Dave Ramsey on Bonds

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ThePrince
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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by ThePrince » Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:52 pm

Easman61 wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:07 am
I often question the role bonds have played in my portfolio. I am mid 50's with 40% bonds. I don't think that I, along with most Bogelheads, need bonds to keep me invested and "steady at the wheel". I do sometimes question this investing philosophy given how so many times bonds seem to move down in concert with equities. Then I really question why I'm giving up so much upside potential in my portfolio.
I’m 39, have 2% of my portfolio in bonds, yet am having similar thoughts to yours.

finite_difference
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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by finite_difference » Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:46 pm

ThePrince wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:52 pm
Easman61 wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:07 am
I often question the role bonds have played in my portfolio. I am mid 50's with 40% bonds. I don't think that I, along with most Bogelheads, need bonds to keep me invested and "steady at the wheel". I do sometimes question this investing philosophy given how so many times bonds seem to move down in concert with equities. Then I really question why I'm giving up so much upside potential in my portfolio.
I’m 39, have 2% of my portfolio in bonds, yet am having similar thoughts to yours.
I’ve seen so many threads lately about people questioning or disregarding bonds. The next crash is going to be really painful for those who change their AA and overestimate their capacity for risk.

Stay the course.
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh

MO MAN
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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by MO MAN » Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:48 pm

Easman61 wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:07 am
I often question the role bonds have played in my portfolio. I am mid 50's with 40% bonds. I don't think that I, along with most Bogelheads, need bonds to keep me invested and "steady at the wheel". I do sometimes question this investing philosophy given how so many times bonds seem to move down in concert with equities. Then I really question why I'm giving up so much upside potential in my portfolio.
That has been my philosophy since 1980, would have been a lot more money lost than just the commissions I paid, had I been in any bonds the last 37 years.

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cfs
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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by cfs » Tue Mar 13, 2018 7:07 pm

Wow, conversations about Mister Ramsey are fast movers here, I wonder why . . .

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doc4sleep
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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by doc4sleep » Tue Mar 13, 2018 7:14 pm

I've been listening to Dave Ramsey for a few years and and have never heard him say he was against bonds because they are a form of debt. He does not recommend them, in fact describes them as a "horrible investment", especially in the current low interest rate environment where their value will decrease as interest rates rise.

He continually admonishes his listeners to not "jump off the roller coaster" when the stock market goes through its gyrations even when your "401K may look like a 201K". He reassures listeners to not pay attention to all the hype and hand wringing that is ever present in the media.

He does all this while advising listeners to not invest until they are entirely debt free with the exception of their mortgage and have a 3-6 month emergency fund in place as insurance against Murphy.

He leaves the investment advice specifics to his "smartvestor pro's" who must have the "heart of a teacher" (I have not felt they would be worth the cost to me or most who frequent this forum). If you listen long enough you do hear him say he regularly invests in a Vanguard 500 index fund to park his money until he makes his next real estate purchase. Real estate makes up more than half his net worth mostly because he was entirely debt free and buying real estate like crazy during the 2008 real estate crash and the Nashville market has been very strong since then.

I am one who has never, over my 30 year investing life, invested in bonds or bond funds. We know our risk tolerance, having gone through the 2000-2010 financial/housing crisis never being tempted to sell even one share of the funds we owned. We have the confidence of being completely debt free, including real estate, with a 6+ month emergency fund and an extremely stable job (20 year partner). We are quite conservative on the one hand and can weather the ups and downs that go with owning 100% equity broad based index funds.

Our plan for retirement at age 70 is to withdraw 5% of our portfolio value each year (whatever that may be) to supplement our estimated $65,000 per year of social security income. We look at rental income and social security to give us the income stability we would get from bonds. We look at our mutual fund portfolio as a LONG term investment used to be outrageously generous and someday pass on to our kids and grandkids. This may not be appropriate for everyone but following Dave Ramsey's advice helped us develop a plan that we feel confident will work for us.

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by GibsonL6s » Tue Mar 13, 2018 7:16 pm

What I also find interesting is the number of 100% equity investors when if you look at the numbers from 2002 to 2018 an 80/20 portfolio has had virtually the same returns as 100% equities with less volatility. A max draw down of 10 bps less.

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Cycle
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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by Cycle » Tue Mar 13, 2018 7:29 pm

GoldenFinch wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:33 am
Dave does not like bonds because to him they are a form of debt (the bond holder is lending money) and he is against all debt except for 15 year mortgages.
Which is debt.... I no longer have a mortgage, but had I rented for 1 year longer in 2008 I could have bought a house for my down payment.

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Pajamas
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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by Pajamas » Tue Mar 13, 2018 7:52 pm

GoldenFinch wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:33 am
Dave does not like bonds because to him they are a form of debt (the bond holder is lending money) and he is against all debt except for 15 year mortgages.
That's an interesting position to take and seems to confirm my poor opinion of Dave Ramsey. Is that view derived from his religious beliefs?

