Interesting interactive guide to early retirement & FI

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mhalley
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Interesting interactive guide to early retirement & FI

Post by mhalley » Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:00 am

Came accross this link at POF. Interesting way to learn and at the same time figure out how to get to FI.
.This post is an experiment. Imagine a calculator, a choose-your-own-adventure book, a series of interviews & a guide to early retirement and financial independence all rolled into one!
https://minafi.com/interactive-guide-ea ... ependence/

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corn18
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Re: Interesting interactive guide to early retirement & FI

Post by corn18 » Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:24 am

Where's the like button? Thanks for posting this.

Goinganontoday
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Re: Interesting interactive guide to early retirement & FI

Post by Goinganontoday » Sun Mar 11, 2018 1:15 pm

I had fun working out the numbers in this article. I’m curious what others think of it.

billthecat
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Re: Interesting interactive guide to early retirement & FI

Post by billthecat » Sun Mar 11, 2018 1:32 pm

If I don't spend money like a drunken sailor, I could retire now. Whoa.

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walletless
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Re: Interesting interactive guide to early retirement & FI

Post by walletless » Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:06 pm

Great calculator. Years ago, I did a similar calculation using Excel formulas, and the numbers almost match (within few months of this calculator). Very useful, thanks for sharing, OP!

orlandious
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Re: Interesting interactive guide to early retirement & FI

Post by orlandious » Sun Mar 11, 2018 6:57 pm

Thanks for sharing my guide! It was a lot of fun to create - trying to do something that would draw in people who maybe weren't aware of FI/Investing.

Like anything though, there's always room for improvement. Let me know what you think.

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walletless
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Re: Interesting interactive guide to early retirement & FI

Post by walletless » Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:10 pm

orlandious wrote:
Sun Mar 11, 2018 6:57 pm
Thanks for sharing my guide! It was a lot of fun to create - trying to do something that would draw in people who maybe weren't aware of FI/Investing.

Like anything though, there's always room for improvement. Let me know what you think.
Great guide. I'm being nitpicky with my suggestions below. It's a great guide even without these:

1) when I select which age I want to FI, the guide tells how much I'm off by. In addition, you can also say what amount I need to save each year if I still want to FI at my goal age
2) large expense: guide could factor in optional large expense (such as 4 year college when the little one turns 18) that are expected.. in some cases, withdrawing the 4% may not be enough for the listed scenario in some years due to such expenses. Or, the savings will drop for those few years.

orlandious
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Re: Interesting interactive guide to early retirement & FI

Post by orlandious » Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:06 pm

large expense: guide could factor in optional large expense
That'd be a cool one! A bunch of people have requested that as well.

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Clever_Username
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Re: Interesting interactive guide to early retirement & FI

Post by Clever_Username » Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:28 pm

mhalley wrote:
Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:00 am
Came accross this link at POF.
I'm having trouble parsing this much. What's POF? I am assuming you don't mean the dating app.
"What was true then is true now. Have a plan. Stick to it." -- XXXX, _Layer Cake_

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walletless
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Re: Interesting interactive guide to early retirement & FI

Post by walletless » Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:30 pm

Clever_Username wrote:
Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:28 pm
mhalley wrote:
Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:00 am
Came accross this link at POF.
I'm having trouble parsing this much. What's POF? I am assuming you don't mean the dating app.
I'm assuming "Physician on FIRE" https://www.physicianonfire.com/

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Clever_Username
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Re: Interesting interactive guide to early retirement & FI

Post by Clever_Username » Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:38 pm

walletless wrote:
Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:30 pm
Clever_Username wrote:
Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:28 pm
mhalley wrote:
Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:00 am
Came accross this link at POF.
I'm having trouble parsing this much. What's POF? I am assuming you don't mean the dating app.
I'm assuming "Physician on FIRE" https://www.physicianonfire.com/
Wasn't aware of that site; thanks!
"What was true then is true now. Have a plan. Stick to it." -- XXXX, _Layer Cake_

deikel
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Re: Interesting interactive guide to early retirement & FI

Post by deikel » Mon Mar 12, 2018 4:24 pm

Wanted to give this a bump since the web page is a great summary and touches a lot of FI aspects, worth a visit IMO
Everything you read in this post is my personal opinion. If you disagree with this disclaimer, please un-read the text immidiatly and destroy any copy or remembrance of it.

