2018 Hedge Fund contest

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 42397
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 5:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Post by LadyGeek » Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:19 pm

It's the same benchmark we've used since Norbert Schlenker started the contest. For continuity, I recommend using the same position and name.
To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

veggivet
Posts: 234
Joined: Sun Jan 25, 2015 1:07 pm
Location: New England

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Post by veggivet » Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:18 pm

Oops...a day late. My apologies to our highly valued shareholders. I was out skiing today, and was researching stocks while I was on the lift. I am changing the name of the fund from the Mirage Fund to the Day Late and a Dollar Short Fund. Hopefully, we'll have the same stellar results we did last year, even if we're not included in the official tally.

LONG: NVDA, TELL, VRX

SHORT: JCP, M, APRN

Quantumfizz
Posts: 7
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2017 9:26 pm

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Quantumfizz » Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:18 pm

Name: Maximum Volatility

Longs
AEROHIVE NETWORKS INC HIVE
CALAVO GROWERS INC CVGW
EXTREME NETWORKS INC EXTR

Shorts
GENERAL ELECTRIC CO GE
TESLA INC TSLA
ALNYLAM PHARMACEUTICALS ALNY

BackOfTheNet
Posts: 153
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2009 9:24 pm

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Post by BackOfTheNet » Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:18 am

LadyGeek wrote:
Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:19 pm
It's the same benchmark we've used since Norbert Schlenker started the contest. For continuity, I recommend using the same position and name.
Great, I had no idea. I added it back.

doingwell
Posts: 14
Joined: Wed Jun 14, 2017 7:52 pm
Location: MA

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Post by doingwell » Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:32 pm

BackOfTheNet wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:31 am

Opening prices will be based on Jan 8th close.
I think the Google sheet is currently be set up with the opening price as the close on Jan 5 rather than Jan 8. And I swear I didn’t notice this because it makes a huge change in my favor. :D

Tanelorn
Posts: 1379
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 9:35 pm

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:13 pm

Thank you, doingwell, for pointing out the formula mistake. I've updated the spreadsheet to reflect Monday, Jan 8th, closing prices as the starting point for the contest.

Several fund managers inadvertently included ineligible stocks, which have been removed individually from those portfolios. Common offenders included BABA, YHOO, SNAP, VRX, and FENX that I noticed so far. If anyone notices any other non-Russell stocks, please let us know and they will be removed accordingly.

In light of using Monday's closing price used and having reviewed their portfolios, I also included our two late entries from Monday night - veggivet and Quantumfizz. As they were entered before the market opened today and since their picks are flat or slightly down so far, I see no disadvantage to other contestants to including them. Further late entries at this point will not be included.
Last edited by Tanelorn on Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Tanelorn
Posts: 1379
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 9:35 pm

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:45 pm

The new year's contest is off with a bang! You can see the results below:

Current Standings - 2018 hedge fund contest

whodidtante lost no time taking a fast 8% gain with his appropriately named Bet Against Eddie fund, shorting Sears (SHLD) and named after the hedge fund manager turned retail CEO. Close on his heels is MidwestMike, up 7.5% with his no longer appropriately named Forty Thieves fund, originally long Alibaba but switched to a single long bet on Intrexon (XON), a biotech play, since BABA was not eligible for the contest (and is flat currently, so he made a great pick so far).

Lastly, I'm disappointed that none of our esteemed fund managers had the foresight to see how Kodak (KODK) was going to move into blockchain photo technology, as they announced today they would be offering their own Kodak Coin ICO (ala an IPO). Frankly, this seems unlikely to accomplish much but certainly has propelled their stock up 300% as of this evening. Congratulations to the Kodak execs and their stock options! They won't be left behind the technology curve, processing Polaroids while their firm slouches towards bankruptcy like last time around.

User avatar
MichaelRpdx
Posts: 273
Joined: Sat Feb 27, 2010 7:18 pm
Location: Portland, Oregon
Contact:

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Post by MichaelRpdx » Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:15 pm

[edit to delete]
Last edited by MichaelRpdx on Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Be Appropriate && Follow Your Curiosity

Mudpuppy
Posts: 5588
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2011 2:26 am
Location: Sunny California

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Mudpuppy » Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:08 am

Tanelorn wrote:
Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:45 pm
Lastly, I'm disappointed that none of our esteemed fund managers had the foresight to see how Kodak (KODK) was going to move into blockchain photo technology, as they announced today they would be offering their own Kodak Coin ICO (ala an IPO). Frankly, this seems unlikely to accomplish much but certainly has propelled their stock up 300% as of this evening. Congratulations to the Kodak execs and their stock options! They won't be left behind the technology curve, processing Polaroids while their firm slouches towards bankruptcy like last time around.
You know, I will be a little irked but not surprised (so "disappointed" in the parental sense of the word) if all this speculation over cryptocurrency negatively affects the overall stock market once its bubble bursts.

aristotelian
Posts: 3441
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:05 pm

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Post by aristotelian » Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:14 am

Tanelorn wrote:
Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:45 pm

Lastly, I'm disappointed that none of our esteemed fund managers had the foresight to see how Kodak (KODK) was going to move into blockchain photo technology, as they announced today they would be offering their own Kodak Coin ICO (ala an IPO). Frankly, this seems unlikely to accomplish much but certainly has propelled their stock up 300% as of this evening. Congratulations to the Kodak execs and their stock options! They won't be left behind the technology curve, processing Polaroids while their firm slouches towards bankruptcy like last time around.
I don't think they're in the Russell any more...but I thought their reasoning for going into blockchain seems much better than Long Island Iced Tea and the Vape guys.

paper200
Posts: 259
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 11:40 am

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Post by paper200 » Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:06 pm

Tanelorn,

The ENDO stock price seems to be incorrect in my portfolio can you please correct it.
Thnks
Having freedom, food and roof is being 90% lucky in life and so is index investing. So, don't let the remaining 10% bother you.

