To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

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FoolStreet
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by FoolStreet » Sat Jun 09, 2018 2:34 pm

Travelgeek, at one time we talked about Supercharge options between Bend & Boise. It looks like Tesla just updated its map of "coming soon" superchargers. I was impressed to see one coming to Burns, Madras and Ontario. And in the general vicinity, there is one coming to Mountain Home, ID and Newell, CA. Very impressive.

Hopefully in time for your Model Y to replace your Subie ;-)


https://www.tesla.com/findus?v=2&search ... percharger

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BrandonBogle
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by BrandonBogle » Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:07 pm

roflwaffle wrote:
Sat Jun 09, 2018 9:58 am
For me, the touchscreen isn't an issue. Almost all the controls I normally access when driving are on the stalks and scroll wheels/buttons. The only exception is the wipers if I want to override the auto setting. In that case I need to touch the screen once. I guess if I routinely adjusted the mirrors/steering wheel while driving it would be a pain, but that's also distracting on the cars I have with buttons.
If you want to leave Automatic Wipers engaged but manually add a single wipe, you can do that from the stalk. You only need the screen to turn off Automatic Wipers or engage a continuous manual wipe.

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BrandonBogle
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by BrandonBogle » Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:09 pm

Longdog wrote:
Sat Jun 09, 2018 12:15 pm
It is not a sound financial decision to spend a lot of money on a car. Knowing that, I ordered the AWD, not because its 0-60 time is 0.6s seconds less than the RWD equivalent, but because I expect better handling in the snow. Looking forward to taking delivery in a few months. Worst financial decision of my life, so it better be fun! (I did drive a RWD version and indeed it was a blast.)
I will say that my RWD Model S performs better than my 4WD 4Runner. That said, the amount of snow I get lets me keep all seasons vs. getting winter tires. So performance in areas that get "real snow" :) may vary. That said, many in Norway and Colorado have RWD Model Ses without issue with the proper tires. All things being equal, AWD will likely give you a better drive in the snow though.

vg55
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by vg55 » Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:59 pm

I also reserved a model 3 with a 1k deposit. After waiting at least a year for delivery, I decided that the price had become too rich for me. So I cancelled my reservation and received a return of my deposit.

I am now thinking that a chevy volt would work best for my wife and I. We seem to travel most in the less than 50 miles/day except when we take very long trips to NC or VT. I really dont want to wait to recharge, so the Volt would allow us to go directly to the gas engine.

Plan now is as follows: wait until 2019 or 2020 to buy a used Chevy Volt circa 2016. My 2004 Honda Accord has 210,000 miles and should get me to 2019 or beyond.

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BrandonBogle
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by BrandonBogle » Mon Jun 11, 2018 9:45 pm

vg55 wrote:
Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:59 pm
I also reserved a model 3 with a 1k deposit. After waiting at least a year for delivery, I decided that the price had become too rich for me. So I cancelled my reservation and received a return of my deposit.

I am now thinking that a chevy volt would work best for my wife and I. We seem to travel most in the less than 50 miles/day except when we take very long trips to NC or VT. I really dont want to wait to recharge, so the Volt would allow us to go directly to the gas engine.

Plan now is as follows: wait until 2019 or 2020 to buy a used Chevy Volt circa 2016. My 2004 Honda Accord has 210,000 miles and should get me to 2019 or beyond.
I haven't had the chance to drive a Volt Gen 2 (2016 or later), but have ridden in one and driven a Gen 1. They are good cars. While I personally was not a fan of the limited range, it is an all around well done vehicle. Given the extra range of the Gen 2, I think you would be a happy camper. Just beware - once you start driving on electric, you may feel the itch that you dislike the few times you have to run on gas (the Volt will start the motor if it gets too cold and occasionally to circulate oil and such). I know a couple Volt owners that have recently switched to Model 3s. One of them was a dual EV household, kept their Leaf and moved from the Volt to a Model 3. Now they are considering changing the Leaf to a Model 3 next year. They, like you, don't usually drive more than 50 miles/day except from trips to NJ and the occasional unexpected emergency detour (they have two kids, so lots of running around some days).

Especially as more long-range, more "affordable" battery electrics come on the market, depreciation on low range vehicles will likely tick up (or at least hold steady with traditional ICE vehicles). You should be able to get a great deal on the used market for a Volt, or dare I say even potentially a Bolt!

Edited to say "2016 or later" instead of "2015 or later" thanks to madbrain below
Last edited by BrandonBogle on Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.

TravelGeek
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TravelGeek » Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:04 am

FoolStreet wrote:
Sat Jun 09, 2018 2:34 pm
Travelgeek, at one time we talked about Supercharge options between Bend & Boise. It looks like Tesla just updated its map of "coming soon" superchargers. I was impressed to see one coming to Burns, Madras and Ontario. And in the general vicinity, there is one coming to Mountain Home, ID and Newell, CA. Very impressive.

Hopefully in time for your Model Y to replace your Subie ;-)


https://www.tesla.com/findus?v=2&search ... percharger
Thank you, that is great news!

madbrain
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by madbrain » Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:16 am

BrandonBogle wrote:
Mon Jun 11, 2018 9:45 pm
vg55 wrote:
Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:59 pm
I also reserved a model 3 with a 1k deposit. After waiting at least a year for delivery, I decided that the price had become too rich for me. So I cancelled my reservation and received a return of my deposit.

