likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

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Lauretta
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likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by Lauretta » Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:52 am

Someone I know (who seems to have been pretty succesful in money management) pointed out the following, when asked about Bitcoin:
'There are certain times in the year:
Tulips – first week of September 1637
Wall Street 1929 - September 3rd
Gold 1980 - January 21st
UK Tech mania 1999 - December 31st
US Tech mania 2000 - March 16th
Suggesting that the as we approach December 31st it might be time to get out of Bitcoin.
This does not make much sense to me since 5 pieces of individual data might well be random dates and would seem to be far from enough to make meaningful statistics (also the Uk and US manias are probably related). Still I have no experience in money management and this person does.
So does it make sense to you to think in terms of these past dates to infer a likeky date for the next (Bitcoin) crash?
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Soon2BXProgrammer
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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by Soon2BXProgrammer » Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:03 am

so your plan is to sell everything else and go all in until then?

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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by Watty » Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:09 am

People brains are wired to see patterns where there is none.

This is why we see things in the shapes of clouds and inkblots.

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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by oldcomputerguy » Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:13 am

Nobody know nuthin’. Predictions of the exact time frame of the next crash (Bitcoin or anything else) are worthless.
It’s taken me a lot of years, but I’ve come around to this: If you’re dumb, surround yourself with smart people. And if you’re smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you.

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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by Lauretta » Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:16 am

Soon2BXProgrammer wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:03 am
so your plan is to sell everything else and go all in until then?
Not at all, because - as I wrote in the OP - this argument doesn't make sense to me. I have 0% in Bitcoin at present, and the most I would ever consider putting in Bitcoin is 0,5% of my liquid assets - about 0,3% of my total assets. This sounds small but in terms of the absolute amount it's the money I am willing to risk losing if it goes wrong. So I would certainly never go 'all in' like you write.
If you (re)read my OP you will see that my question concerned the methodology of the wealth manager I was quoting: my question is: does it make sense to you to look at a few past dates where a few special events (like crashes) happened in order to 'predict' the next one? Is that something people do in finance?
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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by Thesaints » Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:16 am

Watty wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:09 am
People brains are wired to see patterns where there is none.

This is why we see things in the shapes of clouds and inkblots.
I don’t see a pattern in the OP’s dates...

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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by Lauretta » Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:18 am

Watty wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:09 am
People brains are wired to see patterns where there is none.

This is why we see things in the shapes of clouds and inkblots.
Thanks for your answer :happy - I like the clouds and inkblots simile
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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by chevca » Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:20 am

Lauretta wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:52 am
'There are certain times in the year:
Tulips – first week of September 1637
Wall Street 1929 - September 3rd
Gold 1980 - January 21st
UK Tech mania 1999 - December 31st
US Tech mania 2000 - March 16th
Suggesting that the as we approach December 31st it might be time to get out of Bitcoin.

So does it make sense to you to think in terms of these past dates to infer a likeky date for the next (Bitcoin) crash?
No, makes no sense to me what so ever. September 3rd makes just as much sense to me looking at those dates.

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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by grok87 » Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:21 am

"I have a strong psychic belief that [bitcoin will crash] on New Years Eve..."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kiiuc0M4L40
Keep calm and Boglehead on. KCBO.

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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by Liberty1100 » Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:21 am

There's really nothing in common with them besides a "bubble bursting". They seem to be arbitrary dates to me.

The bitcoin bubble, if there is one, cannot be inferred from these dates, as there really isn't anything comparable between them. Bitcoin is a much more a global phenomenon than any of those were.

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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by Soon2BXProgrammer » Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:23 am

Lauretta wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:16 am
Soon2BXProgrammer wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:03 am
so your plan is to sell everything else and go all in until then?
Not at all, because - as I wrote in the OP - this argument doesn't make sense to me. I have 0% in Bitcoin at present, and the most I would ever consider putting in Bitcoin is 0,5% of my liquid assets - about 0,3% of my total assets. This sounds small but in terms of the absolute amount it's the money I am willing to risk losing if it goes wrong. So I would certainly never go 'all in' like you write.
If you (re)read my OP you will see that my question concerned the methodology of the wealth manager I was quoting: my question is: does it make sense to you to look at a few past dates where a few special events (like crashes) happened in order to 'predict' the next one? Is that something people do in finance?
I was trolling your post a little bit. My apologies.