Our modern world wouldn't exist without debt. That might or might not be a good thing, depending on what it would be like if the only form of debt in existence were 15 year mortgages. Even investing in corporations through ownership of stock would be very different without bonds and other forms of borrowing and debt.

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Clever_Username
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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by Clever_Username » Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:05 pm

Pajamas wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 7:52 pm
GoldenFinch wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:33 am
Dave does not like bonds because to him they are a form of debt (the bond holder is lending money) and he is against all debt except for 15 year mortgages.
That's an interesting position to take and seems to confirm my poor opinion of Dave Ramsey. Is that view derived from his religious beliefs?
Partly. I'm sure his bankruptcy due to irresponsible over-use of debt 30 or so years ago didn't help his opinion of it.
"What was true then is true now. Have a plan. Stick to it." -- XXXX, _Layer Cake_

jibantik
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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by jibantik » Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:36 pm

Well, if I was a smartvestor pro and could get a guaranteed 12% return I wouldn't buy bonds either :wink:

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Wed Mar 14, 2018 7:56 am

ThePrince wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:52 pm
Easman61 wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:07 am
I often question the role bonds have played in my portfolio. I am mid 50's with 40% bonds. I don't think that I, along with most Bogelheads, need bonds to keep me invested and "steady at the wheel". I do sometimes question this investing philosophy given how so many times bonds seem to move down in concert with equities. Then I really question why I'm giving up so much upside potential in my portfolio.
I’m 39, have 2% of my portfolio in bonds, yet am having similar thoughts to yours.
Read the book - The Great Depression: A Diary: Benjamin Roth. Then reevaluate your 2% holding.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Wed Mar 14, 2018 7:59 am

Pajamas wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 7:52 pm
GoldenFinch wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:33 am
Dave does not like bonds because to him they are a form of debt (the bond holder is lending money) and he is against all debt except for 15 year mortgages.
That's an interesting position to take and seems to confirm my poor opinion of Dave Ramsey. Is that view derived from his religious beliefs?

Our modern world wouldn't exist without debt. That might or might not be a good thing, depending on what it would be like if the only form of debt in existence were 15 year mortgages. Even investing in corporations through ownership of stock would be very different without bonds and other forms of borrowing and debt.
It might have something to do with owning $4 million of property that had $4 million of mortgage debt on it. When the mortgages got called, he was pushed into bankruptcy because there are extra costs beyond the $4 million of mortgage debt, especially if what you think the property is worth is more than the market will bear.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by oldcomputerguy » Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:37 am

BeneIRA wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:51 am
GoldenFinch wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:33 am
Dave does not like bonds because to him they are a form of debt (the bond holder is lending money) and he is against all debt except for 15 year mortgages.
This is the reason he doesn't like bonds, all of the other reasons given are justifications, but this is the real reason. It is very black and white. Debt is bad, bonds are debt, so don't buy bonds.
My thinking modifies this slightly: Debt that I owe is bad. However, I don't really mind someone else owing me money, as long as they keep up with the interest payments and don't default.
:happy
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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by wootwoot » Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:52 am

Dave Ramsey also thinks that average stock returns are 12% each year. He has good advice for paying down debt but shouldn't be listened to for investing advice.

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by Da5id » Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:06 am

oldcomputerguy wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:37 am
BeneIRA wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:51 am
GoldenFinch wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:33 am
Dave does not like bonds because to him they are a form of debt (the bond holder is lending money) and he is against all debt except for 15 year mortgages.
This is the reason he doesn't like bonds, all of the other reasons given are justifications, but this is the real reason. It is very black and white. Debt is bad, bonds are debt, so don't buy bonds.
My thinking modifies this slightly: Debt that I owe is bad. However, I don't really mind someone else owing me money, as long as they keep up with the interest payments and don't default.
:happy
Lots of companies -- even ones with oodles of cash like Apple -- have debt in the form of issued corporate bonds. Debt is bad. Therefore most stocks are bad. Because debt. What to do, what to do.

The case that fixed income is currently a weak investment because of the current pretty crummy real yields I get. Though if one doesn't want to be all in stocks and one doesn't want to personally deal with real estate the alternatives are murky.

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by Nate79 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:23 am

wootwoot wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:52 am
Dave Ramsey also thinks that average stock returns are 12% each year. He has good advice for paying down debt but shouldn't be listened to for investing advice.
I don't understand this point. Are you not aware of the historical return of the funds that DR recommends? Of course anyone can argue, and rightfully so that 12% going forward can not be guaranteed but the historical numbers are really really easy to look up.