I am now thinking that a chevy volt would work best for my wife and I. We seem to travel most in the less than 50 miles/day except when we take very long trips to NC or VT. I really dont want to wait to recharge, so the Volt would allow us to go directly to the gas engine.

Plan now is as follows: wait until 2019 or 2020 to buy a used Chevy Volt circa 2016. My 2004 Honda Accord has 210,000 miles and should get me to 2019 or beyond.
I haven't had the chance to drive a Volt Gen 2 (2015 or later), but have ridden in one and driven a Gen 1. They are good cars. While I personally was not a fan of the limited range, it is an all around well done vehicle. Given the extra range of the Gen 2, I think you would be a happy camper. Just beware - once you start driving on electric, you may feel the itch that you dislike the few times you have to run on gas (the Volt will start the motor if it gets too cold and occasionally to circulate oil and such). I know a couple Volt owners that have recently switched to Model 3s. One of them was a dual EV household, kept their Leaf and moved from the Volt to a Model 3. Now they are considering changing the Leaf to a Model 3 next year. They, like you, don't usually drive more than 50 miles/day except from trips to NJ and the occasional unexpected emergency detour (they have two kids, so lots of running around some days).

Especially as more long-range, more "affordable" battery electrics come on the market, depreciation on low range vehicles will likely tick up (or at least hold steady with traditional ICE vehicles). You should be able to get a great deal on the used market for a Volt, or dare I say even potentially a Bolt!
Actually the 2015 Volt is still Gen1. I own one. It is the last model year for the Gen1. I bought it right when the 2016 Volt Gen2 was being released, and got significant discount as a result. I have never drive a gen 2 and can't say how much better it might be. But you can never have too much EV range.

The gas engine on the Volt is really small. When battery is depleted, acceleration on freeway is not as good. Also, when climbing the hill on the way to my home, it struggles and there is a smell of burned rubber in my garage almost every single time in the winter when combined with the heater use. Others have reported the same under certain conditions, so I don't think it's just my particular unit. This is only a 0.6 mile stretch but at 15% incline. That particular stretch consumes from 0.6 to 1 kWh in all EVs I have driven (Leaf, Volt, Bolt). Same stretch never caused any issue with my 2007 Prius hybrid, which has a bigger gas engine than the Volt. Pretty sure somewhere, somebody is cheating on emissions tests again as it couldn't possibly be passing emissions tests during that stretch. It doesn't put any smoke or anything but just smells horrible and have to wait a few minutes to dissipate in garage. Or this kind of stressful tests isn't part of emissions tests, but should be. Not sure how you would simulate it in a lab. Put the car on incline and on a treadmill, inside of a huge freezer :) ? IMO, the computer emission tests are mostly bogus.
I have never actually done a smog check in my life as my first car was a 2001 Prius and all others since have been exempted from smog checks (several of them being zero emissions - Leaf and Bolt).

IMO, the Volt, even Gen1, is still better than the Bolt for road trips. This is because of limited availability of CCS chargers, and them not charging the Bolt that fast. Our Bolt has the DCFC CCS option but we have never tried it yet.
Gen2 Volt is probably even better than Gen1.

However, in terms of fuel efficiency and comfort, a regular Prius (non plug-in) beats the Volt. The way I drive, which is to say, over the speed limit, and not in flat terrain, always with AC or heat, I only get about 29-33MPG on gasoline. This compared with 40-45 MPG in the Prius, based on 12 years of driving a 2001, 2007 and 2011 Prius in 2 different home locations.

My Gen1 Volt will go anywhere from 30 to 45 miles on battery depending on driving conditions (speed, terrain, use of AC). Closer to 35 miles on average than 40. Terrain has a lot to do with it. The 2007 Prius was a 5-seater hatchback with much more space than the Volt. So it was both more fuel efficient and comfortable. The Volt is clearly a compromise. I wish they would come out with a Volt Gen 3 that had a form factor closer to the regular Prius. The Prius Prime and older plug-in-prius are a fail, too, as they made it a 4 seater instead of 5 seater, unlike every other Prius ever made. They also have ridiculously small batteries. The Toyota PHEV are much worse compromise than the Volt, IMO.

I think Ford came closest with the C-Max Energi, but EV battery was too small in that car. And electric motor is not good enough, maxing at 75 mph in EV mode. My Volt Gen1 (and same for Gen2) goes to 100mph. I seldom go over 90 but 75-80 is not so uncommon when alone on the freeway at night.

Bolt is limited to 90 mph also, which looks slow on paper but is actually plenty good enough given the acceleration that car has if you actually drive it.

IMO, we have yet to see the ideal PHEV. In the meantime, Volt Gen2 is the best on the market. Suitable for roadtrips unless you need to seat 5.

My 2007 Prius was old a long time ago since we couldn't justify 3 cars - money immobilized in cars, depreciation, but also ongoing costs of registration, now much higher in California than they used to be. Over $500 for my Bolt at this year's renewal, and $350 for my 3-year old Volt.
Insurance costs are also crazy high mostly due to zip code and husband having 2 points on license ... Cost of insurance & registration is a significant portion of overall driving costs for us, about 25% and that's with two car loans and both cars financed 0% down for 7 years at <2% APR.
2011 Prius was fixed and sold one year ago after a major accident and replaced with Bolt.

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matjen
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:23 am

Glad my $300 short position on TSLA is imaginary. Tesla on fire this week. :shock:
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DanMahowny
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by DanMahowny » Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:20 pm

Yep. I shorted at $365. Considering another 100 share short.