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PhysicianOnFIRE
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Re: Interesting interactive guide to early retirement & FI

Post by PhysicianOnFIRE » Mon Mar 12, 2018 4:44 pm

Clever_Username wrote:
Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:28 pm
mhalley wrote:
Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:00 am
Came accross this link at POF.
I'm having trouble parsing this much. What's POF? I am assuming you don't mean the dating app.
As a married man who met his wife before internet dating was popular, I was utterly clueless as to the existence of another POF (plenty of fish) when I started using the handle. I've tried to differentiate by typing it out PoF. A subtle difference, but it's all I've got.

Happy Investing (and happy internet dating, if that's your thing)!

:beer
-PoF

p.s. I really enjoyed the interactive guide. More fun than a plain ol' spreadsheet, and I like plain ol' spreadsheets.

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Hub
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Re: Interesting interactive guide to early retirement & FI

Post by Hub » Mon Mar 12, 2018 6:07 pm

Thanks for posting this. Great layout and presentation without being much trouble to get the numbers into. Especially for those of us that have them all ready to go in a spreadsheet for such an occasion. :)
Last edited by Hub on Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:31 am, edited 1 time in total.

gluskap
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Re: Interesting interactive guide to early retirement & FI

Post by gluskap » Mon Mar 12, 2018 6:18 pm

Wow loved this post. It pretty much summed up what I had concluded about how many more years to FI for me but cool to see it condensed and broken down like this.

keinodoggy
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Re: Interesting interactive guide to early retirement & FI

Post by keinodoggy » Mon Mar 12, 2018 6:40 pm

Minafi's Take On Your Finances
Given your 22% SR and a net worth $800,000, if you continue to invest $11,000/yr, then you're on track to be financially independent in 0 years – at age 61 years 1 months.

At age 61 years 1 months, you would need $800,000 in retirement savings and can start withdrawing $32,000/yr.
I'm 61 yrs 2 months. Guess I am FI and was not aware I was, but still plan to work until 65!
:sharebeer

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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Interesting interactive guide to early retirement & FI

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:06 pm

another thumbs up. Enjoyed the interactive part. I wonder what non-bogleheads make of this. In other words, how user friendly do people who aren't familiar with investing and maybe fear math find the website? Can orlandius give any feedback he's received from newbies who have visited his page?
"Invest we must." -- Jack Bogle | “The purpose of investing is not to simply optimise returns and make yourself rich. The purpose is not to die poor.” -- William Bernstein

orlandious
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Re: Interesting interactive guide to early retirement & FI

Post by orlandious » Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:12 pm

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:06 pm
another thumbs up. Enjoyed the interactive part. I wonder what non-bogleheads make of this. In other words, how user friendly do people who aren't familiar with investing and maybe fear math find the website? Can orlandius give any feedback he's received from newbies who have visited his page?
I've received extremely positive feedback from people who usually are turned off by financial posts from this interactive guide! Sure, some of them were my friends, but still :P

All of the results from the guide are anonymously aggregated. If you're curious about how the spread of how users shake out, I did a follow up grouping them by generation. https://minafi.com/millennial-early-retirement-age/

The biggest takeaway from that analysis was that the age that is reading this guide skews VERY young. 60% of people using it are 33 or younger. The biggest takeaways from people I've talked to in person that weren't familiar with the subject were what "withdrawal rate" and "compound interest" are. Knowing about compound interest is one thing, but seeing how it could impact you is another thing. I think the idea of nailing those two topics, even without trying to dive into the math behind them, made it a little easier to explain the possibility to a novice.

Explain the possibility is a good way to think about it. It's not the hard work of learning how to invest, sticking with it year after year or sticking to a budget. It's more just showing that's it's possible and giving them a nudge to start the journey.

The biggest areas of confusion so far have been: inflation, which accounts to use and how retiring early works with accounts you can't access until you're 59.5 or later (401k, IRA, Roth). The inflation one has been one of the hardest ones for me to address - since it's a tough one to plan for, especially since inflation hits people differently based on their lifestyles. The other ones have actual answers, but addressing inflation relies on a few too many variables and opens up a can of worms.

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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Interesting interactive guide to early retirement & FI

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:19 pm

thank you for your response. I have a couple questions.

