MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

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triceratop
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by triceratop » Mon Jun 11, 2018 7:35 pm

md&pharmacist wrote:
Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:54 pm
So my current holdings are with returns as of 6/11/2018):
This list is meaningless without the portion each holds in your portfolio. See earlier comments regarding the ability to construct an XIRR out of your initial portfolio + detailed trades.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by md&pharmacist » Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:47 pm

triceratop wrote:
Mon Jun 11, 2018 7:35 pm
md&pharmacist wrote:
Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:54 pm
So my current holdings are with returns as of 6/11/2018):
This list is meaningless without the portion each holds in your portfolio. See earlier comments regarding the ability to construct an XIRR out of your initial portfolio + detailed trades.
Thanks for your feedback and civil discourse, moderator.

YTD 1-YEAR 3-YEAR 5-YEAR 10-YEAR / %-OF-TOTAL-FUND-HOLDINGS
1- VFIAX (Vanguard 500 Admiral) 4.83% 14.35% 10.94% 12.94% 9.13% / 12.25%
2- VQNPX (Vanguard Growth and Income) 5.42% 15.26% 10.90% 13.07% 8.63% / 6.73%
3- VWNDX (Vanguard Windsor Fund) 2.52% 11.44% 7.47% 10.74% 8.42% / 1.37%
4- UNPIX (Profunds Ultra International Fund) – 3.18% 9.81% 1.47% 5.53% – 5.85% / 6.73%
5- DXQLX (Direxion Nasdaq 100 Bull 2x) 22.44% 39.92% 29.89% 37.51% 18.74% / 14.92%
6- FBIOX (Fidelity Select Biotechnology) 9.52% 27.00% – 0.56% 15.15% 17.15% / 11.25%
7- FSPHX (Fidelity Select Healthcare) 14.57% 22.52% 4.86% 17.56% 15.44% / 11.58%
8- FSELX (Fidelity Select Semiconductors) 14.53% 30.63% 22.85% 27.04% 15.70% / 11.45%
9- OPGIX (Oppenheimer Global Opportunties) 6.32% 22.51% 22.79% 18.56% 12.26% / 12.89%
10- UGPIX (Profunds Ultra China) 18.37% 53.36% 10.99% 22.27% – 2.44% / 10.83%

All investors should choose their portfolio and portion of holdings according to their own needs and risk tolerance.

jacoavlu
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by jacoavlu » Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:17 pm

What did you sell to purchase DXQLX?

TN_Boy
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by TN_Boy » Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:27 pm

md&pharmacist wrote:
Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:47 pm
triceratop wrote:
Mon Jun 11, 2018 7:35 pm
md&pharmacist wrote:
Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:54 pm
So my current holdings are with returns as of 6/11/2018):
This list is meaningless without the portion each holds in your portfolio. See earlier comments regarding the ability to construct an XIRR out of your initial portfolio + detailed trades.
Thanks for your feedback and civil discourse, moderator.

YTD 1-YEAR 3-YEAR 5-YEAR 10-YEAR / %-OF-TOTAL-FUND-HOLDINGS
1- VFIAX (Vanguard 500 Admiral) 4.83% 14.35% 10.94% 12.94% 9.13% / 12.25%
2- VQNPX (Vanguard Growth and Income) 5.42% 15.26% 10.90% 13.07% 8.63% / 6.73%
3- VWNDX (Vanguard Windsor Fund) 2.52% 11.44% 7.47% 10.74% 8.42% / 1.37%
4- UNPIX (Profunds Ultra International Fund) – 3.18% 9.81% 1.47% 5.53% – 5.85% / 6.73%
5- DXQLX (Direxion Nasdaq 100 Bull 2x) 22.44% 39.92% 29.89% 37.51% 18.74% / 14.92%
6- FBIOX (Fidelity Select Biotechnology) 9.52% 27.00% – 0.56% 15.15% 17.15% / 11.25%
7- FSPHX (Fidelity Select Healthcare) 14.57% 22.52% 4.86% 17.56% 15.44% / 11.58%
8- FSELX (Fidelity Select Semiconductors) 14.53% 30.63% 22.85% 27.04% 15.70% / 11.45%
9- OPGIX (Oppenheimer Global Opportunties) 6.32% 22.51% 22.79% 18.56% 12.26% / 12.89%
10- UGPIX (Profunds Ultra China) 18.37% 53.36% 10.99% 22.27% – 2.44% / 10.83%

All investors should choose their portfolio and portion of holdings according to their own needs and risk tolerance.
So, I mean, you have made assertions about your portfolio returns. I'll re-ask my previous question. How are you tracking your overall portfolio performance? And what is it YTD, last year, etc. That's what I track, and it's relatively straightforward using excel, even across multiple accounts -- you just need to know start value, and flows in and out of the accounts. I know what my portfolio return has been each year for the last 15 years or so. It doesn't really matter what a particular fund has done, it's the portfolio that matters.

And another question, your list above is all stock funds. Thus you have no bonds, and no cash set aside to buy during market drops?

And finally, you might have stated this and I missed it, but are these funds in taxable accounts or tax-deferred accounts (401k, etc).

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by md&pharmacist » Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:47 pm

jacoavlu wrote:
Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:17 pm
What did you sell to purchase DXQLX?
I sold VAFAX on February 8, 2018 at $20.58/share. It is now up to %22.08, or 7.54% from where I sold it. Therefore I roughly quadrupled my profit so far with the exchange into DXQLX.

While 7.54% over the past 4 months is not bad, it is not the 28% I got from the exchange. That is why I don't get the stay the course strategy. Funds, even index funds, fall out of relative favor and if I just held on to what I had I would have shortchanged my returns significantly.

If you look at VAFAX going back a few years, you'll see even my under-performers are still good performers, because they were strategic purchases as well.

Being nimble and well versed in the markets, as in this example, is key to maintaining long-term out-performance for me.

:happy

jacoavlu
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by jacoavlu » Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:55 pm

What was your last trade, before the one on Feb 8?

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by Ragnoth » Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:58 pm

md&pharmacist wrote:
Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:47 pm
triceratop wrote:
Mon Jun 11, 2018 7:35 pm
md&pharmacist wrote:
Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:54 pm
So my current holdings are with returns as of 6/11/2018):
This list is meaningless without the portion each holds in your portfolio. See earlier comments regarding the ability to construct an XIRR out of your initial portfolio + detailed trades.
Thanks for your feedback and civil discourse, moderator.

