Invest or wait?

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RockyRT
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Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:37 pm

Invest or wait?

Post by RockyRT » Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:18 pm

Should I invest in this bull market or wait for a correction. I don’t have any invested except a 401k. I kept telling myself by low.

cjg
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Re: Invest or wait?

Post by cjg » Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:26 pm

People have been asking the same question since 2011. Look at how much things have gone up since then. I'm sure that we'll have a bear market eventually but the drop from the bear market could still end up being well above today's prices.

RadAudit
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Re: Invest or wait?

Post by RadAudit » Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:28 pm

The answer to the question lies in selecting an asset allocation that fits your need, willingness and ability to accept the risk of a market correction in equities, and allows you to meet your goals in a timely manner.
Last edited by RadAudit on Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
FI is the best revenge. LBYM. Invest the rest. Stay the course. - PS: The cavalry isn't coming, kids. You are on your own.

livesoft
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Re: Invest or wait?

Post by livesoft » Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:29 pm

I think you should invest now. Here's my prediction: You will lose money either way, so you have to expect that. But you will only make money if you invest.
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broslami
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Re: Invest or wait?

Post by broslami » Fri Jan 26, 2018 12:49 am

I would probably go to a cave and meditate on the future. When you have a good feeling in your belly, then it is likely the time to invest. Plus you could also invest when the market implodes and everyone thinks the world is going to end. If you invest at one of these two times you'll be ok.

People who want you to put money into the market right away cite research studies but really it's all a vast conspiracy theory designed by the illuminati to keep the masses poor.

Your gut knows best. Good luck.

TwstdSista
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Re: Invest or wait?

Post by TwstdSista » Fri Jan 26, 2018 4:26 am

I can't answer that for you, but I'm investing now. Probably every month this year.

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Toons
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Location: Hills of Tennessee

Re: Invest or wait?

Post by Toons » Fri Jan 26, 2018 5:26 am

Wait For What?
Put The Compounding Machine To Work Now..
Remember,
Investing means just that ,
Bare Minimum ten years.
Preferably for life.
I have invested at every market top since
1980.They aren't "tops" anymore.
:mrgreen:
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

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ruralavalon
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Re: Invest or wait?

Post by ruralavalon » Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:55 am

Welcome to the forum :) .
RockyRT wrote:
Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:18 pm
Should I invest in this bull market or wait for a correction. I don’t have any invested except a 401k. I kept telling myself by low.
I always invested whenever I had any money available to invest.

Are you investing the annual maximum allowed in your 401k?
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

300bigboys
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Re: Invest or wait?

Post by 300bigboys » Fri Jan 26, 2018 10:21 am

If you believe in the general Boglehead philosophy, this piece has the most compelling answer to your question IMO.

The World's Worst Market Timer

The market will go up over the course of decades. If that assumption isn't true then all our investing ideas go out the window.

TOJ
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Re: Invest or wait?

Post by TOJ » Fri Jan 26, 2018 10:26 am

The market was "overvalued" at DOW 18K when Trump was elected. We're now at 26K. No one can tell you where it'll be in another year. But in another 30 years, all signs point to it being higher than it is today.

DrivingFun
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Re: Invest or wait?

Post by DrivingFun » Fri Jan 26, 2018 11:58 am

I will throw in my $0.02. I faced a similar dilemma in 2007, I was a few years out of college and finally had some money. I was wresting with whether I should lump sum in gradually enter the market. Most people stated that going all in would yield better long term results. I ended up doing that and the rest is now history as they say. Am I glad I did that? Today, yes very much so. If you were to ask me in 08', I would have said I was a complete fool to do so. My portfolio probably lost 40-50% of its value when the market crashed. I was young and the timetable for that money was indefinite, so I didn't sweat it too much, but I can't say it felt good for a good year there. Eventually we got another incredible bull run and loses quickly (relatively) became gains and today this is all ancient history. What did I learn? To be honestly I am not sure, other than when manure hits the fan be very patient, things eventually recover.

Today I have a decent chunk (albeit still relatively small compared to my invested portfolio) that's on the sidelines and I have no heart to dump it into the market, it's sitting in a CD. I'm a little gunshy and conflicted based on my prior experience. I might slowly DCA in, I don't know. The run we've had for the last 2 years just seams spooky.

youngpleb
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Re: Invest or wait?

Post by youngpleb » Fri Jan 26, 2018 1:57 pm

The market might go up. The market might go down. The only sure thing is that when it does, you'll have less time to invest and let your money begin to compound than you do right now. We need a bot or something that will edit each instance of someone saying the word "wait" to "squander time" or something lol.

