U.S. stocks in freefall

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tigermilk
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by tigermilk » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:18 pm

Noobvestor wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:11 pm
This could pretty easily have tripped some people's rebalancing bands, FWIW.
I went through some preliminary numbers, and my AA barely moved. I'm 88/12 in my primary, almost 2 comma balance, I expect a change to 87.5/12.5 Tuesday morning. Sucks to have lost over $60k in the last week, but I'm still going to be up for the year!

adamsapple19
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by adamsapple19 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:18 pm

technovelist wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:59 pm
MrNewEngland wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:53 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:38 pm


People need to stop wishing for a crash. At least out loud. Even if YOU don't get hurt, many people will.
I've been thinking the exact same thing when I've been reading this thread for the past week.
Don't worry. As soon as we see a REAL crash, like in 2008, just about all of the people who have been calling for one will change their tune.
Not a chance. We are mid 30s and literally just got into a position to max IRAs and a 403b effective ~Nov.

Sick to my stomach to see the overvalued prices we've been buying in at since then. Would more than welcome (and likely will NEED) a "REAL" crash (at some point) to realize returns that translate into retirement stability .. something many folks in our generation won't have for any number of reasons.

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fishandgolf
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by fishandgolf » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:19 pm

madbrain wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:16 pm
CULater wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:21 pm
It's official. You dip-buyers stepping up or are you hiding under the covers??

STOCK ROUT IN FULL FORCE, DOW IN FREE FALL DOWN MORE THAN 1,000 POINTS
Not enough of a drop to justify buying yet. We are only talking about 6-7% in a week. Not even at proper correction level. Wake me when it's at least 20%.

+1000....yep......a few more days like this....might be time to shake the piggy bank...... :sharebeer

alfaspider
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by alfaspider » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:19 pm

madbrain wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:16 pm
CULater wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:21 pm
It's official. You dip-buyers stepping up or are you hiding under the covers??

STOCK ROUT IN FULL FORCE, DOW IN FREE FALL DOWN MORE THAN 1,000 POINTS
Not enough of a drop to justify buying yet. We are only talking about 6-7% in a week. Not even at proper correction level. Wake me when it's at least 20%.
Technically, a correction is a 10% drop within a one year period. 20% is a bear market. We hit a technical correction in intra-day trading today:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/05/the-dow ... -drop.html

I personally don't understand all the talk of "buying the dips." That implies the putative buyer was sitting in a lot of cash beforehand. Why? Instead of timing the market, just keep doing what you should always be doing if in your accumulation phase- slow and steady buying in tandem with income.
Last edited by alfaspider on Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TomatoTomahto » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:20 pm

thangngo wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:45 pm
TomatoTomahto wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:48 pm
RRAAYY3 wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 5:00 pm
How are you guys breaking the news to loved ones?
"Honey, according to Livesoft's rule, we can buy another Tesla!"
Well... do you have 3 Tesla in your garage now? :mrgreen:
I might have to look at a Bentley Bentayga :oops:

Just kidding, I'm a committed electric car fan, although my wife isn't. :D
Zero Net Carbon by 2019.

RetireBy55
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RetireBy55 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:21 pm

MrNewEngland wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:53 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:38 pm


People need to stop wishing for a crash. At least out loud. Even if YOU don't get hurt, many people will.
I've been thinking the exact same thing when I've been reading this thread for the past week.
EXACTLY. Some of us are literally on the verge of retirement. Others are IN retirement. People like us don't have 20+ year horizons and watch what's essentially an entire year's worth of living expenses vaporized in one day's trading.

selters
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by selters » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:25 pm

RetireBy55 wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:21 pm
MrNewEngland wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:53 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:38 pm


People need to stop wishing for a crash. At least out loud. Even if YOU don't get hurt, many people will.
I've been thinking the exact same thing when I've been reading this thread for the past week.
EXACTLY. Some of us are literally on the verge of retirement. Others are IN retirement. People like us don't have 20+ year horizons and watch what's essentially an entire year's worth of living expenses vaporized in one day's trading.
It's hard to argue about this without getting all political about wealth redistribution and all that.

madbrain
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by madbrain » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:27 pm

adamsapple19 wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:18 pm
technovelist wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:59 pm
Don't worry. As soon as we see a REAL crash, like in 2008, just about all of the people who have been calling for one will change their tune.
Not a chance. We are mid 30s and literally just got into a position to max IRAs and a 403b effective ~Nov.