Wealth Managers are really good at one thing which is not investing. They are good at moving your wealth to become their wealth. You should ask the Wealth Manager, how much of their personal money is tied up in the scheme. and if they are so confident about it.. why wouldn't they borrow against their other assets, go all in themselves, and cash out in the nick of time.

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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by Valuethinker » Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:26 am

Lauretta wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:52 am
Someone I know (who seems to have been pretty succesful in money management) pointed out the following, when asked about Bitcoin:
'There are certain times in the year:
Tulips – first week of September 1637
Wall Street 1929 - September 3rd
Gold 1980 - January 21st
UK Tech mania 1999 - December 31st
US Tech mania 2000 - March 16th
Suggesting that the as we approach December 31st it might be time to get out of Bitcoin.
This does not make much sense to me since 5 pieces of individual data might well be random dates and would seem to be far from enough to make meaningful statistics (also the Uk and US manias are probably related). Still I have no experience in money management and this person does.
So does it make sense to you to think in terms of these past dates to infer a likeky date for the next (Bitcoin) crash?
There was the well established "January effect" - the outperformance of small cap stocks was concentrated in January.

This was tied to how portfolio managers work and also to tax loss selling (at the end of the previous year, thus creating bargains for investors in January). However once it was published, it became less strong and moved ever earlier-- suggesting that fund managers were trading on it, thus eliminating the inefficiency.

Similarly "window dressing" has been observed- -stocks that performed well in a month or a quarter tend to do well on the last few days of that period-- it appears that fund managers were buying these stocks that had done well, so their portfolios would show good performers in them at reporting dates to investors.

You have to have a story about why these anomalies occur. The one I have tended to believe is that markets often see a "melt up" in the fourth quarter, just as manufacturers produce the most in that quarter, retailers make most of their money, etc.

You'd have to study all the bubbles known and their timing. For example the largest bubble in history in dollar terms was the US residential real estate bubble, and US housing prices essentially peaked in December 2006. But the crash did not become obvious until 2008.

Be warned with your friend. Amos Tversky noted this-- humans like stories (narrative), and will tell stories to explain things which are, in fact, random. Robert Shiller makes similar points.

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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by Lauretta » Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:42 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:26 am

There was the well established "January effect" - the outperformance of small cap stocks was concentrated in January.

This was tied to how portfolio managers work and also to tax loss selling (at the end of the previous year, thus creating bargains for investors in January).
Thanks for the interesting points :happy Just one thing on taxes and the January effect: I have come across a paper on the January effect studying the market in Australia, which had similar tax laws to the US, but a July-June tax year; the paper concludes that the relation between the U.S. tax year and the January seasonal may be more correlation than causation:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 5X83900302
Last edited by Lauretta on Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by Thesaints » Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:48 am

I’m pretty sure available data shows that crashes always happen before close of market of 12/31 on any given year.

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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by chevca » Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:49 am

Thesaints wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:48 am
I’m pretty sure available data shows that crashes always happen before close of market of 12/31 on any given year.
True fact. :happy

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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by Lauretta » Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:50 am

Thesaints wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:48 am
I’m pretty sure available data shows that crashes always happen before close of market of 12/31 on any given year.
That sounds quite a safe bet to make :wink: :happy
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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by Pinotage » Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:59 am

Lauretta wrote: my question is: does it make sense to you to look at a few past dates where a few special events (like crashes) happened in order to 'predict' the next one?
Nope

Lauretta wrote:Is that something people do in finance?
Yep

:sharebeer

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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by nisiprius » Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:59 am

I think bubbles and crashes are like building Jenga towers, or watching dirt being piled onto a huge mound, or snow piling up to the point of avalanche. Once it gets to the point where tiny things have the possibility of snowballing, the tiny thing that starts the avalanche could occur anywhere or at any place and it is not possible to predict the time or what specific thing will cause it.

I suspect part of the dynamics will be people with paper bitcoin fortunes actually trying to realize them... even by "taking a little money off the table..." and discovering that it's hard to sell their bitcoin. This is particularly true because I seriously doubt that very much bitcoin is currently being bought with the idea of using it for a transaction. I think most of it is being bought with the idea that "it will go up and I can sell it to a greater fool." If bitcoin were really like a currency, you could always say "Well, maybe it will be hard to find someone willing to pay me $1 million in fiat money, but, hey, I'll just buy a house with it."

