U.S. stocks in freefall

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RRAAYY3
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RRAAYY3 » Thu Mar 29, 2018 6:16 pm

thangngo wrote:
Thu Mar 29, 2018 6:10 pm
RRAAYY3 wrote:
Thu Mar 29, 2018 4:59 pm
ReformedSpender wrote:
Thu Mar 29, 2018 3:08 pm
So after January's enthusiastic +8% move followed by February/March pessimistic 10% move down, markets closed this qtr negative but ever so slightly...


:beer
Looking at Jan 2 - Now ... Basically, nothing happened
I don't know about that. My # of shares went up by a good margin.
haha I could say the same re: International ... (February sucked, huh?)

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nedsaid » Thu Mar 29, 2018 6:22 pm

This is a fun thread and it reminds me of my poor forecasting abilities. When the market goes up a lot, it surprises me but I enjoy the ride. When the market goes down a lot, it doesn't feel good but then I remind myself that I have a long-term perspective on the markets. So pretty much, whatever the market does surprises me.

My theory is that the market paradigm that investors have functioned under has changed. We have assumed the "new normal" of 1% to 2% real economic growth, very low interest rates, and very low inflation if not mild deflation. The environment has changed. Economic growth is now more like 3% real and though interest rates and inflation are still low, they are both ticking up. My best guess, is that this period of increased volatility will be around for a while. Another thing is that investors are taking a second look at technology stocks, that perhaps they have gotten ahead of themselves here. Perhaps another stock sector will take market leadership. So I think there will be a fair amount of churn in the market as investors rethink their assumptions about the market.

What doesn't go out of style is owning the most successful companies in the world. Owning the big cap weighted indexes will assure this. Buying good stuff and keeping it.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by LadyGeek » Thu Mar 29, 2018 6:26 pm

Reminder - Since the market is closed tomorrow, this is the end of the 1st quarter.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by drk » Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:55 pm

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:46 pm
I tried to TLH those shares of VOO yesterday, but the price near the close kept bouncing around my personal neutral line and I couldn't get a point where I was sure a sale would be a loss. Probably not happening today, unless something interesting happens late.
You must have picked the bottom to buy them. Kudos.

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Earl Lemongrab
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Thu Mar 29, 2018 11:12 pm

drk wrote:
Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:55 pm
Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:46 pm
I tried to TLH those shares of VOO yesterday, but the price near the close kept bouncing around my personal neutral line and I couldn't get a point where I was sure a sale would be a loss. Probably not happening today, unless something interesting happens late.
You must have picked the bottom to buy them. Kudos.
Oh yeah. Obviously my buy was a strong signal to the market.
This week's fortune cookie: "Your financial life will be secure and beneficial." So I got that going for me, which is nice.

wrongfunds
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by wrongfunds » Fri Mar 30, 2018 11:32 am

I am loving today as US stocks are NOT in free fall like they have been whole month :-) I wish we had more days like today.
















Yes, I know :-)

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cfs
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Fri Mar 30, 2018 3:21 pm

The tide is shifting and you just dont want to be out of this market for ONE day! Good luck y gracias por leer / cfs
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

thangngo
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by thangngo » Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:47 am

Image

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walletless
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by walletless » Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:50 am

Tarrifs? No problems. I'll be with the market all the way down!!

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triceratop
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop » Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:57 am

I'm not sure I understand the panic. I bought shares of VTI at sub-$132 prices in February, which means those very-recent shares are showing a profit.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."

RRAAYY3
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RRAAYY3 » Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:59 am

“Big Tech” the new punching bag for our economy it seems ...

2018 volatility ... 2019 recession ... 2020 back in business ?!

nolesrule
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nolesrule » Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:06 am

I don't understand. I put in my monthly taxable account order for today. The market should be up today and drop tomorrow.

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bligh
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bligh » Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:18 am

Am I the only one wondering if it is actually a good sign that the FANGTA (Facebook Apple Netflix Google Tesla Amazon) prices are falling and evening out a little? Those stocks were flying a lot higher than the rest of the market and it felt like this correction is helping bring things back into balance a little?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by pokebowl » Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:26 am

nolesrule wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:06 am
I don't understand. I put in my monthly taxable account order for today. The market should be up today and drop tomorrow.
Thats my fault I am afraid. This is a result of my rolling one of my IRAs over on Thursday. The investments all cleared then, thus today I am enjoying the sea of red on my new account as is tradition. :beer

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by mrspock » Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:30 am

triceratop wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:57 am
I'm not sure I understand the panic. I bought shares of VTI at sub-$132 prices in February, which means those very-recent shares are showing a profit.
It’s not a sign of a strong market if to “show a profit” required buying at the absolute lowest point in the entire year. The market has gone no where in 4 months and counting, hence some are worrying.