YTD 1-YEAR 3-YEAR 5-YEAR 10-YEAR / %-OF-TOTAL-FUND-HOLDINGS
1- VFIAX (Vanguard 500 Admiral) 4.83% 14.35% 10.94% 12.94% 9.13% / 12.25%
2- VQNPX (Vanguard Growth and Income) 5.42% 15.26% 10.90% 13.07% 8.63% / 6.73%
3- VWNDX (Vanguard Windsor Fund) 2.52% 11.44% 7.47% 10.74% 8.42% / 1.37%
4- UNPIX (Profunds Ultra International Fund) – 3.18% 9.81% 1.47% 5.53% – 5.85% / 6.73%
5- DXQLX (Direxion Nasdaq 100 Bull 2x) 22.44% 39.92% 29.89% 37.51% 18.74% / 14.92%
6- FBIOX (Fidelity Select Biotechnology) 9.52% 27.00% – 0.56% 15.15% 17.15% / 11.25%
7- FSPHX (Fidelity Select Healthcare) 14.57% 22.52% 4.86% 17.56% 15.44% / 11.58%
8- FSELX (Fidelity Select Semiconductors) 14.53% 30.63% 22.85% 27.04% 15.70% / 11.45%
9- OPGIX (Oppenheimer Global Opportunties) 6.32% 22.51% 22.79% 18.56% 12.26% / 12.89%
10- UGPIX (Profunds Ultra China) 18.37% 53.36% 10.99% 22.27% – 2.44% / 10.83%

All investors should choose their portfolio and portion of holdings according to their own needs and risk tolerance.
Thank you for sharing this. A lot of people quietly deviate from the three-fund portfolio, but few people are brave enough to share it openly.

It will be interesting to see how this compares to the more generic three-fund portfolio going forward (i.e., comparing total returns of the portfolio starting from this date onward). To keep it fair, please let us know future trades or re-balancing on the day of.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by md&pharmacist » Mon Jun 11, 2018 11:26 pm

jacoavlu wrote:
Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:55 pm
What was your last trade, before the one on Feb 8?
Purchased OPGIX on January 3, 2018 at 70.15. It closed today at 73.25. World small/mid-cap has taken a bit of a breather. If it continues to under-perform going into the next correction, it may be on the chopping block. Willing to give it a chance as a Morningstar 5 star and a Zacks strong buy. One year return is okay at 22.51 but with good long term strength, hoping this fund resumes.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by jacoavlu » Mon Jun 11, 2018 11:33 pm

What did you sell to purchase OPGIX? (It surprises me that I have to ask.)

And what was your last trade before that?

You can see where I’m going with this. May as well, this is gonna be a lot of foreplay and not much action otherwise.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by md&pharmacist » Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:16 am

jacoavlu wrote:
Mon Jun 11, 2018 11:33 pm
What did you sell to purchase OPGIX? (It surprises me that I have to ask.)

And what was your last trade before that?

You can see where I’m going with this. May as well, this is gonna be a lot of foreplay and not much action otherwise.
Not every purchase has to be preceded by a sale.

Well, I'd have to pull out years of transactions, though not sure if I have transactions from 20 years ago. Not like I have to manage patients or anything. :happy

You're missing a very important point. I do not trade short term, most of my funds I have owned for years, so the exact date and purchase price doesn't matter when you look at the strong long term performance over those years. I'm human and not infallible, but constantly studying and improving my returns. I can't have gotten to where I am via the pure luck many here want to believe. Some don't even believe what I've done, and for the life of me I don't know how they think it would benefit me to spend my time making things up instead of learning to continue to improve on where I'm at.

Even as I post my timing on transactions going forward, the point is not that others have my same exact portfolio or buy on the same date. The point is, if someone wishes to, absorb my methodology and either personally reject it, embrace it, or incorporate some aspects. But they have to do their own research and be independent of the preconceived notions here that hold people back from believing in themselves.

I think people have to get over their fear, which appears to be masked here by random insults. I see so much fear here that, had I let it, it would have held me back too.

Anyway, my portfolio is laid out to see what it looks like a year from now. It may ultimately prove to be great, mediocre, or horrible. I'm not to interested in the childish gotcha questions as are many that read the posts here, but in thoughtful dialogue leading to meaningful prosperity moving forward. Have you ever heard the expression, accomplished people look to the future with hope while others dwell on the past. Look to better your future circumstances and don't let your past indoctrination hold you back.

Maybe we should all give a bit of feedback when we ask a question, so it's a meaningful exchange.

:sharebeer

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by hawkfan55 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:24 am

While I appreciate the warning at the top of this post, I honestly do not understand why this opposing point of view is welcome here.

There is a set of Boglehead principles: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Boglehe ... philosophy

While there are many financial issues that forum members can disagree on (from car loans to vacation plans to asset allocation) and still be Bogleheads, it is clear that the OP has a different philosophy about investing that is antithetical to the principles above.

I don’t see this site as a general investing forum; I see it as a forum people who share a common investment approach and want to help each other and new investors/converts who are trying to learn about that approach.

I also don’t see the OP’s investing posts as useful, even as a “what not to do” example.

Respectfully,
delamer
+1 I couldn't agree more... this forum is dedicated to John Bogle's Investing Principles. Whether trading stocks or higher priced mutual funds, it's still trading :annoyed
Being nimble and well versed in the markets, as in this example, is key to maintaining long-term out-performance for me.
Barring a major correction/bear, looking to maintain an average 30-40% 1 year annualized return portfolio.
I'm not aware of any professional money managers or hedge fund managers who can maintain long-term out-performance of the market, especially with the OP's stated investment return goal. I will give the OP credit for thinking positively.

The OP wrote a post in March, 2018 with advice to other physicians, viewtopic.php?f=2&t=191114&p=3844903#p3844903
Family physician and wife is pharmD, ages 45 and 44, respectively. 2 children, early teens.

Current annual take home pretax income $1,250,000 plus $150,000/year commercial real estate rental. We both started practice about 17 years ago at a combined income of about $350,000. Has been growing ever since. Broke the $1,000,000 mark 3 years ago.