1. How did you come to the statement "Stock markets in the US have returned on average 7% a year since their beginning." I'm not disputing this number per se. It could be conservative or aggressive depending on the timeframe going forward. But do you think you could provide a source that shows where/why you're using 7%/year instead of say 8% per year?

Or are you using a blend of stocks/bonds? You cite the 3 fund portfolio, which INCLUDES bonds. However, this usually reduces returns by 0.5% per every 10% in bonds you add to the portfolio. You are only mentioning 7% in the context of stocks (not stocks and bonds) so I'm a little confused why you're mentioning 7% from the stock market, but then mention the three fund portfolio which includes bonds and then would reduce that 7% return.

2. And a natural follow-up to that is, the rate of return will be different with a 30/70 portfolio from a 70/30. I see someone can make an adjustment from 0.1% all the way to 20% returns on your interactive guide. How is someone supposed to know what percentage to use when determining their rate of growth? I don't see it mentioned on the interactive guide. Maybe this is more complicated to introduce at this stage and to be covered in later guides or the weekly investing emails. Or maybe you're assuming someone will be 100% in stocks until a certain age (and then will have the 3 fund portoflio?)? I don't know.

Vanguard's site says the stock market has earned 10.2% per year going back from 1926-2016 (granted nobody I know will be investing for the next 90 years):

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insigh ... llocations
"Invest we must." -- Jack Bogle | “The purpose of investing is not to simply optimise returns and make yourself rich. The purpose is not to die poor.” -- William Bernstein

NillaNumberNine
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Re: Interesting interactive guide to early retirement & FI

Post by NillaNumberNine » Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:59 pm

walletless wrote:
Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:10 pm
orlandious wrote:
Sun Mar 11, 2018 6:57 pm
Thanks for sharing my guide! It was a lot of fun to create - trying to do something that would draw in people who maybe weren't aware of FI/Investing.

Like anything though, there's always room for improvement. Let me know what you think.
Great guide. I'm being nitpicky with my suggestions below. It's a great guide even without these:

1) when I select which age I want to FI, the guide tells how much I'm off by. In addition, you can also say what amount I need to save each year if I still want to FI at my goal age
2) large expense: guide could factor in optional large expense (such as 4 year college when the little one turns 18) that are expected.. in some cases, withdrawing the 4% may not be enough for the listed scenario in some years due to such expenses. Or, the savings will drop for those few years.
I had the same thought about large expenses. I was surprised to see I may be FI at age 50. Unfortunately that will be about the same time one kid is starting college and the other is finishing undergrad (and currently hopes to go to law school).

The other thing that struck me is that I have almost everything in 401k and IRA. I feel like I need to consider non retirement savings now. Not that I plan to retire at 50, but between job instability and burnout,, I may want to choose a new adventure.

HongKonger
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Re: Interesting interactive guide to early retirement & FI

Post by HongKonger » Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:19 pm

It would appear from the guide that if I learned about investing from a free 10 week course, I could retire 111 years earlier.
As it stands however, I'm all good because the guide told me I hit FI a month ago.

I actually retired 5 years ago :beer

cantos
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Re: Interesting interactive guide to early retirement & FI

Post by cantos » Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:46 pm

A nice site. I find most of these sites don't account for kids or spouses (dual income?) very well. Would be pretty awesome if it also asked how many kids, what the age of kids are, and how much tuition will be for the kids in university (as I think most of us would like to pay for our childrens' tuition at least in undergrad).

orlandious
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Re: Interesting interactive guide to early retirement & FI

