U.S. stocks in free fall

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
MotoTrojan
Posts: 11259
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2017 7:39 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MotoTrojan »

thangngo wrote: Tue May 22, 2018 9:59 am So back to the conviction of some bogleheads above to stay out of the market and pray for a big crash. Is S&P 500 rate of return not enough for you? Do you want more? How much more? And how do you plan to achieve higher return? With market timing?
100% micro-cap value :). Or maybe TSLA.
User avatar
pokebowl
Posts: 583
Joined: Sat Dec 17, 2016 6:22 pm
Location: Alaska

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by pokebowl »

Appears it is going to be one of those days, thanks to EMEA. :beer Futures are all over the place this morning.
motorcyclesarecool
Posts: 956
Joined: Sun Dec 14, 2014 6:39 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by motorcyclesarecool »

I was reading a thread about German bonds for Italian investors and wondering to myself what in that scenario would stop a national bank run, and consequent hammering of the entire Eurozone. I have a feeling we’re going to see Treasury yields crumble from that flight to safety.
Understand that choosing an HDHP is very much a "red pill" approach. Most would rather pay higher premiums for a $20 copay per visit. They will think you weird for choosing an HSA.
User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 32250
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:17 pm
Location: USA
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 »

This bunny market just keeps hopping, and hopping, and hopping.....Kinda of like that pink battery bunny.
The Sensible Steward
dknightd
Posts: 3727
Joined: Wed Mar 07, 2018 10:57 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by dknightd »

I still hope it takes its dump before I retire
Retired 2019. So far, so good. I want to wake up every morning. But I want to die in my sleep. Just another conundrum. I think the solution might be afternoon naps ;)
User avatar
gmaynardkrebs
Posts: 2339
Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2008 10:48 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by gmaynardkrebs »

dknightd wrote: Tue May 29, 2018 10:34 am I still hope it takes its dump before I retire
So does everyone, which is why it is so unlikely.
Engineer250
Posts: 1082
Joined: Wed Jun 22, 2016 1:41 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Engineer250 »

motorcyclesarecool wrote: Tue May 29, 2018 5:03 am I was reading a thread about German bonds for Italian investors and wondering to myself what in that scenario would stop a national bank run, and consequent hammering of the entire Eurozone. I have a feeling we’re going to see Treasury yields crumble from that flight to safety.
I hope not. Yield on 10-Y is about the only thing I've been paying attention to. I was so excited to see it finally go over 3, and now dropping like a rock down to 2.8. I hate that inflation appears to be picking up and bank savings interest is still total crap. If inflation picks up, my wages will definitely lag but it looks like my savings and emergency fund will as well.
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.
Jags4186
Posts: 8198
Joined: Wed Jun 18, 2014 7:12 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Jags4186 »

In other news bitcoin is up 5% today!
FrugalFrida
Posts: 100
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 5:39 am
Location: Sweden

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by FrugalFrida »

I put in a buy order for Vanguard US 500 index fund :greedy it takes a few days to process though.
feh
Posts: 2011
Joined: Sat Dec 15, 2012 10:39 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by feh »

Holy cow - the yield on US treasuries (both 2 year and 10 year) fell about 15 basis points today.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/treas ... 2018-05-29
User avatar
TomatoTomahto
Posts: 17158
Joined: Mon Apr 11, 2011 1:48 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TomatoTomahto »

Big day — I have to add another Tesla or two to the fleet (using Livesoft’s Rule).
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
livesoft
Posts: 86079
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:00 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by livesoft »

In the end, nothing I owned dropped even 2%.
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.
fujiters
Posts: 548
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:17 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by fujiters »

Not US, but harvested losses in VXUS today.
“The purpose of the margin of safety is to render the forecast unnecessary.” -Benjamin Graham
columbia
Posts: 3023
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2013 5:30 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by columbia »

