Post Diehards VI "Reports" Here

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stratton
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Post Diehards VI "Reports" Here

Post by stratton » Mon Jun 11, 2007 5:37 pm

I'm not at Diehards VI, but would like to hear any good stories, rumors etc. Anyone attending who happens to be reading the web site please post anything interesting in this thread. 8)

Paul

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Just Back from the Banquet

Post by Laura » Mon Jun 11, 2007 9:07 pm

stratton,

The Boglehead dinner just finished. My vote for the quote of the day comes from Taylor Larimore who said about finance

The more you learn the more you realize you don't need to know.

The highlight of the day was a two hour discussion with Jack Bogle in the morning. He clarified the basic outline of his personal asset allocation confirming that he is still near 40/60 (stocks/bonds) but of course, this isn't necessarily the correct allocation for others. He stressed that asset allocation decisions should be based on the "economics of your personal situation." This relates to the need to take risk and ability to take risk discussion seen on this forum frequently.

Jack said he is thinking about adding up to 20% of his equity in international if he gets around to making the change. He is so busy that he rarely focuses on managing his own portfolio.

Rick Ferri, Bill Schultheis, Bill Bernstein, Sue Stevens, and Ed Tower also participated at the head table and signed books during the afternoon hours. Of course, Jack Bogle signed books as well. The panelists will be doing a Q&A session in the morning for the final event.

During the dinner, Jack Bogle and Bill Bernstein had a lively discussion of the current economic situation in the US and the world. They talked about strengths and weaknesses in the US economy along with opportunities and challenges that face us today.

I am sure others will be along with more details.

Laura
The views presented are my own and not necessarily those of the Department of State or the U.S. Government.

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Queen of the Bogleheads

Post by NORTON » Mon Jun 11, 2007 9:30 pm

Laura wrote:stratton,

The Boglehead dinner just finished. My vote for the quote of the day comes from Taylor Larimore who said about finance

The more you learn the more you realize you don't need to know.

The highlight of the day was a two hour discussion with Jack Bogle in the morning. He clarified the basic outline of his personal asset allocation confirming that he is still near 40/60 (stocks/bonds) but of course, this isn't necessarily the correct allocation for others. He stressed that asset allocation decisions should be based on the "economics of your personal situation." This relates to the need to take risk and ability to take risk discussion seen on this forum frequently.

Jack said he is thinking about adding up to 20% of his equity in international if he gets around to making the change. He is so busy that he rarely focuses on managing his own portfolio.

Rick Ferri, Bill Schultheis, Bill Bernstein, Sue Stevens, and Ed Tower also participated at the head table and signed books during the afternoon hours. Of course, Jack Bogle signed books as well. The panelists will be doing a Q&A session in the morning for the final event.

During the dinner, Jack Bogle and Bill Bernstein had a lively discussion of the current economic situation in the US and the world. They talked about strengths and weaknesses in the US economy along with opportunities and challenges that face us today.

I am sure others will be along with more details.

Laura
Laura did an excellent job of summing up day one ... the one piece of info she neglected to post is that she was awarded the title of "Queen of the Bogleheads" by Taylor and Mel ... cheers to Queen Laura!

Stan
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Post by Adrian Nenu » Mon Jun 11, 2007 10:06 pm

Good job Laura and glad to hear that everyone's having a good time.

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Good info

Post by cfs » Mon Jun 11, 2007 10:43 pm

Good info from the QOB. Long Live The QOB. Thanks.
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Post by White Coat Investor » Mon Jun 11, 2007 11:06 pm

Only the most diehard of diehards would log in from the diehard conference! Good to hear from you Laura from those of us too cheap, too lazy, too slow, or too busy to attend.
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Post by mikenz » Mon Jun 11, 2007 11:14 pm

...or too far away

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Post by Grandpaboys » Tue Jun 12, 2007 1:46 am

Thanks
Good Day | GP

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Post by tuffy88 » Tue Jun 12, 2007 9:10 am

Great to hear what is happening there for those of us who are far away. Keep the reports coming.

Charles

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Re: Just Back from the Banquet

Post by zhiwiller » Tue Jun 12, 2007 9:55 am

Laura wrote:He is so busy that he rarely focuses on managing his own portfolio.
That is a very thought-provoking quote.

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Re: Just Back from the Banquet

Post by Alex Frakt » Tue Jun 12, 2007 10:31 am

zhiwiller wrote:
Laura wrote:He is so busy that he rarely focuses on managing his own portfolio.
That is a very thought-provoking quote.
It's a need thing. His bond holdings alone throw off enough income to provide for his needs and wants. Given sufficient income, a portfolio somewhere in the realm of the reasonable, and the extreme uncertainties of returns for various asset classes over a fairly short expected investing lifetime, there really isn't much point to twiddling with a few percentage points here or there.

In other words, when you are rich and old, asset class tweaking becomes just a hobby. Bogle obviously feels he's got more important things to do than play with his holdings.

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Post by Prokofiev » Tue Jun 12, 2007 10:46 am

" Bogle obviously feels he's got more important things to do than play with his holdings"


Changing to 20% foreign would take . . . maybe, 60 seconds and several clicks of the mouse at his VG website. Not having the "time" is not a reasonable excuse.
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Post by Alex Frakt » Tue Jun 12, 2007 11:09 am

You have to sell something to buy something, so upping one part of your portfolio necessarily demands a review of all your holdings. In addition, most of Bogle's holdings are in a taxable account. So you have to add capital gains considerations to the mix.