Net worth currently $1,800,000 in retirement accounts, $1,700,000 in cash/non-retirement investments, $2,600,000 in commercial real estate ($4,200,000 value-$1,600,000 loans), $1,300,000 in primary residence ($1,700,000-$400,000 loans), $190,000 current value of four automobiles, $3,000,000 (current value of owned medical practice).

Anticipated net worth upon retirement $20,000,000-$30,000,000 depending on business growth rates and investment returns.
The OP obviously has the financial means to pursue his trading hobby. Most members and readers of this forum do not have take home pretax income of $1.25 M plus $150k rental income. His $3.5M of financial investments, $3 M owned practice, four cars valued at $190k and his 1.7 M home certainly put him in the 1% of this forum's members. Trading mutual funds, instead of buy and hold, would be detrimental to the financial outcomes desired by most investors reading this forum.

However, he continues his post advising other physicians how to achieve financial and personal successes. Much of his advice is excellent and, I'm sure, well intentioned. I agree with the OP that "time" is the most valuable asset that physicians and all investors possess.

I hope the OP is as dedicated to his patients as he is to his financial and investing pursuits. If yes, his patients are fortunate. :D
Forum Library of Investing Advice: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Main_Page

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by beezquimby » Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:40 am

Hmm you’re using leveraged sector mutual funds as trading vehicles and claiming to have special insight into when certain sectors fall in and out of favor. Sounds like a great idea!! Nothing to see here folks, keep walking along...
md&pharmacist wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:16 am
jacoavlu wrote:
Mon Jun 11, 2018 11:33 pm
What did you sell to purchase OPGIX? (It surprises me that I have to ask.)

And what was your last trade before that?

You can see where I’m going with this. May as well, this is gonna be a lot of foreplay and not much action otherwise.
Not every purchase has to be preceded by a sale.

Well, I'd have to pull out years of transactions, though not sure if I have transactions from 20 years ago. Not like I have to manage patients or anything. :happy

You're missing a very important point. I do not trade short term, most of my funds I have owned for years, so the exact date and purchase price doesn't matter when you look at the strong long term performance over those years. I'm human and not infallible, but constantly studying and improving my returns. I can't have gotten to where I am via the pure luck many here want to believe. Some don't even believe what I've done, and for the life of me I don't know how they think it would benefit me to spend my time making things up instead of learning to continue to improve on where I'm at.

Even as I post my timing on transactions going forward, the point is not that others have my same exact portfolio or buy on the same date. The point is, if someone wishes to, absorb my methodology and either personally reject it, embrace it, or incorporate some aspects. But they have to do their own research and be independent of the preconceived notions here that hold people back from believing in themselves.

I think people have to get over their fear, which appears to be masked here by random insults. I see so much fear here that, had I let it, it would have held me back too.

Anyway, my portfolio is laid out to see what it looks like a year from now. It may ultimately prove to be great, mediocre, or horrible. I'm not to interested in the childish gotcha questions as are many that read the posts here, but in thoughtful dialogue leading to meaningful prosperity moving forward. Have you ever heard the expression, accomplished people look to the future with hope while others dwell on the past. Look to better your future circumstances and don't let your past indoctrination hold you back.

Maybe we should all give a bit of feedback when we ask a question, so it's a meaningful exchange.

:sharebeer

MSO4PRN
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by MSO4PRN » Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:52 am

ortho or derm?

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by Jags4186 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:27 am

Here's the issue.

You say you are worth $10 million. You have 15% of your net worth in stocks. That's $1.5 million. You claim to be averaging 30-40% returns. You've been investing for 20 years. $8,000 over 20 years at 30% (your low end) is $1.5 million. So either you are the worlds greatest investor and have turned $8k in $1.5 million, or you are a 15 year old who is trolling the forum.

:sharebeer

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slayed
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by slayed » Tue Jun 12, 2018 5:06 am

Is this trading happening in a taxable account? If so then where are the taxes due coming from when you realize a gain?

md&pharmacist
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by md&pharmacist » Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:25 am

MSO4PRN wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:52 am
ortho or derm?
Ha!

FP with employed providers and wife is PharmD.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by md&pharmacist » Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:27 am

slayed wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 5:06 am
Is this trading happening in a taxable account? If so then where are the taxes due coming from when you realize a gain?
No. But if it was, income and savings can cover.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by md&pharmacist » Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:37 am

Beezquimby, no special insights. Just the same information that is available to everyone...combined with a strategy in corrections - strategic buying (low) and cash reserves to take advantage of the opportunities that correction presents. I figure corrections and bear markets are there, why not utilize their advantages? Put differently, If I buy low and it goes even lower, it's better than buying high and arriving at the same bottom - I'll get back to break even and profitability faster.

Thanks.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by md&pharmacist » Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:47 am

Jags4186 wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:27 am
Here's the issue.

You say you are worth $10 million. You have 15% of your net worth in stocks. That's $1.5 million. You claim to be averaging 30-40% returns. You've been investing for 20 years. $8,000 over 20 years at 30% (your low end) is $1.5 million. So either you are the worlds greatest investor and have turned $8k in $1.5 million, or you are a 15 year old who is trolling the forum.

:sharebeer
I don't claim to be averaging 30-40%, I want help getting there. I'd say I'm just an average or below average investor (at this time I'm not even comfortable picking my own stocks). I'm 45 y.o. I don't have $1.5M in stocks, I have close to $1.6M in mutual funds, but they hold some cash positions so I'm not sure exactly how much is in stocks as it is a fluid number.

Thanks.

jacoavlu
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by jacoavlu » Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:08 am

I suggest you download a few years worth of past transactions and post them to a google doc. It wouldn’t take any longer than it’s taken you to type some replies. At least we’ll have some concrete stuff to talk about. Otherwise this is just a bunch of fluff.

HAWK23
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by HAWK23 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:23 am

Wow. A lot of haters in this thread! Why not just avoid clicking it if you're not interested! Sheesh!

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by HomerJ » Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:38 am

jacoavlu wrote:
Mon Jun 11, 2018 11:33 pm
What did you sell to purchase OPGIX? (It surprises me that I have to ask.)

