U.S. stocks in free fall

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SocalLiving
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by SocalLiving »

greg24 wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:55 pm
Accrual wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:39 pm A lot of doubt circling this board. Somewhat troubling.
This thread is where doubts are talked about.

The rest of the board basically ignores the daily market movements.
I do find this thread to be very useful because the confusion and fear that people go through with market downturns can be very educational. I am reminded why I need a plan, and why it's important for me not to deviate from it. An opportunity for some self reflection.

I have been a Boglehead for less than a year. Last year I wrote our IPS, simplified to a 3-fund and chose our AA after lots of thought. Before that, I felt so stressed out by market blips (ups and downs). I felt pulled in all directions by all the predictions and analysis. Now my plan tells me exactly what I should be doing (which most of the time is nothing), and where the money should be going. There is nothing else to act on, but lots of opportunities to continue learning.
Greg in Idaho
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Greg in Idaho »

OK, since no one else seems to have jumped on this one:

Weeeeeeeeeee!!!
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lostdog »

Does anyone here seem to realize we are only losing January gains so far? LOL

I just got back for the gym. While running on the treadmill I saw it dropped 1,500 points. I's funny watching CNBC all doom and gloom so I uppped the speed and enjoyed the show.
Last edited by lostdog on Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by selters »

an_asker wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:28 pm
selters wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:25 pm Today will be the worst day ever for the Dow Jones index: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_l ... al_Average

But is it a really bad day?
Nope. Not the worst day ever for the Dow Jones index. By any stretch of imagination.
Not in percentage terms. But in points it is (at least was a few minutes ago). Of course, these stats are just meaningless. But the financial media will have something to write about.
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munemaker
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by munemaker »

CULater wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:21 pm It's official. You dip-buyers stepping up or are you hiding under the covers??

STOCK ROUT IN FULL FORCE, DOW IN FREE FALL DOWN MORE THAN 1,000 POINTS
You backing up the truck?
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TSquare
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TSquare »

Dead cat bounce! Hang on folks!
Last edited by TSquare on Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by AnalogKid22 »

Rather it happens earlier in the year. Hopefully, it provides more time for a rebound.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bi0hazard »

WhiteMaxima wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:00 pm Watch 10 year treasure yield. If it's above 3%, I would be cautious. If it's above 3.5%, I would sell equity and get into 3.5% bond. Safety is always no 1. Vanguard predict next 10 years average return at 4.5%. 3.5% secure return or 4.5% projected return . Equity investor demand more than 1.0% premium for taking the risk. But I do believe a bear market is good for investor because it create a very good opportunity to buy equity cheap. I hold my cash tight.
:oops:
Disclaimer: I'm not very smart, and this is just my hypothesis.
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CULater
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CULater »

And, now this:

DOW, DOWN 1500 AT LOWS, COULD POST WORST DAILY POINT DROP IN HISTORY

https://www.marketwatch.com

Hey, these clickbait headlines are getting bad enough, I might want to be a dip-buyer!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Da5id »

lostdog wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:34 pm Does anyone here seem to realize we are only losing January gains so far? LOL
Yeah, I think it has been mentioned. The issue with stocks is that you don't know if this is the beginning of a huge slide, say 20-40%, or a blip. And can't know in advance. That volatility and uncertainty is some of the reason for the equity premium, but of course it is unsettling. Hence the value of an appropriate asset allocation and a plan of some sort.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CULater »

My risk tolerance is still OK -- it's just the losing money part that is starting to get to me. :confused
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jehovasfitness »

For someone 25-30 yrs from retirement, with <100k in 401k, with plans of maxing out 2 401ks starting later this year, am I crazy in thinking this is a good thing?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by DartThrower »

an_asker wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:27 pm
DartThrower wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:24 pm The last time the market was this fragile was in the fall of 2008 just after the Philadelphia Phillies won the World Series. Ut oh... :oops:
Yeah, let's blame it on Philadelphia ;-)
Watch out, the Flyers may make a run at the cup this year too! :twisted:
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RetireBy55 »

jehovasfitness wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:40 pm For someone 25-30 yrs from retirement, with <100k in 401k, with plans of maxing out 2 401ks starting later this year, am I crazy in thinking this is a good thing?
Try being less than 25 MONTHS from retirement..
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by robertmcd »