No profits, crappy balance sheet, CEO is a snake oil salesman.

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matjen
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:47 pm

DanMahowny wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:20 pm
Yep. I shorted at $365. Considering another 100 share short.

No profits, crappy balance sheet, CEO is a snake oil salesman.
Looks like Musk is pulling out all the stops to show some sort of profit by Q3. Agree with you. Won’t matter in the long run. A growth company doesn’t lay off 9% of its work force during a crucial ramp up. Service, warranty coverage and repair will suffer.

Prospective Model 3 owners take note.
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.

ERISA Stone
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by ERISA Stone » Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:21 pm

DanMahowny wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:20 pm
Yep. I shorted at $365. Considering another 100 share short.

No profits, crappy balance sheet, CEO is a snake oil salesman.
Oof, good luck with that. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... ce=twitter

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by LadyGeek » Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:34 pm

Please stay on-topic, which is to take delivery (or not) of a Tesla 3.

Update: An off-topic post (before this post) and a response (after this post) were removed.
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HomerJ
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by HomerJ » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:34 pm

FoolStreet wrote:
Sat Jun 09, 2018 2:34 pm
Travelgeek, at one time we talked about Supercharge options between Bend & Boise. It looks like Tesla just updated its map of "coming soon" superchargers. I was impressed to see one coming to Burns, Madras and Ontario. And in the general vicinity, there is one coming to Mountain Home, ID and Newell, CA. Very impressive.

Hopefully in time for your Model Y to replace your Subie ;-)


https://www.tesla.com/findus?v=2&search ... percharger
It's great that they are adding superchargers, but let's not call one 8-car supercharger per town "very impressive". How about just "nice"
The J stands for Jay

TravelGeek
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TravelGeek » Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:04 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:34 pm
It's great that they are adding superchargers, but let's not call one 8-car supercharger per town "very impressive". How about just "nice"
I don't own a Tesla, but I have to disagree. They now have over 10,000 chargers at 1261 stations. To me that IS impressive. Which other charging system has that coverage?

https://electrek.co/2018/06/09/tesla-10 ... rchargers/

Remember, there aren't that many Teslas around. No point putting 50 chargers into Burns, OR, when they currently have five or six vehicles come through each day (complete guess). And you don't need a supercharger every five miles when you go on a roadtrip. They just need to be spaced out such that you can cover the distances between them. Filling in gaps like Burns, OR, is what they need to do. SCs aren't meant to be for your local driving - I have a fully charged EV every morning in my garage. The primary goal of SCs is to enable roadtrips beyond the range of the vehicle and give apartment dwellers without garage a charging option. (I am certain there aren't many Tesla customers in Burns, OR, though)

kchico
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by kchico » Thu Jun 14, 2018 6:19 am

Tesla is killing it lately. They are about to officially announced the Gigafactory in China and that they are making 5k Model 3's a week. The layoffs are certainly bullish and 35k version of the model is coming in 5 months. Great time to be a Tesla shareholder. :moneybag

wrongfunds
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by wrongfunds » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:37 am

The layoffs are certainly bullish
Have bought in to the kool-aid that layoffs are absolutely great as long as it is not YOUR employer who is doing it to YOU?

kchico
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by kchico » Thu Jun 14, 2018 6:02 pm

wrongfunds wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:37 am
The layoffs are certainly bullish
Have bought in to the kool-aid that layoffs are absolutely great as long as it is not YOUR employer who is doing it to YOU?
What kool-aid? That's the normal way of operation of tech company. Staff up when there is a new project and trim down the work force when they are done. All the employees got good severance packages and stock options. Even employees that where underperforming. Tesla hired 8k people this year and let go of half of them.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.busin ... in-2018-6

FoolStreet
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by FoolStreet » Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:55 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:34 pm
FoolStreet wrote:
Sat Jun 09, 2018 2:34 pm
Travelgeek, at one time we talked about Supercharge options between Bend & Boise. It looks like Tesla just updated its map of "coming soon" superchargers. I was impressed to see one coming to Burns, Madras and Ontario. And in the general vicinity, there is one coming to Mountain Home, ID and Newell, CA. Very impressive.

Hopefully in time for your Model Y to replace your Subie ;-)


https://www.tesla.com/findus?v=2&search ... percharger
It's great that they are adding superchargers, but let's not call one 8-car supercharger per town "very impressive". How about just "nice"
HomerJ, so when do you get yours? Ha ha. Seriously, as far as having a national charging network, Tesla has it. So I can check that box. I am leaning toward getting one....

HopeToGolf
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by HopeToGolf » Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:30 pm

I took delivery of my Model 3 about a week ago. In short, so far it is amazing. I did have a paint issue the first time Tesla tried to deliver the car so I kept my check and they gave me a Model S for a week while they made good.

I won’t offer another review but I am happy to answer questions. The ride was softer than what I expected (good). The linear power curve of an EV is addictive. I love the tech (but do worry it will break). Fit and finish is largely good but I think my charger door is off a little (ironically the loaner Model S had an issue with the charger door). The handling is great.

For reference, I sold a German sport sedan to buy this car.

My advice, take delivery. This EV is a joy to drive. So much so that I cannot imagine buying another gasoline engine (ICE) vehicle.