Post by orlandious » Thu Mar 15, 2018 12:38 am

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:19 pm
1. How did you come to the statement "Stock markets in the US have returned on average 7% a year since their beginning." But do you think you could provide a source that shows where/why you're using 7%/year instead of say 8% per year?
Good catch! That probably should read "a diversified portfolio could return 7%" as opposed to making it a statement about the US market. That's the intention there. Even that is very conservative. I leaned more towards rounding down for these than giving people too high numbers.
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:19 pm
Or are you using a blend of stocks/bonds? You cite the 3 fund portfolio, which INCLUDES bonds. However, this usually reduces returns by 0.5% per every 10% in bonds you add to the portfolio. You are only mentioning 7% in the context of stocks (not stocks and bonds) so I'm a little confused why you're mentioning 7% from the stock market, but then mention the three fund portfolio which includes bonds and then would reduce that 7% return.
Yep, you called it. That's an interesting formula -- every 10% bonds = 0.5% return decrease. Maybe I should up the default to at least 8%? That'd be 40% bonds by that formula, which is still crazy conservative.
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:19 pm
2. And a natural follow-up to that is, the rate of return will be different with a 30/70 portfolio from a 70/30. I see someone can make an adjustment from 0.1% all the way to 20% returns on your interactive guide. How is someone supposed to know what percentage to use when determining their rate of growth? I don't see it mentioned on the interactive guide. Maybe this is more complicated to introduce at this stage and to be covered in later guides or the weekly investing emails. Or maybe you're assuming someone will be 100% in stocks until a certain age (and then will have the 3 fund portoflio?)? I don't know.
Yeah, it's tricky to not get too deep into a topic for a beginner. I don't even get into asset allocation in this guide to keep it as simple as possible. How someone gets the rate of return they select in the guide is mostly left as an exercise for the reader to find out -- either from linked articles, forums, books or elsewhere. More about introducing that 7% was possible then letting them go down the rabbit hole to make it happen.

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:19 pm
Vanguard's site says the stock market has earned 10.2% per year going back from 1926-2016 (granted nobody I know will be investing for the next 90 years): https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insigh ... llocations
I'm going to give some thought to mentioning this! And mention a "diversified portfolio" example rate of return. What I worry about is someone who's never read about investing seeing US Market=10.2, diversified portfolio = 8, ie US Market is better than diversified portfolio.

By introducing a new topic like that, it adds a bunch of additional things to clarify it, which is a few more changes to lose people. It'd be awesome to work it in though, if there's a good way.

Thanks for the feedback!

orlandious
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Re: Interesting interactive guide to early retirement & FI

Post by orlandious » Thu Mar 15, 2018 12:43 am

cantos wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:46 pm
A nice site. I find most of these sites don't account for kids or spouses (dual income?) very well. Would be pretty awesome if it also asked how many kids, what the age of kids are, and how much tuition will be for the kids in university (as I think most of us would like to pay for our childrens' tuition at least in undergrad).
Thanks! Very true there. Trying to make it more complicated for power users (ex: income events at future dates, large spending at future dates) the math starts to go beyond my novice math skills level. To make these work, I had pages and pages of journals and reading the code from finance tools. These would be awesome to add though, but I might need a few math classes before that.

mhalley
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Re: Interesting interactive guide to early retirement & FI

Post by mhalley » Thu Mar 15, 2018 1:26 am

I should know better than to post abbreviations, thanks for posting the clarification about POF meaning physician on fire.

pennywise
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Re: Interesting interactive guide to early retirement & FI

Post by pennywise » Thu Mar 15, 2018 8:36 am

It seems useless to me because on a quick read and inclusion of numbers there's nowhere to account for income streams such as pensions and social security-unless I missed that. I tried pushing up the percentage that can be earned via 'side gigs' to cover the majority of our income needs to include what we'll get from those sources but it didn't really factor in.

I guess this is very dependent on being a younger person with only savings as the retirement vehicle? Otherwise there wasn't anything helpful for this 60 year old with a pension and SS benefits coming in along with savings :?

bhleigh
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Re: Interesting interactive guide to early retirement & FI

Post by bhleigh » Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:49 am

Very cool guide. Any way to add a pension to the calculations? Also, if I become FI according to your calculator but my money is tied up in retirement accounts, am I still actually FI?
There are no problems, only solutions we have not found yet.

walkindude
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Re: Interesting interactive guide to early retirement & FI

Post by walkindude » Thu Mar 15, 2018 12:23 pm

orlandious wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:12 pm
The biggest takeaway from that analysis was that the age that is reading this guide skews VERY young. 60% of people using it are 33 or younger. The biggest takeaways from people I've talked to in person that weren't familiar with the subject were what "withdrawal rate" and "compound interest" are. Knowing about compound interest is one thing, but seeing how it could impact you is another thing. I think the idea of nailing those two topics, even without trying to dive into the math behind them, made it a little easier to explain the possibility to a novice.
With your exposure here, I'm guessing that 60% number goes down a bit!

Without SS and pensions included, it's not as useful for a 60 year old as it is for a 30 year old, though.

Good work - it probably does attract the more casual user who may fear finances and retirement.

