Interview with Elroy Dimson by Meb Faber

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
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CULater
Posts: 1308
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 10:59 am

Interview with Elroy Dimson by Meb Faber

Post by CULater » Sun Apr 15, 2018 3:57 pm

Meb Faber podcast with Elroy Dimson, author of "Triumph of the Optimists." Ranges over a number of interesting topics:

- negative correlation between economic growth and stock performance; emerging markets are a risk story, not a growth story.
- relationship of high stock valuations to real interest rates and the prospect of a collapse of the stock market.
- currency hedging of foreign investments; aye or nay.
- factor investing; there must be "dumb beta" investors for "smart beta" to pay off.
- tangible investments such as real estate and fine wine; wine is probably better than houses.

http://mebfaber.com/2018/04/04/episode- ... -collapse/
May you have the hindsight to know where you've been, The foresight to know where you're going, And the insight to know when you've gone too far. ~ Irish Blessing

lazyday
Posts: 3297
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2007 10:27 pm

Re: Interview with Elroy Dimson by Meb Faber

Post by lazyday » Mon Apr 16, 2018 6:20 am

CULater wrote:
Sun Apr 15, 2018 3:57 pm
- tangible investments such as real estate and fine wine; wine is probably better than houses.
So house prices increased maybe 1% real, ignoring maintenance cost and significant upgrades over time, but also ignoring rent yield or the value of "renting" to yourself. He sounds quite skeptical of housing as an investment, but without estimating yield and total costs, I don't know how you could say.

From your link:
00:50 (First question) – Welcome, and a discussion of Elroy’s research history/process
1:23 – Triumph of the Optimists: 101 Years of Global Investment Returns – Dimson, Marsh, Staunton
3:38 – Millennium Book: A Century of Investment Returns – Dimson, Staunton
4:35 – The Millennium Book 2
6:03 – Main research takeaways from the book, in particular, anything that stood out
9:23 – Stocks for the Long Run: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns & Long-Term Investment Strategies – Siegel
11:45 – Expansions on the research finding that there is little correlation between economic growth and stock performance
16:39 – Thoughts on valuation and market cap weighting, and how the two interact
22:57 – How global, real interest rates are going to impact markets
26:50 – Twitter poll on drawdowns
28:06 – Elroy’s thoughts about inflation and their impact on currencies
32:47 – A look at factor-based investing and where the trend is moving
37:31 – Thoughts from this year’s Global Investment Return Yearbook (GIRY) (Dimson, Staunton, Credit Suisse) and the new inclusion of housing returns
44:01 – Investor reactions to the housing data
48:37 – What research has shown about returns for collectibles
51:40 – Most memorable investment
52:30 – Connecting with Elroy

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