I'm not making my jokes obvious enough. I'll work on that, mmk?
U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Brutal; market hasn’t been this low since January 10th, 2018.
How are you guys breaking the news to loved ones?
How are you guys breaking the news to loved ones?
-
- Posts: 3338
- Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 5:04 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
one more thing: never lose money. don't get too greedy.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
-
- Posts: 553
- Joined: Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:26 pm
- willthrill81
- Posts: 32250
- Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:17 pm
- Location: USA
- Contact:
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I'm was interested to hear that ERN is now open to active investing of some flavor to be revealed soon.livesoft wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:31 pmActually, it is best to retire in a bear market. See, for instance, https://earlyretirementnow.com/2018/01/24/random-walk/oliverwendellholmes wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:24 pm If this does become a bear market, great news for young investors to get in on the action! The ideal is to start investing in the bear market and retire in a bull market right?
The Sensible Steward
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
While this is true of the stock market, bond yields have reached levels not seen in a few years and intermediate Treasury funds have reverted to negative real total returns for their past duration. By all accounts valuations are high in all markets, I wouldn't be so flip just because the stock market is the last to know. Having said that, nobody knows what is ahead in the short term or, more importantly, what central bank or other surprises will materialize.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Isn't this simply a time to remember Mr. Bogle's "Don't do something, stand there" advice?
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Wow, worst week since ..... 2016
Washington Post Headline
Washington Post Headline
Dow drops 666 points and posts its worst week since 2016
Don't trust me, look it up. https://www.irs.gov/forms-instructions-and-publications
- SmileyFace
- Posts: 9184
- Joined: Wed Feb 19, 2014 9:11 am
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
The same number of people are buying and selling. Market drops are driven by limit orders. Someone has been sitting on the sidelines and has an order that says "I will only buy 1000 stocks if they are $2 cheaper than they are today". If enough people start selling at the "market price" eventually these low-limit orders start hitting and people start putting in more low-limit buy orders further driving down prices.
Oversimplification but gives you the idea on how the drop occurs....
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I don’t waste my time with bonds ... “cash is king” may be making a comeback thoughzeugmite wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:14 pmWhile this is true of the stock market, bond yields have reached levels not seen in a few years and intermediate Treasury funds have reverted to negative real total returns for their past duration. By all accounts valuations are high in all markets, I wouldn't be so flip just because the stock market is the last to know. Having said that, nobody knows what is ahead in the short term or, more importantly, what central bank or other surprises will materialize.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
The drop in “points” is skewing the severity ... Dow at all time highs - 600 points is not a big deal
Dow at 1,000 - a 600 point drop = end of civilization
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
- SmileyFace
- Posts: 9184
- Joined: Wed Feb 19, 2014 9:11 am
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
This is one of my pet peeves as well. Instead of saying something meaningful like "The Dow dropped 2.5% today" they say the number of points since it sounds more intellectual or more severe or something.
- ResearchMed
- Posts: 16795
- Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2008 10:25 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Er, not everyone "came out ok"...azanon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:21 pmmarked dropped ~ 89% from top to bottom from 29'-32'. We came out ok.
RM
This signature is a placebo. You are in the control group.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
-
- Posts: 2728
- Joined: Mon Nov 10, 2014 10:34 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
It’s all my fault. I had to sell today for a planned much needed purchase. Cue Nedsaid Effect.
Last edited by GoldenFinch on Fri Feb 02, 2018 5:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
RBD was popularized by poster Livesoft. He has many posts talking about it. One of his criteria for it being a RBD is that the day not be a Friday. You can search for his full criteria. I would link it but would be violating his signature line.
For the ashes of his fathers, And the temples of his gods. |
Pensions= 2X yearly expenses. Portfolio= 40X yearly expenses.
-
- Posts: 353
- Joined: Tue Nov 22, 2016 5:24 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I pulled the trigger today. That means it will keep going down on Monday. You are welcome!limeyx wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:52 pmI have some to put in too. Probably moandayImmigrantSaver wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:55 amGood question. I have 2k to put in between now and the end of February (50/50 VXUS and VBR as I am underweight in both). Do I do it now or do I wait.. Decisions decisions..
-
- Posts: 1546
- Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2014 10:09 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Yeah, I'm not sure I'd classify the Great Depression as "coming out ok" for pretty much anyone in the entire world, except a few. People may have done relatively better or worse, but the Greatest Generation and their parents were and still are scarred from the experience.