Sick to my stomach to see the overvalued prices we've been buying in at since then. Would more than welcome (and likely will NEED) a "REAL" crash (at some point) to realize returns that translate into retirement stability .. something many folks in our generation won't have for any number of reasons.
If the crash is really as bad as it was in 2008, either or both of you may be at risk of losing your jobs. Health events could also cause you to reconsider your wish, even if less likely when you are young. I turned HIV+ at age 30 and so did my bf at the time (now husband).

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TomatoTomahto » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:28 pm

RetireBy55 wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:21 pm
MrNewEngland wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:53 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:38 pm


People need to stop wishing for a crash. At least out loud. Even if YOU don't get hurt, many people will.
I've been thinking the exact same thing when I've been reading this thread for the past week.
EXACTLY. Some of us are literally on the verge of retirement. Others are IN retirement. People like us don't have 20+ year horizons and watch what's essentially an entire year's worth of living expenses vaporized in one day's trading.
I'm far from glee about this, but most of us here, at least those nearing or in retirement, are adults. It's become quite the thing to blast bonds/FI as an investment here lately, well, what does one expect?

I'm sorry for the people hurt. However, it does make me feel much better about my Liability Matching Portfolio.
Zero Net Carbon by 2019.

madbrain
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by madbrain » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:30 pm

alfaspider wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:19 pm
Technically, a correction is a 10% drop within a one year period. 20% is a bear market. We hit a technical correction in intra-day trading today:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/05/the-dow ... -drop.html
Good thing I was asleep during market hours, and 95% of my investments are in mutual funds, investment trusts in 401k and stable value that don't have intra-day prices or even public prices for some. I still don't know how much my portfolio dropped and won't know for another 6 hours. The lone security I have that trades intraday and has a closing price already is VWO ETF which dropped 3.21%.

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knpstr
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by knpstr » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:31 pm

S&P 500 down 1.4% YTD... looking to go from all equities to all cash. IPS says: "act on impulse"

Thoughts?
Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking. -Marcus Aurelius

madbrain
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by madbrain » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:36 pm

fishandgolf wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:19 pm
+1000....yep......a few more days like this....might be time to shake the piggy bank...... :sharebeer
Real bogleheads don't keep cash on the side, they rebalance their bonds into stocks.

That said, if we are actually in for a 50% drop like in 2008, I may draw a check on the HELOC at that point. But won't be selling any equity shares on the way down.

madbrain
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by madbrain » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:36 pm

knpstr wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:31 pm
S&P 500 down 1.4% YTD... looking to go from all equities to all cash. IPS says: "act on impulse"

Thoughts?
LOL

Da5id
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Da5id » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:38 pm

knpstr wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:31 pm
S&P 500 down 1.4% YTD... looking to go from all equities to all cash. IPS says: "act on impulse"

Thoughts?
As along as that is what your IPS says, go to it! I think you need to revise your IPS. It may be time for canned goods, gold, and small arms, half measures like all cash are an insufficient response to this unprecedented disaster.

runner540
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by runner540 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:40 pm

RetireBy55 wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:21 pm
MrNewEngland wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:53 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:38 pm


People need to stop wishing for a crash. At least out loud. Even if YOU don't get hurt, many people will.
I've been thinking the exact same thing when I've been reading this thread for the past week.
EXACTLY. Some of us are literally on the verge of retirement. Others are IN retirement. People like us don't have 20+ year horizons and watch what's essentially an entire year's worth of living expenses vaporized in one day's trading.
That "entire year's worth of living expenses" materialized over a month or two (Dec/Jan). Did you feel that was too quick? Sounds like you might have a more aggressive asset allocation than is appropriate for your time frame/mentality. Take a read here:
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=240480
viewtopic.php?p=3489207#p3489207
Last edited by runner540 on Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

aqan
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by aqan » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:40 pm

knpstr wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:31 pm
S&P 500 down 1.4% YTD... looking to go from all equities to all cash. IPS says: "act on impulse"

Thoughts?
And when do you plan to go back in?