Edit: I would not worry about Tesla’s survival. The manufacturing of the 3 is not perfect but this car is a winner. Worst case scenario, another car company takes them out (if their valuation falls for some reason). Their lead in this space is too far for this company to fail in such a way that owners get stuck. I will be interested to see how things go when the tax credit ends. It is unlikely that I would have purchased the car I did if I didn’t have the federal tax credit and so sales tax. At a “fully loaded” ICE-like price, I would have probably bought a different (and more expensive) car (but not a BMW 3-Series or Audi A4).

TravelGeek
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TravelGeek » Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:39 pm

HopeToGolf wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:30 pm
It is unlikely that I would have purchased the car I did if I didn’t have the federal tax credit and so sales tax. At a “fully loaded” ICE-like price, I would have probably bought a different (and more expensive) car (but not a BMW 3-Series or Audi A4).
I am curious - now that you have it, did that change what you would have done retroactively? Or asking another way, would it have been a mistake to buy a different (and more expensive) car if you not had received the tax credits?

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Leif
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Leif » Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:42 pm

I'm confused.
HopeToGolf wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:30 pm
My advice, take delivery. This EV is a joy to drive. So much so that I cannot imagine buying another gasoline engine (ICE) vehicle.

...

I will be interested to see how things go when the tax credit ends. It is unlikely that I would have purchased the car I did if I didn’t have the federal tax credit and so sales tax. At a “fully loaded” ICE-like price, I would have probably bought a different (and more expensive) car (but not a BMW 3-Series or Audi A4).
By different car do you mean a different EV, such as the Jaguar i-PACE? Not sure if that is available yet. Maybe a Bolt? But I don't think a Bolt would be more expensive.

Hopefully Tesla will have their international sales going before the tax credit phase out. I also have some concern about the phase out.
Investors should diversify across many asset-classes so that whatever happens, we will not have all our investments in underperforming asset classes and thereby fail to meet our goals-Taylor Larimore

HopeToGolf
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by HopeToGolf » Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:04 pm

TravelGeek wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:39 pm
HopeToGolf wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:30 pm
It is unlikely that I would have purchased the car I did if I didn’t have the federal tax credit and so sales tax. At a “fully loaded” ICE-like price, I would have probably bought a different (and more expensive) car (but not a BMW 3-Series or Audi A4).
I am curious - now that you have it, did that change what you would have done retroactively? Or asking another way, would it have been a mistake to buy a different (and more expensive) car if you not had received the tax credits?
I like the car quite a bit just not for $61K. That would be the price without the federal tax credit and with my state sales tax. The vehicle is special but at $61K I would have said, “OK what else is out there.” I would have probably concluded to stay with ICE and buy something else even if it meant spending a lot more. I almost did this anyway.

Said more succinctly, at $50K (my price including the tax credits) I felt the pull of value and EV hard to ignore. The good news for Tesla is that NJ will still exclude EV from sales tax so that should help its situation.

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matjen
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:12 pm

HopeToGolf wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:30 pm

Edit: I would not worry about Tesla’s survival. The manufacturing of the 3 is not perfect but this car is a winner. Worst case scenario, another car company takes them out (if their valuation falls for some reason). Their lead in this space is too far for this company to fail in such a way that owners get stuck. I will be interested to see how things go when the tax credit ends. It is unlikely that I would have purchased the car I did if I didn’t have the federal tax credit and so sales tax. At a “fully loaded” ICE-like price, I would have probably bought a different (and more expensive) car (but not a BMW 3-Series or Audi A4).
Name the company. All the major players are rolling out their own EVs within weeks/months. They aren't going to buy Tesla. Almost every review I read says the I-Pace is a step forward. Wait until Audi, Mercedes, Gen 2 of BMW and Porsche join the fray. Hyundai and Kia are taking out the bottom price points as well as the Bolt. China has their own companies I believe.
Last edited by matjen on Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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HopeToGolf
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by HopeToGolf » Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:13 pm

Leif wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:42 pm
I'm confused.
HopeToGolf wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:30 pm
My advice, take delivery. This EV is a joy to drive. So much so that I cannot imagine buying another gasoline engine (ICE) vehicle.

...

I will be interested to see how things go when the tax credit ends. It is unlikely that I would have purchased the car I did if I didn’t have the federal tax credit and so sales tax. At a “fully loaded” ICE-like price, I would have probably bought a different (and more expensive) car (but not a BMW 3-Series or Audi A4).
By different car do you mean a different EV, such as the Jaguar i-PACE? Not sure if that is available yet. Maybe a Bolt? But I don't think a Bolt would be more expensive.

Hopefully Tesla will have their international sales going before the tax credit phase out. I also have some concern about the phase out.
Never a Bolt. I would have likely purchased an ICE. Frankly, the car I bought I think is good value. I don’t think there is a sport sedan that can compete. Without the tax credit, I would have said screw it and bought an ICE vehicle, probably in a different class.

When the $35K vehicle is manufactured and delivered, watch out...I think that is a pretty good deal. It will make my car look overpriced. It will be probably 80%-90% of my car at $15K less.