Among those consideration are whether it even makes sense to sell. A 78 year old may want to think twice before taking a 15% haircut to move money from one asset class to another when his estate gets a free basis step-up.

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Post by bilperk » Tue Jun 12, 2007 11:31 am

Another possibility, in my mind, is that he really doesn't care if he has international or not. He has been saying for a long time that international is not necessary in his opinion to a successful portfolio. Why does anyone think he has changed his mind?

If I remember right, he made a statement in the Q&A at Las Vegas that he felt international had had exceptionally high returns in the past few years, and folks shouldn't be in a rush to get in now. That was a year ago and things have gotten even higher.

Maybe he is just tired of every interview asking him about international investing and realizes that too many folks hang on his every word instead of truly absorbing his wisdom.

best,

Bill
Bill

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Jack Bogle discussion at Diehards VI

Post by jamacq » Tue Jun 12, 2007 11:54 am

I just got back from Diehards VI and had a great time. The first thing I can report is that this is a great group of people; but you all already know that...I'm relatively new to the group having only been lurking for about a year.

I was fascinated listening to Jack Bogle speak for about two hours yesterday. Some of the key points that I took away are listed below. They are by no means a thorough review of what he said, just some personal notes that I took and found interesting.

-In response to the subject of changing one's allocation due to current valuations, he noted that maybe six times in a lifetime the market is way over or under priced. "Markets make us want to do the wrong thing." He stated that he believed it was ok to change one's allocation when one of these conditions happens (again very rarely) and suggested perhaps when the S&P PE is >=35. Today's PE is around 18 and doesn't warrant change.

-Discussing the importance of expenses, he noted that there is a growth expectation for the market of around 7% over the next 10 years. "Why pay someone 2%" to get that 7%.

-Regarding stock/bond allocation he talked about allocation of bonds by your age or perhaps age-10 years. He mentioned that it depends on how much you have and that a 20 year old just starting probably does not need 20% bonds.

-In talking about active vs passive at Vanguard, he discussed that many of the active Vanguard funds are basically index funds. He mentioned Windsor II in this regard.

-REIT is in an "incredible bubble" that is beginning to burst now. "I'd be very careful about REITs."

-Doesn't personally like Total Bond Index because it includes Mortgage securities (GNMA, etc) which are not really bonds. Perfers Intermediate Bond Index but he concluded that it really is an economically benign decision.

-Recommended within the bond allocation (1/3 Municipal (in taxable), 1/3 Interm Term, 1/3 Limited or Short Term).

-Mentioned that if you aren't going to look at your funds for 20 years or more, go with long term bonds to get the better yield.

-Prefers Short Term Bond fund over money market fund.

-Value Tilting: He answered a question about this and indicated that he doesn't agree with it and recommended not getting "overcommitted to small value". He stated that everyone is interested in small value now because it has been doing well.

-ETFs: He likened ETFs to "the right religion but the wrong church".

The above in no way represents the key points of his discussion, just the ones that were of enough personal interest to me that I wrote down some notes. I'm also sure that I am not doing any justice to his words as he is very eloquent. If you ever have a chance to hear him speak, it will be worth your time and trouble. He is a fascinating speaker.

Thank you so much to the Washington Diehards for pulling off this great meeting. It was such a thrill to me to be able to talk at length with Mel, Taylor, Rick Ferri and Ed Tower. They are incredibly knowledgable, approachable and just plain fun to talk with.

Jeff
Last edited by jamacq on Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by Prokofiev » Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:14 pm

" He has been saying for a long time that international is not necessary in his opinion to a successful portfolio. Why does anyone think he has changed his mind? "

My thoughts exactly. There can be lots of valid reasons he doesn't want to add Int stocks to his portfolio at this point in time. But not having the time to make the change is not one of them. What peaked my interest/concern was this :

" Jack said he is thinking about adding up to 20% of his equity in international if he gets around to making the change. He is so busy that he rarely focuses on managing his own portfolio . . . Of course, Jack Bogle signed books as well . . . During the dinner, Jack Bogle and Bill Bernstein had a lively discussion . . ."
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Post by alec » Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:30 pm

I laughed pretty hard when Jack said that something along the lines of:

Someone had told Jack that he was the only one in the mutual fund industry that a verifiable heart.

It was also interesting to learn that Vanguard started some other sector funds [along with the energy and healthcare funds] that were closed after a few years, and that in the early 1980's Vanguard had ventured into Real Estate partnerships that soon after collapsed.

edited to add - meeting Taylor and Mel was also a treat. :wink:

- Alec (ats5g on other forum)

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Post by harland » Tue Jun 12, 2007 1:23 pm

Just wanted to say (first off) that it was great meeting all the Diehards/Bogleheads for the first time. It's nice to put some faces to the names.

I also wanted to add that I felt that Jack seemed to be of the opinion that sometimes we're "overanalyzing" a bit when it comes to diversification or allocation issues concerning our portfolios.

This morning's Q&A session was awesome! Laura, Rick Ferri, Taylor, Mel, Bill Bernstein, Sue Stevens, Michael LeBoeuf, and Ed Tower all participated. A lot of ground was covered from the possibly shrinking equity and small value premiums, rebalancing issues, and allocations to International and REITs, to correlations between different asset classes, credit risk for long-term bonds, safe withdrawal rates, and international real estate.