Engineer250
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Engineer250 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:41 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:09 pm
MI_bogle wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:05 pm
Ren wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:53 pm
eye.surgeon wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:51 pm
vanguard.com is down....
Yes it is....sigh...great timing.
there's a market timing joke in here somewhere...
Actually, I find all of these comments about buying today to be quite funny. The Boglehead philosophy says "don't time the market," yet many here are shoving far more into the market today than they were when the market was at this level not long ago. 8-)

Being a trend follower, I can't say that I blame them entirely for making this move, but I think that it is largely a subjective, rather than objective, decision for most.
As evidenced by yourself, not everyone that posts here follows Boglehead philosophy religiously. Also, reporting bias; those that chose to do something today are more likely to post than those that didn’t.
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.

Da5id
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Da5id » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:42 pm

aqan wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:40 pm
knpstr wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:31 pm
S&P 500 down 1.4% YTD... looking to go from all equities to all cash. IPS says: "act on impulse"

Thoughts?
And when do you plan to go back in?
I bet he goes back in when his sense of humor is better appreciated.

desafinado
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by desafinado » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:43 pm

desafinado wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:12 pm
an interesting puzzle is the 60% drop after hours in XIV.
It looks like XIV will be liquidated.

Bacchus01
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Bacchus01 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:43 pm

jehovasfitness wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:40 pm
For someone 25-30 yrs from retirement, with <100k in 401k, with plans of maxing out 2 401ks starting later this year, am I crazy in thinking this is a good thing?
Neither good nor bad really. It just is.

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ruralavalon
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ruralavalon » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:44 pm

knpstr wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:31 pm
S&P 500 down 1.4% YTD... looking to go from all equities to all cash. IPS says: "act on impulse"

Thoughts?
That's quite an IPS you have.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

sjwoo
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sjwoo » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:45 pm

RetireBy55 wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:21 pm
MrNewEngland wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:53 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:38 pm


People need to stop wishing for a crash. At least out loud. Even if YOU don't get hurt, many people will.
I've been thinking the exact same thing when I've been reading this thread for the past week.
EXACTLY. Some of us are literally on the verge of retirement. Others are IN retirement. People like us don't have 20+ year horizons and watch what's essentially an entire year's worth of living expenses vaporized in one day's trading.
But if you are gonna be on the verge of retirement and since you're a Boglehead, I'm guessing you've already set aside a sum in bonds or SVF for the next 2-3 years, right? So it's not like you'll be selling beaten-up equities to live on.

The only time the price of stocks matters is when you are going to sell it. Otherwise it's just numbers on a website/spreadsheet...

(BTW, I'm trying to make myself feel better, too! :? )

aqan
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by aqan » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:45 pm

RetireBy55 wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:21 pm
MrNewEngland wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:53 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:38 pm


People need to stop wishing for a crash. At least out loud. Even if YOU don't get hurt, many people will.
I've been thinking the exact same thing when I've been reading this thread for the past week.
EXACTLY. Some of us are literally on the verge of retirement. Others are IN retirement. People like us don't have 20+ year horizons and watch what's essentially an entire year's worth of living expenses vaporized in one day's trading.
You know wishes don’t work on stock market (and most other things) otherwise I would be a millionaire long time ago:)
If you’re close to retirement and want to sleep well at night change your AA now. It’s not too late.

RRAAYY3
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RRAAYY3 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:47 pm

We have plummeted all the way back to mid December

Pandemonium ! (As a 100/0 investor, all I know is I won’t be anywhere near 100/0 as retirement nears)

Bacchus01
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Bacchus01 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:47 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:38 pm
jehovasfitness wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:40 pm
For someone 25-30 yrs from retirement, with <100k in 401k, with plans of maxing out 2 401ks starting later this year, am I crazy in thinking this is a good thing?
Unless it turns into a recession and you lose your job.

People need to stop wishing for a crash. At least out loud. Even if YOU don't get hurt, many people will.
The DOW prices create recessions? Huh?