HopeToGolf
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by HopeToGolf » Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:21 pm

matjen wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:12 pm
HopeToGolf wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:30 pm

Edit: I would not worry about Tesla’s survival. The manufacturing of the 3 is not perfect but this car is a winner. Worst case scenario, another car company takes them out (if their valuation falls for some reason). Their lead in this space is too far for this company to fail in such a way that owners get stuck. I will be interested to see how things go when the tax credit ends. It is unlikely that I would have purchased the car I did if I didn’t have the federal tax credit and so sales tax. At a “fully loaded” ICE-like price, I would have probably bought a different (and more expensive) car (but not a BMW 3-Series or Audi A4).
Name the company. All the major players are rolling out their own EVs within weeks/months. They aren't going to buy Tesla. Almost every review I read says the I-Pace is a step forward. Wait until Audi, Mercedes, Gen 2 of BMW and Porsche join the fray. Hyundai and Kia are taking out the bottom price points as well as the Bolt.
I cannot, I am not close enough to the products and manufacturing lines of the industry. The hypothetical is too out there given Tesla’s valuation and current manufacturing. The point I wanted to make is the brand, infrastructure and manufacturing must have some value to one of those companies. I have no doubt the big guys can invest but if Tesla’s valuation got hit I would guess they can accelerate their EV presence by buying the company.

That said, I cannot think of a scenario where Tesla’s valuation drops enough for one of the other manufacturers to take them out yet there being enough value in the brand, infrastructure and manufacturing to make a deal make sense.

It appears to me Tesla has gotten over the hump. They are here for the long haul.

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matjen
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:33 pm

HopeToGolf wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:21 pm
It appears to me Tesla has gotten over the hump. They are here for the long haul.
Strongly disagree. They are literally finishing cars in a tent (I’m sure the quality control will be top notch) and just put up Fremont as collateral and Model 3 production numbers continue to be horrid. They could still make it but I am very doubtful.

http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-mo ... far-2018-6
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emoore
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by emoore » Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:40 pm

matjen wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:12 pm
HopeToGolf wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:30 pm

Edit: I would not worry about Tesla’s survival. The manufacturing of the 3 is not perfect but this car is a winner. Worst case scenario, another car company takes them out (if their valuation falls for some reason). Their lead in this space is too far for this company to fail in such a way that owners get stuck. I will be interested to see how things go when the tax credit ends. It is unlikely that I would have purchased the car I did if I didn’t have the federal tax credit and so sales tax. At a “fully loaded” ICE-like price, I would have probably bought a different (and more expensive) car (but not a BMW 3-Series or Audi A4).
Name the company. All the major players are rolling out their own EVs within weeks/months. They aren't going to buy Tesla. Almost every review I read says the I-Pace is a step forward. Wait until Audi, Mercedes, Gen 2 of BMW and Porsche join the fray. Hyundai and Kia are taking out the bottom price points as well as the Bolt. China has their own companies I believe.
And where are all these EVs? They either exist on paper or in very limited quantities. The established car companies are going to be in for a rude awaking when the demand for EVs skyrocket. I’m guessing a few of them will be in serious trouble like GE is from doubling down on oil and gas energy products.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by HomerJ » Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:55 pm

TravelGeek wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:04 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:34 pm
It's great that they are adding superchargers, but let's not call one 8-car supercharger per town "very impressive". How about just "nice"
I don't own a Tesla, but I have to disagree. They now have over 10,000 chargers at 1261 stations. To me that IS impressive. Which other charging system has that coverage?
Gas stations. 100x the coverage.

When I go electric it will be a hybrid. Not the old Prius type hybrid, the new Volt type hybrid. Where it's 100% electric until the battery runs down, then it switches to gas to extend its range.

All the advantages of an electric car for short commutes, and the advantages of a gas car on long drives, AND the flexibility of being able to "recharge" in 5 minutes at over 100,000 stations all over the country instead of 45 minutes at just 1261 stations.

Maybe that would have been a better way to go for Tesla too instead of spending $300 million on superchargers.

Saw a Volt today in traffic... Looked very nice.
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TravelGeek » Tue Jun 19, 2018 11:11 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:55 pm
TravelGeek wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:04 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:34 pm
It's great that they are adding superchargers, but let's not call one 8-car supercharger per town "very impressive". How about just "nice"
I don't own a Tesla, but I have to disagree. They now have over 10,000 chargers at 1261 stations. To me that IS impressive. Which other charging system has that coverage?
Gas stations. 100x the coverage.
How many gas stations were there when the number of ICE vehicles on US roads was the same as today's EV count?

Also, as I keep saying, I have a "gas station" for my LEAF right in my garage (and in the state of Oregon I am even allowed to operate it myself). The same is probably true for most other EV buyers at the moment. So the ratio of "gas stations" to EVs is probably actually much better for EVs than for ICE vehicles. Unless you store fifty gallons of gas in your garage at all times? ;)

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TravelGeek » Tue Jun 19, 2018 11:16 pm

matjen wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:12 pm
Name the company. All the major players are rolling out their own EVs within weeks/months. They aren't going to buy Tesla.
I am looking forward to them being rolled out. By that I hope you mean being available to order, not just showing concept vehicles and announcing future models, right?

There are lots of other deep pocketed companies that could be buyers of Tesla. Apple, Google, Geely, Toyota (they really don't seem to have a good EV strategy), VW (they have so many brands, what's one more, and they have an image to clean up with people concerned about environmentally friendly vehicles), ... Heck, I wouldn't even rule out Bezos/Amazon.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Leif » Tue Jun 19, 2018 11:28 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:55 pm
Gas stations. 100x the coverage.
Correct, compared to Tesla. 168,000 retail gas stations. Compared to public charging stations 10X.

Number of households in the US 126,000,000. Per world bank % with electricity in US, 100%. Basically everyone has "fuel" from their house. A few have issues with apartments, but Tesla is putting in more chargers in urban settings, and apartments are adding chargers to their parking garages. Also, outside of home 16,000 public charging stations.