And what was your last trade before that?
Quit asking questions like this. He can make up anything he wants. Let's just see how he does going forward.
The J stands for Jay

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by HomerJ » Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:40 am

md&pharmacist wrote:
Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:47 pm
triceratop wrote:
Mon Jun 11, 2018 7:35 pm
md&pharmacist wrote:
Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:54 pm
So my current holdings are with returns as of 6/11/2018):
This list is meaningless without the portion each holds in your portfolio. See earlier comments regarding the ability to construct an XIRR out of your initial portfolio + detailed trades.
Thanks for your feedback and civil discourse, moderator.

YTD 1-YEAR 3-YEAR 5-YEAR 10-YEAR / %-OF-TOTAL-FUND-HOLDINGS
1- VFIAX (Vanguard 500 Admiral) 4.83% 14.35% 10.94% 12.94% 9.13% / 12.25%
2- VQNPX (Vanguard Growth and Income) 5.42% 15.26% 10.90% 13.07% 8.63% / 6.73%
3- VWNDX (Vanguard Windsor Fund) 2.52% 11.44% 7.47% 10.74% 8.42% / 1.37%
4- UNPIX (Profunds Ultra International Fund) – 3.18% 9.81% 1.47% 5.53% – 5.85% / 6.73%
5- DXQLX (Direxion Nasdaq 100 Bull 2x) 22.44% 39.92% 29.89% 37.51% 18.74% / 14.92%
6- FBIOX (Fidelity Select Biotechnology) 9.52% 27.00% – 0.56% 15.15% 17.15% / 11.25%
7- FSPHX (Fidelity Select Healthcare) 14.57% 22.52% 4.86% 17.56% 15.44% / 11.58%
8- FSELX (Fidelity Select Semiconductors) 14.53% 30.63% 22.85% 27.04% 15.70% / 11.45%
9- OPGIX (Oppenheimer Global Opportunties) 6.32% 22.51% 22.79% 18.56% 12.26% / 12.89%
10- UGPIX (Profunds Ultra China) 18.37% 53.36% 10.99% 22.27% – 2.44% / 10.83%

All investors should choose their portfolio and portion of holdings according to their own needs and risk tolerance.
Thanks MD... How much do you have in these 10 funds, and how much do have in cash? My understanding is that you are about 50% cash, $1.5 million in those 10 funds, and $1.5 million in cash, is that correct?
Last edited by HomerJ on Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by HomerJ » Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:42 am

jacoavlu wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:08 am
I suggest you download a few years worth of past transactions and post them to a google doc. It wouldn’t take any longer than it’s taken you to type some replies. At least we’ll have some concrete stuff to talk about. Otherwise this is just a bunch of fluff.
Again, no.
The J stands for Jay

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Chan_va
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by Chan_va » Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:29 am

Folks, while skepticism is healthy, outright hostility is not. OP has made a claim, and offered to provide data to test his claim.

OP, we don't need detailed transaction history. It would be a lot simpler, and you wouldn't have to reveal too much personal data, if you started with a test portfolio. Let's start with this. Today, on 6/12 - you funded a portfolio of $100k with cash. Now, post your trades ahead of time (or within an hour of trade) on this 100k portfolio. Good luck.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by Snuffycuts99 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:38 am

While I find this thread somewhat interesting, it's pointless unless the OP provides current buys and sells. Saying you bought this and that months ago is easy...anyone can make up info. Not saying you are, but who knows. You need to post on the day you buy a position so it can be objectively followed. If he does that, I might tune it for the fun. Can't wait to see how this buying and selling works out in a bear market.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by ReformedSpender » Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:19 pm

While it is still to be determined whether or not MD is full of hot air, I don't understand why some folks on here can't comprehend that there are legitimate, successful short term investors/traders.

Unlike actively managed funds that have to abide by policies and internal hierarchy,individuals may operate under less red tape (shorter holds, Margin trading, etc) and hence, potentially, increase their odds on higher returns.

:beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by Pajamas » Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:23 pm

ReformedSpender wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:19 pm
While it is still to be determined whether or not MD is full of hot air, I don't understand why some folks on here can't comprehend that there are legitimate, successful short term investors/traders.
Of course it's possible. It's just that people don't tend to brag about it on Bogleheads. It's unseemly.

Anyone who thinks he is full of hot air about his high income and net worth must be assuming that when he uses "$" that it refers to the U.S. dollar rather than another country's dollar or even pesos. :happy

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by ReformedSpender » Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:24 pm

Pajamas wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:23 pm
ReformedSpender wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:19 pm
While it is still to be determined whether or not MD is full of hot air, I don't understand why some folks on here can't comprehend that there are legitimate, successful short term investors/traders.
Of course it's possible. It's just that people don't tend to brag about it on Bogleheads. It's unseemly.

Anyone who thinks he is full of hot air about his high income and net worth must be assuming that when he uses "$" that it refers to the U.S. dollars rather than another country's dollar or even pesos. :happy
No disagreement here
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by TN_Boy » Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:09 pm

Chan_va wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:29 am
Folks, while skepticism is healthy, outright hostility is not. OP has made a claim, and offered to provide data to test his claim.

OP, we don't need detailed transaction history. It would be a lot simpler, and you wouldn't have to reveal too much personal data, if you started with a test portfolio. Let's start with this. Today, on 6/12 - you funded a portfolio of $100k with cash. Now, post your trades ahead of time (or within an hour of trade) on this 100k portfolio. Good luck.
I vote against the hostility as well, but the OP made some strong claims, and frankly, based on his responses (or non-responses) to my questions and others, I don't think he knows what his overall portfolio returns have been over the last few years. And if you don't know your returns, how do you claim you have a successful investing model??

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by unclescrooge » Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:25 pm

livesoft wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:48 am
longinvest wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:02 am
I'm already annoyed by the constant active investing noise on our forum. I see no need to add day trading junk on top of it.
Ah, yes. But Bogleheads will help investors navigate between the day-trading Scylla and the leveraged Charybdis with ease. But that is only if they can first tie themselves to the 3-fund portfolio mast while the Sirens call "Slice-and-Dice! Slice-and-Dice!"
ROFL!

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by beezquimby » Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:41 pm

The reason you’re getting an attitude here is you started off with your manifesto purporting to have a knowledge of how different sectors can be timed and that you want to “maintain” a 30-40% average. Now you’re backtracking, LOL you’ve never even bought individual stocks? I have a sizeable portfolio of index funds, equities and sector funds, I’ve also traded options in the past, and I’ll go ahead and save you a lot of time and money, you aren’t going to be able to get a consistent 30-40% return without taking inordinate risk.