Hopefully people can fill in the details. I'm still trying to absorb all the information in my notes...

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Post by mickeyd » Tue Jun 12, 2007 2:02 pm

Thanks for the great summary. Sorry I could not attend.
-Doesn't personally like Total Bond Index because it includes Mortgage securities (GNMA, etc) which are not really bonds. Prefers Intermediate Bond Index
Wow! This is the main reason that I moved from TBM to IB several years ago. Glad Jack is following my lead. :roll:
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Morning Q&A

Post by Laura » Tue Jun 12, 2007 2:36 pm

Here are some of the items I wrote down in my notes from the panel with Taylor, Rick Ferri, Mel, Sue Stevens, Bill Bernstein, Michael, and Ed Tower.

Q: With money market yields so high and bond yields so low is it better to keep our bond allocation in bonds or cash (money markets)?

Rick: You are either a market timer or a passive investor. There is no way to market time interest rates so pick something and stick with it. Short term bonds can be substituted for a money market account on a permanent basis not as a result of the unusual yield curve.

Sue Stevens: Jack Bogle uses Limited Term Tax Exempt bond fund as his money market account.

Q: On the forum people frequently write things like "if you have a large account then add small value" so the question is What is a large account?

Mel: Since you must meet the minimum of $3k per fund and each fund should be equal to at least 5% of your portfolio the minimum required to qualify as a "large account" would be $60k.

Q to Bill Bernstein: I use one of your model portfolios. How do I know if your model portfolio recommendation changes?

Bill: Like everyone else I have no idea how any of the model portfolios will perform. What is critical is sticking with your investment plan. Bill continued by saying that yes, his own portfolio has changed over time. He now owns less stock, REITS, and emerging markets but this is based on getting older and having more assets leaving him with less need to take risk. This makes his portfolio more conservative. For any change you make "do it slowly."

Q: There is much discussion of slice and dice vs Total Market investing. Which asset classes do you really need and which are just fooling yourself?

Bill: Total Stock Market, Intl, and short term bonds should get you at least 70% of the way there. He then mentioned emerging markets and REIT.

Q: Should tax considerations impact your asset allocation?

Bill: A bunch of the math gurus were talking about this last night. The only time this might matter is for people who have only a Roth and an IRA. In this case it could possibly make a slight difference. For most people it doesn't matter. For you to take advantage of this you need to guess which will be the best performing asset class, take the time to calculate tax impact, and it doesn't apply to those with most assets split between taxable and traditional tax deferred accounts (IRAs and 401ks). Since there is a lot of guessing involved it probably doesn't matter much.

Sue Stevens: Start with your broad asset allocation between stocks and bonds, then look at which funds can complete your asset allocation then look at where to hold them. Try not to trigger large taxes if you need to reposition something.

Q: Some people recommend including your pension or social security as part of your asset allocation. What do you recommend?

There are two different options, you can count them as bonds or just use them to reduce the amount of money your portfolio should generate.

Sue Stevens: It is OK to look at the present value (PV)of this cash flow stream but you should also look at the psychological factors. Sue does both. She will calculate the PV then see how that would impact the asset allocation to make sure her client remains psychologically comfortable with the asset allocation.

(Example provided by me to clarify: If she recommended a 60/40 asset allocation but someone had a pension that would be equivalent to the 40% bond allocation, would the client be comfortable with 100% equities in the investments? Probably not so the best choice is where the client feels most comfortable.)

Q: Is the small cap premium or the value premium worth holding these asset classes in taxable for high tax bracket investors?

Bill: No, the advantage is probably not worth it. Tax efficiency is critical.

Rick: ETF structures change the tax implications of these funds but since no one knows whether small and value will add a premium in the long run it probably doesn't matter if you hold them or not.

Q: Is it necessary to invest in international stocks?

Rick: The benefit of international is currency diversification so yes.

Bill: Currency diversification is important and is beneficial so yes.

Q: Could the panel members please say how much they recommend for international and which funds they would use?

Taylor: 30% of equity in international. FTSE World in a taxable account, TISM in a tax advantaged account.

Rick: 30% of equity in international. 40% Europe, 40% Pacific, 20% Emerging market. He prefers the FTSE World fund for a one fund option.

Sue Stevens: 15% of the total portfolio with a tilt toward international small and value.

Bill: 35% of equity, there are many ways to invest including Tax Managed Intl, overweighting value is OK.

Michael: 20% of equity, TISM

Ed Tower - look at dividend yield

Mel: 20% of equity, TISM

Q: How much REIT would you recommend?

Taylor: 5% of equity and they could be overvalued.

Rick: 10% of equity and his research shows they are not overvalued.

Mel: 5-10% of equity

Sue Stevens: 5% or less of the entire portfolio. She recommends her clients directly invest in real estate.

Bill: It really depends on the client.

Michael: 10% of equity

Ed Tower: Direct investment in real estate.

Q: Do you prefer to invest in global funds (US and intl together in one fund) or separate out the different asset classes by holding US and international separately?

Taylor: It probably doesn't matter in the long run.

Rick: Separate asset specific funds (US and Intl)

Q: How frequently should we rebalance and what method do you recommend?

Rick: In my book I recommend annual rebalancing using bands like 5/25 meaning stock/bond allocation out of alignment by 5% or one fund by 25% but studies have shown it is not that critical. Once every few years is probably fine.