Some more planning is needed for trips, but very doable in my experience. Only had one issue with charging, and that was in a national park. However, I was able to plug into a 120V line and charge overnight. That gave me an additional 40 miles of range, which was sufficient for my driving in the park.

Charging for trips does take too long. But you need to stop for breaks and eating (at least I do), so not too much extra time added (for Tesla superchargers). But for those making many trips it may be a deal breaker for an EV.

As for hybrids, I don't like the mechanical complexity and still have the maintenance burden of ICE cars.
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TravelGeek » Wed Jun 20, 2018 12:23 am

Leif wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 11:28 pm
As for hybrids, I don't like the mechanical complexity and still have the maintenance burden of ICE cars.
That is why we switched from a 2010 Prius (non-plugin) to the LEAF (instead of plugin hybrids like the Volt or newer Prius). Like most people we have a second vehicle that is currently an ICE and perfectly capable and comfortable for occasional road trips if we don’t want to deal with charging and range limitations. But for regional driving the LEAF seems perfect - 150 miles range every morning. Very limited maintenance needs, no complexity, no need to haul around gas and a gasoline engine that we don’t need.

But it is a free country, everyone’s needs are different, and I don’t get paid by Nissan or Tesla, so I am not actually trying to sell an EV to HomerJ.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:36 am

HopeToGolf wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:21 pm

It appears to me Tesla has gotten over the hump. They are here for the long haul.
The cash flow profile still looks horrendous.

This is a company that is based on hope value. They have to keep moving that end-of-road forward as they catch up to it (burn through cash)-- they are extending the road each day that the company then drives down.

Volume car companies all have these issues of high working capital and capex requirements.

If you are BMW you have a 12%+ operating margin which guarantees you generate cash on every sale. For most car companies it is a lot harder.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:29 am

I would disagree that some mega company would need to come over Tesla like a wave to usurp them. Many electric and hybrid cars currently exist within model lineups that nobody seems to ever talk about. Golf e, Honda Clarity, going into the hybrid line, cmax, camry..... It's just that everyone seems to focus on Tesla, Bolt, Volt and Prius as if those are the only cars available. Going forward, the rest of the e and hybrid cars out there are going to be "discovered" and buyers will think "gee, I don't have to spend $60k for an e car?". Well, no. If you want to spend under $30k, it's actually pretty easy to find a car. Personally, I look at prices of $60k and $30k and I know I'm in the minority in a basket of Tesla fans, but I would rather buy the $30k car. Honestly, that's even too much and I just bought a 1 year old Subaru that's depreciated pretty well in its first year.
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by DanMahowny » Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:29 am

I have a simple rule regarding automobile purchases.

1) Never buy a car that was manufactured in a tent.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Longdog » Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:21 am

TravelGeek wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 11:11 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:55 pm
TravelGeek wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:04 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:34 pm
It's great that they are adding superchargers, but let's not call one 8-car supercharger per town "very impressive". How about just "nice"
I don't own a Tesla, but I have to disagree. They now have over 10,000 chargers at 1261 stations. To me that IS impressive. Which other charging system has that coverage?
Gas stations. 100x the coverage.
How many gas stations were there when the number of ICE vehicles on US roads was the same as today's EV count?

Also, as I keep saying, I have a "gas station" for my LEAF right in my garage (and in the state of Oregon I am even allowed to operate it myself). The same is probably true for most other EV buyers at the moment. So the ratio of "gas stations" to EVs is probably actually much better for EVs than for ICE vehicles. Unless you store fifty gallons of gas in your garage at all times? ;)
Great points. I just had my personal EV gas station installed in my garage. When the Model 3 arrives, every morning I will wake up with a full "tank" and will be able to drive about 300 miles that day (although honestly I wouldn't push it that close - probably 250 miles, but I rarely drive that far in a single day) without having to worry about filling up while I'm out living my life. I don't think that concept is widely understood. I think people still have in their minds that the distance you'd drive an EV before a "refill" is the same as an ICE vehicle (e.g., drive until the power level is at 25% then recharge) when in reality, for most driving scenarios most EV owners will be fine by charging overnight in the convenience of their own home, waking up to a fully charged vehicle.
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:29 am

DanMahowny wrote:
Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:29 am
I have a simple rule regarding automobile purchases.

1) Never buy a car that was manufactured in a tent.
This isn't just a tent, it's a Tesla tent. The best most advanced tent. The tent that big oil and Detroit was afraid to build and doesn't want you to see.

Image

Oh, it's just a tent on a parking lot where your 80K AWD Model 3 is going to have horrid build quality.
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by niceguy7376 » Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:52 am

DanMahowny and matjen have so much time on their hands to comment on posts that are never an answer to the topic "To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3"

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:07 am

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:29 am
I would disagree that some mega company would need to come over Tesla like a wave to usurp them. Many electric and hybrid cars currently exist within model lineups that nobody seems to ever talk about. Golf e, Honda Clarity, going into the hybrid line, cmax, camry..... It's just that everyone seems to focus on Tesla, Bolt, Volt and Prius as if those are the only cars available. Going forward, the rest of the e and hybrid cars out there are going to be "discovered" and buyers will think "gee, I don't have to spend $60k for an e car?". Well, no. If you want to spend under $30k, it's actually pretty easy to find a car. Personally, I look at prices of $60k and $30k and I know I'm in the minority in a basket of Tesla fans, but I would rather buy the $30k car. Honestly, that's even too much and I just bought a 1 year old Subaru that's depreciated pretty well in its first year.
The choice of a Tesla is not about money. If we bought cars only on financial grounds we'd all drive 2-3 year old Toyota and Hondas (or equivalent).

