No, you are not crazy. You actually want this to happen periodically.For someone 25-30 yrs from retirement, with <100k in 401k, with plans of maxing out 2 401ks starting later this year, am I crazy in thinking this is a good thing?
U.S. stocks in free fall
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
“If you don't know, the thing to do is not to get scared, but to learn.”
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
This could pretty easily have tripped some people's rebalancing bands, FWIW.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:09 pmActually, I find all of these comments about buying today to be quite funny. The Boglehead philosophy says "don't time the market," yet many here are shoving far more into the market today than they were when the market was at this level not long ago.
Being a trend follower, I can't say that I blame them entirely for making this move, but I think that it is largely a subjective, rather than objective, decision for most.
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
It's almost enough to make question how efficient markets really are, isn't it? There must have been a lot of information flowing during those few minutes to result in those changes.
The Sensible Steward
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
WOW. I wanna buy and Vanguard won't let me in to their site! Anybody else have same issues?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
As someone in a similar situation, I think it's almost immaterial to me personally as it leaves my plans unchanged. I'd say "stay the course" but for me that calls to mind the SNL sketch "stay the course, a thousand points of light"/"I can't believe I'm losing to this guy" every time.jehovasfitness wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:40 pm For someone 25-30 yrs from retirement, with <100k in 401k, with plans of maxing out 2 401ks starting later this year, am I crazy in thinking this is a good thing?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Interesting indeed. I’m proud to have $0 available to invest right now without stretching my means.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:09 pmActually, I find all of these comments about buying today to be quite funny. The Boglehead philosophy says "don't time the market," yet many here are shoving far more into the market today than they were when the market was at this level not long ago.
Being a trend follower, I can't say that I blame them entirely for making this move, but I think that it is largely a subjective, rather than objective, decision for most.
Re: "Vanguard.com is down"
I need to frame this and put it on my wall.Taylor Larimore wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:09 pm eye.surgeon wrote:Probably a good thing.vanguard.com is down..
Best wishesThe most important single piece of advice I can give you: Stay-the-course. -- John Bogle.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I blame today's drop on the Eagles. The same thing happened in 2008 when the Phillies won the World Series. It is a Philly thing.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
The vast majority of my purchases are automated, except for that which I do with anything 'extra' that comes in that I invest in taxable. This is irregular so I manually invest in this account. I happened to have extra money come in just today, and was able to invest some of it today rather than tomorrow. That could be good or it could be bad. Either way I learned a good lesson today.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:09 pm Actually, I find all of these comments about buying today to be quite funny. The Boglehead philosophy says "don't time the market," yet many here are shoving far more into the market today than they were when the market was at this level not long ago.
Being a trend follower, I can't say that I blame them entirely for making this move, but I think that it is largely a subjective, rather than objective, decision for most.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Jimmy Mac 33 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:12 pm WOW. I wanna buy and Vanguard won't let me in to their site! Anybody else have same issues?
If I understand timing correctly, it's past 4 PM EST now.... so you have until 4 PM EST tomorrow to place your buy order. You would have had to have the order in 16 minutes ago, but as others mentioned and I found as well, Vanguard personal account access was basically dead.
Thank God for Wall Street Bets.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Hey... I just realized: the fifth of the month is when my Roth buy orders (mine and DW's) go through.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
For some, there was a lot of new information flowing. Some people remembered stocks also go down.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:11 pmIt's almost enough to make question how efficient markets really are, isn't it? There must have been a lot of information flowing during those few minutes to result in those changes.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
It was mentioned earlier.
I'll keep an eye on it.DartThrower wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:42 pmWatch out, the Flyers may make a run at the cup this year too!an_asker wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:27 pmYeah, let's blame it on PhiladelphiaDartThrower wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:24 pm The last time the market was this fragile was in the fall of 2008 just after the Philadelphia Phillies won the World Series. Ut oh...
FYI - Note the location under the avatars, including mine.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
This one may not be a bouncer:
On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
No panic. Keep investing. A human life span will experience 10 to 12 bear market. Exclude 1-20 70 and beyond. One would experience 7 to 8 bear market. If you take the 1 and 2 opportunities, You are doing average. If you take advantages of 3 to 4, you should doing well. If you take advantages of 5 to 6, you will become wealthy. If you take advantage of all 8, you will be Warren B. last bear is 2008-2009. Based on business history, bear market occur every 8 to 10 years. You either stay in market through all these 7 to 8 bears or timing it correctly. We are no genius. We can never time the bottom and top. So stay in course will be for most of people. A bear is defined as -20% or more. A correction is -10% or so. So technically, we are experience a correction not bear.
