MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

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HomerJ
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by HomerJ » Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:30 pm

BeBH65 wrote:
Sat Jun 16, 2018 3:15 pm
jacoavlu wrote:
Sat Jun 16, 2018 2:59 pm
md&pharmacist wrote:
Sat Jun 16, 2018 2:00 pm

Let me know what details. I've posted my holdings..., relative positions and shares, performance statistics...
You have not posted your performance, though many have asked. You’ve posted performance of the funds you hold, which is meaningless.
md&pharmacist,

To be able to review your personal performance we need to know when you bought each holding and at what price.
We're going to do that going forward. There is zero reason to ask him for past information. He can make up whatever he wants for past purchases to make the returns look good.
The J stands for Jay

Chrono Triggered
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by Chrono Triggered » Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:53 pm

A bunch of jabbering in this thread without any recent trades. Can the replies cease until OP actually makes a purchase/sell?

OP, can your next post in this thread be just that? Thanks.

Compound
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by Compound » Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:47 pm

md&pharmacist wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:11 am
BeBH65 wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:52 am
Hello,


To be able to discuss additions to your portfolio we first need to understand what you currently have.
Can you please complete the table below.

- amount = shares - fund
$XXX,XXX = XXX - VFIAX (Vanguard 500 Admiral)
$XXX,XXX = XXX - VQNPX (Vanguard Growth and Income)
$XXX,XXX = XXX - VWNDX (Vanguard Windsor Fund)
$XXX,XXX = XXX - UNPIX (Profunds Ultra International Fund)
$XXX,XXX = XXX - DXQLX (Direxion Nasdaq 100 Bull 2x)
$XXX,XXX = XXX - FBIOX (Fidelity Select Biotechnology)
$XXX,XXX = XXX - FSPHX (Fidelity Select Healthcare)
$XXX,XXX = XXX - FSELX (Fidelity Select Semiconductors)
$XXX,XXX = XXX - OPGIX (Oppenheimer Global Opportunties)
$XXX,XXX = XXX - UGPIX (Profunds Ultra China)
$1,500,000 Cash for Investing
- amount = shares - fund (as of 6/15/2018)
$291,437.17 = 1,129.689 - VFIAX (Vanguard 500 Admiral)
$32,675.52 = 655.214 - VQNPX (Vanguard Growth and Income)
$5,837.29 = 244.034 - VWNDX (Vanguard Windsor Fund)
$89,407.53 = 4896.360 - UNPIX (Profunds Ultra International Fund)
$194,301.02 = 7205.005 - DXQLX (Direxion Nasdaq 100 Bull 2x)
$181,432.03 = 776.213 - FBIOX (Fidelity Select Biotechnology)
$120,679.46 = 482.602 - FSPHX (Fidelity Select Healthcare)
$378,030.21 = 31,216.350 - FSELX (Fidelity Select Semiconductors)
$157,740.55 = 2,138.275 - OPGIX (Oppenheimer Global Opportunties)
$128,877.46 = 5,781.851 - UGPIX (Profunds Ultra China)
$277,270.87 Cash for Investing
Thank you for posting this MD&P. Please keep us updated on trades you make going forward. I’ve been following this thread with interest, but must admit that, like others, I’m skeptical without seeing the data as you make trades. That said, you should be applauded for providing an alternative perspective for these forums. Of course, only the data can prove or disprove your ability to outthink the market.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by Jags4186 » Sun Jun 17, 2018 7:32 am

BeBH65 wrote:
Sat Jun 16, 2018 3:15 pm
jacoavlu wrote:
Sat Jun 16, 2018 2:59 pm
md&pharmacist wrote:
Sat Jun 16, 2018 2:00 pm

Let me know what details. I've posted my holdings..., relative positions and shares, performance statistics...
You have not posted your performance, though many have asked. You’ve posted performance of the funds you hold, which is meaningless.
md&pharmacist,

To be able to review your personal performance we need to know when you bought each holding and at what price.
Does it really matter? Let's review this thread: "wealthy doctor" wants to invest $2 million of his money with goal of producing 30%-40% annual returns--i.e. turning his $2 million into at least $100 million over the next 15 years. "Wealthy doctor" is supposedly able to generate even better returns at running his "business" but nevertheless wants to devote time to this. "Wealthy doctor" tells us he knows how to use the internet, including Morningstar star ratings and Zacks, to pick the right sector funds that will produce these types of gains. "Wealthy doctor" also tells us he isn't very smart. "Wealthy doctor" is unable to provide us with even a rudimentary framework of information for us to track his portfolio.

Have I mischaracterized anything?

Predictions:
1) "Wealthy doctor" will continue to post his "trades" which will all be winners
2) "Wealthy doctor" will continue to profess how he isn't very smart but knows something we all don't know
3) If there is a stock market correction or crash, we will stop hearing from "wealthy doctor", or surprisingly, a few days later "wealthy doctor" reveals he changed out all his leveraged funds for inverse leveraged funds furthering his goals to put early years Warren Buffet to shame.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by md&pharmacist » Sun Jun 17, 2018 8:28 am

Chrono Triggered wrote:
Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:53 pm
A bunch of jabbering in this thread without any recent trades. Can the replies cease until OP actually makes a purchase/sell?

OP, can your next post in this thread be just that? Thanks.
I understand, all of this subjectivity drowns out the objectivity for those genuinely interested (possibly by design).

It's critical for those who are interested to understand my methods so that my picks and timing are supported in advance of making them. It's not going to hurt me that others may not believe the portfolio, or believe the February 8th trade (or any other trade, even real time trades). I continue to benefit regardless. My goal is average annualized returns of 30-40%, it's not going to hurt me if I only get to 20 or 25% annualized over the next few decades. It may give some here bragging rights. I just prefer 20% or 25% or 29% over bragging rights plus market returns. Still aiming for 30%+ long term average returns.

