U.S. stocks in free fall

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azanon
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by azanon »

parsi1 wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:49 pm
azanon wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:00 pm
jrbdmb wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 12:20 pm Could the explanation be as simple as rising bond rates make stocks relatively less attractive?
I plan on watching Cramer tonight, so I can let you know what it was by tomorrow. He usually knows.
:confused :D :oops: :sharebeer :idea:
I'm not making my jokes obvious enough. I'll work on that, mmk?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RRAAYY3 »

Brutal; market hasn’t been this low since January 10th, 2018.

How are you guys breaking the news to loved ones?
WhiteMaxima
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by WhiteMaxima »

one more thing: never lose money. don't get too greedy.
sreynard
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sreynard »

Halicar wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:33 pm
fantasytensai wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:23 pm More people are selling than are buying.
Maybe I'm just being dense, but by definition, every time someone sells a stock, someone else buys it. So there can never be more people selling than buying, no?
If I sell 1000 shares, 10 people can buy 100 shares each, no? :D
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jehovasfitness »

RRAAYY3 wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:00 pm Brutal; market hasn’t been this low since January 10th, 2018.

How are you guys breaking the news to loved ones?
:sharebeer :P
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 »

livesoft wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:31 pm
oliverwendellholmes wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:24 pm If this does become a bear market, great news for young investors to get in on the action! The ideal is to start investing in the bear market and retire in a bull market right?
Actually, it is best to retire in a bear market. See, for instance, https://earlyretirementnow.com/2018/01/24/random-walk/
I'm was interested to hear that ERN is now open to active investing of some flavor to be revealed soon.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by zeugmite »

RRAAYY3 wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:00 pm Brutal; market hasn’t been this low since January 10th, 2018.

How are you guys breaking the news to loved ones?
While this is true of the stock market, bond yields have reached levels not seen in a few years and intermediate Treasury funds have reverted to negative real total returns for their past duration. By all accounts valuations are high in all markets, I wouldn't be so flip just because the stock market is the last to know. Having said that, nobody knows what is ahead in the short term or, more importantly, what central bank or other surprises will materialize.
rgs92
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by rgs92 »

Isn't this simply a time to remember Mr. Bogle's "Don't do something, stand there" advice?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jebmke »

Wow, worst week since ..... 2016

Washington Post Headline
Dow drops 666 points and posts its worst week since 2016
Don't trust me, look it up. https://www.irs.gov/forms-instructions-and-publications
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SmileyFace
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by SmileyFace »

Halicar wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:33 pm
fantasytensai wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:23 pm More people are selling than are buying.
Maybe I'm just being dense, but by definition, every time someone sells a stock, someone else buys it. So there can never be more people selling than buying, no?
The same number of people are buying and selling. Market drops are driven by limit orders. Someone has been sitting on the sidelines and has an order that says "I will only buy 1000 stocks if they are $2 cheaper than they are today". If enough people start selling at the "market price" eventually these low-limit orders start hitting and people start putting in more low-limit buy orders further driving down prices.
Oversimplification but gives you the idea on how the drop occurs....
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RRAAYY3 »

zeugmite wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:14 pm
RRAAYY3 wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:00 pm Brutal; market hasn’t been this low since January 10th, 2018.

How are you guys breaking the news to loved ones?
While this is true of the stock market, bond yields have reached levels not seen in a few years and intermediate Treasury funds have reverted to negative real total returns for their past duration. By all accounts valuations are high in all markets, I wouldn't be so flip just because the stock market is the last to know. Having said that, nobody knows what is ahead in the short term or, more importantly, what central bank or other surprises will materialize.
I don’t waste my time with bonds ... “cash is king” may be making a comeback though
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RRAAYY3 »

jebmke wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:15 pm Wow, worst week since ..... 2016

Washington Post Headline
Dow drops 666 points and posts its worst week since 2016
The drop in “points” is skewing the severity ... Dow at all time highs - 600 points is not a big deal

Dow at 1,000 - a 600 point drop = end of civilization
azanon
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by azanon »

RRAAYY3 wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:19 pm
jebmke wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:15 pm Wow, worst week since ..... 2016

Washington Post Headline
Dow drops 666 points and posts its worst week since 2016
The drop in “points” is skewing the severity ... Dow at all time highs - 600 points is not a big deal

Dow at 1,000 - a 600 point drop = end of civilization
marked dropped ~ 89% from top to bottom from 29'-32'. We came out ok.
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SmileyFace
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by SmileyFace »

