make cost-competitive electric vehicles, they will.
GM was building EVs a decade before Tesla did. Part of the problem is that they and all of those manufacturers have lobbied against regulations to encourage EV production and aren't interested in building EVs outside of what's required to minimize CAFE/CARB penalties. If I saw any existing manufacturers getting serious about EV production, I'd purchase an EV from them, but so far they've either mostly ignored EVs, or phoned in what they are building.

Tesla only recently (July) sold more EVs in the US than everyone else combined, but they've had the lead in battery production for much longer than that. There are other manufacturers who are pretty close to them in a specific aspect on EV production/design, but no manufacturer I know of is close to them across the board.

https://insideevs.com/tesla-gigafactory ... -combined/
The GM EV1 was similar to the original Tesla Roadster. It was leased (not sold) in very limited quantities sort of as a marketable prototype.

I'm sticking with the belief that car companies are greedy. You won't convince me otherwise. If the market will pay the price of building them with similar profit margins to their current product, they will build them.

That they are also resistant to legislation that harms the overwhelming majority of their current business more than it helps their electric ventures doesn't qualify as kicking and screaming.

On the other hand, with regards to ineffectual and wildly uneconomical regulatory moves by a single state is a separate matter, sure go ahead and call that kicking and screaming, but it's not directed EV's themselves.
I agree that car companies are greedy, but that doesn't mean EVs aren't viable. Most car companies have to decades of time and billions of dollars invested in ICEs, and being greedy, they would rather drag their feet on EVs and minimize the risks to those investments than aggressively push a product that could undermine their other products. They also have to appease their customers, dealers, who make most of their money off of maintenance.

They'll naturally oppose anything that could reduce their or their customer's profit margins in the same way that other businesses who polluted in the past opposed regulations to clean up that pollution. Safety, health, and pollution regulations are uneconomic for the groups that have to implement them. Why should they pay for something when they can pass the cost on to someone else? Their problem is when those costs become a burden on society and there are regulations imposed such that the groups responsible for them have to mitigate and/or pay for them.

As for this being the moves of a single state, there are 13 section 177 states following CA's emissions regulations that represent about a third of the US population. I support these regulations because they reduce pollution and increase energy independence. :beer

emoore
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by emoore » Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:24 am

dk240t wrote:
Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:22 am
emoore wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:11 pm
think there will be quite a few surprises in the auto industry in the next 10 years. Might even be some very long lived companies filing for bankruptcy.
I wouldn't consider Tesla a long lived company...
Tesla going under wouldn't be a surprise to many so your comment doesn't make any sense.

Valuethinker
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Aug 10, 2018 4:50 am

roflwaffle wrote:
Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:23 am

I agree that car companies are greedy, but that doesn't mean EVs aren't viable. Most car companies have to decades of time and billions of dollars invested in ICEs, and being greedy, they would rather drag their feet on EVs and minimize the risks to those investments than aggressively push a product that could undermine their other products. They also have to appease their customers, dealers, who make most of their money off of maintenance.
The question is surely not if EVs are viable?

They most assuredly are. Tesla among others has proven that. And the need for an EV solution has not gone away - in fact it is getting more urgent. The speed of mass adoption, when it comes, will blind us. I freely admit that is likely to be after 2030 not immediately after 2018.

The US is actually a bad place to develop an EV ecosystem. Distances are very large and petrol (gasoline) prices are low by developed country standards. The average distance travelled per day by commuters and for shopping etc. must be quite high. The environment is extreme, so heating and AC use are de rigeur? That cuts range.

Most other developed countries are much closer to the ideal circumstances. Shorter distances, less use of climate control. Higher gasoline prices. China is becoming an EV leader - they have the air pollution problems to necessitate action.

The issue is more whether Tesla is the one to lead that revolution.

That's a much harder call. I look at the finances of the company, the quality control issues, the record of missed targets, the enthusiasm for tangential deals (Solar City) and prototypes as product announcement (heavy trucks), and think ... overvalued and could be bust.

Enthusiasts look at the demand for the cars and the way it has set a whole new tone for the industry and think the opposite. The BMW i3, say, is just not much of a car compared to a Tesla. Neither is the plug in Prius.

As for this being the moves of a single state, there are 13 section 177 states following CA's emissions regulations that represent about a third of the US population. I support these regulations because they reduce pollution and increase energy independence. :beer
The weird thing is the US is becoming the world's largest oil producer. Again. Thus the energy independence argument is not as strong as it was. It is not, however, dead-- because of course the US could save that consumption and export it instead.

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Fri Aug 10, 2018 5:51 am

If one is using options, and one is bearish on Tesla, isn't the right thing to do to buy Puts? Preferrably Out of The Money Puts?
Surely that’s the case if one is convinced that Tesla is going to $0 shortly.

Valuethinker
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Joined: Fri May 11, 2007 11:07 am

Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:21 am

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 5:51 am
If one is using options, and one is bearish on Tesla, isn't the right thing to do to buy Puts? Preferrably Out of The Money Puts?
Surely that’s the case if one is convinced that Tesla is going to $0 shortly.
Market Timer says he is writing in of the money calls. I am not sure why?

In principle that exposes you to infinite losses? (If you don't already hold the underlying stock?)

bgf
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Re: Invest in Tesla?

Post by bgf » Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:30 am

harikaried wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:17 pm
Whakamole wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:41 pm
Shouldn't a CEO be more focused on building a viable long-term business than going after short sellers?
Short sellers distract the business from its long-term mission with attacks that try to push the stock price down. This could be misinformation or fake news to confuse potential buyers or sabotage within the company making employees less focused. I would think it is the job of the CEO to make these distractions go away as it affects all the employees' productiveness.
this is true primarily when the entire valuation of the company is dependent on expectations and sentiment (building castles in the sky) and not on operations and cash flow. if you have a strong, profitable company with good management and execution, shareholders tend to not care so much about shortsellers...
“TE OCCIDERE POSSUNT SED TE EDERE NON POSSUNT NEFAS EST"

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