Modern capitalism is about desiring things you don't have, that accord with your self image & status ambitions. Vauxhall Frontera's (small SUV, built by GM) were the auto-du-choix of the pimps around where I lived in London, once. You wouldn't catch me dead in one. Nor in a Porsche Cayenne, the car of the moment for the London mum whose husband is an investment banker with 3 kids on the school run. Neither suits my class aspirations. College professors in New Hampshire and Vermont (drove) Volvos (so did Gen Colin Powell ;-)).

Modern capitalism works because we desire things that we don't have, that meet our own expectations of status and image (my father used to keep his cars 10+ years, that was another statement, albeit one of "checking out" of that particular positional arms race*.

In sum, people don't buy cars because of their utility value. Virtually any car would have that utility value (drive from A to B, with modern safety standards). It would then just be about price & total lifecycle cost of ownership.

* there's an economist at Cornell, Robert Frank, who's written a couple of quite insightful books and readable books about this "The Winner Take All Society" is one of them.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by emoore » Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:26 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:07 am
Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:29 am
I would disagree that some mega company would need to come over Tesla like a wave to usurp them. Many electric and hybrid cars currently exist within model lineups that nobody seems to ever talk about. Golf e, Honda Clarity, going into the hybrid line, cmax, camry..... It's just that everyone seems to focus on Tesla, Bolt, Volt and Prius as if those are the only cars available. Going forward, the rest of the e and hybrid cars out there are going to be "discovered" and buyers will think "gee, I don't have to spend $60k for an e car?". Well, no. If you want to spend under $30k, it's actually pretty easy to find a car. Personally, I look at prices of $60k and $30k and I know I'm in the minority in a basket of Tesla fans, but I would rather buy the $30k car. Honestly, that's even too much and I just bought a 1 year old Subaru that's depreciated pretty well in its first year.
The choice of a Tesla is not about money. If we bought cars only on financial grounds we'd all drive 2-3 year old Toyota and Hondas (or equivalent).

Modern capitalism is about desiring things you don't have, that accord with your self image & status ambitions. Vauxhall Frontera's (small SUV, built by GM) were the auto-du-choix of the pimps around where I lived in London, once. You wouldn't catch me dead in one. Nor in a Porsche Cayenne, the car of the moment for the London mum whose husband is an investment banker with 3 kids on the school run. Neither suits my class aspirations. College professors in New Hampshire and Vermont (drove) Volvos (so did Gen Colin Powell ;-)).

Modern capitalism works because we desire things that we don't have, that meet our own expectations of status and image (my father used to keep his cars 10+ years, that was another statement, albeit one of "checking out" of that particular positional arms race*.

In sum, people don't buy cars because of their utility value. Virtually any car would have that utility value (drive from A to B, with modern safety standards). It would then just be about price & total lifecycle cost of ownership.

* there's an economist at Cornell, Robert Frank, who's written a couple of quite insightful books and readable books about this "The Winner Take All Society" is one of them.
+1. The Model 3 is not competing with the leaf or bolt or prius, it's competing with the BMW 3 Series, Audi A4, etc. And they seem to be doing very well against those cars so far. Granted that might just be the initial excitement of the Model 3 but sales for the entry level luxury autos from the traditional 3 (BMW, Audi, Mecedes) are dropping while sales of the Model 3 are increasing. I think the Model 3 is going to be a wakeup call to those manufactures.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:36 am

niceguy7376 wrote:
Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:52 am
DanMahowny and matjen have so much time on their hands to comment on posts that are never an answer to the topic "To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3"
Do not order or take delivery of a Model 3 is my answer. Thought it was pretty clear but just in case.

Do not take delivery of a Model 3 because:

1) This is the worst review I have ever read about a car. Period. Tesla has horrid quality control and is unable to make cars on a large scale. In an attempt to get their numbers up to satisfy the markets they will just get shoddier and shoddier. Heck, they may just throw stuff together in a tent. Nah, ridiculous.
Forget that this is a "cutting-edge" EV with a cult following. That's irrelevant if Tesla wants to be anything more than a footnote in automotive history. Our Model 3 cost us $56,000, and by that standard alone, the ownership experience so far has been unacceptable.
https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-3/2 ... -2018.html

2) The company is in dire financial straits and very well could not survive another year or two. This opinion is shared by Jim Chanos who is one of the deans of short sellers, Josh Wolfe who is a well known VC that specializes in tech forward dreamers like Musk, and Sam Antar who was the former CFO of Crazy Eddies. This is like the Avengers ;-). I personally didn't have much of an opinion until a guy like Wolfe turned extremely bearish. Antar thinks it is outright fraud which he specializes in.

3) The company has seen a ton of senior level people leave voluntarily which is a bad sign. Tesla, in its growth stage and at a crucial time, is laying off 9% of its workforce. Interestingly, they announce this 5 days after a shareholder meeting. Why not at it? Bad juju for morale and support of the cars on the road.

4) The tax credits are expiring/diminishing so unless you are taking delivery right now with an early model will only get more expensive.