-
- Posts: 1082
- Joined: Wed Jun 22, 2016 1:41 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I was wondering who was responsible.
Well my 401k and Roth IRA money from my paycheck will be going in on Tuesday & Wednesday next week so you can bet prices will be back up by then.
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
As long as my job is safe, and the jobs of the people I care about, and I don't have to see too many more homeless encampments, and the schools stay open, and everything else keeps on mostly as it is and then after some period of decline while I get to continue to invest and the market doesn't really change much and then the market heads on back up so I come out selling fresh and clean when I need the money...DanMahowny wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:08 pmIndeed. I hope this week is the beginning of a multi-year 50% decline in equities.
Oh yeah, while everything's going to an impolite place, my house better continue being worth more that I'll pay for it.
What's that line about the market able to stay down longer that your tolerance for it....
The sewer system is a form of welfare state. |
-- "Libra", Don DeLillo
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.
-
- Posts: 584
- Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2015 3:34 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I believe today is my first ever day down $25k+....not quite luxury European car territory but maybe a Chevy. And yet I'm pleased because due to some recent rebalancing my total portfolio is less risky than it was a few months ago, which saved me 84 bps compared to what would have happened if I had an allocation of 100% stocks. In short, things are working as they are supposed to, even with today being a bad day for bonds too. That's oddly comforting.
"The Basic Choices for Investors and the One We Strongly Prefer" |
|
https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2011ltr.pdf
- MichaelRpdx
- Posts: 365
- Joined: Sat Feb 27, 2010 6:18 pm
- Location: Portland, Oregon
- Contact:
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Really? I thought BH is a total market investor.WhiteMaxima wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:40 pm BH never time the market. I also want to add: most importantly, BH also is a value investor.
Be Appropriate && Follow Your Curiosity
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Exactly. I would say the overwhelming majority didn’t come out okay. Far fewer safety nets back then.Theoretical wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:58 pmYeah, I'm not sure I'd classify the Great Depression as "coming out ok" for pretty much anyone in the entire world, except a few. People may have done relatively better or worse, but the Greatest Generation and their parents were and still are scarred from the experience.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
What, me worry?
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman
- oldcomputerguy
- Moderator
- Posts: 17932
- Joined: Sun Nov 22, 2015 5:50 am
- Location: Tennessee
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
With grilled hamburgers and a nice bottle of Pinot Grigio.
There is only one success - to be able to spend your life in your own way. (Christopher Morley)
- ResearchMed
- Posts: 16795
- Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2008 10:25 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Let's hope you have many more years to celebrate.
That's a biggie!
RM
This signature is a placebo. You are in the control group.
- TomatoTomahto
- Posts: 17158
- Joined: Mon Apr 11, 2011 1:48 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
"Honey, according to Livesoft's rule, we can buy another Tesla!"
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Yeah, no fear, lots of bravado and tough talk. I suggest you don't mock mother market. And who sold today?These delighted posts will look so sad if this is the start of a deep, multi year bear market.
Paul
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
That is such a coincidence. That rule is exactly how I broke the news to my wife.TomatoTomahto wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 6:48 pm"Honey, according to Livesoft's rule, we can buy another Tesla!"
Though, in my case, the car in question was much cheaper than a Tesla.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I prefer a nice chianti and fava beans....oldcomputerguy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 6:35 pmWith grilled hamburgers and a nice bottle of Pinot Grigio.
On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I'm all the way back to January 3rd or 4th! I haven't looked at our individual holdings, but it's probably because of our hefty international stake.
I was actually amused today watching the market, amazed that what used to be a routine drop hadn't happened since right after Brexit, over 19 months ago.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
It's in the wiki: Abbreviations and Acronyms
RBD - Really Bad Day. A Bogleheads' idiomatic term coined by forum member livesoft. An early mention is in this thread: Today was a Really Bad Day.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
One good thing from the market drop is that I don't have to worry about rebalancing my portfolio! The market did it for me!
A fool and his money are good for business.
- triceratop
- Posts: 5838
- Joined: Tue Aug 04, 2015 8:20 pm
- Location: la la land
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
It is funny and appropriate that the wiki links there because that topic also lacks a definition of a livesoft RBD.LadyGeek wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:21 pmIt's in the wiki: Abbreviations and Acronyms
RBD - Really Bad Day. A Bogleheads' idiomatic term coined by forum member livesoft. An early mention is in this thread: Today was a Really Bad Day.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."