It's easy to extrapolate current growth rates and calculate the year in which bitcoin will represent 99.9% of the world's assets "if this goes on." Then say "I don't believe this will happen" and therefore "this can't go on." Unfortunately, there's no way to make money--or even avoiding loss--on the basis of "this can't go on." Right now, people who are speculating in bitcoin are playing a game of chicken, and the people who, by luck or skill can guess which Jenga block that brings down the tower, will take money away from everybody else. But I say it's a game of luck. (Though with an opportunity for it not to be luck for those who actually have inside information; cue W. C. Fields. "Is this a game of chance?" Fields: "Not the way I play it, no.")

P.S. With regard to past "typical" bubbles, I would point to one interesting case with stocks. You will frequently see people talk about "the average length of a bear market" or "the course of a typical bear market." The statistics for such things usually shows that the 1929 crash lasted from 1929 through 1936, or six or seven years. That's because 1935 and 1936 were two of the best-ever years in the stock market, and by most measurements (price or total return, nominal-dollar or inflation-corrected) there were three months just around the end of 1936 when the stock market was just a skosh higher than it was in 1929. Unfortunately, a second crash occurred in 1937, which people mostly haven't heard about because it was so much smaller than 1929; but it was a 50% drop, as bad as 2008-2009. Because of the (accurate) detail that it just barely recovered at the end of 1936, 1929-1936 and 1937-1944 count as two back-to-back seven-year bear markets. But if things had only been slightly different, it would go into the averages as a single 14 or 15-year bear market. The point being: beware of "averages" of very rare, extreme, almost unique events.
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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by F150HD » Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:27 pm

Lauretta wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:52 am
likely date for a bitcoin crash
What I've been wondering.....there are companies accepting Bitcoin as payment. What happens to these companies (and ultimately the markets) when Bitcoin crashes...?

In Japan, more than 100,000 retail outlets gladly accept Bitcoin.

Companies Accepting Bitcoin


Image

In the last 2-months, Arizona, Illinois, Nevada, Montana and New Hampshire have all enacted favorable rulings regarding the use and acceptance of Bitcoin in their states. Steve Bullock, the governor of Montana recently approved a $416,000 grant for a Bitcoin Mining farm in the town of Missoula, MT. Countries, such as Japan, Norway, Mexico, Singapore, Australia, China, South Korea, and others have all begun integration of Bitcoin into their monetary system, alongside their fiat currency.

Last year, Canada became the first country to install Bitcoin ATMs. Since then, Europe has installed over 5,000 Bitcoin ATMs, with more to come. In the United States, Florida and California are in the forefront of Bitcoin ATM machine installations.

You can purchase anything from computer services, to pizza, real estate, a Tesla car, a Subway sandwich, airline tickets, women’s lingerie, or even manicures with Bitcoin. Amazon.com offers a 5% discount for any purchase made with Bitcoin.

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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by Lauretta » Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:33 pm

F150HD wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:27 pm
Amazon.com offers a 5% discount for any purchase made with Bitcoin.[/i]
Is this a parody or is it true? I understand Amazon does not accept Bitcoin!
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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by Lauretta » Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:33 pm

nisiprius wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:59 am
I think bubbles and crashes are like building Jenga towers, or watching dirt being piled onto a huge mound, or snow piling up to the point of avalanche. Once it gets to the point where tiny things have the possibility of snowballing, the tiny thing that starts the avalanche could occur anywhere or at any place and it is not possible to predict the time or what specific thing will cause it.

I suspect part of the dynamics will be people with paper bitcoin fortunes actually trying to realize them... even by "taking a little money off the table..." and discovering that it's hard to sell their bitcoin. This is particularly true because I seriously doubt that very much bitcoin is currently being bought with the idea of using it for a transaction. I think most of it is being bought with the idea that "it will go up and I can sell it to a greater fool." If bitcoin were really like a currency, you could always say "Well, maybe it will be hard to find someone willing to pay me $1 million in fiat money, but, hey, I'll just buy a house with it."