Bacchus01
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Bacchus01 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:47 pm

technovelist wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:59 pm
MrNewEngland wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:53 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:38 pm


People need to stop wishing for a crash. At least out loud. Even if YOU don't get hurt, many people will.
I've been thinking the exact same thing when I've been reading this thread for the past week.
Don't worry. As soon as we see a REAL crash, like in 2008, just about all of the people who have been calling for one will change their tune.
No, they won't. Most won't.

Bacchus01
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Bacchus01 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:49 pm

RetireBy55 wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:21 pm
MrNewEngland wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:53 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:38 pm


People need to stop wishing for a crash. At least out loud. Even if YOU don't get hurt, many people will.
I've been thinking the exact same thing when I've been reading this thread for the past week.
EXACTLY. Some of us are literally on the verge of retirement. Others are IN retirement. People like us don't have 20+ year horizons and watch what's essentially an entire year's worth of living expenses vaporized in one day's trading.
If stability is important to you, why do you have that much in the market at all?

madbrain
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by madbrain » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:51 pm

Bacchus01 wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:47 pm
The DOW prices create recessions? Huh?
http://www.nber.org/papers/w19391
(S&P500 referenced there, but same difference)

CULater
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CULater » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:53 pm

madbrain wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:16 pm
CULater wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:21 pm
It's official. You dip-buyers stepping up or are you hiding under the covers??

STOCK ROUT IN FULL FORCE, DOW IN FREE FALL DOWN MORE THAN 1,000 POINTS
Not enough of a drop to justify buying yet. We are only talking about 6-7% in a week. Not even at proper correction level. Wake me when it's at least 20%.
Here's the way it goes. Market drops 5%-10% and you think "it hasn't dropped enough yet to buy." So you don't buy. Then it drops 10%-15% and you say "Hey this is getting serious, it could go down some more so I'll wait" and you don't buy again. Then it drops 15%-20% and you say "Geez, this is really turning into a bad bear market" and you start to get pretty nervous, and you still don't buy in the face of all these losses and the bad news all around. Then it goes down 20%-25% and you say, "It would be nuts to try to grab this falling knife." Then it drops over 25% and you start hiding under the covers and thinking about dogfood recipes. BTW, do you know of any good dogfood recipes? I like to plan ahead.
May you have the hindsight to know where you've been, The foresight to know where you're going, And the insight to know when you've gone too far. ~ Irish Blessing

aqan
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by aqan » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:57 pm

CULater wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:53 pm
madbrain wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:16 pm
CULater wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:21 pm
It's official. You dip-buyers stepping up or are you hiding under the covers??

STOCK ROUT IN FULL FORCE, DOW IN FREE FALL DOWN MORE THAN 1,000 POINTS
Not enough of a drop to justify buying yet. We are only talking about 6-7% in a week. Not even at proper correction level. Wake me when it's at least 20%.
Here's the way it goes. Market drops 5%-10% and you think "it hasn't dropped enough yet to buy." So you don't buy. Then it drops 10%-15% and you say "Hey this is getting serious, it could go down some more so I'll wait" and you don't buy again. Then it drops 15%-20% and you say "Geez, this is really turning into a bad bear market" and you start to get pretty nervous, and you still don't buy in the face of all these losses and the bad news all around. Then it goes down 20%-25% and you say, "It would be nuts to try to grab this falling knife." Then it drops over 25% and you start hiding under the covers and thinking about dogfood recipes. BTW, do you know of any good dogfood recipes? I like to plan ahead.
Well said. You need balls of steel to time the market when the time comes.

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:57 pm

knpstr wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:31 pm
S&P 500 down 1.4% YTD... looking to go from all equities to all cash. IPS says: "act on impulse"

Thoughts?
LOL

IPS = Impulsive Panicking Strategy?

MoonOrb
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MoonOrb » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:01 pm

This isn’t going to change my behavior any, but it sure makes looking at financial news less fun.