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stemikger
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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by stemikger » Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:25 am

When I knew nothing about investing, I learned that you should always have a mix of stocks and bonds. That is how I learned and have always been in a balanced fund type of allocation even when I was younger. If I knew then what I know now, I would have been in more stocks, but having said that, I am now turning 54 and my asset allocation finally caught up to my age. I was 50/50 when I was in my 30s and pretty much went on to 60/40 to 70/30 over the years. My plan is to stay 60/40 for the foreseeable future, if not forever.

I'm comfortable having both even if it means less of a return. Dave Ramsey is not the only one who prefers mostly stocks for retirement, even Warren Buffett talks about 90/10 for people his age. I'll stick with my balanced fund and Stay the Course. Less regrets during the next downturn.


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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by Da5id » Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:32 am

Nate79 wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:23 am
wootwoot wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:52 am
Dave Ramsey also thinks that average stock returns are 12% each year. He has good advice for paying down debt but shouldn't be listened to for investing advice.
I don't understand this point. Are you not aware of the historical return of the funds that DR recommends? Of course anyone can argue, and rightfully so that 12% going forward can not be guaranteed but the historical numbers are really really easy to look up.
S&P 500 has had a > 15% CAGR since Jan 2009. ~13% adjusted for inflation. qed. This will go on forever. Because mumble mumble cherry picked past performance guarantees future returns. Or something like that. Mind you, CAGR for S&P since 1985 is > 11% nominal, so he isn't THAT far off in the modern time period. He still is overselling, and discussing nominal returns is not very professional. And his funds no doubt have the adviser haircut. And who knows what the future will bring.

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by oldcomputerguy » Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:01 am

Nate79 wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:23 am
wootwoot wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:52 am
Dave Ramsey also thinks that average stock returns are 12% each year. He has good advice for paying down debt but shouldn't be listened to for investing advice.
I don't understand this point. Are you not aware of the historical return of the funds that DR recommends? Of course anyone can argue, and rightfully so that 12% going forward can not be guaranteed but the historical numbers are really really easy to look up.
Past Performance Is No Guarantee Of Future Results.
It’s taken me a lot of years, but I’ve come around to this: If you’re dumb, surround yourself with smart people. And if you’re smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you.

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by DanMahowny » Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:20 am

Dave deserves to get slammed relentlessly.

He will flat out call you an idiot, moron, stupid if you use a credit card, borrow money, have a FICO score, buy bonds, etc.

His way is the only way, in his eyes. And his advice generally sucks.
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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by AnalogKid22 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:23 am

finite_difference wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:46 pm
ThePrince wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:52 pm
Easman61 wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:07 am
I often question the role bonds have played in my portfolio. I am mid 50's with 40% bonds. I don't think that I, along with most Bogelheads, need bonds to keep me invested and "steady at the wheel". I do sometimes question this investing philosophy given how so many times bonds seem to move down in concert with equities. Then I really question why I'm giving up so much upside potential in my portfolio.
I’m 39, have 2% of my portfolio in bonds, yet am having similar thoughts to yours.
I’ve seen so many threads lately about people questioning or disregarding bonds. The next crash is going to be really painful for those who change their AA and overestimate their capacity for risk.

Stay the course.
Exactly. During the last correction, which was fairly small, especially considering the market remained up, there were plenty of posts from panicky people. I can only assume these people are either close to retirement and couldn't handle watching their equity investments drop, or, they just can't handle any correction. When the next major correction does occur, regardless of their investment horizon, these same people will have a very difficult time watching their portfolio drop 20%, 30%, 40% or more and will worry about it for months or even years until they see a recovery.
A fool and his money are very easily parted - Anonymous

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by Da5id » Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:29 am

DanMahowny wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:20 am
Dave deserves to get slammed relentlessly.

He will flat out call you an idiot, moron, stupid if you use a credit card, borrow money, have a FICO score, buy bonds, etc.

His way is the only way, in his eyes. And his advice generally sucks.
I listened to him rant briefly once. Not my cup of tea. But people who can't control their spending and have credit card balances apparently find some value in his message about credit cards and debt. Such folks may also have trouble staying the course when stocks fall, and MAY benefit from an adviser. But many of his ideas seem a bit nutty to me (bonds are evil is one), and if one needs an adviser Vanguard PAS will cost you vastly less than the ones Ramsey is using his reputation to sell to his devotees.

I think if one knows not so much, Dave Ramsey may have useful things to say on some subjects. In bogleheads context, not lots of value to be had.

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by ACA » Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:35 am

He’s not completely stupid! And his investing advice is sound, some just disagree with it. He is polarizing!

I agree with no debt. And his plan works. I didn’t follow it, but I believe it can help many people who have no financial savvy and a desire to improve their future.

Having gone through a career transition 8 years ago while having a significant mortgage, I came to the conclusion that no debt is the best way (for me and my family) with now a very small mortgage that will disappear within 3years, I still think it’s the best way to go. Retiring is easy when you have no debt, a pile of cash and a hefty retirement fund.