It's easy to extrapolate current growth rates and calculate the year in which bitcoin will represent 99.9% of the world's assets "if this goes on." Then say "I don't believe this will happen" and therefore "this can't go on." Unfortunately, there's no way to make money--or even avoiding loss--on the basis of "this can't go on." Right now, people who are speculating in bitcoin are playing a game of chicken, and the people who, by luck or skill can guess which Jenga block that brings down the tower, will take money away from everybody else. But I say it's a game of luck. (Though with an opportunity for it not to be luck for those who actually have inside information; cue W. C. Fields. "Is this a game of chance?" Fields: "Not the way I play it, no.")

P.S. With regard to past "typical" bubbles, I would point to one interesting case with stocks. You will frequently see people talk about "the average length of a bear market" or "the course of a typical bear market." The statistics for such things usually shows that the 1929 crash lasted from 1929 through 1936, or six or seven years. That's because 1935 and 1936 were two of the best-ever years in the stock market, and by most measurements (price or total return, nominal-dollar or inflation-corrected) there were three months just around the end of 1936 when the stock market was just a skosh higher than it was in 1929. Unfortunately, a second crash occurred in 1937, which people mostly haven't heard about because it was so much smaller than 1929; but it was a 50% drop, as bad as 2008-2009. Because of the (accurate) detail that it just barely recovered at the end of 1936, 1929-1936 and 1937-1944 count as two back-to-back seven-year bear markets. But if things had only been slightly different, it would go into the averages as a single 14 or 15-year bear market. The point being: beware of "averages" of very rare, extreme, almost unique events.
thanks for these interesting points! :happy
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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by Shallowpockets » Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:34 pm

I feel kind of successful with money also. So if you ask me about Bitcoin I can point out a few things also. Like your friend.

February. Sandhill cranes start their migration north.
July. Barbecue sales go up.
May 1915. The Lusitania sunk.
August 26, 1883. Krakatoa erupted.
September 20, 2107. I got my bathroom remodeled.

I think all these things have as much relevance to bitcoins crash as anything else.
About the only takeaway from the points posted from your friend are that they are all in the fall and winter months. Maybe Bitcoin is seasonable. When it crashes, buy and hold into the summer.

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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by nisiprius » Sun Dec 10, 2017 1:32 pm

F150HD wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:27 pm
You can purchase anything from computer services, to pizza, real estate, a Tesla car, a Subway sandwich, airline tickets, women’s lingerie, or even manicures with Bitcoin. Amazon.com offers a 5% discount for any purchase made with Bitcoin.[/i]
No bitcoin fan has yet chosen to comment on my attempt to find out the truth of buying sandwiches at Subway with bitcoin. My detailed posting is here. As nearly as I can tell, and I am willing to be educated on this, it is believed that someone can use bitcoin to buy sandwiches at exactly three of the 45,000 Subway locations worldwide: one in Buenos Aires, one in Moscow, and one at 3337 Hamilton Boulevard, Allentown, PA. All the news items about it are dated 2013. It's not even clear whether it still does, but at the moment they are not answering their phone. I do not see bitcoin listed as a payment option anywhere on any Subway website, not even the one in Allentown, and the description in the 2013 stories makes it clear that, at that time, it was not really "Subway" accepting them, but a store manager or employer accepting them personally from customers, personally converting to dollars them on his personal tablet with his personal account. And the transaction described in the story did not go smoothly.

As for "real estate," please clarify. I imagine you're talking about RE/MAX London, but, again, there are old press releases about RE/MAX partnering with GoCoin, but you could never "buy real estate" that way, only pay rent for rental properties; and it was a "pilot program." If you can find anything dated 2017 that shows it is still in operation, please show it.

believe that stories of widespread acceptance of bitcoin, for ordinary real-world consumer transactions, is often exaggerated by bitcoin enthusiasts... and that many of "so-and-so accepts" stories are old, represent small experiments or pilot projects or the individual efforts of enthusiasts at one location... but have never been double-checked to see whether the places that "accept bitcoin" still do so routinely, and whether the volume of transactions amounts to anything significant. One bitcoin enthusiast who works or operates one Subway agrees to convert bitcoin personally for customers, a few dozen drive hundreds of miles to Allentown to show their support by buying something, and in an optimistic game of "telephone" it becomes "Subway accepts bitcoin."