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bligh
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bligh » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:03 pm

knpstr wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:31 pm
S&P 500 down 1.4% YTD... looking to go from all equities to all cash. IPS says: "act on impulse"

Thoughts?
Lol! :D

CULater
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CULater » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:03 pm

aqan wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:57 pm
CULater wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:53 pm
madbrain wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:16 pm
CULater wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:21 pm
It's official. You dip-buyers stepping up or are you hiding under the covers??

STOCK ROUT IN FULL FORCE, DOW IN FREE FALL DOWN MORE THAN 1,000 POINTS
Not enough of a drop to justify buying yet. We are only talking about 6-7% in a week. Not even at proper correction level. Wake me when it's at least 20%.
Here's the way it goes. Market drops 5%-10% and you think "it hasn't dropped enough yet to buy." So you don't buy. Then it drops 10%-15% and you say "Hey this is getting serious, it could go down some more so I'll wait" and you don't buy again. Then it drops 15%-20% and you say "Geez, this is really turning into a bad bear market" and you start to get pretty nervous, and you still don't buy in the face of all these losses and the bad news all around. Then it goes down 20%-25% and you say, "It would be nuts to try to grab this falling knife." Then it drops over 25% and you start hiding under the covers and thinking about dogfood recipes. BTW, do you know of any good dogfood recipes? I like to plan ahead.
Well said. You need balls of steel to time the market when the time comes.
You ain't kidding. Remember back in 09 when the S&P bottomed out at 666 (mark of the devil). I was in cash and swore I'd go all-in if it hit the mark of the devil. What happened? Well, I was P-ing in my pants at the time and never got around to jumping in. And I stayed out and out and out, fearing the worst. Guess I missed qualifying for a place on the "buy the dip" team that year. :oops:
May you have the hindsight to know where you've been, The foresight to know where you're going, And the insight to know when you've gone too far. ~ Irish Blessing

investordad
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by investordad » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:04 pm

aqan wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:45 pm
RetireBy55 wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:21 pm
MrNewEngland wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:53 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:38 pm


People need to stop wishing for a crash. At least out loud. Even if YOU don't get hurt, many people will.
I've been thinking the exact same thing when I've been reading this thread for the past week.
EXACTLY. Some of us are literally on the verge of retirement. Others are IN retirement. People like us don't have 20+ year horizons and watch what's essentially an entire year's worth of living expenses vaporized in one day's trading.
You know wishes don’t work on stock market (and most other things) otherwise I would be a millionaire long time ago:)
If you’re close to retirement and want to sleep well at night change your AA now. It’s not too late.
I am not wishing for a crash, i just realize that in my early 30's right now that it is going to happen. And with a over 24% increase last year it will eventually happen. I didnt complain last year as my money was making money, knowing that it could also lose money. In Dec I was still putting money in so?I also kept putting what little money I could in during the 2008 crash and came out better, and plan on doing that every time.

I dont want anyone to get hurt and my inlaws were hurt in the 2008 crash so they both kept working. But if you are close to retirement your AA should reflect how much risk you are willing to take. It sucks that you can lose so much but that is the chance we have to take since there are fewer and fewer pensions and SS looking less and less likely to be there.

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220volt
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by 220volt » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:09 pm

Frequency and severity of these flash crashes do make me wonder about the dark side of passive investing in index funds, which is buying good as well as bad companies all at once, kind of mindlessly. Being in for the free ride without doing almost any work. Just riding for free in someone else's car forever. Between ETFs and mutual funds, there was more than 100 billion of extra influx just in January, propping up all those bad companies.
It makes me wonder if the fall is going to be a lot harder than anyone anticipates.
I mean, we all invest this way, but the devil eventually comes back 7 times stronger.
"If I had only followed the advice of financial analysts in 2008, I'd have a million dollars today, provided I started with a hundred million dollars" - Jon Stewart

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fishandgolf
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by fishandgolf » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:09 pm

madbrain wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:36 pm
fishandgolf wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:19 pm
+1000....yep......a few more days like this....might be time to shake the piggy bank...... :sharebeer
Real bogleheads don't keep cash on the side, they rebalance their bonds into stocks.
:beer .....you betcha........what's that ole saying again.........I WAS BORN AT NIGHT......BUT NOT LAST NIGHT..... :sharebeer

MindTheGAAP
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MindTheGAAP » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:10 pm

alfaspider wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:19 pm
madbrain wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:16 pm
CULater wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:21 pm
It's official. You dip-buyers stepping up or are you hiding under the covers??