I don't claim to be averaging 30-40%, I want help getting there. I'd say I'm just an average or below average investor (at this time I'm not even comfortable picking my own stocks). I'm 45 y.o. I don't have $1.5M in stocks, I have close to $1.6M in mutual funds, but they hold some cash positions so I'm not sure exactly how much is in stocks as it is a fluid number.

Thanks.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by unclescrooge » Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:16 pm

md&pharmacist wrote:
Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:54 pm
So my current holdings are with returns as of 6/11/2018):

YTD 1-YEAR 3-YEAR 5-YEAR 10-YEAR
1- VFIAX (Vanguard 500 Admiral) 4.83% 14.35% 10.94% 12.94% 9.13%
2- VQNPX (Vanguard Growth and Income) 5.42% 15.26% 10.90% 13.07% 8.63%
3- VWNDX (Vanguard Windsor Fund) 2.52% 11.44% 7.47% 10.74% 8.42%
4- UNPIX (Profunds Ultra International Fund) – 3.18% 9.81% 1.47% 5.53% – 5.85%
5- DXQLX (Direxion Nasdaq 100 Bull 2x) 22.44% 39.92% 29.89% 37.51% 18.74%
6- FBIOX (Fidelity Select Biotechnology) 9.52% 27.00% – 0.56% 15.15% 17.15%
7- FSPHX (Fidelity Select Healthcare) 14.57% 22.52% 4.86% 17.56% 15.44%
8- FSELX (Fidelity Select Semiconductors) 14.53% 30.63% 22.85% 27.04% 15.70%
9- OPGIX (Oppenheimer Global Opportunties) 6.32% 22.51% 22.79% 18.56% 12.26%
10- UGPIX (Profunds Ultra China) 18.37% 53.36% 10.99% 22.27% – 2.44%

The first 4 are my obligatory safe bets for diversification purposes, I don't really like them in terms of returns. Hence my struggle with diversification. Of the crowd, I think UNPIX (Profunds Ultra International Fund) was my worst pick and the first one I plan to exchange into something stronger. OPGIX may be next. Torn about FBIOX.

The bottom 6 are the ones I really wanted putting diversification aside. The overall market has been lackluster so far YTD, at some point several of these holdings had approx. 70-105% 1-YEAR returns. These current annualized returns are probably around a low given the market weakness, so I am satisfied with the annual performance of the bottom 6 funds as I still believe in the sector relative strength. I may look for stronger funds within these sectors.

Next I'll be posting the funds I'm looking at seriously for my consideration for future trades. Preparation for corrections provide great opportunities to optimize your fund mix and percentage allocation into each fund. I would like to increase to about 20 total funds over time.
So you're leveraging up on trend-following?

Have you heard of the turtle traders?

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by sergeant » Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:35 pm

Hostility is not helpful. I'm looking forward to the OP learning to truly determine his rate of return and that his strategy won't return 30-40% every year. He will also learn that market timing is near impossible.


One of my favorite threads is by Market Timer. This could be fun!
Lincoln 3 EOW!

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by LadyGeek » Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:16 pm

I removed an off-topic post. As a reminder, see: General Etiquette
This is a moderated forum. We expect this forum to be a place where people can feel comfortable asking questions and where debates and discussions are conducted in civil tones.

...At all times we must conduct ourselves in a respectful manner to other posters. Attacks on individuals, insults, name calling, trolling, baiting or other attempts to sow dissension are not acceptable.
Please state your concerns in a civil, factual, manner.

That being said, let's help the OP follow-through on his quest to track his portfolio from this point forward.

We have precedent, see: A different approach to asset allocation, a 29+ page discussion by Market timer, Sep 16, 2007.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by goblue100 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:27 pm

LadyGeek wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:16 pm
We have precedent, see: A different approach to asset allocation, a 29+ page discussion by Market timer, Sep 16, 2007.
So is the appearance of this current thread a timing signal? :shock:
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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by Pajamas » Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:52 pm

goblue100 wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:27 pm
So is the appearance of this current thread a timing signal? :shock:
Well, if you look at a long term chart of DXQLX, it certainly looks like it could be making a top. Notice that the price changes in 2018 are different than any before, dramatically volatile, like it just can't make up its mind. Two quick up and downs and now a slower rise. Could get interesting.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by HomerJ » Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:39 pm

TN_Boy wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:09 pm
Chan_va wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:29 am
Folks, while skepticism is healthy, outright hostility is not. OP has made a claim, and offered to provide data to test his claim.

OP, we don't need detailed transaction history. It would be a lot simpler, and you wouldn't have to reveal too much personal data, if you started with a test portfolio. Let's start with this. Today, on 6/12 - you funded a portfolio of $100k with cash. Now, post your trades ahead of time (or within an hour of trade) on this 100k portfolio. Good luck.
I vote against the hostility as well, but the OP made some strong claims, and frankly, based on his responses (or non-responses) to my questions and others, I don't think he knows what his overall portfolio returns have been over the last few years. And if you don't know your returns, how do you claim you have a successful investing model??
This.

If you read his earlier posts in other threads, he is VERY sure that he's smarter than the average bear (which is normal for doctors), and that we're all clueless accepting "just" the market return...

He has no idea what his returns have actually been... Here's a post I made responding to one of his other threads.
HomerJ wrote:
md&p wrote:Left to start my private practice 2/2007 at which time I transferred my employer account to my personal retirement accounts. At that point, got extremely lucky because what I was reading made me move out of stock funds and into bond funds so I had no losses in the 2007-2009 disaster.

Seeing that a bull market just ended and the Dow dropping to about 6500 in 2009, just watched the next bull market very closely until I decided to jump in heavily in late 2011
The market starting in 2/2007 had fully recovered by 2011. $10,000 invested in Feb 2007 was worth around $10,000 in late 2011.

You did make money from the bonds all that time, a nice 35% over 4.5 years.

So it definitely was an okay decision, but I doubt you beat a standard 50/50 portfolio over those 4 years. Because guess what... The buy and hold investor was buying each month with his 401k paycheck deposits, buying more stock at lower prices in 2008, 2009, 2010, all of which appreciated substantially by late 2011. Some of us even rebalanced during that time, selling bonds to buy stocks to keep the portfolio at 50/50. All that money invested in stocks was up far more than your bonds by late 2011.

