U.S. stocks in free fall

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AtlasShrugged?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by AtlasShrugged? »

For someone 25-30 yrs from retirement, with <100k in 401k, with plans of maxing out 2 401ks starting later this year, am I crazy in thinking this is a good thing?
No, you are not crazy. You actually want this to happen periodically.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Noobvestor »

willthrill81 wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:09 pm
MI_bogle wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:05 pm
Ren wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:53 pm
eye.surgeon wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:51 pm vanguard.com is down....
Yes it is....sigh...great timing.
there's a market timing joke in here somewhere...
Actually, I find all of these comments about buying today to be quite funny. The Boglehead philosophy says "don't time the market," yet many here are shoving far more into the market today than they were when the market was at this level not long ago. 8-)

Being a trend follower, I can't say that I blame them entirely for making this move, but I think that it is largely a subjective, rather than objective, decision for most.
This could pretty easily have tripped some people's rebalancing bands, FWIW.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 »

jrbdmb wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:05 pm
mister_sparkle wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:09 pm 1100. :shock:

edit: Make that 1550
Wondering what happened to cause the DOW to drop from 24776 at 3:02 PM to 23999 at 3:11 PM, and then recovered almost of it back by 3:17 PM. Even for a wacky market that seems kinda wacky ... :shock:
It's almost enough to make question how efficient markets really are, isn't it? There must have been a lot of information flowing during those few minutes to result in those changes. :wink:
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Jimmy Mac 33 »

WOW. I wanna buy and Vanguard won't let me in to their site! Anybody else have same issues?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by getthatmarshmallow »

jehovasfitness wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:40 pm For someone 25-30 yrs from retirement, with <100k in 401k, with plans of maxing out 2 401ks starting later this year, am I crazy in thinking this is a good thing?
As someone in a similar situation, I think it's almost immaterial to me personally as it leaves my plans unchanged. I'd say "stay the course" but for me that calls to mind the SNL sketch "stay the course, a thousand points of light"/"I can't believe I'm losing to this guy" every time.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by WiscoTrout »

jrbdmb wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:05 pm
mister_sparkle wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:09 pm 1100. :shock:

edit: Make that 1550
Wondering what happened to cause the DOW to drop from 24776 at 3:02 PM to 23999 at 3:11 PM, and then recovered almost of it back by 3:17 PM. Even for a wacky market that seems kinda wacky ... :shock:
Looks like a "flash crash"...
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MotoTrojan »

willthrill81 wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:09 pm
MI_bogle wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:05 pm
Ren wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:53 pm
eye.surgeon wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:51 pm vanguard.com is down....
Yes it is....sigh...great timing.
there's a market timing joke in here somewhere...
Actually, I find all of these comments about buying today to be quite funny. The Boglehead philosophy says "don't time the market," yet many here are shoving far more into the market today than they were when the market was at this level not long ago. 8-)

Being a trend follower, I can't say that I blame them entirely for making this move, but I think that it is largely a subjective, rather than objective, decision for most.
Interesting indeed. I’m proud to have $0 available to invest right now without stretching my means.
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Re: "Vanguard.com is down"

Post by oldzey »

Taylor Larimore wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:09 pm eye.surgeon wrote:
vanguard.com is down..
Probably a good thing. :wink:
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Hockey10 »

I blame today's drop on the Eagles. The same thing happened in 2008 when the Phillies won the World Series. It is a Philly thing. :sharebeer
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by onourway »

willthrill81 wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:09 pm Actually, I find all of these comments about buying today to be quite funny. The Boglehead philosophy says "don't time the market," yet many here are shoving far more into the market today than they were when the market was at this level not long ago. 8-)

Being a trend follower, I can't say that I blame them entirely for making this move, but I think that it is largely a subjective, rather than objective, decision for most.
The vast majority of my purchases are automated, except for that which I do with anything 'extra' that comes in that I invest in taxable. This is irregular so I manually invest in this account. I happened to have extra money come in just today, and was able to invest some of it today rather than tomorrow. That could be good or it could be bad. Either way I learned a good lesson today.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Helo80 »

Jimmy Mac 33 wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:12 pm WOW. I wanna buy and Vanguard won't let me in to their site! Anybody else have same issues?