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by Da5id » Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:42 am

ACA wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:35 am
And his investing advice is sound, some just disagree with it. He is polarizing!
His advice (https://www.daveramsey.com/blog/daves-i ... philosophy) includes:

ETFs are bad
Bonds are bad
CDs are bad
REITS are bad
You can pick mutual funds based that will beat the market going forward
Fixed annuities are bad (including SPIAs apparently)
Advisers are good (particularly I guess those paying him kickbacks for your business)


I think many here would disagree with those points, particularly stated categorically. Some of them may be more situational (SPIAs). Some of his other ideas on that page are good.

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by ACA » Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:54 am

From DR website...

When you’re choosing your mutual funds, we recommend you invest in funds with a long history—10 years or more--of strong returns. Spread your investments across these four types of funds, with 25% in each type.

Growth and Income: These funds have a history of stable growth that also pay dividends. You might find these listed under the large-cap or large value fund categories. They can also called blue chip, dividend income or equity income funds.

Growth: These funds are made up of medium or large US companies that are still experiencing growth. These are more likely to ebb and flow with the economy. They can also be called mid-cap, large-cap, equity or growth funds.

Aggressive Growth: These funds are the wild child of your portfolio. When these funds are up, they’re up and when they’re down, they’re down.

International: These funds give you a chance to invest in big non-U.S. companies you already know and love. These are great because they spread your risk beyond U.S. soil. That way your retirement fund doesn’t totally tank if America goes through an unexpected downturn. They are also called foreign or overseas funds.

Never invest in anything you don’t understand, including how much you’re paying and why. No one cares about your future as much as you do, so take charge of your mutual fund education. Understand how they work, how much they cost and how the cost will affect your savings long-term.

Don’t chase returns. Before you commit to a fund, take a step back and consider the big picture. How has it performed over the past five years? What about the past 10 or 20 years? Look for mutual funds that stand the test of time and continue to deliver strong long-haul returns.


Seems like pretty decent advice. And arguably excellent advice compared to many of the Edward Jones types pedaling their services.

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by AnalogKid22 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:03 am

ACA wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:54 am
From DR website...

When you’re choosing your mutual funds, we recommend you invest in funds with a long history—10 years or more--of strong returns. Spread your investments across these four types of funds, with 25% in each type.

Growth and Income: These funds have a history of stable growth that also pay dividends. You might find these listed under the large-cap or large value fund categories. They can also called blue chip, dividend income or equity income funds.

Growth: These funds are made up of medium or large US companies that are still experiencing growth. These are more likely to ebb and flow with the economy. They can also be called mid-cap, large-cap, equity or growth funds.

Aggressive Growth: These funds are the wild child of your portfolio. When these funds are up, they’re up and when they’re down, they’re down.

International: These funds give you a chance to invest in big non-U.S. companies you already know and love. These are great because they spread your risk beyond U.S. soil. That way your retirement fund doesn’t totally tank if America goes through an unexpected downturn. They are also called foreign or overseas funds.

Never invest in anything you don’t understand, including how much you’re paying and why. No one cares about your future as much as you do, so take charge of your mutual fund education. Understand how they work, how much they cost and how the cost will affect your savings long-term.

Don’t chase returns. Before you commit to a fund, take a step back and consider the big picture. How has it performed over the past five years? What about the past 10 or 20 years? Look for mutual funds that stand the test of time and continue to deliver strong long-haul returns.


Seems like pretty decent advice. And arguably excellent advice compared to many of the Edward Jones types pedaling their services.
Where does he suggest we park money not invested in these 4 funds? He recommends investing no more than 15% of income, which leaves a lot of extra cash for many. For short-term investors, or those close to retirement, does he suggest moving from equities to something else?
Last edited by AnalogKid22 on Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by Pajamas » Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:05 am

ACA wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:54 am
From DR website...

When you’re choosing your mutual funds, we recommend you invest in funds with a long history—10 years or more--of strong returns. Spread your investments across these four types of funds, with 25% in each type.

Growth and Income: These funds have a history of stable growth that also pay dividends. You might find these listed under the large-cap or large value fund categories. They can also called blue chip, dividend income or equity income funds.

Growth: These funds are made up of medium or large US companies that are still experiencing growth. These are more likely to ebb and flow with the economy. They can also be called mid-cap, large-cap, equity or growth funds.

Aggressive Growth: These funds are the wild child of your portfolio. When these funds are up, they’re up and when they’re down, they’re down.

International: These funds give you a chance to invest in big non-U.S. companies you already know and love. These are great because they spread your risk beyond U.S. soil. That way your retirement fund doesn’t totally tank if America goes through an unexpected downturn. They are also called foreign or overseas funds.

Never invest in anything you don’t understand, including how much you’re paying and why. No one cares about your future as much as you do, so take charge of your mutual fund education. Understand how they work, how much they cost and how the cost will affect your savings long-term.