If you've filtered the noise and understood how I optimize returns, you may already know that I prefer to sell under-performers into euphoria and buy after corrections stabilize. I am anxious to make my next trade, but ultimately suppress emotion in any trade. Generally August and September (and February) tend to be the worst months for the markets, so hopefully an opportunity for a good trade will present itself between now and then.

Thanks for your interest.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by EyeYield » Sun Jun 17, 2018 8:59 am

longinvest wrote:
Sat Jun 16, 2018 5:46 pm
I've created a simple spreadsheet to keep track of total portfolio holdings from contributions, withdrawals, buy and sell transactions, distributions, and fees.
I understand that the OP will provide us with timely information in this thread to keep the "Transactions" sheet up to date.
I think I speak for many Bogleheads when I say, “thanks for your work”. This should be an interesting project.
"The stock market is a giant distraction from the business of investing." - Jack Bogle

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by TN_Boy » Sun Jun 17, 2018 10:06 am

md&pharmacist wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 6:31 pm
About 13% of my portfolio is in cash, and most of that was funded in March for the April tax deadline. Now watch what an incredibly big deal the noisemakers make of that. That smokescreen will likewise clear, and you and the other objective observers, I'm sure, won't be misguided.
I'm puzzled, in another post you state your cash position is

$277,270.87 Cash for Investing.

And your portfolio is in tax deferred accounts (according to a third post).

How did you put $277,270.87 into tax deferred accounts in a single year?

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by ThriftyPhD » Sun Jun 17, 2018 10:14 am

md&pharmacist wrote:
Sun Jun 17, 2018 8:28 am
Chrono Triggered wrote:
Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:53 pm
A bunch of jabbering in this thread without any recent trades. Can the replies cease until OP actually makes a purchase/sell?

OP, can your next post in this thread be just that? Thanks.
I understand, all of this subjectivity drowns out the objectivity for those genuinely interested (possibly by design).

It's critical for those who are interested to understand my methods so that my picks and timing are supported in advance of making them. It's not going to hurt me that others may not believe the portfolio, or believe the February 8th trade (or any other trade, even real time trades). I continue to benefit regardless. My goal is average annualized returns of 30-40%, it's not going to hurt me if I only get to 20 or 25% annualized over the next few decades. It may give some here bragging rights. I just prefer 20% or 25% or 29% over bragging rights plus market returns. Still aiming for 30%+ long term average returns.

If you've filtered the noise and understood how I optimize returns, you may already know that I prefer to sell under-performers into euphoria and buy after corrections stabilize. I am anxious to make my next trade, but ultimately suppress emotion in any trade. Generally August and September (and February) tend to be the worst months for the markets, so hopefully an opportunity for a good trade will present itself between now and then.

Thanks for your interest.
I think people will be more interested in the bolded part after you show a few years of consistently beating the market. You would do this by posting your holdings and then updating the thread with each trade, when it happens. If you're consistently outperforming the market, people will be interested. What you've done in the past is irrelevant. Anyone can say they bought AAPL in 1996 or sold 100,000 bitcoin in December 2017. Unless they posted as they did it... it doesn't mean much. Right?

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by goodenyou » Sun Jun 17, 2018 10:35 am

md&pharmacist wrote:
Sun Jun 17, 2018 8:28 am
Chrono Triggered wrote:
Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:53 pm
A bunch of jabbering in this thread without any recent trades. Can the replies cease until OP actually makes a purchase/sell?

OP, can your next post in this thread be just that? Thanks.
I understand, all of this subjectivity drowns out the objectivity for those genuinely interested (possibly by design).

It's critical for those who are interested to understand my methods so that my picks and timing are supported in advance of making them. It's not going to hurt me that others may not believe the portfolio, or believe the February 8th trade (or any other trade, even real time trades). I continue to benefit regardless. My goal is average annualized returns of 30-40%, it's not going to hurt me if I only get to 20 or 25% annualized over the next few decades. It may give some here bragging rights. I just prefer 20% or 25% or 29% over bragging rights plus market returns. Still aiming for 30%+ long term average returns.

If you've filtered the noise and understood how I optimize returns, you may already know that I prefer to sell under-performers into euphoria and buy after corrections stabilize. I am anxious to make my next trade, but ultimately suppress emotion in any trade. Generally August and September (and February) tend to be the worst months for the markets, so hopefully an opportunity for a good trade will present itself between now and then.

Thanks for your interest.
The desire to achieve average annualized returns of 30-40% would elevate you to the greatest investors of all time displacing the likes of Buffet, Lynch and Graham to name a few. To even attempt this will obviously create a stir here and be viewed as heresy because the odds of doing it are infinitesimal. I am glad that you are up for the challenge. Most will revel in your failure as just desserts for your perceived hubris for trying. Like you, some on this board are very highly compensated and sub-UHNW individuals, but most have a belief in a marginal utility of risk. John Bogle spent his entire career and life's work believing (and some say proving) that trying to consistently beat the market is a fool's errand. Best of luck.
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" | "The best years you have left are the ones you have right now"

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y

Post by livesoft » Sun Jun 17, 2018 10:40 am

livesoft wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:35 am
This is going to be a great thread, so thanks for the attempt.
Just dropping by and putting a personal place holder here as a note to myself that nothing has happened yet.