If I understand timing correctly, it's past 4 PM EST now.... so you have until 4 PM EST tomorrow to place your buy order. You would have had to have the order in 16 minutes ago, but as others mentioned and I found as well, Vanguard personal account access was basically dead.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oldcomputerguy »

Hey... I just realized: the fifth of the month is when my Roth buy orders (mine and DW's) go through. :D
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop »

willthrill81 wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:11 pm
jrbdmb wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:05 pm
mister_sparkle wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:09 pm 1100. :shock:

edit: Make that 1550
Wondering what happened to cause the DOW to drop from 24776 at 3:02 PM to 23999 at 3:11 PM, and then recovered almost of it back by 3:17 PM. Even for a wacky market that seems kinda wacky ... :shock:
It's almost enough to make question how efficient markets really are, isn't it? There must have been a lot of information flowing during those few minutes to result in those changes. :wink:
For some, there was a lot of new information flowing. Some people remembered stocks also go down. ;)
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by LadyGeek »

Hockey10 wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:14 pm I blame today's drop on the Eagles. The same thing happened in 2008 when the Phillies won the World Series. It is a Philly thing. :sharebeer
It was mentioned earlier.
DartThrower wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:42 pm
an_asker wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:27 pm
DartThrower wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:24 pm The last time the market was this fragile was in the fall of 2008 just after the Philadelphia Phillies won the World Series. Ut oh... :oops:
Yeah, let's blame it on Philadelphia ;-)
Watch out, the Flyers may make a run at the cup this year too! :twisted:
I'll keep an eye on it.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CULater »

This one may not be a bouncer:


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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by WhiteMaxima »

No panic. Keep investing. A human life span will experience 10 to 12 bear market. Exclude 1-20 70 and beyond. One would experience 7 to 8 bear market. If you take the 1 and 2 opportunities, You are doing average. If you take advantages of 3 to 4, you should doing well. If you take advantages of 5 to 6, you will become wealthy. If you take advantage of all 8, you will be Warren B. last bear is 2008-2009. Based on business history, bear market occur every 8 to 10 years. You either stay in market through all these 7 to 8 bears or timing it correctly. We are no genius. We can never time the bottom and top. So stay in course will be for most of people. A bear is defined as -20% or more. A correction is -10% or so. So technically, we are experience a correction not bear.
Last edited by WhiteMaxima on Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Jim180 »

We're fine because the Super Bowl indicator shows that when an NFC team (Eagles in this case) wins the Super Bowl the market has an up year 80% of the time. :happy
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by H-Town »

Meanwhile...

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Doom&Gloom »

My RMDs are already done for 2018 so I think I will do my usual procrastination and not panic (or even worry) until 2019.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by chicagoan23 »

For those who are waiting to move money into ETFs, now is an excellent opportunity to set unusually low limit orders. With cascading down days and flash crashes, if you set a limit order that is 5% or even 10% below market prices, you might get lucky and have that executed before an almost immediate recovery. I've had success with that strategy in the past.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jpdion »

A bit of serendipity -- DW retired 12/31/17 and initiated the rollover of her 401(k) ASAP. Distribution occurred 1/29/18, check came today. Check will be forwarded to Vanguard and will be deposited into a money market account inside her TIRA for later investment. Sell high, buy low! :happy
Last edited by jpdion on Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ruralavalon »

willthrill81 wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:11 pm
jrbdmb wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:05 pm
mister_sparkle wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:09 pm 1100. :shock:

edit: Make that 1550
Wondering what happened to cause the DOW to drop from 24776 at 3:02 PM to 23999 at 3:11 PM, and then recovered almost of it back by 3:17 PM. Even for a wacky market that seems kinda wacky ... :shock:
It's almost enough to make question how efficient markets really are, isn't it? There must have been a lot of information flowing during those few minutes to result in those changes. :wink:
But "efficient" and "wise" are different things.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link: Bogleheads® investment philosophy
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 »

triceratop wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:19 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:11 pm
jrbdmb wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:05 pm
mister_sparkle wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:09 pm 1100. :shock:

edit: Make that 1550
Wondering what happened to cause the DOW to drop from 24776 at 3:02 PM to 23999 at 3:11 PM, and then recovered almost of it back by 3:17 PM. Even for a wacky market that seems kinda wacky ... :shock:
It's almost enough to make question how efficient markets really are, isn't it? There must have been a lot of information flowing during those few minutes to result in those changes. :wink:
For some, there was a lot of new information flowing. Some people remembered stocks also go down. ;)
I'm curious as to what new information was flowing, specifically, besides the price?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 »

ruralavalon wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:28 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:11 pm
jrbdmb wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:05 pm
mister_sparkle wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:09 pm 1100. :shock:

edit: Make that 1550
Wondering what happened to cause the DOW to drop from 24776 at 3:02 PM to 23999 at 3:11 PM, and then recovered almost of it back by 3:17 PM. Even for a wacky market that seems kinda wacky ... :shock:
It's almost enough to make question how efficient markets really are, isn't it? There must have been a lot of information flowing during those few minutes to result in those changes. :wink:
But "efficient" and "wise" are different things.
:sharebeer