Tanelorn
Posts: 1379
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 9:35 pm

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:23 pm

paper200 wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:19 pm
Bit-Illusion Gas Fund.

Motto: Bits-in-gas-out

Long: ENDO; FLXN
Short: KERX; TSLA
What company do you mean by ENDO? I don't see one with that ticker in the Russell file.

paper200
Posts: 259
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 11:40 am

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Post by paper200 » Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:08 pm

Ooops my bad. I meant Endo international plc. Ticker is endp not endo.

Thanks
Having freedom, food and roof is being 90% lucky in life and so is index investing. So, don't let the remaining 10% bother you.

honduranhurricane
Posts: 56
Joined: Tue Oct 18, 2016 10:18 pm
Location: boston, ma

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Post by honduranhurricane » Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:48 pm

Hard to believe I am actually doing this so soon, but can I close my short on SVU. 22+% works for me.

Tanelorn
Posts: 1379
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 9:35 pm

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:03 am

Only a week into our contest and already there has been some significant moves.

Current Standings - 2018 hedge fund contest

On the upside:
goblue100 currently has the lead with a quick 22% gain on his sole short WINS, a sketchy Chinese stock known for its high volatility and whose extended halts and fights over their exchange listing were covered extensively in last year's contest. He had picked this as part of his fund last year, and has bet bigger on it this time around. MidwestMike is in a strong 2nd with 16% gains on biotech XON, mentioned earlier, while FinancialDave's big bet on long JC Penney is paying off nicely at +9% as retail fears abate in the wake of good holiday shopping results.

Others of note:
Water had also made a brief appearance in the top ranks, currently still 5th, when his biotech vaccine pick NVAX saw brief gains of almost 80%. While this is only one of his three positions, his fund was up over 20% as their drug showed preliminary promise in a recent more limited trial. The stock is now "only" up 20% as of the weekend, but could easily see more upside if things go their way. NVAX stock has fallen dramatically over the past several years as they had failed to live up to high expectations and vaccine trial results were inconclusive; NVAX has claimed a couple last place entries in this contest over prior years if I recall correctly and is still off 80-90% from its all time highs.

On the downside:
The short Sears crowd, which includes almost 20% of our entries, saw significant volatility this past week and will no doubt see more to come. SHLD was down 8-9% early on but rallied and is now up 5% and the shorts are down accordingly. Those betting against JC Penney also faired poorly, +9% currently. Lastly, on a personal note, we at Tanelorn capital reflect that we seem to be, as we say in the business, "early" to our short Omnito (OMNT) position, which has risen nearly 20% in just the first week and putting us in last place by a 2x margin over the next least lucky contestant. Surely at this higher valuation, OMNT will be an even more compelling short and we are waiting patiently for their fundamental lack of value to catch up to their stock price. "Early perhaps, but not yet wrong".

Bookkeeping notes:
@aristotelian yes, KODK is in the Russell, although I suspect they were kicked out for a while during their bankrupt period.
@paper200 ok, the spreadsheet reflects the correct ticker for ENDP now.
@honduranhurricane I'll close out short SVU short as of the next day's close (1/16 given the holiday). Congrats on your good short!

azanon
Posts: 1636
Joined: Mon Nov 07, 2011 10:34 am
Location: Little Rock, AR
Contact:

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Post by azanon » Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:09 am

Tanelorn wrote:
Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:03 am
Lastly, on a personal note, we at Tanelorn capital reflect that we seem to be, as we say in the business, "early" to our short Omnito (OMNT) position, which has risen nearly 20% in just the first week and putting us in last place by a 2x margin over the next least lucky contestant. Surely at this higher valuation, OMNT will be an even more compelling short and we are waiting patiently for their fundamental lack of value to catch up to their stock price. "Early perhaps, but not yet wrong".
Well, I for one am a believer. Your firm's past results couldn't possibly be just luck! And if you guys ever go public, I'll pay the 2 and 20 fee, because what's 2% when your down 15% so fast. Nothing at all! :D

Jeff Albertson
Posts: 437
Joined: Sat Apr 06, 2013 7:11 pm
Location: Springfield

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Jeff Albertson » Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:19 pm

Image

https://www.economist.com/news/finance- ... their-high
Clients may think they will be able to pick the best hedge-fund managers, not the average ones. But one group of professionals—fund-of-fund managers—tries to do just that. They did manage to pip the average asset-weighted return of hedge funds in 2017, but failed to do so in any of the previous four years. If the experts cannot manage to pick the winners, why should a pension fund or endowment be able to manage the feat?
Good Luck!

User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 42397
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 5:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Post by LadyGeek » Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:42 pm

If you want dive into this further, see the: Callan Periodic Table of Hedge Fund Strategy Returns (printed pages 13 and 17, pages 14 and 18 by Adobe's count).

It's in the wiki: Callan periodic table of investment returns, under "External links" --> Periodic Tables

My "All in the same boat" market research team may or may not have used this chart as part of our low-cost research effort.
To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 42397
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 5:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Post by LadyGeek » Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:03 pm

Revised for 2018, the hedge fund and Bogleheads (S&P 500) contests are in the wiki: Bogleheads® contests
To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

Post Reply