Taylor: Annual rebalancing

Mel: bands

Sue Stevens: This really varies if you are in retirement or still accumulating assets. Bands are good but look at cash thrown off by the portfolio and take that into account. Also look at gains and losses in taxable.

Bill: Rebalance every 3-5 years.

Michael: Uses the need/ability system. He uses withdrawals to maintain his asset allocation but also has a dollar limit on the amount of stock he will hold.

Ed Tower: Rebalance every January

Q: M* shows a 3 year Standard Deviation for a fund. Wouldn't 20 years be better?

Rick: Yes

Q: The correlation between US and international seem to be increasing. Why is it happening and what can we do about this?

Bill: There is nothing that we can do because the markets are becoming more global. Correlations change over time so all you can do is diversify.

Rick: Diversification doesn't help during the crash when everything declines but it is very helpful during the recovery stage.

Q: If returns are expected to be lower in the coming years is 4% still a safe withdrawal rate?

This question then led to a discussion of fixed immediate annuities. Bill Bernstein said that delaying Social Security is about the best fixed annuity you can find and he recommends spending other retirement accounts in an effort to delay Social Security.

Q: Turning back to real estate and property, do you consider your residence as part of you real estate investment holdings?

Bill: Your house is a residence, not an investment.

Q: Do we need to invest in international REITs?

Rick: Not needed

Bill: Not needed

Q: Do you recommend long term or short term bonds?

Rick: Short term.

Q: What percentage of our bond allocation should be in TIPS (either the fund or individual TIPS)?

All panelist said it depends on your personal situation. There was no consensus on this topic. If you only need to withdraw 2% per year from your portfolio and TIPS are guaranteeing 2.7% then the choice is easy, go heavy into TIPS.

Q: Do you recommend international bond investments?

Bill: There are two kinds - hedged and unhedged. Do not use unhedged. If you must hold these bonds use hedged bonds but they are not really needed. There are no really good funds or ETFs available in this asset class.

Rick: Total Bond Market holds about 3% Yankee bonds which are bonds issued by intl companies in US dollars.

Q: Will tax rates go up and what should we do about it?

The general consensus is that tax rates are not going lower and there is a good chance that they will go higher once the current tax cuts expire. Everyone should look at converting traditional IRAs to Roths while the tax rates are low. Even if it means taking the tax pain now paying 25% today is probably a better long term strategy than paying higher rates in the future.

I was unable to write down all the details and might have gotten some of this wrong so hopefully others who attended will come along with additions and corrections.

Laura
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Jack Bogle clarification

Post by Laura » Tue Jun 12, 2007 2:45 pm

Two things to clarify:

Jack Bogle is still working and, as such, is still adding to his investments. Also, Jack is far more focused on spending his time with his family or writing, researching, and speaking on behalf of the small investor than he is in managing his own portfolio. It may only take 30 minutes to make a change but for him he places a higher value on these other activities. As he says, he is satisfied with "enough."

I have to say thanks to Jack for focusing more on others and less on his own portfolio. All of the attendees at the Diehard meeting benefited from Jack's willingness to take time to come and speak with us. In typical Jack fashion, he met with senior policy leaders while in DC to lobby on behalf of all of the individual investors.

Thanks Jack.

Laura
The views presented are my own and not necessarily those of the Department of State or the U.S. Government.

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Post by Russell » Tue Jun 12, 2007 2:51 pm

It was a fun couple of days. It was great to meet so many of the Diehards and see that we're all real live people. I especially appreciated Taylor and his quiet good humor!

I jotted down a few quotes during the Q&A sessions that might be worth sharing....

Monday with Jack Bogle:

quoting Truman:
  • "I'm not giving 'em hell. I'm telling the truth and they think it's hell!"
on asset allocation:
  • "Don't peek!"

    "I don't have the time, and if I did I would probably screw it up!"

    "The evidence on balance suggests that I should have about 20% in international... but I don't know if I'll ever get around to it."
on young investors and bonds:
  • "Do I think that a 20 year old investing his first $300 whould have 80% in stocks and 20% in bonds? NO! It's $300 for God's sake!"
on the markets and business:
  • "The stock market is a huge distraction from the business of investing"
    "In the long run, business will bail the market out of its worst mistakes."
Tuesday with the panel:

Bill Bernstein on making changes to your portfolio:
  • "The trick is, when you do it, you do it very slowly."
Rick Ferri on rebalancing:
  • "Rebalancing is a little over-rated"
Bill Bernstein when asked whether TIPS should be 40 or 60% of your bond allocation:
  • "For God's sake, don't take these numbers all that seriously!"
Bill Bernstein on diversification and higher correlations during crashes:
  • "Diversification really saves your bacon after the market crash, not during the market crash.."

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Post by Russell » Tue Jun 12, 2007 2:57 pm

Hi Laura --

Thanks for sharing your comprehensive notes. Amazing that you managed to collect all of those while being a panelist -- Good luck with the rest of your busy week!

I also liked Bill's more elaborate response to the REIT question:
  • Q: How much REIT would you recommend?
    A: Between a little less and a lot less than you owned seven years ago!

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Post by mickeyd » Tue Jun 12, 2007 2:58 pm

Wow...Thanks Laura. This thread is a keeper.

You really take amazing notes. Was this discussion recorded or vidoetaped?
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Photos from Monday...