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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Interesting interactive guide to early retirement & FI

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Thu Mar 15, 2018 4:51 pm

orlandious wrote:
Thu Mar 15, 2018 12:38 am
Yep, you called it. That's an interesting formula -- every 10% bonds = 0.5% return decrease. Maybe I should up the default to at least 8%? That'd be 40% bonds by that formula, which is still crazy conservative.
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:19 pm
2. And a natural follow-up to that is, the rate of return will be different with a 30/70 portfolio from a 70/30. I see someone can make an adjustment from 0.1% all the way to 20% returns on your interactive guide. How is someone supposed to know what percentage to use when determining their rate of growth? I don't see it mentioned on the interactive guide. Maybe this is more complicated to introduce at this stage and to be covered in later guides or the weekly investing emails. Or maybe you're assuming someone will be 100% in stocks until a certain age (and then will have the 3 fund portoflio?)? I don't know.
Yeah, it's tricky to not get too deep into a topic for a beginner. I don't even get into asset allocation in this guide to keep it as simple as possible. How someone gets the rate of return they select in the guide is mostly left as an exercise for the reader to find out -- either from linked articles, forums, books or elsewhere. More about introducing that 7% was possible then letting them go down the rabbit hole to make it happen.

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:19 pm
Vanguard's site says the stock market has earned 10.2% per year going back from 1926-2016 (granted nobody I know will be investing for the next 90 years): https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insigh ... llocations
I'm going to give some thought to mentioning this! And mention a "diversified portfolio" example rate of return. What I worry about is someone who's never read about investing seeing US Market=10.2, diversified portfolio = 8, ie US Market is better than diversified portfolio.
Thanks. My only concern about using the numbers Vanguard provides is that:
1. they're in the past. no one knows the future returns
2. they're based on a 90 year investment (in the past). Not many have a 90 year horizon going forward.

I think it's aggressive to expect 10.2% a year from the stock market (but who knows). I tend to agree more with the 7%-8% per year range which doubles an investment every 10 years. I think that's reasonable. But even so, experts (like Bogle, Bernstein, and others) are expecting less over the next 10 years, so it's not a slam dunk. So I'd be wary assuming a 60/40 portfolio would yield 8% going forward. Maybe over a long enough time frame (or when bonds get back to the 4%-5% interest rate range, then it's possible. That's a big part of why the returns were higher in the past (bond interest rates paid higher interest than currently/recently)

Finally, I agree with pennywise (not about the site not being useful) that the amount of income needed from the portfolio (the 4%) is what's needed AFTER accounting for SSA and/or pension. This is a big factor. Those with pensions, may need to save less and those without will need to save more. Perhaps you can add some code/lines about what other income they might be expecting, which naturally will reduce the amount needed to save. I never want to discourage saving, but there is the possibility that people save too much (especially if they're expecting other income sources to live on). Of course, if that's true, then I suppose they're F.I.R.E. that much sooner. I know it's complicated to know what income you might receive (but one can be directed to ssa.gov to get the amount and use whatever pension is currently reported, though it may go up over time due to raises...the amount of my projected pension surely does).
"Invest we must." -- Jack Bogle | “The purpose of investing is not to simply optimise returns and make yourself rich. The purpose is not to die poor.” -- William Bernstein

orlandious
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Re: Interesting interactive guide to early retirement & FI

Post by orlandious » Sun Mar 18, 2018 2:31 pm

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Thu Mar 15, 2018 4:51 pm
Finally, I agree with pennywise (not about the site not being useful) that the amount of income needed from the portfolio (the 4%) is what's needed AFTER accounting for SSA and/or pension. This is a big factor. Those with pensions, may need to save less and those without will need to save more. Perhaps you can add some code/lines about what other income they might be expecting, which naturally will reduce the amount needed to save.
Good point here. In the section towards the bottom where there are a few "what-ifs" (what if you spend less? What if you earn money in retirement?) I think it'd be a good addition to add something about a pension/SS in there, with the age and amount it kicks in. That would've solve all potential later in life evets. There's soooo many it'd be unrealistic to account for everything. Large expenses (new house, move, college, etc), taking a break from work for years, receiving large influxes of cash (inheritance, sale of business, etc). All of these only happen to some people, but currently social security is something that happens to everyone. Makes sense to add it. Thanks for the feedback!

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