5) Many competing cars are coming out within months. I-Pace within weeks. Audi E-Tron Q1. Hyundai Kona Q1, Mercedes Q1 (I think), Porsche Taycan Q2, BMW ix3 Q3, etc.

https://www.autoblog.com/2018/03/28/201 ... e-0032856/

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new- ... or-mirrors

http://media.daimler.com/marsMediaSite/ ... d=40367883

6) Tesla does not have the money or resources to update their existing cars in any reasonable fashion or build new ones. Instead we get PR stunts about trucks, roadsters, and shadowy Y. Model S is still good but very old. Next year it and X run into real competition. Will be a big financial struggle.

7) Tesla's autopilot is pretty dangerous and no longer anywhere near the leader that people thought it was two years ago. That argument for them has been settled.

As Valuethinker rightly points out, buying a Tesla/car isn't always about money and never was the case with Tesla. If you want to have an unreliable and interesting car that can be sort of a hobby and that you can prattle on about then that is why you buy it. The problem is that, IMO, that stuff was fueled by the visionary image of Musk/Tesla and no competition. The tide has turned and he is looking more and more like a kook (arguing on twitter, pumping stock after hours, claims of sabotage, outrageous statements about the tent line, etc.) and perhaps an outright fraud.

The taste-makers that bought a Model S and X will be buying the Porsche next year and the buzz will be about that. Later buyers of a Tesla will still be buying a very expensive car that is made shoddily, not the car/brand of the moment, and will have very suspect support.

As a final coda, I think people confuse the massive advantages of electric vehicles (in urban/exurban settings for people with more than one car) with the advantages of a Tesla. When these other luxury or near luxury cars hit the market Tesla will no longer get that benefit. I love the way my i3 drives in the City and friends love to try it out, etc. It is a feature of the electric drive train.
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TravelGeek » Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:56 am

matjen wrote:
Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:36 am
... and that you can prattle on about then that is why you buy it.
Seems to me you don’t actually have to buy one to prattle on about it. :shock: :D :twisted:

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by niceguy7376 » Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:05 am

matjen wrote:
Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:36 am
Do not order or take delivery of a Model 3 is my answer. Thought it was pretty clear but just in case.
You have mentioned that around 50 times in this thread. No one needs to read that again and again. Let those that have the reservations (I have one and current price is beyond my financial reach and hence waiting on the base model) and bought their cars provide the input.

Remember that no other EV is close to reaching the fed tax sales limit. so once they(other manufacturers) reach that limit (3 to 5 years at a minimum), then we will see how their sales will be. For now, those that would love to drive a tesla (maybe similar to apple fans and such) and made a deposit nearly 2+ years back are the ones that are coming to this thread to read about other people's choice.

They are not interested in listening to the same gospel (short them, worst car yada yada) multiple times.
Last edited by niceguy7376 on Wed Jun 20, 2018 12:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by bgf » Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:11 am

who wouldn't want to pay top dollar for a vehicle touting cutting edge tech, manufactured in a tent, by a company that may or may not exist 5 years from now?

i say buy 3.
“TE OCCIDERE POSSUNT SED TE EDERE NON POSSUNT NEFAS EST"

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:22 am

niceguy7376 wrote:
Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:52 am
DanMahowny and matjen have so much time on their hands to comment on posts that are never an answer to the topic "To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3"
But then...
You have mentioned that around 50 times in this thread. No one needs to read that again and again. Let those that have the reservations (I have one and current price is beyond my financial reach and hence waiting on the base model) and bought their cars provide the input.
Which is it? Seems to me you just want some confirmation bias rather than any discussion. Do you have anything of substance to add or do you wish to just snark at me for some reason. Is there any basis for "having a reservation" being a a better indicator of knowledge or opinion? Well Edmunds bought it. :-)
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Leif » Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:42 am

TravelGeek wrote:
Wed Jun 20, 2018 12:23 am
Leif wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 11:28 pm
As for hybrids, I don't like the mechanical complexity and still have the maintenance burden of ICE cars.
That is why we switched from a 2010 Prius (non-plugin) to the LEAF (instead of plugin hybrids like the Volt or newer Prius). Like most people we have a second vehicle that is currently an ICE and perfectly capable and comfortable for occasional road trips if we don’t want to deal with charging and range limitations. But for regional driving the LEAF seems perfect - 150 miles range every morning. Very limited maintenance needs, no complexity, no need to haul around gas and a gasoline engine that we don’t need.

But it is a free country, everyone’s needs are different, and I don’t get paid by Nissan or Tesla, so I am not actually trying to sell an EV to HomerJ.
Homer will buy what is best for him. EVs have a long way to go on range and charging structure. They will get their. They need to because dinosaur juice will not last forever. And we need to reduce carbon in the air. Those are some of my reasons for driving an EV. Plus they are a lot of fun and easy on the ears.
Last edited by Leif on Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:46 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by DanMahowny » Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:44 am

delete
Last edited by DanMahowny on Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:50 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by DanMahowny » Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:47 am

delete
Last edited by DanMahowny on Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:49 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by DanMahowny » Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:49 am

niceguy7376 wrote:
Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:52 am
DanMahowny and matjen have so much time on their hands to comment on posts that are never an answer to the topic "To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3"
I reserved a Model 3 on April 3, 2016. I cancelled in Feb 2017 after I realized Musk lied and there would never be a realistic opportunity to buy a $35k Model 3. I have no interest paying $60k+ for a car like that.

I have said many positive things about Tesla in the past year. Here's one- I test drove a Model S in 2015, and said it was the finest vehicle ever. But not paying $100k+ for a car either.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by imbogled » Wed Jun 20, 2018 10:29 am

Not sure if this was mentioned.
Tesla spontaneously catches fire with no crash.
http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/18/technol ... index.html
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