Post by harland » Tue Jun 12, 2007 3:14 pm

Apologies as I am a terrible photographer, but I thought you might enjoy some of these...

Image

"The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing" authors table. Taylor is standing, Michael LeBoeuf is sitting to Taylor's right, and Mel is sitting in the foreground.

Image

Jack "raising hell" with Mel by his side.

Image

Rick Ferri signing copies of his books and handing out his paper "New Concepts in Index Categorization" with excerpts from "The ETF Book" (due to be published).

Image

From left to right: Taylor, Mel, Sue Stevens (from Morningstar), and Bill Bernstein.

Image

Laura, the new "queen" of the Bogleheads (with her own Jack Bogle bobblehead!) flanked by Taylor and Mel.

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cfs
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Good info and good photos

Post by cfs » Tue Jun 12, 2007 3:28 pm

Good info, good photos.

Laura you look great.
Taylor you look in good shape.
Mel you are the only Marine I know with a pony tail.
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

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Post by stratton » Tue Jun 12, 2007 3:38 pm

Rick Ferri signing copies of his books and handing out his paper "New Concepts in Index Categorization" with excerpts from "The ETF Book" (due to be published).
Did Rick mention when/if that paper would appear on his web site?

Paul

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Re: Morning Q&A

Post by Drain » Tue Jun 12, 2007 3:51 pm

Hi, Laura. It was nice chatting with you during the break before Monday's dinner. I want to make just a quick correction to your report.
Laura wrote:Bill continued by saying that yes, his own portfolio has changed over time. He now owns less stock, REITS, and emerging markets but this is based on getting older and having more assets leaving him with less need to take risk.
No, I think he's made the changes as a result of his perception of valuations. I don't recall the exact wording he used during the Q&A, and it's possible that he didn't make himself entirely clear then. I spoke with him prior to the Q&A, though, and I'm pretty sure I understood his position.
Darin

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Thanks Harland for the pics!

Post by Michele in TX » Tue Jun 12, 2007 4:51 pm

Thanks Harland for the pictures from the conference. I'm in the middle of a move and couldn't get to it. It's great to see the people who have helped me with their financial assessments so often.

It's interesting that there are about 30 replies to the posting & close to 1,300 folks reading them.

I'm guessing there are many of us who aren't able to attend and who appreciate reading some of the notes remotely.

:D

Michele

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Post by rschreit » Tue Jun 12, 2007 7:38 pm

I want to comment on something from Laura's very fine notes:
Bill Bernstein said that delaying Social Security is about the best fixed annuity you can find and he recommends spending other retirement accounts in an effort to delay Social Security.
Yes, delaying receipt of SS makes sense from an investment standpoint if you're in good health, and it may have other advantages based on the technical design of Social Security:

1. A non-working spouse gets more SS survivor protection if the working spouse delays SS, because the potential widow/widower's benefit is a percentage of the worker's benefit. Of course, this advantage is greater if the worker is in poor health!

2. If you first spend down some of your non-SS assets, you MAY later pay less tax on your SS benefits, depending on your total retirement income picture. Lower- and middle-income workers may want to run some numbers on this before applying for SS.
Last edited by rschreit on Tue Jun 12, 2007 9:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Laura honored at Diehards VI

Post by Taylor Larimore » Tue Jun 12, 2007 8:56 pm

Hi Bogleheads:
After posting on the Morningstar forum, I discovered this Boglehead Conversation which included Laura's very considerate descriptions of what occurred in D.C.. She did not give you the full story. This is a copy of my Morningstar post:
"Laura honored at Diehards VI

Hi Diehards:
I have just returned from our Diehards VI Reunion in Washington D.C.

One of the highlights of the Reunion was when Laura was honored for her contributions to the two forums. She received a Bogle Bobblehead as an Award for her contributions and a standing ovation by all the 117 Bogleheads in attendence.

Author and financial advisor Bill Schultheis was unable to attend the last day. Laura was selected as his replacement. Needless to say, Laura answered questions as expertly as anyone on the "Panel of Experts."
Best wishes.
Taylor

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Notes from Mr. Bogle's wisdom

Post by Taylor Larimore » Tue Jun 12, 2007 9:14 pm

Hi Bogleheads:
I made a few notes (paraphrased) from Mr. Bogle's many jewels of wisdom:
Many of us spend too much time overthinking about our portfolios.
If you use tactical allocation, use it sparingly. Never get out of an asset class completely.
Don't imagine that Price/Earnings figures are always accurate. There is a lot of "junk" in the accounting.
It is important to realize how little you know.
Don't try to outsmart the market. It almost always knows more than you do.
----------------------------------------------------

I wish everyone on this forum could have had the opportunity we enjoyed meeting each other and learning how to invest successfully.

Ed and Patti Rager and the D.C. Chapter organized a flawless Reunion that everyone there will remember forever.

Thank you and best wishes.
Taylor

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watling
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Post by watling » Tue Jun 12, 2007 9:45 pm

This is a wonderful thread and I thank all who have contributed!
As a 68 YO nervous-newbie investor I have found this site a godsend (Laura should be proclaimed Saint Laura), and this thread exemplifies the spirit of Bogleheads. Here are a few "sound bites" from above that particularly hit home for me:

Diversification doesn't help during the crash when everything declines but it is very helpful during the recovery stage.