STOCK ROUT IN FULL FORCE, DOW IN FREE FALL DOWN MORE THAN 1,000 POINTS
Not enough of a drop to justify buying yet. We are only talking about 6-7% in a week. Not even at proper correction level. Wake me when it's at least 20%.
Technically, a correction is a 10% drop within a one year period. 20% is a bear market. We hit a technical correction in intra-day trading today:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/05/the-dow ... -drop.html

I personally don't understand all the talk of "buying the dips." That implies the putative buyer was sitting in a lot of cash beforehand. Why? Instead of timing the market, just keep doing what you should always be doing if in your accumulation phase- slow and steady buying in tandem with income.
I "bought the dip" today but it mostly was just me pulling forward the 401k contribution I'd make for my wife and I through our company. We DCA throughout the year (part of it is for managing cashflow) so I just accelerated the mid-month contribution to today. Didn't see much harm in locking in some discounted prices since it could easily be back up to similar levels as two weeks ago by mid-month - in theory at least (don't think it is realistic).
"One of the funny things about the stock market is that every time one person buys, another sells, and both think they are astute" - William Feather

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:12 pm

Engineer250 wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:41 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:09 pm
MI_bogle wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:05 pm
Ren wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:53 pm
eye.surgeon wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:51 pm
vanguard.com is down....
Yes it is....sigh...great timing.
there's a market timing joke in here somewhere...
Actually, I find all of these comments about buying today to be quite funny. The Boglehead philosophy says "don't time the market," yet many here are shoving far more into the market today than they were when the market was at this level not long ago. 8-)

Being a trend follower, I can't say that I blame them entirely for making this move, but I think that it is largely a subjective, rather than objective, decision for most.
As evidenced by yourself, not everyone that posts here follows Boglehead philosophy religiously. Also, reporting bias; those that chose to do something today are more likely to post than those that didn’t.
Good point. Partly, I just like to poke the bear, probably because I get poked quite a bit by not being a BAH adherent. :D
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by madbrain » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:13 pm

CULater wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:53 pm
Here's the way it goes. Market drops 5%-10% and you think "it hasn't dropped enough yet to buy." So you don't buy. Then it drops 10%-15% and you say "Hey this is getting serious, it could go down some more so I'll wait" and you don't buy again. Then it drops 15%-20% and you say "Geez, this is really turning into a bad bear market" and you start to get pretty nervous, and you still don't buy in the face of all these losses and the bad news all around. Then it goes down 20%-25% and you say, "It would be nuts to try to grab this falling knife." Then it drops over 25% and you start hiding under the covers and thinking about dogfood recipes. BTW, do you know of any good dogfood recipes? I like to plan ahead.
Not the way it went for me in 2008-2009. I held on. I didn't rebalance, though. Won't make that mistake this time if it drops anywhere near that much.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by littlebird » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:14 pm

aqan wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:57 pm
CULater wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:53 pm
madbrain wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:16 pm
CULater wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:21 pm
It's official. You dip-buyers stepping up or are you hiding under the covers??

STOCK ROUT IN FULL FORCE, DOW IN FREE FALL DOWN MORE THAN 1,000 POINTS
Not enough of a drop to justify buying yet. We are only talking about 6-7% in a week. Not even at proper correction level. Wake me when it's at least 20%.
Here's the way it goes. Market drops 5%-10% and you think "it hasn't dropped enough yet to buy." So you don't buy. Then it drops 10%-15% and you say "Hey this is getting serious, it could go down some more so I'll wait" and you don't buy again. Then it drops 15%-20% and you say "Geez, this is really turning into a bad bear market" and you start to get pretty nervous, and you still don't buy in the face of all these losses and the bad news all around. Then it goes down 20%-25% and you say, "It would be nuts to try to grab this falling knife." Then it drops over 25% and you start hiding under the covers and thinking about dogfood recipes. BTW, do you know of any good dogfood recipes? I like to plan ahead.
Well said. You need balls of steel to time the market when the time comes.
Was a buyer in '87, '01, and 08-9, but this time I'm too old and "something" is too weird for me. Can't say more.