You were sitting on the sidelines the entire time, and COMPLETELY missed the low prices. You didn't start buying back in until the stock market was right back to the same point where you left it. That doesn't sound like someone who can easily time the market.

You certainly weren't making 20% a year during that time period. What you were doing, is growing your business, and killing it professionally, and saving tons of money (and investing in real estate? Great timing there!). All of which should be commended. But you are probably mistaken if you think you've been a stock market guru for the past 20 years. It sounds more like you've made some good (but probably risky) investments during this current bull market (the past 7 years) which have paid off well for you.

I'm not saying you're not smart and I'm not saying you're not skilled. But don't discount some luck in there. Be careful. Easy to make money in a raging bull market (Even us boring index people have made like 13% a year since late 2011 without spending hours/day on research). Good luck to you.
md&p has been doing well so far investing in leveraged funds during a bull market. Very risky, but it's paid off. That doesn't make him an investing genius.

But maybe he is... They do exist...

But I doubt it. And the reason why I doubt it is he STILL posts that he did great during the last recession even after I posted the above. So he appears incapable of learning even when we point out his mistakes. He seems way too sure of himself.

But I could be wrong.

I am curious to see what he does going forward. Like most doctors, he thinks his genius in medicine is easily transferable to finance. If you just study enough, you can beat the market! We here know that is rarely true... I guess we'll see how he does.
The J stands for Jay

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by md&pharmacist » Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:05 pm

LadyGeek wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:16 pm
I removed an off-topic post. As a reminder, see: General Etiquette
This is a moderated forum. We expect this forum to be a place where people can feel comfortable asking questions and where debates and discussions are conducted in civil tones.

...At all times we must conduct ourselves in a respectful manner to other posters. Attacks on individuals, insults, name calling, trolling, baiting or other attempts to sow dissension are not acceptable.
Please state your concerns in a civil, factual, manner.

That being said, let's help the OP follow-through on his quest to track his portfolio from this point forward.

We have precedent, see: A different approach to asset allocation, a 29+ page discussion by Market timer, Sep 16, 2007.
LadyGeek, appreciate it. Anyone who gets so emotional about investment techniques/differences in opinion is likely to also get emotional when making their own financial/investment decisions and we all know the dangers there.

I think it is absolutely NECESSARY AND EXCELLENT that you bring up the post by Market timer in the context of this post. A lot of the posts here make me concerned about people's general understanding of risk and risk mitigation techniques - I certainly hope they read my disclosure very carefully. Comments like market investing 15% of your NW is not going to move the needle, you have too much cash, the bashing of prepaying debt due to an assumption that you will always outpace mortgage interest plus inflation by putting more and more into the markets, or the criticism of my investment diversification into my business and potential other vehicles (ie. rare art) are red flags that risk/diversification is not well understood. Perhaps someone with expertise can at some point start a string on risk mitigation, I think we call all benefit from a better understanding. Again if stock market Armageddon is once again upon us, I will still be fine and everyone else should consider risk tolerance when deciding if an when to invest, what to invest in (or not) so that they will be fine too.

Regarding the post by market timer:

Summary: Econ grad student applies Mortgage Your Retirement theory at the top of the last bull market, starting around 2x leverage, loses $210K of borrowed money, and is forced is to sell what's left of his portfolio at S&P 821 in November 2008. The complete wipeout results in a reflective period where he recollects the circumstances that led him to adopt this strategy, some of which will be included in a book. He spends five weeks in Asia and begins writing about how risk and progress can be framed. Returning to the US, he slashes his expenses, finds several ways to increase income, earns 914% on the IRBLTG Fund, and pays off all his high interest credit card debt. Net worth tracker continues to be updated.

There is a lot to be learned here. While appreciated this student used 2x leverage (and that can be both in the form of leveraged funds or margin borrowing as mentioned earlier in this string), the same exact predicament would have occurred had this poster done this with a 3 fund indexed portfolio! 2008-2009 saw a drop in the DOW from roughly 14,5K to about 6.5K, or a drop of over 50%, as a lot of people I spoke to took about this much of a hit - I exit major recessions and depressions, so I have no frame of reference (did not lose anything in 2008) for my own portfolio (you'll just have to believe me or believe I'm a 15 year old troll, I guess). Put differently, if another 2008 happened and I did not exit and my funds were hammered, I would not lose as large a percentage of NW as many Bogleheads that have noted they are around 50% or more exposed to the market.
Anyway, like anyone else had market timer been able to hold on, his portfolio would more than have recovered today. I have argued against investing using loaned money. Once there is a margin call or you run out, you lose your choice to discover. Choices are critical to any decisions in life. Note that there is a very big difference between leveraged and over-leveraged. Market timer was over-leveraged, I am not given my assets and income. Market timer chose to buy when euphoria was clearly rampant. Too young unfortunately (and no, I'm not 15!)

I have a very different take on the leveraged example you posed, I'm sure, than you and many readers here, but we can respectfully disagree. My personal opinion is that it makes the market timing argument critical - I have argued many times that a new bull market is very different than a mid stage cycle than a late cycle. That's why I only buy after corrections stabilize, much lower risk of being blind sided by another 2008, 1929. That's why I also see euphoric rises as an opportunity to sell high/re-balance because they are always followed by some sort of correction or bear. That's why I'm not a fan of the "stay the course" statement. That's why I'm willing to accelerate selling when major aberrations occur - people here are correct - no one wants to own DXQLX (or any other mainstream investment) in a 2008, 1929 market. I don't believe stay the course allows for that, or allows people to halt dollar cost averaging into a 2007 top. I do understand, with dollar cost averaging and riding out turmoil, historic market returns of around 8% are still attainable and noble. Not what I want, and not what some others want.

So I find psychology very interesting in this string. People are so entrenched and/or indoctrinated they post very interesting things, even saying things about what i do that I don't do. Contrary to popular opinion, I am not day/short term trading mutual funds - almost all of the funds that I have owned for over a year, I have owned for several years and have never sold any portion since the day I purchased them. Not all, obviously I take advantage of peaks and corrections but people have created a very skewed view of my strategy, desperately wanting to prove me wrong rather than looking for something to learn, whether it is something that can be implemented (ie small tech fund addition to a 3 fund portfolio), and/or what not to do.