I have a factual question. Subway does say it accepts PayPal, Subway gift cards, American Express, Visa, MasterCard, Discover, Diners' Club, and "JCB." I don't really know what JCB is, exactly. I think it's just a credit card, headquartered in Japan, that is slowly spreading throughout the U.S. I don't think it has anything to do with bitcoin. But if JCB is, in fact, a way to pay with bitcoin--that is, if it is a credit card that has special bitcoin-friendly features that make it easy for people with bitcoin to somehow use their JCB card to make bitcoin purchases--pay in dollars with your JCB card and then pay your JCB bill with bitcoin, for example--then that would be very interesting. Is JCB in fact, a bitcoin-centered credit card?
Last edited by nisiprius on Sun Dec 10, 2017 1:45 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by willthrill81 » Sun Dec 10, 2017 1:35 pm

oldcomputerguy wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:13 am
Nobody know nuthin’. Predictions of the exact time frame of the next crash (Bitcoin or anything else) are worthless.
+1

I find it highly amusing that many on this forum love to spout about the folly of active investing and trying to time the market, but then in the next breath they call Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general a huge bubble that will shortly 'pop' (i.e. they know something that the market doesn't). :D

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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by nisiprius » Sun Dec 10, 2017 1:57 pm

F150HD wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:27 pm
...Companies Accepting Bitcoin...
Image

I thought I would do a reality check on the idea that Paypal "accepts BItcoins." After all, Subway and many places do accept PayPal. Can I load bitcoin into my PayPal account and then use PayPal to pay Subway in dollars? That is, does PayPal recognize bitcoin as a currency and will it do bitcoin <-> dollar conversion automatically?

Image

Apparently not.

In what way, exactly, is PayPal a company that "accepts Bitcoins?"
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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by Lauretta » Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:18 pm

nisiprius wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 1:57 pm
F150HD wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:27 pm
...Companies Accepting Bitcoin...
Image

I thought I would do a reality check on the idea that Paypal "accepts BItcoins." After all, Subway and many places do accept PayPal. Can I load bitcoin into my PayPal account and then use PayPal to pay Subway in dollars? That is, does PayPal recognize bitcoin as a currency and will it do bitcoin <-> dollar conversion automatically?

Image

Apparently not.

In what way, exactly, is PayPal a company that "accepts Bitcoins?"
what about Amazon, also quoted in the post you're commening on? I didn't think they accepted it (and give a 5% discount!) Is it true?
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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by MP123 » Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:25 pm

Lauretta wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:18 pm
what about Amazon, also quoted in the post you're commening on? I didn't think they accepted it (and give a 5% discount!) Is it true?
Amazon doesn't take bitcoin at this point. I wonder if any of the merchants mentioned in that post actually do?

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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by veggivet » Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:50 pm

Isn't it common knowledge that Bitcoin will crash on February 28, 2018, at 2:38 EST?

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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by willthrill81 » Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:08 pm

veggivet wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:50 pm
Isn't it common knowledge that Bitcoin will crash on February 28, 2018, at 2:38 EST?
You know something that the market doesn't? :wink:
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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by aristotelian » Sun Dec 10, 2017 4:46 pm

Seems just as reasonable as the speculation of Bitcoin going up.

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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by technovelist » Sun Dec 10, 2017 4:52 pm

Thesaints wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:48 am
I’m pretty sure available data shows that crashes always happen before close of market of 12/31 on any given year.
That's amazing! Can I subscribe to your newsletter? :moneybag
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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by Nate79 » Sun Dec 10, 2017 5:05 pm

Bitcoin can't crash. You guys just don't understand the technology :oops:
LOL.

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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by Pale Horse » Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:36 am

Nate79 wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 5:05 pm
Bitcoin can't crash. You guys just don't understand the technology :oops:
LOL.
Why not? Pray tell.