Treasuries rallying. I think this downturn could go on for weeks and even years at a slow death pace as rates get back to normal and stocks get crushed, if price discovery and valuations continue to matter as they are right now. However, last week the Japanese central bank put an unlimited order for 10 yr JGB's at a premium when they saw rates rising to say "ah ah ah not so fast" to anyone thinks central banks have to taper their balance sheets. So I am stuck between these two dilemnas. At my age of 24, I have a large amount invested to where a 50% loss would be a punch to the face and devastating in terms of $ value to me, although it makes me happy to know that the 65 yr old who was along for one of the best bull markets in history and got greedy by not tapering down their equity percentage will pay for his greed, while I can buy for the next 10 years in the worst bear market in history (as long as I stayed employed that is).
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by tainted-meat »

jehovasfitness wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:40 pm For someone 25-30 yrs from retirement, with <100k in 401k, with plans of maxing out 2 401ks starting later this year, am I crazy in thinking this is a good thing?
Not sure if I would say it is a good or bad thing, but just that it is. It's important to continue buying on the ups and on the downs.
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CULater
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CULater »

It seems like just yesterday, Ray Dalio issued these prescient words:
“if you’re holding cash, you’re going to feel pretty stupid"
Whoops. Guess I should have gone the cash as soon as he said this...
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 »

Da5id wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:37 pm
lostdog wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:34 pm Does anyone here seem to realize we are only losing January gains so far? LOL
Yeah, I think it has been mentioned. The issue with stocks is that you don't know if this is the beginning of a huge slide, say 20-40%, or a blip. And can't know in advance. That volatility and uncertainty is some of the reason for the equity premium, but of course it is unsettling. Hence the value of an appropriate asset allocation and a plan of some sort.
The S&P 500 still has to drop quite a lot more before it falls below the 200 day moving average. It's right at the 60 day moving average currently. I suspect that some are forgetting just how good the market has been going into the last two trading days.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by H-Town »

TomatoTomahto wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 6:48 pm
RRAAYY3 wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:00 pm How are you guys breaking the news to loved ones?
"Honey, according to Livesoft's rule, we can buy another Tesla!"
Well... do you have 3 Tesla in your garage now? :mrgreen:
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by FullYellowJacket »

I made an unscheduled purchase for our Roth IRAs today. I thought about it on Friday, but I am glad I held off one more day!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 »

jehovasfitness wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:40 pm For someone 25-30 yrs from retirement, with <100k in 401k, with plans of maxing out 2 401ks starting later this year, am I crazy in thinking this is a good thing?
A deep bear market has usually been great for early accumulators, but we're a long ways off in terms of price movement from a bear market.
Last edited by willthrill81 on Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by H-Town »

willthrill81 wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:45 pm
Da5id wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:37 pm
lostdog wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:34 pm Does anyone here seem to realize we are only losing January gains so far? LOL
Yeah, I think it has been mentioned. The issue with stocks is that you don't know if this is the beginning of a huge slide, say 20-40%, or a blip. And can't know in advance. That volatility and uncertainty is some of the reason for the equity premium, but of course it is unsettling. Hence the value of an appropriate asset allocation and a plan of some sort.
The S&P 500 still has to drop quite a lot more before it falls below the 200 day moving average. It's right at the 60 day moving average currently. I suspect that some are forgetting just how good the market has been going into the last two trading days.
Are you at selling point yet? Going 100/0 to 0/100?
Time is the ultimate currency.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by grog »