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Artful Dodger
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Artful Dodger » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:16 pm

Da5id wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:53 pm
Houe wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:46 pm
Accrual wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:39 pm
A lot of doubt circling this board. Somewhat troubling.
Exactly what I was thinking. I see a lot of posts on the board questioning boglehead principles or suggestion action 180 degrees from the advice I've read on bogleheads.org for the past year (fairly new here). Is talking about BH principles and doing them so much different? What is going on here!?
Why are you surprised? There is not one school of thought here, and all participants are human. Anyone, whether new or not, can suggest things or raise issues.

Me, I say stay the course. But I'm inherently a pessimist/realist. My financial spreadsheet has magnitude of losses I'd suffer from declines of 10-70% in the value my stock holdings just to keep me realistic and aware of what might happen. And to be honest, until we give up more than a years gains how painful is it really? We are currently back around Jan 2 2018 S&P 500 values. Volatility is the price you pay for investing in risky assets like stocks, and mental "anchoring" to the highs does increase the feeling of pain.

If you feel pain seeing the losses, well, look less.
Ah, yes. The days of old when you only got those quarterly reports from your 401K. :P

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:17 pm

madbrain wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:13 pm
CULater wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:53 pm
Here's the way it goes. Market drops 5%-10% and you think "it hasn't dropped enough yet to buy." So you don't buy. Then it drops 10%-15% and you say "Hey this is getting serious, it could go down some more so I'll wait" and you don't buy again. Then it drops 15%-20% and you say "Geez, this is really turning into a bad bear market" and you start to get pretty nervous, and you still don't buy in the face of all these losses and the bad news all around. Then it goes down 20%-25% and you say, "It would be nuts to try to grab this falling knife." Then it drops over 25% and you start hiding under the covers and thinking about dogfood recipes. BTW, do you know of any good dogfood recipes? I like to plan ahead.
Not the way it went for me in 2008-2009. I held on. I didn't rebalance, though. Won't make that mistake this time if it drops anywhere near that much.
Market timer! :wink:
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by invst65 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:18 pm

I quit being religious a few years ago but the first few verses of the Serenity Prayer still make sense to me (don't read any farther unless you ARE religious )... God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change; courage to change the things I can; and wisdom to know the difference.Living one day at a time; enjoying one moment at a time; accepting hardships as the pathway to peace; ...

Not the first time stocks have been in freefall in my lifetime. Won't be the last. Pretty sure of that despite what some people seem to have been thinking of late.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by limeyx » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:22 pm

220volt wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:09 pm
Frequency and severity of these flash crashes do make me wonder about the dark side of passive investing in index funds, which is buying good as well as bad companies all at once, kind of mindlessly. Being in for the free ride without doing almost any work. Just riding for free in someone else's car forever. Between ETFs and mutual funds, there was more than 100 billion of extra influx just in January, propping up all those bad companies.
It makes me wonder if the fall is going to be a lot harder than anyone anticipates.
I mean, we all invest this way, but the devil eventually comes back 7 times stronger.
Yeah. I was frantically looking for "Total US Stock Market - ex Bad Companies" but looks like no one has that yet...gap in the market ? :) haha

njuser
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by njuser » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:23 pm

Vanguard is updated for today. ow.

Keepcalm
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Keepcalm » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:24 pm

Can someone explain to me how VIX is up 115% right now?

So confused.

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bligh
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bligh » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:25 pm

njuser wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:23 pm
Vanguard is updated for today. ow.
Ow is right. :shock:

I suspect we wont be seeing many new "2 comma club" posts for a bit.

RRAAYY3
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RRAAYY3 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:26 pm

Buying the dip last week sure worked out great ... yikes

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by AnalogKid22 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:29 pm

njuser wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:23 pm
Vanguard is updated for today. ow.
T'is but a scratch. And people ask why they should hold bonds.
A fool and his money are very easily parted - Anonymous

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