I'm learning from everybody commenting here and I have tough skin, I feel both saddened (for them) and amused by off the wall comments, definitely not angry. I learn a lot from what they didn't say, that in itself is a statement.

I also know there are people here who don't post (or PM me) or are very subtly commenting due to the hostility. They are the ones that want to learn, and I can learn from. They are why I'm here. They are the ones thinking okay, they want to crucify this guy if he doesn't hit 30% long term. So if he only hits 20 or 25% long term, they understand the difference over the next 40 years versus market returns will be in the millions. The angry critics likely have not even considered this. Is it really about if I can hit my stated goals, or for them about what is best for their own portfolios? I'm learning you can stick an opportunity two inches from someone's nose and it can go right over their head - it must be bragging, lying, pure luck, impossible, rocket science, whatever it may be. There will obviously those that won't believe what I buy/sell in real time when I post, not sure why they're here. They have a lot of market indexed 3 fund dollar cost averaged threads that will lower their blood pressure, and they are free to believe what they read there. I also understand that many want passive and routine. No problem, this post isn't for them.

Again, wishing everyone health, emotional well-being and financial prosperity.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by md&pharmacist » Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:53 pm

Homer,

Genius is still name calling! Since I no longer want to pick my own stocks and want to attain out-sized fund returns, I have also been called naive in this same string!

So if you all still want to call me names, I think the most accurate is confused! :?

Besides if you keep calling me "not a genius", when I have never used that term....makes we wonder what you're really thinking. To clarify, I do NOT believe I am a genius and this is the only context where I will use that term. I have already called myself below average in this very string, and others have concurred I am accurate in my assessment.

OK Homer, you're right. I was dumb to be out of the markets in 2008-2011 where I bothered to put my money into something as ridiculous as starting my business and real estate ventures.

And why keep any cash on reserve anyway. My monthly expenses are only approaching $100,000.

Bought a fancy car too in that time frame as you have pointed out before. I mean, it's ridiculous to use your money for enjoyment, it should be nowhere other than the stock market. Heck the money I spent on food between 2008-2011 should have been invested in the market - I lost out. What was I thinking? :oops:

I understand what you all are saying, if I only attain a 29% long term return I am a complete failure and indexed dollar cost investing wins. I can live with that. See, I'm just not as smart as you all.

Homer, I give you credit for 1- believing I own my fund portfolio and 2- believing I'm not a 15 year old troll.

Still planning to show my upcoming investments.

:)

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by md&pharmacist » Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:18 am

hawkfan55 wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:24 am

I hope the OP is as dedicated to his patients as he is to his financial and investing pursuits. If yes, his patients are fortunate. :D
The patients are the precise reason I have not bothered with the RE in FIRE (Financial Independence Retire Early). I struggle very much with the term Physician on FIRE. Guess one can still volunteer, but that's not the undertone.

People are infinitely more important than finances.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by HomerJ » Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:23 am

md&pharmacist wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:53 pm
Homer,

Genius is still name calling! Since I no longer want to pick my own stocks and want to attain out-sized fund returns, I have also been called naive in this same string!

So if you all still want to call me names, I think the most accurate is confused! :?

Besides if you keep calling me "not a genius", when I have never used that term....makes we wonder what you're really thinking. To clarify, I do NOT believe I am a genius and this is the only context where I will use that term. I have already called myself below average in this very string, and others have concurred I am accurate in my assessment.

OK Homer, you're right. I was dumb to be out of the markets in 2008-2011 where I bothered to put my money into something as ridiculous as starting my business and real estate ventures.

And why keep any cash on reserve anyway. My monthly expenses are only approaching $100,000.

Bought a fancy car too in that time frame as you have pointed out before. I mean, it's ridiculous to use your money for enjoyment, it should be nowhere other than the stock market. Heck the money I spent on food between 2008-2011 should have been invested in the market - I lost out. What was I thinking? :oops:

I understand what you all are saying, if I only attain a 29% long term return I am a complete failure and indexed dollar cost investing wins. I can live with that. See, I'm just not as smart as you all.

Homer, I give you credit for 1- believing I own my fund portfolio and 2- believing I'm not a 15 year old troll.

Still planning to show my upcoming investments.

:)
You obviously didn't understand a single thing I wrote.

I'm not sure if I should try again.

I would suggest you read the wiki and some of the excellent books listed here

https://www.bogleheads.org/RecommendedReading.php

I would think you are too smart not to understand our skepticism. Have you really done zero reading? Do you not understand that long-term 30%-40% annual returns are extremely rare?

Warren Buffet himself only managed 30% a year in his early years (which made him the richest man in the world), yet you proclaim that 30% a year is the MINIMUM you are shooting for.

And then you MUST realize that we've seen your type before. We've had plenty of people come in here, tell us we're dumb to buy and hold, and tell us that it's easy to pick winning funds, and winning sectors, and get out before corrections happen. Did you really think you were the first?

None of those people could predict the future going forward... Sure, they told us about all the great moves they made in the past, but none of them could do it going forward.

Because predicting the future is hard.

You see why we are skeptical? Are we wrong to be skeptical? Do you believe everything you read on the Internet? Should we just believe whatever you say? If you tell us in March or April about how you KNEW the January correction was going to happen, and it was easy to anticipate, should we just believe you?

Or are we wise to be skeptical of some random Internet poster?

I appreciate this thread... Keep it updated when you make changes. I'd especially like to read about WHY you make certain changes.

Again, to be clear, you have $1.5 million invested, and $1.5 million sitting in cash because you believe a crash is coming correct?

I wish you the best of luck.
The J stands for Jay

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by md&pharmacist » Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:01 am

Based on the ECB's comments this morning, I do not believe Europe is ready for serious consideration. Still weakness, however, given the ECB is still buying bonds and holding interest rates steady, they are a year or two behind the US and should ultimately see prosperity improving at some time over the next 12-18 months.

Also, don't focus in on just my leveraged holdings. Most of my holdings are not leveraged funds. A lot of talk here about DXQLX, so far up a very healthy 24% YTD, if this pace continues, extrapolated it could be up over 50% in 2018. Nasdaq is tech heavy, and I see tech continuing to be one of the strongest and largest sectors of the US economy. Chinese tech/internet also appears to be very strong.