Last edited by WhiteMaxima on Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
We're fine because the Super Bowl indicator shows that when an NFC team (Eagles in this case) wins the Super Bowl the market has an up year 80% of the time.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
My RMDs are already done for 2018 so I think I will do my usual procrastination and not panic (or even worry) until 2019.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
For those who are waiting to move money into ETFs, now is an excellent opportunity to set unusually low limit orders. With cascading down days and flash crashes, if you set a limit order that is 5% or even 10% below market prices, you might get lucky and have that executed before an almost immediate recovery. I've had success with that strategy in the past.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
A bit of serendipity -- DW retired 12/31/17 and initiated the rollover of her 401(k) ASAP. Distribution occurred 1/29/18, check came today. Check will be forwarded to Vanguard and will be deposited into a money market account inside her TIRA for later investment. Sell high, buy low!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
But "efficient" and "wise" are different things.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:11 pmIt's almost enough to make question how efficient markets really are, isn't it? There must have been a lot of information flowing during those few minutes to result in those changes.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein |
Wiki article link: Bogleheads® investment philosophy
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I'm curious as to what new information was flowing, specifically, besides the price?triceratop wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:19 pmFor some, there was a lot of new information flowing. Some people remembered stocks also go down.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:11 pmIt's almost enough to make question how efficient markets really are, isn't it? There must have been a lot of information flowing during those few minutes to result in those changes.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
ruralavalon wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:28 pmBut "efficient" and "wise" are different things.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:11 pmIt's almost enough to make question how efficient markets really are, isn't it? There must have been a lot of information flowing during those few minutes to result in those changes.
Deep down, I suspect that most on this forum do not believe that the market is always rational.
The Sensible Steward
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Wow. That's some luck for the ages right there.jpdion wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:28 pm A bit of serendipity -- DW retired 12/31/17 and initiated the rollover of her 401(k) ASAP. Distribution occurred 1/29/18, check came today. Check will be forwarded to Vanguard and will be deposited into a money market account inside her TIRA for later investment. Sell high, buy low!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Did everyone who could, harvest losses today?
Don't trust me, look it up. https://www.irs.gov/forms-instructions-and-publications
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
. . . .
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
It was a joke.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:28 pmI'm curious as to what new information was flowing, specifically, besides the price?triceratop wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:19 pmFor some, there was a lot of new information flowing. Some people remembered stocks also go down.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:11 pmIt's almost enough to make question how efficient markets really are, isn't it? There must have been a lot of information flowing during those few minutes to result in those changes.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Don't have to dig very deep in me to strike a rich vein of that opinionwillthrill81 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:28 pmruralavalon wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:28 pmBut "efficient" and "wise" are different things.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:11 pmIt's almost enough to make question how efficient markets really are, isn't it? There must have been a lot of information flowing during those few minutes to result in those changes.
Deep down, I suspect that most on this forum do not believe that the market is always rational.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Largest gains ever in a few months to largest single-day drop ever - makes sense.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Unless it turns into a recession and you lose your job.jehovasfitness wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:40 pm For someone 25-30 yrs from retirement, with <100k in 401k, with plans of maxing out 2 401ks starting later this year, am I crazy in thinking this is a good thing?
People need to stop wishing for a crash. At least out loud. Even if YOU don't get hurt, many people will.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Baron Rothschild: "Buy when there is blood in the streets -- including your own."
Try to remember that last part.
Try to remember that last part.
On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Wishing for anything alone won't make it happen.HomerJ wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:38 pmUnless it turns into a recession and you lose your job.jehovasfitness wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:40 pm For someone 25-30 yrs from retirement, with <100k in 401k, with plans of maxing out 2 401ks starting later this year, am I crazy in thinking this is a good thing?
People need to stop wishing for a crash. At least out loud. Even if YOU don't get hurt, many people will.
Obviously, no one knows, but I suspect that this will be merely a flash crash. Beyond valuations being high, the fundamentals still seem too solid for this to continue for long. But who knows?