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nisiprius
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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by nisiprius » Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:18 am

bool UndoWriteToDisk(const CBlockUndo& blockundo, CDiskBlockPos& pos, const uint256& hashBlock, const CMessageHeader::MessageStartChars& messageStart)
{
// Retrieve secret encrypted crash date from storage
CAutoFile fileout(OpenUndoFile(pos), SER_DISK, CLIENT_VERSION);
if (fileout.IsNull())
return error("%s: OpenUndoFile failed", __func__);

// If current date is not crash date, then carry on
unsigned int nSize = GetSerializeSize(fileout, blockundo);
fileout << FLATDATA(messageStart) << nSize;

// Exchange all bitcoins to Venezuelan bolivars (hardest currency in world)
long fileOutPos = ftell(fileout.Get());
if (fileOutPos < 0)
return error("%s: ftell failed", __func__);
pos.nPos = (unsigned int)fileOutPos;
fileout << blockundo;

// Wire bolivars to secret mountain hideaway in Barrancabermeja
CHashWriter hasher(SER_GETHASH, PROTOCOL_VERSION);
hasher << hashBlock;
hasher << blockundo;
fileout << hasher.GetHash();

return true;
}
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by technovelist » Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:28 am

nisiprius wrote:
Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:18 am
bool UndoWriteToDisk(const CBlockUndo& blockundo, CDiskBlockPos& pos, const uint256& hashBlock, const CMessageHeader::MessageStartChars& messageStart)
{
// Retrieve secret encrypted crash date from storage
CAutoFile fileout(OpenUndoFile(pos), SER_DISK, CLIENT_VERSION);
if (fileout.IsNull())
return error("%s: OpenUndoFile failed", __func__);

// If current date is not crash date, then carry on
unsigned int nSize = GetSerializeSize(fileout, blockundo);
fileout << FLATDATA(messageStart) << nSize;

// Exchange all bitcoins to Venezuelan bolivars (hardest currency in world)
long fileOutPos = ftell(fileout.Get());
if (fileOutPos < 0)
return error("%s: ftell failed", __func__);
pos.nPos = (unsigned int)fileOutPos;
fileout << blockundo;

// Wire bolivars to secret mountain hideaway in Barrancabermeja
CHashWriter hasher(SER_GETHASH, PROTOCOL_VERSION);
hasher << hashBlock;
hasher << blockundo;
fileout << hasher.GetHash();

return true;
}
That's so wrong.

Of course, I mean using a return code for a fatal error instead of throwing an exception! :sharebeer
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.

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sergeant
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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by sergeant » Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:46 pm

I see no pattern in the OP.
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SEAworld9
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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by SEAworld9 » Mon Dec 11, 2017 5:09 pm

nisiprius wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 1:32 pm
F150HD wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:27 pm
You can purchase anything from computer services, to pizza, real estate, a Tesla car, a Subway sandwich, airline tickets, women’s lingerie, or even manicures with Bitcoin. Amazon.com offers a 5% discount for any purchase made with Bitcoin.[/i]
No bitcoin fan has yet chosen to comment on my attempt to find out the truth of buying sandwiches at Subway with bitcoin. My detailed posting is here. As nearly as I can tell, and I am willing to be educated on this, it is believed that someone can use bitcoin to buy sandwiches at exactly three of the 45,000 Subway locations worldwide: one in Buenos Aires, one in Moscow, and one at 3337 Hamilton Boulevard, Allentown, PA. All the news items about it are dated 2013. It's not even clear whether it still does, but at the moment they are not answering their phone. I do not see bitcoin listed as a payment option anywhere on any Subway website, not even the one in Allentown, and the description in the 2013 stories makes it clear that, at that time, it was not really "Subway" accepting them, but a store manager or employer accepting them personally from customers, personally converting to dollars them on his personal tablet with his personal account. And the transaction described in the story did not go smoothly.

As for "real estate," please clarify. I imagine you're talking about RE/MAX London, but, again, there are old press releases about RE/MAX partnering with GoCoin, but you could never "buy real estate" that way, only pay rent for rental properties; and it was a "pilot program." If you can find anything dated 2017 that shows it is still in operation, please show it.

believe that stories of widespread acceptance of bitcoin, for ordinary real-world consumer transactions, is often exaggerated by bitcoin enthusiasts... and that many of "so-and-so accepts" stories are old, represent small experiments or pilot projects or the individual efforts of enthusiasts at one location... but have never been double-checked to see whether the places that "accept bitcoin" still do so routinely, and whether the volume of transactions amounts to anything significant. One bitcoin enthusiast who works or operates one Subway agrees to convert bitcoin personally for customers, a few dozen drive hundreds of miles to Allentown to show their support by buying something, and in an optimistic game of "telephone" it becomes "Subway accepts bitcoin."