Several of my funds have at some point had 1 year returns in excess of 70-100% in strong years, including 2017.

I'll be posting some new funds of interest I'm looking at, soon.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by cusetownusa » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:00 am

Whats your IRR of your entire portfolio (Stocks, Bonds, Cash) over the last 12 months, 3 years, etc.? Wouldn't that be more important than how one of your many funds performed well. That would be like me bragging about how my Amazon stock has gone up x% over the last few years even though its just a portion of my total stock fund and doesn't represent what my total portfolio did.

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by bberris » Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:14 am

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:23 am
...

Again, to be clear, you have $1.5 million invested, and $1.5 million sitting in cash because you believe a crash is coming correct?

I wish you the best of luck.
Maybe the cash is there to offset the risk of the leveraged ETF. Genius!

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Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by md&pharmacist » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:04 pm

cusetownusa wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:00 am
Whats your IRR of your entire portfolio (Stocks, Bonds, Cash) over the last 12 months, 3 years, etc.? Wouldn't that be more important than how one of your many funds performed well. That would be like me bragging about how my Amazon stock has gone up x% over the last few years even though its just a portion of my total stock fund and doesn't represent what my total portfolio did.
Not sure if you saw it earlier in the string but I already posted all the funds.

Yes, I would like to see you discussing Amazon and other great performers because I would take a company (in my case funds) with good fundamentals into consideration. I don't need all of your holdings to consider one of them. Honestly, if one of your holdings is in an under-performing sector I would NOT want to consider it. Maybe I just think very differently, to me it's logical to only consider quality investments, I do not care for companies or funds with poor fundamentals.

Nonetheless, I posted all of my funds, even the ones I purchased for diversification's sake (not just my favorites).

:happy

TN_Boy
Posts: 485
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2009 12:51 pm

Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by TN_Boy » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:18 pm

md&pharmacist wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:01 am
Based on the ECB's comments this morning, I do not believe Europe is ready for serious consideration. Still weakness, however, given the ECB is still buying bonds and holding interest rates steady, they are a year or two behind the US and should ultimately see prosperity improving at some time over the next 12-18 months.

Also, don't focus in on just my leveraged holdings. Most of my holdings are not leveraged funds. A lot of talk here about DXQLX, so far up a very healthy 24% YTD, if this pace continues, extrapolated it could be up over 50% in 2018. Nasdaq is tech heavy, and I see tech continuing to be one of the strongest and largest sectors of the US economy. Chinese tech/internet also appears to be very strong.

Several of my funds have at some point had 1 year returns in excess of 70-100% in strong years, including 2017.

I'll be posting some new funds of interest I'm looking at, soon.
This is a waste of my time, but I'll try once more:

1) How do you track *portfolio* returns. Truly, nobody cares in the least if you had a fund or two that went up a lot last year. What did the portfolio do? Do you even track and understand portfolio returns?

2) What are your portfolio returns using your techniques over the last few years (hint, I could answer that question for myself, as could a lot of people asking you skeptical questions)

3) What is your portfolio? Are you including cash? Has it varied significantly over the years, in particular, the stock/bond/cash ratio.

It appears to me you are intentionally avoiding answering the above three questions which several people have asked. And without answering those questions, your results cannot be evaluated.

cusetownusa
Posts: 319
Joined: Thu Mar 27, 2014 9:54 am

Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by cusetownusa » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:33 pm

md&pharmacist wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:04 pm
cusetownusa wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:00 am
Whats your IRR of your entire portfolio (Stocks, Bonds, Cash) over the last 12 months, 3 years, etc.? Wouldn't that be more important than how one of your many funds performed well. That would be like me bragging about how my Amazon stock has gone up x% over the last few years even though its just a portion of my total stock fund and doesn't represent what my total portfolio did.
Not sure if you saw it earlier in the string but I already posted all the funds.

Yes, I would like to see you discussing Amazon and other great performers because I would take a company (in my case funds) with good fundamentals into consideration. I don't need all of your holdings to consider one of them. Honestly, if one of your holdings is in an under-performing sector I would NOT want to consider it. Maybe I just think very differently, to me it's logical to only consider quality investments, I do not care for companies or funds with poor fundamentals.

Nonetheless, I posted all of my funds, even the ones I purchased for diversification's sake (not just my favorites).

:happy
Its impossible to determine your irr based on your fund postings.

If I assumed you owned all of those funds for the past 3 years with no new contributions and 50% of your invested assets in cash.

Your YTD return is 5.68%, your 1 year return is 13.7%, and 3 year average return is 6.99%

craimund
Posts: 67
Joined: Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:39 pm
Location: Virginia

Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by craimund » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:58 pm

cusetownusa wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:33 pm
md&pharmacist wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:04 pm
cusetownusa wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:00 am
Whats your IRR of your entire portfolio (Stocks, Bonds, Cash) over the last 12 months, 3 years, etc.? Wouldn't that be more important than how one of your many funds performed well. That would be like me bragging about how my Amazon stock has gone up x% over the last few years even though its just a portion of my total stock fund and doesn't represent what my total portfolio did.
Not sure if you saw it earlier in the string but I already posted all the funds.

Yes, I would like to see you discussing Amazon and other great performers because I would take a company (in my case funds) with good fundamentals into consideration. I don't need all of your holdings to consider one of them. Honestly, if one of your holdings is in an under-performing sector I would NOT want to consider it. Maybe I just think very differently, to me it's logical to only consider quality investments, I do not care for companies or funds with poor fundamentals.

Nonetheless, I posted all of my funds, even the ones I purchased for diversification's sake (not just my favorites).

:happy
Its impossible to determine your irr based on your fund postings.

If I assumed you owned all of those funds for the past 3 years with no new contributions and 50% of your invested assets in cash.

Your YTD return is 5.68%, your 1 year return is 13.7%, and 3 year average return is 6.99%
Not hard to beat those numbers.
"When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose"-Bob Dylan 1965. "When you think that you've lost everything, you find out you can always lose a little more"-Dylan 1997

onourway
Posts: 1201
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 3:39 pm

Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Post by onourway » Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:26 pm

Everything posted in this thread is meaningless until you divulge your exact cash position. You've been called out on this before, and you keep ignoring the issue in this thread.

IMO this thread should be closed unless the entire data set required to calculate your actual returns is posted in full.

Locked