Don’t chase returns. Before you commit to a fund, take a step back and consider the big picture. How has it performed over the past five years? What about the past 10 or 20 years? Look for mutual funds that stand the test of time and continue to deliver strong long-haul returns.


Seems like pretty decent advice. And arguably excellent advice compared to many of the Edward Jones types pedaling their services.
Seems very arbitrary to recommend 25% into each of those particular four types of funds, especially since three have "growth" as part of their name and the fourth is international.

The advice to choose particular funds based on past results and the big picture seems like a good idea superficially but is based on several incorrect assumptions.

Yes, there is worse advice out there, but that is not exactly a glowing endorsement. Only the absolute worst is the worst and everything else is better in comparison.

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by Clever_Username » Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:23 am

ACA wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:54 am
Seems like pretty decent advice. And arguably excellent advice compared to many of the Edward Jones types pedaling their services.
"Better than Edward Jones" is like "valedictorian of summer school."
"What was true then is true now. Have a plan. Stick to it." -- XXXX, _Layer Cake_

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by Pajamas » Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:25 am

Clever_Username wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:23 am

"Better than Edward Jones" is like "valedictorian of summer school."
:sharebeer

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by Nate79 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:53 am

oldcomputerguy wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:01 am
Nate79 wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:23 am
wootwoot wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:52 am
Dave Ramsey also thinks that average stock returns are 12% each year. He has good advice for paying down debt but shouldn't be listened to for investing advice.
I don't understand this point. Are you not aware of the historical return of the funds that DR recommends? Of course anyone can argue, and rightfully so that 12% going forward can not be guaranteed but the historical numbers are really really easy to look up.
Past Performance Is No Guarantee Of Future Results.
Correct, which is what I said. We are talking about historical numbers.

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by doc4sleep » Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:59 pm

Where does he suggest we park money not invested in these 4 funds? He recommends investing no more than 15% of income, which leaves a lot of extra cash for many. For short-term investors, or those close to retirement, does he suggest moving from equities to something else?
His plan is in baby steps:
4. 15% in matching 401k then Roth IRAs then non matching 401k and the balance of the 15% to be invested in a low turnover index fund outside of 401k
5. Fund kids college
6. Throw everything extra at the mortgage
7. Continue to build wealth and become fabulously wealthy so you can live and give "like no one else"

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by GibsonL6s » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:03 pm

Nate79 wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:53 am
oldcomputerguy wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:01 am
Nate79 wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:23 am
wootwoot wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:52 am
Dave Ramsey also thinks that average stock returns are 12% each year. He has good advice for paying down debt but shouldn't be listened to for investing advice.
I don't understand this point. Are you not aware of the historical return of the funds that DR recommends? Of course anyone can argue, and rightfully so that 12% going forward can not be guaranteed but the historical numbers are really really easy to look up.
Past Performance Is No Guarantee Of Future Results.
Correct, which is what I said. We are talking about historical numbers.
If someone believed stocks would return 12% why would you pay off 4% debt? I have listened to his show a couple of times and have to turn it off almost immediately. Listening to a millionaire angst with his callers over a few thousand of credit card debt followed by poor investment advice is not my idea of entertainment

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by deltaneutral83 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:19 pm

GibsonL6s wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:03 pm
If someone believed stocks would return 12% why would you pay off 4% debt? I have listened to his show a couple of times and have to turn it off almost immediately. Listening to a millionaire angst with his callers over a few thousand of credit card debt followed by poor investment advice is not my idea of entertainment
Because his listeners don't have the reliability to actually invest the difference and he doesn't trust them to play arbitrage games and see it through year after year without bailing, or worse, spending it. Much like credit cards, his listeners do not need to be tempted. His blanket coverage for his straight forward teachings are appropriate for about 80-85% of the population. Debt and debt like instruments from overspending crushes the majority of this country, absolutely decimates it. If you read the BH forum for just more than 15 minutes you would have an almost instant understanding that the sophistication level of the BH community with regards to handling money is mostly mathematics as behaviors are in check. Ramsey's shtick is the opposite but even on BH you see some threads in the consumer heading that make you scratch your head.

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by beth65 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:03 pm

What I take issue with is that he advises people to pay off debts before even getting an employer match of a retirement plan, which seems foolish to throw away free money, especially if people have the opportunity to transfer to 0% interest cards, refinance and get lower rates, etc. I have had debates with people in DR budgeting groups about this, because he is advising people to ignore the value of compound interest. Obvoiusly carrying balances on credit cards with 25% interest is foolish and should be paid off immediately, but I would not ever consider not investing or funding retirement, certainly getting free money with employer match, before paying off student loans.