ColoradoRick
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Re: Invest or wait?

Post by ColoradoRick » Fri Jan 26, 2018 3:20 pm

There is a great article online by Ben Carlson called "What if you invested only at Market Peaks?" dated 2/25/2014. It shows if you don't sell the best time to buy is now. Other responders are right, determine your AA. Once you decide that, then if you feel better invest 25% every 3 months or 6 months if that makes you feel better, but statistically best to do all at once. But keep doing it. There is a reason that the average investor only has half the returns from the stock market because he tries to time the market. 3 buckets (equities/bonds-cds/cash). Rebalance once a year.

Howard Marks - "A hugely profitable investment that doesn't begin with discomfort is usually an oxymoron."

That is the toll for superior returns and your ability to be in the top 10% net worth wise in this fine nation. Most people are "sure" the market is going to tumble. However they've been saying that since 2011 and look what they've lost. They are right there will be a correction. But nobody knows when....look back to S & P returns in 1990s. Many years eye popping returns. Do you have the stomach for it? (not the brains, the stomach!) SIMPLE BUT NOT EASY

Topic Author
RockyRT
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Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:37 pm

Re: Invest or wait?

Post by RockyRT » Fri Jan 26, 2018 7:12 pm

ruralavalon wrote:
Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:55 am
Welcome to the forum :) .
RockyRT wrote:
Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:18 pm
Should I invest in this bull market or wait for a correction. I don’t have any invested except a 401k. I kept telling myself by low.
I always invested whenever I had any money available to invest.

Are you investing the annual maximum allowed in your 401k?
No only about 4000 a year. 38 Married 2 kids just been focused on paying off house 2 years to go will be debt free (I hate Debt) Worth $350000. I know it is probably not the best way to go but never understand investing until now becoming very interested. I now have a Vanguard account just in money market. Been reading a lot, index fund look like a good way to start. Have $50000 in savings. When the house is paid off that will free up an 36000 to invest a year. Would love to retire at 55. We make about 160000 a year. I have about 50000 in 401k wife has about the same.

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Sandtrap
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Re: Invest or wait?

Post by Sandtrap » Fri Jan 26, 2018 7:18 pm

RockyRT wrote:
Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:18 pm
Should I invest in this bull market or wait for a correction. I don’t have any invested except a 401k. I kept telling myself by low.
Buy Low.. . or High.
Buy Now.

Read About Bob, The Worst Market Timer
What happens if you only invested at market highs?
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/0 ... ket-timer/

If you don't start now. . .when are you gonna?

j :D
Wiki Bogleheads Wiki: Everything You Need to Know

DrGoogle2017
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Re: Invest or wait?

Post by DrGoogle2017 » Fri Jan 26, 2018 7:22 pm

If you can’t stomach the lump sump way, slowly DCA into the market. Dont wait.

Grt2bOutdoors
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Location: New York

Re: Invest or wait?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Fri Jan 26, 2018 7:47 pm

RockyRT wrote:
Fri Jan 26, 2018 7:12 pm
ruralavalon wrote:
Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:55 am
Welcome to the forum :) .
RockyRT wrote:
Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:18 pm
Should I invest in this bull market or wait for a correction. I don’t have any invested except a 401k. I kept telling myself by low.
I always invested whenever I had any money available to invest.

Are you investing the annual maximum allowed in your 401k?
No only about 4000 a year. 38 Married 2 kids just been focused on paying off house 2 years to go will be debt free (I hate Debt) Worth $350000. I know it is probably not the best way to go but never understand investing until now becoming very interested. I now have a Vanguard account just in money market. Been reading a lot, index fund look like a good way to start. Have $50000 in savings. When the house is paid off that will free up an 36000 to invest a year. Would love to retire at 55. We make about 160000 a year. I have about 50000 in 401k wife has about the same.
Hello and welcome to the forum.
How much do you estimate you will need annually to be able to retire at 55? A good rule of thumb is one can withdraw 4% from retirement assets at age 65, retiring at age 55 and ensuring the assets last longer than 30 years may require a lower withdrawal rate, 3-3.5%. Do you have a pension?

The market could go higher, it may also decline, timing is a losers game. Far better to develop an investment policy statement, read a few books, decide on an asset allocation, the invest and stay the course. Start by reading the wiki. Read The Little Book of Common Sense Investing by John Bogle. Take your time, the market could go higher before you actually begin investing in a significant way or not, far better to understand why before you plunge headfirst into anything in life. Ask your questions here.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

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ruralavalon
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Re: Invest or wait?