And it looks like the stirred up ants have gone back to their daily grind.
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Sun Jun 17, 2018 11:28 am

goodenyou wrote:
Sun Jun 17, 2018 10:35 am

The desire to achieve average annualized returns of 30-40% would elevate you to the greatest investors of all time
Another pointless "bashing" post. Let's let him post or not post his moves.
This week's fortune cookie: "Your financial life will be secure and beneficial." So I got that going for me, which is nice.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by Pajamas » Sun Jun 17, 2018 11:36 am

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Sun Jun 17, 2018 11:28 am
goodenyou wrote:
Sun Jun 17, 2018 10:35 am

The desire to achieve average annualized returns of 30-40% would elevate you to the greatest investors of all time
Another pointless "bashing" post. Let's let him post or not post his moves.
Doesn't seem like pointless bashing to me. md&pharmacist appears to be unaware of that information. Won't affect him anyway because he's not afraid like everyone else here!

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by goodenyou » Sun Jun 17, 2018 11:43 am

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Sun Jun 17, 2018 11:28 am
goodenyou wrote:
Sun Jun 17, 2018 10:35 am

The desire to achieve average annualized returns of 30-40% would elevate you to the greatest investors of all time
Another pointless "bashing" post. Let's let him post or not post his moves.
Not a “bash”. Wasn’t intended to be. It should have read ability not desire. It would be the truth.
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by HomerJ » Sun Jun 17, 2018 11:50 am

Pajamas wrote:
Sun Jun 17, 2018 11:36 am
Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Sun Jun 17, 2018 11:28 am
goodenyou wrote:
Sun Jun 17, 2018 10:35 am

The desire to achieve average annualized returns of 30-40% would elevate you to the greatest investors of all time
Another pointless "bashing" post. Let's let him post or not post his moves.
Doesn't seem like pointless bashing to me. md&pharmacist appears to be unaware of that information. Won't affect him anyway because he's not afraid like everyone else here!
Maybe it would help him realize we're not mean or jealous when we say we doubt him.

Maybe if he realized that he came onto an investing forum on the Internet, and proclaimed "I am going to be the BEST investor the world has ever seen, and it's going to be EASY by just checking the news and various web-sites.", he might understand the skepticism better.
The J stands for Jay

HAWK23
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by HAWK23 » Sun Jun 17, 2018 11:55 am

MD&P :

I've been following this thread since the beginning and have gone back and forth between whether or not your legitimately wanting to post in hopes of helping or intriguing others with your strategy OR straight up trolling. I even offered my support earlier in this thread by encouraging people to knock it off with their sarcastic and dismissive comments. However, your most recent comments have me a little confused. I'll try to help you out (as others have been trying to do too) by showing you a template of how to achieve what you're trying to do.

I have the tendency to place some sports bets from time to time. There are actually forums just like this for betting. I've come across people who claim to have a great strategy and they create season long threads and post what their bets are throughout the season. I want to show you an example of one as I believe it will help your cause moving forward:

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.ph ... 69fc2971c0

You'll notice this guy, Chevycola, posts all of his bets before games are played and he also posts the amount he bets, who it's on, and the payout if he wins. Here is an example:
March 31st

San Francisco +185 (300/555) Interactive
Miami +192 (300/576) Heritage
Texas +185 (300/555) BetHorizon

ytd
1-0 +300
This was this guy's second bet of the season. He posted at 2:37pm on March 31st (before the games were played) what his bets were. He made 3 bets on this day. The first one was on San Francisco to win. Because the odds were in favor of the other team his payout was at +185 meaning he would earn more if he picked the Giants. He bet $300 to make $555. The following day he made a post saying he had lost the bet and continued tracking his seasonly payouts. He didn't need to post that he lost the bet because anyone with access to the Internet could have gone to look up the outcome of that San Francisco game - but that's something he chooses to follow up with the following day so he can track his year to date win/loss record and money.

Please review his thread and see what he is doing. What people here are asking you to do is to simply post your Buys and Sells in a similar way moving forward. You don't even need to followup with progress yourself as it seems like there are plenty of people here chomping at the bit to do that.

BIG difference here though... this other guy bets almost everyday. You (should) only be buying and selling occasionally based on whatever system you think is best (30% gains goal) using your preferred method.

It's unrealistic to expect you are going to buy/sell weekly, bi-weekly, monthly, or even quarterly! This is where people need to relax and give you the chance to post and document what you do ahead of time (similar to that sports gambler topic thread). This is the ONLY way to document and get support and ultimately have credibility. The difference between the Chevycola guy and you is that he didn't come out guns blazing about how he was going to bet at an astronomical winning percentage. He just simply documented his bets (amount and on who) before the games were played. Occasionally, if asked, he'll post his rationale for the bets he makes. If that guy was really, truly, great at his bets (as some are) people come flocking and hang on every word. I'm not sure if perhaps that's part of your motivation for your thread - but in order to get that effect you need to have your Buys and Sells historically documented in real-time over a consistent period of time. That's where some of the skepticism and anymosity is coming from.

I hope you understand the advice I'm giving you.
Last edited by HAWK23 on Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:20 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by livesoft » Sun Jun 17, 2018 11:58 am

^I would also suggest posting a benchmark return or performance for comparison. After all, if one gets 30%, but an index fund benchmark makes 40%, then that is not impressive.
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by longinvest » Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:04 pm

livesoft wrote:
Sun Jun 17, 2018 11:58 am
^I would also suggest posting a benchmark return or performance for comparison. After all, if one gets 30%, but an index fund benchmark makes 40%, then that is not impressive.
Great idea! What benchmark do you suggest?
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:09 pm

The point of the thread is to answer the challenge about his moves. Not to convince him that he's wrong. We're never going get anywhere if it's a constant litany of "you so stoopid." Eventually the OP will give up and the thread WILL have been a waste.