The bloodbath continues
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by rudeboy »

jehovasfitness wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:40 pm For someone 25-30 yrs from retirement, with <100k in 401k, with plans of maxing out 2 401ks starting later this year, am I crazy in thinking this is a good thing?
You're not crazy for thinking it's a good thing for you, but you'd be gauche to talk about it too loudly.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MindTheGAAP »

rudeboy wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:47 pm
jehovasfitness wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:40 pm For someone 25-30 yrs from retirement, with <100k in 401k, with plans of maxing out 2 401ks starting later this year, am I crazy in thinking this is a good thing?
You're not crazy for thinking it's a good thing for you, but you'd be gauche to talk about it too loudly.
Agree with this. I put my mid-month contribution in today as a result of the activity and then if it continues to slide then I'll continue to accelerate.
"One of the funny things about the stock market is that every time one person buys, another sells, and both think they are astute" - William Feather
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 »

thangngo wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:46 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:45 pm
Da5id wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:37 pm
lostdog wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:34 pm Does anyone here seem to realize we are only losing January gains so far? LOL
Yeah, I think it has been mentioned. The issue with stocks is that you don't know if this is the beginning of a huge slide, say 20-40%, or a blip. And can't know in advance. That volatility and uncertainty is some of the reason for the equity premium, but of course it is unsettling. Hence the value of an appropriate asset allocation and a plan of some sort.
The S&P 500 still has to drop quite a lot more before it falls below the 200 day moving average. It's right at the 60 day moving average currently. I suspect that some are forgetting just how good the market has been going into the last two trading days.
Are you at selling point yet? Going 100/0 to 0/100?
No, I won't be selling until the last closing price of the month is below the 7 month moving average (meaning that I don't trade more than once per month). We're still about 4% above that point right now.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lostdog »

thangngo wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:46 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:45 pm
Da5id wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:37 pm
lostdog wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:34 pm Does anyone here seem to realize we are only losing January gains so far? LOL
Yeah, I think it has been mentioned. The issue with stocks is that you don't know if this is the beginning of a huge slide, say 20-40%, or a blip. And can't know in advance. That volatility and uncertainty is some of the reason for the equity premium, but of course it is unsettling. Hence the value of an appropriate asset allocation and a plan of some sort.
The S&P 500 still has to drop quite a lot more before it falls below the 200 day moving average. It's right at the 60 day moving average currently. I suspect that some are forgetting just how good the market has been going into the last two trading days.
Are you at selling point yet? Going 100/0 to 0/100?
I have a few decades to full retirement. I am happy either way. Liking the ups and downs. It's about share accumulation for me at the moment.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by fishandgolf »

...... :shock: :shock: :shock: ....panic button......what panic button... :shock:
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 »

rudeboy wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:47 pm
jehovasfitness wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:40 pm For someone 25-30 yrs from retirement, with <100k in 401k, with plans of maxing out 2 401ks starting later this year, am I crazy in thinking this is a good thing?
You're not crazy for thinking it's a good thing for you, but you'd be gauche to talk about it too loudly.
Not really. Historically, what's good for early accumulators is bad for early retirees and vice versa. Somebody should always be happy. :D
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by eye.surgeon »

vanguard.com is down.... I'd like to think it's too many dip buyers, but the markets suggest otherwise.
Last edited by eye.surgeon on Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jmetsrule »

None of what is happening can be that bad because there is virtually no genuine fear in these newer posts.

Sheepdog's thread is useful because it shows the very real emotions that are attached to our savings/retirement accounts. People lose money; they lose opportunities; they lose jobs; and, in some--albeit rare cases, they lose their lives.

For the past few months I feel like this thread has become a bit of a mockery of itself--an exuberant tugging on Superman's cape. Note that the usefulness of this thread may well be in how the posts go from pan-like frivolity and jubilation at the current sale price of stocks to a genuine wondering of when we'll see a bottom and then some real growth in the market again.

Although I still have plenty of years to accumulate and thus would benefit greatly from a prolonged down period in the market, I don't want a bear market because I know that there are people who have not reduced their risk enough to actually be able to take the hit in their retirement. Yes, they should have done so already. And I hope they take this bit of a fall today to really reassess the money that they actually need to retire.

No man is an island; the bell tolls for thee--and all that jazz.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lostdog »

eye.surgeon wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:51 pm vanguard.com is down....
Its' up but very very sluggish.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Ren »

eye.surgeon wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:51 pm vanguard.com is down....
Yes it is....sigh...great timing.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by johnny141 »

awval999 wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:29 pm I mean it's just LOL hilarious. We are back at January 1st 2018 levels of valuation.