It’s funny how international drops even further on days like this; not sure funny is the correct word, of course.
jebmke
Posts: 25476
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 2:44 pm
Location: Delmarva Peninsula

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jebmke »

livesoft wrote: Tue May 29, 2018 5:04 pm In the end, nothing I owned dropped even 2%.
and bonds did quite well even though everyone knows that interest rates have nowhere to go but up.
Don't trust me, look it up. https://www.irs.gov/forms-instructions-and-publications
motorcyclesarecool
Posts: 956
Joined: Sun Dec 14, 2014 6:39 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by motorcyclesarecool »

Can someone explain to me again why international bonds, whether hedged or not?
Understand that choosing an HDHP is very much a "red pill" approach. Most would rather pay higher premiums for a $20 copay per visit. They will think you weird for choosing an HSA.
User avatar
TomatoTomahto
Posts: 17158
Joined: Mon Apr 11, 2011 1:48 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TomatoTomahto »

livesoft wrote: Tue May 29, 2018 5:04 pm In the end, nothing I owned dropped even 2%.
The reason I got to invoke your rule re Tesla was that some unvested RSUs dropped around 5%. I know, I know, I shouldn’t track unvested RSUs.
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
drk
Posts: 3946
Joined: Mon Jul 24, 2017 10:33 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by drk »

livesoft wrote: Tue May 29, 2018 5:04 pm In the end, nothing I owned dropped even 2%.
You don't own any VEA, VWO, IEFA, or IEMG?
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
livesoft
Posts: 86079
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:00 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by livesoft »

Of those, I own VEA. I see a different price quote than when I posted earlier, so it was -1.99% then, but Vanguard says now -2.01%. I stand sit corrected.
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.
H-Town
Posts: 5911
Joined: Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:08 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by H-Town »

2018 YTD has been a good time for accumulators for sure.
Time is the ultimate currency.
averagedude
Posts: 1772
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 3:41 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by averagedude »

Been watching alot of financial news over the years. Half of the experts say the stock market is going to go down. The other half say the stock market is going to go up. They are all correct.
JustinR
Posts: 1451
Joined: Tue Apr 27, 2010 11:43 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by JustinR »

drk wrote: Tue May 29, 2018 8:51 pm
livesoft wrote: Tue May 29, 2018 5:04 pm In the end, nothing I owned dropped even 2%.
You don't own any VEA, VWO, IEFA, or IEMG?
Why is VWO down 2.21% but the mutual fund equivalents (VEMAX, VEIEX) only down 1.28%?
protagonist
Posts: 9279
Joined: Sun Dec 26, 2010 11:47 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by protagonist »

averagedude wrote: Tue May 29, 2018 9:31 pm Been watching alot of financial news over the years. Half of the experts say the stock market is going to go down. The other half say the stock market is going to go up. They are all correct.
No, they are all wrong. None of them have a clue. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2005 ... -an-expert
User avatar
munemaker
Posts: 4338
Joined: Sat Jan 18, 2014 5:14 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by munemaker »

JustinR wrote: Tue May 29, 2018 9:44 pm
drk wrote: Tue May 29, 2018 8:51 pm
livesoft wrote: Tue May 29, 2018 5:04 pm In the end, nothing I owned dropped even 2%.
You don't own any VEA, VWO, IEFA, or IEMG?
Why is VWO down 2.21% but the mutual fund equivalents (VEMAX, VEIEX) only down 1.28%?
The value of the mutual fund is calculated daily based on prices of the underlying assets. The value of the ETF is set by the market. The two don't necessarily agree.
drk
Posts: 3946
Joined: Mon Jul 24, 2017 10:33 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by drk »

JustinR wrote: Tue May 29, 2018 9:44 pm Why is VWO down 2.21% but the mutual fund equivalents (VEMAX, VEIEX) only down 1.28%?
Traders expected more losses to come in the underlying stocks.
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
User avatar
gmtret
Posts: 139
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2007 6:27 pm
Location: N. Carolina

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by gmtret »

Meh... this is nothing in the scheme of things. Establish a diversified portfolio and add to it as you can. Ignore the fluctuations and add to it as you can.