It’s as if he completely ignores the fact that fixed rate loans at low interest rates exist, that card balance transfers at low or 0% interest are available (to some) to expedite debt payoff, and that compound interest won’t save more money over 30 years that waiting for the average person to be completely debt free until their mid 50’s and then playing catch up with retirement.

Consumer debt is at 13 trillion, which is staggering and sobering, but recent reports all state that almost half of Americans have nothing saved for retirement (42% are at risk of retiring broke). The average cost of expenditures in retirement is $40,000/yr, but Social Security will be $17,189. That doesn’t include healthcare expenditures.

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by oldcomputerguy » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:28 pm

Nate79 wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:53 am
oldcomputerguy wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:01 am
Nate79 wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:23 am
wootwoot wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:52 am
Dave Ramsey also thinks that average stock returns are 12% each year. He has good advice for paying down debt but shouldn't be listened to for investing advice.
I don't understand this point. Are you not aware of the historical return of the funds that DR recommends? Of course anyone can argue, and rightfully so that 12% going forward can not be guaranteed but the historical numbers are really really easy to look up.
Past Performance Is No Guarantee Of Future Results.
Correct, which is what I said. We are talking about historical numbers.
The historical returns that DR recommends are just that; historical. He, however, tends to want one to believe that just because a fund has returned 12% in the past, that it is a great investment.

Past Performance Is No Guarantee Of Future Results.
It’s taken me a lot of years, but I’ve come around to this: If you’re dumb, surround yourself with smart people. And if you’re smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you.

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by Pajamas » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:35 pm

If someone has a debt problem and especially a credit card problem, I think it may be appropriate for them to avoid debt entirely in most cases, similar to an alcoholic avoiding alcohol completely. Most people who quit smoking or drinking would probably agree. I think the need to eat is one reason so many people have trouble maintaining weight loss: they can't simply avoid food completely.

So there may be something to that.

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by munemaker » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:43 pm

Why would anyone on this forum take investing advice from Dave Ramsey?

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by tesuzuki2002 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:27 pm

mhalley wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 2:18 am
Dave has a few areas of his investment philosophy that bogleheads disagree with. In addition to havin a 100% stock portfolio, he has unrealistic expectations of future returns, and also believes it is possible to outperform the market consistently by using an advisor that charges fees and puts you in high cost loaded mutual funds.
Certainly it is possible that bond funds will lose value in the short term as interest rates rise, but the purpose of bond funds is not to achieve high returns but to provide ballast for the inevitable large drops in stock markets.
In summary, follow some of his debt reduction advise and totally ignore his investment advise.
umm.. anytime I listen to him.. he talks about No-Load Mutual funds. Load Mutual funds are a no-no.

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by stemikger » Wed Mar 14, 2018 4:52 pm

DanMahowny wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:20 am
Dave deserves to get slammed relentlessly.

He will flat out call you an idiot, moron, stupid if you use a credit card, borrow money, have a FICO score, buy bonds, etc.

His way is the only way, in his eyes. And his advice generally sucks.
I have to admit I listen at night during my drive to work. The stories of the people inspire me, but you are right, over the years Dave has showed his true colors. Not very tolerant of anyone who disagrees with his strategies and lashes out and starts calling names. I never once saw John Bogle or Warren Buffett behave this way. Plus much of his advice is pretty questionable. I rather have a FICO score then not. Yes Mr. Ramsey there are people who can use credit cards responsibly. We are not all financial alcoholics.
Choose Simplicity ~ Stay the Course!! ~ Press on Regardless!!!

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by Helo80 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 4:56 pm

deltaneutral83 wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:19 pm
Because his listeners don't have the reliability to actually invest the difference and he doesn't trust them to play arbitrage games and see it through year after year without bailing, or worse, spending it. Much like credit cards, his listeners do not need to be tempted. His blanket coverage for his straight forward teachings are appropriate for about 80-85% of the population. Debt and debt like instruments from overspending crushes the majority of this country, absolutely decimates it. If you read the BH forum for just more than 15 minutes you would have an almost instant understanding that the sophistication level of the BH community with regards to handling money is mostly mathematics as behaviors are in check. Ramsey's shtick is the opposite but even on BH you see some threads in the consumer heading that make you scratch your head.

Yup... Dave's target audience is not us, and I think some members tend to forget that. I would suspect 99.9% of the posters on this forum make zero cents from sharing their knowledge and wisdom of personal investing... Dave Ramsey has a three hour, nationally syndicated radio show on personal debt reduction and financial advice. He has built a decent sized empire from the ground-up, and is doing very well for himself; I would estimate better than 95% (at least) of the regular posters here. (Note: that does not mean DR is a better person or a more sophisticated financial guru; rather, Dave built a product that people want and for the average American consumer, it is actually a solid product)

Now, we can argue about the kickbacks his endorse local providers give him, and CFPs that charge annual fees for AUM.... but some of you all miss the knuckleheadedness of some knuckleheads out there....
These are real callers to his show (and I suppose they could be staged):
- I make $18k per year and owe $24k on my car note
- I make $30k per year, and I want to buy a $200k home
- I have $180K in student loan debt and make $42k per year as a public school teacher

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by Helo80 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 4:57 pm

tesuzuki2002 wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:27 pm
umm.. anytime I listen to him.. he talks about No-Load Mutual funds. Load Mutual funds are a no-no.