I have a factual question. Subway does say it accepts PayPal, Subway gift cards, American Express, Visa, MasterCard, Discover, Diners' Club, and "JCB." I don't really know what JCB is, exactly. I think it's just a credit card, headquartered in Japan, that is slowly spreading throughout the U.S. I don't think it has anything to do with bitcoin. But if JCB is, in fact, a way to pay with bitcoin--that is, if it is a credit card that has special bitcoin-friendly features that make it easy for people with bitcoin to somehow use their JCB card to make bitcoin purchases--pay in dollars with your JCB card and then pay your JCB bill with bitcoin, for example--then that would be very interesting. Is JCB in fact, a bitcoin-centered credit card?
i'm not sure (well, i hope not) if any of the posters using the brands names are implying that every location does (if they do they're wrong). yes, there are franchises within each of those brands who do accept it as payment (or have tried it). the franchise owners can pick how they receive payment over/above/in addition to a core set. here is one current example of a major brand who does accept it: https://support.microsoft.com/en-us/hel ... th-bitcoin. if you want to easily spend your bitcoin, you can also get something like bitpay to get a bitcoin-backed debit card that is accepted anywhere in visa's network.

but yes, the places that don't accept bitcoin today outnumber those who do. i dont think anyone is arguing that and i dont think anyone is saying you can use it everywhere (again, if they do, they're wrong). but this also isn't the only barometer at this stage of its value. is it becoming more widely adopted? yes. is it becoming more widely accepted? yes. will it survive? maybe. will it go down in flames? maybe. as with any emerging technology, it takes time to rollout and to make it to maturity and some don't. just look at paypal; here's one of the many threads from earlier years filled with dissent about paypal, how unsafe it is, how they collect your info, how they are unscrupulous, and so on: viewtopic.php?t=21586. fast forward 9 years from that thread and it's is a generally accept payment platform and the only way to electronically donate to bogleheads is through... paypal.

this isn't the best forum to discuss bitcoin as it doesn't fit within the charter of the site, and most responses will come from this perspective which is understandable. the same general skepticism exists here for all emerging technologies, products, investment vehicles, and more that aren't low cost index funds, toyota camry's, etc. just plug in your favorite in to the search and see the tone of the comments. that's not meant as an insult, but rather a statement of the status quo that exists on this site. is some of the criticism valid? of course. is some of it not? of course here as well. are the bulk of responses to be expected in nature given the site? yes.

if anything i would think that people here would be rooting for emerging technologies on the whole to succeed or for there to be at least a few home runs as the companies they own in index funds are exploring and investing in many of these areas. it's how they build or improve products and services that create revenue and profits equating to future growth, and hopefully increase the price of the indexes they are part of.

ps. JCB is a credit card brand that runs on discover's network.

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Johnnie
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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by Johnnie » Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:35 pm

No one has mentioned the most obvious date: April 1. :twisted:
Last edited by Johnnie on Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by technovelist » Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:36 pm

Johnnie wrote:
Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:35 pm
No one has mentioined the most obvious date: April 1. :twisted:
I'm pretty sure that would be the date when the entire world announces that Bitcoin will be the only acceptable currency. :mrgreen:
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.

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F150HD
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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by F150HD » Sat Dec 23, 2017 9:21 am

nisiprius wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 1:57 pm
I thought I would do a reality check on the idea that Paypal "accepts BItcoins." After all, Subway and many places do accept PayPal. Can I load bitcoin into my PayPal account and then use PayPal to pay Subway in dollars? That is, does PayPal recognize bitcoin as a currency and will it do bitcoin <-> dollar conversion automatically?

........ Apparently not.

In what way, exactly, is PayPal a company that "accepts Bitcoins?"
I'm on your side. Though....noticed on Craigslist autos- see red circle below:

Image

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celia
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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by celia » Sat Dec 23, 2017 10:54 am

Lauretta wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:52 am
Wall Street 1929 - September 3rd
UK Tech mania 1999 - December 31st
US Tech mania 2000 - March 16th
First, you need to start with the correct dates:
Wall Street--October 24, 1929
Dot-com--March 10, 2000

Here are some more crash dates:
Stock Market Crashes
Play around with this data and when you see a pattern, please share it with us first!
Last edited by celia on Sat Dec 23, 2017 10:58 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by bob60014 » Sat Dec 23, 2017 10:55 am

This ship has sailed!!!