History reports that patience and steadfastness will out.
"The most beautiful thing we can experience is the mysterious. It is the source of all true art and science." | - Albert Einstein
Cantrip
Posts: 116
Joined: Fri Oct 16, 2015 7:21 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Cantrip »

drk wrote: Tue May 29, 2018 11:07 pm
JustinR wrote: Tue May 29, 2018 9:44 pm Why is VWO down 2.21% but the mutual fund equivalents (VEMAX, VEIEX) only down 1.28%?
Traders expected more losses to come in the underlying stocks.
Interesting. I tax loss harvested yesterday by selling VEMAX (Vanguard Emerging Markets Fund down 1.28% end of day, I expected it to be lower) and buying SPEM (Spider Emerging Markets ETF bought when down 2%) in another account. Did I make a 0.7% gain by random chance?
User avatar
ruralavalon
Posts: 26353
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 9:29 am
Location: Illinois

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ruralavalon »

motorcyclesarecool wrote: Tue May 29, 2018 5:29 pm Can someone explain to me again why international bonds, whether hedged or not?
No.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link: Bogleheads® investment philosophy
david1082b
Posts: 371
Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:35 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by david1082b »

motorcyclesarecool wrote: Tue May 29, 2018 5:29 pm Can someone explain to me again why international bonds, whether hedged or not?
Not sure why bonds are being referenced on a "stocks in freefall" thread, but for the heck of it let's look at Vanguard Total International Bond BNDX versus Total Bond Market BND since BNDX started in 2013: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D

BNDX is flat this year while BND is down a couple of %. If you want to avoid international bonds because of perceived negatives for them, you'd probably want to avoid USA bonds too, since USA bonds can also have negatives. Plenty of people ask "why any bonds at all?" International bonds might be a worse or better bet than USA bonds. Stocks might also be better or worse than bonds, but stocks also have potential negatives, so "why stocks" can also be a question you can ask. Do you even need stock risk to meet your financial goals?
motorcyclesarecool
Posts: 956
Joined: Sun Dec 14, 2014 6:39 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by motorcyclesarecool »

My remark was tongue in cheek. Yesterday’s “freefall” was brought about by a flight to safety from certain Eurozone countries. Equities plunged, and Treasuries surged. It seems reasonable that international bonds are well correlated to domestic stocks in our global system, reducing their value in diversification. Which is at the nub of why international bonds. It seems reasonable that Eurozone troubles are not over. Also emerging market bonds appear shaky. Why seek stability in an asset positively correlated to stocks?
Understand that choosing an HDHP is very much a "red pill" approach. Most would rather pay higher premiums for a $20 copay per visit. They will think you weird for choosing an HSA.
lostdog
Posts: 5368
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 1:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lostdog »

Interesting year so far. We keep crossing 500k in investments. I lost count on how many times we went back and forth. We just keep investing as scheduled. A good year to keep accumulating.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
lukestuckenhymer
Posts: 274
Joined: Wed May 30, 2018 11:53 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lukestuckenhymer »

Cantrip wrote: Wed May 30, 2018 6:44 amInteresting. I tax loss harvested yesterday by selling VEMAX (Vanguard Emerging Markets Fund down 1.28% end of day, I expected it to be lower) and buying SPEM (Spider Emerging Markets ETF bought when down 2%) in another account. Did I make a 0.7% gain by random chance?
Isn't this a wash sale?
User avatar
pokebowl
Posts: 583
Joined: Sat Dec 17, 2016 6:22 pm
Location: Alaska

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by pokebowl »

lostdog wrote: Wed May 30, 2018 11:39 am Interesting year so far. We keep crossing 500k in investments. I lost count on how many times we went back and forth. We just keep investing as scheduled. A good year to keep accumulating.
I see you are following the voyager investment strategy.