RRAAYY3
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RRAAYY3 » Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:31 am

bligh wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:18 am
Am I the only one wondering if it is actually a good sign that the FANGTA (Facebook Apple Netflix Google Tesla Amazon) prices are falling and evening out a little? Those stocks were flying a lot higher than the rest of the market and it felt like this correction is helping bring things back into balance a little?
Could be a good thing ... it’s generally not good when only a few companies / 1 sector continue to “carry” the market

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Earl Lemongrab
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:35 am

I managed to sell VOO at a small loss and buy a similar amount of IVV to replace it. So now the Wash Sale Police can come after me.
This week's fortune cookie: "Your financial life will be secure and beneficial." So I got that going for me, which is nice.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:36 am

mrspock wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:30 am
triceratop wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:57 am
I'm not sure I understand the panic. I bought shares of VTI at sub-$132 prices in February, which means those very-recent shares are showing a profit.
It’s not a sign of a strong market if to “show a profit” required buying at the absolute lowest point in the entire year. The market has gone no where in 4 months and counting, hence some are worrying.
The market went backwards from 2000-2009. Worrying about a period of four months of sideways movement is...unnecessary.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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triceratop
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop » Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:37 am

mrspock wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:30 am
triceratop wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:57 am
I'm not sure I understand the panic. I bought shares of VTI at sub-$132 prices in February, which means those very-recent shares are showing a profit.
It’s not a sign of a strong market if to “show a profit” required buying at the absolute lowest point in the entire year. The market has gone no where in 4 months and counting, hence some are worrying.
Okay but even then I don’t see a problem. I was actually panicking in January and the market was shooting up. That is bad news for accumulators. A market that is going sideways is excellent for savers.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Engineer250 » Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:46 am

Didn't all these swings used to be normal? Love coming here so I can see intelligent people react to the market. The way the financial sites act you'd think 1 or 2% up or down was unprecedented.

My 401k money goes in on Wednesday so I predict Mr. Market will be back up by then.
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.

thangngo
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by thangngo » Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:46 am

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:35 am
I managed to sell VOO at a small loss and buy a similar amount of IVV to replace it. So now the Wash Sale Police can come after me.
You interpreted the wash sale rule with a conviction. That's all you should care about.

The IRS has bigger fish to catch.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Crushtheturtle » Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:56 am

thangngo wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:47 am
Image
:D

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Earl Lemongrab
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:58 am

thangngo wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:46 am
Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:35 am
I managed to sell VOO at a small loss and buy a similar amount of IVV to replace it. So now the Wash Sale Police can come after me.
You interpreted the wash sale rule with a conviction. That's all you should care about.
That was a joke of course. I have no concern that the IRS would choose my $10 loss (I don't have the exact figure) to make a test case. This is to demonstrate my belief that IVV and VOO are not substantially identical.
This week's fortune cookie: "Your financial life will be secure and beneficial." So I got that going for me, which is nice.

alfaspider
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by alfaspider » Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:59 am

Stocks may be in free fall today, but overall they mostly seem to be jumping on a trampoline.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by rebellovw » Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:04 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:36 am
mrspock wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:30 am
triceratop wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:57 am
I'm not sure I understand the panic. I bought shares of VTI at sub-$132 prices in February, which means those very-recent shares are showing a profit.
It’s not a sign of a strong market if to “show a profit” required buying at the absolute lowest point in the entire year. The market has gone no where in 4 months and counting, hence some are worrying.
The market went backwards from 2000-2009. Worrying about a period of four months of sideways movement is...unnecessary.
That is what I was thinking - the DOW was at 10K for what a decade or more? We may be at 20K for a decade or more - so what ever you buy today - may not show any gains for 10 years +/-. Nobody knows. All we can do is continue to buy - I try to pick up bargains (I bought some today) - but of course you never can catch the low.

Just buy and hold and wait.