The Sensible Steward
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
All things pass, both the bad and the good.
“Those who move forward with a happy spirit will find that things always work out.” -Retired 13 years 😀
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I may be opening up my Roth IRA this Thursday, so hopefully price will be cheap for my first $1000 ever invested in the market.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Since I'm rebalancing with new money, I've been buying bonds since 2013. I have not purchased any stock funds in my taxable account in 5 years. I'm also nowhere near any kind of rebalancing band. So no excitement for me.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
You don't have to "take advantage" of ANY bear markets to become quite wealthy. The long-term historical average return from the stock market INCLUDES all the crashes.WhiteMaxima wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:23 pm No panic. Keep investing. A human life span will experience 10 to 12 bear market. Exclude 1-20 70 and beyond. One would experience 7 to 8 bear market. If you take the 1 and 2 opportunities, You are doing average. If you take advantages of 3 to 4, you should doing well. If you take advantages of 5 to 6, you will become wealthy. If you take advantage of all 8, you will be Warren B. last bear is 2008-2009. Based on business history, bear market occur every 8 to 10 years. You either stay in market through all these 7 to 8 bears or timing it correctly. We are no genius. We can never time the bottom and top. So stay in course will be for most of people. A bear is defined as -20% or more. A correction is -10% or so. So technically, we are experience a correction not bear.
Just stay-the-course.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I agree. The year started off skyrocketing, breaking record after record - a correction on the other side was inevitable. The economy is far too strong. If we see a steady decline, the country has much bigger issues.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:40 pmWishing for anything alone won't make it happen.HomerJ wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:38 pmUnless it turns into a recession and you lose your job.jehovasfitness wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:40 pm For someone 25-30 yrs from retirement, with <100k in 401k, with plans of maxing out 2 401ks starting later this year, am I crazy in thinking this is a good thing?
People need to stop wishing for a crash. At least out loud. Even if YOU don't get hurt, many people will.
Obviously, no one knows, but I suspect that this will be merely a flash crash. Beyond valuations being high, the fundamentals still seem too solid for this to continue for long. But who knows?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
boring.
I'm currently saving up my 2017 ISA allowance (UK roth) of 20k as I lump sum it to avoid trading costs, so I don't have the money together to buy my allowance. Maybe Ill get lucky and it'll carry on dropping until I get my stash together, I've got until April 5th
I'm currently saving up my 2017 ISA allowance (UK roth) of 20k as I lump sum it to avoid trading costs, so I don't have the money together to buy my allowance. Maybe Ill get lucky and it'll carry on dropping until I get my stash together, I've got until April 5th
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Don't worry. As soon as we see a REAL crash, like in 2008, just about all of the people who have been calling for one will change their tune.MrNewEngland wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:53 pmI've been thinking the exact same thing when I've been reading this thread for the past week.
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Put in $40K today ($20 from selling off my final individual stocks and $20K from some bonds I'd been considering selling)
=> This now means we will have another 1000point drop tomorrow due to my horrific "market timing" luck
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Well, it isn't a Friday so....I guess it could beselters wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:25 pm Today will be the worst day ever for the Dow Jones index: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_l ... al_Average
But is it a really bad day?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
To clarify I wouldn't want a crash. But a dropMrNewEngland wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:53 pmI've been thinking the exact same thing when I've been reading this thread for the past week.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
....just be happy it's not October 2008 (and it's not).......the action would just be gett'n started......
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
an interesting puzzle is the 60% drop after hours in XIV.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Not enough of a drop to justify buying yet. We are only talking about 6-7% in a week. Not even at proper correction level. Wake me when it's at least 20%.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I've had a funny reaction to this one. Three years out from retirement I've been feeling a sense of anxiety the past few months, especially in January. I thought it was just the general uncertainty of where I'm at, but when the market tumbled last week the anxiety lifted, and more so today.
One clue was that seeing portfolio milestones zip past in quick succession had become almost disorienting.
Maybe I'm in a fool's paradise and this is the beginning of the end but - cue my signature line.
One clue was that seeing portfolio milestones zip past in quick succession had become almost disorienting.
Maybe I'm in a fool's paradise and this is the beginning of the end but - cue my signature line.
"I know nothing."
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
We have computer's and their algorithms making flash trades still, correct?
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