Image
User avatar
grabiner
Advisory Board
Posts: 35307
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 10:58 pm
Location: Columbia, MD

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by grabiner »

pokebowl wrote: Wed May 30, 2018 1:16 pm
lostdog wrote: Wed May 30, 2018 11:39 am Interesting year so far. We keep crossing 500k in investments. I lost count on how many times we went back and forth. We just keep investing as scheduled. A good year to keep accumulating.
I see you are following the voyager investment strategy.

Image
Voyager Select, actually. Vanguard doesn't automatically promote you on the day you go over, although it will happen eventually, or you can contact Vanguard as soon as you make it.
Wiki David Grabiner
User avatar
grabiner
Advisory Board
Posts: 35307
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 10:58 pm
Location: Columbia, MD

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by grabiner »

lukestuckenhymer wrote: Wed May 30, 2018 11:54 am
Cantrip wrote: Wed May 30, 2018 6:44 amInteresting. I tax loss harvested yesterday by selling VEMAX (Vanguard Emerging Markets Fund down 1.28% end of day, I expected it to be lower) and buying SPEM (Spider Emerging Markets ETF bought when down 2%) in another account. Did I make a 0.7% gain by random chance?
Isn't this a wash sale?
That's up to the IRS to determine; are these two funds substantially identical? A common opinion (not to be treated as tax advice; ask your tax advisor) is that two funds tracking the same index (two S&P 500 funds) are substantially identical, while two funds tracking different indexes in the same market segment are not. It is easier to defend this position with emerging markets indexes, as different providers disagree on which markets qualify as emerging.
Wiki David Grabiner
User avatar
fetch5482
Posts: 1722
Joined: Fri Aug 15, 2014 4:55 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by fetch5482 »

Wow, no reply here today. We're getting used to this!
(AGE minus 23%) Bonds | 5% REITs | Balance 80% US (75/25 TSM/SCV) + 20% International (80/20 Developed/Emerging)
User avatar
220volt
Posts: 204
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:33 pm
Location: USA

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by 220volt »

Market hasn't gone anywhere this year. It seems to be hoarding energy like a loaded spring before exploding in yet to be seen direction.
"If I had only followed the advice of financial analysts in 2008, I'd have a million dollars today, provided I started with a hundred million dollars" - Jon Stewart
User avatar
JoMoney
Posts: 16260
Joined: Tue Jul 23, 2013 5:31 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by JoMoney »

Wake me after we've either reached a new high, or fall through the year to date low.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
david1082b
Posts: 371
Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:35 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by david1082b »

220volt wrote: Thu May 31, 2018 8:05 pm Market hasn't gone anywhere this year. It seems to be hoarding energy like a loaded spring before exploding in yet to be seen direction.
2.5% return so far this year to be pedantic http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D
User avatar
ruralavalon
Posts: 26353
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 9:29 am
Location: Illinois

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ruralavalon »

david1082b wrote: Fri Jun 01, 2018 12:25 am
220volt wrote: Thu May 31, 2018 8:05 pm Market hasn't gone anywhere this year. It seems to be hoarding energy like a loaded spring before exploding in yet to be seen direction.
2.5% return so far this year to be pedantic http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX) total return is up 2.59% year to date (5/31/18), which is 6.22% if annualized. Not so shabby.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link: Bogleheads® investment philosophy
User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 32250
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:17 pm
Location: USA
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 »

david1082b wrote: Fri Jun 01, 2018 12:25 am
220volt wrote: Thu May 31, 2018 8:05 pm Market hasn't gone anywhere this year. It seems to be hoarding energy like a loaded spring before exploding in yet to be seen direction.
2.5% return so far this year to be pedantic http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D
I'm actually up 6.04% YTD. I'd take this every year from here on out if I could.
The Sensible Steward
bgf
Posts: 2085
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 8:35 am