Post by ruralavalon » Sat Jan 27, 2018 8:20 am

RockyRT wrote:
Fri Jan 26, 2018 7:12 pm
ruralavalon wrote:
Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:55 am
Welcome to the forum :) .
RockyRT wrote:
Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:18 pm
Should I invest in this bull market or wait for a correction. I don’t have any invested except a 401k. I kept telling myself by low.
I always invested whenever I had any money available to invest.

Are you investing the annual maximum allowed in your 401k?
No only about 4000 a year. 38 Married 2 kids just been focused on paying off house 2 years to go will be debt free (I hate Debt) Worth $350000. I know it is probably not the best way to go but never understand investing until now becoming very interested. I now have a Vanguard account just in money market. Been reading a lot, index fund look like a good way to start. Have $50000 in savings. When the house is paid off that will free up an 36000 to invest a year. Would love to retire at 55. We make about 160000 a year. I have about 50000 in 401k wife has about the same.
If the funds offered in your 401k are decent you should definitely contribute more to your 401k. Don't pass up the opportunity to have tax-advantaged investments.

If the funds offered in your plan are decent then I suggest increasing your contributions to the maximum $18.5k per year, and if necessary drawing from your $50,000 cash savings to cover living expenses you would otherwise have paid from your paycheck.

What funds are you using in your 401k? What other funds are offered in your 401k? Please give fund names, tickers and expense ratios. Same information for your wife's 401k? What sort of Vanguard account are you using (traditional IRA, Roth IRA, taxable)? What is the interest rate on your mortgage note?

Please simply add this to your original post using the edit button, it helps a lot if all of your information is in one place. Please see the post "asking portfolio questions" for format.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

Cycle
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Re: Invest or wait?

Post by Cycle » Sat Jan 27, 2018 9:40 am

Bogleheads buy low through rebalancing, not market timing. Countless posts on here on the futility of market timing.
Never look back unless you are planning to go that way

Topic Author
RockyRT
Posts: 7
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:37 pm

Re: Invest or wait?

Post by RockyRT » Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:18 am

My 401k: right now at $50000 is in:
VFIAX 50% exp. ratio-.04%
VSIAX 20% exp. ratio-.07%
VTINX 30% exp. ratio- .13% bonds mostly 41% govt and 12% corporate are the main %
The other funds in the 401k are a bunch of the Vanguard target date funds and then there are:
PTTRX-bond exp ratio- .51%
VHGEX-international exp. ratio .51%
VPCCX -er-.46%
RERGX- international .50%
RBAIX .50%
REIPX .54%
VMFXX .11% money market
HNACX .62%
JMVRX 1.03%
3.375% interest rate on house I understand it is a low interest rate and be market more putting it into investments but I want to own my house was laid off for a while back in 2010 would rather not have worry about it. I am a union plumber. I also have a pension.
Last edited by RockyRT on Sun Jan 28, 2018 11:37 am, edited 1 time in total.

TwstdSista
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Re: Invest or wait?

Post by TwstdSista » Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:34 am

Any chance you can list the names of those funds and the expense ratios? It will help forum posters to give you the most solid advice.

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ruralavalon
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Re: Invest or wait?

Post by ruralavalon » Sun Jan 28, 2018 10:50 am

RockyRT wrote:
Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:18 am
My 401k: right now at $50000 is in:
VFIAX 50%
VSIAX 20%
VTINX 30%
The other funds in the 401k are a bunch of the Vanguard target date funds and then there are:
PTTRX-bond
VHGEX-international
VPCCX
RERGX- international
RBAIX
REIPX
VMFXX
HNACX
JMVRX
Please give fund names and expense ratios, in addition to the ticker symbols. Most of us haven't memorized many ticker symbols, other than for the funds we personally own, so would have no look up the fund names in order to respond. The expense ratios are critical in fund selection. But sometimes funds in a 401k are offered with expense ratios that are different than when offered to the general public, so we can't just look them up.

My initial impression is that good funds are offered in your 401k, so you should now increase your contributions to your 401k, and invest more there now to take advantage of the tax benefits.

Please provide the same information for your wife's 401k. (If her 401k offers funds that are even better, it might be best to increase contributions to her 401k instead or also.)

What sort of account are you using at Vanguard? What investments do you have in it? How large is the account?

(Its often important to coordinate investments among all of your accounts.)

What is the interest rate on your mortgage note? (If the interest rate is high, then it may be a priority to pay it off.)

You can simply add this to your last post using the edit button.

In general please see the wiki article "Prioritizing Investments".
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

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