Monday with Jack Bogle:
quoting Truman:
"I'm not giving 'em hell. I'm telling the truth and they think it's hell!"

on asset allocation:
"Don't peek!"
"I don't have the time, and if I did I would probably screw it up!"

on the markets and business:
"The stock market is a huge distraction from the business of investing"
"In the long run, business will bail the market out of its worst mistakes."

Tuesday with the panel:
Bill Bernstein on making changes to your portfolio:
"The trick is, when you do it, you do it very slowly."

Bill Bernstein on diversification and higher correlations during crashes:
"Diversification really saves your bacon after the market crash, not during the market crash.."


Your words truly reduce the quaking inside deez ol' boots.

Thank you,
Watling

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Post by newbee » Tue Jun 12, 2007 10:22 pm

I consider myself extremely fortunate to have attended Diehards VI for the past two days. While I echo the previous posts from others, I would emphasize that this group was extraordinarily fortunate to have had Mr. Bogle speak to us as well as participate in an extended question and answer period. No one quite delivers the "Diehard" investment philosophy better than the master himself.

Mr. and Mrs. Rager and the many volunteers who made this event so memorable are to be commended. They did a remarkable job. Thank you so much!

For anyone who even "thinks" that they may be a Diehard at heart, I strongly recommend attending a future reunion yourself if at all possible. It is the equivalent of Diehard nirvana.

retmd

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West Coast

Post by Jazztonight » Tue Jun 12, 2007 10:25 pm

And my suggestion is: next year schedule the Diehards VII in California!

San Francisco might be an appropriate location. 8)
"What does not destroy me, makes me stronger." Nietzsche

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Post by avram53 » Tue Jun 12, 2007 10:28 pm

Jeff, Harland, Russell, Laura, Taylor and all others,

Nice jobs with your reports from Diehards VI. In particular, Laura, your detailed notes are amazing and very helpful to those who could not be there. I think some of us must just be shaking their heads in amazement as they read your notes. Thank you.

Unfortunately, this event was not taped.

I didn't take any comprehensive notes, but thoroughly enjoyed seeing friends from last year and meeting many new people. It's very special to be able to relax and chat with each other and the authors, like Rick and Bill, in small casual groups in between the formal sessions and sometimes late into the evening. The authors were all giving of their time and down to earth, as was Laura.

Old Town Alexandria, VA, has a 17 block old style main drag called King Street which goes down to the water (view of DC in the distance) and was the perfect setting for a stroll with balmy night time air, many eateries, clubs, people to watch, jazz music, bikers, tourists and shops. Several of us ate at a New Orleans style restaurant. (Also, after dinner, got to smoke a "smooth" cigar with one hand and consume a rocky-road ice cream cone with the other! Now that's livin!)

Ed and Patti Rager, who coordinated the hotel and other arrangements deserve tremendous thanks. Each attendee received copies of Jack's newest book and "Jack Bogle for President" buttons along with helpful maps, attendee lists and other information. Thank you so much Ed and Patti!

And to Mel and Taylor, who initiated these annual gatherings in the first place and continue to coordinate the speakers and discussions, thank you for bringing us together. The format works very well. Perhaps some attendees will offer suggestions for future meetings that might add to an already special experience. But the real attraction, I think, is to meet Jack, the authors and "each other".

This event was special because it was NOT tied in with a money show, like last year, and felt more relaxed and involving and to ourselves.

With appreciation, Ave
(Life is good, appreciate every day! Simplicity in investing works for me.)

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Jazzman
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POST REPLY

Post by Jazzman » Wed Jun 13, 2007 1:26 am

MY THOUGHTS ON THE REUNION: SLAM DUNK--GRAND SLAM--AWESOME!!!

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Diehards VI

Post by Mel Lindauer » Wed Jun 13, 2007 7:51 am

Greetings from Philly:

It was so great to spend time again with friends like Jack Bogle, Taylor and Pat Larimore, Michael and Elke Le Boeuf, Bill Bernstein, Rick Ferri, Bill Schultheis, Sue Stevens, Ed Tower and so many of my old Diehard friends. It was also great to get the chance to meet our newly-crowned "Queen of the Bogleheads", Laura, and so many other Diehards for the first time. This is my sixth national Diehards get-together, and I can assure you that all the Diehards I've had the opportunity to meet have been genuinelly nice folks and real decent human beings.

Ed (the detail man) and Patti (the idea person) Rager, our Diehards VI local coordinators, did an absolutely outstanding job in the planning and execution of a flawless event. They've worked with Taylor and I for over a year to pull it off, and we owe them both a huge debt of gratitude.

Thanks, too, to all those who volunteered for the 101 chores that needed to be done. And special thanks to FamDoc, who brought along CDs he'd make with pictures from Diehards V in Las Vegas. He offered them free to everyone in attendance. That's the kind of thing that makes the Diehards Community so very special; everyone contributes whenever and wherever they can.

This was our largest crowd ever (117), and we've decided not to grow future events beyond that number in order to keep the more intimate feeling that only a smaller crowd can offer. So, when we make the announcement for Diehards VII, I suggest you not procrastinate, or you may find that you're too late and that we already have a full house.

Again, I hope everyone enjoyed the event as much as I did.

Best regards to all,

Mel

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Dallas?

Post by SoonerSunDevil » Wed Jun 13, 2007 8:36 am

Mel,

I think Diehards VII should be held somewhere in the Great Midwest or Southwest. What's wrong with Dallas? You know, there are some people who live in "flyover" country that are also Diehards! :)

John

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Hello Diehards

Post by haban01 » Wed Jun 13, 2007 10:07 am

Diehards VI was a great sucesss!