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bgf »

willthrill81 wrote: Sat Jun 02, 2018 10:26 am
david1082b wrote: Fri Jun 01, 2018 12:25 am
220volt wrote: Thu May 31, 2018 8:05 pm Market hasn't gone anywhere this year. It seems to be hoarding energy like a loaded spring before exploding in yet to be seen direction.
2.5% return so far this year to be pedantic http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D
I'm actually up 6.04% YTD. I'd take this every year from here on out if I could.
are you overweight nasdaq and small cap? individual stocks? very nice YTD return!
“TE OCCIDERE POSSUNT SED TE EDERE NON POSSUNT NEFAS EST"
User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 32250
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:17 pm
Location: USA
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 »

bgf wrote: Sat Jun 02, 2018 11:42 am
willthrill81 wrote: Sat Jun 02, 2018 10:26 am
david1082b wrote: Fri Jun 01, 2018 12:25 am
220volt wrote: Thu May 31, 2018 8:05 pm Market hasn't gone anywhere this year. It seems to be hoarding energy like a loaded spring before exploding in yet to be seen direction.
2.5% return so far this year to be pedantic http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D
I'm actually up 6.04% YTD. I'd take this every year from here on out if I could.
are you overweight nasdaq and small cap? individual stocks? very nice YTD return!
I'm a trend follower, and I was heavy in emerging markets for a while but have been in mostly large cap growth and mid-cap growth this year.
The Sensible Steward
MJW
Posts: 724
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2016 7:40 pm
Location: Pacific Northwest

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MJW »

willthrill81 wrote: Sat Jun 02, 2018 3:04 pm I'm a trend follower, and I was heavy in emerging markets for a while but have been in mostly large cap growth and mid-cap growth this year.
What does trend following entail for you?
User avatar
Mr. Potter
Posts: 1048
Joined: Wed Mar 18, 2015 7:50 pm
Location: Undisclosed Lake, MN

Anyone buying today?

Post by Mr. Potter »

I have been slowing building my cash position up to purchase more CD's but with the US Market set to open down over 1% I'm tempted to pick up a little more TSM instead. I'm still within my AA bands of +-5% either way. Just thinking back to my risk assessment and the question of what would you do if stock prices dropped. (sell,buy,hold) Yes, I know the Market could drop again tomorrow or go right back up. One thing I do know for sure is I can purchase more shares of TSM today than I could yesterday.
User avatar
bottlecap
Posts: 6906
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2007 10:21 pm
Location: Tennessee

Re: Anyone buying today?

Post by bottlecap »

I don’t have time to watch the market. Just put it regular and you’ll be fine. Lots of other things to worry about.

JT
truenorth418
Posts: 637
Joined: Wed Dec 19, 2012 6:38 am

Re: Anyone buying today?

Post by truenorth418 »

I'll wait a couple of days so I don't "buy" the Q2 dividend.
md&pharmacist
Posts: 262
Joined: Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:05 pm

Re: Anyone buying today?

Post by md&pharmacist »

Wait until after the next correction (>10%) stabilizes if you want to buy. It's the summer, a good likelihood a good opportunity will come.
User avatar
dwickenh
Posts: 2304
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 8:45 pm
Location: Hills of Eastern Tennessee

Re: Anyone buying today?

Post by dwickenh »

1% is not actionable for me, I am reinvesting dividends and interest every month.

Dan
The market is the most efficient mechanism anywhere in the world for transferring wealth from impatient people to patient people.” | — Warren Buffett
User avatar
ReformedSpender
Posts: 568
Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2018 1:24 pm
Location: Stone's Throw from Vanguard

Re: Anyone buying today?

Post by ReformedSpender »

md&pharmacist wrote: Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:08 am Wait until after the next correction (>10%) stabilizes if you want to buy. It's the summer, a good likelihood a good opportunity will come.
Which could be 12%+ higher than today's price, meaning you "missed out" by not purchasing shares when you had the means to do so

:beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.
Locked