Any posts besides the technical ones of posting the transactions, analysis, and performance tracking are clutter and useless.
This week's fortune cookie: "Your financial life will be secure and beneficial." So I got that going for me, which is nice.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by Pajamas » Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:19 pm

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:09 pm
Any posts besides the technical ones of posting the transactions, analysis, and performance tracking are clutter and useless.
It took a lot of posts just to get to that point. . . .

HAWK23
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by HAWK23 » Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:21 pm

Pajamas wrote:
Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:19 pm
Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:09 pm
Any posts besides the technical ones of posting the transactions, analysis, and performance tracking are clutter and useless.
It took a lot of posts just to get to that point. . . .
This is exactly what I stated above. Check out that sports betting thread I included. That's all he needs to do.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by TN_Boy » Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:32 pm

longinvest wrote:
Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:04 pm
livesoft wrote:
Sun Jun 17, 2018 11:58 am
^I would also suggest posting a benchmark return or performance for comparison. After all, if one gets 30%, but an index fund benchmark makes 40%, then that is not impressive.
Great idea! What benchmark do you suggest?
What's the OPs stock/bond/cash ratio? (Hint: can't get that info! Okay, couldn't get any info on the past results/portfolio. But, we do have stock/cash ratio for the moment, apparently 13% cash, though I had a question upthread about the cash).

Assuming 87% equity, 13% cash, why I'd suggest the benchmark be 87% total US stock market, 13% ... I don't know, MM? yielding 1%? Not sure what his cash is in. Obviously his risk is higher than 87% US market 13% cash based on the funds he owns, but trying for a more nuanced benchmark seems pointless. We could track standard deviation (monthly maybe to start?) for the portfolios along with returns, just for grins. If he makes a move out of cash, we'd do the same in the benchmark portfolio.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by md&pharmacist » Sun Jun 17, 2018 5:41 pm

EyeYield wrote:
Sun Jun 17, 2018 8:59 am
longinvest wrote:
Sat Jun 16, 2018 5:46 pm
I've created a simple spreadsheet to keep track of total portfolio holdings from contributions, withdrawals, buy and sell transactions, distributions, and fees.
I understand that the OP will provide us with timely information in this thread to keep the "Transactions" sheet up to date.
I think I speak for many Bogleheads when I say, “thanks for your work”. This should be an interesting project.
TY!!!!!!

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by minimalistmarc » Sun Jun 17, 2018 6:14 pm

I’ve seen enough threads like this to know that the original.posters always disappear when it goes badly - which it always does, more often than chance.

Any success would be statistically meaningless and not indicative of any true skill rather than luck.

In summary, I don’t see the point

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by md&pharmacist » Sun Jun 17, 2018 6:21 pm

marcopolo wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 12:10 pm
MD&P,
I really have no problem with your investment strategy. You seem to be happy with it, and with your resources, it does not matter much anyway. I wish you luck in your endeavors.

I don't really understand some of the vitriol aimed your way. I am, however, a bit curious as to what you hope to get out of engaging on this message board.

Many come here to ask questions about investing, personal finance, etc. You don't seem to need, or want, such advice.

Some come here to help others with some of those topics. I am not seeing where you have given any advice to help others achieve better performance like you claim to have done.

Others come here to simply exchange ideas with like minded investors. In another thread asking about what BH concepts people violate, you responded saying "all of them".

What are you hoping to accomplish here? Understanding that better may help keep the conversation more focused and civil.
Post by EyeYield » Sun Jun 17, 2018 9:59 am
"I think I speak for many Bogleheads when I say, “thanks for your work”. This should be an interesting project."

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Earl Lemongrab
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Sun Jun 17, 2018 11:55 pm

minimalistmarc wrote:
Sun Jun 17, 2018 6:14 pm
In summary, I don’t see the point
So why don't you ignore the thread and let those of who would like to see where it goes keep following?
This week's fortune cookie: "Your financial life will be secure and beneficial." So I got that going for me, which is nice.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by Expro » Mon Jun 18, 2018 4:03 am

I'm glad this thread exists but I doubt I will continue to follow it. Like many others, I don't see the point.
Hubris I understand but I have enough of my own, thank-you-very-much.
In fact, tempering my arrogance is the main reason I visit this forum.
Last edited by Expro on Mon Jun 18, 2018 9:13 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by MikeG62 » Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:56 am

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Sun Jun 17, 2018 11:55 pm
minimalistmarc wrote:
Sun Jun 17, 2018 6:14 pm
In summary, I don’t see the point
So why don't you ignore the thread and let those of who would like to see where it goes keep following?
Because there are a lot of young and new investors who come to this site for sensible investing advice. These folks could get the wrong ideas following a thread that is based upon someone's claims which are not and will not ever be substantiated/verified. Even if he claims a buy or sell in the future, there is no way of knowing it ever occurred.

For example, he may claim to purchase something which subsequently goes down in value (and he may in fact bail when he sees the losses piling up). Yet he may just choose not to post the sell and instead lead others to believe he is continuing to hold the investment until at some point in the future the investment recovers at which time he will claim to have sold it and have made a tidy profit.

Because of the lack of ability to verify any of the claims being made by the OP (not to mention the fact that despite being asked repeatedly to post his actual historical annual returns on his entire portfolio including his cash drag the OP refuses to do so - and even if he did there is no way of knowing whether the claimed returns are real or not) and the risk that young/new investors coming to this site for sensible advice and guidance could get led down an investing path almost certain to end badly, it seems this thread should be locked. I am surprised it has been allowed to go on this long.
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by MSO4PRN » Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:38 am

md&pharmacist wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:25 am
MSO4PRN wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:52 am
ortho or derm?
Ha!