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nisiprius
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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by nisiprius » Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:43 am

F150HD wrote:
Sat Dec 23, 2017 9:21 am
...I'm on your side. Though....noticed on Craigslist autos- see red circle below:... [image of a Craigslist listing for a car, with an unchecked checkbox for "cryptocurrency OK."]
Yes, that's mildly interesting, but only as a fashion statement, since Craigslist itself isn't accepting cryptocurrency... and since the listing you posted is for a seller who doesn't. It doesn't take much commitment for Craigslist to add a checkbox in the name of being kewl.

Now, since a currency is a medium of exchange, a unit of account, and a store of value, if you were able to show me a listing of an item for sale priced in Bitcoin--that is to say, if Craigslist not only provided a checkbox for cryptocurrency but allowed sellers to set their price in BTC, then I would have an incremental change of mind about the status of Bitcoin.

If any cryptocurrency fans are reading this, can you find and post a Craigslist listing, that isn't your own, showing a seller who accepts cryptocurrency in payment for a car? Or, alternatively, can you find a widely-recognized major eCommerce website that can display its prices in Bitcoin? I'm looking right now at Overstock.com, probably among the biggest Bitcoin supporters, and I am seeing prices in dollars with no apparent way to choose Bitcoin pricing as an option.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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Lauretta
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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by Lauretta » Sat Dec 23, 2017 1:35 pm

celia wrote:
Sat Dec 23, 2017 10:54 am
Lauretta wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:52 am
Wall Street 1929 - September 3rd
UK Tech mania 1999 - December 31st
US Tech mania 2000 - March 16th
First, you need to start with the correct dates:
Wall Street--October 24, 1929
Dot-com--March 10, 2000

Here are some more crash dates:
Stock Market Crashes
Play around with this data and when you see a pattern, please share it with us first!
ok I'll let you know if I find a pattern. :wink: though to be fair the link you provided shows a graph in which the market peak was indeed at the beginning of September 1929; even though the text gives a date of 24 October...
Btw I have bought some Bitcoin for the very first time yesterday when it crashed (about 0.2% of my liquid worth :D - I must admit that it was simply because of FOMO) so I don't really believe in looking at these past dates to predict crashes.
When everyone is thinking the same, no one is thinking at all

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F150HD
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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by F150HD » Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:01 pm

:|

Article: Dallas Mavericks are the latest pro team to accept cryptocurrency

Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban has confirmed (both to Bloomberg and on Twitter) that his basketball team will start accepting bitcoin and ethereum for ticket purchases during the 2018-2019 NBA season. It'll also accept tokens from companies with "business relationships."

Jags4186
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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by Jags4186 » Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:28 am

Bitcoin is currently 50% off its peak...but still up 1000% since January 1, 2017. Is this a crash or a bubble still? Who knows but it’s fun to watch from the sidelines. :beer

scottinmet
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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by scottinmet » Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:47 am

Jags4186 wrote:
Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:28 am
Bitcoin is currently 50% off its peak...but still up 1000% since January 1, 2017. Is this a crash or a bubble still? Who knows but it’s fun to watch from the sidelines. :beer
It's looking brutal for bitcoin right now. Maybe it'll go on a tear the rest of the year, but I still don't see the value of bitcoin and I wouldn't buy it even if it was at parity with the dollar. I would feel more comfortable with lotto tickets, at least I know the odds.

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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by oldcomputerguy » Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:00 am

F150HD wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:27 pm
You can purchase anything from computer services, to pizza, real estate, a Tesla car, a Subway sandwich, airline tickets, women’s lingerie, or even manicures with Bitcoin. Amazon.com offers a 5% discount for any purchase made with Bitcoin.[/i]
Given that, I wonder just how one would go about paying for an Amazon purchase with Bitcoin? According to their web site, they don't list Bitcoin as a payment method.
It’s taken me a lot of years, but I’ve come around to this: If you’re dumb, surround yourself with smart people. And if you’re smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you.


Jags4186
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Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Post by Jags4186 » Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:13 am

RRAAYY3 wrote:
Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:02 am
http://nordic.businessinsider.com/the-s ... useless--/

"USELESS"
Stop buying Bitcoin! It's USELESS!!! Come buy my alternative, Bitcoin Cash! :shock:

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