RetireBy55
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RetireBy55 » Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:11 am

Another day, another 500+ point, 2+% change on the Dow.

This is getting pretty old..

It's increasingly clear we're in the early days of a bear market. To top it off, we just breached the 200 DMA on the S&P. Since just about everybody from your neighborhood cab driver to your elderly grandma knows at this point to watch those indicators, the selling will only accelerate now..

Herd mentality is taking over. Fundamentals don't seem to matter for squat at the moment. It's just plain old fashioned panic, which causes more panic, until things get really cheap.

Sucks for those of us near ER. For those in your 20s, 30s or even 40s it's all in stride.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:15 am

RetireBy55 wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:11 am
Another day, another 500+ point, 2+% change on the Dow.

This is getting pretty old..

It's increasingly clear we're in the early days of a bear market. To top it off, we just breached the 200 DMA on the S&P. Since just about everybody from your neighborhood cab driver to your elderly grandma knows at this point to watch those indicators, the selling will only accelerate now..

Herd mentality is taking over. Fundamentals don't seem to matter for squat at the moment. It's just plain old fashioned panic, which causes more panic, until things get really cheap.

Sucks for those of us near ER. For those in your 20s, 30s or even 40s it's all in stride.
The early indicators of a recession do not indicate that we are currently in one, nor that one is on the horizon. Consequently, I'm just sitting tight right now. If those indicators change AND stocks are below their 7 month MA, I'll move into bonds.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

thangngo
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by thangngo » Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:21 am

The dip today is too good to pass up for buying... I'll bite and putting in a buy order now.

wrongfunds
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by wrongfunds » Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:22 am

It’s not a sign of a strong market if to “show a profit” required buying at the absolute lowest point in the entire year. The market has gone no where in 4 months and counting, hence some are worrying.
Really? My calendar only shows 3 months. But to be on the track, the market should have gone at least 3% up so far. Bad market!

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MotoTrojan » Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:28 am

RetireBy55 wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:11 am
Another day, another 500+ point, 2+% change on the Dow.

This is getting pretty old..

It's increasingly clear we're in the early days of a bear market. To top it off, we just breached the 200 DMA on the S&P. Since just about everybody from your neighborhood cab driver to your elderly grandma knows at this point to watch those indicators, the selling will only accelerate now..

Herd mentality is taking over. Fundamentals don't seem to matter for squat at the moment. It's just plain old fashioned panic, which causes more panic, until things get really cheap.

Sucks for those of us near ER. For those in your 20s, 30s or even 40s it's all in stride.
Some would argue this drop IS based in fundamentals due to stretched valuations, no?

NoD
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by NoD » Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:35 am

This is my bad, sorry all. DW and I recently realized we need to be doing Roth IRAs instead of taxable, and I plan to sell taxable to fully fund 2017/2018 Roths today. I did this. I promise it'll go up before the sell processes and I can get back in via Roths :? :oops: :sharebeer
Some day we'll look back on all this and plow into a parked car.

CoAndy
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CoAndy » Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:39 am

Well, TimeLord posted a thread a couple months ago asking if anyone else was tired of the market going up. Wonder what his thoughts are right about now?

RetireBy55
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RetireBy55 » Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:40 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:15 am
The early indicators of a recession do not indicate that we are currently in one, nor that one is on the horizon. Consequently, I'm just sitting tight right now. If those indicators change AND stocks are below their 7 month MA, I'll move into bonds.
I wasn't thinking we're at risk of recession at all - corporate profits are going to continue to be high, especially with the tax law changes.

What's changed is market sentiment with people OVER-reacting to every little bit of news, rumor or speculation and sending the Dow up or down 500+ points everytime there's so much as a tiny perception of anything happening. It's really getting insane.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by robertmcd » Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:50 am

Subprime auto sales are struggling, new mortgages and refi are dropping, yield curve flattening, valuations are very high and assume debt fueled buybacks and earnings growth will continue. To me it looks like we are in the first steps of a deflationary recession. The money printed in the past 18 yrs has not gone into the real economy, just debt and asset prices. There has been no wage growth, and the only growth in disposable income has been from wealth effect and increased debt.