FP with employed providers and wife is PharmD.
awesome. wish i could should show this thread to everyone that rips on FP

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by diy60 » Mon Jun 18, 2018 9:11 am

md&pharmacist wrote:
Sun Jun 17, 2018 8:28 am
Generally August and September (and February) tend to be the worst months for the markets, so hopefully an opportunity for a good trade will present itself between now and then.
I don't carry any weight around here but I see no harm in keeping the thread open for awhile. Buried in all of the fluff there are a few assertions made by the OP. For example the above statement.

I downloaded adjusted returns for the S&P index going back about 40 years or so from Yahoo, but my eyes glazed over when I attempted to compare past results to the above statement. Perhaps some of the very smart people here could at least look at the above OP's statement and see if there is any correlation to these months.

If this has already been done in previous threads over the years then I apologize in advance.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by HomerJ » Mon Jun 18, 2018 12:55 pm

Here you go.

http://time.com/money/4885699/august-se ... ck-market/
Indeed, since the end of World War II, the S&P 500 index of blue-chip U.S. stocks has averaged losses in only three months of the year: February, August, and September. And over time, August and September have been the worst two months for equity market returns.
Since 1945, the S&P 500 has lost 0.2% on average in August and 0.7% in September. What’s more, the second-worst ever monthly drop in equities took place in an August — back in 1998, when the S&P sank nearly 15% in just four weeks.
Averaging over all the years. That doesn't predict anything for the following year. 0.2% average loss in August isn't really something one should plan investment moves around, I think.

What's really funny is that they point out that one large 1998 drop of 15% like it proves August is a bad month, but instead that suggests there must have been plenty of UP Augusts to counter-act that one big drop to get the average back to only -0.2%.
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by md&pharmacist » Mon Jun 18, 2018 1:35 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Mon Jun 18, 2018 12:55 pm
Here you go.

http://time.com/money/4885699/august-se ... ck-market/
Indeed, since the end of World War II, the S&P 500 index of blue-chip U.S. stocks has averaged losses in only three months of the year: February, August, and September. And over time, August and September have been the worst two months for equity market returns.
Since 1945, the S&P 500 has lost 0.2% on average in August and 0.7% in September. What’s more, the second-worst ever monthly drop in equities took place in an August — back in 1998, when the S&P sank nearly 15% in just four weeks.
Averaging over all the years. That doesn't predict anything for the following year. 0.2% average loss in August isn't really something one should plan investment moves around, I think.

What's really funny is that they point out that one large 1998 drop of 15% like it proves August is a bad month, but instead that suggests there must have been plenty of UP Augusts to counter-act that one big drop to get the average back to only -0.2%.
I think that one of the difficulties I have with explaining how much logic goes into my decision making can be touched on by this one little statement regarding historically bad months - to me this should already be common knowledge but it may not be. The reason I say I am no smarter but took a lot of time to do my research over the years is that my mind is full of probably thousands of jeopardy like data factoids like this one that, collectively, make my decisions much less random than many might understand. These predictive analytics are like an army of data points triggered before I make a decision, to reinforce that decision. This is actionable information. For example, you noted that August may be a confusing month so this tells me that if does not trend down significantly from the beginning (and provide an opportunity) it may be a risky month to do anything, because it has a higher likelihood of ending the month in poor shape. Or if it's up in the first part of the month and the news feeds are coming in unfavorably, I might sell an under-performer knowing the news feeds are unfavorable and after August comes the next poorly performing month of September.

I have lots of thoughts about the timing and magnitude of the next major correction, interest rates, etc. - but I am treading to avoid my opinions as many don't want them here. So many stay in my arsenal of predictive analytics. Far more important than seeing my actions for those who are interested or just curious, is the complexity of what I considered that resulted in that action. Such actions cannot be correct all of the time, but I am hoping predictive analytics makes them correct enough of the time to far outpace the indexes.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by Pajamas » Mon Jun 18, 2018 1:43 pm

md&pharmacist wrote:
Mon Jun 18, 2018 1:35 pm
I think that one of the difficulties I have with explaining how much logic goes into my decision making can be touched on by this one little statement regarding historically bad months - to me this should already be common knowledge but it may not be. The reason I say I am no smarter but took a lot of time to do my research over the years is that my mind is full of probably thousands of jeopardy like data factoids like this one that, collectively, make my decisions much less random than many might understand. These predictive analytics are like an army of data points triggered before I make a decision, to reinforce that decision. This is actionable information. For example, you noted that August may be a confusing month so this tells me that if does not trend down significantly from the beginning (and provide an opportunity) it may be a risky month to do anything, because it has a higher likelihood of ending the month in poor shape. Or if it's up in the first part of the month and the news feeds are coming in unfavorably, I might sell an under-performer knowing the news feeds are unfavorable and after August comes the next poorly performing month of September.

I have lots of thoughts about the timing and magnitude of the next major correction, interest rates, etc. - but I am treading to avoid my opinions as many don't want them here. So many stay in my arsenal of predictive analytics. Far more important than seeing my actions for those who are interested or just curious, is the complexity of what I considered that resulted in that action. Such actions cannot be correct all of the time, but I am hoping predictive analytics makes them correct enough of the time to far outpace the indexes.
I can't speak for others on this point, but personally I don't care about your complex thought processes or constellations of data factoids or anything else. I would be perfectly satisfied if that remains in a black box.