- willthrill81
- Posts: 32250
- Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:17 pm
- Location: USA
- Contact:
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Sometimes, "bravado and tough talk" are what keep people on the path they need to be on.
The Sensible Steward
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
If you bought a 500 fund at the S&P500 peak in 2000, and you had the intention of holding, you wouldn't start making money on it until 2013.
Tell me why I should put money in now on an insane looking peak, amidst deregulation, growing income inequality, and growing interest rates...
In other words, tell me why I shouldn't take out the few thousand I put in a month ago before it goes red, and put it in a high interest savings account, or pay off the rest of my student loans @ 5.5%.
I feel fine about my retirement account, but the things I mentioned have me thinking maybe this particular set of monies would look better on conservative, guaranteed moves.
Tell me why I should put money in now on an insane looking peak, amidst deregulation, growing income inequality, and growing interest rates...
In other words, tell me why I shouldn't take out the few thousand I put in a month ago before it goes red, and put it in a high interest savings account, or pay off the rest of my student loans @ 5.5%.
I feel fine about my retirement account, but the things I mentioned have me thinking maybe this particular set of monies would look better on conservative, guaranteed moves.
- triceratop
- Posts: 5838
- Joined: Tue Aug 04, 2015 8:20 pm
- Location: la la land
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
You should absolutely pay off your 5.5% student loans over stock or bond investing with post-tax money. In my opinion. 5.5% is a high risk-free return.Bwlonge wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:17 pm If you bought a 500 fund at the S&P500 peak in 2000, and you had the intention of holding, you wouldn't start making money on it until 2013.
Tell me why I should put money in now on an insane looking peak, amidst deregulation, growing income inequality, and growing interest rates...
In other words, tell me why I shouldn't take out the few thousand I put in a month ago before it goes red, and put it in a high interest savings account, or pay off the rest of my student loans @ 5.5%.
I feel fine about my retirement account, but the things I mentioned have me thinking maybe this particular set of monies would look better on conservative, guaranteed moves.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."
- willthrill81
- Posts: 32250
- Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:17 pm
- Location: USA
- Contact:
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
You're not factoring in dividends. If these were reinvested, an investor who bought the S&P 500 in Aug., 2000, was in the black in Nov., 2006. Even with the financial crisis, the investor would have been in the black again by Jan., 2011.
The Sensible Steward
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Yes, that's true, but sometimes the cat hits the fan and emotions take controlwillthrill81 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:59 pmSometimes, "bravado and tough talk" are what keep people on the path they need to be on.
Paul
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.
- willthrill81
- Posts: 32250
- Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:17 pm
- Location: USA
- Contact:
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
If and when that happens, there is little that can be done to stop it. That's part of the reason why I am a trend follower; I don't trust myself to do nothing if stocks did a repeat of 2000-2002 or 2008, which will surely happen again in the future at some point.pkcrafter wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:45 pmYes, that's true, but sometimes the cat hits the fan and emotions take controlwillthrill81 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:59 pmSometimes, "bravado and tough talk" are what keep people on the path they need to be on.
Paul
The Sensible Steward
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Note that I own ~ 25% international:
International plunged just as much today. That global diversification thing doesn’t always play out in the way some want it to.
International plunged just as much today. That global diversification thing doesn’t always play out in the way some want it to.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
With that loan, you shouldn't put money in the market in the first place.Bwlonge wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:17 pm If you bought a 500 fund at the S&P500 peak in 2000, and you had the intention of holding, you wouldn't start making money on it until 2013.
Tell me why I should put money in now on an insane looking peak, amidst deregulation, growing income inequality, and growing interest rates...
In other words, tell me why I shouldn't take out the few thousand I put in a month ago before it goes red, and put it in a high interest savings account, or pay off the rest of my student loans @ 5.5%.
I feel fine about my retirement account, but the things I mentioned have me thinking maybe this particular set of monies would look better on conservative, guaranteed moves.
Time is the ultimate currency.
- TimeRunner
- Posts: 1939
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2012 8:23 pm
- Location: Beach-side, CA
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Came close to doing a big-for-me TY18 Roth IRA conversion today but I will wait a bit longer to see if the return-to-the-mean meme becomes reality.
One cannot enlighten the unconscious. | "All I need are some tasty waves, a cool buzz, and I'm fine." -Jeff Spicoli