Stocks go up. Stocks go down. We have more to fall I'm sure. But 10 years, 20 years from now, this is just a blip.
Yea I'm being told on another forum that this is why individual stocks are a better choice then index funds. LOL
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Helo80 »

eye.surgeon wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:51 pm vanguard.com is down....I'm guessing a lot of sellers. I'd like to think it's too many buyers, but the markets suggest otherwise.

Wow.... I submitted a buy order for TSM.... glad I did not wait to the last minute on this.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by onourway »

This is a reason I'd not considered before for having multiple brokerages. Could not place an order at Vanguard. Went to my account at Schwab and did it there instead.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by grog »

Users browsing this forum: huge list and 569 guests
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Noobvestor »

Helo80 wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:56 pm
eye.surgeon wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:51 pm vanguard.com is down....I'm guessing a lot of sellers. I'd like to think it's too many buyers, but the markets suggest otherwise.

Wow.... I submitted a buy order for TSM.... glad I did not wait to the last minute on this.
And that's it folks, ding ding ding! No more for today!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sreynard »

rudeboy wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:47 pm
jehovasfitness wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:40 pm For someone 25-30 yrs from retirement, with <100k in 401k, with plans of maxing out 2 401ks starting later this year, am I crazy in thinking this is a good thing?
You're not crazy for thinking it's a good thing for you, but you'd be gauche to talk about it too loudly.
Right, so type quietly.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by DanMahowny »

Kinda bummed we didn't hit -2000 on the Dow.

Gotta wait for tomorrow's action, I guess.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Helo80 »

onourway wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:00 pm This is a reason I'd not considered before for having multiple brokerages. Could not place an order at Vanguard. Went to my account at Schwab and did it there instead.

Excellent point about not keeping all your eggs in one basket. Probably a good learning point and takeaway for us all today.
Thank God for Wall Street Bets.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by AnalogKid22 »

Who said index investing is boring?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jrbdmb »

mister_sparkle wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:09 pm 1100. :shock:

edit: Make that 1550
Wondering what happened to cause the DOW to drop from 24776 at 3:02 PM to 23999 at 3:11 PM, and then recovered almost of it back by 3:17 PM. Even for a wacky market that seems kinda wacky ... :shock:
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MI_bogle »

Ren wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:53 pm
eye.surgeon wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:51 pm vanguard.com is down....
Yes it is....sigh...great timing.
there's a market timing joke in here somewhere...
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by alfaspider »

AnalogKid22 wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:04 pm Who said index investing is boring?
When it is combined with BH DCA and hold, it sort of still is. I suppose I have a huge paper loss from today, but it's all sort of meaningless when there's nothing to be done about it.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by eye.surgeon »

jrbdmb wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:05 pm
mister_sparkle wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:09 pm 1100. :shock:

edit: Make that 1550
Wondering what happened to cause the DOW to drop from 24776 at 3:02 PM to 23999 at 3:11 PM, and then recovered almost of it back by 3:17 PM. Even for a wacky market that seems kinda wacky ... :shock:
Maybe a bunch of automated sell orders were triggered?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 »

MI_bogle wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:05 pm
Ren wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:53 pm
eye.surgeon wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:51 pm vanguard.com is down....
Yes it is....sigh...great timing.
there's a market timing joke in here somewhere...
Actually, I find all of these comments about buying today to be quite funny. The Boglehead philosophy says "don't time the market," yet many here are shoving far more into the market today than they were when the market was at this level not long ago. 8-)

Being a trend follower, I can't say that I blame them entirely for making this move, but I think that it is largely a subjective, rather than objective, decision for most.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by alfaspider »

jrbdmb wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:05 pm
mister_sparkle wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:09 pm 1100. :shock:

edit: Make that 1550
Wondering what happened to cause the DOW to drop from 24776 at 3:02 PM to 23999 at 3:11 PM, and then recovered almost of it back by 3:17 PM. Even for a wacky market that seems kinda wacky ... :shock:
Algorithmic trading can make the market do crazy things- see the flash crash.
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"Vanguard.com is down"

Post by Taylor Larimore »

eye.surgeon wrote:
vanguard.com is down..
Probably a good thing. :wink:
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by corn18 »

Terrifying margin calls
Consistently sets low goals and fails to achieve them.
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