What I want to see is simply what that black box spits out, to be able to verify the successful investment predictions and decisions and actions that you boast about.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by HomerJ » Mon Jun 18, 2018 2:22 pm

md&pharmacist wrote:
Mon Jun 18, 2018 1:35 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Mon Jun 18, 2018 12:55 pm
Here you go.

http://time.com/money/4885699/august-se ... ck-market/
Indeed, since the end of World War II, the S&P 500 index of blue-chip U.S. stocks has averaged losses in only three months of the year: February, August, and September. And over time, August and September have been the worst two months for equity market returns.
Since 1945, the S&P 500 has lost 0.2% on average in August and 0.7% in September. What’s more, the second-worst ever monthly drop in equities took place in an August — back in 1998, when the S&P sank nearly 15% in just four weeks.
Averaging over all the years. That doesn't predict anything for the following year. 0.2% average loss in August isn't really something one should plan investment moves around, I think.

What's really funny is that they point out that one large 1998 drop of 15% like it proves August is a bad month, but instead that suggests there must have been plenty of UP Augusts to counter-act that one big drop to get the average back to only -0.2%.
I think that one of the difficulties I have with explaining how much logic goes into my decision making can be touched on by this one little statement regarding historically bad months - to me this should already be common knowledge but it may not be. The reason I say I am no smarter but took a lot of time to do my research over the years is that my mind is full of probably thousands of jeopardy like data factoids like this one that, collectively, make my decisions much less random than many might understand. These predictive analytics are like an army of data points triggered before I make a decision, to reinforce that decision. This is actionable information. For example, you noted that August may be a confusing month so this tells me that if does not trend down significantly from the beginning (and provide an opportunity) it may be a risky month to do anything, because it has a higher likelihood of ending the month in poor shape. Or if it's up in the first part of the month and the news feeds are coming in unfavorably, I might sell an under-performer knowing the news feeds are unfavorable and after August comes the next poorly performing month of September.

I have lots of thoughts about the timing and magnitude of the next major correction, interest rates, etc. - but I am treading to avoid my opinions as many don't want them here. So many stay in my arsenal of predictive analytics. Far more important than seeing my actions for those who are interested or just curious, is the complexity of what I considered that resulted in that action. Such actions cannot be correct all of the time, but I am hoping predictive analytics makes them correct enough of the time to far outpace the indexes.
Actually I like this post... It is interesting to see what you're thinking.

I know you won't believe me, but it is NOT actionable information. Once everyone knows about a trend, it stops working. This has been proven again and again. You really should read some of the suggested books in the Bogleheads wiki.

You think we're the mainstream ones who don't get it.

But your thinking above is the mainstream view. MOST people who invest think if they're smart enough, if they research enough, if they study enough, they can beat the market. We're the ones who have looked at the data and realized it's a fools game. The investing world has JUST recently started taking more notice of the passive indexing movement. Before that, almost EVERYONE (including us) were like you.

But Boglehead investing is not the mainstream. You thinking it's easy to time market moves based on news cycles is mainstream thinking. And it's rarely worked in the real world.

This is my last post in this thread to try to dissuade you. You have made it very clear you're not interested in contrary opinions. Like others have said, let's just see the trades in this thread, and we'll see how it goes
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by marcopolo » Mon Jun 18, 2018 2:42 pm

I think we might need a Turing Test...
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by LadyGeek » Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:39 pm

A number of off-topic replies challenging the OP's intent, sincerity to follow-through, or (lack of) information to track performance have been removed. The off-topic posts are continuing.

This thread is locked until the md&pharmacist PMs a moderator (myself, prudent, or triceratop) with information about the latest transaction. We'll reopen the thread at that time.
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I feel like selling my 3 fund [md&pharmacist]

Post by md&pharmacist » Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:01 am

[Split into a new topic from: I feel like selling my 3 fund, see below (next page) --admin LadyGeek]

OP, I have over $1M in savings accounts that I am not willing to put in the markets now for the same reasons you noted. I am rather investing portions of it in my children's education, in my personal business and commercial real estate to maintain diversified investments. I'm researching exotic artwork but have not done this type of investing before.

This is the tail end of a great bull run, and things look good right now, but that can change quickly. For example, I think one of the biggest risks with such a tight labor market can be runaway inflation which hasn't occurred as of yet, so what I have in the markets I am not selling unless things change. I do expect a major correction 30+ percent sometime over the next 12-18 months +/-. It can happen tomorrow, it can happen after 18 months, but I do keep an eye on things closely to exit when it starts.

You are correct, cash available for the next bull run will reward one handsomely. In the meantime, I wait for smaller corrections to stabilize before I buy so I don't miss out either, but buy low. If you still want to take some money off the table, sell into the short term euphoria as I did in early February (sell high). I believe, at a minimum, another smaller correction around 10% should occur this summer...but wait until it stabilizes to make sure it's not the big one before buying.

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Re: I feel like selling my 3 fund

Post by goblue100 » Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:13 am

md&pharmacist wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:01 am
OP, I have over $1M in savings accounts that I am not willing to put in the markets now for the same reasons you noted.
Wait, in your other thread that got locked you said:
$277,270.87 Cash for Investing
Now it's over a million? This is why no one believes you in the other thread.
Some people are immune to good advice. - Saul Goodman

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Re: I feel like selling my 3 fund

Post by md&pharmacist » Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:25 am

goblue100 wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:13 am
md&pharmacist wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:01 am
OP, I have over $1M in savings accounts that I am not willing to put in the markets now for the same reasons you noted.
Wait, in your other thread that got locked you said:
$277,270.87 Cash for Investing
Now it's over a million? This is why no one believes you in the other thread.
$277k in 401(k)/IRA account earmarked for market investing.
About $1.5M in savings for all other expenses. My expenses alone are nearing %100K/month.
Also have $500K unused HELOC for insurance.