Deep down, I suspect that most on this forum do not believe that the market is always rational.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by eye.surgeon »

jpdion wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:28 pm A bit of serendipity -- DW retired 12/31/17 and initiated the rollover of her 401(k) ASAP. Distribution occurred 1/29/18, check came today. Check will be forwarded to Vanguard and will be deposited into a money market account inside her TIRA for later investment. Sell high, buy low! :happy
Wow. That's some luck for the ages right there.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jebmke »

Did everyone who could, harvest losses today?
Don't trust me, look it up. https://www.irs.gov/forms-instructions-and-publications
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jainn »

. . . .
Last edited by jainn on Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop »

willthrill81 wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:28 pm
triceratop wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:19 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:11 pm
jrbdmb wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:05 pm
mister_sparkle wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:09 pm 1100. :shock:

edit: Make that 1550
Wondering what happened to cause the DOW to drop from 24776 at 3:02 PM to 23999 at 3:11 PM, and then recovered almost of it back by 3:17 PM. Even for a wacky market that seems kinda wacky ... :shock:
It's almost enough to make question how efficient markets really are, isn't it? There must have been a lot of information flowing during those few minutes to result in those changes. :wink:
For some, there was a lot of new information flowing. Some people remembered stocks also go down. ;)
I'm curious as to what new information was flowing, specifically, besides the price?
It was a joke.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MI_bogle »

willthrill81 wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:28 pm
ruralavalon wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:28 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:11 pm
jrbdmb wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:05 pm
mister_sparkle wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:09 pm 1100. :shock:

edit: Make that 1550
Wondering what happened to cause the DOW to drop from 24776 at 3:02 PM to 23999 at 3:11 PM, and then recovered almost of it back by 3:17 PM. Even for a wacky market that seems kinda wacky ... :shock:
It's almost enough to make question how efficient markets really are, isn't it? There must have been a lot of information flowing during those few minutes to result in those changes. :wink:
But "efficient" and "wise" are different things.
:sharebeer

Deep down, I suspect that most on this forum do not believe that the market is always rational.
Don't have to dig very deep in me to strike a rich vein of that opinion
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by AnalogKid22 »

Largest gains ever in a few months to largest single-day drop ever - makes sense.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by HomerJ »

jehovasfitness wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:40 pm For someone 25-30 yrs from retirement, with <100k in 401k, with plans of maxing out 2 401ks starting later this year, am I crazy in thinking this is a good thing?
Unless it turns into a recession and you lose your job.

People need to stop wishing for a crash. At least out loud. Even if YOU don't get hurt, many people will.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CULater »

Baron Rothschild: "Buy when there is blood in the streets -- including your own."

Try to remember that last part.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 »

HomerJ wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:38 pm
jehovasfitness wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:40 pm For someone 25-30 yrs from retirement, with <100k in 401k, with plans of maxing out 2 401ks starting later this year, am I crazy in thinking this is a good thing?
Unless it turns into a recession and you lose your job.

People need to stop wishing for a crash. At least out loud. Even if YOU don't get hurt, many people will.
Wishing for anything alone won't make it happen.

Obviously, no one knows, but I suspect that this will be merely a flash crash. Beyond valuations being high, the fundamentals still seem too solid for this to continue for long. But who knows?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by tennisplyr »

All things pass, both the bad and the good.
“Those who move forward with a happy spirit will find that things always work out.” -Retired 13 years 😀
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oliverwendellholmes »

I may be opening up my Roth IRA this Thursday, so hopefully price will be cheap for my first $1000 ever invested in the market.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Chuck »

jebmke wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:34 pm Did everyone who could, harvest losses today?
Since I'm rebalancing with new money, I've been buying bonds since 2013. I have not purchased any stock funds in my taxable account in 5 years. I'm also nowhere near any kind of rebalancing band. So no excitement for me.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by HomerJ »

WhiteMaxima wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:23 pm No panic. Keep investing. A human life span will experience 10 to 12 bear market. Exclude 1-20 70 and beyond. One would experience 7 to 8 bear market. If you take the 1 and 2 opportunities, You are doing average. If you take advantages of 3 to 4, you should doing well. If you take advantages of 5 to 6, you will become wealthy. If you take advantage of all 8, you will be Warren B. last bear is 2008-2009. Based on business history, bear market occur every 8 to 10 years. You either stay in market through all these 7 to 8 bears or timing it correctly. We are no genius. We can never time the bottom and top. So stay in course will be for most of people. A bear is defined as -20% or more. A correction is -10% or so. So technically, we are experience a correction not bear.
You don't have to "take advantage" of ANY bear markets to become quite wealthy. The long-term historical average return from the stock market INCLUDES all the crashes.