I am tempted to buy EDV, basically the longest duration US government bonds money can buy. If the US manages to maintain its flight to quality is the real question. Even if buyers of US debt demand higher yield for the reduced credit rating of the US, I think the Fed will buy every US treasury it needs to in order get an upward sloping yield curve with negative rates out to 5 yrs or so.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop » Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:54 am

robertmcd wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:50 am
Subprime auto sales are struggling, new mortgages and refi are dropping, yield curve flattening, valuations are very high and assume debt fueled buybacks and earnings growth will continue. To me it looks like we are in the first steps of a deflationary recession. The money printed in the past 18 yrs has not gone into the real economy, just debt and asset prices. There has been no wage growth, and the only growth in disposable income has been from wealth effect and increased debt.

I am tempted to buy EDV, basically the longest duration US government bonds money can buy. If the US manages to maintain its flight to quality is the real question. Even if buyers of US debt demand higher yield for the reduced credit rating of the US, I think the Fed will buy every US treasury it needs to in order get an upward sloping yield curve with negative rates out to 5 yrs or so.
Please let us know in advance of your predicted outcome of your specific trades. To his credit, grap did precisely this.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Expro » Mon Apr 02, 2018 12:02 pm

robertmcd wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:50 am
Subprime auto sales are struggling, new mortgages and refi are dropping, yield curve flattening, valuations are very high and assume debt fueled buybacks and earnings growth will continue. To me it looks like we are in the first steps of a deflationary recession. The money printed in the past 18 yrs has not gone into the real economy, just debt and asset prices. There has been no wage growth, and the only growth in disposable income has been from wealth effect and increased debt.

I am tempted to buy EDV, basically the longest duration US government bonds money can buy. If the US manages to maintain its flight to quality is the real question. Even if buyers of US debt demand higher yield for the reduced credit rating of the US, I think the Fed will buy every US treasury it needs to in order get an upward sloping yield curve with negative rates out to 5 yrs or so.
So I shouldn't expect the Fed to raise?

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Apr 02, 2018 12:08 pm

RetireBy55 wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:40 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:15 am
The early indicators of a recession do not indicate that we are currently in one, nor that one is on the horizon. Consequently, I'm just sitting tight right now. If those indicators change AND stocks are below their 7 month MA, I'll move into bonds.
I wasn't thinking we're at risk of recession at all - corporate profits are going to continue to be high, especially with the tax law changes.

What's changed is market sentiment with people OVER-reacting to every little bit of news, rumor or speculation and sending the Dow up or down 500+ points everytime there's so much as a tiny perception of anything happening. It's really getting insane.
Yes, the market is very bipolar right now. But historically, it's unlikely that a real bear market will set in apart from a recession, though anything can happen.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ReformedSpender » Mon Apr 02, 2018 12:22 pm

RetireBy55 wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:11 am
Another day, another 500+ point, 2+% change on the Dow.


...It's increasingly clear we're in the early days of a bear market...
Possibly, but lets not forget the recent tax reform that passed providing most individuals/families with a bit of extra pocket change to either A) invest or B) spend. In either choice, the outcome will be reflected positively in the market imo.


:beer
Last edited by ReformedSpender on Mon Apr 02, 2018 12:23 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MotoTrojan » Mon Apr 02, 2018 12:22 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 12:08 pm
RetireBy55 wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:40 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:15 am
The early indicators of a recession do not indicate that we are currently in one, nor that one is on the horizon. Consequently, I'm just sitting tight right now. If those indicators change AND stocks are below their 7 month MA, I'll move into bonds.
I wasn't thinking we're at risk of recession at all - corporate profits are going to continue to be high, especially with the tax law changes.

What's changed is market sentiment with people OVER-reacting to every little bit of news, rumor or speculation and sending the Dow up or down 500+ points everytime there's so much as a tiny perception of anything happening. It's really getting insane.
Yes, the market is very bipolar right now. But historically, it's unlikely that a real bear market will set in apart from a recession, though anything can happen.
A “real bear market” being a 20% drop from market peak seems as likely to occur as to not, no? Few more days like today and it’s here. That doesn’t mean it’ll last.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Apr 02, 2018 12:38 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 12:22 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 12:08 pm
RetireBy55 wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:40 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:15 am
The early indicators of a recession do not indicate that we are currently in one, nor that one is on the horizon. Consequently, I'm just sitting tight right now. If those indicators change AND stocks are below their 7 month MA, I'll move into bonds.
I wasn't thinking we're at risk of recession at all - corporate profits are going to continue to be high, especially with the tax law changes.