RRAAYY3 wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:19 pm
jebmke wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:15 pm Wow, worst week since ..... 2016

Washington Post Headline
Dow drops 666 points and posts its worst week since 2016
The drop in “points” is skewing the severity ... Dow at all time highs - 600 points is not a big deal

Dow at 1,000 - a 600 point drop = end of civilization
This is one of my pet peeves as well. Instead of saying something meaningful like "The Dow dropped 2.5% today" they say the number of points since it sounds more intellectual or more severe or something.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sreynard »

TSquare wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:24 pm I want to make a comment but I'm very superstitious and don't want to jinx us all!
Well that explains it then! The market was holding its breath in anticipation of TSquare's comment, but his silence caused increased uncertainty. :annoyed

:D
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ResearchMed
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ResearchMed »

azanon wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:21 pm
RRAAYY3 wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:19 pm
jebmke wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:15 pm Wow, worst week since ..... 2016

Washington Post Headline
Dow drops 666 points and posts its worst week since 2016
The drop in “points” is skewing the severity ... Dow at all time highs - 600 points is not a big deal

Dow at 1,000 - a 600 point drop = end of civilization
marked dropped ~ 89% from top to bottom from 29'-32'. We came out ok.
Er, not everyone "came out ok"...

RM
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sreynard
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sreynard »

azanon wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:59 pm
parsi1 wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:49 pm
azanon wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:00 pm
jrbdmb wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 12:20 pm Could the explanation be as simple as rising bond rates make stocks relatively less attractive?
I plan on watching Cramer tonight, so I can let you know what it was by tomorrow. He usually knows.
:confused :D :oops: :sharebeer :idea:
I'm not making my jokes obvious enough. I'll work on that, mmk?
There was a joke? Cramer is held in such high esteem on this forum many may not have noticed.... :P
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ved »

sergeant wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:39 pm
lostdog wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:38 amRBD today?
No. It's Friday.
So, how is an RBD defined?
sreynard
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sreynard »

RRAAYY3 wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:00 pm Brutal; market hasn’t been this low since January 10th, 2018.

How are you guys breaking the news to loved ones?
I was going to go walk around the lake to think that over, but the temptation to throw myself in may be to grate to resist.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by GoldenFinch »

It’s all my fault. I had to sell today for a planned much needed purchase. Cue Nedsaid Effect.
Last edited by GoldenFinch on Fri Feb 02, 2018 5:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by sergeant »

ved wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:28 pm
sergeant wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:39 pm
lostdog wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:38 amRBD today?
No. It's Friday.
So, how is an RBD defined?
RBD was popularized by poster Livesoft. He has many posts talking about it. One of his criteria for it being a RBD is that the day not be a Friday. You can search for his full criteria. I would link it but would be violating his signature line. :D
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ImmigrantSaver »

limeyx wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:52 pm
ImmigrantSaver wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:55 am
lostdog wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:38 amRBD today?
Good question. I have 2k to put in between now and the end of February (50/50 VXUS and VBR as I am underweight in both). Do I do it now or do I wait.. Decisions decisions..
I have some to put in too. Probably moanday
I pulled the trigger today. That means it will keep going down on Monday. You are welcome! :beer
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Theoretical »

ResearchMed wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:24 pm
azanon wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:21 pm marked dropped ~ 89% from top to bottom from 29'-32'. We came out ok.
Er, not everyone "came out ok"...

RM
Yeah, I'm not sure I'd classify the Great Depression as "coming out ok" for pretty much anyone in the entire world, except a few. People may have done relatively better or worse, but the Greatest Generation and their parents were and still are scarred from the experience.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Engineer250 »

nolesrule wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:03 pm It's my fault. Yesterday I invested the second half of our 2018 backdoor Roth IRA contributions, our taxable account investments for February and started UTMA brokerage accounts for both my kids.
I was wondering who was responsible.

Well my 401k and Roth IRA money from my paycheck will be going in on Tuesday & Wednesday next week so you can bet prices will be back up by then.
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by roymeo »

DanMahowny wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:08 pm
bligh wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:53 pm These delighted posts will look so sad if this is the start of a deep, multi year bear market. :shock:
Indeed. I hope this week is the beginning of a multi-year 50% decline in equities.
As long as my job is safe, and the jobs of the people I care about, and I don't have to see too many more homeless encampments, and the schools stay open, and everything else keeps on mostly as it is and then after some period of decline while I get to continue to invest and the market doesn't really change much and then the market heads on back up so I come out selling fresh and clean when I need the money...