Everything was perfect, but I caught some bad weather at Washington National and my flight was delayed for about 3.5 hours, after a then 3 hour drive home I arrived home at 4am. Yes, tired but well worth it!!

I ran into Norma Ann, her daughter and wonderful grand-daughters in the airport. I sounded as if Norma's flight had been canceled and she was going to have to wait it out at the airport. The rest of her family was going to be lucky enough to get out about 1/2 hour after I was (11:30pm).

Bad thunderstorms and lighting was prevlent in the area!!

It was so nice to meet Laura! She is the "Queen" of the Diehards. We probably had about 50% who were attending their first Diehards reunion.

I will write more later today! Back to bed!

8)
Eric Haban | | "Stay the Course" | "Press on Regardless" | | Wisconsin Bogleheads Chapter Coordinator

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Taylor Larimore
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More on Diehard IV

Post by Taylor Larimore » Wed Jun 13, 2007 10:51 am

Hi again:
I enjoyed so many wonderful exchanges of friendship at Diehards VI that it is impossible to name them all.

One of my favorite Bogleheads is Norma Ann, a lovely grandmother who brought her daughter and two granddaughters. The strikingly beautiful granddaughters are in their late teen's or early 20s. Norma explained to me that she learned so much from the Bogleheads that she wanted to be sure that her entire family had the same opportunity.

It was not lost on the "children" when Mr. Bogle made a specific reference to the fact that most of his generation never learned that "cost matters." He thinks the younger generation of computer literate investors will be more aware of indexing and low costs than their elders.

Unfortunately, I did not get a chance to thank Mel publicly for the outstanding job he did acting as our Master of Ceremonies. Mel kept the proceedings on course, without a hitch. We are all very grateful for his continuing leadership.

I also want to thank each of the Bogleheads who came to me with their thanks for the help I was able to provide on the internet answering their investing questions. Each person I spoke with meant a great to me.

Diehards VI is a reminder that this world is full of loving and caring people.

Best wishes.
Taylor

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Diehards VI Reunion

Post by Rager1 » Wed Jun 13, 2007 11:50 am

Hello Bogleheads,

First of all, thank all of you for your positive comments about Patti and I putting together the Diehards VI Reunion. In addition, we had 21 volunteers who helped us manage the affair to keep people out who weren't supposed to be there. The volunteers did an outstanding job!

On our last day, we discovered that the servers at our Monday night banquet were talking to each other about the Presidential candidate that they were serving in the banquet room! They thought that Jack Bogle was running for President because of our large "Jack Bogle for President" poster and for all of our "Jack Bogle for President" lapel pins.

Remember, it is the attendees that make a Diehards Reunion a success. Patti and I thank all of you for coming and look forward to seeing you again at Diehards VII.

Ed and Patti Rager

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Post by Prokofiev » Wed Jun 13, 2007 12:03 pm

" we had 21 volunteers who helped us manage the affair to keep people out who weren't supposed to be there"

I can't help speculating on this info. Are you saying that people tried to attend who were not welcome or pre-approved? Did Hocus actually show up . . . the guy responsible for this Forum after threatening to attend? And finally, did you need 21 people to keep him out?!!! :shock:

Sounds like you did a fine job on all counts.

Cheers, -P
Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler - Einstein

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Re: Dallas?

Post by Mel Lindauer » Wed Jun 13, 2007 12:05 pm

OUJohnNasr wrote:Mel,

I think Diehards VII should be held somewhere in the Great Midwest or Southwest. What's wrong with Dallas? You know, there are some people who live in "flyover" country that are also Diehards! :)

John
Hi John:

Funny you should mention Dallas, since Dallas is, indeed, on the short list of possible cities to host next year's event. And, if not next year, 2009 is a real good possibility.

Regards,

Mel

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Jack's reponse (From M* Board)

Post by sddiehard » Wed Jun 13, 2007 12:13 pm

Topic Forums | Fund Forums | Stock Forums Posting Guidelines | Terms of Use | How To Guide

Vanguard Diehards




Conversations # 59312 of 59312 Jump to #
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Wow! Wow! Wow! Community Watch
kevin101c | 06-13-07| 11:58 AM| Total Replies: 0
This is Jack, not Kevin, and I want to tell you that my time with all the Bogleheads in Alexandria was simply awesome.

Thanks especially to chief emcee Mel, to the infinitely hospitable Ragers, to the eternally graceful Larimores, to all those who responded to Taylor's challenge to comment at Monday's dinner, especially Bill Schultheis and Steve Dunn (what great and memorable anecdotes), to the infinitely wise Bill Bernstein, to Kevin for getting me back here in one piece, and to all of you whom I don't have enough space (and memory!) to name.

Thanks for being in the Windsor Room (a nice touch), for sporting me to a room, for the goody bag (and especially the Bogle--alas, no relation--Merlot, and for your generous contribution in my name to the John C. Bogle Chairman's Room at the National Constitution Center.

But most of all, thanks just for being who you are--a warm and witty group of human beings who are comitted to helping one another puzzle through the investment maze, to avoid the potholes along the way, and to stand as living testimony to "the majesty of simplicity," at least when practiced in "an empire of parsimony."