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Re: I feel like selling my 3 fund

Post by longinvest » Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:25 am

md&pharmacist wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:25 am
goblue100 wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:13 am
md&pharmacist wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:01 am
OP, I have over $1M in savings accounts that I am not willing to put in the markets now for the same reasons you noted.

Wait, in your other thread that got locked you said:
$277,270.87 Cash for Investing
Now it's over a million? This is why no one believes you in the other thread.
$277k in 401(k)/IRA account earmarked for market investing.
About $1.5M in savings for all other expenses. My expenses alone are nearing %100K/month.
Also have $500K unused HELOC for insurance.
In other words, considering the "not willing to put in the markets now" comment, there's a $2M buying power (including leverage) waiting on the sidelines for investing opportunity that was unreported in your earlier post. As we ruled out leverage, and an emergency fund of a few months would be reasonable, this still leaves an unreported $1M on the sidelines.

This breaks the trust I had put in your disclosure of portfolio assets to calculate actual returns forward.
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Re: I feel like selling my 3 fund

Post by md&pharmacist » Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:11 pm

longinvest wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:25 am
md&pharmacist wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:25 am
goblue100 wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:13 am
md&pharmacist wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:01 am
OP, I have over $1M in savings accounts that I am not willing to put in the markets now for the same reasons you noted.

Wait, in your other thread that got locked you said:
$277,270.87 Cash for Investing
Now it's over a million? This is why no one believes you in the other thread.
$277k in 401(k)/IRA account earmarked for market investing.
About $1.5M in savings for all other expenses. My expenses alone are nearing %100K/month.
Also have $500K unused HELOC for insurance.
In other words, considering the "not willing to put in the markets now" comment, there's a $2M buying power (including leverage) waiting on the sidelines for investing opportunity that was unreported in your earlier post. As we ruled out leverage, and an emergency fund of a few months would be reasonable, this still leaves an unreported $1M on the sidelines.

This breaks the trust I had put in your disclosure of portfolio assets to calculate actual returns forward.
Great idea! I can leverage my house and office buildings by refinancing with cash out. I can also leverage with a personal loan. I can sell the business and with all that, I can increase my market investments to $10M! That's an unreported $8.5 million on the sidelines! Who needs cash to cover $100k/month in expenses anyway - let's just wing it. :oops:

...you see how ridiculous making unintelligent statements for the sake of making an argument is, given no one will benefit from such statements. As for me, I am and will continue to do fine no matter what anyone believes. In the meantime, those who are legitimately open minded just continue to ignore ridiculous comments that benefit no one. You can avoid yourself a lot of heartache by not following my portfolio moves, this will avoid childish comments and allow those who are genuinely interested to absorb and respond freely.

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Re: I feel like selling my 3 fund

Post by longinvest » Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:15 pm

md&pharmacist wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:11 pm
longinvest wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:25 am
md&pharmacist wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:25 am
goblue100 wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:13 am
md&pharmacist wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:01 am
OP, I have over $1M in savings accounts that I am not willing to put in the markets now for the same reasons you noted.

Wait, in your other thread that got locked you said:
$277,270.87 Cash for Investing
Now it's over a million? This is why no one believes you in the other thread.
$277k in 401(k)/IRA account earmarked for market investing.
About $1.5M in savings for all other expenses. My expenses alone are nearing %100K/month.
Also have $500K unused HELOC for insurance.
In other words, considering the "not willing to put in the markets now" comment, there's a $2M buying power (including leverage) waiting on the sidelines for investing opportunity that was unreported in your earlier post. As we ruled out leverage, and an emergency fund of a few months would be reasonable, this still leaves an unreported $1M on the sidelines.

This breaks the trust I had put in your disclosure of portfolio assets to calculate actual returns forward.
Great idea! I can leverage my house and office buildings by refinancing with cash out. I can also leverage with a personal loan. I can sell the business and with all that, I can increase my market investments to $10M! That's an unreported $8.5 million on the sidelines! Who needs cash to cover $100k/month in expenses anyway - let's just wing it. :oops:

...you see how ridiculous making unintelligent statements for the sake of making an argument is, given no one will benefit from such statements. As for me, I am and will continue to do fine no matter what anyone believes. In the meantime, those who are legitimately open minded just continue to ignore ridiculous comments that benefit no one. You can avoid yourself a lot of heartache by not following my portfolio moves, this will avoid childish comments and allow those who are genuinely interested to absorb and respond freely.
This is what you wrote:
md&pharmacist wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:01 am
OP, I have over $1M in savings accounts that I am not willing to put in the markets now for the same reasons you noted.
This is $1M on the sidelines that was unreported in the other thread.
Bogleheads investment philosophy | Lifelong Portfolio: 25% each of (domestic/international)stocks/(nominal/inflation-indexed)bonds | VCN/VXC/VLB/ZRR

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Re: I feel like selling my 3 fund

Post by md&pharmacist » Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:27 pm

longinvest wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:15 pm
md&pharmacist wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:11 pm
longinvest wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:25 am
md&pharmacist wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:25 am
goblue100 wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:13 am


Wait, in your other thread that got locked you said:


Now it's over a million? This is why no one believes you in the other thread.
$277k in 401(k)/IRA account earmarked for market investing.
About $1.5M in savings for all other expenses. My expenses alone are nearing %100K/month.
Also have $500K unused HELOC for insurance.
In other words, considering the "not willing to put in the markets now" comment, there's a $2M buying power (including leverage) waiting on the sidelines for investing opportunity that was unreported in your earlier post. As we ruled out leverage, and an emergency fund of a few months would be reasonable, this still leaves an unreported $1M on the sidelines.