Yes --- Dave does use no-load, low ER S&P500 index funds as sort of a piggybank for future real estate buys. He only buys RE when he sees a good deal. He was also a RE agent prior to his radio career, and RE is still a hobby of his.

Truth be told, I'm not sure if I have ever heard Dave endorse a MF with a load fee. Other BHs have heard Dave in yester-years say he has some AmeriFunds that would carry loads, but DR generally does not hand out mutual fund symbols to buy in as. Instead, he refers people to one of his ELPs.

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by Helo80 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 5:09 pm

munemaker wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:43 pm
Why would anyone on this forum take investing advice from Dave Ramsey?

This forum is a self-selected audience, and is far, far, far, far, far from your typical American demographic that the DR enterprise targets.

But, if you listen to DR long enough, he does max out his 401k, roth IRA (uses backdoor), and contributes towards taxable accounts. I have never heard him say he invests in individual stocks... though would not be surprised if his personal portfolio had one or two. He's also a fan of the S&P500 index fund, but ventures into growth and aggressive growth managed funds.

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Wed Mar 14, 2018 5:23 pm

Pajamas wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:05 am
ACA wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:54 am
From DR website...

When you’re choosing your mutual funds, we recommend you invest in funds with a long history—10 years or more--of strong returns. Spread your investments across these four types of funds, with 25% in each type.

Growth and Income: These funds have a history of stable growth that also pay dividends. You might find these listed under the large-cap or large value fund categories. They can also called blue chip, dividend income or equity income funds.

Growth: These funds are made up of medium or large US companies that are still experiencing growth. These are more likely to ebb and flow with the economy. They can also be called mid-cap, large-cap, equity or growth funds.

Aggressive Growth: These funds are the wild child of your portfolio. When these funds are up, they’re up and when they’re down, they’re down.

International: These funds give you a chance to invest in big non-U.S. companies you already know and love. These are great because they spread your risk beyond U.S. soil. That way your retirement fund doesn’t totally tank if America goes through an unexpected downturn. They are also called foreign or overseas funds.

Never invest in anything you don’t understand, including how much you’re paying and why. No one cares about your future as much as you do, so take charge of your mutual fund education. Understand how they work, how much they cost and how the cost will affect your savings long-term.

Don’t chase returns. Before you commit to a fund, take a step back and consider the big picture. How has it performed over the past five years? What about the past 10 or 20 years? Look for mutual funds that stand the test of time and continue to deliver strong long-haul returns.


Seems like pretty decent advice. And arguably excellent advice compared to many of the Edward Jones types pedaling their services.
Seems very arbitrary to recommend 25% into each of those particular four types of funds, especially since three have "growth" as part of their name and the fourth is international.

The advice to choose particular funds based on past results and the big picture seems like a good idea superficially but is based on several incorrect assumptions.

Yes, there is worse advice out there, but that is not exactly a glowing endorsement. Only the absolute worst is the worst and everything else is better in comparison.
He likes the American Funds. While he does not name names, one could guess which ones he might use: Growth Fund of America, New Perspectives Fund, Investment Company of America or Washington Mutual Investors and Europacific Growth Fund. A similar type Vanguardian portfolio - Vanguard 500 Fund, Vanguard Total International Fund, Vanguard Small Cap Index and Vanguard Total Stock Market Index. Or, you can take out the Vanguard 500 fund and go with the 3 funder.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Wed Mar 14, 2018 5:25 pm

Helo80 wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 5:09 pm
munemaker wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:43 pm
Why would anyone on this forum take investing advice from Dave Ramsey?

This forum is a self-selected audience, and is far, far, far, far, far from your typical American demographic that the DR enterprise targets.

But, if you listen to DR long enough, he does max out his 401k, roth IRA (uses backdoor), and contributes towards taxable accounts. I have never heard him say he invests in individual stocks... though would not be surprised if his personal portfolio had one or two. He's also a fan of the S&P500 index fund, but ventures into growth and aggressive growth managed funds.
Have listened to his podcasts - for entertainment value.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by Helo80 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 6:02 pm

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 5:25 pm
Helo80 wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 5:09 pm
munemaker wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:43 pm
Why would anyone on this forum take investing advice from Dave Ramsey?

This forum is a self-selected audience, and is far, far, far, far, far from your typical American demographic that the DR enterprise targets.