Just stay-the-course.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Leif »

TSquare wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:34 pm Dead cat bounce! Hang on folks!
Looks like the cat bounced about 3:15 ET today. But who knows, it may have 8 additional lives.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by AnalogKid22 »

willthrill81 wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:40 pm
HomerJ wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:38 pm
jehovasfitness wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:40 pm For someone 25-30 yrs from retirement, with <100k in 401k, with plans of maxing out 2 401ks starting later this year, am I crazy in thinking this is a good thing?
Unless it turns into a recession and you lose your job.

People need to stop wishing for a crash. At least out loud. Even if YOU don't get hurt, many people will.
Wishing for anything alone won't make it happen.

Obviously, no one knows, but I suspect that this will be merely a flash crash. Beyond valuations being high, the fundamentals still seem too solid for this to continue for long. But who knows?
I agree. The year started off skyrocketing, breaking record after record - a correction on the other side was inevitable. The economy is far too strong. If we see a steady decline, the country has much bigger issues.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by minimalistmarc »

boring.

I'm currently saving up my 2017 ISA allowance (UK roth) of 20k as I lump sum it to avoid trading costs, so I don't have the money together to buy my allowance. Maybe Ill get lucky and it'll carry on dropping until I get my stash together, I've got until April 5th
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MrNewEngland »

HomerJ wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:38 pm

People need to stop wishing for a crash. At least out loud. Even if YOU don't get hurt, many people will.
I've been thinking the exact same thing when I've been reading this thread for the past week.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by technovelist »

MrNewEngland wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:53 pm
HomerJ wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:38 pm

People need to stop wishing for a crash. At least out loud. Even if YOU don't get hurt, many people will.
I've been thinking the exact same thing when I've been reading this thread for the past week.
Don't worry. As soon as we see a REAL crash, like in 2008, just about all of the people who have been calling for one will change their tune.
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by limeyx »

CULater wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:21 pm It's official. You dip-buyers stepping up or are you hiding under the covers??

STOCK ROUT IN FULL FORCE, DOW IN FREE FALL DOWN MORE THAN 1,000 POINTS
Put in $40K today ($20 from selling off my final individual stocks and $20K from some bonds I'd been considering selling)
=> This now means we will have another 1000point drop tomorrow due to my horrific "market timing" luck
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by limeyx »

selters wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:25 pm Today will be the worst day ever for the Dow Jones index: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_l ... al_Average

But is it a really bad day?
Well, it isn't a Friday so....I guess it could be
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jehovasfitness »

MrNewEngland wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:53 pm
HomerJ wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:38 pm

People need to stop wishing for a crash. At least out loud. Even if YOU don't get hurt, many people will.
I've been thinking the exact same thing when I've been reading this thread for the past week.
To clarify I wouldn't want a crash. But a drop
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by fishandgolf »

:D :D :D ....just be happy it's not October 2008 (and it's not).......the action would just be gett'n started...... :D :D :D :D
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by desafinado »

an interesting puzzle is the 60% drop after hours in XIV.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by madbrain »

CULater wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:21 pm It's official. You dip-buyers stepping up or are you hiding under the covers??

STOCK ROUT IN FULL FORCE, DOW IN FREE FALL DOWN MORE THAN 1,000 POINTS
Not enough of a drop to justify buying yet. We are only talking about 6-7% in a week. Not even at proper correction level. Wake me when it's at least 20%.
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Johnnie
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Johnnie »

I've had a funny reaction to this one. Three years out from retirement I've been feeling a sense of anxiety the past few months, especially in January. I thought it was just the general uncertainty of where I'm at, but when the market tumbled last week the anxiety lifted, and more so today.

One clue was that seeing portfolio milestones zip past in quick succession had become almost disorienting.

Maybe I'm in a fool's paradise and this is the beginning of the end but - cue my signature line.
"I know nothing."
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lostdog »

We have computer's and their algorithms making flash trades still, correct?
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