This breaks the trust I had put in your disclosure of portfolio assets to calculate actual returns forward.
Great idea! I can leverage my house and office buildings by refinancing with cash out. I can also leverage with a personal loan. I can sell the business and with all that, I can increase my market investments to $10M! That's an unreported $8.5 million on the sidelines! Who needs cash to cover $100k/month in expenses anyway - let's just wing it. :oops:

...you see how ridiculous making unintelligent statements for the sake of making an argument is, given no one will benefit from such statements. As for me, I am and will continue to do fine no matter what anyone believes. In the meantime, those who are legitimately open minded just continue to ignore ridiculous comments that benefit no one. You can avoid yourself a lot of heartache by not following my portfolio moves, this will avoid childish comments and allow those who are genuinely interested to absorb and respond freely.
This is what you wrote:
md&pharmacist wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:01 am
OP, I have over $1M in savings accounts that I am not willing to put in the markets now for the same reasons you noted.
This is $1M on the sidelines that was unreported in the other thread.
I reported $10M in assets in the last and multiple threads. $8.5M is on the market sidelines. You can use $8.5M on the sidelines to make your ridiculous point about my returns if that makes you feel better. Trying to help you out here.

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Re: I feel like selling my 3 fund

Post by longinvest » Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:30 pm

Returns are calculated on investment assets, not net worth. We don't need to account for your net worth. But, we need to account for all money available to invest. This includes the extra $1M you told the OP of this thread you're "not willing to put in the markets now".
Last edited by longinvest on Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: I feel like selling my 3 fund

Post by aburntoutcase » Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:33 pm

You have only 36% in equities, what is the big deal? Even in a 50% bear market you will only lose 18%.

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Re: I feel like selling my 3 fund

Post by md&pharmacist » Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:34 pm

longinvest wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:30 pm
Returns are calculated on investment assets, not on total assets. We don't need to account for your net worth. But, we need to account for all money available to invest. This includes the extra $1M you told the OP of this thread you're "not willing to put in the markets now".
What is an "investment asset"?

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Re: I feel like selling my 3 fund

Post by longinvest » Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:46 pm

md&pharmacist wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:34 pm
longinvest wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:30 pm
Returns are calculated on investment assets, not on total assets. We don't need to account for your net worth. But, we need to account for all money available to invest. This includes the extra $1M you told the OP of this thread you're "not willing to put in the markets now".
What is an "investment asset"?
In the context of measuring your investment returns, it includes all portfolio investments (e.g. not including house, personal business assets like a medical practice), and all cash that is available to invest (e.g cash in portfolio accounts) or that can be made available to invest (e.g. cash sitting in savings account that could be diverted into the portfolio if you felt markets were good for it).

The idea is that it would be unfair not to account for the return (or lack of return) on big chunks of money sitting on the sidelines outside of portfolio accounts, waiting to be deployed at an opportune time. $1M represents more than 50% of the reported portfolio; this significantly affects returns (e.g. 30% of $1.8M is only 19% of $2.8M).
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Re: I feel like selling my 3 fund

Post by md&pharmacist » Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:08 pm

longinvest wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:46 pm
md&pharmacist wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:34 pm
longinvest wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:30 pm
Returns are calculated on investment assets, not on total assets. We don't need to account for your net worth. But, we need to account for all money available to invest. This includes the extra $1M you told the OP of this thread you're "not willing to put in the markets now".
What is an "investment asset"?
All portfolio investments (e.g. not including house, personal business assets like a medical practice), and all cash that is available to invest (e.g cash in portfolio accounts) or that can be made available to invest (e.g. cash sitting in savings account that could be diverted into the portfolio if you felt markets were good for it).

The idea is that it would be unfair to not account for the return (or lack of return) on big chunks of money sitting on the sidelines outside of portfolio account, waiting to be deployed at an opportune time. $1M represents more than 50% of the reported portfolio; this significantly affects returns (e.g. 30% of $2.8M is 47% of $1.8M).
That would be suicide with $100K in monthly expenses. We are just playing in two completely different ball parks, you and I.
I absolutely don't feel this mature market is good for any more than I have invested in it (what's currently in my brokerage accounts). At this time, I feel further investment in my kids education, business and real estate is better and safer. In a brand new bull market that may a good idea to divert from the business and real estate (not the kid's education), but for now any extra cash needed is better invested in my other investments. I don't want to be the one with 50+% of my NW in the stock market, many here do - it's outrageously risky to me.

OP is absolutely right to be concerned about his 3 fund portfolio in this aging bull market. I am very concerned my self and remain vigilant to avoid over-exposure to the risk here that you don't seem to understand.

Play it safe, better than calling someone a liar who is trying to keep you safe. Too many exposed assets in a mature market is not safe. You may have a better argument in a new bull. Know who your friends are, and who really doesn't care.

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Re: I feel like selling my 3 fund

Post by longinvest » Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:34 pm

OK. We've got your posts on this thread to attest of a possible significant cash drag. I'll link to it when the other thread is unlocked due to portfolio changes.
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Re: I feel like selling my 3 fund [md&pharmacist]

Post by LadyGeek » Tue Jun 19, 2018 3:34 pm

The above posts were derailing I feel like selling my 3 fund and are relevant for this thread.

From my previous post:
LadyGeek wrote:
Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:39 pm
A number of off-topic replies challenging the OP's intent, sincerity to follow-through, or (lack of) information to track performance have been removed. The off-topic posts are continuing.

This thread is locked until the md&pharmacist PMs a moderator (myself, prudent, or triceratop) with information about the latest transaction. We'll reopen the thread at that time.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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