What's changed is market sentiment with people OVER-reacting to every little bit of news, rumor or speculation and sending the Dow up or down 500+ points everytime there's so much as a tiny perception of anything happening. It's really getting insane.
Yes, the market is very bipolar right now. But historically, it's unlikely that a real bear market will set in apart from a recession, though anything can happen.
A “real bear market” being a 20% drop from market peak seems as likely to occur as to not, no? Few more days like today and it’s here. That doesn’t mean it’ll last.
Historically, bear markets do not typically occur unless there is a recession underway. Apart from stocks going crazy lately, there are no signs of a recession. But as I said, anything can happen.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

Slothmeister
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Slothmeister » Mon Apr 02, 2018 12:47 pm

I feel like Slim Pickens riding that missile down to unknown depths. There goes my first 6 months as an investor. Time to sit tight.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bgf » Mon Apr 02, 2018 12:53 pm

the three companies that i follow, read the annual reports, and listen to the conference calls, are all doing well - earning record profits with little or no leverage, growing organically and through acquisitions...

i still think there is a 'better than not' probability that the Total US market finishes up double digits for 2018.
“TE OCCIDERE POSSUNT SED TE EDERE NON POSSUNT NEFAS EST"

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by fishandgolf » Mon Apr 02, 2018 12:54 pm

Slothmeister wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 12:47 pm
I feel like Slim Pickens riding that missile down to unknown depths. There goes my first 6 months as an investor. Time to sit tight.
:D Today......pickens aren't slim......lots of stuff on sale......... :sharebeer

Slothmeister
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Slothmeister » Mon Apr 02, 2018 12:59 pm

The way things are going, it may be too soon to buy.

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Starchild
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Starchild » Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:00 pm

Placed an order for VTSMX today :happy

DanMahowny
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by DanMahowny » Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:01 pm

DOW 16,000

WhiteMaxima
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by WhiteMaxima » Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:03 pm

Rebalance order sent today. I am sill 30% in cash even after this. Hard cold cash is still the King.

DanMahowny
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by DanMahowny » Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:05 pm

WhiteMaxima wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:03 pm
Rebalance order sent today. I am sill 30% in cash even after this. Hard cold cash is still the King.
Right on! I'm 80% short-term treasuries and gold.

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Carlos Danger
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Carlos Danger » Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:07 pm

Indexes down around 3%. Everyone should panic, it's time to sell. This opinion is in no way influenced by the fact that I put in my monthly buy order for VTSAX this morning.


On a serious note, I have a hard time seeing this as anything other than a short term correction and a hard time seeing us actually entering a bear market at this time, which as others have mentioned above, usually accompany a recession. I'm just not seeing us entering the next recession in the short term. Earnings are good and they look to get better, the impact of tax reform still has not been fully felt (many people whose taxes ARE now lower have NOT had their withholding changed yet), "TRADE WARS" is long on hype and short on substance, and we are in a unique employment environment where the current "full employment" numbers are misleading IMO.

Following the recession, we experienced almost a decade-long decline in LFPR (historically unprecedented). It was NOT driven by boomer retirements (broken down by age, retirement aged workers have been participating at record high levels). LFPR finally leveled off in 2016, and is now very faintly starting to tick up overall, including most importantly the working aged (mid 20s - mid 50s) population. U3 in my opinion was rendered useless as a comparative tool to previous cycles because of this unprecedented change in what HAD been a constant over past decades (steady or increasing participation), and the current rate around 4% being viewed as similar to past periods of full employment is misleading. In short, I don't believe we've reached the peak in the employment cycle, and I think we have more room to grow w/r/t employment as hopefully more and more working aged persons re-enter the labor force and finally start pushing participation back up to pre-recession levels.

RetireBy55
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RetireBy55 » Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:08 pm

WhiteMaxima wrote:
Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:03 pm
Hard cold cash is still the King.
Yep - and that's why I'm personally 50+% cash and always have been. I'll take the ~2.5% divvys and pay a good chunk of my bills with that..

The market has basically become one big casino IMHO. We've long left the days of stocks trading on actual fundamentals, and every little perceived piece of news sends the market one way or the other into a spastic tizzy.

I know it's very non-BH to say this, but B&H is dead. The "instant information", constant articles causing herd stampedes and all the similar noise has killed B&H for good IMHO.

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