But, if you listen to DR long enough, he does max out his 401k, roth IRA (uses backdoor), and contributes towards taxable accounts. I have never heard him say he invests in individual stocks... though would not be surprised if his personal portfolio had one or two. He's also a fan of the S&P500 index fund, but ventures into growth and aggressive growth managed funds.
Have listened to his podcasts - for entertainment value.


His show is great for financial entertainment, and I enjoy it better than paid weekend radio from financial gurus whom are hawking their various products under the guise of helping listeners.

I hope that you would agree that BH demographics are far from the regulars on his show.

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by Ben Mathew » Wed Mar 14, 2018 6:21 pm

boxcarwilly wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:38 am
[Dave Ramsey] told a listener/caller that owning bond funds is a waste of resources, and that the only way to go is to own stock funds in one's retirement portfolio. He further state that this is because interest rates affect bond fund returns and with the current climate of low interest rates, bond funds are highly likely to go down in value for the foreseeable future.
But Interest rates affect all assets, not just bonds. The current low interest rate environment has raised valuations of stocks, bonds, and real estate, as would be expected. An increase in interest rates will reduce all of those valuations. If someone is convinced that interest rates will rise soon, they should sell everything and put all their money in short term bonds, which is resistant to interest rate changes because of the short duration. After interest rates rise, they can buy stocks, long-term bonds, and real estate at reduced valuations. But of course, you probably shouldn't do this because we don't know when interest rates will go up or down. Trying to time that is a dangerous game.

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by Nate79 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 7:33 pm

To summarize every DR thread on BH no matter the starting topic:

BH think DR is stupid and his advice is stupid.
DR also thinks BHs are stupid (one podcast he really ranted against the people who only focus on fund expenses and index funds in general).
BH think they are too sophisticated for DR advice.
BH think that DR advice is only for poor broke people to get out of debt but will be making the mistake of their lifetime to ever listen to his investing advice.
BH think they can manage debt. DR thinks people who use debt are stupid and unsophisticated ignoring the risk involved.
DR thinks that bonds are stupid and that you should be 100% stock (index funds and mutual funds) but debt free and paid for house. BH have stock/bond allocation.

Am I missing anything?

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munemaker
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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by munemaker » Wed Mar 14, 2018 7:41 pm

Nate79 wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 7:33 pm
To summarize every DR thread on BH no matter the starting topic:

BH think DR is stupid and his advice is stupid.
DR also thinks BHs are stupid (one podcast he really ranted against the people who only focus on fund expenses and index funds in general).
BH think they are too sophisticated for DR advice.
BH think that DR advice is only for poor broke people to get out of debt but will be making the mistake of their lifetime to ever listen to his investing advice.
BH think they can manage debt. DR thinks people who use debt are stupid and unsophisticated ignoring the risk involved.
DR thinks that bonds are stupid and that you should be 100% stock (index funds and mutual funds) but debt free and paid for house. BH have stock/bond allocation.

Am I missing anything?
Nice summary.

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Wed Mar 14, 2018 7:45 pm

Helo80 wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 6:02 pm
Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 5:25 pm
Helo80 wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 5:09 pm
munemaker wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:43 pm
Why would anyone on this forum take investing advice from Dave Ramsey?

This forum is a self-selected audience, and is far, far, far, far, far from your typical American demographic that the DR enterprise targets.

But, if you listen to DR long enough, he does max out his 401k, roth IRA (uses backdoor), and contributes towards taxable accounts. I have never heard him say he invests in individual stocks... though would not be surprised if his personal portfolio had one or two. He's also a fan of the S&P500 index fund, but ventures into growth and aggressive growth managed funds.
Have listened to his podcasts - for entertainment value.


His show is great for financial entertainment, and I enjoy it better than paid weekend radio from financial gurus whom are hawking their various products under the guise of helping listeners.

I hope that you would agree that BH demographics are far from the regulars on his show.
Agreed. Also agree hearing him specifically recommend using Vanguard S&P 500 fund or even Fidelity. Also heard him say insurance agents are not investment advisers, they are sellers of insurance products and would not use them for investment advice.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

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Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Wed Mar 14, 2018 7:46 pm

munemaker wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 7:41 pm
Nate79 wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 7:33 pm
To summarize every DR thread on BH no matter the starting topic:

BH think DR is stupid and his advice is stupid.
DR also thinks BHs are stupid (one podcast he really ranted against the people who only focus on fund expenses and index funds in general).
BH think they are too sophisticated for DR advice.
BH think that DR advice is only for poor broke people to get out of debt but will be making the mistake of their lifetime to ever listen to his investing advice.
BH think they can manage debt. DR thinks people who use debt are stupid and unsophisticated ignoring the risk involved.
DR thinks that bonds are stupid and that you should be 100% stock (index funds and mutual funds) but debt free and paid for house. BH have stock/bond allocation.

Am I missing anything?
Nice summary.
Lol. +1
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

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