I still haven't figured out--and probably never will--how to handle such a gracious and generous outpouring of affection and trust. Even "Jack Bogle for President" didn't seem too preposterous! But know that you light up my life and illuminate my legacy, such as it may be.

Thanks, friends, and may God bless you always!

Jack

P.S. Darned if I can figure out how to get this Diehards posting over to the Bogleheads site. Can one of you oblige?


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From Jack Bogle, "Wow Wow Wow"

Post by avram53 » Wed Jun 13, 2007 12:14 pm

Jack posted this on the M* board and asked if someone would move it over here.

================

Wow! Wow! Wow!
kevin101c | 06-13-07| 11:58 AM|

This is Jack, not Kevin, and I want to tell you that my time with all the Bogleheads in Alexandria was simply awesome.

Thanks especially to chief emcee Mel, to the infinitely hospitable Ragers, to the eternally graceful Larimores, to all those who responded to Taylor's challenge to comment at Monday's dinner, especially Bill Schultheis and Steve Dunn (what great and memorable anecdotes), to the infinitely wise Bill Bernstein, to Kevin for getting me back here in one piece, and to all of you whom I don't have enough space (and memory!) to name.

Thanks for being in the Windsor Room (a nice touch), for sporting me to a room, for the goody bag (and especially the Bogle--alas, no relation--Merlot, and for your generous contribution in my name to the John C. Bogle Chairman's Room at the National Constitution Center.

But most of all, thanks just for being who you are--a warm and witty group of human beings who are comitted to helping one another puzzle through the investment maze, to avoid the potholes along the way, and to stand as living testimony to "the majesty of simplicity," at least when practiced in "an empire of parsimony."

I still haven't figured out--and probably never will--how to handle such a gracious and generous outpouring of affection and trust. Even "Jack Bogle for President" didn't seem too preposterous! But know that you light up my life and illuminate my legacy, such as it may be.

Thanks, friends, and may God bless you always!

Jack

P.S. Darned if I can figure out how to get this Diehards posting over to the Bogleheads site. Can one of you oblige?
(Life is good, appreciate every day! Simplicity in investing works for me.)

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Hi All,

Post by Kathleen Ryan » Wed Jun 13, 2007 12:34 pm

Thank you everyone for posting the details about DH VI. It sounds like everyone had a fantastic time. The "Ask the Panel of Experts" sounds like it was very informative, and I would have liked to have seen the crowning of Queen Laura. :)

This was the first reunion I missed since the first reunion held at Taylor and Pat's home. Now I have something else to whine about. 8) Plus I missed out on the special "Bogle for President" buttons. I hope there will be a few extras around for DH VII!


Hi Ed & Patti,

Thank you for doing such a great job of hosting this special reunion for all those fortunate enough to have attended.

Hi Eric,

I hope you have caught up on your sleep. =-)

Hi sddiehard& Ave

Thank you for posting Mr. Bogle's message.

Hi Taylor and Mel

Thank you both for starting this wonderful tradition of these reunions for people to meet Mr. Bogle, and for giving everyone the opportunity to meet the people behind the posts. I missed seeing you both, and hope to attend DH VII.

I just have to ask!

Did the Boglettes make a second appearance and sing to Mr. Bogle again?

The song I would have suggested would have been: "With a little help from my friends," which kind of sums up how people feel about Mr. Bogle because of how he helps the small investor, and also how the people who post here and at M* help each other.
Best wishes, | Kathleen

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Re: Dallas?

Post by SoonerSunDevil » Wed Jun 13, 2007 1:08 pm

Mel Lindauer wrote:
OUJohnNasr wrote:Mel,

I think Diehards VII should be held somewhere in the Great Midwest or Southwest. What's wrong with Dallas? You know, there are some people who live in "flyover" country that are also Diehards! :)

John
Hi John:

Funny you should mention Dallas, since Dallas is, indeed, on the short list of possible cities to host next year's event. And, if not next year, 2009 is a real good possibility.

Regards,

Mel

Hi Mel,

I think Dallas would be a fantastic city to host Diehards VII. American Airlines has a very large presence at the Dallas/Fort Worth International airport, and airline tickets are quite reasonable out of DFW. Also, Dallas Love Field Airport is used almost exclusively by Southwest Airlines, so those true Diehards can get the cheap tickets!

If Diehards VII is in Dallas, please let me know what I can do to help make that event wonderful.

Best,

John

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Post by Sheepdog » Wed Jun 13, 2007 1:10 pm

Someday, I've go to go to one of these. Thank you all for the synopsis and photos. You must have had a great time.
Jim
It's not what you gather, but what you scatter which tells what kind of life you have lived---Helen Walton

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Mel Lindauer
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Post by Mel Lindauer » Wed Jun 13, 2007 1:14 pm

Prokofiev wrote:" we had 21 volunteers who helped us manage the affair to keep people out who weren't supposed to be there"

I can't help speculating on this info. Are you saying that people tried to attend who were not welcome or pre-approved? Did Hocus actually show up . . . the guy responsible for this Forum after threatening to attend? And finally, did you need 21 people to keep him out?!!! :shock:

Sounds like you did a fine job on all counts.

Cheers, -P
Hi -P:

Actually, the volunteers worked in one-hour shifts over three days, so that accounts for the numbers. And, yes, in the past, we have had non-paying folks wander in to our private affairs, either by accident or on purpose (free food, to see and hear Jack Bogle and the other VIPs, etc.)

Regards,

Mel

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