Oh yeah, while everything's going to an impolite place, my house better continue being worth more that I'll pay for it.

What's that line about the market able to stay down longer that your tolerance for it....
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CULater »

Image
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by chicagoan23 »

thangngo wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:27 am On a day like this, some people will see their portfolio lose in value similar to the cost of a luxury European car.
I believe today is my first ever day down $25k+....not quite luxury European car territory but maybe a Chevy. And yet I'm pleased because due to some recent rebalancing my total portfolio is less risky than it was a few months ago, which saved me 84 bps compared to what would have happened if I had an allocation of 100% stocks. In short, things are working as they are supposed to, even with today being a bad day for bonds too. That's oddly comforting.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MichaelRpdx »

WhiteMaxima wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:40 pm BH never time the market. I also want to add: most importantly, BH also is a value investor.
Really? I thought BH is a total market investor.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lws6772 »

RRAAYY3 wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:00 pm Brutal; market hasn’t been this low since January 10th, 2018.

How are you guys breaking the news to loved ones?
We're actually celebrating, 13 years ago this week doctors were sawing my sternum in half. Just glad to be alive to see a little market drop. :sharebeer
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by yukonjack »

Theoretical wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:58 pm
ResearchMed wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:24 pm
azanon wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:21 pm marked dropped ~ 89% from top to bottom from 29'-32'. We came out ok.
Er, not everyone "came out ok"...

RM
Yeah, I'm not sure I'd classify the Great Depression as "coming out ok" for pretty much anyone in the entire world, except a few. People may have done relatively better or worse, but the Greatest Generation and their parents were and still are scarred from the experience.
Exactly. I would say the overwhelming majority didn’t come out okay. Far fewer safety nets back then.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oldzey »

Image

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oldcomputerguy »

RRAAYY3 wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:00 pm Brutal; market hasn’t been this low since January 10th, 2018.

How are you guys breaking the news to loved ones?
With grilled hamburgers and a nice bottle of Pinot Grigio.
:beer
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ResearchMed
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ResearchMed »

lws6772 wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 5:44 pm
RRAAYY3 wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:00 pm Brutal; market hasn’t been this low since January 10th, 2018.

How are you guys breaking the news to loved ones?
We're actually celebrating, 13 years ago this week doctors were sawing my sternum in half. Just glad to be alive to see a little market drop. :sharebeer
Let's hope you have many more years to celebrate.
That's a biggie!

:happy

RM
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TomatoTomahto »

RRAAYY3 wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:00 pm How are you guys breaking the news to loved ones?
"Honey, according to Livesoft's rule, we can buy another Tesla!"
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by pkcrafter »

These delighted posts will look so sad if this is the start of a deep, multi year bear market.
Yeah, no fear, lots of bravado and tough talk. I suggest you don't mock mother market. :happy And who sold today?


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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bligh »

TomatoTomahto wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 6:48 pm
RRAAYY3 wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:00 pm How are you guys breaking the news to loved ones?
"Honey, according to Livesoft's rule, we can buy another Tesla!"
That is such a coincidence. That rule is exactly how I broke the news to my wife.

Though, in my case, the car in question was much cheaper than a Tesla. :mrgreen:
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CULater »

oldcomputerguy wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 6:35 pm
RRAAYY3 wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:00 pm Brutal; market hasn’t been this low since January 10th, 2018.

How are you guys breaking the news to loved ones?
With grilled hamburgers and a nice bottle of Pinot Grigio.
:beer
I prefer a nice chianti and fava beans....
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jhfenton »

RRAAYY3 wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:00 pm Brutal; market hasn’t been this low since January 10th, 2018.

How are you guys breaking the news to loved ones?
I'm all the way back to January 3rd or 4th! :oops: I haven't looked at our individual holdings, but it's probably because of our hefty international stake. :beer

I was actually amused today watching the market, amazed that what used to be a routine drop hadn't happened since right after Brexit, over 19 months ago.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by LadyGeek »

ved wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:28 pm
sergeant wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:39 pm
lostdog wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:38 amRBD today?
No. It's Friday.
So, how is an RBD defined?
It's in the wiki: Abbreviations and Acronyms
RBD - Really Bad Day. A Bogleheads' idiomatic term coined by forum member livesoft. An early mention is in this thread: Today was a Really Bad Day.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nedsaid »

One good thing from the market drop is that I don't have to worry about rebalancing my portfolio! The market did it for me!
A fool and his money are good for business.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop »

LadyGeek wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:21 pm
ved wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:28 pm
sergeant wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:39 pm
lostdog wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:38 amRBD today?
No. It's Friday.
So, how is an RBD defined?
It's in the wiki: Abbreviations and Acronyms
RBD - Really Bad Day. A Bogleheads' idiomatic term coined by forum member livesoft. An early mention is in this thread: Today was a Really Bad Day.
It is funny and appropriate that the wiki links there because that topic also lacks a definition of a livesoft RBD.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 »

pkcrafter wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 6:59 pm
These delighted posts will look so sad if this is the start of a deep, multi year bear market.
Yeah, no fear, lots of bravado and tough talk. I suggest you don't mock mother market. :happy And who sold today?
Sometimes, "bravado and tough talk" are what keep people on the path they need to be on.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Bwlonge »

If you bought a 500 fund at the S&P500 peak in 2000, and you had the intention of holding, you wouldn't start making money on it until 2013.

Tell me why I should put money in now on an insane looking peak, amidst deregulation, growing income inequality, and growing interest rates...

In other words, tell me why I shouldn't take out the few thousand I put in a month ago before it goes red, and put it in a high interest savings account, or pay off the rest of my student loans @ 5.5%.

I feel fine about my retirement account, but the things I mentioned have me thinking maybe this particular set of monies would look better on conservative, guaranteed moves.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by triceratop »

Bwlonge wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:17 pm If you bought a 500 fund at the S&P500 peak in 2000, and you had the intention of holding, you wouldn't start making money on it until 2013.

Tell me why I should put money in now on an insane looking peak, amidst deregulation, growing income inequality, and growing interest rates...

In other words, tell me why I shouldn't take out the few thousand I put in a month ago before it goes red, and put it in a high interest savings account, or pay off the rest of my student loans @ 5.5%.

I feel fine about my retirement account, but the things I mentioned have me thinking maybe this particular set of monies would look better on conservative, guaranteed moves.
You should absolutely pay off your 5.5% student loans over stock or bond investing with post-tax money. In my opinion. 5.5% is a high risk-free return.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 »

Bwlonge wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:17 pm If you bought a 500 fund at the S&P500 peak in 2000, and you had the intention of holding, you wouldn't start making money on it until 2013.
You're not factoring in dividends. If these were reinvested, an investor who bought the S&P 500 in Aug., 2000, was in the black in Nov., 2006. Even with the financial crisis, the investor would have been in the black again by Jan., 2011.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by pkcrafter »

willthrill81 wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:59 pm
pkcrafter wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 6:59 pm
These delighted posts will look so sad if this is the start of a deep, multi year bear market.
Yeah, no fear, lots of bravado and tough talk. I suggest you don't mock mother market. :happy And who sold today?
Sometimes, "bravado and tough talk" are what keep people on the path they need to be on.
Yes, that's true, but sometimes the cat hits the fan and emotions take control :happy

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 »

pkcrafter wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:45 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:59 pm
pkcrafter wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 6:59 pm
These delighted posts will look so sad if this is the start of a deep, multi year bear market.
Yeah, no fear, lots of bravado and tough talk. I suggest you don't mock mother market. :happy And who sold today?
Sometimes, "bravado and tough talk" are what keep people on the path they need to be on.
Yes, that's true, but sometimes the cat hits the fan and emotions take control :happy

Paul
If and when that happens, there is little that can be done to stop it. That's part of the reason why I am a trend follower; I don't trust myself to do nothing if stocks did a repeat of 2000-2002 or 2008, which will surely happen again in the future at some point.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by columbia »

Note that I own ~ 25% international:

International plunged just as much today. That global diversification thing doesn’t always play out in the way some want it to.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by H-Town »

Bwlonge wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:17 pm If you bought a 500 fund at the S&P500 peak in 2000, and you had the intention of holding, you wouldn't start making money on it until 2013.

Tell me why I should put money in now on an insane looking peak, amidst deregulation, growing income inequality, and growing interest rates...

In other words, tell me why I shouldn't take out the few thousand I put in a month ago before it goes red, and put it in a high interest savings account, or pay off the rest of my student loans @ 5.5%.

I feel fine about my retirement account, but the things I mentioned have me thinking maybe this particular set of monies would look better on conservative, guaranteed moves.
With that loan, you shouldn't put money in the market in the first place.
Time is the ultimate currency.
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TimeRunner
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

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Came close to doing a big-for-me TY18 Roth IRA conversion today but I will wait a bit longer to see if the return-to-the-mean meme becomes reality.
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